CPAC-Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives still lead by 10 points. On the daily leadership index score, Stephen Harper has regained ground lost on Friday and Saturday as a result of the focus on Lee Richardson and his comment related to Dion wanting an economic downturn for political gain. Ontario is a tight race and the BQ are still doing well in Quebec, likely buoyed up by Harper’s culture and crime comments. Every election problem for Stephen Harper to date has been short term and his personal leadership numbers have recovered after a couple of days.
Of note, the beginning of the campaign has tended to focus on the floundering Dion Liberal campaign and the Liberal numbers have suffered. With Harper musing about a stronger mandate, expect a possible shift in focus to the Conservatives and a change in the shape of the campaign. Although Layton’s leadership numbers continue to do well compared to the past, CPAC-Nanos still has the NDP six points back of the Liberals.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 27, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1010, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 36 (NC)
- Liberal Party 26 (-1)
- NDP 20 (+1)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Undecided 16% (-2)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 35% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (+2)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 110 (+18)
- Jack Layton 54 (+4)
- Stephane Dion 35 (-18)
- Elizabeth May 17 (+6)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (-1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Ten points! That's insurmountable in just 2 weeks. Or is it? Trust that Mr. H... more
rsharp (Québec) 29 Sep 14:17
Again - not many surprises leading up to the debates. Ndp up one, libs down one.... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 29 Sep 14:07
Steady as she goes. I can't wait for the debate. I wonder if it will shake thi... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 29 Sep 14:34
What made that even more entertaining when Ralph did it was that he and Chrétien... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 29 Sep 18:30
Stephen Harper is simultaneously attacked by left wingers for being too right wi... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 29 Sep 18:36
"their" platform.... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 29 Sep 18:37
Comments
Foxer
Again - not many surprises leading up to the debates. Ndp up one, libs down one. That's not any real movement, tho it does suggest that the ndp and libs probably are fairly close (statistically tied technically, tho i'm confident the ndp is still trailing the libs somewhat).
The 'drop" we saw again over the weekend for the cpc will take another day or so to clear, and we'll see if it was a glitch or a trend.
These numbers would result in a much stronger minority for the cpc, with the libs reduced and ndp gaining slightly.
2 days to the debates :) exciting!
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:07:09 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:07
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Yep if the numbers work out to my earlier forecasts. I dropped 2 seats from greens.
09.18.08 10/18/08
CPC 127-> 142
Liberal 95-> 89
Bloc 48-> 45
NDP 30-> 32
Green 1-> 0
Ind. 3-> 0
Vac. 4-> 0
Total 308-> 308
Depends on turnout of voters drops CPC will benefit. Agreed?
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:16:56 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:16
Foxer
Probably not far off - based on the poll we just saw. But as i said before it seems awefully odd that two weekends in a row there'd be an unexplained drop and rise in the numbers for the cpc and libs - and if we see it fall off the books by wednesday and they 'suddenly' shoot up and down again.. we'll know something was wrong with nik's numbers.
So - right now your numbers are kind of looking like the 'worst case' scenario for the CPC.
I'd actually guess that the real results right this second would be higher for the cpc and ndp, lower for the libs. Not radically, but a little.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:21:42 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:21
Of the 45 battleground ridings the vote splitting and the rise of the CPC in the 905/ 519 may still give them a majority but I think alot of independent people are not watching the debate. What are the ratings? What is on the opposite channel. (American Idol gets more votes than their general election!) Same in Canada. Is their a hockey or sport event that night?
I know many people would rather have a root canal without any pain killers than listen to politicians speak. Don't you agree?
We get the government we vote for!
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:37:23 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:37
Foxer
While many do not watch the debates, most of those tend to read or watch the highlights the next day and look for who 'won' and 'lost' and what the key points are.
Even more will watch the polls for the next few days afterwards.
If there is a clear winner - it will influence things. If there are key moments they will be played and replayed on the air and that's what people will remember.
All it takes is one 'unfortunate' moment or comment or outburst, and it could change the course of the campaign. And dion's got a bad habit of doing exactly that.
Some have suggested that dion's actually 'better off' because people's expectation of him is so low that he only has to do mediocre to look 'better than expected', but the fact is that low expecation means that if he screws up at all it will 'confirm' what people 'already thought about him' and will drive support down.
Layton is probably the one with the most riding on this debate. If harper just looks decent he'll hold what he's got and if harper looks good it likely won't help much, his vote is pretty firm - but if layton looks good he stands to swing momentum in his favour.
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:49:14 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 16:49
Agreed each Biased Media station/newspaper will report their candidate "wins". lol
It is difficult to find media that reports facts without bias, I guess this has always been the case.
I agree some leaders have a very low expectation for the televised debate but that will make it difficult to spin their "win" without a good soundbite for their media clips.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:18:14 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:18
Foxer
It tends to have to be pretty clear for anyone to declare a 'win'. If it's close, it's a draw. So when there's a 'win' it's usually pretty obvious and they tend to report it as such - the losers media says 'a small win' and the winners say it was a 'landslide victory' :) heh
But the thing is dion needs a win - if he doesn't get it, especially now that he's mouthed off about how much people will love him, then it's as good as a loss. He needs the momentum and he just doesn't have any way to get it if this doesn't work.
[updated Mon Sep 29 17:31:42 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 17:31
So I guess Harper would have to come appear at the debate without his pants or have his head spin (Excorcist) to choke.
4 vs 1 should be fun!
He will be getting attacked by all of them and I think he will come off as very responsible if he ties economy reality to his fiscal restraints of his platform.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:42:12 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:42
Foxer
He will definitely be getting attacked but i don't think it'll all be about him. I think we'll see layton and dion bump heads and probably dion and duceppe and layton as well - duceppe i think smells the possibility of a few liberal seats in there.
[updated Mon Sep 29 18:55:34 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 18:55
elf
Harper is going to get it in the neck after the arts cuts - the Bloc will let him have it on that one you can be sure - also on the fact that he wants to jail 14 year olds - in Quebec they have very strong feelings about that - as do the LIberals and the Greens - personally I do not mind being aligned with the Bloc on those particular issues - in addition the election call itself is the subject of a court challenge and may actually be deemed illegal because since Harper made the four year law it now requires a non-confidence vote to quit parliament so you can't just quit and have an election - Chretien got away with it because there wasn't a law then - Harper may have sunk himself there too !! Too clever for his own good if you ask me - I am really looking forward to seeing Elizabeth get right up Harper's nose !! She is a very articulate speaker - they say her French is not so good but in the English debate she will give him a really hard time - now that will be fun !!
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:02:53 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:02
rsharp1
Right up Harper's nose. Careful, Nik might find that obscene.
I so hope the ABH crowd acquit themselves well tonite. Including Duceppe. I like the man. I have an extreme dislike for Harper. Nik might not like my descriptors of the man, but he is a monster that has to be stopped.
Let me repeat that for Nik's censorship crew. Harper is a monster!
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:10:30 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:10
Please read the bills as you are ignoring actual details and just spinning. Did you read the bill on Fixed Date elections?
So apparently you don't understand a single issue you raised, but you can repeat what the other parties have said. Read the bills for yourself get informed I can't help you unless you are willing to read for yourself.
Sorry im not interested in typing when you can go to the gov't website and read the bills for yourself.
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:15:21 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:15
elf
Informed1 - I was actually watching this on CBC earlier today, on the news, a statement being read at the time by a lawyer who was in the process of presenting this - if i recall it is the Co-alition for Canadian Democracy or some such group - I can't remember the actual name there are so many similar organizations - anyway I thought it was interesting - I find that sometimes you are quite interesting too and your comments are well thought out but I have also noticed that sometimes you are just plain rude !! Why is that - are your shorts too tight ?
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:33:29 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:33
must be too much starch!
[updated Wed Oct 01 19:38:01 EDT 2008]
01 Oct 19:38
elf
Informed1 - funny you'd think that would make them itchy and tickle you and then you'd laugh more - sorry - back on topic -
POLLS SHOW DION WON THE FRENCH DEBATE - Harper had a little smirk on his face the entire time and he used his fuzzy sweater voice - not a good strategy - Layton was awful as usual and I thought Elizabeth did very well even though her French isn't great - she did get up Harper's nose and it was funny to see him trying to control himself - I bet he was just dying to let loose on her !! it was lots of fun !!
[updated Thu Oct 02 16:28:27 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 16:28
Okay I agree the Liberal Media declared Dion.
For instance the Right Wing Media National Post declared Harper a winner.
But I am glad Dion had a good nite. I hope it can do as well in English.
[updated Thu Oct 02 17:04:52 EDT 2008]
02 Oct 17:04
Ten points! That's insurmountable in just 2 weeks. Or is it?
Trust that Mr. Harper will continue his gaffes (including his "team" of poodles). Trust Mr. Harper to say as little as posible about the way he would wreck our great country, should he ever get a majority.
This man is very, very scary.
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:17:42 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:17
148 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
Steady as she goes. I can't wait for the debate. I wonder if it will shake things up at all.
I still don't agree with all of the hype about the NDP. It seems like they do this every election and they come up empty handed every time. For all of the talk, they're barely polling higher than they were in the last election.
[updated Mon Sep 29 14:34:49 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 14:34
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
christine
Again, there will be no majority with these numbers. The problem for the Conservatives is that there aren't enough close ridings for them to win in order to gain a majority. Yes, there are close ridings--65 according to the electionprediction.com web site-- but in a lot of them Conservatives aren't even in the running; for example, in BC and in Ontario the contests are more between the Liberals and NDP. Take a look at the electionprediction.com web site and you'll see what I mean.
Here's the link: http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php
Incidently, the electionprediction.com site is nothing to be scoffed at. Milton Chan started it back in 2003 and, since then has had remarkable accuracy--more than 90 per cent for the last federal election. Not quite as good as Nanos, but far, far better than Ipsos-Reid, Decima and Ekos were in 2006.
Other riding projection sites come to similar conclusions to those of electionprediction.com. For example, look at the Trendlines Research web site. They are currently predicting the following outcome for the election:
Cons: 131
Libs: 110
Bloc: 40
NDP: 26
Ind: 1
Grn: 0
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of the liberal party in this election have been greatly exaggerated.
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:16:34 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:16
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MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
harper stays where he is at 36%(hopefully worse eventually) and he gets no more than the last time. No matter that the Libs are 3% below 2006 right now, and the 'dippers' are hanging in there, it STILL comes out that the Libs get fewer seats and the dippers get more- the oppostion breaks even and of course harper is 'stuck in the mud' of his OWN making !!
THAT means a LOT of soul-searching whilst the Libs, given the time, can have a new leader by Dion stepping down - 'passing the torch' to Ignatieff as interim leader - great and better opposition - 'coronate' Ignatieff as leader and they are ready and 'ship-shape' for battle in the next election, WHICH the Libs WILL win, due to harper's inept and 'western separatist' leanings showing like a giggling teenagers slip !! LOL
[updated Mon Sep 29 19:43:36 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 19:43
87 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Don't you just LOVE it !! Oil is down below 96 bucks USD and in Toronto gas is going downto $1.109 today and with all the speculators jumpin' out windows in the USA on Wall St., look for it to go even further 'south' to where it belongs at about 70-75 bucks at most.
THEN, the 'oil barons' in Alberta will get the 'shakes' as their profits will be hurt bad. Maybe we'll have to 'pull an NOP' eventually to save Alberta from itself, only this time they will have to pay for it themselves. NO MORE freebies from us in Ontario. We aren't greedy and paid the 'Ottawa Valley Borden Line' gas prices to help Alberta( no choice, but we DON'T hate Alberta for that, now do we ??!! Alberta hates us for something that happened over a quarter of a century ago and NO ONE out there knows or will admit to the fact that it wasn't Ontario's fault !! They just use us for a 'scapegoat'(their MLAs and harper, and in the past MLAs of the 'day' to cover up their OWN lies to Albertans).
[updated Tue Sep 30 01:28:27 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 01:28
70 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
So with the rolling averages and the tv debate shortly we should see an increasing gap in the CPC numbers. I predict it will go back to 12-15 pts in National support putting them back in striking distance for a majority. Agreed?
The fight is for second place, not in seats but in the minds of Canadians who would best represent the official opposition. The public have put Layton (18pts) well ahead of Dion and that gap is only getting wider. The Liberals will be in great difficulty as they work to replace Dion after the election. Expect Harper to call another election in his third year or after the new liberal leader is in office for a few months. (Karma is replaying well in Canadian politics) Agreed?
Voters are very smart and going door to door this will play out very well for the CPC in the battleground ridings. Program spending is up. The CPC have spent more than the Liberals making fiscal conservatives unhappy with the growth above the Liberal 6.7% program spending. 905, 519 will go to Harper. Agreed?
