Nationally, the Conservatives lead the Liberals (37% to 26%) followed by the NDP at 20%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 8%.
Yesterday’s attacks on Stephen Harper resulted in negative pressure on the daily impression for him related to trust, competence and vision. However, his best PM score and ballot support for the Tories remained steady.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 28, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,055, MoE ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37 (+1)
- Liberal Party 26 (NC)
- NDP 20 (NC)
- BQ 10% (+1)
- Green Party 8% (-1)
- Undecided 12% (-4)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 36% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 15% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 7% (-1)
- Unsure 16% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 89 (-21)
- Jack Layton 59 (+5)
- Stephane Dion 43 (+8)
- Elizabeth May 20 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (NC)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
As the polls keep showing time after time, the race is truly tight in most of Ca... more
robini (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:37
Conservatives are back to a 11 point lead. The rolling averages are again moving... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 30 Sep 14:34
Another day of the status quo. It will be interesting to see what kind of an ... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:24
I believe the only real questions left are how close the Conservative Party will... more
Darryl (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:27
TPC/MBAGS was not exactly raising the level of discourse on this board. He won'... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 01 Oct 12:38
You really think it's "still anyone's to win"? I think it would take something m... more
Darryl (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:49
Comments
MichaelFox
Another day of the status quo.
It will be interesting to see what kind of an impact, if any, the turbulence in the markets will have on the results going forward. All parties will try to spin it to their advantage.
The percentage undecided went down by a lot today. Voting intentions are firming up.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:24:12 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:24
25 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
Conservatives are back to a 11 point lead. The rolling averages are again moving them up as the week progresses. Should be a strong minority, or if the numbers work out very well a weak majority. Any others willing to predict?
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:34:48 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:34
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
As the polls keep showing time after time, the race is truly tight in most of Canada, but remember one thing.... the undecided voter is still high in all areas of Nanos Polling. Rolling polls give insight on the basic feeling of the Campaign as it unfolds. When the French debate is over tomorrow night, watch the undecided polls jump downward. After the English debate, they will in my gut feeling drop to around 10 to 15 percent. Realistically there is a great campaign going on for Harper, yes a few gaffes, and now the thing with the speech and plagerism, give me a break, this is scare and monger tactics by a dying Liberal party looking for anything to derail Harper. But yet he still holds great poll results. After the debates, I feel that Harper will show that he is truly a great PM and Dion and Layton will look like fighting sibblings and Harper will sit back and enjoy the fight, because the NDP is looking like it might just form the next official opposition due to the Dion wanna be war machine to busy fighting on both fronts, NDP and the CPC. You can have Rae, Iggy, and the rest of the Dream Team on live for the next two weeks till the election, and all this is going to do is show how weak and out of touch the LPC is and how they need a cleansing at the polls to almost erradicate their corrupt and arrogant party to the back benches of the Official Third Party.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:37:31 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:37
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Well - cpc's up again and probably will be again tomorrow (just in time for the debates) but i think this is probably a pretty accurate picture. The CPC has lost a little ground in quebec and they probably really are at 37 - 38 right now.
They may well get a little bump from the problems down south. If harper can really sell the fact that his plan is safer, smarter and less 'stupid' than a 40 billion dollar new tax and 80 billion dollars in spending that is only costed based on numbers from the beginning of the year when the economic picture was very different and oil was high, then his numbers will take a definite upswing again.
Duceppe may be a bigger factor than was originally thought in the debates - he may go after dion a lot harder than was expected.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:44:11 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:44
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I would hope the BQ are picking up 'action' at the expense of the cpc.
Good for the country, seeing as how harper HAS to be 'reined in' and the BQ is what it is, no matter what we think.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:12:46 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:12
67 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
PKS
I've been living without a land-line, cell phone only, since 2005 now. Out of say, the 100-odd people that I know, I can count on my fingers the people who are:
1) under 35, and
2) listed in the phone book.
I don't see the trend of people giving up their landlines for cell phones reversing itself. If you're not in the phone book, you don't get called by pollsters.
Not sure how much of an impact that this will make in this election, but doesn't this suggest that, as time goes on, polls are going to be less and less accurate?
[updated Tue Sep 30 18:13:12 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 18:13
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
From Truthout. Replace McCain with Harper. And Palin with every Tory who isn't Harper, from Ministers to speechwriters. lol.
[updated Tue Sep 30 20:49:47 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 20:49
33 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
these polls are now clearly showing that its time for all progressives in Canada to vote liberal. They continue to hold well over 50% of the voters intentions and with the NDP trying and failing to capture the center its time for their voters to abandon lyin Jack and vote out Harper.
Quebec will come around fr the Libs before this is over and they could reach 25 seats there if Dion can capture the hearts and minds of his own people. This is starting to happen as the focus on trying the cons is weakening there. People are now seeing that Harper is a cynical, uncaring liar who is trying to bamboozle French Canadians. They are now proving to be much smarter than him.
[updated Wed Oct 01 03:58:54 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 03:58
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
French TV debate strategy will Liberal support hit all time low?
Dion is the least liked leader in Quebec for serveral reasons, Harper has lost several points since his comments of culture, Layton and May are unlikely to gain any real support as Ducceppe will remind the French speaking people of his singular focus and his loyalty to promote his brands message.
That is the area all parties can use against him although it may backfire. The Bloc is a provincial party running in a federal election. He does not represent Canadians interests outside Quebec and is unable to form a government to address his policies.
[updated Wed Oct 01 09:17:01 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 09:17
45 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
k. Nik has suspended TPC and MBAGS for inappropriate comments. I have a post on point and I invite you to read it.
http://nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/96/13823#comment_14155
I feel overwhelmed by the Con minions on this site. larryl! It's you and me, Bud. Help!
[updated Wed Oct 01 12:07:10 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 12:07
28 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HC in AB
TPC/MBAGS was not exactly raising the level of discourse on this board. He won't missed but comic relief was good for the soul.
[updated Wed Oct 01 12:38:35 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 12:38
larryl
HC. The name calling has been going on for a long time. I was included in warnings to others to be more civil and have tried to be more respectful of other posters but have used what some consider inappropriate and disrespectful language toward Pinnochio and Lyin Brian and will probably continue.I am like TPQ very passionate about what I believe. To me there is a real danger to our country if we give Harper a majority so I can see no better reason to use whatever is necessary to prevent that from happening. Insults and name calling are not desired and can go too far but one can understand why it happens in the heat of a debate. I found it went too far but didn't any humour in it. There is more comic relief in two people who agree with other trying to pat each other on the back..
[updated Wed Oct 01 13:54:21 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 13:54
parmley
larryl: You seem to be a person without morals and standards. As much as i dont like Dions plan i would never use innapropriate language to express my dissaproval of a plan that does nothing for the environment and only draws 40 billion in tax for the liberals to spend if they get elected.Carbon taxes are on the ways out in europe especially Germany because all they do is kill jobs , nothing in the environment is improved in any way. We have a governement in B.C. in big trouble because of a carbon tax that has only served to put the price up on everything we buy.Since July 1st prices in the grocery store have escalated and traffic is worse than usual proving that no one will stop driving and all it does is kill jobs and increase our cost of living. Please start to think before you speak.
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:08:38 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:08
larryl
Parmley How many of my posts have you read to make this judgement on my morals and standards. If just my words can make me seem this way what can your opinion be of Mulroney when he has admitted to taking thousands of dollars in cash from a known arms dealer . He then had the gall to sue the people of Canada and has still not returned any of that $2 million dollars or reimbursed us for our legal fees for that lawsuit. As for your hero Harper ,he broke his own law by calling this unnecessary election. If he wanted an election he should have given the opposition parties something to vote on to defeat his government but he wanted to use another interpretation of his own law to his advantage in order to stop committees and inquiries from revealing the truth about the many scandals plagueing his government. At least I only seem to be without morals and standards rather than do what Pinnochio and Lyin Brian did to prove it.
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:28:21 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:28
parmley
Brian Mulroney is not running for political office !!! But Dion is. I notice you dont mention him very often. I am sure there is a reason for that.
