The first night of tracking since the plagiarism issue hit the campaign shows no initial significant impact on Conservative ballot support. The Tories still maintain a ten point margin over the Liberals. It may take a few days to understand the true impact, if any, of the plagiarism story and the effect it will have on the dynamic of this week’s leadership debates.
Of note, Harper’s trust advantage has eroded in the last two nights. For most of the campaign Harper has had a significant advantage over the other federal leaders on trust, competence and vision. Although, Harper has retained his advantage on competence and vision, perceptions related to trust have eroded and there is now a statistical tie between Harper, Layton and Dion on the daily CPAC-Nanos trust measure. Also of note, Layton’s daily leadership score dropped yesterday, likely a result of the focus on the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Tune in to an early edition of Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 6 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at Nanos Research or chat about our polls on Nik’s blog at Nik on the Numbers.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 29, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,065, MoE ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 36 (-1)
- Liberal Party 26 (NC)
- NDP 20 (NC)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 9% (+1)
- Undecided 11% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 35% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 15% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 5% (+1)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 15% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 92 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 53 (+10)
- Jack Layton 49 (-10)
- Gilles Duceppe 19 (+3)
- Elizabeth May 18 (-2)
What do you think?
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard