CPAC-Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives still lead by 10 points. On the daily leadership index score, Stephen Harper has regained ground lost on Friday and Saturday as a result of the focus on Lee Richardson and his comment related to Dion wanting an economic downturn for political gain. Ontario is a tight race and the BQ are still doing well in Quebec, likely buoyed up by Harper’s culture and crime comments. Every election problem for Stephen Harper to date has been short term and his personal leadership numbers have recovered after a couple of days.
Of note, the beginning of the campaign has tended to focus on the floundering Dion Liberal campaign and the Liberal numbers have suffered. With Harper musing about a stronger mandate, expect a possible shift in focus to the Conservatives and a change in the shape of the campaign. Although Layton’s leadership numbers continue to do well compared to the past, CPAC-Nanos still has the NDP six points back of the Liberals.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 27, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1010, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 36 (NC)
- Liberal Party 26 (-1)
- NDP 20 (+1)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Undecided 16% (-2)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 35% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (+2)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 110 (+18)
- Jack Layton 54 (+4)
- Stephane Dion 35 (-18)
- Elizabeth May 17 (+6)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (-1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Ten points! That's insurmountable in just 2 weeks. Or is it? Trust that Mr. H... more
rsharp (Québec) 29 Sep 14:17
Again - not many surprises leading up to the debates. Ndp up one, libs down one.... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 29 Sep 14:07
Steady as she goes. I can't wait for the debate. I wonder if it will shake thi... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 29 Sep 14:34
What made that even more entertaining when Ralph did it was that he and Chrétien... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 29 Sep 18:30
Stephen Harper is simultaneously attacked by left wingers for being too right wi... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 29 Sep 18:36
"their" platform.... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 29 Sep 18:37
Comments
Foxer
Again - not many surprises leading up to the debates. Ndp up one, libs down one. That's not any real movement, tho it does suggest that the ndp and libs probably are fairly close (statistically tied technically, tho i'm confident the ndp is still trailing the libs somewhat).
The 'drop" we saw again over the weekend for the cpc will take another day or so to clear, and we'll see if it was a glitch or a trend.
These numbers would result in a much stronger minority for the cpc, with the libs reduced and ndp gaining slightly.
2 days to the debates :) exciting!
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:07:09 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:07
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Ten points! That's insurmountable in just 2 weeks. Or is it?
Trust that Mr. Harper will continue his gaffes (including his "team" of poodles). Trust Mr. Harper to say as little as posible about the way he would wreck our great country, should he ever get a majority.
This man is very, very scary.
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:17:42 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:17
148 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
psiclone
The only scary part about Harper is his ability to drive left wing nuts crazy. Quite frankly I find this facet of his character rather appealing the LPC should be so lucky to find their own Harper someday, but after this election and if my numbers hold out we will be seeing Dion go down in Canadian history as the lowest ranking leader the LPC ever had right now he is tied or below Turner and heading for Brown territory (depending on the poll but all basically agree with approx and trends) and this time the NDP is gaining momentum (out west hand back east) and who knows maybe the ABC crowd will start thinking about moving to the NDP in which case the LPC may and who knows become the official opposition ... do not rule this out!
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:30:45 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:30
Hmmm. You are fascinated by the unknown. I'll take the tried and true, thank you.
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:37:31 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:37
Get with it people. If Mr. Harper wins a majority we are in for a sea change the likes of which we've never seen. He will turn back the clock on every social advance you want to name.
He must be stopped.!
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:48:51 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:48
Foxer
Oh don't be so silly. Of course he won't. If anything we'll advance. Millions of business women who are entrepreneurs will suddenly have the same rights working women have taken for granted for years, gays will still be getting married (the poor fools :) ) and if anything we'll get more rights under the charter and possibly even more democracy if he goes ahead with senate reform. Lets try to keep it in the realms of reality here.
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:11:00 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:11
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Why the comment - 'The poor fools' - jerk - 'foxer' - You're better than that, or are you ??
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:07:00 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:07
Foxer
Quite simple - those guys have had a valid excuse to avoid the problems of marriage for years and they threw it away! :) :) :) Now they're stuck with all the joys of marriage, divorce, etc that the hetero's have had to deal with for years :) :)
(kinda surprised you didn't get that one :) )
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:36:05 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:36
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I don't believe a word of it coming from a westerner !! You meant every word in a derogatory way - period. Don't patronize me. You opened your mouth 'foxer' and stuck BOTH feet in it !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:48:28 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:48
westerner (suspended)
Parnel! TPQ! Where did you go? We have been missing you and your made up stories.
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:00:24 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:00
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I gave 'foxer' my real name for personal reasons, now get off the 'parnell' thing. I told you that I wasn't he, and even joked that he could be my handsome 'twin brother' that my dearly departed mother never told me about !! LOL
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:04:18 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:04
westerner (suspended)
Are you still the MBAGS from Toronto who is rich and winters in Florida after working 30 years in a GM plant? Yes, I think you have a twin brother who is TPQ in drag.
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:39:38 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:39
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
mbags...you are dealing with an idiot who has no clue about anything. I was away overseas for a week or so on a business trip and the idiot now believes I morphed into you. Just flag all those posts like that as inappropriate and I would think the moderator will eventually act.
In nay event westerner hasn't had anything intelligent to say for some time so ignoring him is a valid option.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:06:14 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:06
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
TPQ - Thaks, if you're legitimate. I'll choose what I'll reply to, but I have zapped plenty of the garbage and there's LOTS of it.
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:24:30 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:24
Foxer
Well that's just stupid. Sounds like you'd be the one with 'prejudice' issues. Honestly - join us here in the 21'st century and leave your bullcrap ideology behind.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:00:28 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:00
HC in AB
Some of us have found the institution of marraige very difficult to make successsful on a personal basis. What he is saying is "why do they want that". Fair comment, from my personal experience.
My daughter, who is doing a women's study degree from one of our country's major universities, quotes some of her professors as saying that the mainstream is using gay marriage to co-opt the "queer" lifestyle into the mainstream society.
Foxers comments is about the foibles that many of us face in life, and should be nodded at and smiled at as such.
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:46:13 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:46
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
NOT for the gay community!! They wanted this to happen and have every right to it. 'foxer' made purposeful fun of them. That's unforgivable. I'm as straight as they come and I'm NO great 'fan' of the idea of the 'gay lifestyle' being heterosexual myself, but one must NOT make scurrilous remarks demeaning gays like 'foxer' did. I can forgive him, as he knows not what he says is hurtful to the gay community but people like 'foxer' have to learn to live and let live.
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:05:26 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:05
HC in AB
Oh come on, I have gay colleages at work, and some gay people in my social circle, some of whom have married and some married and divorced, They would have a bit of a chuckle at Foxer's comments, given the challenges of maintaining any relationship under any circumstances.
Personally, whether or not gay marriage happens or not does not impact me one way or the other. If it is an important thing to some, so be it, live and let live.
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:19:29 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:19
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
'HC' - Congratulations - now tell THAT to 'foxer'. He can think it but it's WRONG to say it on this forum. If he's gonna say such things. he should say it to your gay friends and not USE them for ridiculous effect with me !!
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:43:36 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:43
HC in AB
I'm sure that Foxer can read, and to ridicule you is not a particularily difficult task. For the most part it is self-inflicted on your part.
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:51:04 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:51
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Suit yourselves. I couldn't care less. Being a night person, big time and retired - I can deal with you people half of the night - no sweat. I couldn't get this much 'vaudeville' entertainment if I payed for it !! You guys are a riot !! LOL
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:54:31 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:54
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
mbags... hes not better for sure and even worse than Duceppe
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:16:04 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:16
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
TPQ - If you say so. You seem to know these 'people' !!
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:28:43 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:28
Regina Beach Boy
""This man is very, very scary""
""He must be stopped.!""
""I'll take the tried and true, ""
LOL, Did you miss your Valium today? you can't really believe Canadian's are dumb enough to believe your Chicken Little
rantings, you can see by the polls that the average Canadian is far brighter than you and your party give them credit for. Beer and Peanuts indeed.
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:23:39 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:23
k. I will answer all 20+ posts, almost all of which will be nasty, like yours. Let's see, I must have missed my Valium today, I'm dumb, Chicken Little, ranting....
Care to back that up Regina Beach Boy, or or are you limited to name-calling?
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:44:54 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:44
Lex Llewdor
Do you have even a single piece of evidence that he would do that? Even one?
Because I don't.
He's not a strongly traditional guy - his wife (Laureen Teskey) didn't even take his last name. And while Harper's fairly religious, Laureen isn't a church-goer.
So he grants his wife social freedoms. Why would he deny them to the rest of the country?
Harper is, first an foremost, an economist. I don't think he even cares about issues that aren't economic.
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:27:12 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:27
larryl
Lex. You asked for proof. 2. MODERATION. "Canada is not yet a conservative or Conservative country," Flanagan warns. "We can't win if we veer too far to the right..."
The new Conservative party was created specifically to contest with the Liberals for power, so overt displays of ideology will be avoided. The Conservatives famous campaign promises of 2006 were almost entirely free of ideology. Opponents will only succeed by exposing true motives and ideology. Just one paragragh pretty much says it all. Those are his words and are pretty clear.
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:50:13 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:50
Lex Llewdor
Those are his words, and you're reading meaning into them.
That just sounds like good political advice. There was nothing there about intent or social conservatism specifically at all.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:09:28 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:09
larryl
lex. no specifics but clearly he was saying to hide their real ideology.with a majority we would find out what they are up to.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:25:51 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:25
Peggy
What are they up to? Basic common sense -things that the average Canadian are now seeing that this is the way to go!
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:37:50 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:37
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
YEP !! - The average ALBERTAN, YOU MUST MEAN !! 'peggy'
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:22:58 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:22
westerner (suspended)
More MBAGS bigotry towards Alberta!
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:56:13 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:56
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
It's NOT bigotry - It's the truth !! I couldn't care less what you say or don't say about Alberta. It's a done deal. They are going to provide harper with 28 seats and who cares. It was a slam-dunk to start with. There's NO politics in Alberta, just 'back-scratching' and 'feeding at the trough' due to 'indoctrinated' voters. How boring can you get !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:52:19 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:52
westerner (suspended)
It is pure and adulterated BIGOTRY. We should report you to the Ontario Human Rights Commission!!
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:00:25 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:00
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Please do !! LOL
Oh - BTW - Report 'foxer' for flagrant deprecating language against the gay community while you're at it - saves time and paper !!
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:33:56 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:33
HC in AB
I am an Albertan and proud of it. I take huge offense that somehow makes me less of a Canadian than you.
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:48:28 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:48
Foxer
Settle down HC - he's just angry that ontario is basically now the west's biatch in stead of the other way around :)
After 130 years of believing they were the center of the universe, that's bound to make a few of them a little pissy. :)
Seriously tho mbags - you're comments are pretty over the top. If you can't keep your prejudices and hate mongering in check, maybe online forums aren't the best place for you.
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:14:22 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:14
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Then join with the rest of Canada and stop kicking the crap out of people like me from Ontario. You're SO 'indoctrinated' to hate us that you won't even try to find any good. We're NO different than you guys, we just don't hate like you do. It's preposterous to take something that may or may not have happened and carry it on for 2 and 1/2 generations !!
Be a Canadian first, and prove it and get off the Aberta first 'bandwagon' which purely states, piss on the rest of the country, especially Ontario !!
For crying out loud - you've latched on to an imposter who passes himself off as pm by default. OK, he won in 2006, through NONE of his own doing.
That being said, you build a fence around Alberta, harper 'feeds' on that and you have NO politics in your province !! The REAL world can't get in !! You're isolated from the rest of Canada and most of you have NO idea why. You just blindly follow anyone who 'stakes a claim' to protect Alberta from the 'boogie man' which DOESN'T exist !!
We don't lay claim to your oil. We don't want your money. We simply want you Albertans to grow up and join Canada !! It's a great country and a heck of a LOT better than the USA as some of your rather foolish citizens seem to prefer that you join them !!
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:18:25 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:18
HC in AB
Fine, send a memo to your buddy Dion, we don't want Albertas $10 billion per year, tell them to keep it and take a hike, us good folks in Ontario will pick up the difference on equalization all by ourselves,.... oh, forgot, Mr. McGuinty may have a bit of an issue with that... LOL
[updated Tue Sep 30 01:09:23 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 01:09
larryl
Peg. Are you sure you want to use the term common sense . The people of Ontario remember the "Common Sense" revolution that Mike the Knife led us through and I guarantee we don't want to go through that again. Harris left office as the second most hated politician after Lyin Brian Flaherty Clement and Baird would definitely not want you reminding us of that before the election.
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:16:03 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:16
Peggy
And Bob Rae.......??????????
[updated Tue Sep 30 07:36:49 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 07:36
larryl
Peg. Bob Rae was given, did not win,power when the recession was imminent to allow for exactly what everyone is doing, The Grits called the election ahead of time and the Tories ran a lousy campaign because they did not want to be in power during the recession. More importantly Rae did not run on the Harris Common Sense Revolution and then cut every government program because Mike cut revenues from corporations. If we are in for more common sense we will be in trouble . Maybe they will let Smilin Jack win a minority so they can blame him for the fiscal mess that is coming.
[updated Tue Sep 30 08:38:28 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 08:38
Lex Llewdor
But that's my point - it's not clear at all. you're just taking vague remarks and using them to foment fear and mistrust.
It's underhanded, and it's dishonest.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:25:10 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:25
larryl
Lex. Maybe you would like to read the whole article and see for yourself how clear his statements were . Google The Harper Index. or other articles about the brains behind the CPC. ideology and agenda. Some interesting stuff the average voter is unaware of and has been kept as quiet as possible.
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:22:54 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:22
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
'larryl' - YEP !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:21:29 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:21
westerner (suspended)
Elect Harper and the sky will fall! Help us! The doom and gloomers are out in force today.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:42:07 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:42
larryl
westerner. I will go back 3 or 4 months and show you where I predicted global economic collapse but was labelled a wacko conspiracy nut. Check back with me tommorrow, no time right now.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:31:49 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:31
Any opinion about the scary prospect of a Harper majority meets with stiff resistance from many of you folks. "Silly" and "Chicken Little" are among the kindest things I've been called.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:04:24 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:04
Foxer
I can imagine. If they were the worst i'd suggest you get out of the house more :)
And there's a difference between 'opinion' and 'propaganda'. Your posts for the most part have been the latter, and i think you know that as well as i do.
Mind you, you've thrown quite a few doozies yourself. Your insults have been far worse than 'silly' come to think of it.
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:17:59 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:17
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Well put !! But remember, flanagan is the 'brains' behind the 'bully' and is slinkier than a snake and THAT ain't easy unless you have NO scruples - flanagan 'fits the mould' perfectly !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:19:56 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:19
westerner (suspended)
Conservatives 36%, Liberals 26%. Best Prime Minister; Harper 35%., Dion 14%. Good Nanos polling data that you believe in!
Tom (the snake)Flanagan must be doing a really good job. Doesn't Dion wish he had a great advisor too.
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:29:40 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:29
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
flanagan, as your 'hero' represents what you are all about 'westerner'(s) !! dodgy, secretive, manipulating, annoying at the 'in and out' committee, whatever.
The polling numbers are all that matter. The polls for 'best' pm STILL puts harper in 'minority' territory. As harper is the ONLY one campaigning for the cpc, his 'results' are No better than the Nanos poll in general !! THAT makes him a LOSER - No majority- harper's done what he said he wouldn't do and call an election !! NOW, he's 'eating crow' !!
you know darned well if harper doesn't win a majority and is 'hamstrung' in the commons again, their will be tongues wagging, for sure.
You have to facethe fact that harper ISN'T going to get a majority - period. ANYTHING less than that leaves him with NO credibility at all with the electorate. when the time comes for his minority gov't to fall, he will be gone as was Mulroney and Diefenbaker before him and THEY were REAL conservatives(although Mulroney is now an unconvicted crook, who has 'plain brown envelopes full of illegal cash' and owes Canada 2 million bukcs plus interest).
Your logic(or the total lack of it) does NOT add up. At 36%, he's exactly where he was in 2006.
The tide is turning. maybe the Libs will have the last minute 'loyalty' factor bring them back to vote for Dion and maybe they won't, but THAT doesn't take away from the fact that harper has made NO IMPACT in the campaign. He's gained NOTHING !! THAT is the story - period !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:40:25 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:40
westerner (suspended)
Best Prime Minister: Harper 35%, Dion 14%. Face facts!
Oh. yes "the tide is turning" again! "They are just getting out of the starting gate." Sure. Sure.
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:08:35 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:08
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
harper's 'heart' (if he has one !!) - only goes as far as from B.C. to the eastern Manitoba border. He cares less about the rest. He's an imposter in the office of pm and a disgrace to this country. The sooner he's GONE after at best a weak minority, the better for us all !!
ANY political party in Canada that has been put together with 'chewing gum and baling wire' like the cpc has been isn't worthy of being gov't. They got in on a 'fluke' - barely - thanks to 'adscam' - no 'adscam' - NO cpc gov't - period !! NO ONE can say otherwise and keep a straight face, NOT even a cpc member !! LOL
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:14:06 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:14
westerner (suspended)
Great again to see that you are conceding at least a weak minority for the Conservatives. I agree with a minority but believe from Niks Numbers that it will be stronger than previously.
You were predicting that the classic election strategy of the Liberals was "going to kick in soon" and they would "crush Harper".
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:02:31 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:02
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
That was me bird brain and I still say it will happen....things have gone that way in the past and the public is slowly dragging Harper's numbers down. His act has been caught in Quebec and he won't win any additional seats there.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:19:22 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:19
Foxer
IN the past the liberals were the incumbent, not the CPC. And dion is no Martin or Chretien.
He's a lot more like another turner. Good luck with that.
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:19:24 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:19
westerner (suspended)
I know it was you TPQ under the tag MBAGS. Did you get confused and use the wrong tag line?
MBAGS said at 19:14; "The sooner he's GONE after at best a weak minority, the better for us all."
Thanks again for conceding a minority MBAGS!
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:14:11 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:14
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I don't lie and I'm not duplicitous like you tory red necks
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:23:36 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:23
westerner (suspended)
Your rants are full of BS, untruths and hissy fits.Whether you are TPQ or MBAGS the prose is all the same. Pure nonsense.
What is "duplicitous"? Help us out. Is this a big word you learned when working at GM?
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:34:44 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:34
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I didn't use the word 'crush' and if I did you took it out of context. I would have said(if I said it) that harper was 'shocked' in 2006 when the Libs came back to get 103 seats and what was projected(except for Nanos) was at least a strong minority if not a majority. When the results were in, ALL of the media were shocked and no doubt harper was furious. Oh what 'loyalty' to one's party(Liberal) can do !! LOL
It CAN happen this time and harper, if the 'trend' stays solid, will be in the same 'muck' as before and nowhere to turn. The electorate will be POd at the money wasted on an election and will want his 'head on a platter' after the 'scandal(s)' out him as a complete fool and manipulator !!
Now IF THAT happened, then harper WOULD be 'crushed' !! 'Nuff said.
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:59:36 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:59
westerner (suspended)
You used the word crush and said the LIberals were ready to get their election campaign moving and they then would crush Harper. Dont tell fibs.
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:18:59 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:18
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Whatever !! LOL
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:40:18 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:40
HC in AB
So what you are telling me, as an Albertan, I am an "imposter" trying to masquarade as a Canadian Citizen. You sure as hell seem to like the $15,000 in personal federal income taxes that I send to Ottawa every . I AN AS CANADIAN AS YOU ARE AND PROUD OF IT!!
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:54:38 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:54
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
HC in AB.....I wouldn't call most Albertans an imposter but I would sure call them blind. They have been screwed badly by the provincial tories for many many years and federally they vote for the cons blindly as a bloc and then whine about their treatment in the federation. I call it whiners paradise
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:26:38 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:26
HC in AB
So someone who does not subscribe to your particular view of the world and your country is "blind". I can only take it that you do not subscribe to the view that in a healthy democracy that the views of all people should be heard and given equal wieght. You sir, are an intolerant bigot.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:38:31 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:38
Foxer
Modern liberalism has become steeped and based in bigotry. They are only 'tolerant' of people and views they like. Push a little, and the truth comes out - they're very intolerant and bigoted. As TPQ so aptly proves.
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:20:32 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:20
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
More BS from the attack ad creeps here
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:35:06 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:35
Foxer
LOL - followed by more of the usual 'intelligent' debate we've come to see from the libs i note :) Great argument TPQ - if you were still in elementary school that would really have been a zinger !
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:37:17 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:37
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
harper's the 'imposter'. We ALL send our taxes to Ottawa and your guy uses it for ALL the wrong reasons, but of course, he takes care of Alberta first !! Some pm for all of Canada. THATs an 'imposter' !!
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:21:16 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:21
A true economist would recognize economic trends, like the mess on Wall Street. Harper doesn't or isn't willing.
He gets way more credit for his academic credentials than warranted.
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:48:53 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:48
westerner (suspended)
A true political scientist would recognize economic trends like the mess on Wall Street. Dion gets way more credit for his academic (PHD) credentials then warranted.
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:05:10 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:05
I believe you took my words and inserted different names. How novel!
My point was that Mr. Harper is an an alleged economist. Yeah, so how come he's run up our deficit? Like he intends on spending billions more on useless, military offensive weaponry we can never use, unless we are waging war to please the Americans.
There is no pleasing those folks. Right now, they are dangerous rogues and don't you for a minute question this simple truism.
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:17:56 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:17
westerner (suspended)
"how come he has run up our deficit?" Have you any facts to back that up? The last I heard the surplus was approx. 3 billion. The opposition has been using the scare tactic that the Conservatives would be in a deficit position this budget year. That has not happened and there is instead a small surplus.
The FACTS man?
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:40:04 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:40
westerner, Harper hasn't blown the $10 billion dollar windfall he was handed by the (Chretien/Martin) Libs? Do you really want to debate this simple fact?
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:45:33 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:45
westerner (suspended)
Yes.You said in simple language "how come he has run up our deficit?" He has NOT run up a deficit! Period.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:14:50 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:14
MichaelFox
There'd be no way to know this is a fact or not, since we're only 3 months into the fiscal year.
The only fact is that the government ran a surplus in the first quarter.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:26:09 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:26
Foxer
Well in a very practical sense there is actually - if we're at about 5 billion now (which was what the last numbers just released said) and we have the projections for the next few months, we know that they're going to be pretty darn accurate. Projecting revenue a year in advance is tough, but 3 months isn't so hard, most of it has already been 'billed' so to speak.
It's almost impossible to actually go into deficit at this point.
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:22:59 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:22
HC in AB
When did 2% reduction in the GST (making the people pay less) become "blowing" the windfall. It just meant leaving the money in my pocket instead of sending it to Ottawa. That said, I am not against using surpluses to pay down the debt, thus reducing obligations to service the debt in the the future.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:42:48 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:42
Foxer
Well that's easy HC - when the libearls decided they're more 'Entitled" to your money than you are :) I should have thought you knew that :)
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:23:32 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:23
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
rsharp.....I wonder if Harper bribed some prof to even get his academic credentials. He lies and bribes just about anything in sight these days.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:28:26 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:28
HC in AB
I would suspect that it wouldn't matter to you in any case, since the universtiy is west of the Manitoba/Ontario border and in your view, is not part of Canada under any circumstance and would be unacceptable foriegn credentials.
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:16:40 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:16
Con-clones no where near as popular as the MSM fake polls would have you believe:
In every province/region (that’s right “every”) the conservatives are either within the margin of error of their 2006 election showing or worse. Put another way, there is no part of the country, no corner of Canada, that has warmed to the Conservatives in over 2 years.
Provinces / Regions where the Tories are doing worse than 2006:
Statistically significant:
Ontario (down by 2.3% even despite a ridiculous poll released by Environics which put the Tories at a whopping 41% provincially. If we factor out that one poll, they’re down by 4.4%.)
Alberta (down by 6.4%)
Statistically insignificant:
British Columbia (down by 2.5%)
Atlantic Canada (down by 2.3%)
Prairies [MB & SK] (down by 2.0%)
For those of you keeping track at home, that’s not particularly good news for the Tories in parts of Canada representing 75% of the population.
But, don’t expect to read about that in the media anytime soon.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:15:43 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:15
Foxer
Well of course you wont' see it in the msm. Because it isn't even remotely true :)
In fact they're up in bc by virtually every poll taken. They appear to be ahead in ontario too, which is considerably higher than they did last time.
They also seem to be ahead in quebec from last time, even by most of the worst numbers.
I have to say - this is yet another example of why the libs are doing so amazingly badly. The electorate is sick of dishonesty.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:19:02 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:19
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Yep - Sick of dishonesty - harper, flaherty, baird, clement, bernier, etc., etc.
If I've left anyone out, some other poster can 'fill in the blanks' and believe me they ARE 'blanks' - for REAL !! LOL
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:29:13 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:29
Foxer
All of whom have been far more honest than pretty much all the libs - martin, chretien, all the adscam boys, goodale, etc.
