Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives at 39% nationally and maintaining their 15-point lead over the Liberals. The Liberals follow with 24%, the NDP with 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. In the province of Ontario, the Conservatives have pulled ahead of the Liberals, while in the West, the NDP moves into second place above the Liberals. On the question of who would make the country’s best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper leads with 40%, followed by Jack Layton at 19%. Stéphane Dion trails with 10% support, a new low for the Liberal Leader, followed by Elizabeth May at 5%, and Gilles Duceppe at 3%.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 24, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 39 (-1)
- Liberal Party 24 (-1)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (NC)
- Undecided 15% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 40% (NC)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 10% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 7% (-1)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 109 (-2)
- Jack Layton 54 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 30 (-8)
- Gilles Duceppe 14 (+2)
- Elizabeth May 13 (-1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Dion's leadership numbers in Western Canada are down to 5%. No wonder the Libera... more
skoblin (British Columbia) 26 Sep 14:13
The Nanos numbers are starting to converge with the Decima and EKOS numbers, who... more
Kelvin (British Columbia) 26 Sep 14:21
Looks like things are pretty much unchanged other than Dion and the Liberals dow... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 26 Sep 14:16
You're letting your optimism get the better of you, I think.... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 26 Sep 19:32
Funny story about the NEP. On Halloween 1982 (I was 7) my father took me out ... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 26 Sep 19:38
As I said in an earlier post I think Dion's main problem is his naivete. He is b... more
christine (Ontario) 26 Sep 19:53
Comments
skoblin
Dion's leadership numbers in Western Canada are down to 5%. No wonder the Liberals are tanking in the West. With Liberal support in this region at 16% now, only 1 in 3 Liberals in the West think their leader would make a good PM.Expect more Liberal slides in BC I guess.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:13:59 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:13
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Regina Beach Boy
Looks like things are pretty much unchanged other than Dion and the Liberals downslide, this maybe the total purging of the Liberal Party which is precisely what it needs to comeback, just like whats happening with the stock market, total capitulation.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:16:09 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:16
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Kelvin
The Nanos numbers are starting to converge with the Decima and EKOS numbers, who usually put the Greens higher and the Liberals lower. Because Nanos doesn't rotate choices in voter intention but leaves the question open-ended, it means that people who used to think of choosing Green only upon suggested are actually volunteering that choice, mostly at the expense of the Liberals.
Which means Dion's Green flank is now a serious threat. Everyone's taking votes from him.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:21:40 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:21
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
skoblin
Harris numbers now show the Greens falling as well, down in all regions - even BC. Not surprised. May has run a strangely inept campaign - even taking into consideration that Party's relative lack of campaign funds. Crossing Canada by train may have seemed like a good idea sitting in a coffee shop, but in practical terms it means most of each day's campaigning is spent sitting in a train car not interacting with voters or the media. It also means a good chunk of the campaign has been spent going through the Prairies where the Greens have no hope of a seat anyway. She should have spent almost all her time on the BC coast, southern Ontario and her own riding.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:39:17 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:39
Regina Beach Boy
I think May will have trouble at the debates, most people find her annoying and frustrating to listen to due to the speed of her talk, I believe the viewers will to.
On May staying in BC, I fully agree, she could have used this election to build a huge base in BC from which to expand to the rest of Canada. Not too mention she would also have guaranteed herself a seat in the house by picking a riding there.
[updated Fri Sep 26 15:05:53 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 15:05
skoblin
Latest numbers show that the Greens are falling out of contention. I can only imagine what may have been the result if she had been in the lower mainland and the island when the NDP was having their candidate problems and Liberal supporters were looking for a new home. I think they missed a golden opportunity to pick up a couple of seats.
[updated Fri Sep 26 15:10:02 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 15:10
christine
Yeah, the Greens will get no seats this election; I doubt even Wilson will be re-elected. Unless she can turn things around at the debates I beginning to think that the Greens may even get fewer votes this time than in 2006. I think the numbers she has are really soft right now, and are likely to go lower.
[updated Fri Sep 26 15:29:07 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 15:29
Lex Llewdor
With Wilson and his circumstances and Dion's foundering affecting that seat, Sunshine Coast is going Tory. It's usually a delicately balanced riding, but this hasn't been a campaign to maintain that balance.
[updated Fri Sep 26 15:39:56 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 15:39
christine
I agree with you about Wilson's problems (and certainly Dion's) but even so I think this could have been winnable for the Greens had they invested sufficient time and resources. Same for a couple of other BC and Ontario ridings. The Greens should have done what the NDP use to do in the early days: concentrate on those ridings where they might have a chance at winning.
[updated Fri Sep 26 15:52:26 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 15:52
Lex Llewdor
Oh, absolutely.
They're just not doing that. They're trying to present themselves as a national party, and they're not. No party can spring into relevance all across the country at once.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:19:36 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:19
skoblin
Beach boy....if you live in regina...how do things look in the Palliser riding?
[updated Fri Sep 26 15:12:45 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 15:12
Regina Beach Boy
The whole province will be blue other than Wascana although there is a growing feeling that the extreme discontent with the Liberal brand could turn out to make it a close one for Goodale, many are hoping for a defeat like Mclellan in Edmonton last election.
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:05:28 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:05
Wow that would be a shock to have no Liberals east of Ontario. What are the odds?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:14:52 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:14
Lex Llewdor
Slim, I think.
The Liberals should hold Vancouver South, at the very least, and I can't see them losing all their Winnipeg seats (despite yesterday).
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:28:01 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:28
christine
Although things don't look that great for the Liberals in west of Ontario they will get some seats. According to regional poll analysis on the "Vote for Environment web site" (http://www.voteforenvironment.ca/) both Yukon and Nunavut are safe Liberal seats. And, as I mentioned in an earlier post, Goodale's Wascana, SK seat is safe. Also safe is Tina Keeper's seat in Churchill, MB; so, probably, is Anita Neville's seat in Winnipeg South Centre. However, Raymond Simard is barely ahead of the Conservative challenger in St Boniface and may lose his seat; it is also a very tight race in Winnipeg South.
Alberta, of course, is a write-off for Liberals, but things aren't necessarily that bad in BC.
Here are the ridings in play:
1) Burnaby-Douglas: Apparently a close fight between incumbent NDP Bill Siksay and Liberal Challenger Bill Cunningham
2) Esquilmalt-Jaun-de-Fuca: Liberal incumbent Keith Martin
3) Newton-North Delta: Liberal incumbent Sukh Dhaliwal
4) North Vancouver: Liberal incumbent Dan Bell
5) Richmond: Liberal incumbent Raymond Chan
6) Saanich-Gulf Islands: While nothing is certain in politics this may be an easy win for Briony Penn of the Liberals now that the NDP candidate has dropped from the race. (Currently held by Gary Lunn of the Conservatives.)
7) Vancouver Centre: Liberal incumbent Hedy Fry should hold on to this riding.
8) Vancouver Quadra: Won by Joyce Murray in a close by-election race, is, apparently, an even closer race now.
9) Vancouver South: Liberal incumbent Ujjal Dosanjh should hold on to this riding.
10) West Vancouver Sunshine Coast: This is Blair Wilson's riding which he won as a Liberal. I don't think he has much hope to win it as a Green; it may go back to the Liberals.
So, even the most optimistic analysis would give the Liberals no more than 18 seats west of Ontario. However they will get at least 8 and (realistically) maybe as many as a dozen.
[updated Sat Sep 27 01:22:24 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 01:22
christine
Ooops! I forgot to mention Vancouver-Kingsway, David Emerson's old riding. Traditionally a safe liberal seat but may well go NDP this time.
[updated Sat Sep 27 10:04:52 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 10:04
christine
I think Goodale should be safe. The "Vote for the Environment" web site has him well out in front of the other candidates, as of Sept 24.
Here's the link:
http://www.voteforenvironment.ca/node/213
[updated Fri Sep 26 23:42:58 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 23:42
The Green party is a protest Vote. I don't believe Greens will secure a single seat.
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:12:17 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:12
skoblin
Ipsos-Reid is out with new numbers as well....looks like Nik is dead on.
CPC 39
LPC 23
NDP 18
Green 11
Conservative no change
Liberals -4
NDP +3
Greens +2
[updated Fri Sep 26 18:35:05 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 18:35
kschell
So, the CPC lead holds, and they take the lead in Ontario.
I can't see this getting any better for the Liberals.
It was interesting to see the contrast in the short clips of each of the party leaders on the news last night. Dion appeared to be ranting, barely able to get a sentence out he is so enraged about Harper's alleged mismanagement of the economy - a laugher considering the spending promises Dion has made. Then Harper calmly discussing the fact that the economic situation in the US is going to affect us in some way, that things will not be great, but also not that bad, as long as we don't do anything stupid (read: carbon tax).
If their respective demeanor's carry on through the debate, then this election is over, and we could even be looking at an NDP opposition.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:22:56 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:22
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
This is incredible. Down for, what, the 5th day in a row?
Interesting how the 'who would make best pm' question so closely mirrors the results of the parties - except the libs. Dion rates 10 percent - i have to wonder if the liberals numbers will keep falling until they are closer to that mark.
The old 'core liberal' support seems to be fading - as more leave, more feel it's ok to leave.
About 12 days to the debates - they have to level out SOMETIME before then, a lot of people will make their decisions based on the debates i'm sure. They might slide after that again, but surely they can't go much lower than this right now can they?
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:23:15 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:23
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Hi Nik;
I know all the party candidates have big hearts and want what's best for Canada. Given a chance I'm sure they would try their best. To get elected I suspect some would make promises beyond their means.
When I lay all the platforms on the table; there is no contest as to which party can see their platforms through.
I wonder what percentage of Canadians actually understand the platforms or how many vote their for traditional parties.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:37:02 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:37
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
Mr. Dion's leadership numbers continue to fall. This is not surprising after the press conference on TV this morning. It was in Gerard Kennedy's riding and I assume it was at a Seniors home. There were few in attendance. When it came to questions Dion handled himself very badly. To put it kindly he looked like an amateur. When asked about the anti semetic remarks of his Wpg. candidate he simply said he was dealing with the Canadian Jewish Congress. How lame! When pressed some of his supporters tried to stop the media from asking questions.
In the same press conference a reporter asked a question and Kennedy had to repeat it to Dion in French. They say he has a hearing problem. Coupled with the fact he is colour blind what other physical ailments is he going to blame for his poor showing.
It is becoming more clear everyday that Dion is not qualified to be prime minister of Canada. His over the top rhetoric is not helping him and his failure to convince Canadians that his platform is sound is going to see the Liberals experience an unprecedented defeat in this election.
Jack Layton and his socialist rag tag bunch could become the official opposition.
Dion will go down in history as the worst leader the Liberal party has ever had with Paul Martin right behind him. Who would have thought?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:24:39 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:24
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
What strategy can Dion employ at this point to slow down the negative trend line of his party? I'm not confident in his ability to communicate in English in person or on TV and see it as another set back for his party?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:28:28 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:28
91 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
I'm still having a hard time rationalizing the meltdown south and north of the border. US economy and the Liberal Brand.
Nik believes its up to Harper and his party to make a critical mistake, so barring any videos of Harper or his cabinet in an "American" Military outfit in the next few weeks can the NDP pick up the seats and break 30 seats? Really I remember Ed Broadbent and Jack is a pale shadow in comparison. (Personal Bias I know). Historically NDP have never broken low twenties in popular vote per cent: I think under Ed Broadbent.
Do all the other parties benefit from the Liberal collapse or does one party pick up the lionshare of Liberal votes?
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:21:29 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 00:21
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MRM
So Dion’s newest tactic is to whines about how unfair the Tories are treating him. I know that he and May have a lot in common but does he also think that Canadians are stupid? What is he hoping to get out of this strategy, the sympathy vote?
Canadians have watched him run around the country bad mouthing the economy and blaming it all on the Tories for three weeks now and when he is challenged on it he whine and says it is not fair. He makes irresponsible statements that have the potential to harm consumer confidence like:
Canada has the lowest GDP in the G7 – Note true, we have the highest;
Canada has the highest unemployment rate in the G7 – note true, second lowest;
That we had a net job loss of 400,000 jobs in the past year – not true, we had a gain of 80,000
He also seems to think that it is OK to call the PM a liar and slander his name with lies over the Cadman affair and other issues but anyone attacking him for being a week kneed wimp which his whining proves he actually is, is not being fair.
Let’s vote today so we do not have to listen to this suck any longer.
Hey larryl – I just read your post on the CTV website. Just a small piece of advice partner, if you are going call people idiots perhaps you should check your spelling and grammar otherwise you just risk looking like one yourself.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:32:43 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:32
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.