CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 26, NDP 20, GP 9, BQ 9 (ending September 28)

Again - not many surprises leading up to the debates. Ndp up one, libs down one. That's not any real movement, tho it does suggest that the ndp and libs probably are fairly close (statistically tied technically, tho i'm confident the ndp is still trailing the libs somewhat).

The 'drop" we saw again over the weekend for the cpc will take another day or so to clear, and we'll see if it was a glitch or a trend.

These numbers would result in a much stronger minority for the cpc, with the libs reduced and ndp gaining slightly.

2 days to the debates :) exciting!

[updated Mon Sep 29 14:07:09 EDT 2008]

Ten points! That's insurmountable in just 2 weeks. Or is it?

Trust that Mr. Harper will continue his gaffes (including his "team" of poodles). Trust Mr. Harper to say as little as posible about the way he would wreck our great country, should he ever get a majority.

This man is very, very scary.

[updated Mon Sep 29 14:17:42 EDT 2008]

Steady as she goes. I can't wait for the debate. I wonder if it will shake things up at all.

I still don't agree with all of the hype about the NDP. It seems like they do this every election and they come up empty handed every time. For all of the talk, they're barely polling higher than they were in the last election.

[updated Mon Sep 29 14:34:49 EDT 2008]

Again, there will be no majority with these numbers. The problem for the Conservatives is that there aren't enough close ridings for them to win in order to gain a majority. Yes, there are close ridings--65 according to the electionprediction.com web site-- but in a lot of them Conservatives aren't even in the running; for example, in BC and in Ontario the contests are more between the Liberals and NDP. Take a look at the electionprediction.com web site and you'll see what I mean.

Here's the link: http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php

Incidently, the electionprediction.com site is nothing to be scoffed at. Milton Chan started it back in 2003 and, since then has had remarkable accuracy--more than 90 per cent for the last federal election. Not quite as good as Nanos, but far, far better than Ipsos-Reid, Decima and Ekos were in 2006.

Other riding projection sites come to similar conclusions to those of electionprediction.com. For example, look at the Trendlines Research web site. They are currently predicting the following outcome for the election:

Cons: 131
Libs: 110
Bloc: 40
NDP: 26
Ind: 1
Grn: 0

To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of the liberal party in this election have been greatly exaggerated.

[updated Mon Sep 29 19:16:34 EDT 2008]

harper stays where he is at 36%(hopefully worse eventually) and he gets no more than the last time. No matter that the Libs are 3% below 2006 right now, and the 'dippers' are hanging in there, it STILL comes out that the Libs get fewer seats and the dippers get more- the oppostion breaks even and of course harper is 'stuck in the mud' of his OWN making !!
THAT means a LOT of soul-searching whilst the Libs, given the time, can have a new leader by Dion stepping down - 'passing the torch' to Ignatieff as interim leader - great and better opposition - 'coronate' Ignatieff as leader and they are ready and 'ship-shape' for battle in the next election, WHICH the Libs WILL win, due to harper's inept and 'western separatist' leanings showing like a giggling teenagers slip !! LOL

[updated Mon Sep 29 19:43:36 EDT 2008]

Don't you just LOVE it !! Oil is down below 96 bucks USD and in Toronto gas is going downto $1.109 today and with all the speculators jumpin' out windows in the USA on Wall St., look for it to go even further 'south' to where it belongs at about 70-75 bucks at most.
THEN, the 'oil barons' in Alberta will get the 'shakes' as their profits will be hurt bad. Maybe we'll have to 'pull an NOP' eventually to save Alberta from itself, only this time they will have to pay for it themselves. NO MORE freebies from us in Ontario. We aren't greedy and paid the 'Ottawa Valley Borden Line' gas prices to help Alberta( no choice, but we DON'T hate Alberta for that, now do we ??!! Alberta hates us for something that happened over a quarter of a century ago and NO ONE out there knows or will admit to the fact that it wasn't Ontario's fault !! They just use us for a 'scapegoat'(their MLAs and harper, and in the past MLAs of the 'day' to cover up their OWN lies to Albertans).

[updated Tue Sep 30 01:28:27 EDT 2008]

So with the rolling averages and the tv debate shortly we should see an increasing gap in the CPC numbers. I predict it will go back to 12-15 pts in National support putting them back in striking distance for a majority. Agreed?

The fight is for second place, not in seats but in the minds of Canadians who would best represent the official opposition. The public have put Layton (18pts) well ahead of Dion and that gap is only getting wider. The Liberals will be in great difficulty as they work to replace Dion after the election. Expect Harper to call another election in his third year or after the new liberal leader is in office for a few months. (Karma is replaying well in Canadian politics) Agreed?

