Nationally, the Conservatives lead the Liberals (37% to 26%) followed by the NDP at 20%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 8%.
Yesterday’s attacks on Stephen Harper resulted in negative pressure on the daily impression for him related to trust, competence and vision. However, his best PM score and ballot support for the Tories remained steady.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 28, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,055, MoE ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37 (+1)
- Liberal Party 26 (NC)
- NDP 20 (NC)
- BQ 10% (+1)
- Green Party 8% (-1)
- Undecided 12% (-4)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 36% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 15% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 7% (-1)
- Unsure 16% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 89 (-21)
- Jack Layton 59 (+5)
- Stephane Dion 43 (+8)
- Elizabeth May 20 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (NC)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
As the polls keep showing time after time, the race is truly tight in most of Ca... more
robini (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:37
Conservatives are back to a 11 point lead. The rolling averages are again moving... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 30 Sep 14:34
Another day of the status quo. It will be interesting to see what kind of an ... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:24
I believe the only real questions left are how close the Conservative Party will... more
Darryl (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:27
TPC/MBAGS was not exactly raising the level of discourse on this board. He won'... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 01 Oct 12:38
You really think it's "still anyone's to win"? I think it would take something m... more
Darryl (Ontario) 30 Sep 14:49
Comments
MichaelFox
Another day of the status quo.
It will be interesting to see what kind of an impact, if any, the turbulence in the markets will have on the results going forward. All parties will try to spin it to their advantage.
The percentage undecided went down by a lot today. Voting intentions are firming up.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:24:12 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:24
25 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
I believe the only real questions left are how close the Conservative Party will get to a majority on Oct. 14 and how many seats can the NDP really win.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:27:49 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:27
MichaelFox
I'd put the NDP between 35-40 seats with their current polling numbers. I think they'll pick up a few in BC and the east but lose one or two in Ontario, like Parkdale-High Park.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:34:39 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:34
Darryl
Yeah I don't think they'll really get any kind of major breakthrough like some people are saying (mostly based on the national poll numbers they are up to lately). The liberals will still have the 2nd most seats unless something really bad happens to them in the last 2 weeks.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:37:25 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:37
Darryl, your wrong on your reasoning, the debates will ultimately resolve this majority and minority thing once and for all. The LPC, will be basically wiped out after this election, due to its flip flopping policies and rude attacks by Rae, Iggy and Goodale on live TV. This only makes the LPC look extremely desparate and worried that the comfort zones they feel that they own, are now in trouble. So bring on the debates and lets enjoy the bloodletting. Thanks.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:42:19 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:42
HC in AB
But they will gain a about 3 close ones from the libs in northern ontario, check the numbers on the ctv battleground riding tracking.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:09:24 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:09
Foxer
Well yes - and to be honest those realistically were the questions from the beginning. Nobody really thought the libs could win. It's a question of how bad they'll lose and could layton win.
20 percent is good for layton - but i'm slightly surprised he hasn't done better. I suspect people still don't think he could form opposition - 40 some odd years of history is hard to get over for many :) His job at the debates will be to absolutely convince people that he can be and should be the opposition leader. If he can sell that message and look like a better leader than dion, he may well finally break out. If the libs bleed even 2 points to him, people will start to believe and he could take off.
If he's VERY lucky - the polls will put him closer to the libs tomorrow.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:37:24 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:37
Foxer
As a side note - i think 'majority vs non majority' is going to depend largely on voter turn out. I think it's going to be close in a lot of ridings and who gets the folks out to vote will make all the difference.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:38:21 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:38
Yes voter turn out is a major issue, but remember that now the NDP actually have a chance to split the vote with the LPC and send Harper on a one way trip to Majority Land, all expenses paid by the Greens too. LOL. Lets hope so, Im done seeing the flip flops and lame photo-ops with Dion on puppet strings while Rae and Iggy paraphrase "O How I love thee Julius Caesar" while the daggers are tucked behind their backs waiting for the election to be over to give Dion the "Brutus" meeting in the back rooms of the LPC. LOL.
Robini.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:46:19 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:46
Foxer
Well the 'vote split' is a factor, but i don't think it's as big a one as people think. I think it'll mostly result in seat swaps between the libs and ndp and won't actually give harper a LOT of seats. Might tip him over if he's very close already.
