Post your questions for Nik…
Tonight, Nik will be on PrimeTime Politics with Peter Van Dusen at 8 pm ET / 5 pm PT for his weekly “Nik on the Numbers” feature. If you have any questions regarding our tracking or polling in general, you can post them on the blog, Nik will be answering your questions live on the air.
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives hitting the 40% mark for national support, a significant lead for the Tories over the Liberals. With the Liberals dropping to 25%, the 15 point difference between the two parties becomes the widest margin seen since election tracking began. The NDP follow at 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. CPAC-Nanos’ second set of weekly regional breakdown numbers show the Conservatives as the frontrunners in Northern and Eastern Ontario, the Prairies, Alberta and the lower mainland in British Columbia. The Bloc Québécois leads in Quebec support, but is statistically tied with the Liberals and NDP in Montreal. In the Atlantic provinces and Toronto, the Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked, and in British Columbia (excluding the lower mainland) the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are statistically tied.
Every Thursday, Nanos will release weekly regional numbers to see how party support fares at the provincial and regional levels (based on a five day track). The ten regions are Atlantic Canada, Montreal, the Rest of Quebec, Toronto and the GTA, South Western Ontario, Northern and Eastern Ontarion, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC Lower Mainland and the Rest of BC. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 23, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 40 (+3)
- Liberal Party 25 (-1)
- NDP 19 (-2)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (+1)
- Undecided 15% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 40% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 17% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 11% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 8% (-1)
- Unsure 17% (+1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 111 (+3)
- Jack Layton 51 (+4)
- Stephane Dion 38 (+6)
- Elizabeth May 14 (-4)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (-7)