Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives at 39% nationally and maintaining their 15-point lead over the Liberals. The Liberals follow with 24%, the NDP with 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. In the province of Ontario, the Conservatives have pulled ahead of the Liberals, while in the West, the NDP moves into second place above the Liberals. On the question of who would make the country’s best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper leads with 40%, followed by Jack Layton at 19%. Stéphane Dion trails with 10% support, a new low for the Liberal Leader, followed by Elizabeth May at 5%, and Gilles Duceppe at 3%.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 24, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 39 (-1)
- Liberal Party 24 (-1)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (NC)
- Undecided 15% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 40% (NC)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 10% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 7% (-1)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 109 (-2)
- Jack Layton 54 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 30 (-8)
- Gilles Duceppe 14 (+2)
- Elizabeth May 13 (-1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Dion's leadership numbers in Western Canada are down to 5%. No wonder the Libera... more
skoblin (British Columbia) 26 Sep 14:13
The Nanos numbers are starting to converge with the Decima and EKOS numbers, who... more
Kelvin (British Columbia) 26 Sep 14:21
Looks like things are pretty much unchanged other than Dion and the Liberals dow... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 26 Sep 14:16
You're letting your optimism get the better of you, I think.... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 26 Sep 19:32
Funny story about the NEP. On Halloween 1982 (I was 7) my father took me out ... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 26 Sep 19:38
As I said in an earlier post I think Dion's main problem is his naivete. He is b... more
christine (Ontario) 26 Sep 19:53
Comments
skoblin
Dion's leadership numbers in Western Canada are down to 5%. No wonder the Liberals are tanking in the West. With Liberal support in this region at 16% now, only 1 in 3 Liberals in the West think their leader would make a good PM.Expect more Liberal slides in BC I guess.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:13:59 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:13
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Regina Beach Boy
Looks like things are pretty much unchanged other than Dion and the Liberals downslide, this maybe the total purging of the Liberal Party which is precisely what it needs to comeback, just like whats happening with the stock market, total capitulation.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:16:09 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:16
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Kelvin
The Nanos numbers are starting to converge with the Decima and EKOS numbers, who usually put the Greens higher and the Liberals lower. Because Nanos doesn't rotate choices in voter intention but leaves the question open-ended, it means that people who used to think of choosing Green only upon suggested are actually volunteering that choice, mostly at the expense of the Liberals.
Which means Dion's Green flank is now a serious threat. Everyone's taking votes from him.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:21:40 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:21
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
kschell
So, the CPC lead holds, and they take the lead in Ontario.
I can't see this getting any better for the Liberals.
It was interesting to see the contrast in the short clips of each of the party leaders on the news last night. Dion appeared to be ranting, barely able to get a sentence out he is so enraged about Harper's alleged mismanagement of the economy - a laugher considering the spending promises Dion has made. Then Harper calmly discussing the fact that the economic situation in the US is going to affect us in some way, that things will not be great, but also not that bad, as long as we don't do anything stupid (read: carbon tax).
If their respective demeanor's carry on through the debate, then this election is over, and we could even be looking at an NDP opposition.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:22:56 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:22
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
This is incredible. Down for, what, the 5th day in a row?
Interesting how the 'who would make best pm' question so closely mirrors the results of the parties - except the libs. Dion rates 10 percent - i have to wonder if the liberals numbers will keep falling until they are closer to that mark.
The old 'core liberal' support seems to be fading - as more leave, more feel it's ok to leave.
About 12 days to the debates - they have to level out SOMETIME before then, a lot of people will make their decisions based on the debates i'm sure. They might slide after that again, but surely they can't go much lower than this right now can they?
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:23:15 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:23
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Hi Nik;
I know all the party candidates have big hearts and want what's best for Canada. Given a chance I'm sure they would try their best. To get elected I suspect some would make promises beyond their means.
When I lay all the platforms on the table; there is no contest as to which party can see their platforms through.
I wonder what percentage of Canadians actually understand the platforms or how many vote their for traditional parties.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:37:02 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:37
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
Mr. Dion's leadership numbers continue to fall. This is not surprising after the press conference on TV this morning. It was in Gerard Kennedy's riding and I assume it was at a Seniors home. There were few in attendance. When it came to questions Dion handled himself very badly. To put it kindly he looked like an amateur. When asked about the anti semetic remarks of his Wpg. candidate he simply said he was dealing with the Canadian Jewish Congress. How lame! When pressed some of his supporters tried to stop the media from asking questions.
In the same press conference a reporter asked a question and Kennedy had to repeat it to Dion in French. They say he has a hearing problem. Coupled with the fact he is colour blind what other physical ailments is he going to blame for his poor showing.
It is becoming more clear everyday that Dion is not qualified to be prime minister of Canada. His over the top rhetoric is not helping him and his failure to convince Canadians that his platform is sound is going to see the Liberals experience an unprecedented defeat in this election.
Jack Layton and his socialist rag tag bunch could become the official opposition.
Dion will go down in history as the worst leader the Liberal party has ever had with Paul Martin right behind him. Who would have thought?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:24:39 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:24
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
What strategy can Dion employ at this point to slow down the negative trend line of his party? I'm not confident in his ability to communicate in English in person or on TV and see it as another set back for his party?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:28:28 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:28
91 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Sending in Bob Rae is not an option BTW.
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:30:00 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:30
Foxer
Well - he's got a real pickle.
His best and only viable stratagy would be to convince voters that they should rally around the liberal brand to oppose harper. That's worked in the past. Unfortunately there's a problem - he sucked eggs as opposition, abstaining from 43 important votes. The ndp is going to counter that this proves that THEY are the only real opposition.
He's got to start looking a lot more 'leader -like' - but frankly if he hasn't been able to by this point he's probably not going to be able to.
He'll continue to hit on the liberal sucesses of the past financially but that really only goes so far - he DID suggest an 80 billion dollar increase in spending and people realize he's no chretien.
There really is no recovery for him at this point - all he can try to do is lessen the damage and the best way to do that is rally people to the liberal brand as the 'anti harper' vote and hope somehow he can make it stick
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:40:22 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:40
If he uses the track record of surpluses than he opens under that surplus you did nothing for the environment, National Daycare etc. I don't understand how he can use that without giving his opponents free shots about the objective they did not accomplish.
[updated Fri Sep 26 17:22:52 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 17:22
Foxer
He's facing that no matter what he does. And worse - that was 16 years ago, and everyone knows it wasn't harper that tanked the economy, it was the problems in the US. Canada has actually been weathering it pretty decent.
[updated Fri Sep 26 17:38:26 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 17:38
christine
I know much has been made about Dion's English but to me that is not really the problem. His English is actually pretty good in regard to both syntax and vocabulary, although heavily accented. His English is certainly far superior to Harper's ability in French.
Yes, he speaks with an accent but the greater problem seems to be that no one is really that interested in what he is saying, hence the negative trend line.
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:39:27 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:39
I have a difficult time understanding his speeches and the media give him less time vs Jack to make sound bites because of it I suspect.
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:58:57 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:58
larryl
Christine. Are you saying people prejudge anything he might have to say? They don't listen but have a pre determined opinion and nothing he says could change their mind. Who says attack ads don't work?
[updated Fri Sep 26 17:50:08 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 17:50
christine
Yes, I think that is the problem. An additional problem for Dion is his naivete. He (and evidently his handlers as well) seem to think that all they had to do was come up with a platform which people would then flock to. And the Green Shift is a reasonable plan; even prominent economists have said so. But a plan, no matter how good, will not help you in the face of unrelenting smear and attack.
[updated Fri Sep 26 18:15:01 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 18:15
Lex Llewdor
It's too complicated. You can't sell a complicated platform.
Chrétien's platforms were really simple (Jobs Jobs Jobs). Mulroney's platform in 1988 had one point (NAFTA).
If you can't explain the Green Shift in 20 seconds, you can't sell it.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:32:06 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:32
christine
It need not be complicated and it does actually have a simple slogan--"Richer, Fairer, Greener". The problem is in the failure to convey this platform in easily understandable terms. Thus, the problem is not so much the message (the platform) but the messenger (Dion and his advisers.)
