Post your questions for Nik…
Tonight, Nik will be on PrimeTime Politics with Peter Van Dusen at 8 pm ET / 5 pm PT for his weekly “Nik on the Numbers” feature. If you have any questions regarding our tracking or polling in general, you can post them on the blog, Nik will be answering your questions live on the air.
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives hitting the 40% mark for national support, a significant lead for the Tories over the Liberals. With the Liberals dropping to 25%, the 15 point difference between the two parties becomes the widest margin seen since election tracking began. The NDP follow at 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. CPAC-Nanos’ second set of weekly regional breakdown numbers show the Conservatives as the frontrunners in Northern and Eastern Ontario, the Prairies, Alberta and the lower mainland in British Columbia. The Bloc Québécois leads in Quebec support, but is statistically tied with the Liberals and NDP in Montreal. In the Atlantic provinces and Toronto, the Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked, and in British Columbia (excluding the lower mainland) the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are statistically tied.
Every Thursday, Nanos will release weekly regional numbers to see how party support fares at the provincial and regional levels (based on a five day track). The ten regions are Atlantic Canada, Montreal, the Rest of Quebec, Toronto and the GTA, South Western Ontario, Northern and Eastern Ontarion, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC Lower Mainland and the Rest of BC. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 23, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 40 (+3)
- Liberal Party 25 (-1)
- NDP 19 (-2)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (+1)
- Undecided 15% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 40% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 17% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 11% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 8% (-1)
- Unsure 17% (+1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 111 (+3)
- Jack Layton 51 (+4)
- Stephane Dion 38 (+6)
- Elizabeth May 14 (-4)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (-7)
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Highest Rated Comments
Hill & Knowlton's seat projection, based on these numbers: CPC: 156 LPC: 63 ... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 25 Sep 14:13
Nik's numbers for Montreal Bloc 32 NDP 27 Liberal 23 CPC 13 Gre... more
skoblin (British Columbia) 25 Sep 14:09
OK, this is getting loopy. When are these numbers going to settle down into a s... more
Peter3 (Ontario) 25 Sep 14:13
Who ever agrees with everything a politician says? I'm a libertarian - I don'... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 25 Sep 19:29
We do in fact have a Charter of Rights and Freedoms in this country that protect... more
gfthompsonjr (New Brunswick) 25 Sep 19:43
Any one interested can see Ton Flanagan on TVO right now. ... more
larryl (Ontario) 25 Sep 20:17
Comments
Leofff
Wham!! I was waiting for that Liberal friendly rogue poll to fall off today. This is a disaster for the Liberals.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:05:14 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:05
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
skoblin
Nik's numbers for Montreal
Bloc 32
NDP 27
Liberal 23
CPC 13
Green 6
I do not know if this includes much of the impact of the arts funding furor, but incredible numbers for the NDP, even including the MOE. At this rate it looks like the numbers for the NDP may pan out in a number of seats, but hard to tell since the Bloc have gone up recently and this poll covers 20-24 September. I think Harper may have botched it for any party making a breakthrough in Quebec now with his culture comments. His comments seem to have caused the Tories the fall, the NDP to stop growing and the Bloc to recoup its strength according to the main poll. But as far as Montreal is concerned, if this subpoll is correct, we may be looking at massive voter shift in a number of Liberal ridings on the island.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:09:32 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:09
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
Hill & Knowlton's seat projection, based on these numbers:
CPC: 156
LPC: 63
NDP: 40
BQ: 49
GRN: 0
I know seat projection is horribly imprecise without really good regional breakdowns, but these are the first numbers I've seen that make me say "This looks like it might be a majority."
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:13:00 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:13
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Peter3
OK, this is getting loopy. When are these numbers going to settle down into a significant trend (other than impending Liberal disaster). Conservatives up in Ontario and West, down in Quebec and East. They are finally back in legitimate majority territory. Anyone offering odds on how long it will last? So far this has been the ceiling on Conservative support.
Check out the NDP numbers for Montreal in the 5-day regional breakout. It would be interesting to see how the arts funding brouhaha has played into this. Quebec is looking more and more volatile. I'm thinking Mr. Duceppe has perhaps peaked too soon.