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:55:32 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:55
larryl
Parmley. You should read some of my previous posts. I have said several times the best thing that could happen for the Liberals would be if Dion resigned before not after the election. Conservatives want to distance themselves from their former hero even tho he is still in Harper's inner circle. Corruption helped elect our minority government and rightfully should help defeat it since they are just as guilty but we were not allowed to see the evidence. Morals and standards are definitely not something that I need lessons for from a Conservative especially those two . Do you think we will ever get our money back?
[updated Wed Oct 01 15:26:16 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 15:26
parmley
The money was for Mr Mulroneys lawyers only even tho he was entitled to many millions in damages. You can thank Mr Cretien for the law suit and for the loss to the treasury since he was the cause of the court action. Liberals always try to point the finger in the wrong direction when they get caught with their hand in the cooky jar. Will we ever find the 100 million dollars still missing in the sponsorship scandal, i think not. Mr Martin and Mr Chretien were very good at hiding the money.
[updated Wed Oct 01 23:57:20 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 23:57
larryl
Parmley. How can you say Mulroney deserves anything for damages when he testified he took money from Karl . $225,000 cash payments not declared as income should be proof enough even for the most biased Conservative . Did you miss that part of his testimony . Chretien did not launch the lawsuit so how can you blame him for it. Lyin Brian was being investigated by the RCMP and we now know they had good reason to since the revelations about Schreiber have come out. You should really try to keep up with new revelations of the Gomery report. There is money the government wants to get back from the criminals who have been exposed . They know where the money went and that there is approximately $60 million that was paid for work that was never done or billed to the government more than once. The report said some of that money was funnelled to the Liberal party and the Parti Quebecois. You can't be naive enough to think these same companies were not making political donations to the Conservatives when they were in power.
[updated Thu Oct 02 10:23:11 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 10:23
parmley
You seem to forget it was the Liberal party that was forced to repay 8 million dollars to the federal treasury. I know Chretien said what's a million but really 8 million dolllars is a lot of money and then there is the missing 100 million never found as of yet. If you have no other argument dont bother me again. you sound like a broken record. This is 2008 not 1990.
[updated Thu Oct 02 10:35:56 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 10:35
larryl
parmley. I am sorry if I bother you but I thought I was informing you since you seem to have this figure of $100 million stuck in your head . The auditor generals report said there was 100 million unaccounted for . The Gomery commission found out where most of that money went. They know 40 million should be recovered from the companies that defrauded the government. If you think the Liberal party got that amount or more you are beyond help. The advertising agencies stole most of that money for themselves and it has been proven they made donations to both the Liberals and the P.Q. because those two parties were in power during the time that was investigated. Read any of the dozens of books on corruption in government and you will see half of them are about Conservative corruption since it is built into the system and not limited to the Liberal party. It started with confederation and has continued since then. John A . Macdonald was the first P.M. forced out of office.
[updated Thu Oct 02 11:33:27 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 11:33
parmley
You seem to have a rosey picture of the liberal party that defies the facts. 100 million went missing and the advertising companies together with the liberal party got most of the money. Sorry you dont have an open mind but i used to be a liberal and i am older so i know where of i speak. It was a bag mans paradise under Chretien.
[updated Thu Oct 02 11:46:53 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 11:46
larryl
Parmley. " When we were having dinner he said to me, "Was the Mulroney government an aberration? Stevie, was it always like this?" And he said, "Is this just business as usual, or were these people unusual? Was this an aberration?" And I said, "I believe it was an aberration." And I said that every government has its crooked politicians, its patronage and its rigged bids, but there was never a government in Canadian history like this one. It was an example of a small coterie of people who hijacked the Conservative Party. I haven't been able, of course, to belong to any party during my many years as a journalist, but I said to him, "You know, many of the cabinet ministers in this government were as honest as anyone I know, and many of the MPs were. There are plenty of honest Tories and the Party will come back. But the people who were honest during those years were powerless." This is a paragraph from a speech given by Stevie Cameron. She is a former Conservative with an illustrious family history of Tory politicians. She wrote about Mulroney and Brian never tried to sue her or her publishers for slander since she had proof of everything she wrote about him and the Conservative corruption. Find me a party that is not corrupt and i will show you a party that has never been in power. I have never denied Liberals got some of the missing money but there is no way in the world they got most of it. The auditor general in her report stated very clearly she had no proof of where the money went after it left government coffers.What proof can you provide the Liberals got all that money. They would not be on the verge of bankruptcy today would they if they got 100 million ?