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:33:24 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:33
christine, don't the media have a duty here too? Why can't/don't our TV networks and newspapers explain this simple logic? I would suggest because they're beholden to their corporate masters. Even the CBC routinely runs to right-wing types for commentary. Today it was the CD Howe Institute (on the financial crisis?). Yesterday, the dean of a business school (executive compensation).
We form our impressions from headlines and those who are given platforms. Which party is more for environmental protection, sustainable development and social justice isn't among their criteria in making those determinations.
To me, it's just wacky.
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:44:28 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:44
christine
You may well be right about the media bias but the fact remains that the platform could have presented much better than it was. I happen to have the "Richer, Fairer, Greener Action Plan" in front of me and while there are a lot of good ideas in it reads very much like a grad school research paper. It is way too long at 70 pages. The excessive detail is not only unnecessary, it actually dissuades people from reading it. In my view, the platform should have been booklet length--10 pages or so.
[updated Fri Sep 26 21:01:47 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 21:01
Agreed. Communications 101.
[updated Fri Sep 26 21:52:35 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 21:52
If you ask Conservatives they say the CBC is the liberal station, each person believes any story that has reflects negatively on their leader is biased.
[updated Fri Sep 26 23:56:09 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 23:56
westerner (suspended)
Who could possibly believe that the Green Shaft Plan will make Canadians "richer"? It will make most of us poorer as the income tax reductions will not be offset by carbon taxes on everything!!
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:54:09 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:54
Craig
Actually Christine, it is thought that Harper speaks French really well.
I don't base decisions on meaningless things like looks or speech, so I have never made fun of Dion's English. However, he gets things wrong so frequently it is frustrating. He pronouces words incorrectly, says the wrong word at times, and his grammar is rather poor. I don't see why he doesn't speak French more during his stumps.
Televisions have translators these days, people will understand.
Dion's problem is that he doesn't look like a Prime Minister. He huffs and puffs, gets easily agitated and excited, fambles when he is faced with something he doesn't understand, and acts aloof when things aren't going his way.
People get turned off when politicians act that way.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:45:46 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:45
christine
I didn't mean to suggest that Harper spoke French badly; only that in regard to syntax and vocabulary Dion's English is more complex than Harper's French.
Also, I am basing my assessment mostly on what I remember from the French debates of 2006; Harper's French might be a lot better now. I haven't heard him speaking French much other than catching him on occasion in Question Period earlier this year. The trouble with question period is all the answers ever consisted of were the same talking points repeated over and over. I admit that's not much to base linguistic ability on.
Layton's French actually isn't that bad and is more "real" than Harper's. By that I mean it's more natural; the way you would talk in actual conversation rather than in a speech.
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:40:58 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:40
dgbeaulne
I don't know if Dion can. The downward trend of the Liberal's is more than the perception of Dion in the public mind, it's the perception of the party as a whole. People still perceive the party insider's as arrogant. Dion may have the biggest of hearts, but the brain-trust still fancies itself as the Natural Governing Party. That veiled arrogance is what has completely turned me off from the Liberals. Unfortunately, they recruit candidates that believe they are the only ones that can run this country properly, and this perpetuates the arrogance. In my riding, Essex - ON, Susan Whelan is trying her third time at regaining her riding because it is rightfully her's. Her father, Eugene Whelan, was the Liberal MP before her, so to her it is rightfully her's because her father held it for so long. This is the arrogance that angers me, but she see's nothing wrong with it.
So it's more than just Dion, the cancer of arrogance is a large contributor to their demise.
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:43:03 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:43
So from 95 Seats to what? Mine is 84
[updated Fri Sep 26 17:23:01 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 17:23
dgbeaulne
I'd be surprised if they break 75.
[updated Fri Sep 26 17:38:37 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 17:38
Foxer
I'm thinking closer to 50's. Give or take.
With today's numbers they look around 59. And I think they'll bleed more than they are now.
[updated Fri Sep 26 18:03:01 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 18:03
Lex Llewdor
You're letting your optimism get the better of you, I think.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:32:41 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:32
westerner (suspended)
I agree. This game isn't over yet.
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:56:33 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:56
Foxer
If dion plays the rest of the game the way he's played the first half - i may turn out to be a pessimist in the end :)
I look at patterns - and i see one emerging here. Barring a near miricle - dion will sink lower than he is considerably and the seat count projections show that even a little more sink will put them at close to 50 seats.
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:49:33 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 00:49
Really?
[updated Fri Sep 26 23:59:05 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 23:59
Foxer
Really what? The seat count? Yes, at the moment 59's a realistic projection.
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:51:31 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 00:51
HC in AB
Atlantic 15
Quebec 15
Ontario 40 (mostly GTA)
West 5
Total 75
[updated Fri Sep 26 17:58:53 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 17:58
Foxer
I think that's very optimistic. I think they'll do well to get 3 out of the west. I also think that they'll do well to take 10 out of quebec. The gap is widening in ontario as well and i think they'll do well to get 34 out of ontario.
Atlantic canada i'm not so sure about. You may be right there. But it wouldn't surprise me to see them collapse a lot more.
[updated Fri Sep 26 18:04:49 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 18:04
So ABC is not working. PEI is in as well play?
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:00:53 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 00:00
Foxer
Yes - the truckers union there (which is like the pope to those people :) ) is very against dion's plan. Obviously with good reason.
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:52:17 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 00:52
4 seats in PEI are we talking sweep?
[updated Sat Sep 27 09:49:21 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 09:49
Foxer
I doubt it's a sweep.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:04:24 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:04
larryl
DG. It is strange how a person's view of things can be so different from another . From what I recall of Whelan did a pretty good job and his constituents thought the same thing. They re-elected him many times not because he thought it was his devine right but because he was doing a good job. If his daughter is persistent enough to run 3 times I would tend to believe she would do a good job if only to live up to her father's reputation. Have you looked at her potential and ability or judged her as a Liberal who you have been duped into believing they think they have a devine right to govern. The Liberals were elected 80 % of the the time because voters cast their ballot for them. This claim Liberals believe they have a divine right to govern is a very affective attack strategy used by the CPC to make the Liberals look arrogant . The voters bestowed power to the Grits many times because they were the best choice, not because of their attitude toward being entitled to governing. Advertising does really work doesn't it?
[updated Fri Sep 26 17:41:08 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 17:41
kschell
One would have to wonder if the Liberals would have been elected so many times in the last 15 years if there was:
a) no Bloc
b) a united conservative party
After 1993 there really was no other choice for a national party.
[updated Fri Sep 26 17:51:47 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 17:51
Foxer
There's little doubt - a united right would have beat the libs in 97 and 2000 or at least had a much better chance.
As soon as there was a united right - even tho it had had no time to get organized it held martin to a minority and then kicked him out.
Chretien won because there really was no opposition to speak of. He only took 37 and 40 percent of the vote respectively.
Which is likely what we're going to see in reverse for the next few elections - the libs and ndp and greens fighting it out for the left, while the cpc takes majority gov'ts thanks to the split by being a center party.
Dion made a mistake moving the party to the left. It will be a while before they recover from that.
[updated Fri Sep 26 18:12:27 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 18:12
So Harper learned a valuable lesson for the Liberals?
[updated Sat Sep 27 09:49:58 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 09:49
Foxer
I don't think harper misses much.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:06:01 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:06
larryl
Kschell . That accounts for 13 years but how would you explain the other 90 or so that the Liberals won. Was there no other alternative when there was only two parties . Since they won so often one might think the voters chose them because they were the best choice.If you look back Mulroney might be to blame for both the Bloc{Bouchard} and the Reform party who were sick of his corrupt government . You can't blame the Liberals for the destruction of the P.C. party.
[updated Fri Sep 26 18:38:18 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 18:38
HC in AB
The reason that the Liberals have been so successful is that they have been very adept at reading the public mood and swinging from centre left to centre right as required to respond to the electorate. They moved to the right fiscally in '93 to take over the Reform/Alliance vote that was moving away from them. Paul Martin in Finance was the best Conservative that ever held office. When he became prime minister he seemed to morph into a left of centre Liberal who was no longer responding to the electorate.
