Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their five-point lead over the Liberals at 35% national support. The Liberals stand at 30%, followed by the NDP at 22%, the Bloc Québécois at 7% and the Green Party at 6%. In Ontario, the Conservatives have slipped below the Liberals, while the NDP is gaining momentum in the province, and also in Quebec where the race remains tight between the Conservatives and the Bloc. Stephen Harper is up on the leadership index to 99 points, some 43 points ahead of Jack Layton who comes in at second with 56 points. Stéphane Dion’s current score is 40 points, followed by Gilles Duceppe at 17 points and Elizabeth May at 16.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 20, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=986, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 35% (-1)
- Liberal Party 30% (-1)
- NDP 22% (+2)
- BQ 7% (NC)
- Green Party 6% (-1)
- Undecided 18% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 13% (-2)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 3% (+1)
- None of them 10% (+1)
- Unsure 16% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 99 (+6)
- Jack Layton 56 (-1)
- Stephane Dion 40 (-3)
- Gilles Duceppe 17 (+8)
- Elizabeth May 16 (+3)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Holy Crap look at the NDP!! :) Wow - that would give the ndp about 50 seats! ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 22 Sep 14:05
Good news there for the CPC. Obviously polling numbers were back up again last n... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 22 Sep 14:23
Can anyone make any sense from these results. The rolling poll supposedly interv... more
larryl (Ontario) 22 Sep 15:07
French is not a race. It is a language and a culture. If you are going to be so ... more
MRM (Manitoba) 24 Sep 08:26
There is also an Elections Canada lawsuit pending against the LPC to try and get... more
MRM (Manitoba) 24 Sep 08:29
I agree. I observed the "team" holding Dion's hand today at the press conference... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 22 Sep 21:05
Comments
Foxer
Holy Crap look at the NDP!! :)
Wow - that would give the ndp about 50 seats! That's the second 2 point rise for them in a row!
The libs are still more or less within their margin of error and the cpc is obviously going to have low figures for a couple of days due to that one day of very low numbers, but i can't believe what the ndp are doing.
That's pretty stunning - could it be accurate? That would be better than they've ever done in history!
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:05:49 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 14:05
72 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Fernando Minna
No kidding foxer. Up 9 pts since daily tracking began. Up 4 pts from the 06 result. NDP official opposition is not out of the question.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:22:13 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 14:22
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
yes it is out of the question. the NDP will start trailing off from here. RThe pot issue wil kick in and the sofr liberal vote will come home now tha tthye see haprer is vulnerable. that's 3 days in row harpercrite is slipping. Looks good on him as some of the lib ads are now hitting home.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:27:03 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 14:27
Foxer
I really don't know if the 'pot issue' is going to hurt them - the left wing tends to support the legalization of marijuana. Even I, who don't smoke the stuff and don't really think people should, question if it should be illegal or not. And i'm a cpc supporter!
And no - last night must have been a numeric gain for the CPC, or they'd be below 32 percent. Its mathematically impossible for them to have gone down last night.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:32:08 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 14:32
They need to pump pot into the HOC ventilation for question period. That would be really funny and I suspect the revenue from the vending machines would help balance our deep financial deficit that evil CPC is hiding along with Bush button under their sweaters.
[updated Fri Oct 03 15:21:41 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 15:21
Foxer
The last thing i need to see is Lizzie May 'uninhibited' :)
[updated Fri Oct 03 16:01:54 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 16:01
thats just mean, she wont be in the HOC unless she has a job working for Dion as an assistant.
[updated Fri Oct 03 16:04:30 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 16:04
Foxer
Well i assumed she'd be providing the bud. It IS the 'green party' after all :)
[updated Fri Oct 03 16:09:22 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 16:09
Fernando Minna
OK TPQ. Maybe official opposition is a stretch. And you could be right about how things will go. But you must admit the NDP have some wind in their sails.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:36:37 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 14:36
Foxer
I'm not going to give them TOO much credit over a rise two days in a row - but if they rise or hold tomorrow and the next day i'm going to have to say they have more than wind in their sails, they've got a jet up their butt.
One day might be a rogue, two days might be a little bit of a blip - three days is a trend.
they could have had a very good saturday night (going up say 4 points to raise their average to 20) and then just had a decent night last nite scoring something like 18 or 19, which with the 'good' night averaged them higher, but we'll know in two more days - if they had a 'blip' nite it will have fallen off the books by then.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:43:31 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 14:43
lui
With Jack polling higher than Stephane as best leader, if the NDP & Libs form a coalition who becomes the PM?
Wouldnt that get Bob Ray excited?
This is only posted as a worst case scenario, we have seen these two parties at work before and it wasn't pretty
[updated Sun Oct 12 15:05:26 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 15:05
westerner (suspended)
More TPQ forecasting BS. None of his ongoing forecasts have come true. The Libs are always on the verge of doing better, but they never do!
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:41:34 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 16:41
Peter3
The Conservative numbers do seem to have banged up against their ceiling again, but the NDP numbers don't seem to be showing the same trend.
I agree with Foxer that the next couple of days will show whether this trend has legs, and I would not be taking much comfort from the historical tendency for NDP numbers to fade in the stretch if I were Mr. Dion.
The Liberal campaign has established an image of impotence in the first three weeks. That is a deadly place to be. They needed to be making some kind of move by now, and they are only in the game because the Conservatives seem unable to capitalise further on Liberal weakness. Ontario is the only place where there might be some glimmer of movement by the Liberals, but they remain stuck at their 2006 level of support, below where they started the 2008 campaign.
