The first night of tracking since the plagiarism issue hit the campaign shows no initial significant impact on Conservative ballot support. The Tories still maintain a ten point margin over the Liberals. It may take a few days to understand the true impact, if any, of the plagiarism story and the effect it will have on the dynamic of this week’s leadership debates.
Of note, Harper’s trust advantage has eroded in the last two nights. For most of the campaign Harper has had a significant advantage over the other federal leaders on trust, competence and vision. Although, Harper has retained his advantage on competence and vision, perceptions related to trust have eroded and there is now a statistical tie between Harper, Layton and Dion on the daily CPAC-Nanos trust measure. Also of note, Layton’s daily leadership score dropped yesterday, likely a result of the focus on the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Tune in to an early edition of Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 6 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at Nanos Research or chat about our polls on Nik’s blog at Nik on the Numbers.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 29, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,065, MoE ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 36 (-1)
- Liberal Party 26 (NC)
- NDP 20 (NC)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 9% (+1)
- Undecided 11% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 35% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 15% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 5% (+1)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 15% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 92 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 53 (+10)
- Jack Layton 49 (-10)
- Gilles Duceppe 19 (+3)
- Elizabeth May 18 (-2)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
I'm encouraged by fact Canadians did not fall for the newest Liberal hack,slash ... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 01 Oct 14:22
I have not been making any comments since the start of the daily polls.,... more
Bernie (Ontario) 01 Oct 14:31
This sounds like a Western Canada love-in on this board. Are you saying Regina ... more
HoldenCaulfield (Ontario) 01 Oct 14:55
They never would have balanced the budget if Preston manning hadn't held their f... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 01 Oct 19:13
The Liberals would be most likely to get us into foreign wars, like they did in ... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 01 Oct 19:18
And Iraq. Remember - we had troops in Iraq before the 2006 election.... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 01 Oct 19:19
Comments
Regina Beach Boy
I'm encouraged by fact Canadians did not fall for the newest Liberal hack,slash and Gotchya job by the Bob Rae. I guess Canadians are above these gutter politics and would prefer to talk about the Issues, like the loomong financial nightmare next door, our economy, jobs, and the enviornment.
How novel is that!!
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:22:37 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:22
22 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
psiclone
Hey Nick! What I am fascinated by is how well the NDP are doing this election and if unlike last election where startegic voters went Libera : I have a question is it possible what with all the 3 way races, the strategic voters and if Jack does well during the debates then add a few more undecideds : could the NDP possibly become the official opposition?
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:23:42 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:23
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
Jack Layton took a hit on the leadership index. Wonder if that is the result of his big spending announcements just when the markets took a dive?
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:26:06 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:26
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bernie
I have not been making any comments since the start of the daily polls., since I am not interested in them. The Oct. !4 poll is the only real one.
And all I read here is partisan BS. and personal invective. Neither of which holds any interest to me.
I may watch the "debates" as they are called. Normally I don't but I want to see how Ms May conducts herself and the reaction of the other leaders to her.
It won't make any difference whom I vote for. My mind is made up as soon as the writ is dropped. I don't understand why anyone would be undecided.
I keep abreast of politics all along and so campaigns have no influence on my voting.
I could never vote for the destructive policies of the Harper government. I know how bad he is.
I don't see the policies on any of the other parties having any negative effect on us.
It's just that they don't do enough positive things to make this country what it could be.
Ms. May's voice needs to be heard in parliament so I will vote for her.
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:31:52 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:31
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Berne.Unless you live in her riding you can't vote for her. You can however vote against what you correctly perceive as a danger to Canada. If your Green candidate has no chance of winning then are letting Harper get closer to a majority. Strategic voting is our only option to stop Pinnochio and Harris' Heroes from destroying our country. Think hard before you decide.
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:39:19 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:39
Bernie
larryl I am quite aware that I can't vote for Elizabeth May personally. I also know that the Green Party candidate will not get elected in this riding.
But if you have read anything that I've written in the past, you will know that everything I do is done with reason and logic. :-)
The Liberal without doubt will win easily in this riding. Voting for him will have no useful purpose; it will not accomplish anything.