There is also a new Sun media poll at the nanos site on voter volatility. It shows a very high level of movement among parties. No surprise, I guess.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:13:06 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 14:13
28 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
psiclone
I am curious as to what will happen when Dion's leadership numbers are the same as Ms May's and I wonder if their little political relationship will take a sudden turn for the worse and she kneecaps him and targets disaffected Liberals of which there seem to be quite a few of lately?
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:47:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 15:47
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Luc VNO
So it looks like we will get the Conservative majority we all wanted. Buyer beware though.... The Conservatives want to get tough on crime & look down our streets. You all think this isn't you that he is after, think again. Through the effects of continuous statute writing, everyone is a criminal. Every single Canadian breaks the law at least once every day. Speeding, J-walking, maybe you smoked a joint, but you did something. Think hard & you will find that you have broken a law today & maybe you should think twice before voting for someone who wants to crack down on you. Unfortunately, agreements we have made, NAFTA & WTO, stop us from writting any laws that could possibly affect someones percieved ability to make money, so they can only write laws that criminilize us, which Harper is more than willing to do.
I say again, buyer beware.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:37:06 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 18:37
51 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Good point. Harper continues to expand the definition of crime.... in his pathological definition of good vs. bad. I have no problem with locking up violent offenders but, take a closer look. Essentially victimless crimes like soft drugs have clogged the system almost beyond repair.
Harper doesn't care that 20-30% of the criminal justice system is tied up with drug users and minor pushers, a great number of which were entrapped by the police to sell them a nickle or dime of whatever. It is total madness that we continue to criminalize that which, at best, is a medical problem.
By the way. violent crime is down in our country, including among youth. Harper is creating fear in our minds, without the slightest factual basis. k. That's the way he is.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:51:03 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 18:51
Luc VNO
I totally agree with that, he is just scaring us for no good reason. Unfortunately though, there is an entire industry that relies on criminals for business. Judges, lawyers, clerks, cops, guards, parole officers. As canadians commit less crime these peoples jobs become at risk, so more things need to be made illegal to avoid a legal recession, a term I made up to describe the loss of jobs in the legal profession due to a lack of crime.
I just don't understand how people can listen to Harper & not hear that he's talking out of both sides of his mouth.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:13:15 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:13
Lex Llewdor
I don't see that drug use is a problem at all. I'd legalise it all. But I also need to scrap socliased medicine so it doesn't cost us money to treat them when they OD, and I know that's not going to happen under a Liberal government.
So, I have two options. Discourage drug use, and thus save money on healthcare, or don't discourage drug use and waste money fixing people who don't deserve the help.
I know which one I pick.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:33:01 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:33
westerner (suspended)
The Conservatives are proposing to get tough on SERIOUS crime not the silly stuff you are suggesting. You are over the top and continuing to portray Harper as turning everyone into criminals. What nonsense! This strategy is worn out and the Canadian people aren't buying it.
Paul Martin tried the "soldiers in the streets" routine and it failed miserably.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:06:10 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:06
Luc VNO
Really..... Have you read any of the legislation????
Manditory minimum sentence of 2 years if you are caught with more than 1 ounce of weed. Me & my friends are all adults, we don't buy single grams of weed anymore, we buy enough to last til the next paycheck. I don't know anyone who doesn't buy an ounce when the buy their weed. None of us are criminals, we are all otherwise law abiding citizens. How does that even make any sense??? 30% of Canadians smoke weed now, 60% have. Should we all be in prison???
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:20:10 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:20
Lex Llewdor
Who ever agrees with everything a politician says?
I'm a libertarian - I don't want the government to regulate anything - but if I have to pick and choose I'll choose to keep the government's hands off my money.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:29:34 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:29
Foxer
I don't have a problem with the legalization of dope.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:37:18 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:37
Lex, sorry, you make no sense. The point of this debate is drugs, especially soft drugs. It is not incredible how a parolee smoking a joint or drinking a beer has to go back to prison? These suckers don"t commit other crimes but, if they' re caught, game over.
