Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their five-point lead over the Liberals at 35% national support. The Liberals stand at 30%, followed by the NDP at 22%, the Bloc Québécois at 7% and the Green Party at 6%. In Ontario, the Conservatives have slipped below the Liberals, while the NDP is gaining momentum in the province, and also in Quebec where the race remains tight between the Conservatives and the Bloc. Stephen Harper is up on the leadership index to 99 points, some 43 points ahead of Jack Layton who comes in at second with 56 points. Stéphane Dion’s current score is 40 points, followed by Gilles Duceppe at 17 points and Elizabeth May at 16.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 20, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=986, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 35% (-1)
- Liberal Party 30% (-1)
- NDP 22% (+2)
- BQ 7% (NC)
- Green Party 6% (-1)
- Undecided 18% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 13% (-2)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 3% (+1)
- None of them 10% (+1)
- Unsure 16% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 99 (+6)
- Jack Layton 56 (-1)
- Stephane Dion 40 (-3)
- Gilles Duceppe 17 (+8)
- Elizabeth May 16 (+3)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Holy Crap look at the NDP!! :) Wow - that would give the ndp about 50 seats! ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 22 Sep 14:05
Good news there for the CPC. Obviously polling numbers were back up again last n... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 22 Sep 14:23
Can anyone make any sense from these results. The rolling poll supposedly interv... more
larryl (Ontario) 22 Sep 15:07
French is not a race. It is a language and a culture. If you are going to be so ... more
MRM (Manitoba) 24 Sep 08:26
There is also an Elections Canada lawsuit pending against the LPC to try and get... more
MRM (Manitoba) 24 Sep 08:29
I agree. I observed the "team" holding Dion's hand today at the press conference... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 22 Sep 21:05
Comments
Foxer
Holy Crap look at the NDP!! :)
Wow - that would give the ndp about 50 seats! That's the second 2 point rise for them in a row!
The libs are still more or less within their margin of error and the cpc is obviously going to have low figures for a couple of days due to that one day of very low numbers, but i can't believe what the ndp are doing.
That's pretty stunning - could it be accurate? That would be better than they've ever done in history!
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:05:49 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 14:05
72 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Good news there for the CPC. Obviously polling numbers were back up again last nite.
To fall from 38 to 36 in one day, saturday's polling sample must have come in at 31 percent.
If it had stayed that low, if that wasn't a rogue result, then today we'd have been at about 33 percent. For it to hit 35, the cpc must have polled around 38 percent last night again to give that as a three day average.
I was just a hair worried there yesterday :) but i was pretty sure it was just a rogue day. It happens. It's pretty rare to see someone lose 7 points overnight.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:23:59 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 14:23
73 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Waht aload of garbage..the fact is they have been down for the last three days. Thr \lib ads are just starting to kick in and they are dragging the NDP along for now.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:28:32 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 14:28
Foxer
ROFL - are you incapable of doing basic arithmatic?
They polled 39 39 and 38. Then they polled 36. So - in order to fall that far on a three day average they must have polled at least 31 percent.
That means they must have polled 38 or so last night to average at 35. :)
Rofl - i hope dion used better math than YOU'VE managed when he prepared his budget :)
Watch this - i predict a sudden magical increase 2 days from now! (when saturday's 31 percent falls off the books) :) Think i'm psychic? :)
Tomorrow's numbers will be about the same - because friday's will fall off (about 38 percent) and saturdays will still be there and last night's will still be there, and tonites will be about 38 percent again. we'll see it tomorrow around 34 - 36. Then suddenly the next day it'll 'jump' back up to about 38.
Geez man - learn to count!
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:36:28 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 14:36
fortescue
Foxer
Very interesting comments. If true I am impressed with the logic. Is it that simple how the rolling poll works? Does Nik disclose individual daily numbers there. I suspect he is the only one who could confirm your comments, but it does make logical sense. The NDP number is impressive, should I be selling my tar sands shares? I sense a moritorium coming. (Alberta will separate if that happens)
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:01:30 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 15:01
Foxer
He doesn't disclose individual numbers - but yes its that simple. Every night 400 people are called - and the three day total is added up to give today's "score" based on 1200 people over 3 days.
If the previous numbers had been going up or down a lot we'd have a harder time knowing what happened, but because they were so steady we can make a pretty accurate guess (within a point or two).
The ndp numbers are impressive - but there's no real chance of them forming gov't. There's no real chance of the libs forming gov't either. If the ndp numbers are indeed accurate, and the cpc numbers were a blip, mathimatically that means the libs are going to go down when it all corrects. That means the libs are 'artificially high' right now.
It's pretty unlikely after all that the cpc bled to the NDP, isn't it :)
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:21:14 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 15:21
larryl
fortescue. There are far too many Easterners in Alberta to worry about seperation. In order for that to happen the Oil bubble would have to burst again and they would all have to leave but since there are no jobs in the east they would simply stay where they are and collect welfare from the Oilberta government that has so much saved from the Trust fund. I forgot they got rid of that. Back to the poll numbers. The CPC went from 39 to 38 to 36 to 35. Using our friend Sharp's method in order to drop it would be necessary to poll lower each day. 39+38+31=36. 38+36+32 =35. In order to drop to 35 they would have polled at 32% since they were at 38 and 36 the two days before. Of course some try to spin it to indicate an increase to 38% on the third day but numbers don't lie. If they were at 38 and 36 for two days then polling 38 % on the third day would have seen them go up rather than down to 35. The threat of Oilberta seperating has been reduced since the population there has doubled in twenty years and most of that is Canadians from east of the Manitoba border.
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:56:46 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 15:56
Foxer
So - using your math they would have had to poll 39+38+31 to get to 36.
But - if that happened - how would it be possible to poll 38+36+32 = 35? If they polled 31 in the first poll - then the second polls first two numbers would be 38 +31 followed by the next nights numbers. the 39 drops off the end as the poll 'rolls forward'. .
So we know it's 38 + 31 + x = 35. So that would be 38 on day three - which was last night. It's a three day running total.
It's pretty simple. I guess it must be hard for someone like you who's used to liberal math :)
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:29:08 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:29
kschell
Foxer, I have been tracking the numbers in a spreadsheet and I agree with you, the only way a 36 could have come up was if they polled a 31. And to get 35 on last night's poll they would have had to be back up to between 37 and 38 (since we are not seeing decimal percentages can't be more accurate than that).
Though even if the number comes up 38 tonight, we will not see much change tomorrow as the 31 is still in the mix (31 + 38 + 38) / 3 = 35.667. So likely a 36 tomorrow, then back up to normal again.
No trend here, just a statistical blip.
TPQ, take a chill pill. Nothing in the polls so far indicates the Liberals will even get the number of seats they had at dissolution. They will lose some in Quebec for sure, and we can only hope some in Ontario too.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:43:48 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:43
Foxer
Well that's about right kschell.
The real 'easter egg' here for me is the ndp - what the hell is going on there? The numbers aren't as easy to read, they could have blipped or they could actually be going up - when the saturday poll falls off the books, are we going to see a radical drop in the libs and a surprise from the ndp? It's possible - get your predictions in now :) Too close to say for sure, but it has the 'feel' of a strong ndp gain.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:50:57 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:50
kschell
There could be some polarization going on. The libs really seem to have lost their way under Dion, so I could see the leftmost wing of their party moving to the NDP. Though we did see something like this in 2004, where the NDP was well ahead of their traditional 15-17% level (can't remember the exact numbers) but the vote leaked back to the libs in the last week when the media started talking about the CPC winning. Could happen again if there is too much talk about the M word.
But hey, I say, go Jack! Every vote for the NDP is a vote the libs don't get.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:18:15 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:18
Foxer
Well the M word has been in the newspaper since day one - we've seen numerous articles and news reports saying the cpc is in reach of a majority. Yet the ndp numbers have been growing stronger.
If i'm correct in my post below (guessing at the ndp's real strength) then there is a real chance we could see a flow OUT of the libs and INTO the ndp this time around, instead of the other way around in 2004.
Back then nobody believed for a moment the ndp could outperform the libs. And everyone was scared of harper.
Now - harper is leading the pack in 'best pm' opinion and the fear factor is largely gone, and there are several articles wondering if layton will beat the Libs and saying it's possible.
And this time a lot of people feel dion didn't do anything when he was in opposition anyway. So what's the point of a strong liberal opposition when it can't actually oppose anything?
If they move within 4 or 5 points of each other - people are going to start really wondering if the ndp can be a better choice than the libs.
I think if jack really hammers dion on his failure to vote during the debates, he'll wind up getting a lot of the left liberal support.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:28:47 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:28
kschell
At least the NDP is a known quantity and they are consistent in their policies - though I (and most Canadians) believe they are wrong.
The libs on the other hand are a purely opportunistic party that makes up policy based on which way the wind is blowing. And they have chosen a leader who is downright scary.
It will be interesting to see what shakes out on Oct. 14!
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:27:03 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 10:27
Foxer
Well i think a lot of people on the left are agreeing with that sentiment. They'd rather go with layton despite his left wing approach than go with dion, who will say anything to get elected and then do what he wants.
At least you know what you're getting with latyon.
[updated Tue Sep 23 11:08:04 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 11:08
lui
Not sure if I know what I would be getting with Layton other than higher tax's. After that CTV interview I certainly know what I would be getting with Dion. The man does not understand basic English. We deserve better.
Imagine, he accussed the interviewer of tricking him. Pretty weak stuff, how would he stand up in a Free Trade Debate? Cause it wont be in French.
[updated Sun Oct 12 15:13:45 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 15:13
Foxer
Well it may not be in English either if it's a trade agreement with china or something, but to me the bigger problem was he didn't seem to be able to get his head around the concept or to have an answer to the question. And this isn't the first time this sort of thing has come up with him. If he doesn't have a scripted answer in his head, he doesn't know what to do. So the short answer seems to be he hasn't even THOUGHT about what he'd have done different, he's just trying to pretend harper did something wrong when dion himself has no plan.
[updated Sun Oct 12 15:47:12 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 15:47
westerner (suspended)
You need a math lesson in rolling averages.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:51:26 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:51
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I know how to count and I know how to look at momentum;two different things...the cons have lost steam and the libs are picking up and will leavr vapor trails soon. Your mumble jumble number crunching is just like all the other pollsters numbers..... a bunch of garbage because their data bases are not up to snuff.
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:40:06 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 15:40
Foxer
ROFLMAO :) - well here's a clue for you then, the party with momentum at the moment isn't the libs at all - it's the ndp :) The cpc appears to be pretty steady and the libs have softened.
And if you think all pollster's are 'a bunch of garbage', why are you here at all?
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:49:38 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 15:49
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I only follow NIk and I've been clear on that. I do take bits and pieces of others but only to show how out to lunch they are.
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:57:01 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 15:57
Foxer
Well you sure were touting the 'battleground ridings' polls the other day when they favoured the libs - i notice you sure aren't now :)
Nic's numbers say the CPC must have been up last night for the numbers to be what they are today. THat's a simple fact. A single 'rogue' day affects the poll numbers for 3 days.
All the other polls have the libs way down. Which will likely be the case in two days time here as well.
Think about it. The cpc is down and the ndp is up - do you REALLY think that the CPC bled support to the ndp, and not the libs? If it went to the libs - their numbers would be UP by about 6 points, not 2.
enjoy the false hope :) You've got one more day of it - the cpc should poll about the same tomorrow and then jump up. When they do, it'll likely be the libs that fall.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:02:05 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:02
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I just took a snapshot of that hilarious post for posterity to shove it back at you.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:10:51 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:10
Foxer
Heh :) - well you be sure to read it several times election night as the results are coming in bud :) Of course - it's true it could be me that's embarrased - if dion gets below 50 seats i'm going to look silly saying he might get closer to 70 :)
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:16:18 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:16
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
note to self...stop feeding the trolls
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:18:51 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:18
Foxer
If you don't feed yourself - you'll die of hunger won't you?
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:21:24 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:21
westerner (suspended)
What a weak response, Parnel
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:57:28 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:57
westerner (suspended)
We will await anxiously for the Liberals to "leave vapor trails" When can we expect these trails to start? You have been promising this for several days now.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:55:05 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:55
Foxer
Are you kidding? With that big gas guzzling jet they rented you can see the vapour trails every time they go overhead. :)
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:00:52 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:00
westerner (suspended)
TPQ isn't very good with math.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:47:40 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:47
Foxer
No, apperently not. :)
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:01:03 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:01
rofl, put down the evil neo con tool (pen and paper).
Only one truth and party need apply.
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:29:58 EDT 2008]
03 Oct 12:29
westerner (suspended)
The Liberal ads are very scary. They are "just starting to kick i" and voters will stream to the Liberal cause. What a load of BS.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:46:25 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:46
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Oh but negative ads from the harpercrites can kick in but Lib ones can't........ stupid is as stupid does.
Wait until you see the rest of the Lib ads that are being prepared. I told you last week that the libs were just warming up and would explode out of the gate once they had secured their base and for the most part that is done. Now sit back and watch them destroy Harper piece by piece and we will enjoy the moment when harper blows his cool and gets really nasty for which Dion is also prepared.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:24:22 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:24
westerner (suspended)
I am waiting with baited breath for them to 'explode out of the gate". I am pleased to note that you recognize that, until now, they were left in the starting gates.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:44:42 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:44
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
another stupid comment...they just didn't get their national program underway by design
Get used to this...you will soon love the slogan:
a richer, fairer, greener Canada
that's the liberal way that has worked for most of the last 75 years where liberal years were good years and tory tmes were tough times and now add ignorant times to that.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:48:51 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:48
westerner (suspended)
They didn't get their national program underway until 16 days into the election. How stupid! Who would vote for a bunch of politicians who were that slow to get the message out?
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:59:17 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:59
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
yea you are the pro in election campaigns..........a tory genius
[updated Mon Sep 22 19:53:24 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 19:53
westerner (suspended)
I recorded that I agree with your statement. Thank you very much.
[updated Mon Sep 22 21:07:54 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 21:07
Foxer
Well it doesn't take a genious to figure out that dion's losing this fight, partly due to a lack of money but mostly due to horrible horrible planning and a campaign which has been dubbed by liberals as the 'worst liberal campaign ever'.
Well he's shot his load pretty much now - after this it's all 'defending his position' which will be challenging to do for three weeks, they're already picking his plan apart.
[updated Tue Sep 23 11:10:31 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 11:10
westerner (suspended)
The best PM? Harper 34%, Dion 13%. The Conservative ads have kicked in! The Conservatives led the polls.
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:03:55 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 18:03
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Hey genius, Remember that HARPER was in the high 40's earlier; We are not depending solely on our leader to drive the bus. He's the team leader but not its only part. We drive on multiple cylinders and are not a one stroke engine belching GHG.
A good political team is better than a one man dictatorship any day.
[updated Mon Sep 22 20:08:57 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 20:08
westerner (suspended)
I agree. I observed the "team" holding Dion's hand today at the press conference. He was a disaster not understanding reporters questions and having to refer to McCallum and Brison to explain things. It was very embarrassing for someone who wants to be PM. There is only one PM not 3 or 4.
[updated Mon Sep 22 21:05:58 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 21:05
Foxer
Yeah - the 'team' thing is hurting him.
It's saying 'i'm not strong enough to stand on my own two feet." Not what he wants to portray right now.
[updated Mon Sep 22 21:13:18 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 21:13
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
And that's the problem with having Harper as PM......a dictatorship of the minority and in his case he will only really represent about 5% of the voters because of his narrow right wing base that funds him.
Dion presents very well and is very solid..he suffers from attack aditis but they are getting around that issue.
[updated Mon Sep 22 21:16:26 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 21:16
Peggy
A serious question for anyone: if the carbon tax is going to pay for all these Liberal promises, we better hope the carbon emissions don't go down as there goes the revenue to handle all this or am I missing something???
[updated Mon Sep 22 20:46:54 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 20:46
Foxer
If carbon emissions go down, carbon (or other) taxes will have to go up to compensate.
Dion is promising to tax us 1 dollar on all the carbon used and return 1 dollar. If carbon use goes down 50 percent, he will have to raise carbon taxes 100 percent to still have that dollar to give us back.
Or - not give us the dollar.
[updated Mon Sep 22 21:11:59 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 21:11
bluestar_74
Revenue neutral can only mean one thing, you only get back what is taken in.....it doesn't mean more taxes. It starts to shift our income taxes from a labour taxing system to an energy based system, to improve our environment and make us more competitive in the world. We have to reduce our dependency on energy; our standard of living will be reduced further otherwise.
[updated Tue Sep 23 09:46:53 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 09:46
Foxer
Well the problem is he didn't write it that way bluestar. And most people won't even get back what's put in.
He has a list of promises - and he has the new green tax to pay for it. The problem is the two are not indexed. If carbon use goes down he will have to raise money somewhere to pay for his promises. Or - start breaking them.
The OTHER problem is that taxpayers DON'T get back what they put in. As near as i can tell (and it's very vague) a lot of middle and upper people will get LESS than they put in even if things go well.
So - for them it's a new tax straight out of the box. Not 'revenue neutral'.
This shouldn't be a surprise - dion can't even pay off his own party's debts for the leadership convention. The guy is not a good fiscal manager.
We do need to do something about the environment - but we need a good plan. This isn't an example of that/.
[updated Tue Sep 23 09:56:06 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 09:56
Revene netural to the government not the polluter.
The green shift is designed to change behaviour so you pollute less and make those who pollute pay more what part is not clear?
LOL
That is why a calculator, pen or paper, functioning grey matter have deduced the taxpayer is going to get the GREEN SHAFT to pay for the social re-engineering desired by those living in urban centres who need more ARTS funding.
Okay cheap shot...my bad.
If I paint my house, put in an artistic inground pool can I apply for a grant from the Federal Government because it will make for a richer happier Canada? Or at least my wife!
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:39:05 EDT 2008]
03 Oct 12:39
Foxer
Well obviously.
The problem is dion took a relatively simple idea and made it insanely complex.
This should have been simple - like reductions in payroll taxes matched exactly by increases in carbon taxes. Thus companies are not 'hurt' by this - they are 'revenue neutral'. But they are encouraged to change by the fact they could SAVE money by reducing energy use, and not by cutting staff.
Dion's convoluted plan tries to be everything to everyone and the math just doesn't add up, which is why he can't give any targets for energy reduction or carbon output. It's a disaster of a plan.
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:46:34 EDT 2008]
03 Oct 12:46
bluestar_74
The carbon tax has nothing to do with the other Liberal promises, it is revenue neutral. So whatever the tax takes in from polluters it is given back to Canadians through income tax reductions. If we rid Canada of pollution completely (I know that's not possible) and collect zero dollars from the carbon tax, then our taxes will see no reduction. The other promises in the campaign are tied to the Conservative's economic growth projections. The Liberals have said that the introduction of their promises will be tied to economic growth, so that we don't go into a deficit situation.
[updated Tue Sep 23 09:00:58 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 09:00
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
bluestar...good post but you'll never convince western greed with your logic.....these are dumb and dumber types who can only slur liberals and can't back up any argument logically. The tory war room is down a couple of people from too many slanderous things said so these guys have no blogs to copy their viscous stuff from and they are useless on their own.
[updated Tue Sep 23 09:50:46 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 09:50
Foxer
ROFL - yeah - well you sure proved what a 'logical' person you are, and how you as a liberal would never 'slur' people :)
Liberal hypocracy at it's best :) Attack people and scream how terrible they are because they're the type who would attack people :) Pot - meet kettle. Kettle - pot.
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:01:34 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 10:01
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
well much more logical than you would be pushing your gun stuff in Finland today.
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:14:59 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 10:14
Foxer
Up to a point - if even one of those teachers had been trained and licensed to carry a defensive firearm, there'd probably be only one dead.
In the states there's been 2 recent cases where armed students or teachers stopped a killer like that before his rampage clamied a lot of lives.
But you know what's funny? Finland has very strict gun laws. Guess that kinda proves the point. Stupid gun laws cost lives, they don't save lives.
Oh - but i forgot. You'd rather see dead students and raped/murdered women than allow people to do the same thing 60,000 cops do safely every day. How silly of me - yes, that's much better.
[updated Tue Sep 23 11:05:40 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 11:05
Foxer
But again - thats not how it's written.
And - further, it isn't 'neutral' - it's also a 'wealth shift'. So - some people will benefit and a lot of people will pay more.
And it doesn't take into account the COST of the tax. Both directly and indirectly. It's not possible for it to be revenue neutral.
And explain to me how it's 'revenue neutral' for people like disabled folk who don't pay any tax at the moment, but will have to bear the higher prices for heating, food and transport?
And yes the liberals have said they will 'slow down' delivery of promises based on economic growth - which simply means they will not keep the promises they are making and will instead just re promise them again next election - like they've been doing with childcare for 15 years.
Which of the promises will dion axe first if he can't afford it? Where is that in the plan? Will it be the 'tax rebates' we're supposed to get from the green shift? i'd bet it will be.
And if dion is so sure we won't go into deficit - why did it take asking him that question 5 different times to get that answer?
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:00:14 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 10:00
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
more mutt and jeff BS
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:15:17 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 10:15
Foxer
And another intelligent reply from the liberal side of the equasion :)
This is why you guys are going to lose the election - no intelligent thought, just lash out.
[updated Tue Sep 23 11:06:39 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 11:06
Peggy
OK-further to that, who measures the pollution to see if it is dropping or increasing?
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:18:20 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 10:18
westerner (suspended)
There will be a huge increase in civil servants required to monitor the carbon outputs and collect carbon taxes. Where has this been costed? How many civil servants will be required to administer this? Think about the Gun Registry.
[updated Tue Sep 23 12:05:30 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 12:05
Foxer
It is estimated by the amount of energy canada produces and consumes. We know how much gas we're using, etc.
Of course there is no target here - so it's not like we have a goal to reach or anything.
[updated Tue Sep 23 12:48:06 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 12:48
Foxer
We measure it with the amount of energy canada produces and consumes. We know how much electricity and gas we use of course.
Mind you - we have no targets or goals in the green plan. And there is no seperate measuring to determine if it WAS the green tax that made a difference (positive or negative) if there is a difference.
So in essence the libs will be able to spin the numbers however they like. If it goes up - it's the people's fault or perhaps that the economy is improving. Not the lib's fault of course. If it goes down, it's the green plan and nothing else, thank god we did it.
Old trick of course - that's why any plan without targets is not a plan at all.
[updated Tue Sep 23 13:41:15 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 13:41
Peggy
I literally copied and pasted this paragraph from page 2 of the Liberal platform document on their site. That's why I'm confused
"This platform also includes tax changes that will add an additional $1.29 billion
over four years in net new tax revenue. Combined with the Green Shift this
means $1.2 billion in net new revenue is projected. This is equal to the revenue.."
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:34:08 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 10:34
Foxer
Yeah - that's already being commented on- how does a 'tax break' represent an INCREASE in tax income for the gov't?
[updated Tue Sep 23 12:49:06 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 12:49
westerner (suspended)
The Carbon Tax Plan is not revenue neutral for individual taxpayers. The numbers prove it! The carbon tax will be $40 billion and the income tax reductions are $26 billion. The short fall of $14 billion has yet to be explained.
Carbon tax on a barrel of oil will definitely show up as higher prices at the pump. All carbon taxes will be passed along to consumers one way or another.
[updated Tue Sep 23 12:00:35 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 12:00
http://www.liberal.ca/pdf/platform/2008lp_costing_e.pdf
Please read below.
The Green Shift Plan is revenue neutral to the federal government. Every penny
raised through taxes on pollution will be returned to Canadians in the form of significant tax cuts and benefits for households and businesses. In fact, as shown below,the Green Shift actually reduces net revenue by $90 million over four years.
Not revenue neutral to taxpayers or business. That is missing. You will not get $1 in for $1 you put in. Do the math please.
I suspect you will get $ 0.25 back for every dollar you pay in.
[updated Fri Oct 03 13:00:46 EDT 2008]
03 Oct 13:00
Read the Costing from the Liberal website.
http://www.liberal.ca/pdf/platform/2008lp_costing_e.pdf
[updated Fri Oct 03 13:24:05 EDT 2008]
03 Oct 13:24
elf
no fear of that - as long as the big oil people are making money there will be oodles to fix the environment - and as long as people insist on driving ( which they willl) their inability to change their lifestyles will pay too - it's about choice - make your choice - make the right choice you will save money - like me !! I'm totally on board with this plan
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:44:34 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 10:44
Peggy
But if Canada emits about 2% of all Greenhouse gases, and as you say these people are going to continue emitting how are we ahead?
[updated Tue Sep 23 12:12:18 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 12:12
Foxer
Well actually elf, emissions have already gone down recently.
And as to the green plan, as people have less money to spend they take less vacations, go out at night less, visit relatives less, the kids don't get enrolled in quite as many sports (it costs money to drive to hockey games, but there's no carbon taxes on an x-box!), etc etc.
As the economy slows (which is inevitable) people will spend less. They buy less goods which means less trucking and less flights for travel, etc. And that's all lower carbon emissions.
the problem is - it's also a crash of the economy. And it becomes self-perpetuating - nobody has money to upgrade to cheaper greener tech, and because of the tax nobody has money to stimulate the economy, and so the gov't has to raise the carbon tax just to pay for it's promises and the cycle continues.
It's a bankrupt idea during a weak economy. It might work ok in a strong economy where everyone's buying new cars and homes and has the money to make choices about what they buy but not this economy.
[updated Tue Sep 23 12:46:49 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 12:46
elf
hi foxer, I don't think we can allow the environment to depend on the up and downs of the economy - things change frequently so we need a plan that covers fixing things now with the economy as it is now. When the economy starts to grow again which it will , the environmental / green shift creates newer technology and new greener jobs we will still be on track and can maybe then set harder targets - but we have to get started now - we keep delaying - we really need to get started
[updated Tue Sep 23 17:25:41 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 17:25
Foxer
Elf - the sentiment that the environment should be independent of the economy is laudable enough and you obviously have a good heart and good intentions.
But in the practical world it just doesn't work that way. The cast iron fact is - if people see the fight for the environment as taking food away from their kids, they will rebel against it and it will be taboo to even speak of it again politically.
We do need to make a start. But we must be cautious and scale our efforts to what we can and can't do safely without destroying the economy. It's a damn shame the libs dropped the ball when they did, but they did and now we're in a more difficult world economy and we're probably staring down the barrel of 2 more years of hard times. And i won't kid you - it could be a lot worse than people think if this american bail out doesn't work. It could be a depression to rival the 30's in america and we will not be immune.
There are a lot of things that can be done - and a lot of things that are being done provincially rather than federally. The last budget out of alberta contained HUGE money for environmental inititives, including carbon capture which is a very exciting tech.
The idea that maybe some day green tech will make us wealthy is, sadly, a bit of a pipe dream. It will not replace all the lost jobs etc if the economy tanks. It just won't.
We need to scale our efforts to something reasonable. Start - yes. But slow, and invest more heavily when our economy can bear it.
The fact is - work is being done. And the other fact is people will not be able to look to their children's future if their children are going hungry today.
And frankly - i woulnd't trust the liberals to execute an environmental plan as far as i could throw them. Remember kyoto? They had 15 years to make a start, and they squandered it. Dion was environment minister during a hunk of that - in the words of iggy, he didn't get it done.
[updated Tue Sep 23 19:05:44 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 19:05
Geo-thermal for homeowners simple, more jobs locally each province can implement.
[updated Fri Oct 03 13:26:30 EDT 2008]
03 Oct 13:26
Are you a business analyst? Can you suggest a business won't move if you change the "costs" for them? That is almost comical. Global trading economy business are moving all the time. Try looking into the Celtic Tiger (Ireland) and see what they did.
From basket case in Europe to leading....lowest taxes..ssssssh!
As a small investor with shares in the banks, oil companies, technology firms my royalities and dividends are not my oodles of money.
[updated Fri Oct 03 13:07:05 EDT 2008]
03 Oct 13:07
elf
Informed 1 - except that Ireland right now is suffering big time just like the Brits - they have had all kinds of problems with banks and now mortgage companies going under - due to getiing too involved with the US - when I was there last year there where whispers of a problem but the other day Bradford and Bingley went under and that is huge - others are having to be bailed out too so all is not well over there either - there is not one of us that can endure climate change without paying more money - pollution costs money - but it's pay a little now or a heck of a lot later - wait till the insurance companies start jacking up their prices - climate change will affect them hugely and we will pay more there too - we must act now to delay just means we pay more later .
[updated Fri Oct 03 20:14:27 EDT 2008]
03 Oct 20:14
larryl
Can anyone make any sense from these results. The rolling poll supposedly interviews 400 new people every day. The number of undecided has been fairly constant so can we say that the campaign has done next to nothing to make voters choose. Why have the parties spent all this money to do so little . The CPC has spent the most from what I can tell but their numbers are going down among decided voters since they have fallen to 35% which using Sharp's method means they have been getting 31% for the last two days. The Liberals have also fallen 1% which by using the same method means they are at 30 % for one day. All these numbers are just numbers after all . If we use them for seat projections does this mean the 65% total of the opposition would result in them getting 65% of the seats or 199 of them . Another minority government with 300 million spent for nothing. Harper's fixed election date would have been pretty close to accurate since we will be having another one about that time.
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:07:20 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 15:07
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
The libs are doing just fine as their campaign gets into 2nd gear this week 3rd next week and overdrive after that. harper will need more than blue a sweater after next week. he will have to put on his ugly face and make believe Haloween is early. I still say the cons will end up at around 85 seats or maybe even below the NDP if they keep on coming which they won't.
Word around these parts is that southern Ontario is doiing just fine and thye are planning on winning more seats than last time out. They will also take a few NDP seats Kennedy's for sure and one or two others as NDP support is not that wide spread.
I will get an update on Quebec later on that promises to be interesting as the Libs are letting the Bloc do the heavy lifting for now.
I also note that Nik shows Harper's numbers down to 36% on their way to the low 20's by election day
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:06:47 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:06
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frank1100
I beleive that your numbers are spot on, (as always), The numbers as published by CBC and CTV and their pollsters show the Liberals to low. I do wonder however what percent of the voters are considered undecided.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:51:31 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 16:51
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Foxer
My guess on the NDP - they are currently at 24 percent for real.
Ok - here's my math. Looking at the past polling and taking into account the running totals, the only way the ndp could have gotten 20 yesterday and 22 today is if both nights they polled 24 percent.
So for the last 2 days - they'd polled at 24 percent.
This would be expected if the cpc just dropped on the first day the ndp and the libs would go up appropriately and both would be higher.
But - the libs have not gone up again - and the cpc numbers suggest that they polled about 38 last night. In fact, the libs dropped one.
That would suggest the cpc went back up to where it was, and the libs accordingly slid slightly going back to about 30 percent (they had to poll higher than that on sat to go from 28-29 to 31). They must have polled somewhere around 30 ish last night.
So - if that's the case... then last nites' score of 24 for the ndp would probably actually be a real number. Or very close to it.
We'll know a little more tomorrow - but assuming there's no real change in the polls between now and then i have a funny feeling we're going to wake up wednesday to the cpc at 37 - 39, the libs at around 28 -29, and the ndp possibly as high as 23 -24!
That would be truly amazing - the ndp within about 4 points of the libs!
We'll know more tomorrow but right now - that's how i read the numbers.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:18:22 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:18
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larryl
Nik.There seems to be more than a little confusion over the rolling poll results. Could you possibly explain more clearly how you arrive at the numbers you post for us. Is the third day arrived at simply by interviewing 400 new people or are the previous 2 days results added to the third day numbers to arrive at a new average for the third day. To use the third days numbers on their own would just be a small poll based on 400 interviews. In order to be a rolling poll do you take the averages from the 19th and 20th and add them to the results of the interviews on the 20th to arrive at the new 3 day average on the 21st. This is as clear as mud to some of us so maybe you could clarify what you actually do with a rolling poll.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:24:58 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 17:24
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MichaelFox
It's funny to watch people of all stripes trying to spin this one.
It's still surprising to me that the different polling companies are publishing such wildly different numbers. They normally vary a little bit, but not this much.
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:32:03 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 18:32
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If each day gets the same weight, the Tories scored 31, the Libs 30 and the NDP 28 yesterday.
Tories: (38 + 36 + x)/3 = 35, so x = 31
Libs: (29 + 31 + y)/3 = 30, so y = 30
NDP: (18 + 20 = z)/3 = 22, so z = 28
Say it ain't so!
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:55:43 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 18:55
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The darn CBC didn't broadcast my reasons 8 million Canadians will not vote in two weeks:
1) they don't have to
2) they don't like the choices
3) they don't have the time or money to get to the polling both
4) they know their votes count for nothing and until PR, these folks are right on
5) they didn't get a notice from Elections Canada, and don't know how to register or even if they can vote
6) they're too darn lazy and irresponsible
Mr. Harper should increase their sentences!
[updated Mon Sep 22 21:49:44 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 21:49
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larryl
Attention all. Could someone explain what Nik meant in his methodology and results paragraph.above." To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped". I believe the key word is interviewing . What it is added to seems to be the only thing we don't know for sure. Since it is a rolling poll should we add it to the previous two days since we have dropped the oldest day from the calculations. Only the nose knows what the nose knows but in this case nobody knows what Nik knows.
[updated Mon Sep 22 22:44:31 EDT 2008]
22 Sep 22:44
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Another crooked con party wannabe running for parliament:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/503919
[updated Tue Sep 23 05:13:10 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 05:13
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MRM
I think that this extract says it all about Dion. I can’t wait for the debates when his “team” is not there to save him.
SIRI AGRELL
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail September 22, 2008 at 9:50 PM EDT
At their first joint campaign appearance of the election campaign last week, deputy Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff delivered a succinct and impassioned introduction to Stéphane Dion, describing him as a man with guts who is ready to be prime minister.
Mr. Dion then took the podium, paused to take a drink, and promptly spilled water down his tie.
[updated Tue Sep 23 08:00:15 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 08:00
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
How can anyone vote for a party like this who pick crooks for candidates:
Director suspended as women's group looks into 'accounting irregularities'
Last Updated: Monday, September 22, 2008 | 1:53 PM AT Comments8Recommend19CBC News
The woman who was briefly the federal Conservative candidate in Halifax is out of a job, after questions surfaced about her employer's finances.
The board of the All Women's Empowerment and Development Association (AWEDA) has suspended executive director Rosamond Luke without pay and temporarily closed the office.
Three months ago, the federal government gave AWEDA nearly $143,000, with Nova Scotia cabinet minister Peter MacKay delivering the cheque personally.
But now there are questions about what happened to the money.
Board chair Brenda Saunders-Todd told CBC News Monday that "accounting irregularities" have been discovered and the board has asked a lawyer for help.
Luke, who helped found AWEDA, said she knows nothing about any financial irregularities. She disputes the authority of the board to do what it has done and said her suspension is a result of her political activity.
Luke said the board isn't pleased she was chosen to run as a Conservative in the federal election.
Luke was handpicked by the party to run in the federal riding of Halifax. But she stepped down two days after she was announced as the Conservatives' pick, when her criminal record became public.
In July 2006, Luke was convicted of uttering threats and sentenced to 18 months probation. She was also convicted of breaching an undertaking in June 2007.
When she announced she was dropping out of the election race, Luke said she wanted to devote her time to AWEDA and the promotion of immigrant women.
The board issued a statement at that time saying it had the utmost confidence in Luke's integrity and ethical commitment.
[updated Tue Sep 23 08:21:47 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 08:21
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Foxer
John Ivison: New Liberal platform is a pipedream
$40-billion in carbon tax revenue, not likely
John Ivison, National Post Published: Monday, September 22, 2008
Stéphane Dion said the Liberal platform he released Monday is built on "very solid numbers," but the claim was made more in hope than expectation.
All elections are auctions where voters are invited to buy future promises that often turn out to be as worthless as a Lehman Brothers stock option plan.
So it is likely to prove with the Liberal platform, which anticipates spending and foregone tax revenue of $55-billion over four years. This would be partly offset by $40-billion in revenue from the carbon tax. The remaining $15-billion would be covered by the surplus from current operations (Budget 2008, estimated an operating balance of $17.5-billion over four years, when planned expenditures are subtracted from anticipated revenues).
The biggest problem for Mr. Dion is not that he won't be able to raise $40-billion within four years from the carbon tax. The figure is based on work done by Jack Mintz of the University of Calgary and Nancy Olewiler of Simon Fraser University, who estimated revenues of $15-billion a year, once the tax reached $40 per tonne of carbon dioxide. Professor Mintz said yesterday that revenues might be reduced in a slowing economy but that the Liberal number is not "out of range."
The question is, what happens next? The answer is, no one knows.
If the carbon tax works as the Liberal leader hopes, emissions will tumble as people substitute away from carbon. But if they tumble, so will tax revenue and what will then pay for the $55-billion tax cut and spending plan that he has already set in place? Will the $16-billion in personal income tax cuts be rescinded? A number of European countries have already gone down this route by introducing a carbon tax, spending the proceeds and then being forced to find new revenue sources, such as employment insurance or mandatory pension fund premiums, when the tax dried up.
This is the fundamental flaw in Mr. Dion's Green Shift - the carbon tax that he eschewed for so long suddenly became attractive as a means of funding an unfunded commitment to reduce the number of people living below the poverty line by 30% and the number of children living in poverty by at least 50%. Over four years, this package of measures will cost nearly $15-billion at a time when economists are urging that no party should promise to move spending or tax cuts beyond the Budget 2008 plan because of the risk of running a deficit.
It would not be fair to say that election platforms are a tissue of lies - rather, they convey outcomes that are desired, rather than expected.
John McCallum, the party's finance critic, added an air of realism to the proceedings by saying that the speed with which spending commitments are phased in will depend on the health of the economy. "No one knows the future with any certainty," he said, reciting the mantra for any prospective government preparing the ground to renege on its promises.
The "Action Plan for the 21st Century" does at least force the Liberals to prioritize their spending commitments. Despite the hoopla about their $70-billion infrastructure plan, it turns out that there is no separate spending commitment in the four-year plan. One advisor admitted yesterday this meant the Liberals would likely spend exactly the same amount as the Conservatives on infrastructure in the first four years. "But we'll use the money faster and better," he burbled, enthusiastically.
Likewise, the $5-billion Kelowna Accord on aboriginal development, which the Conservatives have ignored and the Liberals have committed to resurrecting. Just not in the first four years of being in government, it appears. Aboriginal Canadians can expect only $2-billion over four years, according to the plan.
The commitment to introduce a universal daycare plan is another platform plank that is substantially underfunded - there is only $1.5-billion allocated in the first four years, far short of the $5-billion or so a national program would cost.
Mr. Dion emphasized his sincerity in selling his plan. "At the end of the day, Canadians will vote for the one they trust," he said.
But the issue is not his intentions - it's his competence. This election will come down to whether Canadians think the Liberal leader is capable of achieving an ambitious shift in the tax system that yields a richer, fairer, greener Canada.
Looks like more smoke and mirrors from the libs. Espeically the daycare - god it just wouldn't be an election if the liberals didn't make and break a promise on daycare. Liberals - breaking promises since 1993 :)
[updated Tue Sep 23 09:28:28 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 09:28
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Who will REALLY make the best Prime Minister?
Flash back to early August, a meeting between Mr. Harper and his most trusted political advisers.
Trusted Pollster: Mr. Harper, you have to call an election right away and make it the shortest campaign possible.
Stephen Harper: How so? I ran on fixed election dates. October, 2009, remember?
TP: No offence, Sir, but you have peaked. Your best chance of winning a majority is right now.
Political Advisor: TP’s right, Sir. We are going to lose the by-elections and, if Parliament resumes, we face continuing attacks from all opposition parties. The media will have a hay day with the scandals. The economy and the war are tanking. Obama is almost certain to win down south. And he’s not one of us.
SH: But I am the best leader up here. I’m strong and decisive. Look at the numbers.
PA: That’s why the time is now. We have Dion where we want him and, with a few finishing touches, we can destroy him and the Liberals too.
SH: Really?
TP: We’ve got him where it hurts, Sir. The media and Canadians generally have rejected Mr. Dion. He’s perceived as a nerd, a wimp, the classic “Joe Clark” treatment. May I take a little credit for our attack ads on his leadership and character right from the starting gate?
SH: Yeah. For sure. Well done. But what if the GG doesn’t agree and asks the Opposition to try it their way?
PA: Nah, she’s a newbie, not even certain why she got the job. She’ll do what you tell her to do.
SH: And we can win?
TP: We can’t win later. The PM is the last Bush poodle and even Bush is history in a few months. It’s now or never, Sir.
SH: But Canadians don’t want an election. We're doing alright. How do we explain that away?
PA: No problem, Sir. We explain that Parliament isn’t working weeks in advance, leak privileged information to our friends in the media….. that sort of thing. A week after the election is called, no one will remember why we’re having one.
[updated Tue Sep 23 19:43:18 EDT 2008]
23 Sep 19:43
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What is your favourite quote from the debate?
"I know I won't be prime minister and three of you won't be prime minister neither," he said during the debate, gesturing at Dion, Layton and May around the table. "Some of you know it, but you won't say it."
-CBC article lol what's going on at the CBC?
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/cbc/081003/canada/news_debate_reax
[updated Fri Oct 03 16:14:04 EDT 2008]
03 Oct 16:14
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bugsbunny
The 4 partis were elected to work together and do the right things for Canada such as the rebates for home inprovements and increasing the money in people's pockets with lower taxes so they will spend and create jobs. If the Liberals have some plans to develop new jobs through producing energy, put it on "the Parliament Order Paper"
That is how they will get elected again, not by saying the Conservatives are NOT SPENDING QUICK ENOUGH ON STIMULUS FUNDS AND THEN COMPLAINING ABOUT THE DEFICIT.
Let us have an election in 4 years time.and elect the party that did the most.
[updated Sun Oct 04 16:37:56 EDT 2009]
04 Oct 16:37
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