CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 20, Bloc 10, GP 8 (ending September 29)

Another day of the status quo.

It will be interesting to see what kind of an impact, if any, the turbulence in the markets will have on the results going forward. All parties will try to spin it to their advantage.

The percentage undecided went down by a lot today. Voting intentions are firming up.

[updated Tue Sep 30 14:24:12 EDT 2008]

Conservatives are back to a 11 point lead. The rolling averages are again moving them up as the week progresses. Should be a strong minority, or if the numbers work out very well a weak majority. Any others willing to predict?

[updated Tue Sep 30 14:34:48 EDT 2008]

As the polls keep showing time after time, the race is truly tight in most of Canada, but remember one thing.... the undecided voter is still high in all areas of Nanos Polling. Rolling polls give insight on the basic feeling of the Campaign as it unfolds. When the French debate is over tomorrow night, watch the undecided polls jump downward. After the English debate, they will in my gut feeling drop to around 10 to 15 percent. Realistically there is a great campaign going on for Harper, yes a few gaffes, and now the thing with the speech and plagerism, give me a break, this is scare and monger tactics by a dying Liberal party looking for anything to derail Harper. But yet he still holds great poll results. After the debates, I feel that Harper will show that he is truly a great PM and Dion and Layton will look like fighting sibblings and Harper will sit back and enjoy the fight, because the NDP is looking like it might just form the next official opposition due to the Dion wanna be war machine to busy fighting on both fronts, NDP and the CPC. You can have Rae, Iggy, and the rest of the Dream Team on live for the next two weeks till the election, and all this is going to do is show how weak and out of touch the LPC is and how they need a cleansing at the polls to almost erradicate their corrupt and arrogant party to the back benches of the Official Third Party.

[updated Tue Sep 30 14:37:31 EDT 2008]

Well - cpc's up again and probably will be again tomorrow (just in time for the debates) but i think this is probably a pretty accurate picture. The CPC has lost a little ground in quebec and they probably really are at 37 - 38 right now.

They may well get a little bump from the problems down south. If harper can really sell the fact that his plan is safer, smarter and less 'stupid' than a 40 billion dollar new tax and 80 billion dollars in spending that is only costed based on numbers from the beginning of the year when the economic picture was very different and oil was high, then his numbers will take a definite upswing again.

Duceppe may be a bigger factor than was originally thought in the debates - he may go after dion a lot harder than was expected.

[updated Tue Sep 30 14:44:11 EDT 2008]

I would hope the BQ are picking up 'action' at the expense of the cpc.
Good for the country, seeing as how harper HAS to be 'reined in' and the BQ is what it is, no matter what we think.

[updated Tue Sep 30 15:12:46 EDT 2008]

I've been living without a land-line, cell phone only, since 2005 now. Out of say, the 100-odd people that I know, I can count on my fingers the people who are:
1) under 35, and
2) listed in the phone book.

I don't see the trend of people giving up their landlines for cell phones reversing itself. If you're not in the phone book, you don't get called by pollsters.

Not sure how much of an impact that this will make in this election, but doesn't this suggest that, as time goes on, polls are going to be less and less accurate?

[updated Tue Sep 30 18:13:12 EDT 2008]

From Truthout. Replace McCain with Harper. And Palin with every Tory who isn't Harper, from Ministers to speechwriters. lol.

[updated Tue Sep 30 20:49:47 EDT 2008]

these polls are now clearly showing that its time for all progressives in Canada to vote liberal. They continue to hold well over 50% of the voters intentions and with the NDP trying and failing to capture the center its time for their voters to abandon lyin Jack and vote out Harper.
Quebec will come around fr the Libs before this is over and they could reach 25 seats there if Dion can capture the hearts and minds of his own people. This is starting to happen as the focus on trying the cons is weakening there. People are now seeing that Harper is a cynical, uncaring liar who is trying to bamboozle French Canadians. They are now proving to be much smarter than him.

[updated Wed Oct 01 03:58:54 EDT 2008]

French TV debate strategy will Liberal support hit all time low?

Dion is the least liked leader in Quebec for serveral reasons, Harper has lost several points since his comments of culture, Layton and May are unlikely to gain any real support as Ducceppe will remind the French speaking people of his singular focus and his loyalty to promote his brands message.

That is the area all parties can use against him although it may backfire. The Bloc is a provincial party running in a federal election. He does not represent Canadians interests outside Quebec and is unable to form a government to address his policies.

[updated Wed Oct 01 09:17:01 EDT 2008]

k. Nik has suspended TPC and MBAGS for inappropriate comments. I have a post on point and I invite you to read it.

http://nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/96/13823#comment_14155

I feel overwhelmed by the Con minions on this site. larryl! It's you and me, Bud. Help!

[updated Wed Oct 01 12:07:10 EDT 2008]