I believe that the Greens have important policies, policies that would be useful for Canadians and so they should have a voice in parliament. Now I know they most likely not elect a member this time. But by me voting for them, and every other who voters for them, will give them a greater number of votes. The government gives monies in proportion to the number of votes they get. The more money they get the better they will be able to mount a more effective campaign and will hopefully get members elected in the future.
So my vote will have a useful purpose.
If there was a close race here I would vote Liberal just to stop the Cons.
[updated Thu Oct 02 09:19:13 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 09:19
larryl
Bernie. If you know for sure the Liberal will win you should definitely vote for whoever you want.How can anyone be sure? I want the Green party to get more money but in my riding the race is closer so I will vote Liberal even tho I would prefer not to. $1.75 they receive for each vote is great but have you made a donation. Greenparty .ca has a convenient method to do that They will get some of my money after this campaign to help pay their debt . How much will depend on how well they do. I should have found out more about the party before the election and would have contributed earlier.
[updated Thu Oct 02 10:56:25 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 10:56
Bernie
yes you are right. Can anyone be 100% sure?
I feel I' m 99% sure and one makes decision based on the high probably of being correct.
Otherwise I would vote for the Liberals too, even though I wouldn't like too.
John Cannis has won 5 times before in this riding (Scarborough Centre) and I see no indication that he will not win for sixth time.
I can't afford to give direct money support, so the Greens will have to be satisfied with $1.75.
At 9 % of voters that should give them $1 1/2 million. approx. So that should be helpful.
[updated Thu Oct 02 18:12:22 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 18:12
ronj
"And all I read here is partisan BS. and personal invective. Neither of which holds any interest to me."
......
"II could never vote for the destructive policies of the Harper government. I know how bad he is. I don't see the policies on any of the other parties having any negative effect on us. "
Hey Pot! it's me, Kettle! how's it going?
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:39:50 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:39
Craig
While I respect that you keep abreast of politics, I do not think it is fair to declare how you know "how bad" Mr. Harper is.
Personally, I feel we as a country are much better off with a Harper government. People are far too reliant on the federal government when it comes to their lives. Personal responsibility has virtually disappeared. I think the Harper is doing many positive things.
I also respect that you have a reason to vote Green. However, I disagree that they NEED to be heard in parliament. Every party has an environmental plan and, with the intense lobbying by the Sierra Club and Pembina Institute etc, the environment already has a huge voice.
Simply put, May does not deserve to be heard in parliament unless the majority of Canadians in Central Nova want her in. If that is the case, I would welcome her as I would anyone else.
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:47:29 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:47
Bernie
Craig, come on, be serious. "bad" is too nice a word. Surely you don't want to relate the dozens of "bad" things he has done . Everyone who has an IQ above a ten year old can see that. If they don't they are either blind or who partisan to admit it. I believe the latter. They are welcome to their partisanship if that's what they want.
It's personal "responsibility" and lack of government that produced the financial debacle in the US . Even with a minority government Harper has steered us in the same direction. If he had had a majority I believe we too would be in the same predicament.
I can recall only three minor things that he did that had were on the positive side of the ledger.
Those organization that you mentioned are not in parliament. They have no input in the governance of the country. Only members of parliament has. unfortunately because of our arcane and undemocratic system they don't have their due influence.
Re your last paragraph; That is exactly what I'm saying.
[updated Thu Oct 02 09:38:48 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 09:38
Non-aligned in Toronto
Not all of the posts are excessively partisan (though many are) and I have managed to drown out the background noise enough to have some interesting debates. I would be quite pleased if Ms May won a seat, although in this election I'll be supporting the NDP.
[updated Wed Oct 01 15:02:50 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 15:02
Darryl
Well if Ms. May had picked a more reasonable riding to run in then she might have had a chance to win but Central Nova is not a place where she should be expecting to win.
[updated Wed Oct 01 15:13:00 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 15:13
larryl
Darryl. Do you believe she should have done what other party leaders have done and found a nice safe riding to run in. Central Nova has been in the hands of a McKay way to long and she has as good a chance of winning it as any candidate would. Maybe as a party leader she has a better chance of getting rid of someone who should not be there anymore.The P.C. party was fatally wounded by Lyin Brian and Peter finished off the job. Maybe some of those P.C. party faithful will remember who brought us to this precarious position with the extreme right wing idealogues.
