With their 15 point margin last week, the campaign was looking like a runaway freight train for the Harper Conservatives. However, a number of new factors have diminished the Conservative lead, which is still comfortable, to 9 points.
First, Harper’s culture comments renewed BQ support in Quebec. Combine the Richardson comments related to immigrants causing crime and Harper’s comments asserting Dion wanted the economy to perform poorly and the gap narrowed from 15 to 9 points. These two comments represent a tenuous lifeline to the Liberal campaign.
Tonight, Nik Nanos, President of Nanos Research and Official CPAC Pollster, joins Goldhawk Live host Dale Goldhawk at 7 pm ET / 4 pm PT to discuss the latest results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 26, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=990, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 36 (-3)
- Liberal Party 27 (+2)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- BQ 9% (+1)
- Undecided 18% (+2)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 36% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (-1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 12% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 92 (+7)
- Stephane Dion 53 (+11)
- Jack Layton 50 (-6)
- Gilles Duceppe 17 (+6)
- Elizabeth May 11 (-9)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
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Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Phew! But Harper still has a 9 point lead. Methinks he or his party would have... more
rsharp (Québec) 28 Sep 14:28
Does Canadian constitution allow formation of Green and Lib coalition government... more
shk (Ontario) 28 Sep 14:46
Things are tightening up again. Polls are like rollercoasters. Hold on and enj... more
fortescue (Ontario) 28 Sep 14:02
Wow. You're not the brightest bulb in the drawer, are you :) Nik's talented, ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 28 Sep 21:09
I would have slept just fine with a nine point lead, much better than Stephane I... more
MRM (Manitoba) 28 Sep 21:22
rsharp 1. As a member nation we have obligations under both NATO and the UN.... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 28 Sep 21:28
Comments
fortescue
Things are tightening up again. Polls are like rollercoasters. Hold on and enjoy the ride. Quebec looks like they will determine whether its a majority or not?
[updated Sun Sep 28 14:02:03 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 14:02
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Phew! But Harper still has a 9 point lead. Methinks he or his party would have to do something monumentally stupid to blow it now. Or Bushco does, which spills across our once unguarded border.
The Liberals are going to be the official opposition. The only real question is whether or not we get a Tory majority. And what then?
Maybe we should draw up a "behavioural contract" for Harper. I'll do the first draft:
1. I promise not to get Canada into any more wars unless in self-defence, defence of an ally or as requested by the United Nations' Security Council to prevent genocide.
2. I promise to stop my rush to deregulate the private sector, whether competiton law, financial markets, environmental protection, labour standards or consumer protection.
3. I promise not to drag up resolved social issues, unless a specific campaign platform. These would include: a woman's right to choose, the death penalty, soft drugs, young offenders, the separation of church and state...
4. I promise to leave the wheat board, CBC, Canada Post and other Crown corporations alone.
5. I promise not to interfere with the legitimate duties of the the human rights, privacy access to information and official languages commissions.
6. I promise to stop muzzling government departments, so that they too can do their jobs.
You get my drift. Please feel free to add to the list.
[updated Sun Sep 28 14:28:12 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 14:28
116 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
shk
Does Canadian constitution allow formation of Green and Lib coalition government ?
[updated Sun Sep 28 14:46:52 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 14:46
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Kelvin
Not surprising result: three-point Tory jump on Sept. 24 was clearly an outlier and has passed through the sample. NDP's stalled at 19% though.
[updated Sun Sep 28 15:02:28 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 15:02
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Foxer
Looks more like there was a sudden jump in the undecided - possibly people saying undecided instead of cpc - but it's very very odd that this is the second weekend in a row where there's a 'sudden and improbable' reversal.
The cpc dropping 2 points would be a little unusual - there's no indication of a sudden drop last night anywhere else. But more importantly, there's no reason for the libs to go way up while the ndp doesn't.
And that's the second weekend in a row that kind of thing has happened - sudden overnight drop for the cpc, sudden unexpected rise for the libs. And there's just no indication in any other poll that there was a reversal of that nature - in fact most would say the ndp has been gaining strength not the libs.
I dunno - we'll have to wait and see if it holds for a few days, if it 'suddenly' goes back up like we saw last week then i'm afraid we'll have to conclude there's a problem with nicks methods.
[updated Sun Sep 28 19:07:23 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 19:07
12 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
'foxer - MORE bs !! Get with the program. Nick's methods are the best in the country. I've bet on him since '06 when he called it bang on. Forget about your excuses. The poll is right !! People are starting to learn ALL the things I've been telling you for a day and an half now and maybe, just maybe, I've helped a little. LOL BYE for Now !!
[updated Sun Sep 28 20:50:58 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 20:50
Foxer
Wow. You're not the brightest bulb in the drawer, are you :)
Nik's talented, but hardly perfect. Why do you think his polls are plus or minus 3 percent? That's a 6 percent margin of error. And frankly getting it right ONE election doesn't make someone perfect :) I'm sure nik would be the first to tell you there's a hint of luck in that :) Many pollsters were within their margins of error. Nik is great - very good - possibly the very best. But not perfect. Polling never is.
