CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, GP 6 (ending September 22)

Guess the platform launch didn't go over as well as planned.

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:02:08 EDT 2008]

Has any poll, ever, had the Liberals running 4th in Quebec?

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:06:16 EDT 2008]

If the NDP keeps climbing in QC:
1. At minimum Bloc could take the island of Montreal up the middle OR they completely supplant the liberals in Montreal.
If they keep climbing even further:
2. They start competing for the federalist vote outside montreal, eating away at the conservatives and let the bloc back in big time.

Looks like the LPC is toast long term in QC and the Bloc has started trending upwards.

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:11:04 EDT 2008]

Nik - throughout the campaign your polling numbers have shown the Greens running 5-6 points behind what the other major polls say (EKOS, Decima, Ipsos-Reid), with those voters showing up as Liberal voters in your numbers. Do you have any idea why that might be?

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:14:30 EDT 2008]

I think the Liberal campaign is officially in trouble. East of Ontario is shaping up to be a very nasty picture for them if things don't get jolted around very quickly.

Yeah, yeah, I know, third gear, then second, yadda yadda yadda... Three weeks from today it's over, and that means every day counts from here on in. It's first gear or go home time.

We can expect some very serious manoeuvering on the strategic vote front, but the fact that the Conservative vote can't get convincingly over the majority government mark means that it is going to be a tough sell. If Mr. Layton gets his leadership numbers a little higher, the strategic voting equation could also be a nasty surprise for the Liberals.

Sure is going to be an interesting debate, eh?

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:15:58 EDT 2008]

I hate to say I told you so but....

heh :) I guess the rogue numbers just fell off the books, and as i predicted we're back up to 38 percent.

Also as i predicted - the NDP numbers actually seem to be real. Huge for ndp supporters - that's better than the ndp has ever done. They took about 42 seats last time they were that high on election day (mark emery not included of course).

Obviously the dope issue hit jack a little, he's down in the popularity ratings. But i suspect that's temporary.

With the ndp within 6 points of the libs, and with the libs having played all their cards, it really might turn out to be a race.

Meanwhile, the CPC is back where they were and harper has yet to release the final details of his platform.

I'm still going with my original seat projections at this point. and once again I doubt we'll see major change until the debates, just before and after which the last 'big move' will occur until the day before the election.

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:25:16 EDT 2008]

Some interesting results. This supports the "one rogue day theory".

Based on the discussion yesterday, it looks like the polling numbers from 2 days ago were an anomaly. The numbers are reverting back to where they were as that day drops out of the average.

A few observations on these numbers - it's interesting to compare the results of the different polling companies:
1) Nik has the Conservatives at 38%, which is right where Harris/Decima, EKOS, and Angus Reid have them.

2) Nik Nanos' numbers for the Liberals are back down to 27%, which is closer to where the other 3 companies have them (24%). Now, Nik has built up credibility with me in previous elections, which leads me to believe his numbers generally, but I'm surprised to see the other 3 companies with consistently different results

3) Nanos has the NDP at 21%, which is still a couple of percentage points higher than the other polls. Either way, the NDP always seem to perform worse on election day than they expect to.

4) The 6% for the Green party is significantly lower than where the other companies all have them (12%). I really can't see the Greens getting 12% on election day.

As always, the trends are what's important, not the results from one day.

See all polls here:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/419595

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:27:31 EDT 2008]

Unless I am wrong in my assumptions a 38 for the cpc on the 3 day average means that the one day total for Monday note must have been 45. This is based on the fact that the lower numbers on the weekend must have been caused by a 31 rating on Saturday, which was discussed on this blog yesterday.

But a jump to 45 overnight seems as unlikely as a drop to 31 was. Maybe the 3 notes of polling are not equally weighted in the average?

Care to comment Nik, or is this proprietary information?

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:33:40 EDT 2008]

On the issue of variation among polls:

I haven't bothered looking into it which ones are doing it and which aren't, but a key difference in polling methods that can alter perfomance of low ranked parties is prompting.

Some pollsters do a so-called top-of-mind question, asking voters their preference without listing the options. Others do a "which of these" sort of question. The Greens, for example, tend to do better when a prompt is offered. I think the Nanos numbers are top-of-mind.

The other issue is the factoring in of undecided but leaning voters. Nanos doesn't do it (I think), but others do. If one large party is having a particularly hard time holding its traditional vote, it can affect the numbers in failry strange ways.

Another issue I think is at play is technological. It is getting increasingly difficult to use telephone directories to get unbiased samples. This is especially true for urban and younger demographics. This may explain results for internet based surveys deviating from others.

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:45:39 EDT 2008]

It is most interesting that the Liberal numbers did not improve with the Party platform announcement and program costing. Dion was very uncomfortable explaining the program and equally ill at ease answering reporters questions which he did not seem to understand.

As the costs are throughly analyzed the platform will fall into further disrepute.

[updated Tue Sep 23 14:45:59 EDT 2008]

Seat projections - cpc 145 lib 75 ndp 45 and bloc 45

This poll puts the CPC just shy of a majority, but with the libs that's as good as. If the libs go down another 4 points and the ndp raises 4 layton will likley be able to claim he will form opposition. That's not a lot of points to move.

[updated Tue Sep 23 15:25:11 EDT 2008]

I wish Nik had been doing this in 1993. Aside from being an historic election result (utter destruction of ruling party), the polls that year were very interesting. The Reform Party consistently polled at 7-8%, but on election day they more than doubled that support. It was as if a Bradley Effect was causing the voters to lie to pollsters - maybe they were embarrassed.