I've left a lot out of course, but the list would be too long for the max word count here ;)
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:37:20 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:37
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Oh yeah, honest to the 'core' - 'cadman', 'income trusts', 'in and out', '4-yr election cycle', 'breaking of word to Danny Williams', shall I go on 'foxer' ??
Pathetic !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:55:46 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:55
westerner (suspended)
Liberals honest to the core--oh yeah!
-shawinagate
-sponsorship scandal
-promise to eliminate GST
-promise to set up national daycare program
-promise to renegotiate NAFTA
Shall I go on Parnel?
Pathetic!!
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:22:18 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:22
Foxer
Heheh - exactly westerner.
Gee - Cadman, a bribe that never was (unless someone's found a life insurance company that'll give a policy to a dying man?) Income trusts - which the opposition voted for as well. And fact is - he didn't break his word to danny the dunce - he gave him a choice, keep the old plan that doesn't take oil into account or take the new plan that takes half of it into account but should pay you more money, and feel free to switch back and forth as you see fit. Man - how unfair - keep what you have or take more money.
Meanwhile - the liberals actually STOLE money from canadians.
And bob rae - still well loved for his sound fiscal management when he was premier i assume?
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:04:03 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:04
westerner (suspended)
Daniel Williams is a nobody! He hasn't the status of a medium sized city mayor. He is a cry baby who needs to grow up!
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:17:23 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:17
Enlightened one
Westerner, Very true, I grew up in NF and sad to say in my early years actually voted Liberal. luckily common sense prevailed and in the last 20 years have voted Conservative or a variation of. I am a proud Newfoundlander but have to agree that Williams is acting like a spoiled little school boy trowing a tantrum and is an embarrassment to Newfoundlanders living away.
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:23:56 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:23
Foxer, Mssrs. Goodale and Martin are dishonest? May I have your evidence?
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:56:57 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:56
Foxer, I ask again. Mssrs. Goodale and Martin are dishonest? How so? Back your crap up, my good man.
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:01:13 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:01
Foxer
What, if i don't answer in ten seconds you repeat yourself? Settle down a minute my good man :)
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:09:37 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:09
Foxer
Not hard to find bud - lets start with the very basics.
Goodale swore up and down that he was 100 percent certain the leak on income trusts did not come from anyone in his ministry. Of course - we now know it did.
Paul martin was finance minister when the libs were supposed to kill the gst, and failed. Plus he 'somehow missed' the whole income trust scandal, which (if we believe him) isn't dishonest but is certainly incompetant. And of course he broke numerous promises himself while in office, amazingly enough seeing as it was so short.
There's a pretty long list of others as well.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:08:51 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:08
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
mbags....don't forget the 148 patronage appointments he made during the summer after promising to make them the subject of a hiring commission...he hired all tories with out qualifying interviews for jobs like immigration judges
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:40:28 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:40
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
NOT surprising and NOT announced too loud either. Typical harper politics. Tell the people one thing and do the exact opposite. 'Imposter' is a good 'handle' for harpoon !! LOL
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:31:11 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:31
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
'attila' - I should have thought of that !! Jolly good show, mate !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:26:35 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:26
westerner (suspended)
Since these are "fake polls" and you are such an expert you should go into the polling business and show the others how it is done. I hear it is a very lucrative business. But watch out! Layton and Dion will increase your corporate taxes.
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:34:24 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:34
westerner (suspended)
You won't stop him talking to the converted on this blog.You will need to get out on the streets and make your point. Get involved!
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:39:22 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:39
Peggy
I hope he does-he comes from an area where everyone works and they are running the country right now anyway!! We've heard the least about Quebec/separation etc. over the past 2.5 years because we have a leader who people are starting to see is really GOOD.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:34:24 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:34
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
'peggy' - Yeah - and to think he was born in Toronto in 1959 - moved to Calgary and got 'indoctrinated' !! NO - NOT educated - 'indoctrinated' - period !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:31:32 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:31
elf
rsharp - despite the opinions of dissenters to your post I completely agree with you - these people who believe everything they have been told by Harper are in for a shock; Harper has shown us that he is incapable of keeping his word so to ask him anything and to believe his answer would be insane - the definition of insanity is to repeat an action and expect a different outcome - asking Harper is he will or will not do this or that is meaningless - he will break his word like he has already done many times just in the past year !! They say we get the government we deserve and maybe we will - Harper may indeed get into office but I am sure that after a short while many people will be regretting their desisions to support him.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:37:47 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:37
Lex Llewdor
Wait, what? Harper doesn't keep his promises, so we should vote Liberal? The Liberals broke more campaign promises than anyone else in history.
Plus, Harper, for the most part, hasn't been able to govern except at the whim of the opposition. We simply cannot fairly judge the performance of a minority government.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:27:19 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:27
Foxer
Quite true lex - if Elf believed what she said - she'd vote ndp. They're the only ones who haven't broken an election promise once in power. Of course - they've never BEEN in power, but still.
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:26:19 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:26
thx elf, I do feel lonely out here, sometimes.
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:50:21 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:50
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
rsharp don't feel lonely.....you are being attacked by low lifes.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:30:02 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:30
westerner (suspended)
It is very strange that not too long ago Liberals on this blog gave Harper no chance at all. The Liberals were going to trounce him. Those who gave Harper a chance were mocked.Now it seems we hear "Harper may indeed get into office". What happened folks?
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:10:11 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:10
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I still say he will lose if he has losers like you as supporters.Keep a dry diaper on election night..you'll need it for the diaherra you will get.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:31:15 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:31
Foxer
OH i'm sure dion has his own diapers and we won't need to lend him any :)
Unless you mean we'll be laughing so hard we might crap ourselves :)
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:24:32 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:24
westerner (suspended)
Another childish and silly response when you have nothing substantive to say. Time for you to leave for your winter vacation in Florida.
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:30:06 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:30
elf
well westerner, what happened was that all of you fell for the blue fuzzy sweater and the " you are going to sleep" line that Iggy used yesterday - you are not thinking and you have been duped by the bigged CON yet !! that's what has happened - one day soon you will all wake up and be very sorry for yourselves - but don't worry we Libs have big hearts and we will take care of you all and we will fix the deficit like before and everyone will be happy again -
[updated Tue Sep 30 11:58:56 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 11:58
westerner (suspended)
I am very relieved that you will "take care" of us. The "beer and popcorn" welfare of the Liberals is much appreciated by taxpayers!