[updated Wed Oct 01 17:24:48 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 17:24
Darryl
She should have picked a riding that didn't have a long history of being conservative. I would bet that she could have won a seat in Toronto for example.
"extreme right wing idealogues"? Seems there is lots of red koolaid flowing in some parts of the country? There are certainly members of the CPC that have some views that do not align with the majority of the party but the same can be said about every party in this country.
I have lived in Nova Scotia before and I think I have a good idea what it is like in Central Nova. Coincidently a previous party leader picked this riding to run in to get his seat in the House of Commons. Of course his choice of that riding made a little more sense.
[updated Wed Oct 01 17:38:43 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 17:38
larryl
Darryl. Your memory of how Mulroney got his seat almost correct. I think Elmer resigned rather than Mulroney picking that safe riding. It was of course a Progressive Conservative strong hold and I believe they are running a candidate against McKay . With no Liberal candidate she might surprise the CPC. Did you not mention Mulroney for fear of reminding us of his involvement with the Harper team. I guarantee you will see Lyin Brian on election night if God forbid Harper wins. He is being kept hidden just like the agenda until after the campaign.
[updated Wed Oct 01 17:52:27 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 17:52
westerner (suspended)
Liz wouldn't have the remotest chance of winning a seat in Central Nova if the Liberals had run a candidate there as well. The Liberal/Green Alliance Party has turned many Liberals in Central Nova against the Liberal Party because Dion took away their right to vote for the Party of their choice. Three cheers for Peter McKay.
[updated Wed Oct 01 18:45:31 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 18:45
larryl
Westerner. You underestimate Liberals. They knew they had little chance of beating McKay if the vote was split by another party but they can get rid of Peter by supporting May. Even some of the old P.C. faithful might vote for her to punish what they see as a traitor to their roots. The merger was not appreciated by many red Tories and they could show their displeasure at the polls.
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:11:10 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:11
westerner (suspended)
You are clearly not "non aligned" anymore as an NDP supporter. Time to change your misleading name.
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:35:51 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:35
Non-aligned in Toronto
You are right. For this election (and this election only) I am no longer non-aligned. I am not trying to mislead anyone, I just haven't got around to changing my moniker, although I did publicly announce my new status in August.
[updated Thu Oct 02 13:21:02 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 13:21
Goodluck with your vote and your party.
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:40:51 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:40
Bernie
I don't vbote for persons, nor parties. I voter for the best policies.
Partisanship is for those who need someone else to do their thinking for them.
[updated Thu Oct 02 09:39:02 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 09:39
I agree 100% and will continue to vote when I am convinced of a number of better policies regardless of what party inititated it. Thats why I said we need more voices and candidates running across Canada.
[updated Thu Oct 02 10:30:23 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 10:30
User1
Vote for a party that will be in the government which May supports
[updated Thu Oct 02 11:20:50 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 11:20
Nothing wrong with voting Green, but realistically, they wont win a seat, and if they do, which I really hope they do, not enough clout or power and if it is a Majority, then it will all be hot air anyway. Lets hope that the NDP is the Official Opposition, and the "Lie"berals get smacked at the polls for their lacklusture campaign. To much emphisis on smearing our PM and not enough on Economics. Typical Libs!!
[updated Thu Oct 02 13:38:13 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 13:38
HoldenCaulfield
This sounds like a Western Canada love-in on this board. Are you saying Regina Beach Boy that you find it acceptable for Stephen Harper to stand in the House of Commons and argue that the Nation ought to go to war in Iraq, using someone else's words? As Rae rightly pointed out when a leader is making such an argument it is incumbent upon him to find his own words or the words of his own Nation, not those of the Bush coalition.
Bob Rae and the Liberals were correct to point this out.
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:55:58 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:55
64 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
fortescue
I must have missed an interesting night on the blog!!
MBAGS=Banned
Rsharp=Banned
TPQ=Banned
Do they still get to vote!!
