Nationally, the Conservatives lead the Liberals (37% to 26%) followed by the NDP at 20%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 8%.
Yesterday’s attacks on Stephen Harper resulted in negative pressure on the daily impression for him related to trust, competence and vision. However, his best PM score and ballot support for the Tories remained steady.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 28, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,055, MoE ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37 (+1)
- Liberal Party 26 (NC)
- NDP 20 (NC)
- BQ 10% (+1)
- Green Party 8% (-1)
- Undecided 12% (-4)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 36% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 15% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 7% (-1)
- Unsure 16% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 89 (-21)
- Jack Layton 59 (+5)
- Stephane Dion 43 (+8)
- Elizabeth May 20 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (NC)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
As the polls keep showing time after time, the race is truly tight in most of Ca... more
robini (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:37
Conservatives are back to a 11 point lead. The rolling averages are again moving... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 30 Sep 14:34
Another day of the status quo. It will be interesting to see what kind of an ... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:24
I believe the only real questions left are how close the Conservative Party will... more
Darryl (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:27
TPC/MBAGS was not exactly raising the level of discourse on this board. He won'... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 01 Oct 12:38
You really think it's "still anyone's to win"? I think it would take something m... more
Darryl (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:49
Comments
MichaelFox
Another day of the status quo.
It will be interesting to see what kind of an impact, if any, the turbulence in the markets will have on the results going forward. All parties will try to spin it to their advantage.
The percentage undecided went down by a lot today. Voting intentions are firming up.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:24:12 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:24
25 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
Conservatives are back to a 11 point lead. The rolling averages are again moving them up as the week progresses. Should be a strong minority, or if the numbers work out very well a weak majority. Any others willing to predict?
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:34:48 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:34
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
My prediction is that the Conservatives will be right at the threshold of majority. I think they'll be between 5 short of a majority and 5 above the majority line.
Even without a technical majority, the Conservatives will be able to govern for a considerable time anyway since the liberals will not be in a position to force an election for years.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:40:27 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:40
Lex Llewdor
This is much how they managed to keep this parliament going for so long. They basically dared the Liberals to bring them down again and again, and the Liberals kept not showing up for votes to avoid defeating the government.
With the Liberals' financial woes now even worse, and the need now to hold yet another leadership convention, they'll want to keep this next parliament going as long as possible (note they didn't even bring down this one).
I worked in politics. I know how Liberal funding worked in the period from 1993-2000. The Liberals had relatively few donations from ordinary people, and the ones they got tended to be quite large. But they were also heavily funded by the chartered banks and by large corporations - and to a lesser extent by trade unions (most union money went to the NDP). With Chrétien's campaign finance reform, now only individuals can donate to political parties, and only in limited quantities.
In 2000, The Canadian Alliance had over 240,000 members, and they received remarkably little corporate funding. So fundraising for them was all about volume, and they raised from those members about $6 million each year.
Chrétien's campaign finance bill is of huge benefit to parties with the Alliance fundraising model, and of tremendous detriment to parties with the Liberal fundraising model.
It appears the Liberals haven't been able to adapt.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:05:16 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:05
Foxer
Well they're not likely to encourage new donations while they're perceived as 'losers' after losing another election.
Worse - dion and co haven't paid off their debt since the last leadership race.
And of course they're going to have to consider the fact that harper is probably going to win his lawsuit, and 3.5 million bucks will get sucked out of the ever-smaller kitty on top of it all.
If the next eleciton happens in the next 4 years, the libs won't be renting their transport from air inuit - they'll be renting from 'rent-a-wreck'.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:09:31 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:09
Lex Llewdor
Being losers I don't think is that relevant. If Canadians genuinely don't like the Conservatives (and there is some evidence that about a third of Canadians are still afraid of them), the Liberals need to present themselves to the people - on the ground - as the best remedy. They need to do this on a large scale between elections over a period of years.
This will require a very large cohort of dedicated volunteers who will work tirelessly to make it happen. This is what the Liberals need, but they've never really done it before so they don't know how. They need to learn, and learn fast. If they don't have some sort of grassroots fundraising in full swing within a year then they won't have enough time to make up financial ground before the next election.
But, the Liberals don't really inspire that sort of dedication. For years they've been the safe choice. Few people really LOVE them, but they vote for them as a sort of default position. Unfortuately, that bodes ill for future Liberal fundraising plans.
If handed a majority, I suspect Harper will eliminate the government reimbursement of campaign funds. It would be an easy political sell, and it would look like it was designed to give up and coming parties a chance (and it would). But what it would also do is kill big faltering parties very quickly. They'd spend tons of money in a campaign, lose, and then not get that money back. Only parties with a steady stream of income coming in year after year (like the CPC has, based on that old Alliance fundraising model) could keep contesting elections as they saw fit.