We taxpayers get a $150k tab for two years of prison time. Vs, maybne $15 if we allowed them to stay on parole.
EASY CHOICE? MADNESS? APPARENTLY NOT,
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:55:30 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:55
Lex Llewdor
You're ignoring the cost of the drug use.
Though, I think people who want to criminalise all the drugs ignore the costs of the crime that creates. Not just the incarceration, but as long as the drugs are illegal then the prices will remain high, and people who want the drugs will commit crimes to get those drugs.
I'm with you on legalising drugs, but I haven't noticed anyone else suggesting it.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:59:39 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:59
I don't condone potheads. They're sick. But that's the point. They're not criminals.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:15:52 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:15
Luc VNO
Dude, I'm not sick.......
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:25:55 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:25
Lex Llewdor
I agree. you're not sick. You're making a choice, and you should be allowed to do that.
That's why I support the Conservatives in this election. They'll interfere in my life less.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:26:55 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:26
Luc VNO
That's funny, I'm voting anything but, because the Cons intend to interfere more with my life. If only they saw that pot should be treated as alcohol is, I might be tempted to vote for them.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:31:10 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:31
Foxer
You should join the party and speak up.
A lot of us have seen things we didn't like in the original cpc platforms and we've fought to remove them. And harper really does listen. Things like the whole 'gay marriage' issue, which most conservatives didn't feel was something the party should be against.
You may be surprised at the level of support you get -The 'mentality' behind firearms laws is similar to the argument around dope laws. A lot of firearms owners comment on that, and there's a lot of firearms owners in the CPC.
I could see the cpc decriminalizing small amounts - but it won't happen if nobody fights for it.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:51:34 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:51
If you believe Harper will fight to decriminalize soft drugs, then I have swamp land in Florida for you. Please. Show some respect for readers.
[updated Fri Sep 26 23:31:46 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 23:31
Foxer
Harper will do what the members of the party want him to do. If there is a push for it, then it will be considered. That's one way the cpc is different from the liberals. The PEOPLE make the policy. Once it's made, harper carries it out (and then it's best not to get in his way).
Your blind devotion to your ideology aside - if the poster joins the cpc and makes a case for it, it will be heard.
[updated Sat Sep 27 00:46:28 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 00:46
Foxer, Harper follows instructions? How novel a thought. I thought he was a leader.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:35:33 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:35
Foxer
Leader isn't the same as dictator. A good leader listens, sets a plan, then executes it. As dion's finding out - dion doesn't listen to anyone and then sets a plan and doesn't follow it. Which isn't working as well :)
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:19:56 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:19
How do you know Dion "doesn't listen to anyone."? That he isn't following a set plan?
Sounds like more mistruths to me.
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:42:09 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:42
Foxer
Well his people have complained in public several times now that he doesn't listen and is driving the show on his own. i figure they'd likely know. :)
And the fact that he flip flops so regularly pretty much shows he's not following any set plan. Even his green tax isn't a plan - it's sort of a vague proposal for an experiment, no measurable results no goals no targets, nothing.
Pretty simple. Have you seen any indication he's following a plan? Other than just bashing others like crazy at the moment?
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:48:51 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:48
Lex Llewdor
Foxer's right. The CPC still has all the mechanisms of a populist party like Reform was. The members can direct policy - it's not a top-down sort of party the way the PCs were under Mulroney.
This is why the party so adamantly opposes the gun registry, even though that probably hurts the party a lot in Toronto and Montreal. This is why the party will not raise the gay marriage thing again; the members don't want them to.
There's significant pressure from BC to decriminalise or even legalise pot, partly because it's BC's biggest industry (estimated at $12 billion annually) and right now all that money is going to organised crime.
There are good, fiscally conservative arguments as to why pot should be legalised. The party will move on this issue if enough members want them to.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:21:19 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:21
Foxer
Surprisingly, a large number of firearms owners are open to the idea of legalizing personal amounts - the arguments are very similar to why people should be allowed to own firearms.