Voters are very smart and going door to door this will play out very well for the CPC in the battleground ridings. Program spending is up. The CPC have spent more than the Liberals making fiscal conservatives unhappy with the growth above the Liberal 6.7% program spending. 905, 519 will go to Harper. Agreed?
The CPC continues to do surgical spending announcements: "families" with culture tax credits and bypassing the "Gatekeepers" of culture to their dismay. If the "Artists" come out and protest again, Harper support will shoot up more. The question at the door is do parents know best or a Arts Council staffer what is Canadian culture?

Divide and conquer politics.

Chretien, Harper, Bush, Clinton, are very smart when it comes to tapping into minds of voters. Their results are evident. Agreed?

[updated Tue Sep 30 07:48:25 EDT 2008]

Harper plagerized a major speech on Iraq:

http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/508742

Bruce Campion-Smith
Ottawa Bureau Chief

OTTAWA–Stephen Harper's 2003 speech urging Canadian troops to be sent to Iraq copied almost word-for-word parts of a speech that Australian Prime Minister John Howard had delivered just days earlier, Liberals charged today.

Bob Rae, the party's foreign affairs critic, played tapes of the two speeches revealing that Harper parroted Howard's own arguments why Australian troops should be dispatched into the controversial conflict.

What a sleazeball and what a lovely present for his opponents going into the French debate where French Canadians are not only against the war but punish pols who lie and cheat. I hope Dion makes him wear that for the rest of the election and years to come.

[updated Tue Sep 30 11:10:43 EDT 2008]

My comment is about the other day when the Aboriginal Leaders held a press confrence.
Again the governments are ignoring the plights of the First Nations and again another election will go by with no new news on what all governments will do to address the poverty and embarrassment that scars our country on the treatment of our Natives!!! I know and I'm sure that many Canadians want to know what actually happens to the 5 to 7 billion dollars we take out of the Canadian Taxpayer? Simple... lots and lots of Indian Beauracracy!!! By the time the money actually filters down to the reserves around Canada, the little that isn't eaten up by greed, corruption and who the Chief of the day is in some of these beuracracies, then the people looking for relief like fresh water, food, schooling and addictions help, don't get it. It has been this way since the Liberals in the Chreiten days made unrealistic promises to the First Nations, and since then it has been a clusterbomb of finger pointing in all levels of government!! Again the First Nations come on TV with cap in hand wanting more money!! Understandable, but it is hard to fix old land claims, revenue sharing and royalties in the mines around the Great North. The best way that any government can fix this problem is to number one stop the interior corruption in the First Nations!!Get rid of all the bloated beuracrats and fire them. Appoint only one government official to handle the funds and infrastructure in each province on a need to need basis. This will instantly have effects on the First Nations. It is fully understandable that the First Nations want to appoint leaders for each and every creed and race of Natives, but this eats up the money, and it basically screws all the Natives by paying off the Fat Cats first, and by letting them deal with the monies without oversight. With only one official per province with the funding money, this eliminates corruption and with the Chiefs of each Nation ready to build and fix the infrastructure in their own communities without the grandstanding of the bigwigs in the First Nations, the work will actually get done with government oversight on the purse strings. Sounds so simple, unfortunately greed and power come first in all races and creeds including First Nations. So here we go again in another election with no rules, oversight or even a mention of proper help for First Nations. Round and round we go. Rob

[updated Tue Sep 30 12:11:31 EDT 2008]

ABC vs reality

The federal election campaign spilled on to the floor St. John's council chambers Monday evening, with the mayor attacking the Liberals' carbon tax plan.

Dennis O'Keefe said a review by city staff indicated that the Liberals' Green Shift would cost the city about $800,000 a year by 2012.

"[It's] kind of offensive to some degree, I suppose, when we as a municipality [are] trying to provide services to people who live here, and in the meantime we're taxed on our ability to do that," O'Keefe said.

Danny Williams is getting some ABC pushback.

Remember Green Shift promises to be neutral to the "government" not to the polluters.

Please raise your hand if your a polluter

Taxpayer
Farmer
Trucker
City
Province
Company
Hockey Mom with lipstick

and yes the cheque is in the mail!

[updated Tue Sep 30 14:06:52 EDT 2008]

Interesting Survey from CBC website
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/votertoolkit/economy-poll-other-debate.html

X-Challenge: Economy

In what broad direction do you think the Canadian economy is going?

Have you personally been able to save money this year?

Where has your pocketbook been hit hardest recently?

How can the federal government most effectively improve Canada's economy?

What would most effectively improve Canadians' overall wealth?

[updated Tue Sep 30 14:24:48 EDT 2008]