Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives leading by 14 points at 39% nationally. The Liberals follow with 25%, the NDP with 19%, the Green Party at 9% and the Bloc Québécois at 8%. In Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, the gap narrows with statistical ties between the Conservatives and the Liberals. In Quebec, the Bloc now leads with 37% support. Meanwhile the leadership index sees Stephen Harper’s number dip to 85 while the numbers for Jack Layton and Stephane Dion rise to 56 and 42 respectively. On the question of who would make the country’s best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper continues to lead with 37%, followed by Jack Layton at 19%. Stéphane Dion trails with 11% support, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe at 4% each.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live Sunday night at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 25, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1007, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 39 (NC)
- Liberal Party 25 (+1)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- Green Party 9% (+1)
- BQ 8% (-1)
- Undecided 16% (+1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 37% (-3)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 11% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 85 (-24)
- Jack Layton 56 (+2)
- Stephane Dion 42 (+12)
- Elizabeth May 20 (+7)
- Gilles Duceppe 11 (-3)
What do you think?
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard