Post your questions for Nik…
Tonight, Nik will be on PrimeTime Politics with Peter Van Dusen at 8 pm ET / 5 pm PT for his weekly “Nik on the Numbers” feature. If you have any questions regarding our tracking or polling in general, you can post them on the blog, Nik will be answering your questions live on the air.
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives hitting the 40% mark for national support, a significant lead for the Tories over the Liberals. With the Liberals dropping to 25%, the 15 point difference between the two parties becomes the widest margin seen since election tracking began. The NDP follow at 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. CPAC-Nanos’ second set of weekly regional breakdown numbers show the Conservatives as the frontrunners in Northern and Eastern Ontario, the Prairies, Alberta and the lower mainland in British Columbia. The Bloc Québécois leads in Quebec support, but is statistically tied with the Liberals and NDP in Montreal. In the Atlantic provinces and Toronto, the Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked, and in British Columbia (excluding the lower mainland) the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are statistically tied.
Every Thursday, Nanos will release weekly regional numbers to see how party support fares at the provincial and regional levels (based on a five day track). The ten regions are Atlantic Canada, Montreal, the Rest of Quebec, Toronto and the GTA, South Western Ontario, Northern and Eastern Ontarion, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC Lower Mainland and the Rest of BC. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 23, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 40 (+3)
- Liberal Party 25 (-1)
- NDP 19 (-2)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (+1)
- Undecided 15% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 40% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 17% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 11% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 8% (-1)
- Unsure 17% (+1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 111 (+3)
- Jack Layton 51 (+4)
- Stephane Dion 38 (+6)
- Elizabeth May 14 (-4)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (-7)
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Hill & Knowlton's seat projection, based on these numbers: CPC: 156 LPC: 63 ... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 25 Sep 14:13
Nik's numbers for Montreal Bloc 32 NDP 27 Liberal 23 CPC 13 Gre... more
skoblin (British Columbia) 25 Sep 14:09
OK, this is getting loopy. When are these numbers going to settle down into a s... more
Peter3 (Ontario) 25 Sep 14:13
Who ever agrees with everything a politician says? I'm a libertarian - I don'... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 25 Sep 19:29
We do in fact have a Charter of Rights and Freedoms in this country that protect... more
gfthompsonjr (New Brunswick) 25 Sep 19:43
Any one interested can see Ton Flanagan on TVO right now. ... more
larryl (Ontario) 25 Sep 20:17
Comments
Leofff
Wham!! I was waiting for that Liberal friendly rogue poll to fall off today. This is a disaster for the Liberals.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:05:14 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:05
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
skoblin
Nik's numbers for Montreal
Bloc 32
NDP 27
Liberal 23
CPC 13
Green 6
I do not know if this includes much of the impact of the arts funding furor, but incredible numbers for the NDP, even including the MOE. At this rate it looks like the numbers for the NDP may pan out in a number of seats, but hard to tell since the Bloc have gone up recently and this poll covers 20-24 September. I think Harper may have botched it for any party making a breakthrough in Quebec now with his culture comments. His comments seem to have caused the Tories the fall, the NDP to stop growing and the Bloc to recoup its strength according to the main poll. But as far as Montreal is concerned, if this subpoll is correct, we may be looking at massive voter shift in a number of Liberal ridings on the island.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:09:32 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:09
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
Hill & Knowlton's seat projection, based on these numbers:
CPC: 156
LPC: 63
NDP: 40
BQ: 49
GRN: 0
I know seat projection is horribly imprecise without really good regional breakdowns, but these are the first numbers I've seen that make me say "This looks like it might be a majority."
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:13:00 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:13
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Peter3
OK, this is getting loopy. When are these numbers going to settle down into a significant trend (other than impending Liberal disaster). Conservatives up in Ontario and West, down in Quebec and East. They are finally back in legitimate majority territory. Anyone offering odds on how long it will last? So far this has been the ceiling on Conservative support.