Dion, I have no doubt, deeply believes that his proposals are the right thing to do, but he has not been able to respond to the public that is not where he is. If you want to do something like the "Green Shift", you get the majority, then do it, similar to Mulroney and the GST. A highly unpoplular move that was part of what sent the PC's into oblivion, but creating that revenue source that increased with GDP growth and wasn't tied t0 one economic sector (the old manufacturers sales tax) gave Martin the fiscal room to balance the budget (together with other things like falling interest rates, NAFTA etc.).
For the Liberals to develop platform around such a major change in the structure of our taxation is a very "Un-Liberal" thing to do. They have generally run on their vision of the country and a few specific promises, and then only implemented what they could afford.
[updated Fri Sep 26 18:12:26 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 18:12
kschell
I agree with you HC. I have never been able to figure out what the Liberals really stand for. The CPC has their 'founding principles' on their web site - some lofty goals, but they resonate with me.
I can't find anything similar on the Liberal web site (have looked many times over the past couple of years). Which fits with my experience - I can't discern from their policies or actions what guiding principles they have, other than to try to be popular.
[updated Fri Sep 26 18:34:33 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 18:34
HC in AB
But they have been very successful and developed a loyal following. They have been a lot, actually, like most successful polititians here in the west what a poly-sci professer friend of mine described as "pragmatic populists".... figure out what the people want and give it to them. He used that to describe such people as Tommy Douglas, Allen Blakeney, Ross Thatcher, Ernest Manning, Peter Lougheed, Ralph Klien and W.A.C Bennett, most of whom, in their own right, have been a successful as the LPC, and if you really look at it, none of them were much different frome each other in either style of government or policy.
Dion appears to be unable to read the public, and if he has, he either got it wrong, or he can't communicate the message.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:04:35 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:04
majere
Dion at present is the total sum of all of his actions.
All of actions were declared very bad tacticaly which destroys strategicaly.
First the 43 absentions without first explaining in a news conference that the Libs are in effect broke and cannot fairly represent the people of Canada as a viable Party.
Second, he missed oppurtunities to nail Harper when Harper told PEI that they better elect Cons so that they have represention in caucus and the rewards to follow - in other words, if you don't vote for Harper, Harper ignores you. So much for representing the Country as a whole while the governing Party.
He missed the hyprocrital situation when Harper raised sexuall consent to 16 because people at that age make mistakes as they are not mature enough yet, but, locks up 14 yr olds who are not mature enough yet to make decisions.
Dion missed many oppurnities and his only hope now is to viciously attack Harper and Layton with all the dirt and by putting all these miss-quotes together in time for the debates.......also stating that after reviewing the economy and talking to people across Canada the Green shift will be put on hold unless there are prosperous times ahead to allow implimention.
Dion has very few options due to his own "narrowly defined myopic scope that a PHD by default gives.
He can do it, but I believe he does not have the lateral view vs his very narrow linier view.
Just MHO
cheers :) majere, the commoner from the streets of the falls.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:23:48 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:23
christine
As I said in an earlier post I think Dion's main problem is his naivete. He is basically a decent guy but he is not a good politician in today's political climate where smear and slander have replaced reasoned debate.
There are a few problems with your argument. First, the party may be broke but it does not necessarily follow that as a result Liberals cannot represent Canada as a viable party. Lack of funds, however, makes it difficult to fight back when negative ads run constantly, and outside of the election period--unprecedented in Canadian history until Harper.
As for the abstentions, no,I did not always agree with them but there was some merit in the argument that an election was not warranted at the time.
Dion (and other Liberals) have repeatedly attacked Harper for his positions, including all the ones you cite here such as Harper's views on Atlantic Canada as well as raising the age of consent and jailing 14 year-olds. These issues and many more have been discussed at length on Liberal blogs and on the Liberal party web site. The problem is that most people don't seem to know about them because they don't get much coverage in the main stream media.
You may be right that Dion's only hope now is to viciously attack Harper but this is not really in his character so if he were to do it, it would most likely backfire. In a way he is much like Robert Stanfield; basically a good guy but a lousy politician.
I'm not sure what you mean when you say that his PhD necessarily gives him a myopic scope (I have a PhD myself and I don't think I'm myopic!). If anything, I think Harper has an even more myopic world view, and certainly a more divisive one.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:53:18 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:53
majere
Good points.
I mean that Dion acts too linear, one step at a time versus first thinking of long term consequences from a wide view as there are always many variables to consider. I know you already know this simple stuff.
IMHO Dions' team has to come up with all the hyprocrital stands that the Cons have stated thus far, get Dion well versed in them, and then attack during the debate and the odd little attack every news scrum.
One other example of Harper being a hypocrit was when he stated that the Opposition is there to help the government, not try to sabotage them. Dion just has to point out when Harper was in Opposition and get about the top 10 examples.
cheers :) majere, the commoner from the streets of the falls
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:11:35 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:11
Foxer
Hold on.
Dion has been smearing and slandering pretty hard for quite a while. And he doesn't mind when his people do it either.
There is no excuse for 'canada not wanting an election' right now - he really couldn't do much there. But he'd actually have been better off if he'd just voted to support the cpc than to abstain and as you say, explain the libs can't challenge the cpc right now - or even better just go to an election and bite the bullet even tho you haven't got all your ducks in a row.
Instead he flip flops - he's against harper, but he won't vote - but then he says he will - but he doesn't. and he's against carbon taxes, but then he's for them, and he's going to run a 'clean' campaign and the next day he's calling harper a liar, etc etc. People notice that stuff.
And the fact is - people understand at length about things like the changes to the young offenders act. But they're sick of seeing some 15 year old commit a horrible crime and get off.
Dion is just a little out of touch with.. well.. about 75 percent of the public at the moment. People care about that stuff. Judges still have discretion, it's not a 'manditory' sentence.
And harper's views on the atlantics are not that important compared to what a 7 cent a litre tax on diesel will do to them.
Dion's not a 'nice guy who's finishing last' - he's an idealist who is more concerned about his concepts than in teh realities of what Canadians want and need at the moment.
And i doubt the liberal party is going to come back from this unless they completely re-invent themselves.
[updated Sat Sep 27 01:21:51 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 01:21
majere
Your right Foxer, Dion is not coming back. He is lying in a bed he has made since he took over the Leadership. I believe his only hope is basicaly bring Harper down to his level by pointing out Harper inconsicities. I believe its his only hope for a Liberal "hold onto what we got".
Of course Dion will gone after next election along with his Green Shift and Billions dollar committments.
Then the re-inventing.
My only hope now is a Con Minority as I sit as a Lib supporter for the sole reason to stop Cons.
Then perhaps we can get rid of the ole narrow focused promise anything as a new sun comes up.
cheers Foxer (nothing but respect for your posts) :) majere
[updated Sat Sep 27 06:31:11 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 06:31
Foxer
You know - going after harper is the traditional solution and harper has some weak points (all politicians do, and all gov'ts more so) but it rarely works. Often it just comes across as desperate, and the problem is he doesn't have much that hasn't already been said. Can't trust harper, harper's bush, blah blah - it's all been done to death and the public is desensitized - just like more 'not a leader' crap really wouldn't affect dion.
He needs to do something else - and i've been racking my brains for what would make a real difference.
What he really needs to do is show leadership. He still has time this week for one more major policy announcement. There's one subject that's been ignored and it's health care (aside from layton's pill plan) - yet it ranks high with people as a voting issue even in this election.
I can think of 3 or 4 things he could do that would be inexpensive but extremely effective and would gain praise from doctors, and make him stand out a little.
It's got to be SOMETHING like that - if he just attacks and attacks he will probably free fall after the debates. Kim Campbell tried that - Turner tried that - Paul martin tried that and he's the only one it worked for even a little, but he had a very strong platform to go with it. And really it didn't work that well, the whole 'soldiers, in our cities, etc' thing set him back.
Maybe democratic reform - probably doesn't resonate well enough to gain the kind of votes he needs, but it would be something - announce a citizens coalition to examine proportional representation and senate reform with a referendum after. That might pick him up some seats in the west believe it or not (big senate reform folks out here, and bc voted 60 percent in favour of STV in our referendum). Again - won't cost much but it may win votes.
I don't know. It's hard to say but my gut tells me if it's just 'attack and scare' he'll tank.
