Post your questions for Nik…
Tonight, Nik will be on PrimeTime Politics with Peter Van Dusen at 8 pm ET / 5 pm PT for his weekly “Nik on the Numbers” feature. If you have any questions regarding our tracking or polling in general, you can post them on the blog, Nik will be answering your questions live on the air.
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives hitting the 40% mark for national support, a significant lead for the Tories over the Liberals. With the Liberals dropping to 25%, the 15 point difference between the two parties becomes the widest margin seen since election tracking began. The NDP follow at 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. CPAC-Nanos’ second set of weekly regional breakdown numbers show the Conservatives as the frontrunners in Northern and Eastern Ontario, the Prairies, Alberta and the lower mainland in British Columbia. The Bloc Québécois leads in Quebec support, but is statistically tied with the Liberals and NDP in Montreal. In the Atlantic provinces and Toronto, the Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked, and in British Columbia (excluding the lower mainland) the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are statistically tied.
Every Thursday, Nanos will release weekly regional numbers to see how party support fares at the provincial and regional levels (based on a five day track). The ten regions are Atlantic Canada, Montreal, the Rest of Quebec, Toronto and the GTA, South Western Ontario, Northern and Eastern Ontarion, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC Lower Mainland and the Rest of BC. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 23, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 40 (+3)
- Liberal Party 25 (-1)
- NDP 19 (-2)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (+1)
- Undecided 15% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 40% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 17% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 11% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 8% (-1)
- Unsure 17% (+1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 111 (+3)
- Jack Layton 51 (+4)
- Stephane Dion 38 (+6)
- Elizabeth May 14 (-4)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (-7)
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Highest Rated Comments
Hill & Knowlton's seat projection, based on these numbers: CPC: 156 LPC: 63 ... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 25 Sep 14:13
Nik's numbers for Montreal Bloc 32 NDP 27 Liberal 23 CPC 13 Gre... more
skoblin (British Columbia) 25 Sep 14:09
OK, this is getting loopy. When are these numbers going to settle down into a s... more
Peter3 (Ontario) 25 Sep 14:13
Who ever agrees with everything a politician says? I'm a libertarian - I don'... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 25 Sep 19:29
We do in fact have a Charter of Rights and Freedoms in this country that protect... more
gfthompsonjr (New Brunswick) 25 Sep 19:43
Any one interested can see Ton Flanagan on TVO right now. ... more
larryl (Ontario) 25 Sep 20:17
Comments
Leofff
Wham!! I was waiting for that Liberal friendly rogue poll to fall off today. This is a disaster for the Liberals.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:05:14 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:05
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
skoblin
Not good news for the NDP as well...at least nationally, although a large portion of the NDP drop off seems to be in Atlantic Canada and Quebec - both of which are extremely volatile right now. I think the Tory 40 ranking is also a rogue poll, but we will see tomorrow.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:13:12 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:13
Foxer
There's also the margin of error. 19's not so bad if it's your low.
But i think the ndp's chances are going to be based on how they do in the debate. I suspect he'll attack dion and attempt to rally the 'progressive' vote around the ndp, and if he does that he could see big gains the week after.
The libs appear on the verge of a collapse.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:23:32 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:23
skoblin
I agree. Layton should focus on Dion and let Duceppe savage Harper. The interesting part will be watching Layton and Duceppe tangle. Attacking Dion will be easy since the carbon tax is a no sell and Quebeckers in general don't like Dion. Harper has torpedoed his own party's chances with the arts funding comments and the comments regarding teenagers being tossed into prisons. Neither goes over well in Quebec. So between Layton and Duceppe it should be interesting, since they seem to agree on most issues.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:30:49 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:30
Lex Llewdor
Last I hear him use it, Layton's French wasn't great. He'll have to cripple Dion in the English debate so he was focus on Duceppe (and Harper) in the French debate. If he can stay very focussed his language won't trouble him as much.
If Layton manages that, say hello to your new leader of the opposition.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:36:28 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:36
skoblin
I think Layton will avoid tangling with Duceppe in the French debate. He has little to gain in being shot down by Duceppe and much to lose. I think Foxer is right, Layton will have to go after Dion and pry away some of the soft federalist vote. This is where his greatest gains now will be. Agreeing with Duceppe would be a good strategic move in trying to court Bloc supporters who are concerned about the Bloc's lack of effectiveness in Parliament, which appears to be that party's biggest weakness.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:44:57 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:44
Foxer
That's what i'm thinking skoblin. Layton's best bet is to suck away folks who used to be bloc but aren't really as engaged because the seperatist issue isn't hot any more.
He can portray himself as everything the bloc is - but with an actual chance of forming gov't someday, and forming opposition now.
Harper will likely hammer on the fact that the bloc will always go back to quebec empty handed because they have no power. That will help layton indirectly as well i think.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:58:23 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:58
skoblin
I notice you did not mention anything about Dion. I don't know what sort of strategy Dion could go with. With the Liberals having no chance to form the government, they have a weak position with which to argue that a Liberal vote means a say for Quebec. Now the Liberals can only argue that a vote for them would mean an effective Opposition in Parliament in representing Quebec's interests; but that's the Bloc's argument. So, it really comes down to Dion saying the Liberals would be the most effective Opposition in Parliament in representing the interests of federalist Quebeckers.That's a rather small pool to work from and will mean direct competition with Layton, whom Quebeckers - apparently - find more likable....even with his bad French. I think we will see the French debate having a greater impact on the overall election result than the English debate. If Dion fails in the French debate, you will probably see a collapse of Liberal support in Montreal and the possible loss of a lot of ridings. That won't happen with Toronto, even if Dion gets clobbered in the English debate.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:16:20 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:16
Foxer
Well there really is no 'good' stratagy for dion. His only real choice is to just go after harper hard, and hope that he sounds more passionate than the other two and his message sells.
He's very vunerable no matter which way he goes tho - the bloc will hammer the libs on past sins and the ndp will hammer them on not voting in the last parliament. In some ways dion has less of a chance in french than english.
But it's more than just the debates- if it is believed that dion cannot win and may not even make opposition, then that will weigh heavy on a lot of quebecer's minds. They won't want to vote for a party that has even LESS power than the bloc.
If he looks mediocre in the french debates, and then tanks in the english debates and continues his slide in the rest of canada, we could see quebec turn their backs on him.
I supsect his approach will be the same at both - try to attack attack and attack - and in quebec keep it at that and in the english debates throw in some 'liberal track record' of 'cleaning up tory messes', which he'll get torn apart on.
He really doesn't have a clear path to victory here, he's got to hope he can make some attacks that stick, and frankly he's in the weaker position there.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:48:15 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:48
hollinm
skoblin....Dion will crash in both debates. While he will have a language advantage in the French debate with Harper and Layton he has trouble speaking in short bites. He wants to talk in detail about whatever the subject is. There is no time in the debate. You need to be succint and able to make your point in a few seconds. That is not a trait of Dion.
In the English language debate he will be under attack by Layton and Harper. He will be thinking in French and trying to translate into English when making a point. He has trouble speaking English when talking without the pressure that the debate will add.
So Dion will fail in the French debate because Quebecers are not interested in what he has to say and in the English language debate because Harper will make him look foolish.
[updated Fri Sep 26 05:36:08 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 05:36
hollinm
Foxer one point I would make is that the federalists and nationalists want to have influence in the government. If Harper gets a majority there will be no influence by voting for Layton and so they will be watching closely to see which way the wind is blowing as election day approaches.
[updated Fri Sep 26 05:28:41 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 05:28
Foxer
Yes, the quebecquios are a fairly practical bunch - it's better to have some pull with the actual gov't most of the time.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:14:26 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:14
hollinm
skoblin...the tough on crime agenda is not new. The Cons have been pushing it since they came to power and despite that Quebecers feel that Harper provides strong leadership. The arts and culture thingy is strange. It could be argued that he should have waited until after the election but that is not Harper. He could have answered the question better but I suspect he will return to Quebec and smooth the waters. After all he doesn't want to peak too early.
One other point most of the Cons social views are not in keeping with Quebecers but they know he has done more for them since coming to power than the Libs ever did. They are looking for a federalist option and while the NDP may be more on their wave length socially Quebecers know that Layton will not form the government and they want influence in Ottawa. So we shall see.
[updated Fri Sep 26 05:24:29 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 05:24
Informed
It appears the Liberal brand is the "walking dead". Insiders know it.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:21:29 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:21
skoblin
Nik's numbers for Montreal
Bloc 32
NDP 27
Liberal 23
CPC 13
Green 6
I do not know if this includes much of the impact of the arts funding furor, but incredible numbers for the NDP, even including the MOE. At this rate it looks like the numbers for the NDP may pan out in a number of seats, but hard to tell since the Bloc have gone up recently and this poll covers 20-24 September. I think Harper may have botched it for any party making a breakthrough in Quebec now with his culture comments. His comments seem to have caused the Tories the fall, the NDP to stop growing and the Bloc to recoup its strength according to the main poll. But as far as Montreal is concerned, if this subpoll is correct, we may be looking at massive voter shift in a number of Liberal ridings on the island.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:09:32 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:09
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
The tories had no chance in montreal, and sinking there isn't much of a loss to them. It IS an amazing gain for the ndp, if they can translate that into seats.
Outside montreal the cpc is still competative and if they were going to make gains - thats where it was going to be.
The 'culture' thing was a mistake, but i don't think it'll hurt him long if he can appeal to quebecer's outside montreal.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:25:14 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:25
skoblin
Well, the regional numbers do not appear to good for the CPC as well. Down 5 points outside Montreal with the Bloc up 10. Perhaps in the eastern township you may see some Tory gains, but the 'culture thing' can not have gone over well around Quebec city and the sovereigntist heartland of central Quebec.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:34:21 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:34
Foxer
They were never going to take seats in montreal. Time will tell if quebec city and the areas around it care more about culture funding or the fact harper respects them as a nation - and whether or not they want direct access to the PM for goodies in the future.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:59:38 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:59
Lex Llewdor
If he can't make significant gains outside Montreal, it will make for a very interesting parliament (especially if he still manages a majority).
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:34:37 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:34
skoblin
Incidentally, Nik will be commenting on the situation in Montreal today on CPAC.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:40:36 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:40
skoblin
I really think the CPC's chances in Quebec are pretty much finished. Harper is going to be on the defensive now in the French debate and will have to either repeat his comments in French to Quebeckers or backpedal. Either way, not a good position to be in. His comments may have improved his party's standing in rural Ontario especially, but at the cost of a number of seats in Quebec which had appeared possible a week or two ago.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:01:35 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:01
hollinm
skoblin...you may be right but there is still two weeks to go in the election and you know what they say. That can be a lifetime in politics.
[updated Fri Sep 26 05:46:07 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 05:46
skoblin
Interestingly enough, considering the margin of error, the NDP could be leading in Montreal as well. Looking at the numbers, both the NDP and the Bloc have made enormous gains in Montreal with the NDP probably getting most of its support from the Liberals. If the Liberals in Montreal only were to switch in droves to the NDP, there could be some serious gains for the Dippers in Quebec after all. I wonder how Justin Trudeau is doing.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:58:01 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:58
Foxer
There were protests at trudeau's speech i believe. There is room there for a 'steal'.
I think if montreal sees the libs collapsing they may well move to the ndp in strength, and it could mean seats for the ndp.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:00:52 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:00
skoblin
We agree then....that is exactly what I just posted in the first thread. Federalist support in Montreal simply wants to make sure it will be heard in Ottawa. Does not matter at this juncture whether it is NDP or Liberal, as long as it is one of them. If the Liberals drop any more, then there may be an exodus over to the NDP, simply to make sure the seats don't fall into Bloc hands.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:19:11 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:19
Foxer
A very real possiblity. If the ndp can demonstrate they have the better chance - i think they'll take it.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:49:15 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:49
Non-aligned in Toronto
The Liberals appear to be collapsing in Quebec to the point where even their base is disappearing. That qualifies as a paradigm shift from which they may never recover in that region. Interesting times indeed.
NDP may very well win several seats. How many depends on how efficient their vote is. CBC and the Star would be devestated if their fair haired boy Justin were to flop in Papineau!
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:17:35 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 16:17
Non-aligned in Toronto
I think that the culture thing as well as the young offender thing will definitely hurt the Conservatives outside Montreal, and it won't help them inside montreal either. Harper has come off message . The friendly sweater guy is gone and ol scary eyes is back.
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:12:49 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 16:12
Foxer
Meh - i'm not seeing it. I think any issue there will be short lived. I think at the end of the day while it's important to many quebecers there are other issues they care about as much or more.
We'll see tho. You may be right.
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:19:32 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 16:19
Lex Llewdor
The young offender thing has a built-in safety valve - provinces can set their own age limits. I can't see any way it can hurt Harper long term.
[updated Thu Sep 25 17:05:46 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 17:05
hollinm
non-aligned....you may think the young offender thing will hurt Harper in Quebec but I don't think so. This is nothing new. Harper has been pushing the crime agenda for two years.
If you want scary just watch and listen to Dion. He is one desperate dude and what he is saying does not make sense. There are only two choices Harper or Dion. Quebecers like the rest of Canada want leadership and "ol scary eyes" as you put it is the only choice.
[updated Fri Sep 26 05:51:16 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 05:51
Non-aligned in Toronto
Duceppe has been attacking Harper (successfully, if the polls are right) on this issue. See his fresh meat comments. So there is no question it is playing poorly there. The only question is : Will it last?
Maybe, maybe not.
[updated Fri Sep 26 12:51:46 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 12:51
hollinm
Don't think it will last and I suspect Harper will go to Quebec and smooth the rough waters b4 the election.
If Quebecers see that Harper is going to win I suspect they will come on board.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:37:43 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:37
hollinm
Foxer....I agree Harper's strength is in the regions not Montreal but Layton could hurt Dion in Montreal for sure.
Harper will return to Quebec and clarify his comments on arts and culture and support the fact that funds have not been cut but reallocated to higher priorities.
On voting day Quebecers do not want a carbon tax, do not want Dion and Layton cannot form government. One thing about Quebecers, if it looks like Harper is going to get a majority, they will vote for the Cons.
The artists did not help themselves with their press conference. They looked arrogant and dismissive and proved Harper's point. By the way who were those people?
Nik's numbers do not show regional breakdowns within Quebec and there are probably a lot of ridings outside Montreal that agree with his "attack" on the elites.
[updated Fri Sep 26 05:43:50 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 05:43
Foxer
Well, sounds about right. I'll be honest, quebec is the province i understand the least (which is fair - I've often though quebecers understand bc'ers and albertans the least :) ) But this just doesn't have the 'feel' of a long term election issue outside montreal.
Time will tell. But i think harper will have something to mellow quebec with at some point.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:20:35 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:20
hollinm
I agree. Quebec is very hard to figure out. They used to vote in a block for the Bloc but now all bets are off. What I do think is that there is a political realignment going on in Canada with this election.
Did you see the news conference with Dion this morning at a senior citizen's home? Very small crowd, the media was not very friendly and some of the Liberal supporters tried to stop the press from asking questions about the Manitoba candidate who suggested the jews had moved out of the towers before the 9/11 attack.