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:20:51 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:20
Luc VNO
Every main party but the Cons have legalizing pot on thier platform. The Greens & the NPD aren't shy about saying it, but even the Libs introduced bill c-17 under Paul's House, which would have decriminalized small amounts & allowed for the growth of three plants in the home for personal use.
If there were a 10% tax on pot, we could cut the income tax by several points in each bracket.
Everyone seems to think that the NPD & Green party's promises of spending will ruin the economy or that they will have to raise taxes, but both parties plan to tax the pot, so thier spending promises don't sound so outlandish.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:20:02 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:20
larryl
luc. Would you grow your own if it was legal. That's why they will never make it legal. They would make no money from it and health care costs would drop dramatically since people who smoke pot usually don't suffer from all the stress related illnesses. Real pot heads don't even know there sick and don't care if they do know it .
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:32:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:32
Luc VNO
Just because I would take the time, doesn't mean that most would. I could, if I wanted to, brew my own beer, but I don't, so the government gets its tax. I strongly believe that we will see the day of drug policy that makes sense. It just has to get worse before it gets better.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:34:41 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:34
MRM
Luc - Put the joint down and read the party platforms. NONE of the parties advocate legalizing pot, including the Greens and NDP. Your statements about the Greens and NDP taxing pot are not true. You are just blowing smoke (pun intended). As an example, that is why the NDP just dumped two candidates in BC and the Marijuana Party has turned on them. ALL of the party’s do advocate decriminalization though.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:33:35 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:33
rm99
DION=PALIN
This is our KATIE COURIC interview! NO ANSWERS FOR SIMPLE QUESTIONS!!
Dion’s done. He’s going to get hammered in English Canada with this. Kind of ironic how he kept criticizing Harper over the last week but couldn’t say what he would do.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:13:41 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:13
Foxer
Dion and the libs made me a criminal years ago with c-68.
Harper isn't going after j-walkers, and everyone knows it. I'm sure you can see the difference between a kid j-walking and someone who commits a violent crime.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:35:35 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:35
Luc VNO
yet bill c-17 in paul martin's government would have wiped out my criminal record.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:57:11 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:57
Foxer
Maybe. If he'd ever passed it. Of course - it didn't really legalize it, it just 'decriminalized' small amounts. Still against the law, just not criminal.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:04:09 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:04
gfthompsonjr
We do in fact have a Charter of Rights and Freedoms in this country that protects us from the state...That ain't gonna change no matter who is elected, my fear mongering friend. LOL. BTW - Watch out for the bogeyman.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:43:48 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:43
Luc VNO
& yet I have been criminalized all my life for being a pot smoker. It has gone to far already, we don't need a government that wants to continue criminalizing its citizens. Harper has said he wants to attack the culture of pot smoking in Canada. That's a direct attack on me. I've never broken any other law & I still have been in court almost every year, sometimes more than once for just possessing a small amount of pot. When will I not be considered a criminal for an activty I enjoy that doesn't harm others. When will we stop handing organized crime unprecendented profits rather than reaping the benefits of taxing a substance that has become the choice of many Canadians over alcohol.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:09:51 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:09
westerner (suspended)
The solution is simple. STOP SMOKING POT.
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:19:04 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:19
Luc VNO
Or..... I could vote for a party that agrees with my views. Since that includes 4 of the 5 major parties, I've got options.
Besides, why should we, as the people of this country, have to tolerate laws that criminalize such a vast proportion of our citizens???!!!?!!!???
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:43:32 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:43
westerner (suspended)
What ? "5 major parties"; You will have to name them please.
[updated Fri Sep 26 00:35:33 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 00:35
larryl
Any one interested can see Ton Flanagan on TVO right now.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:17:39 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:17
westerner (suspended)
What is TVO?
[updated Thu Sep 25 21:36:15 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 21:36
larryl
Westerner. TV Ontario is a publicly funded educational network here. It is not a left wing network. The host of THE AGENDA is going to be the moderator of the english language dedates . Tonight's panel included a pollster and reps from the 4 major parties. It is quite interesting and you should be able to listen on the net at tvo.org. Replayed at 11 our time so it might be of interest . Not sure if it is replayed on the net. The former Tory premier's girlfriend was head of the network but her only qualification was that she married the owner of CTV John Bassett. She was 30 years younger than him and looked pretty good .
