Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives at 39% nationally and maintaining their 15-point lead over the Liberals. The Liberals follow with 24%, the NDP with 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. In the province of Ontario, the Conservatives have pulled ahead of the Liberals, while in the West, the NDP moves into second place above the Liberals. On the question of who would make the country’s best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper leads with 40%, followed by Jack Layton at 19%. Stéphane Dion trails with 10% support, a new low for the Liberal Leader, followed by Elizabeth May at 5%, and Gilles Duceppe at 3%.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 24, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 39 (-1)
- Liberal Party 24 (-1)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (NC)
- Undecided 15% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 40% (NC)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 10% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 7% (-1)
- Unsure 17% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 109 (-2)
- Jack Layton 54 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 30 (-8)
- Gilles Duceppe 14 (+2)
- Elizabeth May 13 (-1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Dion's leadership numbers in Western Canada are down to 5%. No wonder the Libera... more
skoblin (British Columbia) 26 Sep 14:13
The Nanos numbers are starting to converge with the Decima and EKOS numbers, who... more
Kelvin (British Columbia) 26 Sep 14:21
Looks like things are pretty much unchanged other than Dion and the Liberals dow... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 26 Sep 14:16
You're letting your optimism get the better of you, I think.... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 26 Sep 19:32
Funny story about the NEP. On Halloween 1982 (I was 7) my father took me out ... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 26 Sep 19:38
As I said in an earlier post I think Dion's main problem is his naivete. He is b... more
christine (Ontario) 26 Sep 19:53
Comments
skoblin
Dion's leadership numbers in Western Canada are down to 5%. No wonder the Liberals are tanking in the West. With Liberal support in this region at 16% now, only 1 in 3 Liberals in the West think their leader would make a good PM.Expect more Liberal slides in BC I guess.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:13:59 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:13
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
The west is going tory, that sure seems to be the case. This has happened before of course - but this time the west has enough seats to make that pretty devastating for dion.
Word is ontario isn't that far behind - even liberal 'strongholds' are finding themselves fighting hard.
I'm a little surprised that layton isn't picking up more - he seems stuck at about 19 for now. For the libs to truly collapse that'll have to change - he'll have to go up sooner or later. But he's still within about 5 points of the libs. If the libs start to bleed to the ndp the ndp will overtake them very quickly.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:27:09 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:27
skoblin
General failure of the non-CPC vote coalescing around any party. Quebec seems to becoming a write off for all the federalist parties now with the bloc up as much as it is. Meanwhile it seems as the NDP moves up in the West, it falls in Atlantic Canada. If Dion's poor performance has not caused NDP support to crack the very low 20s, I wonder if it ever will. Like I mentioned before, there seems to be a core Liberal support that will stick with the party no matter what.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:43:00 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:43
skoblin
Replying to my own comment. Looking at various poll numbers, it looks like in BC at least, there does seem to be some concentrating of the anti-CPC vote, with the NDP finally beating out both the Libs and the Greens and both parties bleeding support to the dippers. Perhaps the concentrating of the anti-CPC vote will take place on a regional level, not nationally behind 1 party.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:46:14 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:46
Foxer
I'm not sure the bloc support is all that firm.
And realistically i expect that if there is a general coalescing of support behind one party on the left, it'll happen after the debates. That's where layton and dion will make their appeal for everyone to get behind them - and seeing as the libs have already tried it and it's not taking i'm thinking that the ndp has the edge.
The libs can't bleed out much more nationally unless they start bleeding to one party. The edges have been chipped off - if what's left starts to crumble it will need somewhere to go.
The libs are going to run into another problem pretty quick - severe voter apathy from their supporters. CPC supporters are eager for a majority. NDP supporters are eager to form opposition for the first time and maybe stop harper. Liberal supporters are eager for a new leader already. Which voters are more likely to turn out?
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:53:04 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:53
skoblin
That is something that I can agree with...Liberal supporters not bothering to vote. How much of an impact this will have and who will it benefit will be difficult to figure out. Pretty much have to go riding by riding/region by region. Obviously a lot of close Liberal ridings in rural and suburban Ontario would go CPC if Liberals became vote-apathetic. Same story in PEI and Nfld, despite the ABC movement there. In Manitoba, perhaps Churchill and a Winnipeg riding NDP. In BC....tough...Vancouver ridings NDP, some rural ridings PC. Quebec....three parties chewing on the carcass.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:58:37 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:58
Foxer
Probably pretty accurate - we'll know more when we see what the polls say as we get closer after the debates. If the libs tank completely, it'll be a severe problem for them. Kim Campbell for example was polling around 18 percent, but only got out about 16 percent as recall because people figured why bother. A drop in 2 percent on voting day due to apathy would make a lot of difference in some key ridings.
[updated Fri Sep 26 15:04:47 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 15:04
Lex Llewdor
The Tory attack ads could be party respnsible for that. They've been airing constantly since before the election was ever called.
People say attack ads don't work, and in some respects they don't. Attack ads almost never encourage anyone to vote for you. What they do - and what they're supposed to do - is drive down the voter turnout of their target. So, in attacking Dion, the Conservatives are encouraging Liberal voters to stay home (though some of them will certainly vote NDP or Green instead).
[updated Fri Sep 26 15:17:29 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 15:17
What is the television viewing audience numbers? My understanding is over the last decade the market has shrunk making TV advertising less effective. Are they using niche targeting (specialty channels?) I see some internet Ads by the liberals?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:01:08 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:01
Lex Llewdor
The CPC has been blanketing BC's television broadcasts with ads. They're taking full advantage of their financial position (they have money, the Liberals don't).