Dion was very poor and in fact did not understand some questions in English. Gerard Kennedy (it was his riding) had to translate into French b4 Dion replied.
Do Canadians really want this guy to be our prime minister? It is absolutely scary.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:56:53 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:56
Foxer
Well no - no they don't :) if the polls are to be believed anyway.
dion's only attacking these days - he's completely given up on pushing his platform and that will only hurt him in the long run. It can lead to a small drop in cpc support for a very short time, but has no staying power.
Dion's got nothing left to offer and his message is going to get very dull very fast.
[updated Fri Sep 26 11:06:58 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 11:06
hollinm
Completely agree!
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:39:01 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:39
rm99
DION=PALIN
This is our KATIE COURIC interview! NO ANSWERS FOR SIMPLE QUESTIONS!!
Dion’s done. He’s going to get hammered in English Canada with this. Kind of ironic how he kept criticizing Harper over the last week but couldn’t say what he would do.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:13:07 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:13
Lex Llewdor
Hill & Knowlton's seat projection, based on these numbers:
CPC: 156
LPC: 63
NDP: 40
BQ: 49
GRN: 0
I know seat projection is horribly imprecise without really good regional breakdowns, but these are the first numbers I've seen that make me say "This looks like it might be a majority."
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:13:00 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:13
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
skoblin
Hill and Knowlton is a fairly off-target election predictor. One should be going province by province and then take into account individual ridings. It does place the CPC in majority country for sure, but how much of this increase in support is in ridings which were going to go Tory anyway? Still....continuing bad news for the Liberals, no growth at all anywhere.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:15:54 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:15
Lex Llewdor
I know - it's just the one I have handy.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:19:48 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:19
Lex Llewdor
And, if I can reply to myself, 33 of those Liberal seats (more than half) are in Toronto.
Only 5 Liberal seats west of Ontario (Yukon, Vancouver South, Vancouver Centre, Wascana, Churchill).
6 of 7 Newfoundland seats go CPC (sorry Danny).
This poll is a revelation.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:17:28 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:17
skoblin
Hmmm...I would consider Vancouver Center and Chruchill as gains for the NDP. Liberal support is tanking in the West. Churchill used to be an NDP riding and in Vancouver Center the NDP is running a strong candidate. The double carbon tax is killing the Liberals in BC. I think you may be right about NFLD, except I have St John East going NDP and St Johns-Mt Pearl going Liberal. The provincial Tories seem to have thrown their party machine at these two riding to help elect non-Tory candidates. Toronto, however, is still staunchly Liberal....
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:24:44 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:24
Lex Llewdor
I know Hill & Knowlton aren't taking this into account (which is another reason not to use their calculator - that's the last time I'll post its figures), but all four parties are running strong candidates.
The CPC candidate is an openly gay provincial cabinet minister.
The Green candidate is the former leader of the provincial party.
The NDP candidate is a very well-respected academic.
The Liberal candidate is Hedy Fry.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:32:26 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:32
skoblin
I have been perusing this site:
http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php
It gives some interesting remarks riding by riding by people who are following the campaign closely in their own ridings.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:37:23 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:37
Lex Llewdor
Thanks!
I used that site last election, but I'd completely forgotten about it.
You've made my day. I can't wait to read about the Vancouver ridings (BC's voting patterns are almost random - living here is such a huge change from Alberta).
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:44:01 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:44
skoblin
I have also moved to BC from Alberta. Small world! And yes....in BC there is actually politics going on...lol. Check out St. John's East and Central Nova if you wish to read some interesting comments. Would appear to be a cakewalk for the NDP in St. Johns and Peter Mackay may be in trouble in Central Nova. Not surprised. The Liberals evidently thought if they did not run a candidate all of their support would go the Green Party leader May. Seems not to be occurring and looks like a dogfight between the NDP and CPC.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:49:31 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:49
Lex Llewdor
I found the inevitable Conservative victories reassuring. It made the world feel stable.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:57:38 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:57
Informed
Conservative 155
Liberal 84
Bloc 39
NDP 30
Green 0
Independent 0
Vacant/Other 0
My prediction
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:18:09 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:18
HC in AB
Your comments regarding the projections are right, who knows? If you follow all the polls since the beginning of September and roll them all up over 4 days or so the conservatives have between 37 and 39 all month, mostly around 38, really no change at all. It looks like they locked in early and that is where they will be, barring something really out of left field (like Goodale in 2006) happening. The Nanos poll today is likely a little on the high side of the margin of error.
Using the same information the same way, the Liberals have faded a couple of points and the NDP is up a couple.
The most relevant numbers are the recent recovery of the Bloc in Quebec and NDP gaining in Quebec. This will likely mean that the Bloc will take some Liberal seats there. Although the Conservatives were second in about 40 ridings in Quebec last time out they were a pretty poor second in most of them (like a Liberal being second here in Alberta). If the Conservatives were to get 12 votes for every 10 last time and the Bloc 8 for 10 and the Bloc would still win. Under the most hopeful circumstance for the Conservatives, I don't really think that they have ever had growth potential of more than 3 to 5 seats there. That would mean that the Conservatives would have to gain at least 15 and probably 20 seats in Ontario to make the majority. Their support in Quebec is very wide and relatively thin and not concentrated enough to make the gains that they need.
What do you think?
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:14:55 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:14
hollinm
Lex...its too soon to talk about a majority. Voter turnout and the vote splits will be different around the country. Harper will win at least a minority but thats not good enough. Without a majority he will not have control of the committees and we will see more delay and obvuscations by the opposition parties.
We need decisive leadership and as Harper says nothing should be taken for granted.
[updated Fri Sep 26 05:55:06 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 05:55
Lex Llewdor
I don't think we'll see a majority. I think the CPC support really softens past 35-38%, and without some really lucky vote-splitting in Ontario and Quebec that won't do it.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:15:27 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:15
hollinm
I think the numbers in Quebec will come up as Quebecers want to be part of a government. The numbers will move after the debates and Dion falls flat on his face.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:36:00 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:36
rm99
DION=PALIN
This is our KATIE COURIC interview! NO ANSWERS FOR SIMPLE QUESTIONS!!
Dion’s done. He’s going to get hammered in English Canada with this. Kind of ironic how he kept criticizing Harper over the last week but couldn’t say what he would do.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:13:11 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:13
Peter3
OK, this is getting loopy. When are these numbers going to settle down into a significant trend (other than impending Liberal disaster). Conservatives up in Ontario and West, down in Quebec and East. They are finally back in legitimate majority territory. Anyone offering odds on how long it will last? So far this has been the ceiling on Conservative support.
Check out the NDP numbers for Montreal in the 5-day regional breakout. It would be interesting to see how the arts funding brouhaha has played into this. Quebec is looking more and more volatile. I'm thinking Mr. Duceppe has perhaps peaked too soon.
There is also a new Sun media poll at the nanos site on voter volatility. It shows a very high level of movement among parties. No surprise, I guess.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:13:06 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:13
28 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
I expect a pullback. Some 10% of Conservative voters are "uncomfortable" with the idea of a Conservative majority, so a quick drop back to the mid-30s is entirely likely.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:19:27 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:19
Foxer
I don't think so. I think that the drop to 37 WAS the pull back. I think a lot of people liked the announcement of tough on criminal polluters policies. I think that really hammered home for lots of folks - i know i've seen companies get away with murder and happily pay the pittance of a fine to do it. A few million bucks might change their tunes.
I don't think political support will 'firm up' till after the debates - they'll start to slowly 'lock down' at that point, and of course the big 'firming' will happen just before the election.
One thing is for sure tho - this is the 4th day in a row the libs have dropped - they're marching towards the basement.
At 25 percent we're on the verge of a complete liberal collapse.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:34:53 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:34
Lex Llewdor
Nik did have the CPC up at 39 on the 17th and 18th, and then the decline as low as 35 on the 21st. You could be right (which would mean this election is basically over for the Liberals).
Also, since Nik's numbers have, throughout the campaign, been the most favourable numbers for the Liberals (largely at the expense of the Greens for reasons we've prevously discussed), their core support is all they have. They're not appealing to anyone who doesn't vote Liberal out of habit.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:41:57 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:41
skoblin
I think the majority of the poll regarding Montreal does not include the arts funding controversy. I think if the full impact of that is taken into account, you may see the NDP numbers quite lower. Still, difficult to tell. Layton played his cards right by not letting Duceppe grandstand alone at the large arts funding concert that took place in Montreal. Where was Dion? Bad move by the Liberals in that regard. Dion should have been there as well. All in all, I think the arts funding controversy will have hurt the Liberals and Tories most in terms of lost support, while stopping NDP momentum. A strident remark by Harper and three parties suffer collateral damage!
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:19:45 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:19
Lex Llewdor
Has there been a significant development in this election that wasn't a bad move by the Liberals?
The only thing keeping Dion going at this point is he doesn't have the money to make easily mockable TV ads:
------
Stephen Harper has a dog.
You know who else had a dog?
Hitler.
Does Stephen Harper train his dog to attack ethnic minorities?
We don't know.
He's not saying.
------
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:25:58 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:25
skoblin
The Liberals only successful move was allowing Dion to be bombed by a puffin....wait...no..that was a Tory ad. sorry.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:38:53 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:38
Foxer
ROFL - yeah, the only thing that's saved the libs so far is that the tories are running a better campaign for the liberals than the liberals are :)
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:03:31 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:03
Craig
That was singlehandedly the FUNNIEST comment I have seen all campaign.
Kudos, I literally spewed water on my computer.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:08:44 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:08
Lex Llewdor
I know they happened almost three years ago, but those ads are just too funny not to keep making fun of them.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:13:23 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:13
Foxer
Heh - i know. I still laugh. And i'm not making this up :)
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:21:03 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 16:21
Foxer
The numbers will be volitile till at least after the debates. They'll start to firm up at that point.
I doubt the cpc vote will stay at 40 - it'll cruise around 39 - 38 until the debates. Oh - it might go up a point to 41 for a day, down a point to 37 for a day, but that's within the margin of error.
But - we are seeing the undecided slowly sinking. That's soft so far i'd bet, but there's a trend, and it's coming out on the side of the CPC so far.
The real question is will there be a stampede to the NDP on the left after the debates?
The libs have sunk 4 days now - it looks like liberal support is right on the edge of complete collapse.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:40:56 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:40
skoblin
On the edge, but what is the level of the core Liberal support, that won't budge? I can't see the Liberals falling below 22 or 23%. Toronto won't stand for it, lol. But yes, the debate will clear up almost everything and the number of undecided seems to be gradually falling off according to EKOS.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:51:43 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:51
Foxer
There is no such thing. The libs in the past have collapsed (under turner) and they can do so now. Plus - there's the question of how many demoralized liberal voters will turn out on election day anyway.
IF it is seen that the libs are going to collapse anyway - there will be a shift. And it won't be one dion cares to see. I can easily see liberal support on voting day dropping to 18 - 20 percent as voters rally around layton - and a lot of those decisions will be made inside the ballot box looking at the voting card.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:06:23 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:06
skoblin
Well...if the Liberals fall to 18% they will be spending a long time wandering in the wilderness. With the new party funding rules being as they are, no bail out will be possible on the part of pro-Liberal corporations as in the past. They will have to rely on small handouts with the party heavily in debt and two viable contenders for their traditional support.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:25:15 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:25
Foxer
Skoblin - with their current finances and borrowing if they get what they got before they're in real trouble. ANY drop will be disasterous for them.
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:00:46 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 16:00
Peter3
The debate may actually cause the undecided vote to increase for a bit, if there's a clear winner or, especially, a clear loser. Typically it takes vote a few days to move to its final destination after something like that.
I think the Liberals are going to have a hard time getting their support to the polls come election day, so disastrous numbers are possible.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:15:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:15
Craig
Does anyone think that Dion is going to unveil a big campaign promise during the debates? That is, like Paul Martin in 2006 when he suddenly announced he would make the Notwithstanding Clause illegal.
If I remember correctly, Martin was generally panned for this. Yet, Dion may have better advisors and could try it again.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:15:42 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:15
skoblin
As of right now, the only thing he could do is drop the carbon tax. It would be a dramatic move and would make him appear weak. But he already appears weak, so no loss there. In fact, strangely enough, it could make him appear decisive. 'I've listened to Canadians and Canadians have said NO. So I also say NO.' Stranger things have happened. Other than that, unless he can magically turn himself into Chretien and start strangling protesters he is done like poutine.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:28:33 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:28
Peter3
If you look closely at the footage you can see that Mr. Chretien was attempting a Vulcan mind meld and missed his grip...
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:35:22 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:35
Lex Llewdor
That would work, I think. It would remind people of John Turner in all the wrong ways, and show that Dion is not like him.
"You had a choice, sir. You could have said no."
This would be Dion saying no.
Incidentally, you'd think Turner would have learned from Gerald Ford. Don't pardon Nixon.
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:07:43 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 16:07
Peter3
One of the debate prep people for working for Mr. Dion is the guy who is credited with suggesting the nothwithstanding gambit to Mr. Martin last time out. Given that Mr. Dion doesn't seem to be getting good advice about much, anything is possible, I guess.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:28:43 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:28
skoblin
I don't think it is a question of good advice. I think Dion has been pretty much listening to Dion through this campaign. That has been the problem. Can you imagine any sane Liberal strategist suggesting a tax as being the party's main platform? This is all Dion in my opinion, and now the rest of party seems to be standing back to watch the implosion. Rae showed up for a bit and now seems to have run for shelter, same with Ignatieff. This campaign has been a disaster. I was watching CPAC last night covering the race in Vancouver Island North and the Liberal candidate there still didn't have any campaign signs. How f****d is that? Question now is who will pick up the pieces after Dion walks the plank? I don't see either Rae or Ignatieff wanting to have to rebuild the party and stand in the backbenches for four years if the Tories get a majority and the NDP end up as the OFOP. These two guys wanted to be PM, not backbenchers in the opposition gallery. Exit, stage right for those two.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:43:00 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:43
Lex Llewdor
I don't know about that. Dion's long been known as the Green Liberal, so by making his platform entirely Green they probablyfigured he could take all the Green votes (4%) and that would be enough to get past the Tories.
They completely failed to take into account Dion's unpopularity and the Liberals' severe funding disadvantage.
The Liberals will actually benefit from a Conservative majority because it will give them more time to recover financially before the next election. Another minority will mean another election in less than three years, and they still won't have any money.
History has taught Canadians that they are Liberals, but the new funding rules seem to demonstrating that Canadians are in fact Conservatives.
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:05:12 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 16:05
Lex Llewdor
He seriously said that?
Aside from needing a constitutional amendment to do it (and that's never going to happen), it's a great way to alienate Quebec. They use the notwithstanding clause the most.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:56:32 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:56
Craig
I think the official promise Martin made was that use of the Notwithstanding Clause by the FEDERAL government would be made illegal.
That way the provinces would be protected and he could pander to those who were "scared" that Harper would try to trump the Supreme Court at every turn.
------------
I don't see Dion announcing that he's ending the Green Shift, but it is possible he could announce some huge Health Care plan or copy Layton and abandon NAFTA (which is very unlikely).
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:26:11 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 16:26
Lex Llewdor
Layton going after NAFTA works. Most Canadians like NAFTA, but not the one's who might vote NDP. Layton's positions are often aimed at underrepresented people who don't agree with the majority.