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:17:11 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:17
westerner (suspended)
TV Ontario? Probably has a anti western bias.(Sad but true) Good for John Bassett that he married a woman 30 years younger who was good looking. Wealth has its rewards.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:35:29 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:35
larryl
westerner. You can judge for yourself if it is on the net. Are you really that paranoid that anything from the east has to have an anti west bias. Old John F was still married to his first wife when screwing around with Isabel . If wealth allows adultery as one of it's rewards I think I will stay poor for another 40 years with the same woman.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:05:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:05
fortescue
Via Warren Kinsella commenting on this poll
"If Nick's right - and I don't know a serious Liberal who doubts his professionalism - then this thing has turned into a scramble for survival. That's it. "
15 points is huge.
[updated Thu Sep 25 23:24:14 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 23:24
larryl
fortescue. Two of the three on the AT Issue panel last night did not put much credence in the rolling poll used here . It is based on 400 interviews per day and to have a 15 point shift in one day does seem a little far fetched even for Harper supporters. Kinsella is a pro at this and knows they can get Liberals back in the fold if they can convince people the party is in danger of disappearing.Many are still angry and don't like Dion but will get back to their roots if they fear the party could collapse. There is still two lifetimes left in the campaign and many things could happen. Watch for Elections Canada to make some announcement soon.
[updated Fri Sep 26 07:49:57 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 07:49
dgbeaulne
Larry, with all due respect, what the heck does Elections Canada have to do with polls? What kind of announcement do you think they'd come out with?
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:12:25 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:12
Foxer
And when did we get a 15 point shift in a day? The numbers change maybe one or two points in a day.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:54:25 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:54
larryl
DG. Elections Canada has nothing to with theses polls but an annoucement from them will have a huge impact on the undecided voters and there will be a significant swing coming soon. There are other things still to come in the next two weeks.
[updated Fri Sep 26 11:46:12 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 11:46
dgbeaulne
Sorry Larry, I'm gonna need you to draw me a picture. Being undecided, I really would like to know why you think Elections Canada is going to make an announcement, and why you think that is going to have an influence on a voters' decision. Do you know something that the rest of us don't?
[updated Fri Sep 26 12:25:44 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 12:25
larryl
DG. Every one knows Elections Canada was conducting an investigation into the In/Out scheme. It did not stop when the election was called. It is quite possible they will file charges against the 69 candidates who took part and should do that before the election since they have an obligation to ensure a fair campaign . If the rules were broken should we be informed before we go to the polls. If they wait till after and any of those people are charged and convicted E.C. has the power to deregister a political party. That would cause another election .
[updated Fri Sep 26 12:39:42 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 12:39
dgbeaulne
So the people that were butting heads with the Conservatives could make the decision at the most "opportune" time to torpedo this campaign?
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:18:21 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:18
larryl
DG. If you ask the right wingers they will tell you E.C. is a Liberal friendly group who are investigating the CPC when they are well aware the in/out. has been used by all parties. Harper called this election to stop committees and his own investigation of Mulroney/Schreiber from embarassing his party. The E.C. investigation was not stopped and could release it's findings at any time. What kind of voter outrage would we see if they release the information after the election. Harper's lawsuit against Dion and the Liberal party will probably be thrown out but that has been delayed by this election. Too many things we should have been allowed to know but Steve found the perfect way to stop it all except for one.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:32:34 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:32
Lex Llewdor
There will be no charges. The rules weren't broken.
A lot of people think the spirit of the rules were broken, but that's not relevant. That's not how rules work.
The Bloc used to pay people to donate to it - with the tax benefits for political donations, it ended up earning money for both the party and the donors. When I worked at Reform I proposed we do the very same thing. Here's how it worked:
Party gives $50 to Member.
Member makes $100 donation to Party.
Member files taxes, and gets $75 back from the government.
The net result there is the government handing $25 to the donor and $50 to the party. It was a great scam, and it was entirely legal (if grossly underhanded).