[updated Wed Oct 01 15:28:26 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 15:28
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HoldenCaulfield
Although I am not a polling expert please allow me to add my very unscientific musings to this thread. I would not give up on the Liberal brand in this election and this is why.
Although the Liberals are hovering around 26 percent, the Conservatives seem to be stuck in the high 30’s. I predict that the Conservatives National numbers are artificially inflated because of their adoring fans in the oil patch. Their dumber than dumb comments last week about culture, combined with their get tough on Youth Crime tripe works well out in oil country but it has cost them dearly in Quebec, where they had hoped to make gains.
The conservatives ongoing gaffes will cost them in Quebec and the Bloc will benefit.
If they cannot contain their members or if anyone cares to use their memory and remember who makes up the new Conservative Party, then they may lose some votes in urban Ontario on issues of intolerance towards minorities.
In Eastern Canada, the Liberals are doing better, I’m sure helped by Premier Danny Williams and his Progressive Conservative Cabinet who have declared war on the Federal (Reform) Conservatives.
My guess is that the Conservatives will not win a Majority. I think they will win another Minority but no Majority. I also predict that as we get closer to October 14th and it becomes clearer that they will not win a Majority that Harper will have more and more trouble containing the vocal and large redneck fringe in this party that has gotten him into hot water in the past.
Before this election is over, someone just may remember that Stephen Harper was the guy who said that Alberta ought to build firewalls around itself to protect it from the rest of Canada, which he described as content to be a “second tier socialistic-country”
Holden
[updated Wed Oct 01 15:30:55 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 15:30
48 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
rsharp1
Listen to this. It's a hoot.
http://www.236.com/blog/w/lee_camp/mccains_voice_mail_to_palin_le_8644.php
[updated Wed Oct 01 17:17:18 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 17:17
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
rsharp1
And this.
http://www.peteyandpetunia.com/VoteHere/VoteHere.htm
[updated Wed Oct 01 17:19:02 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 17:19
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Van Centre
"he first night of tracking since the plagiarism issue hit the campaign shows no initial significant impact on Conservative ballot support."
I'm curious why, every day, you attempt to causally relate some minor campaign issue with movements in the tracking poll. How many Canadians actually follow the campaign that closely? Very few, I expect.
Polls aren't going up and down because Stephane Dion went to Prince George and not Prince Rupert; because Jack wore a green tie instead of an orange one. In fact, the polls are barely moving at all.
[updated Wed Oct 01 17:22:44 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 17:22
12 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
rsharp1
Far as I can tell I was suspended for this:
Informed1, good advice. I confess to periodic lapses but I keep trying to stay civil. Criticize what is said, not the person saying it. And, when it comes to name-calling, there is a big difference between our fellow bloggers and public figures.
Mr. Harper is mean, vindictive, untrustworthy, small-minded, ideologically crazed, snide, uncaring, obnoxious, arbitrary, all-controlling, incompetent, managerially-challenged, pro-American (no matter), anti-Muslim, pro-business, anti-government, anti-environment, anti-consumer, anti-labour, anti-women......
"But I have no doubt he's a good father. There, I just crossed the line. His private life is his business but, when it comes to Harper's public record, including his record as head of the extreme RW National Citizens Coalition and plaigarized speeches he made years ago supporting Bush's insane Iraq war, all bets are off. I will express my opinions and that includes categorizing/labelling, aka name-calling."
This is called sarcasm. What is disagreeable about that? Even if it is, what is not true? Even if it's not true, in light of my posts (go see), does it warrant a suspension? The humiliation is too much.
k. I can take that. What offends me is the censorship.
[updated Wed Oct 01 17:34:50 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 17:34
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
rsharp1
Debating points:
Mr. Harper will you get us into war against faraway countries with the Americans whenever they decide it's time?
Or will you return Canada to its 50-year tradition of peacekeeping.?
[updated Wed Oct 01 17:59:05 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 17:59
30 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hardripples
I'm watching the french debate and find harper's French to be every bit as bad as Dion's english.