Check out the NDP numbers for Montreal in the 5-day regional breakout. It would be interesting to see how the arts funding brouhaha has played into this. Quebec is looking more and more volatile. I'm thinking Mr. Duceppe has perhaps peaked too soon.
There is also a new Sun media poll at the nanos site on voter volatility. It shows a very high level of movement among parties. No surprise, I guess.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:13:06 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:13
28 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
I expect a pullback. Some 10% of Conservative voters are "uncomfortable" with the idea of a Conservative majority, so a quick drop back to the mid-30s is entirely likely.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:19:27 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:19
Foxer
I don't think so. I think that the drop to 37 WAS the pull back. I think a lot of people liked the announcement of tough on criminal polluters policies. I think that really hammered home for lots of folks - i know i've seen companies get away with murder and happily pay the pittance of a fine to do it. A few million bucks might change their tunes.
I don't think political support will 'firm up' till after the debates - they'll start to slowly 'lock down' at that point, and of course the big 'firming' will happen just before the election.
One thing is for sure tho - this is the 4th day in a row the libs have dropped - they're marching towards the basement.
At 25 percent we're on the verge of a complete liberal collapse.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:34:53 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:34
Lex Llewdor
Nik did have the CPC up at 39 on the 17th and 18th, and then the decline as low as 35 on the 21st. You could be right (which would mean this election is basically over for the Liberals).
Also, since Nik's numbers have, throughout the campaign, been the most favourable numbers for the Liberals (largely at the expense of the Greens for reasons we've prevously discussed), their core support is all they have. They're not appealing to anyone who doesn't vote Liberal out of habit.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:41:57 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:41
skoblin
I think the majority of the poll regarding Montreal does not include the arts funding controversy. I think if the full impact of that is taken into account, you may see the NDP numbers quite lower. Still, difficult to tell. Layton played his cards right by not letting Duceppe grandstand alone at the large arts funding concert that took place in Montreal. Where was Dion? Bad move by the Liberals in that regard. Dion should have been there as well. All in all, I think the arts funding controversy will have hurt the Liberals and Tories most in terms of lost support, while stopping NDP momentum. A strident remark by Harper and three parties suffer collateral damage!
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:19:45 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:19
Lex Llewdor
Has there been a significant development in this election that wasn't a bad move by the Liberals?
The only thing keeping Dion going at this point is he doesn't have the money to make easily mockable TV ads:
------
Stephen Harper has a dog.
You know who else had a dog?
Hitler.
Does Stephen Harper train his dog to attack ethnic minorities?
We don't know.
He's not saying.
------
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:25:58 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:25
skoblin
The Liberals only successful move was allowing Dion to be bombed by a puffin....wait...no..that was a Tory ad. sorry.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:38:53 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:38
Foxer
ROFL - yeah, the only thing that's saved the libs so far is that the tories are running a better campaign for the liberals than the liberals are :)
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:03:31 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:03
Craig
That was singlehandedly the FUNNIEST comment I have seen all campaign.
Kudos, I literally spewed water on my computer.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:08:44 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:08
Lex Llewdor
I know they happened almost three years ago, but those ads are just too funny not to keep making fun of them.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:13:23 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:13
Foxer
Heh - i know. I still laugh. And i'm not making this up :)
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:21:03 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 16:21
Foxer
The numbers will be volitile till at least after the debates. They'll start to firm up at that point.
I doubt the cpc vote will stay at 40 - it'll cruise around 39 - 38 until the debates. Oh - it might go up a point to 41 for a day, down a point to 37 for a day, but that's within the margin of error.
But - we are seeing the undecided slowly sinking. That's soft so far i'd bet, but there's a trend, and it's coming out on the side of the CPC so far.
The real question is will there be a stampede to the NDP on the left after the debates?
The libs have sunk 4 days now - it looks like liberal support is right on the edge of complete collapse.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:40:56 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:40
skoblin
On the edge, but what is the level of the core Liberal support, that won't budge? I can't see the Liberals falling below 22 or 23%. Toronto won't stand for it, lol. But yes, the debate will clear up almost everything and the number of undecided seems to be gradually falling off according to EKOS.