No one got punished.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:32:01 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:32
larryl
lex. Do you think it might still be going on since the CPC is so good at fund raising. I think the investigation is still ongoing and I have filed another complaint with regard to the CPC violating campaign funding rules.I imagine they will be launching another
investigation when the campaign expenses are submitted.
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:41:06 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:41
Ken in AB
Did I read that right? "In the Atlantic provinces and Toronto, the Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked". TORONTO????.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:37:57 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 18:37
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gfthompsonjr
Yes, the regional numbers do not look all that good for the CPC around Montreal - However, I don't believe there was any vision of great gains in that area. One thing we should keep in mind is that Duceppe needs only to run a campaign in one province, a fact that allows him to get much more exposure than the other leaders.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:32:28 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:32
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Stephen Harper is the most trustworthy leader by far!
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:43:00 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:43
28 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Conservative Party and Undecided would be my two choices for if the election was held today.
Stephen Harper would make the best federal leader. The most competent leader, and the best vision for Canada by far.
Conservatives all the way.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:45:44 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 19:45
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Chris, Ontarion,
If the number stay steady Nic, will the Conservatives win a majority?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:10:29 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:10
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mr_Michael
When you poll people are you using the same group of people? These numbers are in such a state of flex, how can you truely gauge the true picture.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:16:47 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:16
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Chris, Ontario
When looking on election night, how many seats is a majority?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:17:26 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:17
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
ed84
I can't understand why people don't pick up on this hypocrisy from the Conservatives.
The latest comes from the crime front and giving stricter sentences for 14yr old youth. Two years ago they raised the age of consent from 14 to 16yrs old. I have no issues with protecting youth, that is how it should be, but that move two years ago suggested that they think youth at that age don't have the judgment and are too easily coerced into different situations. So how would committing a crime be any different? If you think youth don't have the judgment and are easily coerced into making bad decisions at that age, why is committing a violent crime any different?
This is the same party that talks about safety and safe communities but they are not for gun control.
Ermin
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:17:40 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:17
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Craig
Hi Nik, great show as always.
I have two questions:
1. Does Nanos poll the northern territories, or is it statistically impossible given the size and population? Do you have a general idea of the breakdown.
2. How is the leadership index calculated?
Thanks,
Craig
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:22:00 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:22
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fortescue
TPQ where are you??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:30:13 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:30
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Cousinj
Hi Nik,
Will Nanos come out with the numbers based on age groups at any time during the election?
Thanks
JM
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:30:48 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:30
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John999
How do you feel when you hear candidates say they don't "look" or rely on the polls that you provide and only the final vote matters?
Does it seem silly to you?
- John
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:31:29 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:31
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My, things are not working out as they should. But I will never give up hope for human decency until its over, Mr. Harper hasn't a decent bone in his body. Not one. He's mean and vindictive and on and on.. This man would set us back about a century! He's reallty dangerous.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:32:28 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:32
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Mr_Michael
Nik,
Do your numbers for GTA show if the Conservatives have made any significant in roads into breaking the Liberal strangle hold on the GTA.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:33:38 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:33
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Lori
Hi Nick. Wondering about the large proportion of undecided/unsure in the Leadership Index questions. Do you screen out respondents who indicate they have no intention of voting. There are many Canadians (unfortunately) that are apathetic to our political process and if they are not even interested in voting, will likely have no real opinion on the competence, trustworthiness and vision of the leaders.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:35:14 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:35
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Luc VNO
Nik,
What kind of situation do you think it would take to move the non-voting 40% of Canadians to the ballot box??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:36:13 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:36
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Chris, Ontario,
What are the key battlegrounds around the GTA and what are the numbers for Oakville-Burlington Regions Nik.
Thanks!
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:36:56 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:36
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Luc VNO
Nik,
What kind of situation do you think it would take to move the non voting 40% of Canadians to the ballot box??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:37:47 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:37
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mcfly
What do you think the election would be like with a publication ban on polls?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:41:49 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:41
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spstarr
Hi Nik,
As an addition to a previous question. If you identify yourself as Nanos in the survey, is it possible some people might try to cause a skew in your poll vs other polls by giving different answers to somewhat influence other people when they see the Nanos poll results?