I think the NDP would be okay. That's a party that inspires its followers.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:34:25 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:34
Regina Beach Boy
""I think the NDP would be okay. That's a party that inspires its followers.""
This is true but who are the followers and are they more likely to get whipped into a frenzy??
[updated Tue Sep 30 18:44:57 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 18:44
As the polls keep showing time after time, the race is truly tight in most of Canada, but remember one thing.... the undecided voter is still high in all areas of Nanos Polling. Rolling polls give insight on the basic feeling of the Campaign as it unfolds. When the French debate is over tomorrow night, watch the undecided polls jump downward. After the English debate, they will in my gut feeling drop to around 10 to 15 percent. Realistically there is a great campaign going on for Harper, yes a few gaffes, and now the thing with the speech and plagerism, give me a break, this is scare and monger tactics by a dying Liberal party looking for anything to derail Harper. But yet he still holds great poll results. After the debates, I feel that Harper will show that he is truly a great PM and Dion and Layton will look like fighting sibblings and Harper will sit back and enjoy the fight, because the NDP is looking like it might just form the next official opposition due to the Dion wanna be war machine to busy fighting on both fronts, NDP and the CPC. You can have Rae, Iggy, and the rest of the Dream Team on live for the next two weeks till the election, and all this is going to do is show how weak and out of touch the LPC is and how they need a cleansing at the polls to almost erradicate their corrupt and arrogant party to the back benches of the Official Third Party.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:37:31 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:37
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Well - cpc's up again and probably will be again tomorrow (just in time for the debates) but i think this is probably a pretty accurate picture. The CPC has lost a little ground in quebec and they probably really are at 37 - 38 right now.
They may well get a little bump from the problems down south. If harper can really sell the fact that his plan is safer, smarter and less 'stupid' than a 40 billion dollar new tax and 80 billion dollars in spending that is only costed based on numbers from the beginning of the year when the economic picture was very different and oil was high, then his numbers will take a definite upswing again.
Duceppe may be a bigger factor than was originally thought in the debates - he may go after dion a lot harder than was expected.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:44:11 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:44
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I would hope the BQ are picking up 'action' at the expense of the cpc.
Good for the country, seeing as how harper HAS to be 'reined in' and the BQ is what it is, no matter what we think.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:12:46 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:12
67 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
PKS
I've been living without a land-line, cell phone only, since 2005 now. Out of say, the 100-odd people that I know, I can count on my fingers the people who are:
1) under 35, and
2) listed in the phone book.
I don't see the trend of people giving up their landlines for cell phones reversing itself. If you're not in the phone book, you don't get called by pollsters.
Not sure how much of an impact that this will make in this election, but doesn't this suggest that, as time goes on, polls are going to be less and less accurate?
[updated Tue Sep 30 18:13:12 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 18:13
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
From Truthout. Replace McCain with Harper. And Palin with every Tory who isn't Harper, from Ministers to speechwriters. lol.
[updated Tue Sep 30 20:49:47 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 20:49
33 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
these polls are now clearly showing that its time for all progressives in Canada to vote liberal. They continue to hold well over 50% of the voters intentions and with the NDP trying and failing to capture the center its time for their voters to abandon lyin Jack and vote out Harper.
Quebec will come around fr the Libs before this is over and they could reach 25 seats there if Dion can capture the hearts and minds of his own people. This is starting to happen as the focus on trying the cons is weakening there. People are now seeing that Harper is a cynical, uncaring liar who is trying to bamboozle French Canadians. They are now proving to be much smarter than him.
[updated Wed Oct 01 03:58:54 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 03:58
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
French TV debate strategy will Liberal support hit all time low?
Dion is the least liked leader in Quebec for serveral reasons, Harper has lost several points since his comments of culture, Layton and May are unlikely to gain any real support as Ducceppe will remind the French speaking people of his singular focus and his loyalty to promote his brands message.
That is the area all parties can use against him although it may backfire. The Bloc is a provincial party running in a federal election. He does not represent Canadians interests outside Quebec and is unable to form a government to address his policies.
[updated Wed Oct 01 09:17:01 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 09:17
45 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
k. Nik has suspended TPC and MBAGS for inappropriate comments. I have a post on point and I invite you to read it.
http://nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/96/13823#comment_14155
I feel overwhelmed by the Con minions on this site. larryl! It's you and me, Bud. Help!
[updated Wed Oct 01 12:07:10 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 12:07
28 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.