Just yesterday Jack said he wants to scrap the softwood lumber deal, a deal the BC forestry sector loves. Many people will vilify Layton for it, but parts of the BC interior that aren't benefitting from the industry the way they think they could will love him for it. The deal prevents the BC government from using the forestry sector as a sort of regional development office by proxy, so now stumpage and mill construction are market regulated. Before BC could give lower stumpage rates to companies that would build mills where the government wanted them, so areas that made less economic sense still got some benefit.
The US (correctly) viewed this as a subsidy, and complained about it. Layton's plan would badly damage BC's economy, but it will win him tons of votes in poorer rural areas.
[updated Thu Sep 25 17:12:07 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 17:12
westerner (suspended)
Debates are a very poor place to announce policy changes. With five Parties debating the time for answers is going to be very short. The party leaders will need to be very concise, and long winded answers will result in them being cut off. I can't imagine anyone trying to announce substantive policy shifts at that time.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:55:49 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 18:55
MRM
Martin's promise to make the NWC illegal was a gimmick and a lie. To do so would require and ammendment to the constitution which in turn requires the assent from both the House of Commons and the Senate; the approval of two-thirds of the provincial legislatures, at least seven provinces, representing at least 50% of the population (effectively, this would include at least Quebec or Ontario, as they are the most populous provinces).
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:59:27 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:59
psiclone
I am curious as to what will happen when Dion's leadership numbers are the same as Ms May's and I wonder if their little political relationship will take a sudden turn for the worse and she kneecaps him and targets disaffected Liberals of which there seem to be quite a few of lately?
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:47:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:47
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Historically she's been a big fan of 'uniting the left'. If she does anything, she'll likely throw her support behind the libs to try to stave off defeat.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:50:30 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:50
Luc VNO
So it looks like we will get the Conservative majority we all wanted. Buyer beware though.... The Conservatives want to get tough on crime & look down our streets. You all think this isn't you that he is after, think again. Through the effects of continuous statute writing, everyone is a criminal. Every single Canadian breaks the law at least once every day. Speeding, J-walking, maybe you smoked a joint, but you did something. Think hard & you will find that you have broken a law today & maybe you should think twice before voting for someone who wants to crack down on you. Unfortunately, agreements we have made, NAFTA & WTO, stop us from writting any laws that could possibly affect someones percieved ability to make money, so they can only write laws that criminilize us, which Harper is more than willing to do.
I say again, buyer beware.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:37:06 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 18:37
51 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Good point. Harper continues to expand the definition of crime.... in his pathological definition of good vs. bad. I have no problem with locking up violent offenders but, take a closer look. Essentially victimless crimes like soft drugs have clogged the system almost beyond repair.
Harper doesn't care that 20-30% of the criminal justice system is tied up with drug users and minor pushers, a great number of which were entrapped by the police to sell them a nickle or dime of whatever. It is total madness that we continue to criminalize that which, at best, is a medical problem.
By the way. violent crime is down in our country, including among youth. Harper is creating fear in our minds, without the slightest factual basis. k. That's the way he is.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:51:03 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 18:51
Luc VNO
I totally agree with that, he is just scaring us for no good reason. Unfortunately though, there is an entire industry that relies on criminals for business. Judges, lawyers, clerks, cops, guards, parole officers. As canadians commit less crime these peoples jobs become at risk, so more things need to be made illegal to avoid a legal recession, a term I made up to describe the loss of jobs in the legal profession due to a lack of crime.
I just don't understand how people can listen to Harper & not hear that he's talking out of both sides of his mouth.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:13:15 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:13
Lex Llewdor
I don't see that drug use is a problem at all. I'd legalise it all. But I also need to scrap socliased medicine so it doesn't cost us money to treat them when they OD, and I know that's not going to happen under a Liberal government.
So, I have two options. Discourage drug use, and thus save money on healthcare, or don't discourage drug use and waste money fixing people who don't deserve the help.
I know which one I pick.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:33:01 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:33
westerner (suspended)
The Conservatives are proposing to get tough on SERIOUS crime not the silly stuff you are suggesting. You are over the top and continuing to portray Harper as turning everyone into criminals. What nonsense! This strategy is worn out and the Canadian people aren't buying it.
Paul Martin tried the "soldiers in the streets" routine and it failed miserably.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:06:10 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:06
Luc VNO
Really..... Have you read any of the legislation????
Manditory minimum sentence of 2 years if you are caught with more than 1 ounce of weed. Me & my friends are all adults, we don't buy single grams of weed anymore, we buy enough to last til the next paycheck. I don't know anyone who doesn't buy an ounce when the buy their weed. None of us are criminals, we are all otherwise law abiding citizens. How does that even make any sense??? 30% of Canadians smoke weed now, 60% have. Should we all be in prison???
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:20:10 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:20
Lex Llewdor
Who ever agrees with everything a politician says?
I'm a libertarian - I don't want the government to regulate anything - but if I have to pick and choose I'll choose to keep the government's hands off my money.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:29:34 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:29
Foxer
I don't have a problem with the legalization of dope.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:37:18 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:37
Lex, sorry, you make no sense. The point of this debate is drugs, especially soft drugs. It is not incredible how a parolee smoking a joint or drinking a beer has to go back to prison? These suckers don"t commit other crimes but, if they' re caught, game over.
We taxpayers get a $150k tab for two years of prison time. Vs, maybne $15 if we allowed them to stay on parole.
EASY CHOICE? MADNESS? APPARENTLY NOT,
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:55:30 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:55
Lex Llewdor
You're ignoring the cost of the drug use.
Though, I think people who want to criminalise all the drugs ignore the costs of the crime that creates. Not just the incarceration, but as long as the drugs are illegal then the prices will remain high, and people who want the drugs will commit crimes to get those drugs.
I'm with you on legalising drugs, but I haven't noticed anyone else suggesting it.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:59:39 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:59
I don't condone potheads. They're sick. But that's the point. They're not criminals.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:15:52 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:15
Luc VNO
Dude, I'm not sick.......
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:25:55 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:25
Lex Llewdor
I agree. you're not sick. You're making a choice, and you should be allowed to do that.
That's why I support the Conservatives in this election. They'll interfere in my life less.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:26:55 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:26
Luc VNO
That's funny, I'm voting anything but, because the Cons intend to interfere more with my life. If only they saw that pot should be treated as alcohol is, I might be tempted to vote for them.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:31:10 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:31
Foxer
You should join the party and speak up.
A lot of us have seen things we didn't like in the original cpc platforms and we've fought to remove them. And harper really does listen. Things like the whole 'gay marriage' issue, which most conservatives didn't feel was something the party should be against.
You may be surprised at the level of support you get -The 'mentality' behind firearms laws is similar to the argument around dope laws. A lot of firearms owners comment on that, and there's a lot of firearms owners in the CPC.
I could see the cpc decriminalizing small amounts - but it won't happen if nobody fights for it.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:51:34 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:51
If you believe Harper will fight to decriminalize soft drugs, then I have swamp land in Florida for you. Please. Show some respect for readers.
[updated Fri Sep 26 23:31:46 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 23:31
Foxer
Harper will do what the members of the party want him to do. If there is a push for it, then it will be considered. That's one way the cpc is different from the liberals. The PEOPLE make the policy. Once it's made, harper carries it out (and then it's best not to get in his way).
Your blind devotion to your ideology aside - if the poster joins the cpc and makes a case for it, it will be heard.
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:46:28 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 00:46
Foxer, Harper follows instructions? How novel a thought. I thought he was a leader.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:35:33 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:35
Foxer
Leader isn't the same as dictator. A good leader listens, sets a plan, then executes it. As dion's finding out - dion doesn't listen to anyone and then sets a plan and doesn't follow it. Which isn't working as well :)
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:19:56 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:19
How do you know Dion "doesn't listen to anyone."? That he isn't following a set plan?
Sounds like more mistruths to me.
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:42:09 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:42
Foxer
Well his people have complained in public several times now that he doesn't listen and is driving the show on his own. i figure they'd likely know. :)
And the fact that he flip flops so regularly pretty much shows he's not following any set plan. Even his green tax isn't a plan - it's sort of a vague proposal for an experiment, no measurable results no goals no targets, nothing.
Pretty simple. Have you seen any indication he's following a plan? Other than just bashing others like crazy at the moment?
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:48:51 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:48
Lex Llewdor
Foxer's right. The CPC still has all the mechanisms of a populist party like Reform was. The members can direct policy - it's not a top-down sort of party the way the PCs were under Mulroney.
This is why the party so adamantly opposes the gun registry, even though that probably hurts the party a lot in Toronto and Montreal. This is why the party will not raise the gay marriage thing again; the members don't want them to.
There's significant pressure from BC to decriminalise or even legalise pot, partly because it's BC's biggest industry (estimated at $12 billion annually) and right now all that money is going to organised crime.
There are good, fiscally conservative arguments as to why pot should be legalised. The party will move on this issue if enough members want them to.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:21:19 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:21
Foxer
Surprisingly, a large number of firearms owners are open to the idea of legalizing personal amounts - the arguments are very similar to why people should be allowed to own firearms.
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:20:51 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:20
Luc VNO
Every main party but the Cons have legalizing pot on thier platform. The Greens & the NPD aren't shy about saying it, but even the Libs introduced bill c-17 under Paul's House, which would have decriminalized small amounts & allowed for the growth of three plants in the home for personal use.
If there were a 10% tax on pot, we could cut the income tax by several points in each bracket.
Everyone seems to think that the NPD & Green party's promises of spending will ruin the economy or that they will have to raise taxes, but both parties plan to tax the pot, so thier spending promises don't sound so outlandish.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:20:02 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:20
larryl
luc. Would you grow your own if it was legal. That's why they will never make it legal. They would make no money from it and health care costs would drop dramatically since people who smoke pot usually don't suffer from all the stress related illnesses. Real pot heads don't even know there sick and don't care if they do know it .
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:32:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:32
Luc VNO
Just because I would take the time, doesn't mean that most would. I could, if I wanted to, brew my own beer, but I don't, so the government gets its tax. I strongly believe that we will see the day of drug policy that makes sense. It just has to get worse before it gets better.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:34:41 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:34
MRM
Luc - Put the joint down and read the party platforms. NONE of the parties advocate legalizing pot, including the Greens and NDP. Your statements about the Greens and NDP taxing pot are not true. You are just blowing smoke (pun intended). As an example, that is why the NDP just dumped two candidates in BC and the Marijuana Party has turned on them. ALL of the party’s do advocate decriminalization though.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:33:35 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:33
rm99
DION=PALIN
This is our KATIE COURIC interview! NO ANSWERS FOR SIMPLE QUESTIONS!!
Dion’s done. He’s going to get hammered in English Canada with this. Kind of ironic how he kept criticizing Harper over the last week but couldn’t say what he would do.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:13:41 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:13
Foxer
Dion and the libs made me a criminal years ago with c-68.
Harper isn't going after j-walkers, and everyone knows it. I'm sure you can see the difference between a kid j-walking and someone who commits a violent crime.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:35:35 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:35
Luc VNO
yet bill c-17 in paul martin's government would have wiped out my criminal record.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:57:11 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:57
Foxer
Maybe. If he'd ever passed it. Of course - it didn't really legalize it, it just 'decriminalized' small amounts. Still against the law, just not criminal.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:04:09 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:04
gfthompsonjr
We do in fact have a Charter of Rights and Freedoms in this country that protects us from the state...That ain't gonna change no matter who is elected, my fear mongering friend. LOL. BTW - Watch out for the bogeyman.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:43:48 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:43
Luc VNO
& yet I have been criminalized all my life for being a pot smoker. It has gone to far already, we don't need a government that wants to continue criminalizing its citizens. Harper has said he wants to attack the culture of pot smoking in Canada. That's a direct attack on me. I've never broken any other law & I still have been in court almost every year, sometimes more than once for just possessing a small amount of pot. When will I not be considered a criminal for an activty I enjoy that doesn't harm others. When will we stop handing organized crime unprecendented profits rather than reaping the benefits of taxing a substance that has become the choice of many Canadians over alcohol.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:09:51 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:09
westerner (suspended)
The solution is simple. STOP SMOKING POT.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:19:04 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:19
Luc VNO
Or..... I could vote for a party that agrees with my views. Since that includes 4 of the 5 major parties, I've got options.
Besides, why should we, as the people of this country, have to tolerate laws that criminalize such a vast proportion of our citizens???!!!?!!!???
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:43:32 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:43
westerner (suspended)
What ? "5 major parties"; You will have to name them please.
[updated Fri Sep 26 00:35:33 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 00:35
larryl
Any one interested can see Ton Flanagan on TVO right now.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:17:39 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:17
westerner (suspended)
What is TVO?
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:36:15 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:36
larryl
Westerner. TV Ontario is a publicly funded educational network here. It is not a left wing network. The host of THE AGENDA is going to be the moderator of the english language dedates . Tonight's panel included a pollster and reps from the 4 major parties. It is quite interesting and you should be able to listen on the net at tvo.org. Replayed at 11 our time so it might be of interest . Not sure if it is replayed on the net. The former Tory premier's girlfriend was head of the network but her only qualification was that she married the owner of CTV John Bassett. She was 30 years younger than him and looked pretty good .
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:17:11 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:17
westerner (suspended)
TV Ontario? Probably has a anti western bias.(Sad but true) Good for John Bassett that he married a woman 30 years younger who was good looking. Wealth has its rewards.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:35:29 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:35
larryl
westerner. You can judge for yourself if it is on the net. Are you really that paranoid that anything from the east has to have an anti west bias. Old John F was still married to his first wife when screwing around with Isabel . If wealth allows adultery as one of it's rewards I think I will stay poor for another 40 years with the same woman.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:05:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:05
fortescue
Via Warren Kinsella commenting on this poll
"If Nick's right - and I don't know a serious Liberal who doubts his professionalism - then this thing has turned into a scramble for survival. That's it. "
15 points is huge.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:24:14 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:24
larryl
fortescue. Two of the three on the AT Issue panel last night did not put much credence in the rolling poll used here . It is based on 400 interviews per day and to have a 15 point shift in one day does seem a little far fetched even for Harper supporters. Kinsella is a pro at this and knows they can get Liberals back in the fold if they can convince people the party is in danger of disappearing.Many are still angry and don't like Dion but will get back to their roots if they fear the party could collapse. There is still two lifetimes left in the campaign and many things could happen. Watch for Elections Canada to make some announcement soon.
[updated Fri Sep 26 07:49:57 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 07:49
dgbeaulne
Larry, with all due respect, what the heck does Elections Canada have to do with polls? What kind of announcement do you think they'd come out with?
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:12:25 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:12
Foxer
And when did we get a 15 point shift in a day? The numbers change maybe one or two points in a day.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:54:25 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:54
larryl
DG. Elections Canada has nothing to with theses polls but an annoucement from them will have a huge impact on the undecided voters and there will be a significant swing coming soon. There are other things still to come in the next two weeks.
[updated Fri Sep 26 11:46:12 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 11:46
dgbeaulne
Sorry Larry, I'm gonna need you to draw me a picture. Being undecided, I really would like to know why you think Elections Canada is going to make an announcement, and why you think that is going to have an influence on a voters' decision. Do you know something that the rest of us don't?