[updated Thu Oct 02 16:28:21 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 16:28
larryl
Parmley How many of my posts have you read to make this judgement on my morals and standards. If just my words can make me seem this way what can your opinion be of Mulroney when he has admitted to taking thousands of dollars in cash from a known arms dealer . He then had the gall to sue the people of Canada and has still not returned any of that $2 million dollars or reimbursed us for our legal fees for that lawsuit. As for your hero Harper ,he broke his own law by calling this unnecessary election. If he wanted an election he should have given the opposition parties something to vote on to defeat his government but he wanted to use another interpretation of his own law to his advantage in order to stop committees and inquiries from revealing the truth about the many scandals plagueing his government. At least I only seem to be without morals and standards rather than do what Pinnochio and Lyin Brian did to prove it.
[updated Wed Oct 01 14:28:23 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 14:28
I agree having a passion can lead to a heated exchange but it does not validate bad behaviour.
I have children and I don't blame sugar for an outburt. Own your statements.
You continue to infer that 2 Canadians whom you don't agree with as cartoon characters or liars.
Your constant attacks referring to "hidden agendas" does not support the reality of the past 2.5 years of the CPC government. They have a track record. I would also state as the Liberal Party decided to "abstain" on several bills: Harper had a majority government. He governed in fact more to the left of centre with his policies and his increases in growth of budgets above the Liberal track record. You can look that up if you don't agree.
So your claim below does not hold water and in fact is a much bigger problem.
"if we give Harper a majority so I can see no better reason to use whatever is necessary to prevent that from happening." -larryl
that I believe is a view of an extremist/idealogue not a person who accepts differing points of view. Don't you agree?
So again I ask you to act in a balanced and respectful manner toward members of this site and fellow Canadians.
[updated Wed Oct 01 15:50:23 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 15:50
larryl
Informed. I have no idea how informed you really are so I ask if you are aware of Harper's previous statements and his personal history. When he was head of the National Citizens Coalition his ideology was much more apparent. When he wrote the Alberta Agenda he was open about what he believed. His mentor and close advisor has written books that make his right wing philosophy very clear. The Calgary School is very influential in what Harper believes. I posted a quotes from Tom Flanagan that make it quite clear they could not reveal all their plans as they needed to proceed slowly and cautiously in order to stay in power. This election will result in another minority in all likely hood which would suit the CPC since they are intent on bankrupting the Liberal Party Of Canada which will allow them to govern for years to come after another quick election. Do you really believe Harper and Mulroney deserve my respect or any one elses for that matter?
[updated Wed Oct 01 16:34:17 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 16:34
Simply yes. I respect your right to express your ideas. Name-calling each other leader is not productive in a debate.
My vote is based on the track record in government on policy, not a tastless joke, internet puffin, copied speech etc.
Same for Dion his track record in government. I dont care about his gaffes.
I see our media has failed again. This is fluff.
I know you are partisan because you raise these issues to stir a pot. It's a pity we cant debate real issues affecting working families and party policies because the fluff are not worth discussing.
[updated Wed Oct 01 18:48:22 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 18:48
larryl
Informed. You can consider all these things fluff and you would be right so why can't we see that it is simply obfuscation in order to keep us all from discussing the real issues . Is it possible we are being kept away from the important stuff by the powers that control both parties. People like me are labelled conspiracy nuts and ignored just for thinking there are professionals in the Ivory towers who control things. I have tried many times to start discussions about the important topics but everyone just goes off on their biased rants that not relevant . Health care should be discussed even tho it is a provincial issue but the Canada Health Act is federal and the CPC will do nothing to protect universality since they want to privatize the whole system to get access to the billions we waste intentionally in order to make the system look up bad. Should we be discussing this or not. The federal government can stop transfer payments if provinces violate the Health Act so why are we not discussing this very important issue. Not something the right wants to talk about?