As to a con minority/majority - i wouldn't lose sleep over it. People worry too much over stuff like that. There's really not much harper can do in 4 years that couldn't be undone if people really didn't like it. But the Libs need at LEAST 4 years to focus on themselves instead of thinking about an election that could happen at any moment. And 4 is optimistic.
You probably think I'm saying that because i'm a cpc fan - but remember we faced this same question years ago when we realized kim campbell was not the woman to lead canada, and the PC party had become stagnant and corrupt. We were staring down the same barrel. And it's been hard - we essentially gave the libs 12 years unchallenged because our side had split, and the libs have done some truly terrible things to people like me. I mean terrible. Not - gee i don't like that but really bad.
In the end tho - it was the right thing to do and i'd do it again. This year the Liberal party in bc has gone 'bad' - selling right of run river rights they shouldn't, putting taxes they shoulnd't onto people, becoming corrupt. Next year i'll vote ndp. Me - that's like jews saying "well, looks like we're going to have to vote for hitler this year boys'. :) But - it'll give the liberals a smak in the face to lose and give them a chance to reshuffle and get back to their roots. And we need that.
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:20:50 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 12:20
Foxer
Don't worry about a CPC majority - it's less scary than you think. It always is. What people on the left - especially liberal supporters - need to focus on now is 'what next'. 4 years is not a long time to rebuild a party. It's not a long time to look at options like merging the left or re branding yourself or cleaning out the deadwood to make way for fresh ideas and a solid foundation.
I mean - what does it really MEAN to be 'progressive' in this day and age? What does it MEAN to be liberal? Not just in general terms but in very specific terms - what does it stand for?
Work that out - then look at some of the liberal policies and decide if they REALLY are in keeping with what progressives REALLY believe. For example - should the left wing REALLY be attacking the honest and very canadian culture of firearms ownership and hunting in an effort to 'stop crime'? Does that make sense - to be intolerant of someone else's culture because it's different than yours? Or - should it be all about dealing with the criminal by looking at root causes of crime and more effective rehab methods as an alternative to longer sentences. Just one example where liberal 'ideals' and policy don't necessarily match up.
We're still working on that on the cpc side of things - it's a long process. The gay marrage issue for example was a big deal at the last policy convention, where numerous gay conservatives stood up and demanded a change. It is not in keeping with the ideals of personal responsibility and freedom (very right wing ideals) to deny people the right to choose their partners. It had an impact - do you see it come up as an issue on the cpc side of things anymore?
Liberals need to do that. In my humble opinion anyway for what it's worth :)
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:21:02 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 12:21
christine
I hesitated in replying to this response since your remarks are so obviously partisan but I shall try.
While Dion has been attacking Harper by no stretch of the imagination could it compare to the smear and slander coming from the Conservative camp (the NotaLeader web site, the defecating puffin, attack ads running non-stop from February of last year, etc.)
It is not a smear to call someone a liar when he is, in fact, a liar. Not only has Harper lied about Income Trusts and the Atlantic Accord (to name just two issues) Conservatives lie when they claim the Liberals will increase the GST and cancel the child tax benefit, as they do in their attack ads that are currently airing.
As for changes to the Young Offenders Act, as I explained in another post (on Wednesday I think) this is pure politics. And it will never happen. Even if Harper were to bring in new legislation it would never withstand a challenge to the Charter. He is using supporters like you to get votes in much the same way he used the anti same sex marriage crowd in the last election.
I have met Dion and I can tell you he actually is a nice guy, and, yes, he is an idealist. But I would rather have Dion's idealism than what Harper is offering--a poorer, less fair and less green Canada.
[updated Sat Sep 27 11:08:13 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 11:08
majere
Hi Christine, I agree whole heartedly with you :)
I IMHO just gave an overview as to what Dion can do to stop the slide.
You have provided more firepower to Dion :)
cheers :) majere (ABC)
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:10:54 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 12:10
Foxer
He'll get murdered if he stays with just the attack stuff - he needs something else to give him momentum if he's going to stop the slide. And really this is his last week to pull something out of his hat, it's very hard after the debates to change direction.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:39:41 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:39
Foxer
We can be partisan but still civil, right? :) Nothing wrong with a healthy debate, and it IS election time after all.
Lets start with the attacks. You introduce two factors when you compare them - "severity" for lack of a better word and "frequency".
I'd have to argue with you that realistically as far as 'severity' (or, the nastyness of them) goes - it's not fair to say harper has been worse at all. "not a leader" to compare with "hidden right wing agenda to destroy canada'. Puffin poop that was not authorized by the PM and removed immediately vs "pig in a sweater", which went uncommented on by dion.
You cannot tell me that the nature of the attacks has been 'worse' from the PM. That would not be fair. Dion's called him everything from incompetent to a liar to some sort of right wing war monger to god knows what. The NDP have been even worse.
So lets be honest - for 'nastiness' of the campaigns, that's gotta be a wash. Paul martin started this and dion kept it going. (tho dion is probably less nasty that martin was by a hair).
Frequency - if DIon had more money he would have done it every bit as much as harper. He DID put up some very nasty youtube videos, etc. And harper's ads aren't saying dion is a bad person, or a liar, or has some 'hidden agenda' to eat babies, or the like. They simply say he's not a leader. The liberal party ran more attack ads than the CPC when they had more money, they're running less now that they're broke. It's not a 'morals' thing - its a financial thing.
Now - you claim it's not a 'smear' to say someone is a liar if they're a liar. I think it is but lets say you're right. If that's true - it's DEFINITELY not a 'smear' to say they're not a leader when they're not a leader. And lets face it - dion is not much of a leader.
And it IS a smear to suggest this 'hidden agenda' stuff which is nonsense. It's certainly no MORE fair than to say dion will raise the gst - something he's talked about before. God knows how many times libs have said one thing during an election then done something else after - remember trudeau and 'wage caps' and how evil they were? Then - 6 months after the election what did we get?
Or the gst with chretien? After all - dion said carbon taxes were a bad idea a year ago. And he said he WOULD consider raising the gst a year ago.
So to be fair - if you're going to say it's not a smear when dion does it - then you have to accept it's not a smear when harper does it. Or it's a smear when both do it (which is my take) and dion's no better than harper in that respect.
The legislation will stand up to the charter. I posted the court case that was cited and explained where people 'interpreting' it made a mistake.
it is not fair to offer youth protection of a lower level of 'guilt', but then require them to justify why THEY deserve to have the benefit of that law. That is not in keeping with the fundimental principles of justice. Which is what the judge said. It is up to the crown to prove they don't deserve it and should be tried as adults.
There is NO problem raising the penalties within the youth law itself. Judges will still have discretion during sentencing.
And here's a little bit of inside information for you - it was US, the supporters - who killed the gay marriage issue. Harper didn't use us and then abandon us - he was told to drop it. Because he'd already made a statement that it would be reexamined - he allowed the vote but as you know it was a watered down version and never expected to pass. That was us, not him.
I have to tell you - there is nothing fair about dion's carbon tax. And I have severe doubts if there's anything green about it either - the guy was in charge of kyoto and emissions went up, not down.
You have to admit - there's no goals, milestones or targets. That is never a good thing in a plan, and i don't care what kind of plan it is.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:02:04 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:02
I think being civil and showing empathy for another point of view is the best way to have a debate. As I have stated I dont make up mind without reviewing the track record and major themes within the party platforms prior to each election. Leadership aside, I understand why blind loyalty is required but in this forum I would like to see some data backing up your statements vs smear and name calling. I can get that in the Yahoo forum from the Gen-Y's.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:52:18 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:52
christine
Yes, I'm partisan too. And I also would like to keep this discourse civil.
I do not like the negativity--the smear and slander--that is so omnipresent in this campaign. No party is innocent here; my point was, that in my opinion, the Conservatives were far worse. The puffin poop thing was on the Conservative web site. Harper may not have personally authorized it but it was the work of the Conservative party.
You have misunderstood Roger Thibault's "pig in a sweater" comment in much the same way that Republicans have misinterpreted Barack Obama's "Lipstick on a Pig" remark. It is actually a very common expression meaning that you can dress something up but it doesn't change what it is.
