Post your comment or question about the English Leaders’ Debate.
The latest CPAC-Nanos tracking has the Harper Tories continuing to enjoy an 11 point lead over the Dion Liberals. Support for the BQ in Quebec continues to incrementally move up. Of note, on the best PM front, Harper leads by 15 points (ahead of Jack Layton) but the last week has seen a steady slide in Harper’s best PM numbers from a high of almost 40% to 33%.
The French debate last night featured no knock-out punches. Duceppe, not surprisingly, did well. The four-on-one format led to a natural disadvantage for Stephen Harper and it seemed his strategy was to get through the debate unscathed, which he did. Elizabeth May showed some pep and command of the facts. Dion did better than expected and I thought Layton did well also. Nothing occurred last night, in my opinion, which would fundamentally change the shape of the race in Quebec.
Generally, I thought last night was more of a skirmish than a battle.
This evening, I would expect that Harper will don his “905 voter” mantle and to be more proactive generally. Also, I expect that Canadians will be watching Stephane Dion to see how well he performs and how well he is able to get his message out.
Tune in to a special debate edition of “Nik on the Numbers” on Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC. If you have any questions regarding our tracking or polling in general you post them on my blog (Nik on the Numbers). I will be answering your questions live on the air.
Every Thursday, Nanos will release weekly regional numbers to see how party support fares at the provincial and regional levels (based on a five day track). The ten regions are Atlantic Canada, Montreal, the Rest of Quebec, Toronto and the GTA, South Western Ontario, Northern and Eastern Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC Lower Mainland and the Rest of BC. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 30, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,040, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37 (+1)
- Liberal Party 26 (NC)
- NDP 19 (-1)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (-1)
- Undecided 13% (+2)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 33% (-2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 15% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 5% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 16% (+1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 95 (+3)
- Jack Layton 60 (+11)
- Stephane Dion 31 (-22)
- Elizabeth May 18 (NC)
- Gilles Duceppe 14 (-5)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
English debates will tell, Harper needs to survive, then breakout of vote on ele... more
fortescue (Ontario) 02 Oct 13:59
Nik, A Question for the CPAC program. Stephen Harper appears to be taking a lai... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 02 Oct 14:57
Nik, I find it fascinating following your daily insight- and look forward to the... more
johnacam (Ontario) 02 Oct 14:08
English debates will tell, Harper needs to survive, then breakout of vote on ele... more
fortescue (Ontario) 02 Oct 13:59
I personally find the results of the Ipsos survey to be suspect. I don't underst... more
Darryl (Ontario) 02 Oct 14:33
I thought the new format was dreadful. There were no opening and closing stateme... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 02 Oct 14:47
Comments
fortescue
English debates will tell, Harper needs to survive, then breakout of vote on election day will decide if its a majority
[updated Thu Oct 02 13:59:56 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 13:59
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
johnacam
Nik,
I find it fascinating following your daily insight- and look forward to the regional insight tonight. Anyhow quick question- page one of the Oct 2nd polling (last night Oct. 1st) has the tories in Western Canada down from 45 to 41, while on the chart on page two it has them up to 47. Which one should we look at?
Also, any comments you could give on explanations for the drop with the Tories in Atlantic Canada would be interesting. I know you said it has been volatile, but it seems to be a trend.
Thanks,
John
Toronto, Ont.
[updated Thu Oct 02 14:08:20 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 14:08
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
I thought the new format was dreadful. There were no opening and closing statements that give each leader an opportunity to state clearly their party positions. What was to be a debate on the economy did not allow each leader sufficient time to explain a complex subject. There was much rudeness and interrupting when some were trying to speak. In general, it was hardly a "debate" and very was disappointing.
[updated Thu Oct 02 14:47:56 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 14:47
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Jean-Marc
Although there were no knock-out punches, Dion came close when he succintly criticized Harpers autocratic and virulent partisan leadership with a series of concrete examples. Overall Dion's performance exceeded expectations and this has been picked up by the Ipso-Reid poll. Duceppe was true to form but Harper, wanting to demonstrate coolness under fire, appear disengaged.
However I must agree with Nik that this performance is unlikely to alter the shape and the results in Quebec. The Tories dream of finding their majority in Quebec has now vanished --this was a real possibility at the beginning of the campaign. The Bloc losses will be minimal. They will win a majority of Quebec seats. The Tories will keep their stronghold around Quebec City; the Liberal will hold on to the seats on the Island of Montreal and the NDP will keep Outremont.
The second debate has the potential to shift the race if Dion is able to repeat his performance in English... Watch out for May. She is very comfortable with the format although her French is poor.
Thanks
[updated Thu Oct 02 14:50:56 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 14:50
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
Nik, A Question for the CPAC program.
Stephen Harper appears to be taking a laid back role in the debates and not being too aggressive when he is attacked by the four opposition parties. Will this softer approach work for him or should he have been more aggressive and assertive?
[updated Thu Oct 02 14:57:00 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 14:57
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Liberalis
If Harper manages to hold on and win a minority,and that's still a maybe, what will his future be?
He will be saddled with a reputation for calling an unnecessary election that proved nothing.
And, if Dion hangs in and comes closer he won't be dumped but would be in a pretty good position.
[updated Thu Oct 02 20:33:26 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 20:33
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Russell McOrmond
Jack Layton mentioned the word "Copyright" last night in passing. While I wish there was a debate about this important legislation that will define the shape our Canada's participation (or not) in the new economy, nothing happened. I can hope for something tonight, but I'm not going to hold my breath.
It is one of those areas of policy where you can learn quite a bit about how connected the leaders are to the possible youth vote, given this is an issue older politicians don't understand but that the youth are quite engaged in.
http://digitalcopyright.ca
[updated Thu Oct 02 20:41:54 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 20:41
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
deltondaigle
I strongly suspect that the Greens have the softest support of all the parties. Nik do you have estimates of second choices for Green supporters and have you modeled turnout probability by party, and if so does that get factored into your weighting estimates for the daily tracking polls?
[updated Thu Oct 02 20:51:23 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 20:51
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mr.Wizard
NiK, will Stephen Harper be looking to convince undecideds tonight or will they be trying to steal votes from the others at the debate? Since he has them around the table and the whole country is watching which does he try to do?
[updated Thu Oct 02 20:53:30 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 20:53
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.