CPAC-Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives still lead by 10 points. On the daily leadership index score, Stephen Harper has regained ground lost on Friday and Saturday as a result of the focus on Lee Richardson and his comment related to Dion wanting an economic downturn for political gain. Ontario is a tight race and the BQ are still doing well in Quebec, likely buoyed up by Harper’s culture and crime comments. Every election problem for Stephen Harper to date has been short term and his personal leadership numbers have recovered after a couple of days.
Of note, the beginning of the campaign has tended to focus on the floundering Dion Liberal campaign and the Liberal numbers have suffered. With Harper musing about a stronger mandate, expect a possible shift in focus to the Conservatives and a change in the shape of the campaign. Although Layton’s leadership numbers continue to do well compared to the past, CPAC-Nanos still has the NDP six points back of the Liberals.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 27, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1010, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 36 (NC)
- Liberal Party 26 (-1)
- NDP 20 (+1)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Undecided 16% (-2)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 35% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (+2)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 110 (+18)
- Jack Layton 54 (+4)
- Stephane Dion 35 (-18)
- Elizabeth May 17 (+6)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (-1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Ten points! That's insurmountable in just 2 weeks. Or is it? Trust that Mr. H... more
rsharp (Québec) 29 Sep 14:17
Again - not many surprises leading up to the debates. Ndp up one, libs down one.... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 29 Sep 14:07
Steady as she goes. I can't wait for the debate. I wonder if it will shake thi... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 29 Sep 14:34
What made that even more entertaining when Ralph did it was that he and Chrétien... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 29 Sep 18:30
Stephen Harper is simultaneously attacked by left wingers for being too right wi... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 29 Sep 18:36
"their" platform.... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 29 Sep 18:37
Comments
Foxer
Again - not many surprises leading up to the debates. Ndp up one, libs down one. That's not any real movement, tho it does suggest that the ndp and libs probably are fairly close (statistically tied technically, tho i'm confident the ndp is still trailing the libs somewhat).
The 'drop" we saw again over the weekend for the cpc will take another day or so to clear, and we'll see if it was a glitch or a trend.
These numbers would result in a much stronger minority for the cpc, with the libs reduced and ndp gaining slightly.
2 days to the debates :) exciting!
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:07:09 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:07
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Ten points! That's insurmountable in just 2 weeks. Or is it?
Trust that Mr. Harper will continue his gaffes (including his "team" of poodles). Trust Mr. Harper to say as little as posible about the way he would wreck our great country, should he ever get a majority.
This man is very, very scary.
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:17:42 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:17
148 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
Steady as she goes. I can't wait for the debate. I wonder if it will shake things up at all.
I still don't agree with all of the hype about the NDP. It seems like they do this every election and they come up empty handed every time. For all of the talk, they're barely polling higher than they were in the last election.
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:34:49 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:34
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gfthompsonjr
I think you are spot on with the NDP...
Now that they are within striking distance of the Liberals (or tied as some polls have indicated) I think there will be much more scrutiny on their campaign and consequently they will have a difficult time defending many of their proposals. Therefore, I predict that they have peaked and that they may very well lose 3%-4% nationally.
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:47:51 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:47
Lex Llewdor
I genuinely prefer the NDP proposals to the Liberal prosposals. Sure, they'd be expensive, but at elast I understand what the goals are. Dion's Green Shift is almost nonsensical.
The reason the NDP look so good here is because of the weak Liberal support. The Liberals have never received less than 28% of the vote in any Canadian federal election ever held, and now they're polling below that mark. That frees up some leftist voters, and those voters have to go somewhere.
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:29:29 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:29
psiclone
I am speaking from the perspective of out west BC and I can tell you now that the NDP are making a huge move and the LPC has given up out here I have never seen anything like the support the NDP are getting locall out here it is out and out unbelievable it's like all the pent up frustration and then the Green Shaft went right through the Liberal heart and they are moving to the NDP. That's right folks add this to the ABC movement and their choice is NDP as well so what we have happening out here is a perfect storm where west of Ontario there may be no LPC mp's = this could happen there is not one LPC riding on vancouver island that is in play right now and the one's in Vancouver can't get money minute the phone rings and they mention Liberals the phone gets hung up. I am 54 and have never seen anything like what is going on here all the local polls and radio talk shows spend more time figuring out how bad the Lib's are dfoing and whether or not it will be a rout!
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:01:25 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:01
HC in AB
I agree with the NDP comment. Their core vote is concentrated to TO, 3 or 4 industrial ridings (think southwestern ON and Hamilton), about 5 ridings in Northern Ontario, a couple of ridings in Winnipeg and a half a dozen in BC as well as one or two ridings in the Maritimes. This vote has worked very effeciently for them in producing wins. My observation would be that the increase in their vote is pretty wide and thin, with the possible exception of Montreal where they could allow the Bloc up the middle to take some liberal seats. Expect to see 30 plus from them. They will take some seats from the Libs in Northern ON (very close last time out, see the battleground results from 2006) and likely pick up a couple of seats in BC.
I don't put much credence in the debates due to the format. It will be five leaders trying to shout each other down, Mr. Harper will try to look calm and "Prime Ministerial", Mr. Layton will jump and down like a yappy little puppy, Mr. Duceppe will try to tell the world that only he can represent the interests of Quebec, Mr. Dion will try to attack Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton and basically not be able to justify his defacto support of the Conservative Government and try to hide from his Green Shift, and Ms. May will try to move all issues back to her "one trick pony".
And they all will be preaching to their respective chiors and the debates will change nothing....
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:20:05 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:20
HC in AB
Whoops, I missed a point, the interesting thing to observe will how effecient the Liberal vote will be at 25% or so. Outside of TO it could be too wide and thin to produce very much outside of the Maritimes. Think in terms of the Reform/Alliance producing 66 seats out 25.5% but only because of the concentration of the vote in Western Canada.
Let the games roll on.....
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:27:38 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:27
Lex Llewdor
That's fundamentally how to PCs were reduced to 2 seats in 1993. They got 16% of the vote. Though, the more concentrated Reform vote gained 52 seats on 18.6% of the vote, and the even more concentrate Bloc vote garnered 54 seats on only 13.5% of the vote.
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:34:34 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:34
Foxer
True. The ndp vote seems to be strengthening in some key urban ridings.
And the fact is they didn't miss by much in a lot of ridings last time. Even a one percent increase over the libs could hand them as many as ten ridings.
But more importantly they have momentum. And if they can keep that - it'll be a big deal in the last two weeks.
The fact is - dion didn't exactly put up much fight for harper when he was opposition. And there's a good chance going into the last week layton is going to remind folks of that again and again and again.
Layton cannot win the opposition seat by himself - that's a given. He's ok, but he just doesn't run a strong enough campaign. BUT - if the libs start to bleed - they could bleed into laytons camp and layton wins by absorbing disenfranchised libs.
Which would be ironic considering that that's pretty much how dion got the leadership :)
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:07:13 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:07
I agree the "die-hard" party voters vote for their party and are immune to most of the media and spin presented by each party. Do you agree?
In a highly negative campaign people are turned off and do not vote. Do you agree?
I also suspect the majority if the Gen-Y demographic who attend a post-secondary institution will not be voting again. So the parties who have been targeting that vote will not see a benefit again.
I also think more and more Canadians becoming apathetic to our elections in general.
I am noticing a trend of fewer and fewer signs on "homeowners" property vs placement on public land. Do you agree?
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:26:35 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:26
HC in AB
I agree with your Gen Y comment. My kids are 19 and 21 and attending University at York in TO and Brock in St. Catharines. They say they won't be bothered to vote because "their guy" has no chance of being elected.
I tell them that every vote counts in as much as it is an indication of the general political mood of the country. If a trend is developing over a few elections, the main parties will move there to try to capture that vote (Chretian/Martin moving to the right to stave off the general rise in Reform/Alliance support).
But Gen Y is in a hurry, they don't want to wait 2 or 3 elections for the political establishment to teeter towards their current view of the world.