[updated Thu Sep 25 14:51:43 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 14:51
Foxer
There is no such thing. The libs in the past have collapsed (under turner) and they can do so now. Plus - there's the question of how many demoralized liberal voters will turn out on election day anyway.
IF it is seen that the libs are going to collapse anyway - there will be a shift. And it won't be one dion cares to see. I can easily see liberal support on voting day dropping to 18 - 20 percent as voters rally around layton - and a lot of those decisions will be made inside the ballot box looking at the voting card.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:06:23 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:06
skoblin
Well...if the Liberals fall to 18% they will be spending a long time wandering in the wilderness. With the new party funding rules being as they are, no bail out will be possible on the part of pro-Liberal corporations as in the past. They will have to rely on small handouts with the party heavily in debt and two viable contenders for their traditional support.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:25:15 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:25
Foxer
Skoblin - with their current finances and borrowing if they get what they got before they're in real trouble. ANY drop will be disasterous for them.
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:00:46 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 16:00
Peter3
The debate may actually cause the undecided vote to increase for a bit, if there's a clear winner or, especially, a clear loser. Typically it takes vote a few days to move to its final destination after something like that.
I think the Liberals are going to have a hard time getting their support to the polls come election day, so disastrous numbers are possible.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:15:40 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:15
Craig
Does anyone think that Dion is going to unveil a big campaign promise during the debates? That is, like Paul Martin in 2006 when he suddenly announced he would make the Notwithstanding Clause illegal.
If I remember correctly, Martin was generally panned for this. Yet, Dion may have better advisors and could try it again.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:15:42 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:15
skoblin
As of right now, the only thing he could do is drop the carbon tax. It would be a dramatic move and would make him appear weak. But he already appears weak, so no loss there. In fact, strangely enough, it could make him appear decisive. 'I've listened to Canadians and Canadians have said NO. So I also say NO.' Stranger things have happened. Other than that, unless he can magically turn himself into Chretien and start strangling protesters he is done like poutine.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:28:33 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:28
Peter3
If you look closely at the footage you can see that Mr. Chretien was attempting a Vulcan mind meld and missed his grip...
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:35:22 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:35
Lex Llewdor
That would work, I think. It would remind people of John Turner in all the wrong ways, and show that Dion is not like him.
"You had a choice, sir. You could have said no."
This would be Dion saying no.
Incidentally, you'd think Turner would have learned from Gerald Ford. Don't pardon Nixon.
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:07:43 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 16:07
Peter3
One of the debate prep people for working for Mr. Dion is the guy who is credited with suggesting the nothwithstanding gambit to Mr. Martin last time out. Given that Mr. Dion doesn't seem to be getting good advice about much, anything is possible, I guess.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:28:43 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:28
skoblin
I don't think it is a question of good advice. I think Dion has been pretty much listening to Dion through this campaign. That has been the problem. Can you imagine any sane Liberal strategist suggesting a tax as being the party's main platform? This is all Dion in my opinion, and now the rest of party seems to be standing back to watch the implosion. Rae showed up for a bit and now seems to have run for shelter, same with Ignatieff. This campaign has been a disaster. I was watching CPAC last night covering the race in Vancouver Island North and the Liberal candidate there still didn't have any campaign signs. How f****d is that? Question now is who will pick up the pieces after Dion walks the plank? I don't see either Rae or Ignatieff wanting to have to rebuild the party and stand in the backbenches for four years if the Tories get a majority and the NDP end up as the OFOP. These two guys wanted to be PM, not backbenchers in the opposition gallery. Exit, stage right for those two.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:43:00 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:43
Lex Llewdor
I don't know about that. Dion's long been known as the Green Liberal, so by making his platform entirely Green they probablyfigured he could take all the Green votes (4%) and that would be enough to get past the Tories.
