Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives at 39% nationally and maintaining their 15-point lead over the Liberals. The Liberals follow with 24%, the NDP with 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. In the province of Ontario, the Conservatives have pulled ahead of the Liberals, while in the West, the NDP moves into second place above the Liberals. On the question of who would make the country’s best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper leads with 40%, followed by Jack Layton at 19%. Stéphane Dion trails with 10% support, a new low for the Liberal Leader, followed by Elizabeth May at 5%, and Gilles Duceppe at 3%.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 24, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 39 (-1)
- Liberal Party 24 (-1)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (NC)
- Undecided 15% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 40% (NC)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 10% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 7% (-1)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 109 (-2)
- Jack Layton 54 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 30 (-8)
- Gilles Duceppe 14 (+2)
- Elizabeth May 13 (-1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Dion's leadership numbers in Western Canada are down to 5%. No wonder the Libera... more
skoblin (British Columbia) 26 Sep 14:13
The Nanos numbers are starting to converge with the Decima and EKOS numbers, who... more
Kelvin (British Columbia) 26 Sep 14:21
Looks like things are pretty much unchanged other than Dion and the Liberals dow... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 26 Sep 14:16
You're letting your optimism get the better of you, I think.... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 26 Sep 19:32
Funny story about the NEP. On Halloween 1982 (I was 7) my father took me out ... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 26 Sep 19:38
As I said in an earlier post I think Dion's main problem is his naivete. He is b... more
christine (Ontario) 26 Sep 19:53
Comments
skoblin
Dion's leadership numbers in Western Canada are down to 5%. No wonder the Liberals are tanking in the West. With Liberal support in this region at 16% now, only 1 in 3 Liberals in the West think their leader would make a good PM.Expect more Liberal slides in BC I guess.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:13:59 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:13
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Regina Beach Boy
Looks like things are pretty much unchanged other than Dion and the Liberals downslide, this maybe the total purging of the Liberal Party which is precisely what it needs to comeback, just like whats happening with the stock market, total capitulation.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:16:09 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:16
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Even if they were to lose big as some polls suggest how many seats do you think from 95 seats do they fall? My estimate gives them around 84. They will have more seats than the NDP or the Bloc making them the official opposition with crippling finances and a severly wounded leader. (Harper took a page out of Chretien's Book apparently)
I'm not confident in NDP gaining seats vs growing in popular support by 2% to 19%. The Gen-Y and Gen-X dont vote generally. I believe baby boomers make up the largest % of voters.
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:09:43 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:09
Regina Beach Boy
I'm not saying the Liberals are in capitulation mode yet, but if the current trend continues and the Libs and Dips move into the debates tied, look out below because I believe the Libs are going to fall apart post debate.
Post debate even the Liberals that are bieng recorded as committed in these polls as above will stay home on voting day in frustration, if this was to happen, we will see an NDP opposition and the Liberal party looking like Hiroshima.
This will cause the total purge of the Liberal party and the ensuiing rebirth of a younger, back to the center( maybe even a barely noticable lean to the right), less Toronto based and a much stronger Liberal brand that may recapture thier "Glory Days"
Just one mans opinion
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:39:32 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:39
Foxer
Well it'll definately result in a rebirth - i don't know if they'll move back to the center yet or not.
Hating the 'right wing' has become almost a religion for liberals. So much so that many are going to resist any movement in that direction. They could move that way fiscally, but not any other way.
The other problem is harper is settling into the center nicely and will likely be pretty entrenched by the time the libs get another crack at bat. So - It's fighting the other guy on his own turf.
I think they need to go in another direction altogether. Try to get rid of the whole left/right thing and become a party of 'visons' and plans. Do you think obama is winning because he's a democrat? No - he's winning because people believe in his vision and his ability to make it happen. That's the new 'left/right/center" of the future - the ability to paint a vision that spans political spectrums.
Not just a party of the issues - but a party that offers complete packages to deal with ALL the issues as a united and effective plan people can believe in.
And they are going to have to look at if they intend on remaining a central authority party or if they'll give more freedoms to the provinces. The whole central authority thing plays very poorly in the qwest vote - and that's now more than half the votes in canada. Doesn't really swing as many votes as it used to in the rest of canada either.
We'll see if they get it right - i somehow doubt it, not yet. I think it'll take one more election of them wandering the wilderness before they get to where they need to be. It's hard to let go of the left wing mantra they've developed. We'll see if they're willing to make that sacrifice and do what needs to be done.
personally - i think they'll pick rae next time and stay to the left and go back to attack ads and negative campaigns. THEN they'll get smashed again and wind up reinventing themselves.
Took the pc and alliance more than one vote to realize they needed to change. It'll probably take the libs more than one too.
[updated Fri Sep 26 17:27:52 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 17:27
Regina Beach Boy
Hey Foxer,
If they stay too the left muddled in with the greens and NDP, they are doomed, remember the Liberals have been very competant at coddling to the left but in reality governing to the right of this.
The only reason Harper owns the center now is because the Libs gave it to him by supremely screwing up by allowing Dion in on a freak storm by ignoring the fact he was a real left of center character. They won't make that same mistake again, they all collectively know now that with Iggy in they would not have left the center up for grabs.
I think you need a George Bush in order to have an Obama type character wowing the nation, A big chunk of Americans are DESPARATE for change.
Less Toronto based is exactly what I meant about bieng more moderate, they will have to be less centralist in order to repair ample support in both Quebec and Western Canada to be formadible again. Thats assuming
You might be right about it taking a little longer to realize what needs to be done based on thier natural arrogance and sense of believing they are the natural governing party for the country, either way Canada is evolving and transforming and the parties ignoring that do so at thier peril.
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:03:45 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 20:03
Foxer
Change is just one form of 'vision'.
Canadians have always responded well to a complete plan - a leader who paints a picture for them and they can see it clearly in their minds and think it's better than what they've got now.
It's too late for the Liberals to try to regain the center, especially if harper gets a majority. He'll hold it, and then the libs just become a 'me too' offering, and that's hard if you're not the incumbent.
We'll see. I don't see it happening fast.
[updated Fri Sep 26 21:14:40 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 21:14
Regina Beach Boy
How fast it happens is dependant on who the next leader of the Liberal Party is, time will tell all.
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:39:39 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 12:39
Kelvin
The Nanos numbers are starting to converge with the Decima and EKOS numbers, who usually put the Greens higher and the Liberals lower. Because Nanos doesn't rotate choices in voter intention but leaves the question open-ended, it means that people who used to think of choosing Green only upon suggested are actually volunteering that choice, mostly at the expense of the Liberals.
Which means Dion's Green flank is now a serious threat. Everyone's taking votes from him.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:21:40 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:21
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kschell
So, the CPC lead holds, and they take the lead in Ontario.
I can't see this getting any better for the Liberals.
It was interesting to see the contrast in the short clips of each of the party leaders on the news last night. Dion appeared to be ranting, barely able to get a sentence out he is so enraged about Harper's alleged mismanagement of the economy - a laugher considering the spending promises Dion has made. Then Harper calmly discussing the fact that the economic situation in the US is going to affect us in some way, that things will not be great, but also not that bad, as long as we don't do anything stupid (read: carbon tax).
If their respective demeanor's carry on through the debate, then this election is over, and we could even be looking at an NDP opposition.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:22:56 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:22
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Foxer
This is incredible. Down for, what, the 5th day in a row?
Interesting how the 'who would make best pm' question so closely mirrors the results of the parties - except the libs. Dion rates 10 percent - i have to wonder if the liberals numbers will keep falling until they are closer to that mark.
The old 'core liberal' support seems to be fading - as more leave, more feel it's ok to leave.
About 12 days to the debates - they have to level out SOMETIME before then, a lot of people will make their decisions based on the debates i'm sure. They might slide after that again, but surely they can't go much lower than this right now can they?
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:23:15 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:23
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Hi Nik;
I know all the party candidates have big hearts and want what's best for Canada. Given a chance I'm sure they would try their best. To get elected I suspect some would make promises beyond their means.
When I lay all the platforms on the table; there is no contest as to which party can see their platforms through.
I wonder what percentage of Canadians actually understand the platforms or how many vote their for traditional parties.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:37:02 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:37
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hollinm
Mr. Dion's leadership numbers continue to fall. This is not surprising after the press conference on TV this morning. It was in Gerard Kennedy's riding and I assume it was at a Seniors home. There were few in attendance. When it came to questions Dion handled himself very badly. To put it kindly he looked like an amateur. When asked about the anti semetic remarks of his Wpg. candidate he simply said he was dealing with the Canadian Jewish Congress. How lame! When pressed some of his supporters tried to stop the media from asking questions.
In the same press conference a reporter asked a question and Kennedy had to repeat it to Dion in French. They say he has a hearing problem. Coupled with the fact he is colour blind what other physical ailments is he going to blame for his poor showing.
It is becoming more clear everyday that Dion is not qualified to be prime minister of Canada. His over the top rhetoric is not helping him and his failure to convince Canadians that his platform is sound is going to see the Liberals experience an unprecedented defeat in this election.
Jack Layton and his socialist rag tag bunch could become the official opposition.
Dion will go down in history as the worst leader the Liberal party has ever had with Paul Martin right behind him. Who would have thought?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:24:39 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:24
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What strategy can Dion employ at this point to slow down the negative trend line of his party? I'm not confident in his ability to communicate in English in person or on TV and see it as another set back for his party?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:28:28 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:28
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I'm still having a hard time rationalizing the meltdown south and north of the border. US economy and the Liberal Brand.
Nik believes its up to Harper and his party to make a critical mistake, so barring any videos of Harper or his cabinet in an "American" Military outfit in the next few weeks can the NDP pick up the seats and break 30 seats? Really I remember Ed Broadbent and Jack is a pale shadow in comparison. (Personal Bias I know). Historically NDP have never broken low twenties in popular vote per cent: I think under Ed Broadbent.
Do all the other parties benefit from the Liberal collapse or does one party pick up the lionshare of Liberal votes?
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:21:29 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 00:21
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MRM
So Dion’s newest tactic is to whines about how unfair the Tories are treating him. I know that he and May have a lot in common but does he also think that Canadians are stupid? What is he hoping to get out of this strategy, the sympathy vote?
Canadians have watched him run around the country bad mouthing the economy and blaming it all on the Tories for three weeks now and when he is challenged on it he whine and says it is not fair. He makes irresponsible statements that have the potential to harm consumer confidence like:
Canada has the lowest GDP in the G7 – Note true, we have the highest;
Canada has the highest unemployment rate in the G7 – note true, second lowest;
That we had a net job loss of 400,000 jobs in the past year – not true, we had a gain of 80,000
He also seems to think that it is OK to call the PM a liar and slander his name with lies over the Cadman affair and other issues but anyone attacking him for being a week kneed wimp which his whining proves he actually is, is not being fair.
Let’s vote today so we do not have to listen to this suck any longer.
Hey larryl – I just read your post on the CTV website. Just a small piece of advice partner, if you are going call people idiots perhaps you should check your spelling and grammar otherwise you just risk looking like one yourself.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:32:43 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:32
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