A similar effect (though smaller) occurred again in 1997. The Reform Party polled poorly and did well.

[updated Tue Sep 23 17:42:40 EDT 2008]

Very bad news for the Libs that they didn't even get a tiny bounce from their platform release.
I have to agree with the theory that one rogue day dropped off the numbers as opposed to a massive jump for the Cons. But, any way the Libs slice it, they've failed to spark any momentum whatsoever.

As I'm still undecided myself, I am fascinated by the undecided vote.
How much of the undecided eventually decide?
How many of them just stay home?

[updated Tue Sep 23 21:55:41 EDT 2008]

There is a realignment about to take place in Canada. Harper will win a majority and it still too close to call as to who will be the official opposition.
The opposition are pulling out all the stops to portray Harper as scary. However, the billions of dollars in promises undermines their credibility significantly particularly when they are arguing Canada is in deficit.
The Liberal platform yesterday was a joke. A $12 billion black hole to be covered by reallocations. That is not new revenue so something will have to be cut. Guess what it will be....military spending. Suddenly the carbon tax is not going to raise $15 billion over 4 years but a whopping $40 billion with only $16 billion in personal income tax cuts. By the time 4 years rolls around the middle class will be broke but the poor people will sure be happy.
Canadians are watching Dion on the campaign trail and are asking themselves "is this guy for real". Promising billions day after day, promoting a massive increase in taxes and trying to villify Harper in his garbled syntax.
Canadians know instinctively Dion is not who they want to manage the country and represent us on the international stage.
The whines from the opposition parties today shows that Harper has the edge and they are fighting to hold on to what they currently have. That will be tough for the Liberals and they could find themselves no longer official opposition aftere Oct. 14th.

[updated Tue Sep 23 22:21:22 EDT 2008]

Interesting nanos poll result - Canadians trust harper to deliver on promises more.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-SU08-T329E.pdf

Question: Which of the federal parties to you believe has the most credibility when it comes to the likelyhood of keeping their campaign promises?

CPC - 30

lib - 15

ndp - 14

Bloc - 6

green - 5

This is probably part of the problem Dion is facing - Canadians seem to feel the Liberals cannot be trusted to keep their promises.

[updated Wed Sep 24 01:21:27 EDT 2008]

I'm very struck by the steadily narrowing gap between the LIB and NDP numbers and by the widening gap between the NDP and GP numbers.

When Nanos began the CPAC tracking poll Sept. 11, the LIBs were at 32%, 19 points ahead of the NDP at 13%. So the NDP attracted only 41% of the backing for the LIBs.

When the Sept. 23 figures were released, the LIBs were at 27%, only 6 points ahead of the NDP at 21%. So the NDP attracted 78% of the backing for the LIBs.

Back on Sept. 11, the NDP was at 13%, only 4 points ahead of the GP at 9%. So the GP attracted 69% of NDP backing.

By Sept. 23, the NDP was at 21%, 15 points ahead of the GP at 6%. So the GP attracted only 29% of NDP backing.

There is obviously no guarantee that the NDP will continue to do relatively much better than the LIBs while the GP appears stalled. But the progress over the past two weeks has transformed the absolute and relative strength of the NDP.

[updated Wed Sep 24 01:35:05 EDT 2008]

Flash back to Mr. Harper's early August meeting with his most trusted political advisers.

Trusted Pollster: Mr. Harper, you have to call an election right away and make it the shortest campaign possible.

Stephen Harper: How so? I ran on fixed election dates. October, 2009, remember?

TP: No offence, Sir, but you have peaked. Your best chance of winning a majority is right now.

Political Advisor: TP’s right, Sir. We are going to lose the by-elections and, if Parliament resumes, we face continuing attacks from all opposition parties. The media will have a hay day with the scandals. The economy and the war are tanking. Obama is almost certain to win down south. And he’s not one of us.

SH: But I am the best leader up here. I’m strong and decisive. Look at the numbers.

PA: That’s why the time is now. We have Dion where we want him and, with a few finishing touches, we can destroy him and the Liberals too.

SH: Really?

TP: We’ve got him where it hurts, Sir. The media and Canadians generally have rejected Mr. Dion. He’s perceived as a nerd, a wimp, the classic “Joe Clark” treatment. May I take a little credit for our attack ads on his leadership and character right from the starting gate?

SH: Yeah. For sure. Well done. But what if the GG doesn’t agree and asks the Opposition to try it their way?

PA: Nah, she’s a newbie, not even certain why she got the job. She’ll do what you tell her to do.

SH: And we can win?

TP: We can’t win later. The PM is the last Bush poodle and even Bush is history in a few months. It’s now or never, Sir.

SH: But Canadians don’t want an election. We're doing alright. How do we explain that away?

PA: No problem, Sir. We explain that Parliament isn’t working weeks in advance, leak privileged information to our friends in the media….. that sort of thing. A week after the election is called, no one will remember why we’re having one.

[updated Wed Sep 24 05:57:06 EDT 2008]

Have you ever seen a party close an 11 point gap with 3 weeks left?

[updated Wed Sep 24 08:16:23 EDT 2008]

It would seem that Harper is the most level headed of all the leaders. May and Dion are racing off in different directions without it seems a clear sense of direction. Duceppe is irrelevant outside of quebec. And poor mister Layton is suffering from dillusions of become Dear Leader. If it were not for the media playing there part it wouldn't even be a fair fight. The conservatives have given us good governance for over 2 years and have the right direction and policies to get the job done. Harper gets a majority !!!!

[updated Sun Sep 28 02:38:46 EDT 2008]