They completely failed to take into account Dion's unpopularity and the Liberals' severe funding disadvantage.
The Liberals will actually benefit from a Conservative majority because it will give them more time to recover financially before the next election. Another minority will mean another election in less than three years, and they still won't have any money.
History has taught Canadians that they are Liberals, but the new funding rules seem to demonstrating that Canadians are in fact Conservatives.
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:05:12 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 16:05
Lex Llewdor
He seriously said that?
Aside from needing a constitutional amendment to do it (and that's never going to happen), it's a great way to alienate Quebec. They use the notwithstanding clause the most.
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:56:32 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:56
Craig
I think the official promise Martin made was that use of the Notwithstanding Clause by the FEDERAL government would be made illegal.
That way the provinces would be protected and he could pander to those who were "scared" that Harper would try to trump the Supreme Court at every turn.
------------
I don't see Dion announcing that he's ending the Green Shift, but it is possible he could announce some huge Health Care plan or copy Layton and abandon NAFTA (which is very unlikely).
[updated Thu Sep 25 16:26:11 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 16:26
Lex Llewdor
Layton going after NAFTA works. Most Canadians like NAFTA, but not the one's who might vote NDP. Layton's positions are often aimed at underrepresented people who don't agree with the majority.
Just yesterday Jack said he wants to scrap the softwood lumber deal, a deal the BC forestry sector loves. Many people will vilify Layton for it, but parts of the BC interior that aren't benefitting from the industry the way they think they could will love him for it. The deal prevents the BC government from using the forestry sector as a sort of regional development office by proxy, so now stumpage and mill construction are market regulated. Before BC could give lower stumpage rates to companies that would build mills where the government wanted them, so areas that made less economic sense still got some benefit.
The US (correctly) viewed this as a subsidy, and complained about it. Layton's plan would badly damage BC's economy, but it will win him tons of votes in poorer rural areas.
[updated Thu Sep 25 17:12:07 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 17:12
westerner (suspended)
Debates are a very poor place to announce policy changes. With five Parties debating the time for answers is going to be very short. The party leaders will need to be very concise, and long winded answers will result in them being cut off. I can't imagine anyone trying to announce substantive policy shifts at that time.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:55:49 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 18:55
MRM
Martin's promise to make the NWC illegal was a gimmick and a lie. To do so would require and ammendment to the constitution which in turn requires the assent from both the House of Commons and the Senate; the approval of two-thirds of the provincial legislatures, at least seven provinces, representing at least 50% of the population (effectively, this would include at least Quebec or Ontario, as they are the most populous provinces).
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:59:27 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 10:59
psiclone
I am curious as to what will happen when Dion's leadership numbers are the same as Ms May's and I wonder if their little political relationship will take a sudden turn for the worse and she kneecaps him and targets disaffected Liberals of which there seem to be quite a few of lately?
[updated Thu Sep 25 15:47:40 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 15:47
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Luc VNO
So it looks like we will get the Conservative majority we all wanted. Buyer beware though.... The Conservatives want to get tough on crime & look down our streets. You all think this isn't you that he is after, think again. Through the effects of continuous statute writing, everyone is a criminal. Every single Canadian breaks the law at least once every day. Speeding, J-walking, maybe you smoked a joint, but you did something. Think hard & you will find that you have broken a law today & maybe you should think twice before voting for someone who wants to crack down on you. Unfortunately, agreements we have made, NAFTA & WTO, stop us from writting any laws that could possibly affect someones percieved ability to make money, so they can only write laws that criminilize us, which Harper is more than willing to do.
I say again, buyer beware.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:37:06 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 18:37
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Ken in AB
Did I read that right? "In the Atlantic provinces and Toronto, the Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked". TORONTO????.