Heh - the libs do read a little like 'julius ceaser' these days don't they :) If pee wee herman played ceaser that is.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:03:21 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:03
westerner (suspended)
Layton's tax and spend policy could not have been timed any worse. It was just before the major market melt down and voters are in no mood for big tax increases and new government programs. Time to batten down the hatches.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:47:13 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:47
Definately agree. Layton has to stop the pitch of forming the next PM and get on the Official Opposition bandwagon. Sell it hard to the public in both official languages and make sure he touts that he will definately hold the next governments feet to the fire, especially if it is a minority. Wish him the best of luck, cause the LPC is in complete turmoil, Canadians can feel and read this, this TEAM thing Dion is touting is definately not resignating with Canadians, and the lame attacks by Dions front bench are actually hurting him more than if he stuck to his policies.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:51:13 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:51
HC in AB
Their vote is too concentrated to get him much above 40 even at over 25%. This is why they have been able to produce around 30 seats at about 17%. The overall gain in numbers is likely to be to wide and thin to win many more than that.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:12:58 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:12
Foxer
Hard to say - they're making some real inroads in several urban ridings where they've come in second or third in the past in fairly close races.
But - you're right in that even if the libs and ndp were tied the libs would have more seats.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:30:59 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:30
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
show us the facts of those so called "inroads"!!
[updated Tue Sep 30 22:34:43 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 22:34
Foxer
Why? You've never cared about facts before when shown to you, or cared to show yours when you make statements.
How about this - how about you look it up and post what YOU find, and if you're wrong i post the proof demonstrating how you once again lied to fit your agenda.
[updated Tue Sep 30 22:36:28 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 22:36
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
How about dropping dead?
you and your fancy program on seat counts and all sorts of horsecrap are not facts nor fact driven. You plagerize others like your lying leader.
[updated Tue Sep 30 22:40:00 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 22:40
Foxer
Awwww - did your little feelings get hurt again? I know how much the truth hurts you - hearing the truth seems to be to liberals what sunlight is to vampires.
Dion's done bud. It's all over. It's just a question of how much. I told you that weeks ago. Now it's just pissing you off because i was right and you were wrong, yet again.
I hear there's a chance the bloc could form the official opposition now. First time in history the libs aren't in gov't at all :) Wouldn't that be amusing :) technically that means they could finish fourth behind the ndp.
[updated Tue Sep 30 22:45:36 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 22:45
nfitz
Based on this polling, not very close. Take a look at the Nanos (SES) polls 2 weeks before the last election. From January 10th to January 14th, the Tories ranged between 38% and 40% - in a post-debate peak. If the numbers hold, looks like another Tory minority. Though still anyone's to win.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:46:11 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:46
Darryl
You really think it's "still anyone's to win"? I think it would take something monumental to happen in order for the CPC to not get the most seats of any single party on Oct. 14.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:49:18 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:49
Foxer
Yeah - dion's lost this one.
Last election Martin (who was a far better campaigner) started far ahead of the cpc, and was able to recover some of that at the end with scare tactics.
This time dion started far below the cpc and the scare tactic thing just won't hold.
If anything's scaring people it's the idea of a dion gov't during a financial crisis.
So there's no chance of a win. Even paul martin couldn't come back from a sustained 11 point spread.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:06:20 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:06
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Martin wa sunder attack for adscam and now harper is under attack for not writing his own speeches and lying about such things as income trusts. I was amazed a the number of questions that brought up the income trust issue when the cons candidate was addressed.
[updated Tue Sep 30 22:38:11 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 22:38
Foxer
So - martin was under attack for stealing the people's money and using it to illegally fund campaigns in order to subvert the democratic process in quebec and harper is under attack because less than half a speech he gave may have been taken from someone else who gave a speech.
And in your mind - these are fairly similar? Roughly the same level of wrong doing in your mind are they?
Well - it certainly explains why the libs have so many ethical issues :)
[updated Tue Sep 30 22:41:36 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 22:41
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
If Harper drops just 5 to 6% he will lose the election and that's not w/o probability.
[updated Tue Sep 30 22:36:08 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 22:36
Foxer
No, he'll still win the election if he drops 6 percent - he'll lead the liberals by 5 at that point.
And that's not a realistic possibility. Certainly not if the best dion and friends can do is a 5 year old speech that he may have scoffed a few lines from. Ooooo the scandal!
[updated Tue Sep 30 22:43:12 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 22:43
nfitz
Well the Conservatives certainly have the edge, and there would have to be some events. Though things seem to be pointing to the status-quo, another Conservative minority, perhaps even weaker than before. I don't see this as a win for anyone. Remember that if the combined NDP/Liberal seat total hits 155 then they'll likely end up in power, even if the Conservatives have more seats. And while I don't think it's likely, I also don't think it is likely the Conservatives will achieve 155 either.