[updated Wed Oct 01 21:17:41 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 21:17
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
rsharp 2
Sorry to interrupt the debate. But Nik needs to learn about freedom of speech, methinks. Here is my reply to him on why I got busted:
Well, I feel like I've shamed myself. Apparently because I stated that people who pray to idols are freaks. Sorry. Let me repeat it. People who pray to idols who don't talk back are freaks. Ban me again Nik.
Religious freaks in the States have just about ruined this world. There are centuries of ruination before Bush and his evangelical nuts. What do you need, Nik? A road map?
I admire your polling acumen big-time. But don''t tell me what to say.
My goodness, these same people have no qualms about killing people (when making unjust/immoral wars, the death penalty, etc.), I have no problems with Quakers and their like. These people are rteal Christians.
[updated Wed Oct 01 21:24:36 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 21:24
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Reg
I have been lurking and reading the various comments since Nik started this board. I guess it is time to add the odd comment.
Just so you know, I am a CPC supporter.
In addition to the other boards that various people have pointed to you might also want to check out the election stock market run by the the Sauder School of Business at UBC (esm.ubc.ca). UBC has run this market on a number of elections now and it is quite accurate. Investors are putting up real money (although a maximum of $1,000 so nobody is buying the market and twisting the results) and it has been quite accurate over the years.
[updated Thu Oct 02 11:29:08 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 11:29
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Well, the consensus out there seems to be that Harper won the debate, but mostly by default. I doubt the debate shifted a lot of people one way or another, but we'll see. Unfortunately with the debate taking place in the evening we probably will have to wait till tomorrow's polling to see if it had much effect one way or another (and another to see about tonite's debate) but overall i think it's probably going to have minimal effect.
[updated Thu Oct 02 11:40:01 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 11:40
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
English Debate Will the Liberal Media air the pre-recorded Dion winning debate newsclips before debate ends?
(Okay just kidding we all know the media is controlled by George Bush and the Hidden Right Wing Agenda.)
Food for thought about the Food Safety in Canada.
Liberal cuts and shift to industry -source (http://www.notaleader.ca/realitycheck/?p=77)
“Ottawa wants to cut the fat from Canada’s food inspection system, Agriculture Minister Ralph Goodale said... Agriculture Canada is looking at ways to shift responsibilities to the industry which could in turn lead to privatization of certain inspection procedures, he said… Millions of dollars could be saved under a self-regulatory system, said Goodale.” (“Grits want to pare food-inspection costs,” Times Colonist, Jul 14, 1994)
Budget 1995 “Program Review” resulted in a 21.5 per cent or $445 million baseline cut to the Agriculture budget, which included the Food Production and Inspection Branch. (Budget 1995, http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget95/fact/FACT_6e.html)
Dr. Art Olson, Assistant Deputy Minister: “The Food Production and Inspection Branch’s operating budget will be reduced by approximately $70 million over the next three years…This means an overall funding reduction of 1,283 full-time equivalent positions.” (Testimony, Standing Committee on Agriculture, May 16, 1995) http://www.parl.gc.ca/35/Archives/committees351/agfo/evidence/59_95-05-16/agfo59_blk101.html
Budget 1995 also undertook “opportunities for privatization” and states: “The Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food will share responsibilities and streamline arrangements with industry for inspection and regulation activities.” (Budget 1995, http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget95/fact/FACT_9e.html)
Budget 1996 deepened “Program Review” cuts to a 30.1 per cent or $625 million baseline cut to the Agriculture budget, which included food safety. (Budget 1996, http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget96/bp/bp96e.pdf)
Finance Minister Paul Martin: “Surely we can all agree that it is simply silly for a food processing plant to have a federal meat inspector, a federal health inspector, a federal fish inspector, not to mention a provincial health inspector and a provincial food inspector tripping over themselves on the same day, in the same plant, doing essentially the same thing.” (Budget Speech, Mar 6, 1996, http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget96/speech/speeche.txt)
Budget 2005 “Expenditure Review” further cut $180 million from the Agriculture Department and cut $69 million from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency. (Budget 2005, http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget05/booklets/bkexpe.htm)
Anyone care to refute those articles or comments from Goodale,Olson,Martin?
[updated Thu Oct 02 12:29:32 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 12:29
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.