The only clear trend over the last two weeks is in the NDP national numbers. They are clearly headed up. If it registers in the public consciousness that Mr. Harper is stalled in minority territory, the Liberals have a very serious problem. There will be no reason at all for the NDP-leaning strategic vote to stay with the Liberals under such circumstances, and even some who might have voted Liberal in the past without strategic considerations might feel like giving Mr. Layton a whirl just because the Liberals appear to be so completely in disarray. The leadership numbers are especially troubling for the Liberals in this regard.
The election is three weeks from tomorrow and there are some extremely talented people in the Liberal universe. Most of the really smart ones are on the sidelines at the moment. If somebody in the Liberal Party wakes up and realises that help is needed, and some of those idle folks are drafted pdq (like in the next 2 days) many things could happen, I suppose. Heck, given the trend in this election, some shattering scandal might even take one or all of Mr. Dion's competitors down. Otherwise, all the cheerleading in the world is not going to get Mr. Dion into 24 Sussex Dr. and Stornaway could plausibly be at risk.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:09:48 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:09
Hope
Hi Foxer,
On CTV's Canada AM today, Layton suggested that he would work with the Liberals if the two parties combined won more seats than the Conservatives. It sort of came out of the blue and left me wondering why. Nik's poll answered the question - I guess sharing power is better than nothing. The Liberal Party's response will be interesting - I hope they say it's not in the cards.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:53:11 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 14:53
Foxer
Ahh yes. Clever move. I'll explain exactly why. Layton's no dummy, i'll give him that.
First off - you have to look very closely at what layton said. What he said is that he will go to the prime minister's office with his staff and look at the best way to get his agenda moving forward.
Interesting choice of words. Not - to the liberals. To the pm's office. the question was 'would you form a coallition gov't with the libs'.
It's a very clear message to harper - IF it's a minority, layton is going to walk into his office and if Harper doesn't agree to put some of layton's more important items on the agenda, layton will threaten an alliance with the libs to kick the CPC out of power.
Which harper will agree to. :)
Oh they'll haggle, and the ndp won't get everything, but he WILL get something. Something the CPC doesn't want to give up but will.
Very clever.
Layton has no interest in becoming dion's back seat boy. He's said that many times, and why would he? But the threat of it is enough to give him huge bargaining power.
Now - that assumes that the vote is such that the libs and ndp have enough between them to form gov't over the cpc. They didn't last time, and i doubt they would this time even if it is a minority. But you never know - and you can bet that if ti's close layton will be warming harper up and there's going to be some very hard and fast discussions just before the vote :)
hehehe - i don't like most of layton's ideas, but you gotta hand it to him - he's not a fool. He knows how to play the 'opposition' game well.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:58:54 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 14:58
Hope
Hi again Foxer,
Layton didn't earn a Ph.D without a good brain - he's a sharp dude. I agree, I don't think he has any interest in becoming anybody's back seat boy. But I still think he would play second fiddle even if it meant power sharing. The next three weeks will be interesting, to say the least!
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:40:04 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 15:40
Foxer
Heh - well whether or not he would play second fiddle (and i'm not so sure he would) there's no doubt harper isn't going to risk it.
Layton would get his way, and get items on the agenda. Harper would try to pass it off as 'being willing to work with the opposition', and would console himself with the knowledge that it helps the NDP and not the libs, but at the end of the day the big winner would be layton, and that's just the truth. Harper's quite talented, but he knows a weak position when he sees one and he wouldn't pick that fight.
But - we'll have to wait and see if it's even possible. If layton is gaining as much as this poll suggests, he may well just form opposition and be happy with it.
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:47:28 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 15:47
Peter3
I think the more likely scenario is one in which Mr. Harper follows through on his claim that he intends to govern as if he had a majority, regardless of his numbers, and dares the Liberals to bring him down. If, as seems likely, Mr. Layton is in the driver's seat with the balance of power, he will once again be able to play the Real Opposition role, daring Mr. Dion to bring down the House. Anticipate a Throne Speech and budget designed to humiliate the Liberals if they let it pass.
The Conservative brain trust has made no secret of their desire to polarise the political landscape, preferably be crushing the Liberals in the same manner that the Mulroney PCs were crushed. If they do accomodate Mr. Layton, it will be to give him room to build on his position in anticipation of another election in very short order.
All of this requires that the numbers hold until election day, but something like this is beginning to look more and more likely with each day of stagnant Liberal numbers.
Interesting times.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:43:59 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 16:43
Foxer
That may be harper's stratagy, but the question was what was layton doing suggesting a coalition may be possible when he's rejected the notion in the past?
I think it's a safe bet that if the CPC's numbers are high enough that a coalition isn't possible, but still in minority territory, then what you suggest is precisely what will happen. For example, if the numbers were something like 145 for the cpc, 80 for the libs and 40 for the ndp - no chance of a coalition but we'll be back to the CPC pushing the libs around like crazy and the ndp actually behaving like the opposition.
But what if it's 116, 100 and 50? Now - that's very interesting for Layton. He can walk into the pm's office and say "these following items go on the agenda with your support. Or I walk over and form gov't with dion.
Now harper's in a pickle. Pushing the libs around is one thing - pushing the ndp around with the libs backing them is something quite different.
Layton would get huge concessions. Not everything he wants, but a good hunk of what he wants. And harper will have to be very careful about disolving parliament because the ndp and libs COULD go and say 'no, we'll take over gov't if harper has lost confidence in the parliament again'.
The libs coulnd't afford another election - but layton could. Harper isn't going to be able to back him down nearly so easily.
It would be very interesting to see what came out of that.
I don't think we'll get there tho. It's looking like harper's numbers will be too strong to allow for a coalition gov't.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:58:28 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 16:58
Peter3
I think that what Mr.Layton was doing is called putting the cat among the pigeons.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:53:00 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:53
Foxer
Yeah - well if the numbers look close that'll be one pretty big cat :)
Either way - it could raise some interesting questions for dion.
[updated Mon Sep 22 19:04:14 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 19:04
Agreed Chretien did it to weaken the fracture Harper learned lessons well.
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:12:23 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 12:12
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I would say that when Dion wins he will try and go it alone except for the Greens whom he may coop if they win any seats and if thye are emaningful seats in terms of balance of power. as for joining up with the NDP the Libs would only do that if Layton went away and the two parties could merge. Layton's ego would get in the way of any merger and some far left wing dipper MP's would also become independents if a merger took place.
A consortium government between the two is unlikely in my opinion
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:36:52 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 15:36
Foxer
There is no chance of dion winning. It's up in the air if he'll even form opposition.
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:47:53 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 15:47
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
stupid is as stupid does....I see its getting to you
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:52:16 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 15:52
Foxer
It would be getting to me if we were losing like dion is :) as it stands, it's just a simple truth. There is no chance of dion wining in any practical sense of the word. Nik is polling him the highest, and even there he's well behind the cpc with the ndp hot on his heels.
Even his party is getting desperate. They're in the paper again today begging him to do ANYTHING to stop talking about the green shift and himself and try a different approach. They're in risk of being wiped out.
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:55:56 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 15:55
You think from 95 seats below 55? I don't see it.
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:15:19 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 12:15
Foxer
Well we saw it before - turner, campbell, it has happened in recent history.
For it to happen tho the liberal supporters need somewhere to 'bleed' to as a rule. For Kim, that was the reform and the bloc. The question is - will the ndp and the greens be an effective 'conduit' for blood to flow from the libs?
So far that 'dam' hasn't broken yet - there's been bleed but there isn't a wholesale movement to the other parties. But this week will tell the tale - it could happen. If the libs start to slide, they'll slide right into the gutter.
Way back when i said that the libs would either be around 70 or around 50, depending on the last week if the libs slid or not. Dion failed to get his momentum he was looking for, and he's pretty much shot his load. There's not much more he can come up wiht that won't look like complete desperation, which is what his '30 day action plan' is playing like.
Harper could gain momentum, and so could layton. This last week is going to be all about the left wing parties trying to convince voters to rally around them to stop harper - and if layton starts to win that fight dion's going to sink like a stone.
So - 70 ish seats is about the best dion can hope for, but 50 ish seats is not out of the question at all. For harper - i'm still thinking 145- 150 seats. Just shy of the majority.
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:29:27 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 12:29
ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssshhhhhh!!!
I don't have my American Green Card ready.
Are you going to bring your Hummer to our Annual Hidden Agenda Oil Guzzling BBQ Rally? Don't forget your Bible.
I am going to bring my 100 guns just in case those pesky squirrels show up again and try to steal my nuts.
lol....
[updated Fri Oct 03 13:36:09 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 13:36
Foxer
LOL - i'm going with land mines for the squirrels this year. Plus, sharks with frikkin lasers on their heads for any kids that pee in the pool.
[updated Fri Oct 03 14:14:25 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 14:14
Be nice we need some Disney humour here.
[updated Fri Oct 03 16:42:08 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 16:42
Foxer
Fine - i'm hiring a cute fuzzy raccoon to beat the snot out of the squirrels by engineering a highly implausible and needlessly complex trap that only works in the end because all the other animals learn to work together :)
[updated Fri Oct 03 16:48:12 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 16:48
I find it amusing whenever some newsclip or one day poll moves the "holders" of truth party and their supporters do the rallying cry.
Reminds me of story by Hans Christian Anderson
The Emperor's New Clothes.
[updated Fri Oct 03 17:06:11 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 17:06
westerner (suspended)
"...when Dion wins" : Keep dreaming. It will be a Conservative Minority.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:44:12 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 16:44
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
yep if you say and that would justify Harper spending over 300MM to achieve nothing?
He's dead meat in that case and wouldn't survive another confidence vote.
So he might as well just lose and save us some money.
No one would wait until he pounced and his poularity would be a fraction of the 36% he's now showing. You better hope like hell he wins or the party goes down with the captain since he has full control of its apparatus right now.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:03:26 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:03
westerner (suspended)
You are so full of hot air and fantasy; just face reality and stop your wishful thinking. Dion is no leader and the costing strategy is a joke.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:46:48 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:46
Thats okay we have already rigged the ballots, and paid off Elections Canada staffers.
We are now sending mind control beams over the airwaves...the hidden agenda is now coming out!
Our armed forces will be in your local neighbourhood shortly with George Bush for PM signs shortly.
Long live Emperor Bush!
Good luck with your party in October 14, 2008, I sure Canadians will vote wisely as they do every election.