As to signs, here in Lethbridge AB, you would hardly know that and election is going on, but then we vote 65-70% CPC so why bother with the signs, but we do "bother" to go and express our view of the world on election day.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:41:38 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:41
Thanks for my confirmation of what I am seeing on the ground in the GTA.
I bet any party that has no chance of ever forming a government ie the NDP, Bloc or Greens could offer free post-secondary tuitions without seeing any real bump in votes from this demographic.
As a parent whose children going to post-secondary I would vote for that party to save that tuition money...lol.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:10:33 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:10
HC in AB
Tuition be damned, thats small change, got to keep them little beggars fed, watered, clothed and entertained too, and they also like to fly out to visit me occasionally... but they are both running 3.8 averages and doing the old man proud.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:24:05 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:24
Grats on good boys doing well at school. They are voting NDP (being Gen-Y) right? lol
Do they bring you Ontario beer? It is better than AB's .....
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:37:37 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:37
HC in AB
Bring Beer???? Do you have any idea what airlines are charging these days for overwieght bags.. I just have to put up with Western brewed Canadian or Kokanee from South Eastern BC. And yes, my daughter (Womens Studies at York) would vote NDP, my son (History/Education at Brock) would vote Green.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:22:05 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:22
Lex Llewdor
Dude. Big Rock. That's the best beer you'll find in western Canada.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:32:42 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:32
HC in AB
To be honest, my tastes run a little more to a really good single malt.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:42:40 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:42
When they start seeing the deductions from their pay stubs they become an instant Conservative...rofl
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:40:28 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:40
HC in AB
Not likely, a teacher and a women's studies major with an eye to a Masters Degree in social work. Both likely to be members of public sector unions. Good on them. They are following their person passions on life.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:08:12 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:08
elf
Michael Fox - I for one am very happy that Jack and the NDP have shown their hand - with them so far to the left and the CONs so far to the right maybe the small ' L' liberal people in Canada ( that is those of us with no particular axe to grind, who work, pay taxes, enjoy art etc., and who just want everyone to get along ) will hang in there - stay in the middle and vote for the Liberals who really are the party of the centre and speak to the majority of us -
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:46:27 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:46
MichaelFox
Stephen Harper is simultaneously attacked by left wingers for being too right wing, and by right wingers for drifting too far to the left. It's tough to balance that out.
The Liberals, in my opinion, have drifted to the left under Dion.
NDP policies, unfortunately, are not realistic. If they're platform were implemented, my job would literally be in jeopardy.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:36:58 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:36
MichaelFox
"their" platform.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:37:23 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:37
Foxer
There's no doubt - the Libs are hard left these days. The cpc is actually closer to the middle than any party out there, which is why they tend to get more support right now.
Dion's spending and taxing is actually higher than laytons! (hard to believe but true). His policy is a very left wing policy, and many are very uncomfortable with that.
Harper's policies are more moderate and middle of the road. Sensible spending without massive cuts.
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:02:44 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:02
HC in AB
I agree with you Foxer, the CPC took advantage of the sponsership scandal etc. to get into government and then have governed from the centre, effectively pushing the LPC to the left into NDP territory.
You will not win an election by a massive overhaul to our taxation structure (ie. the "Green Shift"). Canadians like small incremental changes within the narrow path that we like to trod from the moderate right to the moderate left. The GST was the last major change to our taxation structure and was one of the reasons for the demise of the PCs.
I also agree that a lot of the Dipper proposals are not all the unpalatable except for his corporate tax proposals. When he talks about the greedy corporations and banks and oil companies he does not address the fact that most public sector and union pension plans are heavily invested in the equity markets, the same for millions of small investors invested in equity based mutual funds. So when he rails against corporations, he is, in large measure castigating the entities that are in large measure owned by what he sees as his key constituency. People are intelligent enough to fathom this and it likely one of the reasons that the Dipper support has a ceiling of around 20%. The only thing that resonates is the compensation packages of CEO's and other corporate exectives.
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:33:44 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:33
The reality is he spent more than the Liberals in did in the last HOC and now the Liberals Platform is larger than the NDP.