[updated Tue Sep 30 12:15:55 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 12:15
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Without question !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:05:09 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:05
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Without question !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:08:08 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:08
westerner (suspended)
"I'll take the tried and true"? You must be eliminating Dion. Tried and true must be Harper. Good Choice.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:57:20 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:57
elf
oh let's be real here - Layton wants to tax the only people who employ the rest of us - give me a break !!
I am glad he has shown his policies - we have Harper way to far to the right - Jack way to far to the Left - what will we do ?
well, stay in the middle and vote Liberal - they really are the only party in the centre, they are not fanatical about anything and are generally fair to most of us - the Liberals offer the best all round government for this country -
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:56:02 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:56
Lex Llewdor
No, they offer what looks like the best all around governance when you don't examine it too closely.
What do you think increased energy costs will do to Ontario's manufacturing sector?
Even Jack Layton realises that manufacturing isn't salvageable in Canada - hence his big retraining promises. But manufacturing, which the Liberals promise to save, because even less tenable when the price of electricity goes up.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:29:22 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:29
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Not friggin' likely !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:03:48 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:03
Foxer
Well - taking off my CPC supporter hat and putting on my political junkie hat to answer that question...
ten points is pretty damn hard to beat. Anything is theoretically possible - but no party has ever come back from that far behind with 2 weeks left. Ever.
Dion isn't going to win. There's pretty much no real practical chance. Really we're now at the question of whether or not it will be a minority or majority. And that gets really hard to say, because it also depends on WHERE the vote is and how the ndp is doing.
At this point in time it looks like harper with about 148 - 150 seats. That is shy of a majority. The libs will lose some, the ndp will gain a very small number of seats, the bloc will lose a small number.
The fact is tho - for harper that's pretty much the same thing as a majority. The libs will be in no position to oppose him for at least about 2 years minimum. They'll have to do a leadership convention, they won't want to send us back to the polls for some time, and most seriously - they're going to be stoney broke with no ability to borrow significant amounts of money to fight a campaign.
Which means - chances are harper's going to 'play it safe'. He's not going to swing for the fences and do anything to get that majority because it might leave him making a mistake that he'll regret later.
So it becomes a question of who will the 'progressive' vote rally behind? Ndp? Libs? Green? Or will it split?
That will determine how the final standings play out more than anything.
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:17:42 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:17
HC in AB
I agree with your analysis Foxer, except that I think the Bloc will gain some of the Liberal seats in Montreal coming up the middle between the Libs and the Dippers. Any gain in support to the CPC in Quebec will be too wide and too thin to gain much of anything. I would give my right arm to see in internal targeted polls of the various parties. You can pretty much guess that their Qubec analysis is close to mine given that they are taking the campaign elsewhere.
[updated Mon Sep 29 15:49:20 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 15:49
Foxer
There is some reason to believe your thoughts on quebec could well be true. I think that the cpc is still competative in a few of the key ridings and that those ridings are still in play, but in montreal all kinds of interesting things are happening. It's conceivable the bloc may actually pick up seats there or in a few other liberal ridings.
Ontario is turning into a surprise. Considering the concentration of votes, Harper could pick up between 15 and 20 seats there and that'd be a shocker.
We'll see after the debates. Dion wants canadians to 'get to know him'. Frankly - i think he's in for a nasty shock :) And i think after the debates there will be a lot less support for the libs.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:15:49 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:15
HC in AB
I expect that the CPC will hang on to what they have in Quebec and maybe gain one or two. I agree that they could pick up about 20 outside of TO since they seem to be up about 5 points and the Libs down about 7. There are lots of places where they were within 10 points of the Libs last time out and every one of those outside of the 416 is a potential win.
I have no clue about Altlantic Canada. Williams has seems to have crawled into a hole someplace so I would guess that he is thinking that he has some information indicating that he better be quiet since he will be dealing with a majority CPC government two weeks from Wednesday.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:26:05 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:26
MichaelFox
I'm surprised that the Conservatives are doing as well as they are in Atlantic Canada, given Danny Williams' theatrics. I wonder if his stance has impacted his own popularity at all.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:45:37 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:45
HC in AB
I would expect that Danny's rantings have done him nothing but good with his electorate, he has taken a page from King Ralph's book... If you want to ensure your own popularity, pick a fight with Ottawa.. :-)
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:19:56 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:19
Lex Llewdor
What made that even more entertaining when Ralph did it was that he and Chrétien were (and are) good friends.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:30:01 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:30
I expect he's had a huge impact, for the better. An opinion leader..... out front with what counts. Good on him.
[updated Mon Sep 29 20:36:53 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 20:36
westerner (suspended)
They are doing well in Atlantic Canada BECAUSE of Daniels immature rants. Voters get sick of the little boy hissy fits.Daniel needs to grow up.
Harper will have a long memory when he is elected.
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:13:40 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:13
Peggy
I live in NB-he scored no points here!!! The local paper has 6/10 seats in NB either tied or leading for the Conservatives as of Monday. And this is RED country here!!!
[updated Tue Sep 30 12:57:59 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 12:57
The people of NFLD are very proud and a generous people they don't like bullies or strong arm politics so his ABC campaign has done the opposite.
NFLD and PEI want a seat in government they understand if you want something in your backyard you have to show up to the table.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:25:20 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:25
The people of NFLD are very proud and a generous people they don't like bullies or strong arm politics so his ABC campaign has done the opposite.
NFLD and PEI want a seat in government they understand if you want something in your backyard you have to show up to the table.
I put the comment under MF as well.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:26:30 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:26
Too funny. Too,too funny. Quit drinkin' the blue Kool-Aide . The Con-clones will be wiped out in Quebec .
Can you read a poll ?
[updated Tue Sep 30 00:42:21 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 00:42
Let me get this straight we are talking about the ABC Campaign in the east- Atlantic Canada NFLD and you say Quebec and blue kool-aid...interesting.
Too bad our comment was ignored like yours will be.
[updated Tue Sep 30 08:46:04 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 08:46
Agreed Ontario is the key for his majority as is Rural Quebec and the Bloc should finish off the Libs in the Urban Centre
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:03:42 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 21:03
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
You have it wrong again.....the libs just scored 23% in the very recent Leger poll up from around 19% last poll. I see the Libs knocking the dippers back as Quebeckers vote strategically once thye see the full picture. I also see the Libs picking up another 5 to 10 seats over last election at least as people there come to realize he is one of them.