Harper's ads go much further than saying Dion is not a leader. I have already referred to the ads which falsely claim that Dion will raise the gst and end the Child tax benefit. Yes, Dion criticized these policies when they were introduced but he was hardly alone in this. Virtually every economist of repute denounced the gst cut. And child care advocates argued that the money for the Child tax benefit would have been better spent in actually creating child care spaces. Dion is on record in this campaign saying that he would not restore the gst cuts or cancel the child tax benefit but you don't hear that in the conservative ads.
Another lie is the claim that Dion will raise the gas tax; also false is the claim that the tax on diesel and aviation fuel will rise. Dion has said repeatedly that this won't be the case but, again, the Conservatives ignore this fact in their ads.
You have misunderstood how the Charter will interpret the proposed legislation in regard to Youth justice, The most obvious problem with the proposed legislation is the exemption for Quebec. Since the Young Offenders Act is federal, exempting Quebec can only happen through the use of the Not Withstanding Clause. Even if Harper invokes the clause it will still creates problems because you would have different rules for different parts of the country (a 15 year old in Quebec could literally get away with murder, while a 15 year old elsewhere could be tried and sentenced as an adult.) The other problem is the one I referred to in the post of the other day; it would be in violation of existing legislation and international agreements.
As for same-sex marriage you, personally, may have thought the idea should be dropped but there are many people in that camp who wanted same sex marriage disallowed, voted for Harper for that reason, and felt betrayed when it did not happen.
Dion's carbon tax is fairer than that proposed by Harper because it is tied to income tax cuts. This is not just my opinion; many environmentalists have said the same. And you are wrong to think that the Liberal plan has no goals or targets; these are discussed in detail in the "Richer, Fairer, Greener" Action Plan. I suggest you read it.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:31:47 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 14:31
Foxer
Christine - are you REALLY being entirely fair here?
Pig in lipstick is a common phrase. Pig in a sweater is clearly a direct reference to Mr harper himself.
And as to the gst - Mr dion spent how many months trying to claim that harper knew the details of a bribe before it was offered, and it's pretty obvious that harper didn't. Harper said he knew they'd offer to cover his election expenses, but dion actually posted that he knew about the 'million dollar life insurance policy'. (which is stupid in and of itself - what insurer is going to insure a man dying of cancer?)
Sorry - but if you're being entirely fair and honest - i think you're going to have to concede it's been about the same on both sides. You're trying to split hairs and that's not fair.
DIon is raising diesel taxes by 7 cents. - so he is raising fuel taxes. Just not gasoline. And - we both know that if you tax the manufacturer - that's going to get passed on. Fuel prices will rise one way or another.
And yes - there were many in the camp who wanted same sex marriage gone. And at the policy conventions and outside as well the debate went on. And the majority expressed that it wasn't something they wanted to see and made a strong case. THat's what democracy is all about. And harper went with what the party members wanted.
The funny thing about parties is the more people you elect and the more voices there are, the more moderate things tend to get. Especially when they get in power - nobody cared about what the alliance thought of gay marrage because they weren't going to form govt. When the merger happened, people had to take a more serious look at it, and reflect the wishes of the larger party base.
I think you will find that the law can be written to withstand a charter challenge. It wouldn't be the first time if one didn't admittedly, the libs have had several fail the test, but that usually means minor changes.
It doesn't violate existing law OR international agreements. It really doesnt. I can explain it in detail, but the bottom line is it does not.
Dion's tax is not tied to income tax cuts. The people taxed under the green tax will not necessarily get back what they spent in tax cuts. It's a 'wealth transfer' as well - and remember that's the liberals own words. What that makes it is tax and spend.
WORSE - it's really not tied to tax cuts. If carbon use goes down revenue drops- but the taxes are the same. So that presents an issue. Unless it doesn't work.
And We can SEE what's happening here in bc. Campbell said all the same things - and we can SEE what's happening. It's not theory here - i can actually watch it. So the fact is - i know what you're saying is not accurate. I'm sure you believe it is - but it isn't.
You can argue that the sun wont rise in the east till your blue in the face, but realistically i'm pretty darn sure it will - i've seen it before.
I have read the plan. I read the green tax plan too when it came out - all 50 plus pages.
It is a terrible plan. It would hurt our economy severely. Only the metro areas would have minimal suffering, but most people don't realize how much they depend on activity that takes place outside those areas, and even if that wasn't the case i wouldn't abandon millions of canadians who live in rural areas to suffer for a plan that won't work.
I suggest you start going over the numbers yourself. Here's a few for you - a small trucking company gets about 2000 bucks to drive a load of processed wood from northern bc where it's cut to vancouver. It currently costs about 1200 bucks in fuel for that truck. It costs about 450 bucks for the driver (two day trip). out of what's left, he's got to pay for maintenance, insurance, lease, etc. And then he's got his regular business overhead.
His profit's razor thin right now - 7 cents a litre means something like 60 more bucks a trip comes off that truck - or about 120 a week. Times 3 trucks. That hurts.
There's nothing kind about dion's taxes.
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:17:32 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 16:17
christine
I am being fair; if anything, I am giving the Conservatives more benefit of the doubt than they deserve.
Your ramblings are rather incoherent. Your third paragraph makes no sense at all. What does gst have to do with a bribe, and what bribe are you talking about? I think you are referring to the Cadman thing, which I never mentioned.
About the Green Shift: I think the the Conservative Party would have more credibility on this issue were they to actually release a green plan themselves.
As for "hurting the economy severely" that is already happening thanks to Harper and Flaherty. They managed to take a 13 billion dollar surplus left to them by the previous Liberal government and whittle it away to nothing. If we aren't already in deficit we soon will be. Some fiscal managers you Conservatives turned out to be. Under Harper we have had the most wasteful budgets in Canadian history and yet you claim, with a straight face, that Liberals are big spenders.
Again, you still misunderstand the problems involved in bringing about the proposed changes to the YOA. Yes, you can pass legislation, as I admitted in my last post, but such legislation would not withstand a Charter challenge.
[updated Sat Sep 27 17:23:19 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 17:23
Foxer
Here now - i thought we were going to keep it civil? I wasn't rambling - If you don't understand something just ask, and i'll explain it to you again differently so that you do.
Clearly i went a little too fast for you in the third paragraph. I'll slow it down a little to make it easier for you to undersand.
You claim harper "lied" about dion's intent to raise the gst. And that this incident was proof that Harper is worse than dion.
MY point was that Dion went months and months accusing harper of something that harper never did. To the point where he had to be sued to tell him to shut up, and it's going to cost his party about 4 million bucks now. Dion lied thru his teeth and used a doctored tape to do it. Hence the court ruling telling him to stop.
So - how is it that dion who has accused harper untruthfully of something FAR worse than a gst raise is a 'Nice guy' in your books, but Harper's gst attack suggest he isnt?
That would be complete hypocrisy on your part to suggest, and i was kindly trying to point that out more subtlety, but that didn't work obviously. Hopefully its' more clear now.
(and frankly - given dion's record of flip flops and the libs history of broken promises, i don't believe for a second dion wouldn't raise the gst. I think he will and i think that's a fair call given the facts. But it IS wrong to say that this is a 'fact', as harper portrays in his ad. it's just an educated opinion.
With regards to the environment - The conservatives have released their intentions with the environment, and have done so long before the election. It's pretty modest - but it has goals and it has measurable milestones. It's acutally a plan.
There latest little addition, the new fees for polluters, is frankly LONG overdue. As someone who spends a fair time in the bush and talks with others who do, i can tell you for a fact big companies don't give a flying fig about environmental rules - if it's cheaper to cheat than to pay the fine, that's what they'll do. 40 grand is NOTHING to a company that saves 400 grand by dumping their crap in the river instead of trucking it off.
Of course, that may not directly address the religion that has grown up around carbon, but it's a HUGELY needed environmental policy. 40 grand is nothing, but 8 million or whatever is going to make every company sit up and take notice.
And no - we haven't had the most wasteful budgets in history. How do you defend that claim? It's rediculous. The most wasteful budgets in history occurred under Trudeau. And any one with any knowledge whatsoever of our fiscal history would know that to be true - its not even close.
Regardless - dion has put forward 80 billion dollars in new spending ON TOP of what harper promised pre-election and will be implementing a 15 billion dollar (or thereabouts, it changes from time to time) tax on which won't cover it and is supposed to be revenue neutral. And with all that - there's no estimates of what it'll do to carbon emissions. AND if it works - he's going to have a money problem.