[updated Fri Sep 26 12:25:44 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 12:25
larryl
DG. Every one knows Elections Canada was conducting an investigation into the In/Out scheme. It did not stop when the election was called. It is quite possible they will file charges against the 69 candidates who took part and should do that before the election since they have an obligation to ensure a fair campaign . If the rules were broken should we be informed before we go to the polls. If they wait till after and any of those people are charged and convicted E.C. has the power to deregister a political party. That would cause another election .
[updated Fri Sep 26 12:39:42 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 12:39
dgbeaulne
So the people that were butting heads with the Conservatives could make the decision at the most "opportune" time to torpedo this campaign?
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:18:21 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:18
larryl
DG. If you ask the right wingers they will tell you E.C. is a Liberal friendly group who are investigating the CPC when they are well aware the in/out. has been used by all parties. Harper called this election to stop committees and his own investigation of Mulroney/Schreiber from embarassing his party. The E.C. investigation was not stopped and could release it's findings at any time. What kind of voter outrage would we see if they release the information after the election. Harper's lawsuit against Dion and the Liberal party will probably be thrown out but that has been delayed by this election. Too many things we should have been allowed to know but Steve found the perfect way to stop it all except for one.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:32:34 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:32
Lex Llewdor
There will be no charges. The rules weren't broken.
A lot of people think the spirit of the rules were broken, but that's not relevant. That's not how rules work.
The Bloc used to pay people to donate to it - with the tax benefits for political donations, it ended up earning money for both the party and the donors. When I worked at Reform I proposed we do the very same thing. Here's how it worked:
Party gives $50 to Member.
Member makes $100 donation to Party.
Member files taxes, and gets $75 back from the government.
The net result there is the government handing $25 to the donor and $50 to the party. It was a great scam, and it was entirely legal (if grossly underhanded).
No one got punished.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:32:01 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:32
larryl
lex. Do you think it might still be going on since the CPC is so good at fund raising. I think the investigation is still ongoing and I have filed another complaint with regard to the CPC violating campaign funding rules.I imagine they will be launching another
investigation when the campaign expenses are submitted.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:41:06 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:41
Ken in AB
Did I read that right? "In the Atlantic provinces and Toronto, the Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked". TORONTO????.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:37:57 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 18:37
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
Yep.
When Toronto is waffling on the Liberals, that's total party wipeout time.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:30:02 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:30
Beckie
No way! The Liberals will take Toronto! If they don't, then they deserve a Con. Gov't. and they had better not complain! Whatever happened to all those angry Income Trust voters who lost so much because of SH's broken promise?! I know of a lot of previous Con. voters who will vote for anyone but SH...... Remember we get the Gov't. we deserve!
[updated Sun Oct 12 18:51:37 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 18:51
gfthompsonjr
Yes, the regional numbers do not look all that good for the CPC around Montreal - However, I don't believe there was any vision of great gains in that area. One thing we should keep in mind is that Duceppe needs only to run a campaign in one province, a fact that allows him to get much more exposure than the other leaders.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:32:28 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:32
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Stephen Harper is the most trustworthy leader by far!
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:43:00 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:43
28 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Who the hell are you to intrude on our private conversation? A paid rat, I suspect. Come on. Confess.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:20:16 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:20
larryl
Sharp. You have hit the nail on the head . He is attempting to waste your time so you can't point out the ridiculous arguments of others who are old enough to vote. He is either the expert or some other right winger using a second name to play silly games.Are you watching TVO?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:27:26 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:27
Padre, at a young age I know more than you, at your age you'll be dust. Buddy, Larryl and rsharp the next election I will be voting. Go hug a tree thanks.
Go back to the classroom to brush up on your political knowledge. Your wasting my time, sound familiar.
Thanks for coming out Padre's.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:59:30 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:59
You are a newcomer with zero credentials. Not a single fact to back up your bravado. Until you do, you remain a [EDITED BY MODERATOR}.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:04:52 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:04
That's the best you've got Padre. Can you say "I'm a big kid now!" I know more than you and you need to go back to the classroom.
Vote Stephen Harper, Vote Conservative.
Left wing politics suck!!
[updated Fri Sep 26 06:39:37 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 06:39
Foxer
It is a very sad fact that frequently those on the left have a habit of attempting ad hominem attacks on anyone they disagree with tory. Attempts to discredit you because you haven't posted here long - like only those who have been here a while could possibly know anything.
Which shows their mentality. This is why they're losing this election.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:57:05 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:57
ASPEN
Ya, you get the same kind of replies on Garth Turner's blog where the atmosphere is virtually polluted with ad hominem attacks on any one who differs with their "Dear Leader" or, God forbid, Garth. Liberals have become so myopic they cannot see that the country has largely left their ideology behind.
But hey, my first post here so what do I know right. I am a former Liberal by the way and not a paid party hack, which always seem to be their default charge.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:51:02 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:51
Foxer
Well first off as a new poster you clearly cannot possibly know anything, and should confine your questions to such things as "what does 1 + 1 equal"? If you're answer isn't "Liberal", you're wrong. :)
I find it interesting that for years liberals claimed to be the 'tolerant' group - supposedly those who are more open to others, who believe everyone should have rights and be respected. Yet it's clear that the reality has become quite different. I've heard dozens of examples in radio, tv and blog sites.
If you don't agree - it's probably because you're too stupid to understand the issues and probably brainwashed. The idea that someone might have a different opinion and that is allowed is not one that comes up.
If the other party believes in or suggest something that is different than what the liberal believes - the other person is a monster and must be attacked with personal insults.
It really is time for the liberal party to be crushed and given a chance to re-imagine itself. It is not a party of honest progressives any more - it's a party of intolerance.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:58:27 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:58
dgbeaulne
quite sad that you feel you have to justify your post with a disclaimer of non-party affiliation. I have posted to Garth's blog with pointed questions, no answer, and my entry was deleted. And to think I used to like him for his candidness...
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:41:49 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:41
MRM
rsharp - You are the most factless poster on this blog. You make big statements like "facts count" and "I back everything I say with facts" but a quick review of your posts will show that you NEVER give anty facts. You just give your ideological twist on things in an attmpt to deceive and mislead. I challenge anyone to go through your post and produce one fact that is independantly verifiable from a credible source? Good luck, your going to need it.
[updated Fri Sep 26 11:05:03 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 11:05
MRM, "never" is a pretty strong word and perhaps a mistruth, n'est-ce pas? I blew Foxer away yesterday with a sourced fact about the USA's homicide rates being almost three times those of the UK and Canada, even though the former imprisions 2 million people. Tough on crime doesn't work down there, and it won't work up here.
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:17:46 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 20:17
MRM
rsharp - Whatever, you finally had one fact! Congrats, maybe this will be the start of something? Problem is that homocide rates have little to do with prison rates. It is not much of a deterent. But putting them on house arrest is sure not the answer either. Prison is not just about deterance and rehab. Thers is a punishment aspect to it as well and it is used to protect society.
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:46:11 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 00:46
I believe we have the "toughest" criminal justice system in the free world (next to our friendly neighbours). We lock up and recommit thousands of people many other countries don't, because of our insane war on drugs. I believe our sentences are longer.
Harper is expanding the definition of crime to 14 year old children by messing with things like age of consent and crimes for which they can get life sentences. His creepy refusal to protect a Canadian sentenced to death in the States scares me. I hear he doesn't like a woman's right to choose and that scares me too.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:30:52 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:30
MRM
rsharp - do you ever actually do a fact check on some of the inane stuff that you post? If you did you might avoid looking so foolish. Harper is not "changing the definition of crime". He is changing sentencing laws for young offenders. We will be very similar to what is now in place in the UK and most other European countries. Not as strict as your favorite, France though. There it is 10 years old. He is doing this primarily to try and stop adult gang members from exploiting kids by hiding behind the YOA. This move has been hailed as the right thing to do by every youth crime advocacy group and three out of four opposition parties (not the Liberals).
Harper has never been opposed to a woman’s right to choose. Hmm let me see who was it that last brought that up as a bill in the House, oh yeah it was a Liberal MP who wanted to curtail those rights wasn’t it? Good thing the Tories joined in with the NDP to vote it down. The Liberals did not show up for the vote.
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:02:42 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:02
westerner (suspended)
larryl
Did you read Margaret Wente's column in the G and M on Sept. 23? Don't Miss It!
It was titled "Any Weaker and Mr. Dion would need a blood transfusion." She says,"Some long-time political observers say he is the weakest national leader they've ever seen." Forget TVO.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:46:27 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:46
larryl
Westerner . If you have been paying any attention at all you would know I have said the best thing that could happen is for Dion to resign or lose his seat and be forced to resign. I would make a better P.M. than Stephane and my language skills are better in English but not in French which is your biggest objection to him. The only papers I read are the ones I get free on the net. Have never looked at the G &M. but might now. I do check out the Calgary Herald and Sun to keep up with what goes on in Oilberta.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:19:24 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:19
Foxer
G&M's free on the net Larryl -
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:57:50 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:57
larryl
Sharp. You have hit the nail on the head . He is attempting to waste your time so you can't point out the ridiculous arguments of others who are old enough to vote. He is either the expert or some other right winger using a second name to play silly games.Are you watching TVO?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:27:27 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:27
Hey rsharp, who are you? Don't even know you, butt out bud. Thanks. I am not a inside rat thanks.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:54:11 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:54
larryl
Anyone interested should go to tvo.org
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:59:14 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:59
Pipe it bud. Just because I am smarter than you and have a better control of my temper, there is no reason to be jealous. It sounds like you did not get my message, GO HUG A TREE! Stop calling Alberta, Oilberta, and saying that I'm so great not using a car for 5 years. Yeah, way to go Padre!
It sounds like you need to go and watch Playhouse disney. Thanks for saying I am intellegent when you said anyone interested go to TVO.org. I watch the agenda with Steve Patkin and Nova. Thanks for saying I'm smart.
On October 14th Vote the Right Choice, Vote Stephen Harper, Vote Conservative.
[updated Fri Sep 26 06:37:04 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 06:37
MRM
Tory 101 - This is all they have "left" They never had any facts to back up their kooky conspiracy theory nonsense and their "lets scare peolple into voting for us' tactics are not working so the only thing left is the tried and true personal attack. It is sad, but true none the less. By the way, since when did a blog becomae a private conversation?
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:39:20 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:39
You hit the head on the nail. Thanks a lot for backing me up MRM. They never have facts to
back up their outrageous claims. They continue to scare people into voting them. They have two adds ready to go to attck Harper if they are losing in the polls. They used their Listerosis
add to scare people to say that Gerry Ritz is a monster and Harper backs him up.
Again thank you MRM.
Vote Conservative
Chris
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:02:00 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:02
MRM
No problem Chris, in fact believe me when I say it is my pleasure! They keep trying to scare voters but it is not working. In fact it is having the opposite effect. Now they are trying the whine tactic. Dion is actually blaming Harper or his low poll numbers. As if he did not look weak enough before this makes him look like even more of a weak kneed geek. Even his own party has had enough of him and is deserting in droves.
[updated Sat Sep 27 23:40:59 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 23:40
Thanks again. Your right. The People that ran against Dion for the Liberal Leader vote are now campaigning with him so next election, after Dion loses and Harper wins (knock on wood) they would have already gone through parts of Canada. Dion said that he lets the media come any time, but he made a speech in Stoney Creek yesterday and had to move to a different area for the question period because the media and the audience did not like him. Only two people clapped, and that was the Paddy Torsney, Burlington Liberal Candidate and the Hamilton Incumbent. That is another lie from Dion. He actually said he has never lied in his life. When Canada knows he did during his Liberal Leader campaign, he said "I will not introduce a carbon tax, it is not necessary." He did introduce the Carbon Tax and the Green Shift. He also said "People are dying to vote Liberal." NO. A reporter then said “People aren't exactly dying to vote Liberal, the polls show the Liberal numbers are at an all time low!" Dion replied “We do not listen to the polls." Any good politician knows you take the trends from the polls and get a sense of what is going on. Even normal Canadians know that and this guy wants to be Prim Minister. I think not! He would embarrass Canada on the world stage and people would laugh at us that we elected a Village Idiot!
Thanks again,
Chris, Ontario
[updated Sun Sep 28 09:44:46 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 09:44
MRM
People are definately not dying to vote Liberal, more acurately - The Liberal vote is dying (lol)
[updated Sun Sep 28 13:33:29 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 13:33
You must be a con mans delight . Wanna buy a bridge in Brooklyn ?
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:44:26 -0400 2008]
29 Sep 16:44
MarEng67
Latest news indicates that Reformers filled 148 positions leading up to the election with patronage appointments. So much for "Promise Made, Promise Kept!" I
We'll see Oct 14 just what the electorate really thinks of Harper - that is the only poll that really counts.
[updated Mon Sep 29 21:18:45 -0400 2008]
29 Sep 21:18
Conservative Party and Undecided would be my two choices for if the election was held today.
Stephen Harper would make the best federal leader. The most competent leader, and the best vision for Canada by far.
Conservatives all the way.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:45:44 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:45
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MRM
You. I and a majority of voters agree. On Oct 14 they will speak.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:40:33 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:40
Chris, Ontarion,
If the number stay steady Nic, will the Conservatives win a majority?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:10:29 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:10
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Too close to call with these numbers Tory - looks like about 154 seats for the cpc and that's right on the edge. If they go up even a hair in quebec, they'll have their majority and then some.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:59:45 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:59
Mr_Michael
When you poll people are you using the same group of people? These numbers are in such a state of flex, how can you truely gauge the true picture.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:16:47 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:16
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Chris, Ontario
When looking on election night, how many seats is a majority?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:17:26 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:17
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HC in AB
154
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:20:55 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:20
Lex Llewdor
154 is only a majority if you name an opposition MP as Speaker, and that can cause all sorts of problems.
155 is a majority.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:24:01 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:24
Foxer
And while i'ts a 'technical' majority - it's not really a majority. The fact is that if one of your people was sick, or off doing something else, you would have a minority. Not to mention we usually see a seat or two vacant due to death or retirement or people moving on.
Really a minimum of 155 (and that's if you appoint a speaker from the other party) is the BARE minimum and 160 is more like a real majority.
Of course - the way harper has pushed around dion - a majority with the liberals in the house is having more votes than the NDP :)
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:02:04 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:02
ed84
I can't understand why people don't pick up on this hypocrisy from the Conservatives.
The latest comes from the crime front and giving stricter sentences for 14yr old youth. Two years ago they raised the age of consent from 14 to 16yrs old. I have no issues with protecting youth, that is how it should be, but that move two years ago suggested that they think youth at that age don't have the judgment and are too easily coerced into different situations. So how would committing a crime be any different? If you think youth don't have the judgment and are easily coerced into making bad decisions at that age, why is committing a violent crime any different?
This is the same party that talks about safety and safe communities but they are not for gun control.
Ermin
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:17:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:17
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Luc VNO
What gets me is that if you are adult enough to get life in the federal pen at 14, why aren't you adult enough to buy smokes, alcohol, porn & go gambling??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:22:56 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:22
Craig
First of all, no one is talking about "getting life".