Fortier is going to lose his election to the bloc and he is the one great hope the cons had around Montreal.
[updated Mon Sep 29 22:39:44 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 22:39
Foxer
Yeah - but the cpc was creaming them both in that poll.
[updated Mon Sep 29 23:27:31 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 23:27
So you will only use "polls" that advance your bias agreed?
You can't dismiss all the polls and single 1 poll out of the 500 snapshots than as the 1 correct poll, either you accept the trend and the validity of the majority of polls or you confirm your political bias. Your logic is deeply flawed.
I am watching the polls and look for trends and dont use 1 snapshot in time as the only indicator to make comments or form an opinion. It appears you are doing exactly that. Agreed?
[updated Tue Sep 30 08:51:16 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 08:51
I agree Quebec will be a wasteland for the Liberals for the most part. I believe that will give Ontario even more importance in determing whether CPC gains a majority.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:28:05 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:28
I agree with your assessment 9% is not insurmountable but again you lose objectivity by referring to our fellow citizens as dogs.
Do you favour your children calling other people animals? I hope not. Let's be respectful and keep this debate civil.
Thanks
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:39:36 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:39
westerner (suspended)
No one more scary than Dion!
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:55:41 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:55
elf
oh gosh westerner ha ha !! you are scared of mr Dion ? tee hee -
you really must be a wimp to be scared of Mr Dion after all you guys have done nothing but speak about him he is the wimpiest leader ever !!
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:19:50 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:19
Peggy
Give it a rest no one buys this anymore!
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:30:19 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:30
Lex Llewdor
Sure they do. Look at his platform. This will drive people to non-carbon forms of energy. But we don't have enough of that, so prices will skyrocket.
The Liberal platform is terrible economics.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:31:48 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:31
Peggy
I was commenting on Harper being scarie!! I don't know how this ended up after your comment! Sorry
[updated Tue Sep 30 13:00:35 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 13:00
elf
peggy - mine keepsliding around too I don't know how it happens - Foxer suggested i use a name when i respond and that seems to avoid confusion -
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:22:25 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:22
elf
Lex Llewdor - nonsense - the green shift is good economics - every country that has adopted it is doing wonderfully well - maybe you don't read or get out much do you ?
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:21:26 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:21
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Right on ALL counts !!
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:01:30 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:01
elf
rsharp - regarding gaffs and Harper - today we hear another one -the speech he copied on going into Iraq - now his back room boys say it is 5 years old and the party doesn't exist any more !! they say - what's the problem ???
I beg your pardon - ? What's the problem - hello - !!
It's the SAME MAN - and the party does still exist it's the - CONSERVATIVE REFORM ALLIANCE PARTY or C.R. A. P.
and while we are at it, if 5 years is history why do the CONs keep going on and on about the " 13 years and GHGs increased and the Libs failed" well, what is good for the goose is good for the gander and now we see the true Harper whther it is 5 years later or not - a high school student would fail an exam for this and a university student would be kicked out if they copied a speech - this is truly a glimpse into the man's character but the idiots who suppoert him will be ready with all kinds of excuses for this man's completely inexcusable behaviour - pity they don't have such loyalty to their fellow Canadians and that they don't think harder before supporting such a sleazy and dangerous politician
[updated Tue Sep 30 12:18:52 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 12:18
Are you kidding me rsharp??? Get over it Liberal lover!!! The stage is set with the debate starting Wednesday night in Francais and Thursday night in anglais!! Bein Oui!! Let the blood fly....... Dion will look like a deer in the headlights on a busy highway at night and Layton will be touting about how he is the best "Car Salesman" you can trust with his almost trillion dollar announcements, and Elizebeth May is a Liberal Puppet touting that Dion is the next best thing since sliced bread. Whatever!!!! October 14th is going to see the Big Red Machine be decimated into about 40 to 60 seats if their lucky. A majority for Harper is the best thing right now for Canada and his ideas about less government and more do for yourself and your own money is what Canada needs, not Liberal ideas that make us all dependant on the federal and provincial governments of this great country. Maybe you will one day wake up and realize that it isn't government only that makes Canada great, but both government and it's citizens and the economy we all create to make us the most sought after country to live in. Liberal idealizm is old and stale and it is a party way out of touch with the rest of the world. Liberals only think of themselves and power, corruption and greed and helping out their own friends at the expense of the rest of working stiffs here.
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:25:20 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:25
rsharp1
Oooh. I seem to be have been reinstated. So, robini, give your very thick head a shake. Denigrate Dion all you want. Who cares about the Liberals' policies or team. It's all about one man vs. another.
Not.
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:31:13 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:31
MichaelFox
Steady as she goes. I can't wait for the debate. I wonder if it will shake things up at all.
I still don't agree with all of the hype about the NDP. It seems like they do this every election and they come up empty handed every time. For all of the talk, they're barely polling higher than they were in the last election.
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:34:49 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:34
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
christine
Again, there will be no majority with these numbers. The problem for the Conservatives is that there aren't enough close ridings for them to win in order to gain a majority. Yes, there are close ridings--65 according to the electionprediction.com web site-- but in a lot of them Conservatives aren't even in the running; for example, in BC and in Ontario the contests are more between the Liberals and NDP. Take a look at the electionprediction.com web site and you'll see what I mean.
Here's the link: http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php
Incidently, the electionprediction.com site is nothing to be scoffed at. Milton Chan started it back in 2003 and, since then has had remarkable accuracy--more than 90 per cent for the last federal election. Not quite as good as Nanos, but far, far better than Ipsos-Reid, Decima and Ekos were in 2006.
Other riding projection sites come to similar conclusions to those of electionprediction.com. For example, look at the Trendlines Research web site. They are currently predicting the following outcome for the election:
Cons: 131
Libs: 110
Bloc: 40
NDP: 26
Ind: 1
Grn: 0
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of the liberal party in this election have been greatly exaggerated.
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:16:34 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:16
20 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
harper stays where he is at 36%(hopefully worse eventually) and he gets no more than the last time. No matter that the Libs are 3% below 2006 right now, and the 'dippers' are hanging in there, it STILL comes out that the Libs get fewer seats and the dippers get more- the oppostion breaks even and of course harper is 'stuck in the mud' of his OWN making !!
THAT means a LOT of soul-searching whilst the Libs, given the time, can have a new leader by Dion stepping down - 'passing the torch' to Ignatieff as interim leader - great and better opposition - 'coronate' Ignatieff as leader and they are ready and 'ship-shape' for battle in the next election, WHICH the Libs WILL win, due to harper's inept and 'western separatist' leanings showing like a giggling teenagers slip !! LOL
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:43:36 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:43
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MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Don't you just LOVE it !! Oil is down below 96 bucks USD and in Toronto gas is going downto $1.109 today and with all the speculators jumpin' out windows in the USA on Wall St., look for it to go even further 'south' to where it belongs at about 70-75 bucks at most.
THEN, the 'oil barons' in Alberta will get the 'shakes' as their profits will be hurt bad. Maybe we'll have to 'pull an NOP' eventually to save Alberta from itself, only this time they will have to pay for it themselves. NO MORE freebies from us in Ontario. We aren't greedy and paid the 'Ottawa Valley Borden Line' gas prices to help Alberta( no choice, but we DON'T hate Alberta for that, now do we ??!! Alberta hates us for something that happened over a quarter of a century ago and NO ONE out there knows or will admit to the fact that it wasn't Ontario's fault !! They just use us for a 'scapegoat'(their MLAs and harper, and in the past MLAs of the 'day' to cover up their OWN lies to Albertans).
[updated Tue Sep 30 01:28:27 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 01:28
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So with the rolling averages and the tv debate shortly we should see an increasing gap in the CPC numbers. I predict it will go back to 12-15 pts in National support putting them back in striking distance for a majority. Agreed?
The fight is for second place, not in seats but in the minds of Canadians who would best represent the official opposition. The public have put Layton (18pts) well ahead of Dion and that gap is only getting wider. The Liberals will be in great difficulty as they work to replace Dion after the election. Expect Harper to call another election in his third year or after the new liberal leader is in office for a few months. (Karma is replaying well in Canadian politics) Agreed?
Voters are very smart and going door to door this will play out very well for the CPC in the battleground ridings. Program spending is up. The CPC have spent more than the Liberals making fiscal conservatives unhappy with the growth above the Liberal 6.7% program spending. 905, 519 will go to Harper. Agreed?
The CPC continues to do surgical spending announcements: "families" with culture tax credits and bypassing the "Gatekeepers" of culture to their dismay. If the "Artists" come out and protest again, Harper support will shoot up more. The question at the door is do parents know best or a Arts Council staffer what is Canadian culture?
Divide and conquer politics.
Chretien, Harper, Bush, Clinton, are very smart when it comes to tapping into minds of voters. Their results are evident. Agreed?
[updated Tue Sep 30 07:48:25 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 07:48
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Harper plagerized a major speech on Iraq:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/508742
Bruce Campion-Smith
Ottawa Bureau Chief
OTTAWA–Stephen Harper's 2003 speech urging Canadian troops to be sent to Iraq copied almost word-for-word parts of a speech that Australian Prime Minister John Howard had delivered just days earlier, Liberals charged today.
Bob Rae, the party's foreign affairs critic, played tapes of the two speeches revealing that Harper parroted Howard's own arguments why Australian troops should be dispatched into the controversial conflict.
What a sleazeball and what a lovely present for his opponents going into the French debate where French Canadians are not only against the war but punish pols who lie and cheat. I hope Dion makes him wear that for the rest of the election and years to come.
[updated Tue Sep 30 11:10:43 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 11:10
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My comment is about the other day when the Aboriginal Leaders held a press confrence.
Again the governments are ignoring the plights of the First Nations and again another election will go by with no new news on what all governments will do to address the poverty and embarrassment that scars our country on the treatment of our Natives!!! I know and I'm sure that many Canadians want to know what actually happens to the 5 to 7 billion dollars we take out of the Canadian Taxpayer? Simple... lots and lots of Indian Beauracracy!!! By the time the money actually filters down to the reserves around Canada, the little that isn't eaten up by greed, corruption and who the Chief of the day is in some of these beuracracies, then the people looking for relief like fresh water, food, schooling and addictions help, don't get it. It has been this way since the Liberals in the Chreiten days made unrealistic promises to the First Nations, and since then it has been a clusterbomb of finger pointing in all levels of government!! Again the First Nations come on TV with cap in hand wanting more money!! Understandable, but it is hard to fix old land claims, revenue sharing and royalties in the mines around the Great North. The best way that any government can fix this problem is to number one stop the interior corruption in the First Nations!!Get rid of all the bloated beuracrats and fire them. Appoint only one government official to handle the funds and infrastructure in each province on a need to need basis. This will instantly have effects on the First Nations. It is fully understandable that the First Nations want to appoint leaders for each and every creed and race of Natives, but this eats up the money, and it basically screws all the Natives by paying off the Fat Cats first, and by letting them deal with the monies without oversight. With only one official per province with the funding money, this eliminates corruption and with the Chiefs of each Nation ready to build and fix the infrastructure in their own communities without the grandstanding of the bigwigs in the First Nations, the work will actually get done with government oversight on the purse strings. Sounds so simple, unfortunately greed and power come first in all races and creeds including First Nations. So here we go again in another election with no rules, oversight or even a mention of proper help for First Nations. Round and round we go. Rob
[updated Tue Sep 30 12:11:31 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 12:11
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ABC vs reality
The federal election campaign spilled on to the floor St. John's council chambers Monday evening, with the mayor attacking the Liberals' carbon tax plan.
Dennis O'Keefe said a review by city staff indicated that the Liberals' Green Shift would cost the city about $800,000 a year by 2012.
"[It's] kind of offensive to some degree, I suppose, when we as a municipality [are] trying to provide services to people who live here, and in the meantime we're taxed on our ability to do that," O'Keefe said.
Danny Williams is getting some ABC pushback.
Remember Green Shift promises to be neutral to the "government" not to the polluters.
Please raise your hand if your a polluter
Taxpayer
Farmer
Trucker
City
Province
Company
Hockey Mom with lipstick
and yes the cheque is in the mail!
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:06:52 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:06
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Interesting Survey from CBC website
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/votertoolkit/economy-poll-other-debate.html
X-Challenge: Economy
In what broad direction do you think the Canadian economy is going?
Have you personally been able to save money this year?
Where has your pocketbook been hit hardest recently?
How can the federal government most effectively improve Canada's economy?
What would most effectively improve Canadians' overall wealth?
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:24:48 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:24
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