As to the YOA - i don't misunderstand at all. I'm actually quite knowledgeable on the subject. It is you who are not understanding. The court case you posted in the other thread did not deal with any problems regarding the charter and increasing youth sentencing - it dealt with the issue of assuming a youth is an 'adult' automatically. And 'life' in canada is not life. The UN charter will not be offended. And a judge would still have to determine that the crime was henious enough to do it. If there IS a problem it will be very minor and require a change to the wording along the lines of making the sentance '25 years without the possibility of parole' or something instead of life - which is what our 'life' is currently for the most part.
Your arguments tend to show why the libs are failing and have lost their way. To an independent impartial witness there is no way dion looks any different than harper when it comes to attacks - he's just as bad. But liberals have been trying to pretend otherwise. It is not accurate to say the new proposed laws are impossible, they're not.
People catch on to that. You cannot convince people using those tricks - it just makes people distrust the liberal party even more. And with it's track record of dishonesty, the liberal party CANNOT afford that, they have to be seen as being honest and straghtforward. Dion does not come across that way - that's why he's losing.
[updated Sat Sep 27 18:29:51 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 18:29
christine
Unlike you, I shall make my comments brief.
You really should quit before you dig yourself in any deeper. As before, your comments are rambling and incoherent and do little to support your argument.
As I suspected, you were referring to the Cadman thing in the third paragraph.
I shall make it simple for you. The story is true. The tape was not doctored. Therefore Dion did not lie.
About the Green Shift: You are deliberately distorting what the plan is in order to score cheap political points.
You don't understand the Charter.
[updated Sat Sep 27 19:12:03 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 19:12
Foxer
oh please. I see you have your leader's taste for dishonesty.
Harper made it clear from day one that he knew his people were going to offer to repay election expenses if he rejoined the party, and nothing about some magical life insurance policy that a man dying of cancer somehow qualifies for.
Nothing even a little bit illegal about it.
In fact - how about this ... you show me ONE life insurance company anywhere in the world that'll write a policy on a man knowing to be dying of cancer, and i'll admit it's possible. Just one. Can you do that?
No insurance company in the universe insures a dying man. So right off the bat we know SOMETHING is missing from that story.
And if the tape was not doctored, please explain how 3 experts found that it was, and that a judge was so convinced he ordered dion not to use it as a result.
As to the green plan - i'm not distorting anything. Please - show me where i was wrong. Perhaps i missed a page (there WERE so many) - post a link to where the plan shows how much carbon we'll cut down. Or better yet - show the page that explains how we'll pay for the tax cuts as the carbon is reduced.
I understand the charter perfectly. And if you think that i don't - perhaps you'll accept that the judge does in that decision i posted for you. The charter says nothing about not increasing the penalties for youth, just about not automatically treating them like adults.
So - here's what i'm seeing. You've been completely dishonest about the cadman thing. If anything, we know no such life insurance policy could be issued.
Second - we know you're dishonest about the tape. Unless you are more expert than the people who examined it.
As to the rest - just the usual "oh you don't know what you're talkign about' with zero facts, rational argument, or anything resembling a coherent argument.
Disappointing - but not surprising. It's unfortunate that so many liberals are so blinded by ideology that they fail to think for themselves. I posted the judges comments for you - do i need to hold your hand thru it? And the rcmp investigation, the judges decision etc on the cadman affair is a matter of public record.
Again - this kind of dishonesty is why dion is going down, and why the liberals deserve to be destroyed.
[updated Sat Sep 27 19:32:33 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 19:32
christine
Still willing to dig yourself in deeper, I see.
The facts of Cadman as I related them are corroborated by the story which appeared in The Globe and Mail on September 12 . Here is the link:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080912.wcadman0912/BNStory/politics/home
You are, in your comments, also demonstrating a certain naivete about the law. You don't seem to realize that it is a common legal ploy to launch a defamation suit to avoid possibly having to face more serious charges--in this case bribery. The hope is, that with a good lawyer, you can win the defamation suit so that it is less likely that you will then be charged with other offenses. It does not mean you are innocent.
As for the Green plan I suggest you check out today's editorial in the Toronto Sun. Even Lorrie Goldstein thinks Dion's plan is far better than anything the Conservatives have offered. here is the link:
http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/lorrie_goldstein/2008/09/25/6870551-sun.html
Again, you misunderstand the Charter. What these proposed changes will do, if invoked, is create two different standards and this would be the basis for any challenge. It would be alleged that the changes were both discriminatory and arbitrary.
As for your claim of my alleged dishonesty, I won't even dignify that with a response.
[updated Sat Sep 27 21:10:13 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 21:10
larryl
Christine . I was wondereing how long it would take for you to figure out are resident expert is never wrong about anything.Just ask him. When he can't dispute the facts you present he resorts to name calling and insults. He can not deny that financial considerations were offered which is bribery but sticks to his assertion that you can't find an insurance company that will insure a dying man. If you join a group plan where no medical exam is necessary it would certainly be possible to get insurance. If the insurer does not dispute your claim you can collect on any insurance policy .The WTC was insured against terrorist attacks but no other building has ever got insurance for that.Go figure.
[updated Sat Sep 27 21:36:26 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 21:36
Poof. They give up. Congratulations, Christine and larryl.
[updated Sat Sep 27 21:51:09 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 21:51
Foxer
All you've done is proven that what i said was true.
To quote from your own article -
Mr. Harper hired three forensic sound experts to review the tape and added $1-million to his original lawsuit on the basis of their sworn affidavits that the recording had been altered.
Further - donna cadman has said the events did not take place when the author said they did;
A sworn affidavit submitted by Donna Cadman to the Ontario Superior Court of Justice repudiates author Tom Zytaruk’s account of his interview with Stephen Harper, then opposition leader.
So - as i said - a faked tape. Could you show me in there where it said the experts DIDN"T say it was faked?
The closest it comes is donna saying it sounded like she remembered back when the guy played it for her. But that was years ago, and she couldn't know if he'd altered the tape before she herd it or played the whole thing.
So - i was right and you were wrong. The tapes had been altered according to experts and the judge agreed to not allow dion to use it.
As to it being a 'ploy' - a ploy for what?
Harper faces no charges whatsoever. The tape says he knew there was financial considerations, which he's admitted to several times - they'd cover the cost of his campaign. Perfectly legal. Sensible thing to offer the guy.
The rcmp had already investigated and were quite specific to say there was NO evidence at all of any such thing.
So there's no chance (none - zero - ziltch) of harper facing any kind of 'bribery' charge. Your comment is ridiculous.
And again - how do you get a million dollar life insurance policy for a dying man?
I notice you failed to address that question - seeing as the whole 'bribe charge' hangs on that, could you explain how it's possible?
On to the green plan.
Perhaps YOU should read a little more about it.
Here's one article:
Cost of Dion's platform concerns analysts
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=c2f4e758-a023-4a89-b40c-406a0a1c35c5
My concern is that all these numbers in there are no longer accurate and I fear that they are optimistic on this point, because we know that GDP growth will be much slower than was forecast in February in 2008.
Then there's this one:
Liberals eye military budget to fund campaign pledges
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/09/24/kevin-libin-liberals-eye-military-budget-to-fund-campaign-pledges.aspx
McCallum first gives the official answer -- that it’ll cost “$15.5 billion dollars over five years”-- but added, “that's a little bit misleading,” without elaborating on exactly how Canadians were being be misled.
Now - that's from the mouth of an actual liberal.
Or how about this one from the very respectable tom brodbeck:
http://blog.canoe.ca/raisinghell?disp=bio
CARBON TAX IS A FRAUD
The one thing proponents of the Liberal's Green Shift plan cannot explain is how a carbon tax would actually persuade people to use less energy.
A carbon tax sounds good in theory. Some economists like it. The theory is when you attach a price to something, it puts downward pressure on demand. It's more expensive so people use less of it.
Trouble is, in practice, it doesn't always work so well.
What the Liberals are proposing is to add a tax on energy so consumers use less of it.
For example, on average, households would pay between $57 and $67 a year in carbon taxes on natural gas to heat their homes. Obviously, that's not going to change behaviour. Nobody is going to turn their heat down, switch technologies or spend $10,000 on new windows because of a $57-a-year tax.