All the Conservatives are trying to do is make people take a little more responsibility for their actions. At 14 people should know right from wrong. They should know that if they break the law, they are going to get punished.
It isn't a question of being "adult" enough. It is a question of responsibility.
I bet there are thousands of teenagers that could gamble, buy cigarettes or read porn with no reprecussion. Yet we draw the line at 18, which says "at this age you are responsible enough to handle this".
The Conservatives are drawing the line for major crimes at 14.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:22:17 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:22
Foxer
I'm sorry - at 14 you REALLY aught to be old enough to understand that murder is wrong.
However - these aren't manditory minimums. The judges will still decide on sentencing based on the severity of the crime. And while a judge may decide a 14 year old shouldn't get the maximum - what about an 17 year old who in cold blood beats a young child to death? Or slaughters their family? You figure 10 years is enough for that?
You want to talk about hypocracy - you make it sound as if every 14 year old will now be sentanced to life automatically, and that's not the case.
Tell me craig, in your opinion how old do you have to be before murder is wrong.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:25:06 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:25
Craig
Murder is always wrong.
I understood this probably by the time I was in grade 2. So, that would be about 8 years old. By the time I was a teenager I FULLY understood what caused murder and what happened when you were caught.
Of course, no one is talking about children being severely punished because there are no crimes being committed.
However, teenagers do commit crimes and deserve the punishment.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:23:41 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:23
Foxer
Exactly. I pretty much had the whole 'murder is bad' thing figured out long before i was a teen.
Judges will still have a choice in sentancing, but i'm sorry - a 16 year old dumps gasoline on another kid and lights him on fire... you HAVE to know that's a bad thing to do!
Or luring a 14 year old girl into a park so you and some friends can beat her to death.
Or running over a gas station attendant and dragging him 2 blocks while you can hear him screaming just to steal 50 bucks worth of fuel.
That kind of stuff deserves more than just 10 years in jail - of which you'll get 2 off due to 'double' time while you were waiting for trial and be elegible for parole automatically in 5.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:27:47 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:27
Craig
I never understand how anyone can be against this.
How can anyone say, "you know what, he's been reprimanded for luring and killing that girl, that's good enough"?
What kind of message does that send to other potential offenders?
Sometimes the people in the country make me really embarassed.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:12:13 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:12
Foxer
The way it works now is a lot of kids lose their fear of the so-called 'justice system' early on when they realize there are no serious penalties for what they do.
Then they become adults and they learn to manipulate that system.
If they learn to have a little fear of the system early on, if they realize they could easily face harsh penalties for crimes, then they don't go down that road as much. And if they do - they can be removed from society so they can't kill any more people.
I doubt the victims feel less dead when it's a 17 year old who kills them.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:24:21 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:24
MRM
A few years ago the police in Winnipeg picked up three youths aged 12, 14 and 15 stealing cars. They had all of the tools carried by professional car thieves and were well trained on there use. One even carried a booster seat and pedal blocks. They told police that to date they had collectively stolen about 30 vehicles and had an entry time record of about nine seconds. Not as good as their other friends but they were working on beating them. They got paid $50 a car. They had also been well trained on the Young Offenders Act and what to say to police if arrested. Police knew the 34 year old gang member that they worked for but could not do anything about it because the kids cannot be compelled to testify in court as it would reveal their identity.
They were placed in a youth home. Two weeks later the 14 year old stole a car and in the process hit and killed a nine year old girl.
So it is not that people are not picking up on the “hypocracy” as you put it. They are fed up and want some serious action taken on crime and youth crime in particular. They want action to prevent gang activity and the loopholes in the law which allow adults to exploit children. As victims they want be protected at least as much as we protect the criminals. If you don’t get that then it is you who are out of touch, not most Canadians.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:01:38 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:01
I believe its refers to "violent" criminals. If tests determine you are going to re-offend/rehab is not likely to work and present a danger, the public interest is to have these individuals put away for longer terms. Dont you agree?
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:15:02 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:15
ed84
It makes no difference if its a violent crime. This has to do with the Conservatives view on youth, their view on youths judgment and how impressionable they are. If you raise the age of consent because you think youth at 14 are not at that stage where they can make correct decisions, then a similar thing can be said about crime. If they are impressionable at 14 where they can be taken advantage of for sexual reasons, then they are impressionable in some bad environment to commit violent crimes.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:59:06 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:59
Again that does not make sense, did they not give the judges more discretion? What source(s) are you getting your information from? I would like to read it. How do you know how Conservatives think and can comfortably state "THEY" all think the same? I dont understand the basis of your comment. Do all people who support Liberal/NDP/Bloc/Green platform share only one point of view on all matters?
ed84-"This has to do with the Conservatives view on youth, their view on youths judgment and how impressionable they are" Are you labeling people who agree with that specific policy announcement as only being a "Conservative" is it possible alot of people who don't belong to any party but cherry pick what ideas best fits their own value system at that time?
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:31:35 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:31
dgbeaulne
Yes we do cherry pick the policies we like from each party. I like the Conservatives tough on crime policies. I have a hard enough time teaching my pre-teen girls right from wrong and there is my neighbour smoking dope in his garage every evening. I like the Conservatives stance on the economy because I don't believe that government should micro-manage economies, the Soviets tried that, and look where it's got them. I like the NDP's stance on the environment because I see smog every blasted morning on the way to work, but I contribute to that smog because my little town does not have a public transit system and no bike paths. I like the NDP for pledging to reduce credit card interests rates because it bugs me that they raised them in the early '80s to slightly exceed the rates of the day, but once interest rates came back down, they conveniently didn't drop them. Personally, credit card rates should be set float at prime +7 to 10%, not set at 19% to 28%, this just keeps us as wage slaves. I'd actually welcome a gov't that would set credit card rates on a semi-annual basis. I used to consider myself purple, but I think I'm significantly blue with a smidgen of orange.
[updated Fri Sep 26 14:02:08 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 14:02
Sounds like you believe in a smaller Federal Government, better environmental standards, improved consumer protection. The last two ideals are supported by all the parties as I understand their platforms but they have VERY different approaches. For smaller government only the Tories platform support that corrrect?
If you are voting and only the Liberals or Tories can form a government how do you justify voting for any other party unless it is a protest vote?
[updated Fri Sep 26 15:49:20 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 15:49
Craig
Hi Nik, great show as always.
I have two questions:
1. Does Nanos poll the northern territories, or is it statistically impossible given the size and population? Do you have a general idea of the breakdown.
2. How is the leadership index calculated?
Thanks,
Craig
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:22:00 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:22
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
fortescue
TPQ where are you??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:30:13 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:30
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
TPQ is suspected of changing names from time to time. He/She may show up under a different name.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:22:46 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:22
Craig
I was wondering the same thing lol.
He is probably hiding in shame.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:23:03 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:23
I does not matter where he lives if he only uses this forum for spin. I dont care what party you support just provide useful debate vs fear smear games.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:16:21 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:16
Cousinj
Hi Nik,
Will Nanos come out with the numbers based on age groups at any time during the election?
Thanks
JM
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:30:48 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:30
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
John999
How do you feel when you hear candidates say they don't "look" or rely on the polls that you provide and only the final vote matters?
Does it seem silly to you?
- John
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:31:29 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:31
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
All parties do their own polling. That is why I refer the Liberal Party to the "walking dead". Regardless if Harper forms a majority, the liberals' party spirit will be crippled. They will be in a much weaker position to oppose Harper in parliament unless they shift from left to a centrist approach and adopt key planks in his platform. They will start to undermine their leader in more direct attacks with defections. If the Tories are within striking distance of a majority, I suspect 4-5 MP's will leave the Liberal Party and sit as independents, Tories or join the NDP.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:30:41 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:30
My, things are not working out as they should. But I will never give up hope for human decency until its over, Mr. Harper hasn't a decent bone in his body. Not one. He's mean and vindictive and on and on.. This man would set us back about a century! He's reallty dangerous.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:32:28 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:32
53 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Craig
Again you go "on and on" about this every day and have yet to offer a shred of proof beyond the usual rhetoric.
Don't bother replying, I'll do it for you:
Mr. Harper is:
Pro-American
Bush's buddy
too tough on criminals
a "bully"
has a hidden agenda
Have I covered them all? How do you seriously believe all that?
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:25:53 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:25
westerner (suspended)
There are more than a few Canadians who disagree with you! I consider Dion to be really scary with his hidden agenda but I know many Canadian voters disagree, not that there is anything wrong with that.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:28:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:28
larryl
Sharp. Where do you suppose all these new people are coming from . Are there really this many people who have taken a sudden interest in the election. Too many questions to answer so we can't devote time to any one topic which means the undecided will not hear the truth about Pinnochio's agenda . Did you catch any of the TVO. election panel. IT is replayed at 11 . Flanagan would never be on if he was working for Harper so they are using him much more as an outside observer.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:55:15 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:55
Foxer
Sigh. You busted us. We're secretly growing them in our underground Conservative cloning facility, and there's nothing you can do about it Mr Bond!!!!!!
If that doesn't work, we'll get ready for tomorrow night, where we do the same thing we do every night - TRY TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD! Narf!
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:29:51 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:29
I'm with you larryl. There are indeed strangers in the house, and they are nor friendly. Where did they come from? Did you invite them?
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:40:16 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:40
Informed
I dont think our PM is scary, I dont agree with all his policies. Judge his track record as I have voted NDP, and Liberal but this time Tory as his platform will serve working families. The other platforms of $ 35-50 billion in promises is simply pandering and vote buying.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:30:26 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:30
larryl
Informed . Hang around a while and you will be informed. The reason you are not afraid of Pinnochio is because you don't know what his plans are . Harper does not need to make campaign promises since he handed out all the money before the election and spent more in his last budget than any other government in our history. If he included all the goodies in the budget he does not need to make more promises . Examine projected spending and you will see his campaign promises that will bring us back to deficit spending.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:40:35 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:40
Foxer
Almost every gov't spends more than any other govt in history. That's pretty much a given - costs tend to go up.
But really - that's a pretty weak argument considering dion has proposed 80 billion in new spending ON TOP of what the cpc budgeted. And the ndp isn't far behind.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:36:02 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:36
MRM
larryl - OK what are his plans? What is the agenda? Let's hear it. Once again you and your brother sharp are long on rhetoric and short on facts. I also notice that your other brother parnel is being silent. He must have read Nik's most recent poll and since he agrees that Nik is the most accurate pollster the truth has finally sunk in that all of the nonsense he has been saying about his great leader and the master plan is a bunch of garbage.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:08:32 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:08
larryl
MRM..thestar.com/News/Canada/article/271210 has a great article that I found googling your hero Flanagan.
[updated Fri Sep 26 12:43:27 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 12:43
MRM
larryl - First of all the Star is hardly an ubiased source. They are more left wing than the G&M. Secondly the article asserts that Flannagan is actally "a vocal outsider" in the CPC so I do not see how this supports your conspiracy theory?
You are still avoiding any comment about your original claims I see.
[updated Fri Sep 26 18:53:07 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 18:53
larryl
MRM. You keep denying anything I say and now claim even the G & M is left wing . Did you figure out Canoe is a right wing rag and refuse to read any negative articles they have published about Flanagan and his role in Harper's rise to fame. It seems the student has with the power of office decided he doesn't need his mentor any longer and sent him back to Calgary. The Reform party got rid of Flanagan and now Harper wants to do the same thing or this is a very elaborate plan to make people believe Flanagan the Republican is not important to winning this election. I need a reminder of what my original claims were and I will try to answer more clearly so you will understand the info I have provided.
[updated Fri Sep 26 19:20:03 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 19:20
MRM
larryl – I am denying your conspiracy theories because you offer no credible evidence to back any of them up. I do not think that you will find many who will disagree that the G&M is a left wing paper, like the Nat Post is a right wing paper.
You originally and erroneously claimed that Flanagan was Harper’s COS and that he resided in Ottawa. You offered these up as facts to support your conspiracy theory about the mysterious Flanagan , man behind the scenes!
You also still have offered no facts to support your remarks about what Harper’s secret plans are, or the agenda you mentioned? Like I said, long on rhetoric, short on facts.
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:59:04 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 00:59
larryl
MRM."The Civitas Society is a low-key, yet influential, Conservative group with close ties to Mr. Harper. In its last annual report filed with the government, Mr. Harper's chief of staff, Ian Brodie, is listed as a director and Mr. Brodie attended the group's conference yesterday. Tom Flanagan, a longtime friend of Mr. Harper and his campaign manager for the leadership, is a founder of the group and was also there."
This is a paragraph from an article in the Ottawa Citizen. If you you read the whole article which you can find by googling Civitas you will see that not only left wing conspiracies occur. Try looking up Leo Strauss to find facts, not left wing rantings about his teachings which the Calgary School has supplanted into it's philosophy. The people you support are dangerous to our country. Because I believe 911 was planned and orchestrated by Bush and company which more and more Americans also believe does not give you or anyone else evidence that everything I say is just wacko conspiracy theories. There are many scholars , scientists and professionals who believe and can prove the 911 attacks were an inside job but too many like you can never be convinced . How did the supposed terrorists manage to shut down NORAD on that day and why did the director of FEMA arrive in N.Y. the day before the attacks. Just two of so many questions if answered would prove who really was responsible for 911. Back to my original claim. I read in an article from Canoe/News that Flanagan was Harper's chief of staff. I also read that Steve had 5 CSO's while he was opposition leader. I have yet to find out who those 5 were but since you are the expert on Harper maybe you could provide me with that list. Flanagan is in every article I read identified as Harper's closest advisor but, if he is not closest he is definitely included in any list of his top advisors. I doubt that I could find any proof that would be acceptable to you that there is a right wing plot or conspiracy to destroy the Liberal party but you should not need anything to prove that since you would love to see that happen yourself. The Neo-con movement started by Strauss has many followers which includes Flanagan and his star pupil Harper and if you open your eyes you will see how dangerous they really are.
[updated Sat Sep 27 09:13:11 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 09:13
MRM
larryl – There is a lot in your last post on a wide range of issues so I will try to respond to each point but if I miss one I am sure you will let me know (lol):
The Civitas Society – So What? It is a conservative think tank. It does what think tanks do. They discuss and debate issues and offer possible solutions via a written report. The Liberals have think tanks, the NDP have think tanks and so do the Bloc. Not sure about the Greens as there dose not seem to be much thought there at all? Civitas is the short form for the Institute for the Study of Civil Society. It originated in the UK and has branches in the US, UK, Canada, Australia and NZ. They also have a website you might want to check out? So where is the conspiracy?
Leo Strauss – I am quite familiar with the teachings of Strauss and have studied his work so his anti-democracy views are well known to me. I am surprised that you would name someone so anti-liberal as a source but he is hardly the mentor of the LPC? Tieing him to them is just another left wing scare tactic.
911 - If “There are many scholars , scientists and professionals who believe and can prove the 911 attacks were an inside job.” Who are they? Names please? NORAD was never shut down. This is another lie invented in the minds of conspiracy theorists and there is no truth whatsoever to it and they can provide none. So what if the Dir of FEMA was in NY at the time of the attacks? It is the largest state in the Union. Is it inconceivable that he might have business there? This is the typical over active imagination of conspiracy theorists at work. The TRUTH is though that he was actually at the FEMA National HQ in Maryland on the day of the attacks.