The CPC continues to do surgical spending announcements: "families" with culture tax credits and bypassing the "Gatekeepers" of culture to their dismay. If the "Artists" come out and protest again, Harper support will shoot up more. The question at the door is do parents know best or a Arts Council staffer what is Canadian culture?
Divide and conquer politics.
Chretien, Harper, Bush, Clinton, are very smart when it comes to tapping into minds of voters. Their results are evident. Agreed?
[updated Tue Sep 30 07:48:25 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 07:48
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Harper plagerized a major speech on Iraq:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/508742
Bruce Campion-Smith
Ottawa Bureau Chief
OTTAWA–Stephen Harper's 2003 speech urging Canadian troops to be sent to Iraq copied almost word-for-word parts of a speech that Australian Prime Minister John Howard had delivered just days earlier, Liberals charged today.
Bob Rae, the party's foreign affairs critic, played tapes of the two speeches revealing that Harper parroted Howard's own arguments why Australian troops should be dispatched into the controversial conflict.
What a sleazeball and what a lovely present for his opponents going into the French debate where French Canadians are not only against the war but punish pols who lie and cheat. I hope Dion makes him wear that for the rest of the election and years to come.
[updated Tue Sep 30 11:10:43 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 11:10
73 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
My comment is about the other day when the Aboriginal Leaders held a press confrence.
Again the governments are ignoring the plights of the First Nations and again another election will go by with no new news on what all governments will do to address the poverty and embarrassment that scars our country on the treatment of our Natives!!! I know and I'm sure that many Canadians want to know what actually happens to the 5 to 7 billion dollars we take out of the Canadian Taxpayer? Simple... lots and lots of Indian Beauracracy!!! By the time the money actually filters down to the reserves around Canada, the little that isn't eaten up by greed, corruption and who the Chief of the day is in some of these beuracracies, then the people looking for relief like fresh water, food, schooling and addictions help, don't get it. It has been this way since the Liberals in the Chreiten days made unrealistic promises to the First Nations, and since then it has been a clusterbomb of finger pointing in all levels of government!! Again the First Nations come on TV with cap in hand wanting more money!! Understandable, but it is hard to fix old land claims, revenue sharing and royalties in the mines around the Great North. The best way that any government can fix this problem is to number one stop the interior corruption in the First Nations!!Get rid of all the bloated beuracrats and fire them. Appoint only one government official to handle the funds and infrastructure in each province on a need to need basis. This will instantly have effects on the First Nations. It is fully understandable that the First Nations want to appoint leaders for each and every creed and race of Natives, but this eats up the money, and it basically screws all the Natives by paying off the Fat Cats first, and by letting them deal with the monies without oversight. With only one official per province with the funding money, this eliminates corruption and with the Chiefs of each Nation ready to build and fix the infrastructure in their own communities without the grandstanding of the bigwigs in the First Nations, the work will actually get done with government oversight on the purse strings. Sounds so simple, unfortunately greed and power come first in all races and creeds including First Nations. So here we go again in another election with no rules, oversight or even a mention of proper help for First Nations. Round and round we go. Rob
[updated Tue Sep 30 12:11:31 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 12:11
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
ABC vs reality
The federal election campaign spilled on to the floor St. John's council chambers Monday evening, with the mayor attacking the Liberals' carbon tax plan.
Dennis O'Keefe said a review by city staff indicated that the Liberals' Green Shift would cost the city about $800,000 a year by 2012.
"[It's] kind of offensive to some degree, I suppose, when we as a municipality [are] trying to provide services to people who live here, and in the meantime we're taxed on our ability to do that," O'Keefe said.
Danny Williams is getting some ABC pushback.
Remember Green Shift promises to be neutral to the "government" not to the polluters.
Please raise your hand if your a polluter
Taxpayer
Farmer
Trucker
City
Province
Company
Hockey Mom with lipstick
and yes the cheque is in the mail!
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:06:52 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:06
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Interesting Survey from CBC website
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/votertoolkit/economy-poll-other-debate.html
X-Challenge: Economy
In what broad direction do you think the Canadian economy is going?
Have you personally been able to save money this year?
Where has your pocketbook been hit hardest recently?
How can the federal government most effectively improve Canada's economy?
What would most effectively improve Canadians' overall wealth?
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:24:48 EDT 2008]
30 Sep 14:24
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