Thanks,
Shawn.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:43:05 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:43
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skoblin
Nik,
considering the large majorities the Liberals had in their ridings in Montreal in the last election, is there a realistic chance of the NDP actually translating their apparent support in Montreal into actual victories, and if so, which ridings do you see this happening in?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:43:23 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:43
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Cousinj
Hi Nik,
Will Nanos do a poll on which television station voters watch during the election campaign or on election night?
Thanks,
JM
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:45:37 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:45
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John999
How do the 2 of you remain neutral and unbiased about your personal party preferences when presenting the news and statistics?
Is this sometimes difficult for you?
What kind of requirements were put upon you when you were hired for CPAC?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:47:20 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:47
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goles
Hi Nik, Great show.
It seems there is a tendency for the parties to rely on one of two policy levers (i.e., spending vs regulation/legislation) in their daily annoucements. The Liberal and NDP seem to emphasize spending while the Conservatives seem to emphasize regulations/legislation (e.g., pollution penalties, prison sentences). In an economic uncertain time do you think that this is having an impact on voters impressions?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:51:45 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:51
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Lori
Nik - do you have any sense of how conflicted people may be when their local representative is not affiliated with the same party of the leader they feel is best suited to run the country? Clearly people rank Harper as the strongest leader yet, particularly in areas like SW Ontario, we like our local Liberal incumbents.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:54:34 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:54
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much
Nik,
Why are the Bloc not being considered as traitors?
Thx
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:58:59 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 20:58
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Informed
Clearly Stephen Harper he is speaking about real issues and making small spending programs announcements while talking about the slowing economy. He is dominating the centre and right position while the other parties are fighting over the left of centre voters.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:25:31 -0400 2008]
25 Sep 22:25
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a_peters93
These polling numbers seem to be jumping around a lot in the early going of this election. Do polling numbers tend to settle out after the leaders debate or do they settle out at all? And secondly, the Prime Minister has stated during his election campaign that he refuses to speculate on current polls as every poll he has seen as a federal politican has never accurately translated to the makeup of the elected house. Does the Prime Minister's statement accurate reflect what you have seen in your polling results over the years?
[updated Fri Sep 26 03:33:58 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 03:33
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MRM
Some extracts from a very interesting article in today’s G&M:
Globe and Mail Update
September 25, 2008 at 9:55 PM EDT
How damaging is it when members of your party begin to publicly turn on you, as is happening to Stephane Dion? And what can Mr. Dion do about it?
Greg Lyle (former chief of staff for premiers Gary Filmon and Gordon Campbell) It is never helpful to have your own party members voicing criticism. It is downright devastating to be criticized by your own team at a time when people outside the party are criticizing you as well.
Scott Reid (former communications director for Paul Martin): No campaign wants to take on friendly fire. It's distracting. It's unhelpful. And it's not a sign of success. But the question of how seriously it should be regarded depends upon two factors: How serious are the voices speaking out, and how serious are their criticisms?
Gerald Caplan (former NDP campaign manager): As I'm sure everyone concedes, the milk of human compassion flows through the veins of all socialists. So part of me really, really feels for Stephane Dion's public humiliation. Under his stewardship, Canada's Natural Governing Party seems well on the road to the worst result in its history. John Turner plummeted to 28 per cent in 1984. The core Liberal vote is usually deemed to be about 30 per cent. As of this moment, Mr. Dion will be lucky to get much above 25 per cent.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:20:05 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 10:20
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Stephen Harper is the best Prime Minister, I would only vote Conservative and Stephen Harper for the most trustworthy, competent, leadership, and the best vision for Canada!
Conservative all the way!
Chris, Ontario
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:11:15 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 13:11
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rm99
DION=PALIN
This is our KATIE COURIC interview! NO ANSWERS FOR SIMPLE QUESTIONS!!
SEE THE SHOCKING DION VIDEO
http://www.stephentaylor.ca
Dion’s done. He’s going to get hammered in English Canada with this. Kind of ironic how he kept criticizing Harper over the last week but couldn’t say what he would do.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:15:32 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:15
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