Flanagan as Harper’s COS – Like I said Canoe is not a credible source of information. Flanagan was never His COS. I don’t care who the rest were / are. I just know that your statement that Flanagan was is not factual. In what articles is he named as “His closest advisor”? I suspect that it all that left wing conspiracy stuff you must read? Again his top advisors are those in the PMO. Your own source state that Flanagan is “an outsider” in the CPC so don’t you trust your own sources?
Finally there is no conspiracy to “destroy” the LPC. There is a plan though to defeat them in the next election and it seems to be working out quite well so far.
[updated Sat Sep 27 11:02:54 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 11:02
larryl
MRM. Not a scientist or scholar but someone you might believe www.911truth.org/article.php?story=20080515130436575ve. More to come.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:01:57 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:01
larryl
http://www.911sharethetruth.com/images/cards/CR10-huge-back.jpg
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:17:49 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:17
larryl
http://burningbush.netfirms.com/Vidal.html I know you simply claim these are left wing conspiracy theories but even you must acknowledge Gore Vidal might be a credible source.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:21:46 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:21
larryl
MRM. You might have trouble accessing some of these sites since they are routinely removed to prevent people from finding out the truth.There are organizations all over the world trying to find out the truth about 911 and someday we will . If any don't work just google 911 truth movement to find 1.2 million sites that are interested in justice.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:49:48 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:49
MRM
larryl- I think that whomever it was that taught you to use cut and paste created a monster. IMHO here is how it should work though. You cut and paste the specific extracts from those articles as sources to prove your point. If I want to challenge them then I will access them. But simply cutting and pasting a bunch of sites as proof of your arguments is not debating.
[updated Sat Sep 27 17:55:35 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 17:55
larryl
MRM.I can't win . I did not provide any now I provide too much.You might learn something if you read the whole article.I will do my best to try it your way . I tried that earlier with a chart showing when defence budgets started going down but couldn,'t get it to work so I put the website for the National Post and Jonathan Kay as the author. It showed government spending from 1970 to 2007. I am sure you would be interested and would surely find it a credible source.
Jonathan Kay on the funding of Canada's military, 1970-2007
Posted: December 14, 2007, 5:35 PM by Jonathan Kay
Jonathan Kay
[updated Sat Sep 27 18:17:56 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 18:17
larryl
MRM. You need to look at the story about the Liberal candidate in Winnipeg to find the comments on that story
http://www.cbc.ca/news/
canadavotes/
[updated Sat Sep 27 17:39:49 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 17:39
MRM
larryl - I read the story. I agree with you that Dion over reacted. That is another very good reason not to vote for him - he is a bad leader and tends to run on emotion not logic. This move was just a knee jerk reaction to please B'nai Brith.
[updated Sun Sep 28 13:36:59 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 13:36
larryl
MRM." Personally I am MORE offended that she is being deemed an "anti-semite" because she spoke poorly of some jewish companies. This is the kneejerk reaction of Israel to anyone that doesn't support them. She didn't say anything that wasn't true, and once you know some of the things that went on you realize that the WTC tragedy allowed to happen. Rather than discuss her statements, they silence her. My late father was at NORAD on 911, and things were definately not right that day, there was plenty of time to stop what happened, but they were made to stand down AGAINST the training they had received and against the advise of the commanders. Cheney himself thwarted any attempt to stop the attacks." Had to send you this from the comment section of the CBC website. Please read carefully what the young man wrote about his father being in NORAD . It is not a reliable verifiable source but shows I am hardly the only one who has questions about 911. Feel free to read more of the 587 comments that criticize Dion for getting rid of a candidate for simply asking the same questions many of us have. The above comment was posted at 10;52 and can be found on page 11 or 12 which are listed in order of most recent.
[updated Sat Sep 27 17:23:56 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 17:23
MRM
larryl - I know many people who were at Cheyenne Mountain and in the AWACs controlling the fighters and airspace on 911 and they all tell me that no order to stand down was given and at no time did they ever stand down. I have no doubt that you are not the only one who believes that there was a conspiracy as we have never been short of conspiracay theorists.
For interest sake what exactly do you assert happened? Was it a Jewish Conspiracy? If it was how come they were all Muslims and that Bush was accused of protecting the Bin Laden family in the hours after the attack. What is your version of what really happened?
[updated Sat Sep 27 18:03:32 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 18:03
larryl
MRM. Was trying to give you my account of what happened when for some strange reason my computer erased my post. I will try again but going out for dinner so it will have to wait. Sorry.
[updated Sat Sep 27 18:52:40 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 18:52
larryl
MRM. Please ask your friends if it is possible to fly a plane by computer.If NORAD was told that there was a test planned for 9 11 no order to stand down would have been necessary. Four pilots who believed their flights were involved in a test would have sat in their cockpits waiting for the test to end. The manoevers those planes made on that day would have required an experienced pilot with many years experience but a bunch of incompetent student pilots who could hardly fly a Cesna supposedly flew jumbo jets at 500 miles an hour and hit two buildings. Professional pilots use computers to land at airports and they are going in a straight line and slowing down. How could those idiots hit buildings at those speeds. They were not military aircraft that are much easier to pilot. How many of your friends think they could have pulled off the aerobatics performed on that day. Four Cd's delivered to the pilots of those planes programed to take over control of those flights including radio communication would have been all that was required to accomplish their goals, No huge Jewish conspiracy. Just a simple plan by a bunch of war mongers who have made billions since the attacks .The brother of the president was head of security at the WTC until 9 10 . If you were told you were preparing a building for implosion but the public was not allowed to know for fear of it would cause panic and then found out you had just killed 3000 people would you come forward and confess . Or if you believed the buildings would be vacant when the demolition occured would it make it easier to get a demolish crew to rig the building with explosives. It could of course have been a Mossad operation that you asked about and they would have no qualms killing a bunch of Americans if it meant protecting Israel from destruction by Palestinian or Muslim terrorists. The truth movement has engineers ,university professors and other professionals who can show that a building designed as those were would never collapse because of fire.It had never happened before and will never happen again . Finally why was all the rubble shipped away without any forensic examination? It was the biggest crime scene in history.
[updated Sat Sep 27 22:24:37 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 22:24
MRM
Larryl – So if I get you right you are saying that the planes were programmed to be remotely piloted. At some point someone (the fighter pilots maybe?) took over remote control of the planes and crashed them into the buildings. This was done by the US govt and military in order to manufacture an excuse to attack Iraq. Does this about sum it up? If not please correct me. I just want to be sure of what you are saying before I respond.
[updated Sun Sep 28 13:43:34 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 13:43
larryl
MRM. The planes were not remotely piloted . The computer on the planes had complete control. What flies a plane when it is on auto pilot.?There are signals transmitted from airports that planes use to navigate their course. When those planes got close enough to the WTC a signal could have been turned on and the computer could have flown the aircraft directly toward that signal. I don't know if this is what happened but I think the technology was available to make it happen. Your friends in the military know if this scenario could have occured. I do know that in 2001 very few if any planes were equipped with the equipment needed to allow cell phone calls from a plane flying at 25 to 30 thousand feet at 500 miles an hour. I think it was American airlines in 2004 who made a big deal out of putting planes into service that allowed for cell phone use on their flights. How did people who supposedly made calls do that if the technology was not in use. There are far too many questions that are still unanswered. Asking for answers should be promoted not ridiculed The biggest mystery might be WTC 7. No direct hit from a plane but collapsed into its own footprint just like a controlled demolishion ? Fires do not, or at least never before that day, cause buildings to collapse
[updated Sun Sep 28 14:13:23 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 14:13
MRM
larryl – Ok your scenario has few gaping holes in it:
If the signal was transmitted from the airport and the plane flew directly toward it how did it get the WTC?
Cell phone technology was certainly well advanced in 2001 and in routine use aboard planes.
There were multiple communications from all four flights to multiple people telling them that hijackers had taken over the planes, including from the hijackers themselves. These communications were to family members, friends, 911 operators, airport tower etc... and all over the country.
The pilots could see what was happening in the planes and their conversation with NORAD and is taped.
The passengers tried to stop the hijackers on flight 93 when friends and families told them via cell phone what had happened on the other flights and as a result stopped the plane from reaching its planned target. There are voice recordings of the passengers and terrorists struggling and taped cell phone conversations of passengers and loved ones seconds before this occurred.
I could go on because there is lots of other evidence. Are you saying all of this was faked? If you are then it would be the biggest conspiracy in the history of mankind involving all three levels of govt, the military and thousands of family members that would have to be in on it and be willing to say nothing about the circumstances of the deaths of their loved ones. I should also point out that it is quite likely that the relatives of the victims would find even this discussion distasteful and hurtful.
So is it technologically possible to do what you are asserting. Yes. Is it practically even remotely within the realm of possibility. Not a chance.
You have still not named any of the scholars and academics who are advocating this scenario?
[updated Sun Sep 28 14:36:34 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 14:36
larryl
MRM. The devices used to transmit the signal were not at the airport . They were planted in the WTC at the same time the building was rigged for demolition. There were supposedly calls made from 3 of the 4 flights but they were made from phones on the planes . Do you think the hijackers would have allowed people to make those calls ? Why did American Airlines make a big announcement in 2004 if as you say the technology was widely available in 01. Flight 93 exploded in flight which can be proven since debris was scattered over an 8 mile radius . How does a plane hit the ground and fly that far. Not one piece of that plane was found at the crash site. You did not mention WTC 7 and no one can explain why that building imploded. Michael M. Andregg (FM)
Domestic intelligence, Justice and Peace Studies, St. Thomas University, St. Paul, MN
Mark Bamberger, Ph.D. (FM)
Professor of Geology and Environmental Sciences, Miami University and Capital University
Kevin Barrett (FM)
Folklore, UW-Madison; Director, Khidria, Inc.; Founding Member, Muslim-Jewish-Christian Alliance for 9/11 Truth, mujca.com
Philip J. Berg, Esq. (FM)
Attorney at Law, Former Deputy Attorney General, former candidate for Governor, Lt. Governor, and U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania, whose website, 911forthetruth.com, covers the RICO lawsuit that is pending against Bush, Cheney and 53 other Defendantsin Federal Court, Southern District of New York
Tracy Blevins (FM)
Bioengineering, Rice University
Robert M. Bowman (FM)
Former Director of the U.S. "Star Wars" Space Defense Programin both Republican and Democratic administrations, and a former Air ForceLieutenant Colonel with 101 combat missions
Robert S. Boyer (FM)
Philosophy; Mathematics; Computer Science; University of Texas,Austin
Clare Brandabur (FM)
Assistant Professor of English Literature at Dogus University in Istanbul
Joseph G. Buchman, Ph.D. (FM)
Associate Professor of Marketing, Adams State College
Andreas von Buelow (FM)
Former assistant German defense minister, director of the GermanSecret Service, minister for research and technology, and member of Parliamentfor 25 years
Don Bustion (FM)
Attorney, Adjunct Professor, Southern Arkansas University
John Bylsma (FM)
French language and culture
William A. Cook (FM)
Professor of English, University of La Verne, Author of "Tracking Deception: Bush Mid-East Policy"
Richard Curtis (FM)
Dr. Curtis is an Adjunct Professor of Philosophy at several Seattle area colleges.
Joseph Diaferia (FM)
Political Science and History, State University and City University,New York
Albert Dragstedt (FM)
Classics and Philosophy, St. Mary's College, Oakland, CA
Mike Earl-Taylor (FM)
Criminal Profiling, Investigative and Forensic Psychology,Rhodes University, South Africa
Ted Elden (FM)
Architect, Communicator
Constance Eichenlaub (FM)
Classical Languages
Comparative Literature
James H. Fetzer (FM)
Distinguished McKnight University Professor of Philosophy at the University of Minnesota, Duluth, a former Marine Corps officer, author or editor of more than 20 books, and founder of Scholars for 9/11 Truth
Marcus Ford (FM)
Humanities, NAU
Ruth Frankenberg (FM)
American Studies, Cultural Studies, Author of four books
Paul D. Haemig, Ph.D. (FM)
Department of Biology and Environment, Kalmar University, Sweden
Bill Hammel (FM)
Ph.D. Physics at U. Wisconsin, Milwaukee (ret.)
Bruce R. Henry (FM)
Mathematics, Worcester State College
James Hill (FM)
Intellectual property attorney, Radiology, USC School of Medicine
Jim Hogue (FM)
MS Theatre, Taught at Community College of Vermont
Robert G. Horn (FM)
Former full-time faculty Department of Pathology, at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Charles Hux (FM)
Associate Professor, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School
Don "Four Arrows" Jacobs (FM)
Former Dean of Education, Oglala Lakota College and currently professor of educational leadership at Fielding Graduate University and at Northe
You asked for names. These are some you could find by googling
Scholars For 911 Truth. I stopped before reaching the bottom of the list. They are mostly Americans. I don't know if Ron Paul fits into this category but he ran for the Republican nomination so he is definitely a truth seeker.
[updated Sun Sep 28 15:11:22 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 15:11
MRM
PART ONE
larryl – Where were you in 2001? You must remember that cell phones were in wide use at that time? In fact the use of a hand held cell phone on a flight was blamed for causing the crash of CrossAir flt 498 the year before. I don’t need to research that, I lived it.
The WTC did not “implode”, it collapsed. So what are you saying that demolitions were planted in the buildings? A media report the day of crash 93 citing an eye witness:
The plane crashed into a reclaimed coal strip mine in Stonycreek Township at 10:03:11. The National Transportation Safety Board reported that the flight impacted at 563 miles per hour (906 km/h) at a 40 degree nose-down, inverted attitude. The impact left a crater eight to ten feet deep, and thirty to fifty feet wide. None of the 44 people on board survived. Many media reports and eyewitness accounts cited the time of the crash at 10:06, as did an analysis of seismographic data in the area but which the 9/11 Commission report states was not definitive. Other media venues and the 9/11 Commission reported the time of impact as 10:03, based on when the flight recorders stopped, analysis of radar data, infrared satellite data, and air traffic control transmissions.
[updated Sun Sep 28 17:08:47 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 17:08
MRM
PART TWO
Kelly Leverknight was watching news of the attacks when she heard the plane. "I heard the plane going over and I went out the front door and I saw the plane going down. It was headed toward the school, which panicked me, because all three of my kids were there. Then you heard the explosion and felt the blast and saw the fire and smoke." Another witness, Eric Peterson, looked up when he heard the plane, "It was low enough, I thought you could probably count the rivets. You could see more of the roof of the plane than you could the belly. It was on its side. There was a great explosion and you could see the flames. It was a massive, massive explosion. Flames and then smoke and then a massive, massive mushroom cloud." Val McClatchey had been watching footage of the attacks when she heard the plane. She saw it briefly, then heard the impact. The crash knocked out the electricity and phones. McClatchey grabbed her camera and took the only known picture of the smoke cloud from the explosion.
Following the release of the photo conspiracy theorists actually accused her of manufacturing the photograph because it did not fit their version of events. This is now passed the line of being ridiculous. I checked the website you cited and each of these people has their own conspiracy theory. None of them agree on what happened. They are all over the place and each theory has holes in them big enough to fly a Boeing through. All they do is make allegations but offer no real proof. Like when I asked you about certain aspects in my last post, you did not answer them you just went on to the next part of the conspiracy theory.