[updated Fri Oct 03 15:18:01 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 15:18
Dion did win. He won the position as leader of the official leader of the opposition. In March 2009 he will be meeting with his shadow cabinet code name Brutus. After that meeting Dion will be returning to academic life.
[updated Fri Oct 03 13:41:32 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 13:41
gretag
H and K: CON 115 (-11) LIB 104 (+3) NDP 49 (+20) BQ 39 (-11) IND 1 (0)
Seat predictions are notoriously faulty, but it is interesting that today's Nanos numbers put the Liberals and NDP combined very close to majority numbers and more than 50% of voters, much more when you consider on a day when Layton said he would consider a coalition.
Given the Greens and the overlap in parts of the platform, such a coalition would seem to represent the interests of almost 60% of voters (or more, given there is overlap on the environment, arts, etc with the Bloc as well). This is a government the majority of Canadians would be much happier with than Stephen Harper's government.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:05:53 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:05
gretag
sorry for garbled editing, 1st para should read:
Seat predictions are notoriously faulty, but it is interesting that today's Nanos numbers put the Liberals and NDP combined very close to majority numbers and more than 50% of voters, on a day when Layton said he would consider a coalition.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:12:54 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:12
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
gretag, at the right moment the Libs will stand down the NDP and tell the public they won't consider a coalition. the Libs have enough loyalty to do this on their own if they get more traction as it appears they are.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:20:20 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:20
Foxer
If they do - they weaken their argument that we should do 'anything' to stop harper. They wind up looking petty and selfish.
Right now the libs have about as much traction as a 2 wheel drive with bald tires on an icy incline. In a headwind. The last thing dion will want to do is be answering questions as to why he wouldn't want to do what it took to stop harper.
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:57:35 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 18:57
skoblin
gretag...can you provide a provincial or regional breakdown for your +20 NDP growth?
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:32:47 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:32
gretag
Skoblin, sorry, I just pulled that off a blog which posted seats for Nik's numbers, so I don't have more info.
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:26:46 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 18:26
MRM
Layton must be furious at the media. He never said that he would consider a coalition with the Liberals. He said that he would cooperate with them on common policy. But the media's inaccurate reporting of the story has galvanized the Tories and caused those on the left that thought he was the only alternative to go back to the Liberals.
[updated Mon Sep 22 22:18:23 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 22:18
skoblin
I agree with you MRM. I heard about Layton's 'comment' yesterday morning, and thought what a stupid thing for him to have said. Then when I watched the actual interview, nowhere did he mention a coalition government. He merely remarked that if he became PM he would work with all parties to bring about desired legislation.
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:51:44 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 10:51
MichaelFox
I hope so too. I'd be very worried about the NDP forming part of our government.
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:36:12 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 18:36
elf
actually I do think the soft Liberal vote will come out soon - many romanticize about an NDP nirvana government but then reality kicks in and they vote Liberal - next election the greens will sweep the others away - I'm a liberal but I do see a co-alition of the Left ( or left of centre) and it is something I would welcome
[updated Tue Sep 23 10:49:32 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 10:49
I can empathize with your "wish upon a star" tactic for the strategic vote to take place again this election.
Why I dont think it will work again. It only helped CPC from having a numerical majority. In reality they had a majority because Dion sat on his hands 43 times in the HOC.
CPC 2.5 years of government did not end up with the army in our cities in Canada.
Jack and May and Duceppe have done better jobs running a campaign and will be bleeding more votes. The splits will continue to hurt your brand in increase the seat loss.
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:26:07 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 12:26
Foxer
A very real possibility, but worse for dion is that he's lost his chance at gaining momentum. He desperately needed that to pull any soft liberals to him.
70 plus seats is the best dion can hope for - if he slides it'll get worse than that in a hurry. So now the question is will layton make a better pitch than dion for rallying the left wing vote around him?
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:32:57 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 12:32
elf
Informed 1 - I regret to say that I think you will be proved wrong - and I think today's polls are showing that right now - Mr Dion and the Libs are going to slowly get more support. I must say I really do admire and respect Gilles Duceppe - I kind of wish he was the leader of the NDP instead of that overblown car salesman - that moustache has to go !!
[updated Fri Oct 03 20:08:01 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 20:08
Worst case scenario, let's pretend ignoring all empirical data and wish upon a star. Okay?
I will be okay with Dion and his party although I don't think they will deliver on the platform and promises. He will be forced try to be a fiscal conservative in this global economic downturn coming.
Take a look at the gap so far in spending promises from the Liberal and PC party. CPC total for 3 weeks so far is under $ 2 Billion in new spending commitments programs, I won't total up your party that would be cruel, my computer can't handle a number that big.
Goodluck and I hope Dion does well in the next few weeks.
[updated Fri Oct 03 20:21:40 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 20:21
skoblin
The most interesting aspect has been the rise of NDP support in Atlantic Canada which has been mirrored by the rise of Layton's standing as preferred PM in the same region. This combination also occurs in Quebec, where the NDP is now statistically tied with the Liberals. These combinations of polling numbers and PM preference would seem to suggest that these are not blips, but represent some degree of sustainable growth. On the downside, however, the rise of NDP support in Quebec seems rather diffused - good news in terms of long-term benefit, but bad news in terms of seat acquisition. NDP support in Atlantic Canada however, seems concentrated in Nova Scotia and primarily in the Halifax area. This would seem to suggest that the rise in NDP numbers will not pan out in dramatic increases in seats. It would be interesting if Nik could provide some further breakdowns in both the Atlantic region and the West to get a better idea how the parties are doing in able to make some realistic seat projections. Liberals and NDP are tied in the West, but which party will obtain more seats - NDP or Liberals? Tough to say without a breakdown for BC especially. Still, looks like the NDP in on course for one of their better showings, but 50? Not yet. I would say an increase to about 5 or 6 in Atlantic Canada with these numbers, maybe 2 or 3 in Quebec at most (Outremont, Hull-Aylmer), some jiggling in Ontario but a marginal increase overall, the same amount in Manitoba, and possibly some losses in BC. End result - around 40 right now.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:31:24 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:31
Foxer
They would get 50 or close to it if these numbers were entirely accurate - but i think we all know they're not. Saturday's poll 'bliped' a bit.