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:17:36 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 19:17
Regina Beach Boy
Looks like things are pretty much unchanged other than Dion and the Liberals downslide, this maybe the total purging of the Liberal Party which is precisely what it needs to comeback, just like whats happening with the stock market, total capitulation.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:16:09 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:16
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Kelvin
The Nanos numbers are starting to converge with the Decima and EKOS numbers, who usually put the Greens higher and the Liberals lower. Because Nanos doesn't rotate choices in voter intention but leaves the question open-ended, it means that people who used to think of choosing Green only upon suggested are actually volunteering that choice, mostly at the expense of the Liberals.
Which means Dion's Green flank is now a serious threat. Everyone's taking votes from him.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:21:40 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:21
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kschell
So, the CPC lead holds, and they take the lead in Ontario.
I can't see this getting any better for the Liberals.
It was interesting to see the contrast in the short clips of each of the party leaders on the news last night. Dion appeared to be ranting, barely able to get a sentence out he is so enraged about Harper's alleged mismanagement of the economy - a laugher considering the spending promises Dion has made. Then Harper calmly discussing the fact that the economic situation in the US is going to affect us in some way, that things will not be great, but also not that bad, as long as we don't do anything stupid (read: carbon tax).
If their respective demeanor's carry on through the debate, then this election is over, and we could even be looking at an NDP opposition.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:22:56 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:22
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
This is incredible. Down for, what, the 5th day in a row?
Interesting how the 'who would make best pm' question so closely mirrors the results of the parties - except the libs. Dion rates 10 percent - i have to wonder if the liberals numbers will keep falling until they are closer to that mark.
The old 'core liberal' support seems to be fading - as more leave, more feel it's ok to leave.
About 12 days to the debates - they have to level out SOMETIME before then, a lot of people will make their decisions based on the debates i'm sure. They might slide after that again, but surely they can't go much lower than this right now can they?
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:23:15 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:23
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Hi Nik;
I know all the party candidates have big hearts and want what's best for Canada. Given a chance I'm sure they would try their best. To get elected I suspect some would make promises beyond their means.
When I lay all the platforms on the table; there is no contest as to which party can see their platforms through.
I wonder what percentage of Canadians actually understand the platforms or how many vote their for traditional parties.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:37:02 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 14:37
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hollinm
Mr. Dion's leadership numbers continue to fall. This is not surprising after the press conference on TV this morning. It was in Gerard Kennedy's riding and I assume it was at a Seniors home. There were few in attendance. When it came to questions Dion handled himself very badly. To put it kindly he looked like an amateur. When asked about the anti semetic remarks of his Wpg. candidate he simply said he was dealing with the Canadian Jewish Congress. How lame! When pressed some of his supporters tried to stop the media from asking questions.
In the same press conference a reporter asked a question and Kennedy had to repeat it to Dion in French. They say he has a hearing problem. Coupled with the fact he is colour blind what other physical ailments is he going to blame for his poor showing.
It is becoming more clear everyday that Dion is not qualified to be prime minister of Canada. His over the top rhetoric is not helping him and his failure to convince Canadians that his platform is sound is going to see the Liberals experience an unprecedented defeat in this election.
Jack Layton and his socialist rag tag bunch could become the official opposition.
Dion will go down in history as the worst leader the Liberal party has ever had with Paul Martin right behind him. Who would have thought?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:24:39 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:24
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What strategy can Dion employ at this point to slow down the negative trend line of his party? I'm not confident in his ability to communicate in English in person or on TV and see it as another set back for his party?
[updated Fri Sep 26 16:28:28 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 16:28
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I'm still having a hard time rationalizing the meltdown south and north of the border. US economy and the Liberal Brand.
Nik believes its up to Harper and his party to make a critical mistake, so barring any videos of Harper or his cabinet in an "American" Military outfit in the next few weeks can the NDP pick up the seats and break 30 seats? Really I remember Ed Broadbent and Jack is a pale shadow in comparison. (Personal Bias I know). Historically NDP have never broken low twenties in popular vote per cent: I think under Ed Broadbent.
Do all the other parties benefit from the Liberal collapse or does one party pick up the lionshare of Liberal votes?
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:21:29 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 00:21
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MRM
So Dion’s newest tactic is to whines about how unfair the Tories are treating him. I know that he and May have a lot in common but does he also think that Canadians are stupid? What is he hoping to get out of this strategy, the sympathy vote?
Canadians have watched him run around the country bad mouthing the economy and blaming it all on the Tories for three weeks now and when he is challenged on it he whine and says it is not fair. He makes irresponsible statements that have the potential to harm consumer confidence like:
Canada has the lowest GDP in the G7 – Note true, we have the highest;
Canada has the highest unemployment rate in the G7 – note true, second lowest;
That we had a net job loss of 400,000 jobs in the past year – not true, we had a gain of 80,000
He also seems to think that it is OK to call the PM a liar and slander his name with lies over the Cadman affair and other issues but anyone attacking him for being a week kneed wimp which his whining proves he actually is, is not being fair.
Let’s vote today so we do not have to listen to this suck any longer.
Hey larryl – I just read your post on the CTV website. Just a small piece of advice partner, if you are going call people idiots perhaps you should check your spelling and grammar otherwise you just risk looking like one yourself.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:32:43 EDT 2008]
27 Sep 13:32
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