Obviously I will not convince you that this is all nonsense and I can guarantee you that you will NEVER convince me that it happened so let’s just get back to the election. Perhaps some of your left wing friends will agree with you on this but I doubt even that. Why not ask them?
Hey rsharp, TPQ what say you guys?
[updated Sun Sep 28 17:09:10 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 17:09
larryl
MRM. Was the list of scholars long enough . There was another three pages of names of engineers , university professors , engineers and other well educated professionals. "While serious doubts regarding the cell calls were expressed in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, a new landmark in the wireless telecom industry has further contributed to upsetting the Commission's credibility. Within days of the release of the 9/11 Commission Report in July, American Airlines and Qualcomm, proudly announced the development of a new wireless technology --which will at some future date allow airline passengers using their cell phones to contact family and friends from a commercial aircraft (no doubt at a special rate aerial roaming charge)"
"In this new and expanded edition of Michel Chossudovsky's 2002 best seller, the author blows away the smokescreen put up by the mainstream media, that 9/11 was an attack on America by "Islamic terrorists". Through meticulous research, the author uncovers a military-intelligence ploy behind the September 11 attacks, and the cover-up and complicity of key members of the Bush Administration."
[updated Sun Sep 28 19:02:13 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 19:02
Thank you for inviting me in. I don't know about this one. Who does? The American, British and Israeli spooks have been up to no good for a long time, with very little oversight.
I do believe that they knew Pearl Harbor was coming and held back for the precise purpose of getting the US into the war. I do believe JFK's assassination was the result of some combination of the Mafia, the Cubans and the Soviets. I do believe that Mossad (Israeli secret police) have murdered and created havoc among more countries and people than you or I can even imagine. Including in their most precious supporter, the USA.
The other side is inhumane too. But, are we to stoop to their levels?
[updated Sun Sep 28 19:14:14 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 19:14
larryl
Sharp. It was meant for MRM but happy to get your input . He has been asking for names of scholars and scientists who don't believe the official story about 911. There are many and they have set up a website. Scholars For 911 Truth will someday get to the facts about Bush/Cheney complicity in the attacks. If the S.E.C.releases info on who made millions on put options on Sept. 10th we would have all the proof needed .As for JFK , he was about to take control of the Federal Reserve which you probably know is a private bank that controls creating money in the U.S. Of course LBJ was involved since he believed he should have been the Democratic nominee and Joe Kennedy stole it from him by stuffing ballot boxes. Pearl Harbor was the 911 of 1941. The attack on Pearl occured on a Sunday so the casualties would be limited as the sailors were on shore leave. Ever wonder how the Japanese fleet got back home with no retalliation from the allies at Midway and other Pacfic islands.The WTC had about 20% of its normal occupants on that day and again casualties were low.
[updated Sun Sep 28 20:13:16 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 20:13
MRM
larryl - having a degree or being a professional does not make one a scholar, even if they do call themselves one, nor does it, it seems, preclude one from being a conspiracy theorist. That does not change the fact that none of the assertions can be proven. The most telling fact that makes one doubt their credibility is the assertion that cell phone technology would not allow one to make a call form an airplane in 2001! Anyone who is old enough to remember 2001 and flew on an airplane will know right away to be suspicious of anything else these nuts say. There assertions far transcend the utterly ridiculous and if as a professional they wish to put their names beside these bizarre fantasies then all they will accomplish is the ruination of whatever credibility they may have had.
You actually expect us to believe that the dozens of calls made to family members were faked? I think that these people knew who there loved ones were. That in itself is enough to show that these people are a bunch of kooks.
Anyway this is just way to asinine a discussion for me. Back on to politics please.
BTW I see that your blogging buddies are avoiding this topic like the plague. Smart move on their part.
[updated Sun Sep 28 19:32:35 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 19:32
MRM
larryl or rsharp - How about explaining some of the questions I have posed on the subject? Like how and why all the family members would lie if the calls were faked? For instance how you would get a mother to lie and say that she talked to and said goodbye to her daughter and grand daughter on her cell phone minutes before the planes hit? I know Americans are patriotic and would go a long way to support their govt but that is a bit much to believe don't you think?
Or the eye witnesses that saw flight 93 hit the ground?
Or the communications between the terrorists and the control tower if the planes were remote controlled?
There are lots more but let's start with these.
I think that the website you quote should rename itself magnet4kooks.com
[updated Sun Sep 28 20:45:33 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 20:45
Referring to a human being as a cartoon character is demeaning and does not assist your point about his policies or his "hidden" agenda.
Larry you state"If he included all the goodies in the budget he does not need to make more promises . Examine projected spending and you will see his campaign promises that will bring us back to deficit spending."
Than explain what alternative party platform is addressing the deficit. I think every opposition party is projecting $ 30-50 Billion is spending promises.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:39:45 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:39
larryl
Informed. You are right . I should not insult Pinnochio . He was a great cartoon character and does not deserve to be included in the same sentence with Harper. I am sure you know politicians say many things during a campaign. They find excuses to not fulfill their promises so I doubt we have to worry about what the cost will be. If the Bank of Canada can find ten billion to bail out the U.S. economy I am sure they can find money to pay for some of the promises made. They might even find some extra to pay for the phony national debt.
[updated Fri Sep 26 12:51:36 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 12:51
Foxer
Rsharp - nobody buys the whole 'scary harper' routine any more. It's not credible. It's pretty obvious that harper isn't mean or vindictive or anything like that. And it's pretty obvious he's been moving us forward.
Since he showed up seperatist sentiment is down. People have hope we'll ride thru the rougher economic times ahead, which Harper talked about openly and honestly before any of the other parties mentioned it. He talks straight and he doesn't flip flop every week like dion. He gets stuff done.
Most canadians see that - and will say so at the polls on voting day. It's looking like it'll probably be a majority. And we'll finally have a little bit of leadership in this country.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:08:33 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:08
Foxer, "Nobody buys the whole 'scary' Harper routine any more.'? Nobody? That's a bit of a mistruth, n'est-de pas?
Harper isn't mean and vindictive? If you are a political opponent, yes he is and his attack ads prove it. If you are a public servant questioning his direction, yes he is, and his firings and budget cuts prove it. If you are even a Tory Minister or MP, you do what you're told or your out the door.
Now, in terms of Harper moving us forward, in what may? Financially? No. Keeping the peace? No. Social justice, the environment? No.
Oh wait, he did cut the GST and, as its a regressive tax, I totally agree. But life sentences fgor 14 year oolds?
If Harper gets his majority, look out. Scary means:
. privatize anything in site, such as the CBC and the post office
. deregulate anything in sight, food safety, labour rights, consumer protection, competion laws, environmental protection
. emasculate the wheat board and, for that matter, the human rights, privacy, official languages and access to information commissions
. buy more useless (and almost immediately outmoded) war-making machinesd and systems
. agree with virtually any American "war on terror" initiative, whether attacking and killing others in foreign lands or rolling back our own rights and freedoms here at home
. cut funding for the disadvantaged, the arts culture and any citizen group fighting for a fairer Canada.
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:13:44 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 20:13
Foxer
ROFL - his attack ads prove it? PLEASE!!!!!! - Dion has been hardcore badmouthing harper FAR more than harper has been badmouthing him! And layton's no better.
"not a leader" hardly stacks up to "liar" and "Incompetant" and "pig in a sweater" and all the other comments.
And canning civil servants who can't do their job isn't 'mean spirited' - it's good management. Don't want to get fired? Do your job.
Financially we have moved much farther forward. A serious reduction in tax, including the gst which (despite the naysayers and dion) has helped stimulate spending and the economy in canada which has meant that while the world is in recession, we're actually not doing that bad and just suffering a slow down.
Our banking markets are no where near as extended, harper killed 'no down payment' mortgages.
In keeping the peace he upgraded our soldiers equipment which the liberals sent them with - itlis jeeps older than the boys driving them and highly susceptible to bombs. That has helped keep our boys alive on the combat mission the libs sent them on. I'd say that's a good thing.
Social justice - you better believe it. Manditory minimums for very violent criminals - changes to the dangerous offender act - no 20 year olds having sex with 14 year olds - all pretty positive changes. It's time the victims got a little justice instead of just the criminals.
And emissions are down under the CPC - they were up 20 percent under the libs. That's an improvement as well.
And the 'life sentance' for 14 year olds is still at a judges discretion. It's just an increase in the maximum. So - if the 14 year old doesn't deserve it he won't get it. But a 17 year old who slaughters people with an axe in cold blood or drags a kid 2 blocks screaming under his car for 50 bucks worth of fuel may find he's going away for more than the 5 or so years they serve now for murder.
Now - lets look at the dishonest things you claimed -
1 - there is no plan to privatize the cbc or post office. Nice try.
2 - He's actually adding regulation to many things, and giving existing regulation more teeth. What good was it to have environmental laws where the punishment was cheaper than breaking the law was? Now they'll actually pay.
3 - if the wheat board is SO good - how come it doesn't apply to ontario and quebec farmers? All he'll give people is a choice. And that's a GOOD thing - giving power back to the people. And which human rights is he threatening exactly? What a load of crap that is.
4 - you mean like cargo planes to help ferry supplies to villiages? Or helecopters that don't fall out of the air so our peacekeepers dont' get killed? How aweful.
5 - It wasn't harper who sent us to afghanistan - it was the liberals. And it was the liberals who voted to stay. So that's a load of garbage.
6 - he's actually increased funding for the arts and transfer payments to the provinces (who are the ones who pay for the disadvantaged). So again - a lie.
Dion on the other hand WILL destroy the economy - go after the 5 million hunters we have in canada just because he doesn't like them - And do absolutely nothing for the environment (which is what he did when he was environment minister).
Seriously - the fear mongering and lies don't wash any more. Which is why dion's 24 in the polls and harper is 39.
[updated Fri Sep 26 21:29:26 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 21:29
Thank you for calling me a liar, I am getting used to it on this site. I must admit I feel lonely..But those who deny the truth like you will never do me in.
I've been watching the Obama/McCain debate. The latter is doing quite better than I expected and Harper might do as well when he blesses our TV screens next week. But only if we buy is one-liners.
1. You seem to believe that Mr. Harper has not attacked Mr. Dion's character for 2.5 years, on TV, in the House and everywhere else. This belief makes you totally incredible.
2. You agree with Mr. Harper firing any civil servant who disagrees with him.. That makes you anti free-speech and anti-democratic.
3. You believe in beefing up our military to fight (American) wars, throwing out a 50-year record of peace-keeping. This speaks for itself.
4. You believe Dion is after hunters when, clear as day, he is after violent criminals.
Don't for a minute try to tell me that Harper would properly regulate corporate Canada (that would be mostly American, actually). Food safety? Environmental and consumer protection? Workers' rights? Not for one f'in minute.
This guy is an ideologue who isn't bothered in the slightest by the facts. He is dangerous.
Let me repeat that. Dangerous.
Oh, and again, please don't come back at me blaming it all on the Liberals. I'm so tired of your tired arguments.
[updated Fri Sep 26 22:28:36 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 22:28
Foxer
I should imagine you're used to it quite a bit, if you get out at all.
The only one in denial is you. Lets take a look.
1 - YOU seem to believe that the libearls, INCLUDING dion, haven't attacked harper since he formed his party. It's been nothing but attack ads. In our cities. In canada. We're not making this up.
IN fact - Martin was far worse than harper has EVER been. And Dion started talking trash about the CPC once he got in. Harper says dion is not a leader. Well you know what - that's a fair call. He's not slagging the guy - he's pointing out a legitimate issue with Dion's style. He's not saying "dion is a bad person", he's saying he's not a leader. "Pig in a vest" is pretty much a personal attack in comparison.
2 - you insist anyone who's fired for cause is actually fired for 'disagreeing'. Which is crapola grande. Incompetant people should be fired - i realize liberals keep them in power to do 'favours' for them, but just because someone is fired doesn't mean there wasn't a good reason or that it wasn't the right thing to do
3 - Your belief that we should allow our soldiers to be blown up fighting a war the liberals got us into is just plain sick. The liberals sent us to afghanistan. The liberals sent us to kandahar. The liberals did this with gear so old that our people were dying.
That's the liberal record on 'peacekeeping'.
4 - Clear as day he's after hunters. We're quite aware of that. I've read over his 'outline' of supposed criteria for 'military guns' - half of them apply to hunting rifles commonly in use. Oh - he'll LIE about it, sure. Just like the gun registry was only going to cost 2 million. But this is no different than when he tried to ban semi autos claiming to be after criminals - despite the fact almost every hunter owns at least one semi auto.
5 - as to your little tirade about 'corporate canada' - it was the LIBERALS who did favours for big business in exchange for illegal money. It's the LIBERALS who got ALL their donations from big business, and now that they aren't allowed to can't raise enough money to pay the bills. It's the LIBERALS who refused to enforce environmental law. It's the LIBERALS who failed to implement kyoto. It's the LIBERALS who ignored a 2005 report on food safety.
Not the conservatives - the liberals.
And the only ideologue who's not bothered by facts around here is you.
Let me repeat - Harper is the only safe, sane, sensible choice. Dion is an idiot who would drive this country into recession if we're lucky, depression if we're not.
Dion is a hypocrite of the worst kind - calling harper a liar one day and then crying like a baby if harper says anything back the next. The man is spineless and has no eithics.
Which is why he's losing. Nobody believes him.
[updated Fri Sep 26 22:41:26 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 22:41
Foxer, you repulse me, but that's only my opinion. You are so blind of the facts and common sense that I wonder why I waste my time with you. You call Mr. Dion an idiot, a hypocrite, etc. That says it all.
Get lost, my friend, as your friend McCain might say.
Get lost.
[updated Fri Sep 26 22:50:19 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 22:50
Foxer
LOL - it's very liberal of you to insult me and then complain that someone insulted dion. heh :) I guess THAT says it all about you, and your hypocracy
Get shifted, as your disastrous leader might say. :)
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:44:31 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 00:44
Foxer, you hit the head on the nail.
Vote Conservative, Vote Stephen Harper!
Tory101
[updated Sat Sep 27 08:07:48 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 08:07
Hey buddy, you want Stephane Dion or Layton .They will set us back a century with their stupid carbon tax (liberals) and their lies (both)
Conservative all the way.
Harper rules
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:13:24 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:13
You look good, Tory 101. Wait, that's a picture of Mr. Harper.
[updated Fri Sep 26 20:19:16 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 20:19
Ha. I can't believe you would want Dion, May, Duceppe, or Layton to run our country. They are all dumb, politically inept, left sided, stupid politicans. Can you stop insulting people, thanks. When did a blog become a private converstation genius? It is not a private conversation.
Vote Conservative, Vote Stephen Harper!
[updated Sat Sep 27 08:05:55 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 08:05
LEDA
Harper is the best man for PM in decades and a leader we need.
Dion is decent but not a leader.
You are blinded by partisanship.