There's often more fluctuation than that year-to-year in market prices. It would simply be a tax grab.
I have yet to hear any proponent of this plan explain to me how $57 a year would change behaviour. Or how 24 cents per 20 lb tank of propane would discourage us from having barbecues. That's why the public is not buying this plan.
There are quite a few others.
Now on to the charter.
There are not two standards at all. Explain to me how increasing the maximum penalty allowable under the young offenders act constitutes two standards?
And in what way would increasing the maximum be considered discriminatory? (all ciminal laws are arbitrary btw - that was kind of a silly thing to say. Arbitrary simply means 'decided by a judge' in legal terms.)
[updated Sat Sep 27 21:55:13 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 21:55
Foxer
So - to recap.
The tape has been shown to be doctored by several experts. So you were wrong to suggest otherwise and i was correct.
The Carbon tax and dion's plan does NOT contain any targets or goals - as i said.
The green plan and liberal budget are NOT properly costed, numbers used are out of date and ''optimistic'. A liberal is heard to say that elements of the plan 'are misleading'.
As to the charter - You have offered a case that shows that youth cannot be tried as adults without the crown showing reasons for it and somehow twisted that into suggesting Harper cannot make changes to the youth criminal justice system. Of course he can.
And frankly so far in this conversation dignity hasn't exactly been one of your strong suits.
[updated Sat Sep 27 21:55:26 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 21:55
larryl
The Bloc document claims that the 1963 decision to establish the Borden line favoured the development of refineries in Ontario, to the detriment of Quebec. It should be remembered that the Borden line was established to help create a domestic oil industry by establishing a market for Western Canadian crude oil. All refineries west of the Ottawa Valley were required to purchase crude oil from Western Canadian sources, at higher than international prices. Quebec, far from being discriminated against, was allowed to continue to import crude oil at the lower, international price, thus giving Montreal refineries a clear competitive advantage.
When the international price of oil surpassed the domestic price for the first time in 1970, concerns about the accessibility of international sources of oil developed. In response, a pipeline was extended between Sarnia and Montreal to ensure Quebec access to crude oil. The Borden line was abolished in 1973. Some Montreal oil refineries were closed down in the 1970s and 1980s, it is true, but not because of the Borden line; the same thing happened elsewhere, as a result of economic factors, especially the oil crisis, which significantly diminished demand.
[updated Sat Sep 27 23:15:39 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 23:15
Foxer
umm... did you mean to post that in another thread perchance?
[updated Sat Sep 27 23:20:00 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 23:20
larryl
No. Since the Borden line was established by the Diefenbaker government{a westerner} it should be obvious that the Alberta oil industry was funded by money from Ontario as far back as 1963. Your claim that the N.E.P .destroyed the oil industry has just lost all credibility since this proves the oil crisis and reduced demand led to the collapse. I broke my promise to ignore you until after the election because this was too good to pass up. I will go back to my plan as of now.
[updated Sat Sep 27 23:51:10 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 23:51
Foxer
Still thinking you may well be posting in the wrong spot there larryl - i think you have two windows open. You meant to put this in the other thread i think. Nobody's talking about the nep here.
[updated Sun Sep 28 00:07:29 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 00:07
MRM
Christine - On the issue of Cadman your logic is somewhat flawed and I am afraid it is you who show a naïveté regarding the law. Since the RCMP has already stated that there are no grounds for charges and both they and Elections Canada have closed the investigation what bribery charges would they be avoiding? The fact is that they do not need a good lawyer to win this suit. Any second year law student could win it and the Liberal legal council knows it. My guess is that sometime very soon after Oct 14th the Liberal legal staff will attempt to quietly get an out of court settlement.
It is you I am afraid that misunderstand both the Charter and Quebec law. There are already two different standards of law in Canada. Quebec law is based on the Napoleonic Legal Code and then there is the rest of Canada whose laws are based on the Magna Carta. The Charter recognizes the unique distinctiveness of both legal systems. You allege that a challenge could be made under the charter on the basis that it is discriminatory and therefore a violation of ones civil rights. Specifically you stated that:
“What these proposed changes will do, if invoked, is create two different standards and this would be the basis for any challenge. It would be alleged that the changes were both discriminatory and arbitrary.”
In fact the law recognizes under The Act of Quebec of 1774 which is carried into article 92(13) of the Canadian Constitution granting exclusive rights to the Provinces over "property and civil rights". While the other provinces apply the Common Law System, Quebec continues to apply the Civil Law System for "property and civil rights”.
So changing the YOA has nothing to do with the Charter and I doubt any court would even hear the case. Even if you could find someone foolish enough to bring it forward it would likely be ruled as frivolous and a waste of the courts time as it has no basis in law.
As for the Green Shift your comment “Even Lorrie Goldstein thinks Dion's plan is far better than anything the Conservatives have offered.” is meaningless. So what, who made Lorrie Goldstein a climate change expert or an economist. He is journalist and while he is entitled to his opinion as are we all, he knows no more about the subject that anyone else and therefore should not be touted as an expert.
[updated Sun Sep 28 01:03:30 EDT 2008]
28 Sep 01:03
1) So have you ever had a party leader announce his party finances are broke and that he can not vote against the government policy because he can't handle another campaign? (Anywhere?)
2) The voters understand if you want "earmarks" or projects to be sped up in your riding you need the purse strings opened and they are held by the people in power. Is that news to you?
3) Changing the age of consent reflecting the realization of the value system (morals) of sexual behaviour by this demographic and acknowledging violent crimes by individuals current penalties are not sufficient from a "populist" view.
In my opinion it reflects his partys' attunement to this reality on the ground. Do we "accept/believe" teens are participating in sexual activity at a younger age? (Yes, I do believe but dont like it)
Do we want teens who are committing violent crimes held accountable with "much harsher" penalties? (Yes) We may agree statistics show harsher penalities are ineffective vs rehabilitation but the general population does not always vote from the supported data. Voters are free to be engaged and swayed by non factual information and misleading data.
NDP/Liberals have been going negative with Harper for a very long time and were successful in stopping the last majority. Will it work again after two years of a centrist approach and no armies in our city streets?
I am not sure, negative campaigns lower the voter turnout for the "attacked" party. A big turnout would mean a big change in the current government so a normal or low turnout means little change. If everyone goes VERY negative in the last few weeks it would lower the turnout below 65% of eligible voters. (Is that a tactic being employed?)
In closing I don't support most NDP/Liberal policies at present, I have not attacked or demeaned either leader and presented either leader as evil or a crackpot.
Majere are you acting in a balanced rational manner extolling a fair debate or using this forum to vent your frustration of the current polls, the voting public and your personal bias against a person or a platform?
[updated Sat Sep 27 10:31:22 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 10:31
majere
Hello Informed1
I was just following the question as to what Dion has to do to stop the slide and make progression. Look at where my original post/reply is situated.
I have, in all my writings anywhere in my life have been only against the Conservatives.
cheers :) majere
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:15:09 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 12:15
than your views have no balance or opportunity for enlightenment if you can only support one side of a spectrum and not maintain an open mind.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:56:12 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:56
majere
Hi Informed1
I do look at Cons policies, analyze and find out that they do not help but hinder my freedom.
Actually I am more of a fiscally conservative, socialy liberal, and also believe in looking after the old and infirm. The Green platform is just a recession depression waiting to happen.
I cover all spectrums.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:10:11 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 14:10
Can you list 3 policies that are deal breakers to make you leave your current party and than 3 policies the Cons are doing correct/incorrect? Lets review them and debate if we have some common ground.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:16:56 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 14:16
majere
Informed1.
We both know it takes pages to go back and forth with statistics, psych situations, Rights, and Ideaology.
But without my lengthy explanation I will state that I would vote for the Cons if they - a. legalize cannabis as if it was tomatos for anyone over 18, b. do away with property taxes, and c. an extra 100 dollars per on cpp disability.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:51:42 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 14:51
I am open to legalizing several drugs from purely control/tax policy advantages.
Reduce income to organized crime by providing these products through Pharmacies with computerized systems to track usage.
Set up Multiple Red Light - Amerstdam Zones close to our borders to provide Americans with an alternatives to their leisure dollars.