[updated Tue Sep 30 07:20:21 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 07:20
What's with that anyway? Two 1 or 1.5 hour job interviews of 5 people all at once for the "highest" post in the land?
[updated Tue Sep 30 05:54:45 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 05:54
christine
Again, there will be no majority with these numbers. The problem for the Conservatives is that there aren't enough close ridings for them to win in order to gain a majority. Yes, there are close ridings--65 according to the electionprediction.com web site-- but in a lot of them Conservatives aren't even in the running; for example, in BC and in Ontario the contests are more between the Liberals and NDP. Take a look at the electionprediction.com web site and you'll see what I mean.
Here's the link: http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php
Incidently, the electionprediction.com site is nothing to be scoffed at. Milton Chan started it back in 2003 and, since then has had remarkable accuracy--more than 90 per cent for the last federal election. Not quite as good as Nanos, but far, far better than Ipsos-Reid, Decima and Ekos were in 2006.
Other riding projection sites come to similar conclusions to those of electionprediction.com. For example, look at the Trendlines Research web site. They are currently predicting the following outcome for the election:
Cons: 131
Libs: 110
Bloc: 40
NDP: 26
Ind: 1
Grn: 0
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of the liberal party in this election have been greatly exaggerated.
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:16:34 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:16
20 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
harper stays where he is at 36%(hopefully worse eventually) and he gets no more than the last time. No matter that the Libs are 3% below 2006 right now, and the 'dippers' are hanging in there, it STILL comes out that the Libs get fewer seats and the dippers get more- the oppostion breaks even and of course harper is 'stuck in the mud' of his OWN making !!
THAT means a LOT of soul-searching whilst the Libs, given the time, can have a new leader by Dion stepping down - 'passing the torch' to Ignatieff as interim leader - great and better opposition - 'coronate' Ignatieff as leader and they are ready and 'ship-shape' for battle in the next election, WHICH the Libs WILL win, due to harper's inept and 'western separatist' leanings showing like a giggling teenagers slip !! LOL
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:43:36 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:43
87 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Don't you just LOVE it !! Oil is down below 96 bucks USD and in Toronto gas is going downto $1.109 today and with all the speculators jumpin' out windows in the USA on Wall St., look for it to go even further 'south' to where it belongs at about 70-75 bucks at most.
THEN, the 'oil barons' in Alberta will get the 'shakes' as their profits will be hurt bad. Maybe we'll have to 'pull an NOP' eventually to save Alberta from itself, only this time they will have to pay for it themselves. NO MORE freebies from us in Ontario. We aren't greedy and paid the 'Ottawa Valley Borden Line' gas prices to help Alberta( no choice, but we DON'T hate Alberta for that, now do we ??!! Alberta hates us for something that happened over a quarter of a century ago and NO ONE out there knows or will admit to the fact that it wasn't Ontario's fault !! They just use us for a 'scapegoat'(their MLAs and harper, and in the past MLAs of the 'day' to cover up their OWN lies to Albertans).
[updated Tue Sep 30 01:28:27 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 01:28
70 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
So with the rolling averages and the tv debate shortly we should see an increasing gap in the CPC numbers. I predict it will go back to 12-15 pts in National support putting them back in striking distance for a majority. Agreed?
The fight is for second place, not in seats but in the minds of Canadians who would best represent the official opposition. The public have put Layton (18pts) well ahead of Dion and that gap is only getting wider. The Liberals will be in great difficulty as they work to replace Dion after the election. Expect Harper to call another election in his third year or after the new liberal leader is in office for a few months. (Karma is replaying well in Canadian politics) Agreed?
Voters are very smart and going door to door this will play out very well for the CPC in the battleground ridings. Program spending is up. The CPC have spent more than the Liberals making fiscal conservatives unhappy with the growth above the Liberal 6.7% program spending. 905, 519 will go to Harper. Agreed?
The CPC continues to do surgical spending announcements: "families" with culture tax credits and bypassing the "Gatekeepers" of culture to their dismay. If the "Artists" come out and protest again, Harper support will shoot up more. The question at the door is do parents know best or a Arts Council staffer what is Canadian culture?