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:38:12 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:38
Now that was a great topic.
Does a Federal Government have the fortitude to hold provinces accountable by withholding transfer payments if they violate the Health Act.
Okay I will bite.
Yes all parties should agree with the sitting government and support that motion.
[updated Wed Oct 01 21:51:46 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 21:51
HC in AB
Most of us are here to engage in a discussion of the merits of various points of view. I find blind partisanshop amusing. If you think that by venting vitriol on this site you will increase the likelyhood of one group or the other being elected you are in the wrong place. Virtually all of us here had our minds made up and our votes were locked in when the writ was dropped. If wish the further the cause of the group you are backing you should be knocking on doors, putting up signs, delivering brochures etc. etc.
[updated Wed Oct 01 21:35:52 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 21:35
Agreed this is a place for debate of ideas or policies.
[updated Wed Oct 01 21:52:44 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 21:52
larryl
HC. I am not partisan . I don't care who beats Harper. I don't know for sure but I think some might have learned a few things on this site. I do know my opinions have changed and I will promote the Green party policies but in order to prevent a CPC majority I will vote strategically this time. Most believe the Greens are a one issue party but I have discovered they have other policies that many might find interesting. Of course being in Alberta it will take a long time to change any opinions out there.
[updated Thu Oct 02 08:51:37 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 08:51
larryl
Sharp. I am here and trying to have some intelligent {that's only my opinion} debate . I haven't been contributing much since I feel discussing polls is rather pointless which is becoming more obvious as the numbers haven't changed much since the campaign started. TPQ ? Mbags?got caught up in name calling and insults which many of us including me have and I got fed up with it. I prefer to not respond to others who are obviously stead fast in their opinions and will never change even with overwhelming evidence. My position has been from the beginning that there is little difference between the two major parties . I believe they are both controlled by the boys in the backrooms of Bay Street. I have been told to be more respectful and stop using nicknames that I like for Harper and Mulroney but I don't think either one deserves any respect which time will prove me right.As long as the suspension lasts I will try to help when I can. Friday,Saturday and Monday will be working at a polling station so you will have to ask a couple of others for assistance. Good luck and keep up the good fight.
[updated Wed Oct 01 12:59:17 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 12:59
Why do you feel overwhelmed?
You have your idealogy and I support your freedom of expression. We can be civil and agree to disagree on policies. Are you being censored?
The only problem I see is the poor choice of words, personal attacks from several people make because they feel they have to defend a track record of a party or leader.
I also think some satire is appropriate and I dont take offense if your are being balanced.
Let's try and keep this great forum respectful.
[updated Wed Oct 01 13:15:04 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 13:15
Foxer
I read your post - but i'm not even sure what 'inappropriate' comments mbags/tpc made that got them canned. For all i know it was excessive swearing and not an 'opinion' that got him booted, i noticed he was swearing a fair bit.
I think that most of the posters here generally respond 'in kind' to posts. I personally try not to be 'insulting' when you aren't being insulting for example. But use of terms like 'con minions' obviously isn't exactly trying to engage people in polite discourse is it. Elf posts here and while i may attack her points and her argument i've never called her 'names' and never known her to call me names back.
So if you're concerned - why not try actually debating the issues. I mean - simply running around calling harper names and calling any poster who doesn't agree with you names isn't really discussing the issues. Make real arguments and make real rebuttals to others arguments. If your reasoning is sound and fact based then realistically others will see your points regardless of how many other posters there are from other parties on the site.
That's about the best advice i can offer.
[updated Wed Oct 01 13:56:08 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 13:56
Agreed
[updated Wed Oct 01 15:52:18 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 15:52
rsharp1
Good advice. I try. But you guys drive me crazy!
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:35:15 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:35
Foxer
Well of course - i paid extra on my car insurance specifically for 'to and from crazy' coverage! Might as well use it I figure... :)
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:48:17 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:48
HC in AB
I don't know, maybe when he said to me that "your ex told be that you are a dirt bag". I will admit to flagging that one.
[updated Wed Oct 01 21:48:59 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 21:48