I suspect we could pay off our national debt with 10 years from proceeds. ROFL.
Property taxes are the Provincial and Municipal Areas of responsibility. But one policy I support is raising income tax free to $ 20k (Green Policy).
My only reservation is the reality our largest trading partner would respond very punitively towards our policies and we cant ignore our trade relationship.
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:05:07 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 15:05
Foxer
Majere - interesting 3 answers (good question btw informed).
Dope i get - i'm not opposed to legalizing it (tho i don't know about the 'tomatoes' thing :) I think some basic controls would be appropriate, similar to the liquor industry). Not my thing, but it's not for me to decide for others what they should do.
CPP disability - ok, fair enough i'm sure you have a valid argument behind that showing why more funds are appropriate.
but property tax... that one really caught me off guard.
First off - just a reminder, that isn't a federal issue, it's a provincial issue, but setting that aside for a moment, why property taxes? Most people i've read have suggested that property and corporate taxes are the ONLY valid taxes, not the other way around. How did you come to that?
[updated Sat Sep 27 19:42:16 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 19:42
larryl
HC.You must be a transplanted easterner. Why can't more people see that if you are a center party you can go in either direction but when you are right wing you have only one way to go but are too set in your ways to venture away from what you believe. Liberals are better politicians or they really do have a divine right to govern.You are right about Martin but I believe he did his best to do to the Liberals what Mulroney did to his party. So far it seems he did a good job of ruining the Liberals but he took a little longer than Lyin Brain to accomplish his goal.Revenge is sweet.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:02:29 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:02
HC in AB
Not a tranplanted easterner, but I did spend a "sentence" of 13 years of my life in the GTA as a "refugee from the NEP". Born and raised in Alberta and in another 40 years or so I will die here at the age of 100, hopefully murdered by a very jealous young husband.
As I see it, the reason for the current Conservative success is that they have a fairly big tent and have taken over the centre as government, pushing the LPC to the left. Here in Canada, we tread a pretty narrow path from the moderate right to the moderate left, and the moderate right starts out where the Liberal Democrats are in the States.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:17:44 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:17
larryl
Lex. Your 13 years here were not wasted. You learned a few things . I spent 5 years out there and could have stayed after the bubble burst but chose to return home for family reasons. I have about the same time to reach the century mark but hopefully won't last any where near that long. Harper has learned that to win you run in the center and then govern on the right. I fear he will go too far right and his association with the National Citizens Coalition and the Calgary School is a hint of what is to come with a majority. Did you enjoy your time here since you stayed that long?
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:32:18 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:32
HC in AB
No fear, he's also a "pragmatic populist".
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:00:06 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:00
larryl
HC. Had to look up pragamtic populist. Pragmatic 1.[a] busy or active esp. in a meddlesome way [b]dogmatic ,opinionated .Populist. a member of a U.S. political party . Fits him to a tee. Which is exactly why I fear him. I don't want to become an American, do you?
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:43:28 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:43
HC in AB
Enjoy, my time, it was OK but I hated the climate, too hot and muggy in the summer and grey, chilly and damp in the winter. Couple of months in the spring and fall weren't bad. People were a little different but that's whole different discussion relative socialization due to and independent rural agricultural background etc. etc.
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:06:28 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:06
larryl
HC . Sorry I addressed that to Lex who I was talking to earlier.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:33:51 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:33
Lex Llewdor
Funny story about the NEP.
On Halloween 1982 (I was 7) my father took me out trick-or-treating. We lived in Lloydminster at the time, an oil town. And my Dad wore a Pierre Trudeau mask for Halloween.
At one house, a little old lady attacked him with a broom and hit him until he left her front step, so much did she hate Trudeau.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:38:07 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:38
ROFL, too bad you did not have that recorded as a video, could have been used in this campaign.
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:09:25 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 00:09
westerner (suspended)
Dion has been calling the Liberals "centrists" when they have moved well left of centre. He is so far left he thinks he is in the middle. How could a politican with his ideology possibly believe he is centrist?
[updated Fri Sep 26 21:01:28 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 21:01
Mr. Dion has a real image problem and I wonder why? He sure doesn't deserve it. He is more trustworthy and decent than Mr. Harper, so what gives.
Am I off-base or isn't the media letting us down? There's only two choices for PM here, Harper or Dion. Is the media properly reporting what these two say they'll do (policy platform) vs. what they are more likely to do?
All those polls. The horse race stuff. The media seems more interested in making the news than reporting it.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:50:33 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:50
dgbeaulne
I agree that Dion has an image problem. Politics being what it is, Dion and the Liberals have forgotten one of the rules of image management, "Define yourself or your opponents will define you". Maybe forgotten is not the right word, as the Liberals are not suffering from a lack of experienced strategists. They have no money, so I'd believe that they couldn't afford ads to define themselves or Dion.
Now, whether or not Dion and the Liberals deserve their image problem is another question. The Liberals are not innocent victims because they have jumped on new leaders of other parties and quickly defined them. Did Stockwell Day deserve his image problems? What about Preston Manning? He was an upstanding individual, yet the Liberals were ruthless with him. The Liberals perfected the art of "define your opponent", I find it repulsive that these same Liberals cry because they have been beaten at their own game.
As for the media rsharp, I agree with you 100%.
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:14:41 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 15:14
Money. Yes, a big factor. The Cons have it and the Libs don't. No money to counter Harper's 2.5 years of often cruel attack ads on Mr.Dion. He took it on the chin but, you know, he never lashed out (like the Repug candidate down south). He healed the fractious Martin/Chretien years and, to this day, he has kept his team together.
He has the best policy platform and is most likely to do what he says. And not do what he doesn't say.
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:26:39 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 15:26
Foxer
Actually - dion lashed out many many many times. He just didn't use tv ads to do it.
The cadman issue - he lashed out so much he's opened himself up to a lawsuit for his abusive comments.
There are several other examples.
And his party is pretty divided - we went thru this before - even as we speak there's backfighting as to who will be the next leader. They've already written him off.
As to him keeping his word - He campaigns on the green shift for 3 months, then one day he says the green shift is not a major plank in his platform, then the next day he's backtracking. He said last year carbon taxes were terrible, this year he proposes a carbon tax. He said last december that hte liberals would not abstain from any more votes, yet what happened all year? He said last year he would consider raising the gst, now he claims that he would never consider it.He said he might run a deficit, then the next day he guarantees he won't.
How exactly are you getting the idea he'll keep his word? Unless you mean keep it for less than 10 minutes.
[updated Sat Sep 27 19:48:16 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 19:48
I'm still having a hard time rationalizing the meltdown south and north of the border. US economy and the Liberal Brand.
Nik believes its up to Harper and his party to make a critical mistake, so barring any videos of Harper or his cabinet in an "American" Military outfit in the next few weeks can the NDP pick up the seats and break 30 seats? Really I remember Ed Broadbent and Jack is a pale shadow in comparison. (Personal Bias I know). Historically NDP have never broken low twenties in popular vote per cent: I think under Ed Broadbent.
Do all the other parties benefit from the Liberal collapse or does one party pick up the lionshare of Liberal votes?
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:21:29 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 00:21
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MRM
So Dion’s newest tactic is to whines about how unfair the Tories are treating him. I know that he and May have a lot in common but does he also think that Canadians are stupid? What is he hoping to get out of this strategy, the sympathy vote?
Canadians have watched him run around the country bad mouthing the economy and blaming it all on the Tories for three weeks now and when he is challenged on it he whine and says it is not fair. He makes irresponsible statements that have the potential to harm consumer confidence like:
Canada has the lowest GDP in the G7 – Note true, we have the highest;
Canada has the highest unemployment rate in the G7 – note true, second lowest;
That we had a net job loss of 400,000 jobs in the past year – not true, we had a gain of 80,000
He also seems to think that it is OK to call the PM a liar and slander his name with lies over the Cadman affair and other issues but anyone attacking him for being a week kneed wimp which his whining proves he actually is, is not being fair.
Let’s vote today so we do not have to listen to this suck any longer.
Hey larryl – I just read your post on the CTV website. Just a small piece of advice partner, if you are going call people idiots perhaps you should check your spelling and grammar otherwise you just risk looking like one yourself.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:32:43 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:32
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.