Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives leading by 14 points at 39% nationally. The Liberals follow with 25%, the NDP with 19%, the Green Party at 9% and the Bloc Québécois at 8%. In Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, the gap narrows with statistical ties between the Conservatives and the Liberals. In Quebec, the Bloc now leads with 37% support. Meanwhile the leadership index sees Stephen Harper’s number dip to 85 while the numbers for Jack Layton and Stephane Dion rise to 56 and 42 respectively. On the question of who would make the country’s best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper continues to lead with 37%, followed by Jack Layton at 19%. Stéphane Dion trails with 11% support, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe at 4% each.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live Sunday night at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 25, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1007, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 39 (NC)
- Liberal Party 25 (+1)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- Green Party 9% (+1)
- BQ 8% (-1)
- Undecided 16% (+1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 37% (-3)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 11% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 85 (-24)
- Jack Layton 56 (+2)
- Stephane Dion 42 (+12)
- Elizabeth May 20 (+7)
- Gilles Duceppe 11 (-3)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Volatility lessens for run up to debate or are we just waiting for the shoe to d... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 27 Sep 14:44
I HAVE to bring this 'gem' to the pages of Nanos. Please 'Google' : ('Ottawa ... more
LIBERALMAN (Ontario) 27 Sep 19:57
Well - a little boring of course, but it was to be expected :) There's not going... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 27 Sep 14:44
Yes your right perhaps the HRDC could run it. Or perhaps the department of indi... more
fortescue (Ontario) 27 Sep 22:36
Lots of good questions. 1 - this is a subject of much debate - usually because... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 28 Sep 00:28
Well i'm in bc - different story - but i don't think it's fair to say alberta ha... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 28 Sep 00:42
Comments
Foxer
Well - a little boring of course, but it was to be expected :) There's not going to be much more movement till closer to the debates unless something big happens.
Harris had the ndp up, but i really don't trust harris decima. I'd guess that aside from going up a point or down a point or two there won't be much change for a few days.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:44:22 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 14:44
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Regina Beach Boy
Volatility lessens for run up to debate or are we just waiting for the shoe to drop, listened to Dion speaking today and I'm sorry, but I just cannot understand what he's saying all too often.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:44:27 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 14:44
14 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
I tend to agree with the difficulty in understanding Dion in english. I do try and listen but find the delivery akward and usually read the press releases to get the information.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:54:16 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 14:54
Regina Beach Boy
He came up with a new word for the english language today, when he said it I had to double take a look at the tv, it sounded exactly like "Fuckanadians" he said it like one word, of course it was "for canadians", but that was not what I heard at first. lol
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:00:47 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 15:00
I wish I could understand him, and Canadians could so we could have a better debate of ideas.
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:21:24 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 15:21
Foxer
watch the french debate - there'll be an interpreter to convert his french to english, which may help a little. There's unfortunately no one to translate his english into english :)
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:23:25 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 16:23
Thats just mean! lol
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:29:42 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 16:29
It is mean. As if Dion's party platform isn't there for all to see, better for the 95% of us who aren't rich buggers. And for our children.
I understand him perfectly well. But you guys ferment this false phobia about his language skills.
News Flash: This is Canada. A bilingual country. If Mr. Dion is elected PM, he gets to work in either language!
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:49:16 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 16:49
fortescue
Its not just his english. Its what he says. Its like he lecturing. The all knowing one. Its as if if we disagree with his carbon tax we must be capilast right wing wakos or stupid. Can I just not think its a good idea?
[updated Sat Sep 27 17:00:19 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 17:00
fortescue
bad idea lol
[updated Sat Sep 27 17:00:50 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 17:00
I don't feel Mr. Dion comes across as "all-knowing" or arrogant, as a previous poster wrote. I think he leaks humility too much, which may have been is undoing. He didn't fight the constant attacks from Harper whereas, Obama, for instance, comes out all guns blazing overnight..
I didn't care about Dion's many votes on piddly matters that kept the Cons in power. He lost me when he caved on Afghanistan, and agreed to extend this most failed "mission." But now, it's down to one or the other.
I still take the most trustworthy and decent guy and that would be Mr. Dion.
[updated Sat Sep 27 17:14:01 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 17:14
Foxer
there is no humility in him at all. And the problem isn't just him - most liberal supporters i've seen (including you rsharp) insist that in essence if we don't agree with everything dion says, we're brainwashed or stupid.
Now - you CAN get away with looking arrogant - if you're right all the time. If you're really talented. Harper sometimes comes across as arrogant, but he's very good at what he does. Dion comes across as arrogant - but also comes across as indecisive and weak willed. That is a deadly combination in politics, you'll get slaughtered every time.
As an example - he's going to oppose harper and he's ready for an election! Oh wait - he's not ready and he's going to abstain from voting! Ahh - but NOW we're ready and next year there will be no abstaining, we'll probably have an eleciton in january! But wait - we ARE going to abstain and there will be no election. But i'm going to sell my Green tax all summer, and people will love it and we'll have an eleciton in the fall. WAIT! HARPER CALLED ONE!!!! WHAT?!? NO FAIR!!!!!