Based on what seems to be more realistic numbers, i'm forecasting them at the moment at more like 35 -37. And a few of those would be squeakers, so it's really hard to say how they'll go on election night (depends on who's vote turns up )
But - if this trend continues... Could be pretty interesting.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:36:13 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:36
skoblin
A blip...possible. SC numbers though mirror those of Nanos...increase in Quebec and around 20 in Ontario. Will have to see what happens in BC. The NDP started off rather strong in BC at the beginning and then bled off a lot of support to the Greens during the debate fiasco (not sure who advised Layton there). Now it seems the Greens have had their time in the sun and are now declining again, with the NDP recovering its strength. If this continues, I think these polling numbers should maintain themselves as increases in BC may replace possible blips in support elsewhere. Still, it is the CPCs election to lose. Three parties battling for the left of center vote - one of them in disarray, another losing media coverage, and a third with a traditional ceiling of support. These gaffes are hurting the CPC severely. Death by a thousand cuts indeed.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:53:59 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:53
Foxer
well not too severely if the SC's and others' numbers are to be believed.
The cpc still seems poised on the edge of a majority. And if the ndp chews into any more of the lib support that'll just make that stronger. I'm not a huge ipsos fan but they're usually reasonably accurate and they've got the cpc in a clear majority territory.
If the cpc can lay off the 'gaffes' for a bit, i think it'll be a majority with room to spare. In fairness - the 'tainted meat' jokes actually happened long before the election was called, the opposition just saved releasing it till the election.
There probably isn't a lot more like that out there, and I think the effect has been fairly minor. I think the libs are going to have to do SOMETHING to 'wow' voters and I don't think they're coming up with anything so far.
I note the ndp just hit hard with a release from their war room pointing out that if dion's plan actually DOES reduce carbon - he'll go into deficit almost immediately.
That'll take some explaining.
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:13:50 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 18:13
gretag
Actually, that is easy to explain and is common to all carbon pricing schemes. You set initial prices/refunds based on estimated emissions and adjust as needed. If emissions did go down enough, you would typically increase the price of carbon emissions faster than expected. With reduced emissions, the cost to the economy would still be the same.
However, this is a rather technical issue of carbon pricing, and I assume Layton is trying to call Dion out to keep him talking about details. Meanwhile, Layton is sitting on a cap and trade plan which would require a lot of effort to spell out to see if it even had a chance of ever working, but no one is asking because the NDP will not have to deliver.
Ultimately, it is politics and perhaps Layton will win and that. The loser will be our environment and economy. Layton used to have environmental credentials, but he seems to have been willing to chuck those aside in this election.
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:49:01 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 18:49
Foxer
So what you're saying is that if this works, he will have to raise taxes, thereby making it NOT revenue neutral.
If he raises taxes to pay for the existing tax breaks - he will have broken his promise. He can't give MORE tax breaks because he raised the taxes to cover what he's already done.
It comes back to the same thing - either dion has to raise taxes or he can't deliver what he's promising.
Doesn't sound too 'technical' to me. If it works - our taxes go up with no benefit. If it doesn't work, it wasn't a 'green plan' at all and dion will have done nothing for the environment, just like when he was environment minister (carbon went up).
So ... why exactly are we doing this again?
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:52:46 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 18:52
gretag
No, that is not what I am saying. I'm saying in order to keep it revenue neutral and neither run a deficit or collect too much money, the price of carbon is related to changes in total emissions.
Say, over some period, emissions goes down by a factor of 2, and one increases the price/ton by a factor of 2. Then the total money collected remains the same. Costs neither go up or down, in that case. In reality, these revenue neutral models will be adjusted periodically for reductions, economic growth, etc.
If emissions go down by a factor of 2, that means the average Canadian's carbon footprint has decreased by 2. So whatever costs are passed on to you through the carbon tax (which is applied wholesale - you don't directly pay it) will be the same as they were (assuming you are an average consumer). For a factor of 2 reduction, you are probably looking at 15 or more years. These are long-term effects and one doesn't get big changes in a year or two. What Layton is asking about, is insignificant compared to the uncertainty in exactly what the economy will be doing in 3 or 4 years. Who knows that?
[updated Mon Sep 22 19:53:25 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 19:53
Foxer
That would be a tax increase. Dion has promised there would not be tax increases.
The total money collected remains the same - but the tax collected for what you have purchased has gone up.
For example - i buy ten apples today for 10 dollars total and the gov't charges me 1 dollar in tax. Being a nice gov't - it also gives me a dollar back in taxes.
this is the supposed 'revenue neutral' concept.
So next week i buy some more. Unfortunately because fewer people are buying apples - i have to give the gov't TWO dollars. And i only get the same dollar back.
The gov't has raised my taxes. And i'm not getting all of it back any more.
Even if i reduce my need for apples by 25 percent (to 7 and a half apples) I will still be paying MORE money in tax than i did before. And still getting back less than i paid.
Even worse - if my income slips i won't even get back my dollar in tax - so i pay even MORE tax per apple than i was.
No matter how you slice the apple - my taxes have gone up even tho i reduced my apple intake. The gov't will have to charge me 2 dollars for every apple purchased to give me the 1 dollar it promised me, and that is no longer revenue neutral.
So the only way a gov't can continue to give me the dollar is to raise the tax rate.
BUT - dion has PROMISED he will NOT raise taxes. No where in his carbon plan does it call for raising taxes. It doesn't say "if carbon use goes down - we'll raise taxes' - it says no raises in taxes.
So - how does that work?
You raise the next interesting point.
Lets say that my income goes down due to the economy. I'm going to cut back on many items of course, probably luxuries first. Like going to the restaurant and to movies.
Now - we are paying the gov't less tax money because i'm not earning as much. yet - the gov't has promised tax breaks already, and most of them are at the lower income, so i still get those. But - now how does the gov't pay for those tax breaks it promised that were funded by the gas tax? Obviously it can't. BUT - i'm still paying the tax on carbon that was supposed to fund those breaks.
So its either raise taxes or cut services. Both of which dion has said he won't do. the only other thing he can do is not give us all the stuff he promised, which means the Carbon tax will no longer be revenue neutral.
Again - no matter how you cut it, dion would be in trouble, and MORE so if the economy actually slides AND people use less carbon.
Regardless - dion will have to break a promise unless carbon use does not go down. It's not possible to have carbon use go down and NOT raise taxes.
[updated Mon Sep 22 20:28:49 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 20:28
MRM
Foxer - Good analogy. The other aspect is that the carbon produced is created as a by-product of producing, storing or moving something so when the cost of carbon goes up, so also does the cost of those goods as they are finding out in BC now.
[updated Tue Sep 23 04:32:08 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 04:32
Foxer
Well this is the problem. You see - in the end it's impossible for a tax to be 'revenue neutral' to the people, because a good deal of it gets sucked up into the costs involve with simply administrating it. There is a cost to put the tax in place, a cost to collect the tax, a cost to monitor the tax and the results and to dish out the cash that is to be returned one way or another.
With the gst for example i believe it was calculated to be something like 20 percent of the money collected. Part of that is paid by business, part by gov't, part by people.
So there is an entropic effect - energy in does not equal energy out. It can't. So sooner or later, you pay more.
Taking money OUT of our system leaves LESS cash for people to adapt or buy greener technology. Instead - they do things like drive less. As in - drive less to the movies and restaurants. Which makes those businesses suffer, which means less jobs and opportunity, which means people make less money and you get into a nice little vicious circle.
And THEN what happens is people say "screw 'going green' " and elect a gov't that will toss green taxes, green initives, green ANYTHING out the window and will do whatever it takes to promote jobs, whether i'ts offshore oil drilling and strip mining to subsidizing fuel costs and cutting social programs to lower taxes.
The end result is ugly.
You cannot just tax people 15 billion dollars and HOPE it will reduce carbon.
[updated Tue Sep 23 08:46:19 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 08:46
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
you obviously didn't read the lib program or you read it like any dumb tory would
[updated Tue Sep 23 09:44:20 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 09:44
Foxer
I read it front to back - i also read the original 'green shift' proposal. (god - there's 2 hours of my life i'll never get back).
The math is quite simple - using LAST YEARS numbers and IF the economy doesn't go down a notch, and IF carbon emissions ARE NOT reduced - then they will squeak by because most of their spending doesn't happen in the first four years.
But that's not realistic. There's nothing 'prudent' about it. It's the usual smoke and mirrors.
Now - Dion has said if things go south and he can't pay for all this, he'll just 'slow the delivery'.
Which is liberal for "we know we can't afford it - so we won't deliver and we'll just run on the same platform next time."
Not much point is there.
[updated Tue Sep 23 09:51:00 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 09:51
HC in AB
I also read the whole thing and found it an interesting comment, however, as near as I could tell, the carbon tax revenue projections seemed to indicate no reduction in carbon emissions. Did I miss something, or were they "flat-lining" the emissions with a growing economy and therefore emissions as a percentage of the economy were anticipated to decrease?
[updated Tue Sep 23 17:18:10 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 17:18
Foxer
Well it 'assumes' no reduction in emissions. But - the fact is there's no actual comment at all as to what their 'target' is or their thinking. Theres' no goal, no estimates on reduction or the like - so we can't really say WHAT they're thinking.
If emissions go down, they'll have to raise taxes. Or hold off on some of the other goodies they promised. Child care would get the axe first - they've been dangling that carrot and then yanking it for 15 years now.
[updated Tue Sep 23 18:52:07 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 18:52
I agree the left of centre are feeding upon themselves. The right of centre parties understood vote splitting and merged.
Looking forward to the New Green Liberal Party in 2011.
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:27:32 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 12:27
Foxer
Yeah - but it did take 12 years :)
I think the left is going to be split for a while. Dion's trying to say they're the 'center' party, but nobody's buying it. His tax hikes and spending are higher than laytons!
[updated Fri Oct 03 12:30:41 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 12:30
degres
It looks good so far, but the Lib will not go down easy. They have taken out 3 Dippers running in B.C. in one week.
The polls today in B.C. put Cons 3?, NDP 30%, Greens 18%, Lib 11%.
Liberal dirty tricks are not finished, it'd like a cornered rat, this is when they are the most dangerous.
[updated Wed Sep 24 00:08:26 -0400 2008]
24 Sep 00:08
Foxer
Historically - this is where candidates get desperate and do something stupid. Remember kimmy's little ad making fun of Chretien's face? I can't imagine what dion's going to come up with - but he's a nasty little person at heart.
[updated Wed Sep 24 00:21:27 -0400 2008]
24 Sep 00:21
I suspect the NDP may find the % of their popular vote increase but it wont be reflected in gains in seats. As the left of centre is very crowded (Bloc,Lib,NDP,Green) voters opposed to the standing government have several options to park their protest vote. Im not sure the Liberals will have a complete meltdown. The Gen-Y and Gen-X make for great news bites but its the boomers who will be voting in the government.
Here is my prediction in seats. I dont have them broken down by province.
Conservative 127 -> 155
Liberal 95 -> 84
Bloc 48 -> 39
NDP 30 -> 30
Green 1 -> 0
Independent 3 -> 0
Vacant/Other 4 -> 0
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:30:07 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:30
I think large urban centres will continue to vote in the liberals but the 905, rural area and suburbs in Ontario will vote Harper through the splintered votes.BC will become a Liberal wasteland and they may end up having no seats West of Ontario making it a regional party.
[updated Fri Sep 26 09:37:28 -0400 2008]
26 Sep 09:37
degres
I think the NDP will be in the range of of 37-39 seats.
[updated Sat Oct 11 03:02:17 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 03:02
Foxer
Good news there for the CPC. Obviously polling numbers were back up again last nite.
To fall from 38 to 36 in one day, saturday's polling sample must have come in at 31 percent.
If it had stayed that low, if that wasn't a rogue result, then today we'd have been at about 33 percent. For it to hit 35, the cpc must have polled around 38 percent last night again to give that as a three day average.
I was just a hair worried there yesterday :) but i was pretty sure it was just a rogue day. It happens. It's pretty rare to see someone lose 7 points overnight.
[updated Mon Sep 22 14:23:59 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 14:23
73 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Can anyone make any sense from these results. The rolling poll supposedly interviews 400 new people every day. The number of undecided has been fairly constant so can we say that the campaign has done next to nothing to make voters choose. Why have the parties spent all this money to do so little . The CPC has spent the most from what I can tell but their numbers are going down among decided voters since they have fallen to 35% which using Sharp's method means they have been getting 31% for the last two days. The Liberals have also fallen 1% which by using the same method means they are at 30 % for one day. All these numbers are just numbers after all . If we use them for seat projections does this mean the 65% total of the opposition would result in them getting 65% of the seats or 199 of them . Another minority government with 300 million spent for nothing. Harper's fixed election date would have been pretty close to accurate since we will be having another one about that time.
[updated Mon Sep 22 15:07:20 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 15:07
67 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
The libs are doing just fine as their campaign gets into 2nd gear this week 3rd next week and overdrive after that. harper will need more than blue a sweater after next week. he will have to put on his ugly face and make believe Haloween is early. I still say the cons will end up at around 85 seats or maybe even below the NDP if they keep on coming which they won't.
Word around these parts is that southern Ontario is doiing just fine and thye are planning on winning more seats than last time out. They will also take a few NDP seats Kennedy's for sure and one or two others as NDP support is not that wide spread.
I will get an update on Quebec later on that promises to be interesting as the Libs are letting the Bloc do the heavy lifting for now.
I also note that Nik shows Harper's numbers down to 36% on their way to the low 20's by election day
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:06:47 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 16:06
78 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
frank1100
I beleive that your numbers are spot on, (as always), The numbers as published by CBC and CTV and their pollsters show the Liberals to low. I do wonder however what percent of the voters are considered undecided.
[updated Mon Sep 22 16:51:31 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 16:51
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
My guess on the NDP - they are currently at 24 percent for real.
Ok - here's my math. Looking at the past polling and taking into account the running totals, the only way the ndp could have gotten 20 yesterday and 22 today is if both nights they polled 24 percent.
So for the last 2 days - they'd polled at 24 percent.
This would be expected if the cpc just dropped on the first day the ndp and the libs would go up appropriately and both would be higher.
But - the libs have not gone up again - and the cpc numbers suggest that they polled about 38 last night. In fact, the libs dropped one.
That would suggest the cpc went back up to where it was, and the libs accordingly slid slightly going back to about 30 percent (they had to poll higher than that on sat to go from 28-29 to 31). They must have polled somewhere around 30 ish last night.
So - if that's the case... then last nites' score of 24 for the ndp would probably actually be a real number. Or very close to it.
We'll know a little more tomorrow - but assuming there's no real change in the polls between now and then i have a funny feeling we're going to wake up wednesday to the cpc at 37 - 39, the libs at around 28 -29, and the ndp possibly as high as 23 -24!
That would be truly amazing - the ndp within about 4 points of the libs!