Given the beating that the Conservatives have taken lately on ethics, in the French-language debate, and their failure to actually produce their platform yet (which seems bizarre given they knew when the election was coming), I'd say anything can happen - though there would have to be some kind of event - though not necessarily monumental.
[updated Thu Oct 02 08:25:53 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 08:25
westerner (suspended)
Conservatives are back to a 11 point lead. The rolling averages are again moving them up as the week progresses. Should be a strong minority, or if the numbers work out very well a weak majority. Any others willing to predict?
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:34:48 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:34
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
As the polls keep showing time after time, the race is truly tight in most of Canada, but remember one thing.... the undecided voter is still high in all areas of Nanos Polling. Rolling polls give insight on the basic feeling of the Campaign as it unfolds. When the French debate is over tomorrow night, watch the undecided polls jump downward. After the English debate, they will in my gut feeling drop to around 10 to 15 percent. Realistically there is a great campaign going on for Harper, yes a few gaffes, and now the thing with the speech and plagerism, give me a break, this is scare and monger tactics by a dying Liberal party looking for anything to derail Harper. But yet he still holds great poll results. After the debates, I feel that Harper will show that he is truly a great PM and Dion and Layton will look like fighting sibblings and Harper will sit back and enjoy the fight, because the NDP is looking like it might just form the next official opposition due to the Dion wanna be war machine to busy fighting on both fronts, NDP and the CPC. You can have Rae, Iggy, and the rest of the Dream Team on live for the next two weeks till the election, and all this is going to do is show how weak and out of touch the LPC is and how they need a cleansing at the polls to almost erradicate their corrupt and arrogant party to the back benches of the Official Third Party.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:37:31 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:37
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Well - cpc's up again and probably will be again tomorrow (just in time for the debates) but i think this is probably a pretty accurate picture. The CPC has lost a little ground in quebec and they probably really are at 37 - 38 right now.
They may well get a little bump from the problems down south. If harper can really sell the fact that his plan is safer, smarter and less 'stupid' than a 40 billion dollar new tax and 80 billion dollars in spending that is only costed based on numbers from the beginning of the year when the economic picture was very different and oil was high, then his numbers will take a definite upswing again.
Duceppe may be a bigger factor than was originally thought in the debates - he may go after dion a lot harder than was expected.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:44:11 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:44
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I would hope the BQ are picking up 'action' at the expense of the cpc.
Good for the country, seeing as how harper HAS to be 'reined in' and the BQ is what it is, no matter what we think.
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:12:46 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 15:12
67 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
PKS
I've been living without a land-line, cell phone only, since 2005 now. Out of say, the 100-odd people that I know, I can count on my fingers the people who are:
1) under 35, and
2) listed in the phone book.
I don't see the trend of people giving up their landlines for cell phones reversing itself. If you're not in the phone book, you don't get called by pollsters.
Not sure how much of an impact that this will make in this election, but doesn't this suggest that, as time goes on, polls are going to be less and less accurate?
[updated Tue Sep 30 18:13:12 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 18:13
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
From Truthout. Replace McCain with Harper. And Palin with every Tory who isn't Harper, from Ministers to speechwriters. lol.
[updated Tue Sep 30 20:49:47 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 20:49
33 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
these polls are now clearly showing that its time for all progressives in Canada to vote liberal. They continue to hold well over 50% of the voters intentions and with the NDP trying and failing to capture the center its time for their voters to abandon lyin Jack and vote out Harper.
Quebec will come around fr the Libs before this is over and they could reach 25 seats there if Dion can capture the hearts and minds of his own people. This is starting to happen as the focus on trying the cons is weakening there. People are now seeing that Harper is a cynical, uncaring liar who is trying to bamboozle French Canadians. They are now proving to be much smarter than him.
[updated Wed Oct 01 03:58:54 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 03:58
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
French TV debate strategy will Liberal support hit all time low?
Dion is the least liked leader in Quebec for serveral reasons, Harper has lost several points since his comments of culture, Layton and May are unlikely to gain any real support as Ducceppe will remind the French speaking people of his singular focus and his loyalty to promote his brands message.
That is the area all parties can use against him although it may backfire. The Bloc is a provincial party running in a federal election. He does not represent Canadians interests outside Quebec and is unable to form a government to address his policies.
[updated Wed Oct 01 09:17:01 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 09:17
45 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
k. Nik has suspended TPC and MBAGS for inappropriate comments. I have a post on point and I invite you to read it.
http://nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/96/13823#comment_14155
I feel overwhelmed by the Con minions on this site. larryl! It's you and me, Bud. Help!
[updated Wed Oct 01 12:07:10 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 12:07
28 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.