You can't do that.
[updated Sat Sep 27 18:34:37 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 18:34
Foxer, Dion isn't humble "at all" and we Harper detractors are brainwashed and stupid. Thanks for confirming my opinions.
And arrogance is OK, if you are talented enough to deserve it? Like Harper? lol That's a good one..
There, you have another opportunity to ignore what I say and come out broadside against the demon, Mr. Dion. Take your best shot.
Is it your own, by the way?
[updated Sat Sep 27 21:39:03 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 21:39
Foxer
Awww - are you having a bad day because your losing still?
Hey - i'm sorry dion is both arrogant and incompetant (as this campaign is quickly showing). You can hardly blame ME for that.
And i'm sorry so many of his supporters such as yourself use the childish argument "you just don't understaaaaaand!" instead of logic or reason. Again - not my fault.
And there's no point taking 'shots' at dion, what's the point of shooting something that's already died on its own? :)
[updated Sat Sep 27 21:58:57 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 21:58
Foxer, your credibility wanes again.
[updated Sat Sep 27 22:05:32 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 22:05
Foxer
oooo - you've got me writhing in the grip of your impeccable logic again. :)
You never had any credibility to start with, so you're pretty much still holding where you were :)
[updated Sat Sep 27 22:10:05 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 22:10
tbonepearson
CTV is full of [EDITED BY MODERATOR], just saw a piece saying the NDP was tied or doing better than the Liberals.
[updated Sat Sep 27 19:28:25 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 19:28
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
LIBERALMAN
I HAVE to bring this 'gem' to the pages of Nanos. Please 'Google' :
('Ottawa Valley Borden Line' )to see that Ontario was legislated by John Diefenbaker
(PM 1958-1963 in majority) to pay approx. DOUBLE for their oil and HAD to buy it from Alberta to
help Alberta with their oil production. The 'Borden Line' was the border between Ontario and
Quebec. The 5 provinces east of that line paid much less for their 'imported' oil than Ontario did
for Alberta oil, thus subsidizing Alberta from the early 60s to the early 70s. Those cpcers who constantly say on other sites and 'boards' that Ontario is a 'welfare' province or anything in that vein, had better READ this site. It's the 4th one down on the page when you 'Google' it. THAT means, of course, that Alberta was most likely the biggest 'welfare case' in this country save Quebec for that approx. ten years. I doubt very much that few if ANY posters here know of this as they are too young. I was born in 1944 and I lived through it !! It's the TRUTH !! Alberta - welfare galore from us in Ontario and when they were asked to help out during the 'oil cirisis' of the early 70s when OPEC had shut off the taps to us, they refused, the greedy sods !! Trudeau HAD to implement the NEP just to get a greedy province 'onside' to help and they STILL got a good deal, in spite of the lies of their own MLAs. Eventually oil 'tanked' in the early 80s and Alberta went into a 'tailspin' - NOTHING anyone could do about it, but the Alberta MLAs convinced Albertans that it was Ontario's and Trudeau's fault which is completely false.
Nevertheless, Alberta gladly took the handouts and turned their backs on us when they were 'swimming' in 'the devil's brew, commonly known as oil !!
That's the final truth for Alberta. The 'urban legend's bubble is burst. Alberta's MLAs past and present are to blame for it and harper revels in it. READ the piece, especially the top of page 26 - It's ALL there !!
Cheers - LIBERALMAN
[updated Sat Sep 27 19:57:47 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 19:57
234 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Turn to NDP to stop Harper, Layton says after poll gains
JULIAN BELTRAME
The Canadian Press
September 27, 2008 at 9:24 PM EDT
OTTAWA — A resurgent NDP Leader Jack Layton called on voters to flock to him as the only legitimate alternative to the Conservatives after national polls showed the traditional also-ran party closing in on second place.
“Here in B.C., the choice is very clear, if you want to stop [Stephen] Harper only New Democrats can do it,” he told a rally in Vancouver.
“Everywhere I go, at every family home, at every kitchen table, I'm hearing the same thing. This time Canada is going to make a different choice. This year we're going to say goodbye to 25 years of failed leadership in Ottawa.”
Mr. Layton's soaring optimism comes after a new Canadian Press Harris-Decima put the NDP at 19 per cent in popular support, up five points from the start of the campaign – and within striking distance of the Liberals, who remained stagnant at 23 per cent."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080927.welexwrap0927/BNStory/politics
And it goes on from there.
Well - this is what we were expecting sooner or later. I thought he might wait till the debates, but that Harris Decima poll seems to have emboldened him into making it an issue now.
So - will the people bite? Will this remain his message? Is the ndp going to move up in the polls in the next couple of days?
Place your bets people :)
[updated Sat Sep 27 22:45:54 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 22:45
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
I am in favour of a smaller more efficient Federal Government. I don't mean gutting our services or protection of our National interests but I want our Provinces and cities to have more taxing power to address local priorities.
What are the priorities you would like to see our Federal Government enact in the next HOC? (Keep it Federal ie Healthcare or property taxes are not a Federal jurisdiction)
[updated Sun Sep 28 12:03:26 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 12:03
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.