[updated Thu Sep 25 18:37:57 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 18:37
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gfthompsonjr
Yes, the regional numbers do not look all that good for the CPC around Montreal - However, I don't believe there was any vision of great gains in that area. One thing we should keep in mind is that Duceppe needs only to run a campaign in one province, a fact that allows him to get much more exposure than the other leaders.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:32:28 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 19:32
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Stephen Harper is the most trustworthy leader by far!
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:43:00 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 19:43
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Conservative Party and Undecided would be my two choices for if the election was held today.
Stephen Harper would make the best federal leader. The most competent leader, and the best vision for Canada by far.
Conservatives all the way.
[updated Thu Sep 25 19:45:44 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 19:45
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Chris, Ontarion,
If the number stay steady Nic, will the Conservatives win a majority?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:10:29 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:10
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Mr_Michael
When you poll people are you using the same group of people? These numbers are in such a state of flex, how can you truely gauge the true picture.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:16:47 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:16
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Chris, Ontario
When looking on election night, how many seats is a majority?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:17:26 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:17
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ed84
I can't understand why people don't pick up on this hypocrisy from the Conservatives.
The latest comes from the crime front and giving stricter sentences for 14yr old youth. Two years ago they raised the age of consent from 14 to 16yrs old. I have no issues with protecting youth, that is how it should be, but that move two years ago suggested that they think youth at that age don't have the judgment and are too easily coerced into different situations. So how would committing a crime be any different? If you think youth don't have the judgment and are easily coerced into making bad decisions at that age, why is committing a violent crime any different?
This is the same party that talks about safety and safe communities but they are not for gun control.
Ermin
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:17:40 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:17
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Craig
Hi Nik, great show as always.
I have two questions:
1. Does Nanos poll the northern territories, or is it statistically impossible given the size and population? Do you have a general idea of the breakdown.
2. How is the leadership index calculated?
Thanks,
Craig
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:22:00 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:22
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fortescue
TPQ where are you??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:30:13 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:30
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Cousinj
Hi Nik,
Will Nanos come out with the numbers based on age groups at any time during the election?
Thanks
JM
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:30:48 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:30
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John999
How do you feel when you hear candidates say they don't "look" or rely on the polls that you provide and only the final vote matters?
Does it seem silly to you?
- John
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:31:29 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:31
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My, things are not working out as they should. But I will never give up hope for human decency until its over, Mr. Harper hasn't a decent bone in his body. Not one. He's mean and vindictive and on and on.. This man would set us back about a century! He's reallty dangerous.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:32:28 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:32
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Mr_Michael
Nik,
Do your numbers for GTA show if the Conservatives have made any significant in roads into breaking the Liberal strangle hold on the GTA.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:33:38 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:33
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Lori
Hi Nick. Wondering about the large proportion of undecided/unsure in the Leadership Index questions. Do you screen out respondents who indicate they have no intention of voting. There are many Canadians (unfortunately) that are apathetic to our political process and if they are not even interested in voting, will likely have no real opinion on the competence, trustworthiness and vision of the leaders.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:35:14 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:35
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Luc VNO
Nik,
What kind of situation do you think it would take to move the non-voting 40% of Canadians to the ballot box??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:36:13 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:36
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Chris, Ontario,
What are the key battlegrounds around the GTA and what are the numbers for Oakville-Burlington Regions Nik.
Thanks!
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:36:56 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:36
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Luc VNO
Nik,
What kind of situation do you think it would take to move the non voting 40% of Canadians to the ballot box??
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:37:47 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:37
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mcfly
What do you think the election would be like with a publication ban on polls?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:41:49 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:41
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spstarr
Hi Nik,
As an addition to a previous question. If you identify yourself as Nanos in the survey, is it possible some people might try to cause a skew in your poll vs other polls by giving different answers to somewhat influence other people when they see the Nanos poll results?
Thanks,
Shawn.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:43:05 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:43
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skoblin
Nik,
considering the large majorities the Liberals had in their ridings in Montreal in the last election, is there a realistic chance of the NDP actually translating their apparent support in Montreal into actual victories, and if so, which ridings do you see this happening in?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:43:23 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:43
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Cousinj
Hi Nik,
Will Nanos do a poll on which television station voters watch during the election campaign or on election night?