However - if you get patterns that dont' make sense - there's something wrong with your methodology. Last week there was a bounce day on the weekend that didn't show up in any other polling done, and was only for one day. You can get 'rogue' polls no matter what, so it was dismissed as that.
But here again - a result that simply makes no sense and occurs in one day. Polls don't just jump THAT much without some huge precipitating event - they just dont. Now - it's POSSIBLE. So if the trend continues for the week then it's not a glitch. If it vanishes within 3 days of now, it was a glitch.
One glitch could easily just be a rogue. TWO .. in such a short space - that suggests a problem with something in the methodology. Perhaps something in how his numbers are called or something is getting strange samples or bad sample areas or who knows what.
[updated Sun Sep 28 21:09:57 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 21:09
Foxer, you seem to insult anyone who disagrees with you. Or is this a chance encounter?
[updated Sun Sep 28 21:15:01 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 21:15
Foxer
No - just those who insult me :) And we've bumped into each other before :)
[updated Sun Sep 28 21:58:19 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 21:58
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Check out sept 20th and 21st.
[updated Sun Sep 28 21:17:46 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 21:17
Foxer
20th and 21st what? What are you talking about?
[updated Sun Sep 28 22:02:10 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 22:02
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Of September on Nanos-do you get nikonthenumbers.com ?? Go there, you will see that on those dates the difference was only 5 points.
BTW - The 27th(last night - published today) cpc-36% Lib -27% Ndp -19% 9 & 9 for the other 2.
MBAGS
[updated Sun Sep 28 22:35:58 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 22:35
Foxer
Ok - i wasn't sure what you were talking about.
That's rather the point i was making tho - last week (20th) the poll took a very sudden and unexplained major dip overnight. Because that's a rolling poll, it showed for a few days, but then 'suddenly' that day seemed to fall off the books and the numbers snapped back to where they were.
There was no corrosponding dip in any of the other pollsters - and really there should have been if there was THAT sudden a drop or rise in public opinion.
Now a week later pretty much to the day another change that just doesn't make much sense. We'll see if it 'falls off' like it did last time. IF it does, it kind of suggests nik's numbers are having SOME sort of problem on the weekends.
[updated Mon Sep 29 01:17:55 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 01:17
Now I buy tha! Darned if my paper isn't screwed up on Sat. and Sun. I guess I could chase it down but it's another level because, of course, it's been out-sourced,
[updated Mon Sep 29 01:26:59 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 01:26
Foxer
All kinds of weird things can happen on weekends, that's for sure. :)
Might just be that more liberals are home, or fewer cpc are or god knows what.
[updated Mon Sep 29 02:19:39 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 02:19
Agreed polls can become invalid if the methodoly and gathering of data or calculating become compromised.
It would be strange if Nanos Poll change is not reflected in the other polls to a lesser extent.
[updated Mon Sep 29 09:56:43 EDT 2008]
29 Sep 09:56
westerner (suspended)
Hi Parnel.
[updated Sun Sep 28 22:31:19 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 22:31
MBAGS (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Hello boys and girls - MBAGS here !! Oh the shame of my posters to the 'Ottawa Valley Borden Line' blog that got over 200 'hits' so far. They are cryin' in their beer about now !! Geez, ONLY 9 points instead of 15 - OY VAY, what will they do !! No sleep tonight - late for work tomorrow !! LOL - NO majority !! Maybe worse !! One would hope this side of the 'Mason-Dixon' errr... Manitoba border !!
36% A SOLID weak minority and if it holds or gets worse, harper is D-E-D, dead !! LOL.
I CAN dream, but with the numbers taking a 'dive' I can't help but taking my turn to 'gloat' a little.
ALL the 'write-offs' and BANG, a 'Liberal surge'(I invented that one). It's a small one, but obviously at the cost to the cpc and harper's goonies. If we get another one like in '06 for the Libs, wow, we got a 'horse race'. Sorry to those whom I offend, but I've gotten my brains beat out about the 'Ottawa Valley Borden Line' from 1961-1973 and they're scattering for the hills out west after just long enough to take a 'poke' at me for daring to bring up the fact that Ontario saved their butts for 12 years !! LOL Cheers - MBAGS !!
BTW - If you want to 'Google' 'Ottawa valley Borden Line' (fourth one down), you Can read the truth about how many years Ontario supported Alberta's oil production at a huge cost - GRATIS !! Diefenbaker legislated it !! (PM for PCs - majority 1958-1963). I was almost 18 when the NOP took hold. I remember !! The Libs under Pearson and Trudeau let it go for Alberta until 1973 and it was cancelled, but Ontario payed, oh did we pay !!
[updated Sun Sep 28 20:30:44 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 20:30
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