[updated Sat Sep 27 04:08:37 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 04:08
larryl
leda. What in your opinion makes a good leader? Could it be his ironfisted approach that he makes every decision? Maybe his complete control of every minister's actions and words ?. Please tell me it is not his former character portrayal as this emotionless humourless image that has suddenly changed to to this warm friendly father figure . Which image do you think is the real Steve? Even his name is fabricated . When he ran for office the first time he was Steve Harper but now has become this sophisticated statesman STEPHEN. The man is as fake as a three dollar bill and you have bought the whole package hook line and sinker. Have you actually read any of his idealogy? He is going to lead us right into becoming part of the U.S. so maybe you are right about him being a great leader if that is where you want to be led.
[updated Sat Sep 27 09:48:43 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 09:48
Mr_Michael
Nik,
Do your numbers for GTA show if the Conservatives have made any significant in roads into breaking the Liberal strangle hold on the GTA.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:33:38 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:33
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lori
Hi Nick. Wondering about the large proportion of undecided/unsure in the Leadership Index questions. Do you screen out respondents who indicate they have no intention of voting. There are many Canadians (unfortunately) that are apathetic to our political process and if they are not even interested in voting, will likely have no real opinion on the competence, trustworthiness and vision of the leaders.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:35:14 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:35
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Luc VNO
Nik,
What kind of situation do you think it would take to move the non-voting 40% of Canadians to the ballot box??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:36:13 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:36
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
Maybe voting should be compulsory like in New Zealand. Which Parties would benefit from such a move?
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:30:44 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:30
Foxer
which party would benefit? Whichever ones DIDN'T support the law in the first place :)
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:16:32 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:16
I dont think we should encourage non-voters to vote simply to make us feel better. A large number of Canadians simply vote without understanding the policies or platforms. Blind party loyalty and vote buying of special interest groups is not great system to provide us with a better government. We need to hold government, parties in parliment and us accountable for this negative trend.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:48:45 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:48
Chris, Ontario,
What are the key battlegrounds around the GTA and what are the numbers for Oakville-Burlington Regions Nik.
Thanks!
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:36:56 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:36
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Informed
Bonnie Brown won by 700 Votes and the vote was split so Young should win this time.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:27:05 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:27
Luc VNO
Nik,
What kind of situation do you think it would take to move the non voting 40% of Canadians to the ballot box??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:37:47 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:37
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Reasearch studies of why people don't vote must exist already and I'm confident each party uses the information to target those demographics accordingly.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:51:22 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:51
mcfly
What do you think the election would be like with a publication ban on polls?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:41:49 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:41
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
Generally voters like polling numbers that show their Party leading and discredit those polls that don't.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:32:14 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:32
larryl
Mcfly. If You are watching the National on CBC they just asked the same question.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:43:43 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:43
spstarr
Hi Nik,
As an addition to a previous question. If you identify yourself as Nanos in the survey, is it possible some people might try to cause a skew in your poll vs other polls by giving different answers to somewhat influence other people when they see the Nanos poll results?
Thanks,
Shawn.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:43:05 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:43
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Interesting question, I dont think that % would change the poll numbers.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:53:10 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:53
spstarr
Well, I agree it's not likely to amount to much at all. But as the Nanos poll gets more and more known (and I see it being mentioned more in papers and online), the avg joe isn't likely to care enough and there's not enough political junkie out there. You could call it 'strategic polling'. Since some polling results appear very bias in their outcome. Nano's poll is non-bias.
[updated Fri Sep 26 11:38:45 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 11:38
skoblin
Nik,
considering the large majorities the Liberals had in their ridings in Montreal in the last election, is there a realistic chance of the NDP actually translating their apparent support in Montreal into actual victories, and if so, which ridings do you see this happening in?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:43:23 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:43
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Cousinj
Hi Nik,
Will Nanos do a poll on which television station voters watch during the election campaign or on election night?
Thanks,
JM
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:45:37 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:45
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
John999
How do the 2 of you remain neutral and unbiased about your personal party preferences when presenting the news and statistics?
Is this sometimes difficult for you?
What kind of requirements were put upon you when you were hired for CPAC?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:47:20 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:47
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
goles
Hi Nik, Great show.
It seems there is a tendency for the parties to rely on one of two policy levers (i.e., spending vs regulation/legislation) in their daily annoucements. The Liberal and NDP seem to emphasize spending while the Conservatives seem to emphasize regulations/legislation (e.g., pollution penalties, prison sentences). In an economic uncertain time do you think that this is having an impact on voters impressions?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:51:45 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:51
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
I think so, working families are being squeezed from all levels of government and every time I hear more money being promised to another "special" interest group, I cringe.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:55:48 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:55
Lori
Nik - do you have any sense of how conflicted people may be when their local representative is not affiliated with the same party of the leader they feel is best suited to run the country? Clearly people rank Harper as the strongest leader yet, particularly in areas like SW Ontario, we like our local Liberal incumbents.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:54:34 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:54
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Lori. Tell anyone who doesn't like the leader but likes the party they have the power to get rid of the leader by forcing him to resign. It is quite possible Dion will not win his riding and just might be forced to resign if he doesn't.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:43:02 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:43
Foxer
You got it backwards - she likes harper but prefers her liberal candidate.
The answer to that lori is actually almost the same - join the CPC party and vote for your candidate next election. Remember - the people in the ridings choose who will represent the riding for that party. You can have a hand in that process and it's often ignored by the average voter. Democracy doesn't just happen at the general election ballot box.
That'll help you pick a candidate you like that matches the leader you prefer.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:19:45 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:19
larryl
lori. Do you actually like Harper or would you have no problem making a decision if the Liberals had a better a different leader?When asked to choose which of the five is a better leader one might pick the dictator who has been forced to make all the decisions since he has no help in his cabinet.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:28:00 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:28
Lori
You raise a good point. Of the current leaders, I prefer Harper, but if there were a different Liberal leader I would not even have asked this question.
[updated Fri Sep 26 08:31:14 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 08:31
Foxer
There are many liberals who are seriously questioning the method of using the delegate system to select a leader.
The delegate system is not a terribly good way to pick a leader - the people actually get virtually no choice in their leader. The delegates are bound to vote for whom they promised in the first round but after that can vote for whomever they like. That leads to a lot of 'back room deals'.
I think the liberal party is going to spend a little time re-inventing itself, especially if harper gets a majority. One of the things liberal supporters should push for is reform in the leadership selection process. The CPC doesn't use a delegate system, the party members vote directly for the leader.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:44:53 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:44
larryl
lori. Elect a candidate and make sure your feelings are heard and if enough people demand his resignation he would be forced to resign. Candidates are suppose to work for you and if they won't don't vote for them.
[updated Fri Sep 26 12:01:19 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 12:01
I always voted for the best person to represent our riding. That meant NDP, Liberal, Independent and now Tory. The question is did your MP ever vote for/against a policy on principle? Will your MP stand up and sit as an independent if they vote on an issue against their party? An example Bob Rae, a MP from Northern Ontario (who got booted) also few others voted against Liberals in parliment on a bill he believed in. The over riding decision should be is your MP representing your riding's interests or the party blindly.
[updated Fri Sep 26 11:04:03 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 11:04
much
Nik,
Why are the Bloc not being considered as traitors?
Thx
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:58:59 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:58
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Craig
Personally, I think the Bloc has moved away from soverignty issues (for good reason). They do provide a legitimate voice for Quebec, misguided as it is, but they do try.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:27:33 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:27
larryl
Much. Quebecers have been there for 400 years so who are they traitors to? That is just in Quebec city and even longer in other places like Louisbourg. Maybe they should be considered traitors if they don't fight for themselves.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:39:22 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:39
Luc VNO
Louisbourg, just for the record is an Acadian city, not Quebec. Sadly, my own country doesn't even know who my people are, but we have been here the longest, longer than Quebec by just a few years. We are truly the most invisible minority in Canada.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:55:13 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:55
larryl
Luc . I have been there and it is not in Quebec but it was the French who settled there first. My reference was to the people who have stood up for themselves since the British took over and deported so many . They have stuck together and are not considered traitors by people like Much who asked the above question. Quebecers and Acadians are patriots since they believe in their roots. I noticed you did not refer to Louisbourg as a Nova Scotia city as it is not in New Scotland .
[updated Fri Sep 26 08:03:01 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 08:03
In Canada we have Municipal and Provincial elected officials to represent those issues. In our Federal system we can elect any party in any region it is up to the voters in that region to send the candidates to represent their interests to Ottawa. We dont have to like or agree with the policies but the citizens know best in our democracy. So either way a Liberal or Tory government will be governing. The majority of Canadians will have voted for their choice government. Regional/Fringe parties like the Bloc, NDP, Green, etc represent a % not supporting either Lib/Tory platform thats it.
[updated Fri Sep 26 11:14:28 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 11:14
Informed
Clearly Stephen Harper he is speaking about real issues and making small spending programs announcements while talking about the slowing economy. He is dominating the centre and right position while the other parties are fighting over the left of centre voters.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:25:31 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:25
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
True. The CPC seems to have become the 'neo-liberals' so to speak. Harper has moved the party mostly to the center.
Dion moved his party to the left, away from the center. And the simple fact is most canadians are not really left wing.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:12:23 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:12
19.8 billion in new spending by the Con-clones is small ?
Hardy-har-har .
You are delusional .
[updated Tue Sep 30 15:48:22 -0400 2008]
30 Sep 15:48
a_peters93
These polling numbers seem to be jumping around a lot in the early going of this election. Do polling numbers tend to settle out after the leaders debate or do they settle out at all? And secondly, the Prime Minister has stated during his election campaign that he refuses to speculate on current polls as every poll he has seen as a federal politican has never accurately translated to the makeup of the elected house. Does the Prime Minister's statement accurate reflect what you have seen in your polling results over the years?
[updated Fri Sep 26 03:33:58 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 03:33
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
First off ap, you need to remember there's a plus OR minus 3 point margin of error in the polls. Even if voters remained rock solid, the numbers would jump a little.
I think there's always a little movement in the polls tho. People humm and haw right up till election day. But after the debates people start to make more solid decisions and stick with it.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:14:33 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:14
The Polls can be wrong. Parties do polling. Strategically it makes no sense to admit defeat or no chance of winning in an election. Layton as ZERO opportunity of ever becoming the Prime Minister in this election. So is he lying or is he strategically trying to secure enough seats to grow his party from 30 seats and pick up more protest votes? Harper/Dion/Layton are doing their own polls they know what ridings they can help push. We call it politics or spin but strategically they wont comment on polls unless it helps them to further their spin.
[updated Fri Sep 26 11:20:05 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 11:20
MRM
Some extracts from a very interesting article in today’s G&M:
Globe and Mail Update
September 25, 2008 at 9:55 PM EDT
How damaging is it when members of your party begin to publicly turn on you, as is happening to Stephane Dion? And what can Mr. Dion do about it?
Greg Lyle (former chief of staff for premiers Gary Filmon and Gordon Campbell) It is never helpful to have your own party members voicing criticism. It is downright devastating to be criticized by your own team at a time when people outside the party are criticizing you as well.
Scott Reid (former communications director for Paul Martin): No campaign wants to take on friendly fire. It's distracting. It's unhelpful. And it's not a sign of success. But the question of how seriously it should be regarded depends upon two factors: How serious are the voices speaking out, and how serious are their criticisms?
Gerald Caplan (former NDP campaign manager): As I'm sure everyone concedes, the milk of human compassion flows through the veins of all socialists. So part of me really, really feels for Stephane Dion's public humiliation. Under his stewardship, Canada's Natural Governing Party seems well on the road to the worst result in its history. John Turner plummeted to 28 per cent in 1984. The core Liberal vote is usually deemed to be about 30 per cent. As of this moment, Mr. Dion will be lucky to get much above 25 per cent.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:20:05 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:20
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Another article today pointing out liberals are already talking about who the new leader should be. That can't be inspiring dion.
he's in the weeds big time and i think he's gotta know it. If the slide continues, 25 percent may be optimistic. He may walk away with 20. Or rather, crawl away.
[updated Fri Sep 26 11:10:11 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 11:10
MRM, you rejoice in the public humiliation of a kind and decent man. Yet you support an obviously mean and vindicitive leader, whose vision will set Canada back decades. What does that say about you?
I think it's called blind loyalty. And that, Sir, is no virtue.
[updated Fri Sep 26 22:42:13 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 22:42
MRM
rsharp - How is this rejoicing in his public humiliation? What a silly comment to make. So what does that say about you? Pointing out that a political leader is having difficulty within his own party during a national election is a perfectly legitimate topic of discussion. But rather than actually discussing it in an open and mature manner you offer this nonsense. I think that your remarks actually fit the description of blind loyalty. And that, Sir, is no virtue.
[updated Fri Sep 26 23:32:24 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 23:32
MRM
rsharp - I'm waiting?
[updated Sat Sep 27 01:01:48 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 01:01
MRM
rsharp - Still waiting?
[updated Sun Sep 28 16:19:21 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 16:19
Didn't Dwight Duncan, Finance Minister for Ontario, Liberal, announced it would be a bad decision to change leadership and add a new tax.
Liberals against Liberals. It's awesome.
Chris, Ontario
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:47:33 -0400 2008]
30 Sep 14:47
Stephen Harper is the best Prime Minister, I would only vote Conservative and Stephen Harper for the most trustworthy, competent, leadership, and the best vision for Canada!
Conservative all the way!
Chris, Ontario
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:11:15 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:11
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
If Harper is the best I would haye to see whay you consider the worst .
[updated Mon Sep 29 16:37:13 -0400 2008]
29 Sep 16:37
Stephane Dion, Jack Layton, and Elizabeth May are a bunch of Left Wing idiots.
Vote Conservative, Vote Stephen Harper!
Tory101
[updated Tue Sep 30 14:48:34 -0400 2008]
30 Sep 14:48
chrisinpgbc
The NDP have been and always will be for the common person. So what ever and I am 38 years old man and know a thing or two about it. Go Jack Go
[updated Tue Oct 07 17:58:00 -0400 2008]
07 Oct 17:58
Jack Layton does not know anything about families. He says Kitchen Table way to much and yet does not have children. His environmental policy is just a copy of the U.K and he would, along with Dion run this country into deficit and a future depression. Stephen Harper's True North, strong and free plan is the best for the country and will steer us out of the path of economic troubles!
Vote Conservative, we need a majority to make this happen.
[updated Wed Oct 08 17:52:56 -0400 2008]
08 Oct 17:52
rm99
DION=PALIN
This is our KATIE COURIC interview! NO ANSWERS FOR SIMPLE QUESTIONS!!
Dion’s done. He’s going to get hammered in English Canada with this. Kind of ironic how he kept criticizing Harper over the last week but couldn’t say what he would do.
SEE THE SHOCKING DION VIDEO
http://www.stephentaylor.ca
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:14:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:14
No kidding! Put a fork in him. he's done!
Vote Conservative
Tory101
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:01:50 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 18:01
rm99
DION=PALIN
This is our KATIE COURIC interview! NO ANSWERS FOR SIMPLE QUESTIONS!!
SEE THE SHOCKING DION VIDEO
http://www.stephentaylor.ca
Dion’s done. He’s going to get hammered in English Canada with this. Kind of ironic how he kept criticizing Harper over the last week but couldn’t say what he would do.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:15:32 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:15
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