Thanks,
JM
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:45:37 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:45
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John999
How do the 2 of you remain neutral and unbiased about your personal party preferences when presenting the news and statistics?
Is this sometimes difficult for you?
What kind of requirements were put upon you when you were hired for CPAC?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:47:20 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:47
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goles
Hi Nik, Great show.
It seems there is a tendency for the parties to rely on one of two policy levers (i.e., spending vs regulation/legislation) in their daily annoucements. The Liberal and NDP seem to emphasize spending while the Conservatives seem to emphasize regulations/legislation (e.g., pollution penalties, prison sentences). In an economic uncertain time do you think that this is having an impact on voters impressions?
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:51:45 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:51
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Lori
Nik - do you have any sense of how conflicted people may be when their local representative is not affiliated with the same party of the leader they feel is best suited to run the country? Clearly people rank Harper as the strongest leader yet, particularly in areas like SW Ontario, we like our local Liberal incumbents.
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:54:34 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:54
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much
Nik,
Why are the Bloc not being considered as traitors?
Thx
[updated Thu Sep 25 20:58:59 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 20:58
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Informed
Clearly Stephen Harper he is speaking about real issues and making small spending programs announcements while talking about the slowing economy. He is dominating the centre and right position while the other parties are fighting over the left of centre voters.
[updated Thu Sep 25 22:25:31 EDT 2008]
25 Sep 22:25
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a_peters93
These polling numbers seem to be jumping around a lot in the early going of this election. Do polling numbers tend to settle out after the leaders debate or do they settle out at all? And secondly, the Prime Minister has stated during his election campaign that he refuses to speculate on current polls as every poll he has seen as a federal politican has never accurately translated to the makeup of the elected house. Does the Prime Minister's statement accurate reflect what you have seen in your polling results over the years?
[updated Fri Sep 26 03:33:58 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 03:33
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MRM
Some extracts from a very interesting article in today’s G&M:
Globe and Mail Update
September 25, 2008 at 9:55 PM EDT
How damaging is it when members of your party begin to publicly turn on you, as is happening to Stephane Dion? And what can Mr. Dion do about it?
Greg Lyle (former chief of staff for premiers Gary Filmon and Gordon Campbell) It is never helpful to have your own party members voicing criticism. It is downright devastating to be criticized by your own team at a time when people outside the party are criticizing you as well.
Scott Reid (former communications director for Paul Martin): No campaign wants to take on friendly fire. It's distracting. It's unhelpful. And it's not a sign of success. But the question of how seriously it should be regarded depends upon two factors: How serious are the voices speaking out, and how serious are their criticisms?
Gerald Caplan (former NDP campaign manager): As I'm sure everyone concedes, the milk of human compassion flows through the veins of all socialists. So part of me really, really feels for Stephane Dion's public humiliation. Under his stewardship, Canada's Natural Governing Party seems well on the road to the worst result in its history. John Turner plummeted to 28 per cent in 1984. The core Liberal vote is usually deemed to be about 30 per cent. As of this moment, Mr. Dion will be lucky to get much above 25 per cent.
[updated Fri Sep 26 10:20:05 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 10:20
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Stephen Harper is the best Prime Minister, I would only vote Conservative and Stephen Harper for the most trustworthy, competent, leadership, and the best vision for Canada!
Conservative all the way!
Chris, Ontario
[updated Fri Sep 26 13:11:15 EDT 2008]
26 Sep 13:11
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rm99
DION=PALIN
This is our KATIE COURIC interview! NO ANSWERS FOR SIMPLE QUESTIONS!!
SEE THE SHOCKING DION VIDEO
http://www.stephentaylor.ca
Dion’s done. He’s going to get hammered in English Canada with this. Kind of ironic how he kept criticizing Harper over the last week but couldn’t say what he would do.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:15:32 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 23:15
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