Divide and conquer politics.
Chretien, Harper, Bush, Clinton, are very smart when it comes to tapping into minds of voters. Their results are evident. Agreed?
[updated Tue Sep 30 07:48:25 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 07:48
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Harper plagerized a major speech on Iraq:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/508742
Bruce Campion-Smith
Ottawa Bureau Chief
OTTAWA–Stephen Harper's 2003 speech urging Canadian troops to be sent to Iraq copied almost word-for-word parts of a speech that Australian Prime Minister John Howard had delivered just days earlier, Liberals charged today.
Bob Rae, the party's foreign affairs critic, played tapes of the two speeches revealing that Harper parroted Howard's own arguments why Australian troops should be dispatched into the controversial conflict.
What a sleazeball and what a lovely present for his opponents going into the French debate where French Canadians are not only against the war but punish pols who lie and cheat. I hope Dion makes him wear that for the rest of the election and years to come.
[updated Tue Sep 30 11:10:43 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 11:10
73 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
My comment is about the other day when the Aboriginal Leaders held a press confrence.
Again the governments are ignoring the plights of the First Nations and again another election will go by with no new news on what all governments will do to address the poverty and embarrassment that scars our country on the treatment of our Natives!!! I know and I'm sure that many Canadians want to know what actually happens to the 5 to 7 billion dollars we take out of the Canadian Taxpayer? Simple... lots and lots of Indian Beauracracy!!! By the time the money actually filters down to the reserves around Canada, the little that isn't eaten up by greed, corruption and who the Chief of the day is in some of these beuracracies, then the people looking for relief like fresh water, food, schooling and addictions help, don't get it. It has been this way since the Liberals in the Chreiten days made unrealistic promises to the First Nations, and since then it has been a clusterbomb of finger pointing in all levels of government!! Again the First Nations come on TV with cap in hand wanting more money!! Understandable, but it is hard to fix old land claims, revenue sharing and royalties in the mines around the Great North. The best way that any government can fix this problem is to number one stop the interior corruption in the First Nations!!Get rid of all the bloated beuracrats and fire them. Appoint only one government official to handle the funds and infrastructure in each province on a need to need basis. This will instantly have effects on the First Nations. It is fully understandable that the First Nations want to appoint leaders for each and every creed and race of Natives, but this eats up the money, and it basically screws all the Natives by paying off the Fat Cats first, and by letting them deal with the monies without oversight. With only one official per province with the funding money, this eliminates corruption and with the Chiefs of each Nation ready to build and fix the infrastructure in their own communities without the grandstanding of the bigwigs in the First Nations, the work will actually get done with government oversight on the purse strings. Sounds so simple, unfortunately greed and power come first in all races and creeds including First Nations. So here we go again in another election with no rules, oversight or even a mention of proper help for First Nations. Round and round we go. Rob
[updated Tue Sep 30 12:11:31 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 12:11
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
ABC vs reality
The federal election campaign spilled on to the floor St. John's council chambers Monday evening, with the mayor attacking the Liberals' carbon tax plan.
Dennis O'Keefe said a review by city staff indicated that the Liberals' Green Shift would cost the city about $800,000 a year by 2012.
"[It's] kind of offensive to some degree, I suppose, when we as a municipality [are] trying to provide services to people who live here, and in the meantime we're taxed on our ability to do that," O'Keefe said.
Danny Williams is getting some ABC pushback.
Remember Green Shift promises to be neutral to the "government" not to the polluters.
Please raise your hand if your a polluter
Taxpayer
Farmer
Trucker
City
Province
Company
Hockey Mom with lipstick
and yes the cheque is in the mail!
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:06:52 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:06
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Interesting Survey from CBC website
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/votertoolkit/economy-poll-other-debate.html
X-Challenge: Economy
In what broad direction do you think the Canadian economy is going?
Have you personally been able to save money this year?
Where has your pocketbook been hit hardest recently?
How can the federal government most effectively improve Canada's economy?
What would most effectively improve Canadians' overall wealth?
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:24:48 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:24
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