We'll know more tomorrow but right now - that's how i read the numbers.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:18:22 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:18
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Nik.There seems to be more than a little confusion over the rolling poll results. Could you possibly explain more clearly how you arrive at the numbers you post for us. Is the third day arrived at simply by interviewing 400 new people or are the previous 2 days results added to the third day numbers to arrive at a new average for the third day. To use the third days numbers on their own would just be a small poll based on 400 interviews. In order to be a rolling poll do you take the averages from the 19th and 20th and add them to the results of the interviews on the 20th to arrive at the new 3 day average on the 21st. This is as clear as mud to some of us so maybe you could clarify what you actually do with a rolling poll.
[updated Mon Sep 22 17:24:58 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 17:24
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
It's funny to watch people of all stripes trying to spin this one.
It's still surprising to me that the different polling companies are publishing such wildly different numbers. They normally vary a little bit, but not this much.
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:32:03 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 18:32
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
If each day gets the same weight, the Tories scored 31, the Libs 30 and the NDP 28 yesterday.
Tories: (38 + 36 + x)/3 = 35, so x = 31
Libs: (29 + 31 + y)/3 = 30, so y = 30
NDP: (18 + 20 = z)/3 = 22, so z = 28
Say it ain't so!
[updated Mon Sep 22 18:55:43 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 18:55
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
The darn CBC didn't broadcast my reasons 8 million Canadians will not vote in two weeks:
1) they don't have to
2) they don't like the choices
3) they don't have the time or money to get to the polling both
4) they know their votes count for nothing and until PR, these folks are right on
5) they didn't get a notice from Elections Canada, and don't know how to register or even if they can vote
6) they're too darn lazy and irresponsible
Mr. Harper should increase their sentences!
[updated Mon Sep 22 21:49:44 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 21:49
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Attention all. Could someone explain what Nik meant in his methodology and results paragraph.above." To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped". I believe the key word is interviewing . What it is added to seems to be the only thing we don't know for sure. Since it is a rolling poll should we add it to the previous two days since we have dropped the oldest day from the calculations. Only the nose knows what the nose knows but in this case nobody knows what Nik knows.
[updated Mon Sep 22 22:44:31 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 22:44
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Another crooked con party wannabe running for parliament:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/503919
[updated Tue Sep 23 05:13:10 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 05:13
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MRM
I think that this extract says it all about Dion. I can’t wait for the debates when his “team” is not there to save him.
SIRI AGRELL
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail September 22, 2008 at 9:50 PM EDT
At their first joint campaign appearance of the election campaign last week, deputy Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff delivered a succinct and impassioned introduction to Stéphane Dion, describing him as a man with guts who is ready to be prime minister.
Mr. Dion then took the podium, paused to take a drink, and promptly spilled water down his tie.
[updated Tue Sep 23 08:00:15 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 08:00
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
How can anyone vote for a party like this who pick crooks for candidates:
Director suspended as women's group looks into 'accounting irregularities'
Last Updated: Monday, September 22, 2008 | 1:53 PM AT Comments8Recommend19CBC News
The woman who was briefly the federal Conservative candidate in Halifax is out of a job, after questions surfaced about her employer's finances.
The board of the All Women's Empowerment and Development Association (AWEDA) has suspended executive director Rosamond Luke without pay and temporarily closed the office.
Three months ago, the federal government gave AWEDA nearly $143,000, with Nova Scotia cabinet minister Peter MacKay delivering the cheque personally.
But now there are questions about what happened to the money.
Board chair Brenda Saunders-Todd told CBC News Monday that "accounting irregularities" have been discovered and the board has asked a lawyer for help.
Luke, who helped found AWEDA, said she knows nothing about any financial irregularities. She disputes the authority of the board to do what it has done and said her suspension is a result of her political activity.
Luke said the board isn't pleased she was chosen to run as a Conservative in the federal election.
Luke was handpicked by the party to run in the federal riding of Halifax. But she stepped down two days after she was announced as the Conservatives' pick, when her criminal record became public.
In July 2006, Luke was convicted of uttering threats and sentenced to 18 months probation. She was also convicted of breaching an undertaking in June 2007.
When she announced she was dropping out of the election race, Luke said she wanted to devote her time to AWEDA and the promotion of immigrant women.
The board issued a statement at that time saying it had the utmost confidence in Luke's integrity and ethical commitment.
[updated Tue Sep 23 08:21:47 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 08:21
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
John Ivison: New Liberal platform is a pipedream
$40-billion in carbon tax revenue, not likely
John Ivison, National Post Published: Monday, September 22, 2008
Stéphane Dion said the Liberal platform he released Monday is built on "very solid numbers," but the claim was made more in hope than expectation.
All elections are auctions where voters are invited to buy future promises that often turn out to be as worthless as a Lehman Brothers stock option plan.
So it is likely to prove with the Liberal platform, which anticipates spending and foregone tax revenue of $55-billion over four years. This would be partly offset by $40-billion in revenue from the carbon tax. The remaining $15-billion would be covered by the surplus from current operations (Budget 2008, estimated an operating balance of $17.5-billion over four years, when planned expenditures are subtracted from anticipated revenues).
The biggest problem for Mr. Dion is not that he won't be able to raise $40-billion within four years from the carbon tax. The figure is based on work done by Jack Mintz of the University of Calgary and Nancy Olewiler of Simon Fraser University, who estimated revenues of $15-billion a year, once the tax reached $40 per tonne of carbon dioxide. Professor Mintz said yesterday that revenues might be reduced in a slowing economy but that the Liberal number is not "out of range."
The question is, what happens next? The answer is, no one knows.
If the carbon tax works as the Liberal leader hopes, emissions will tumble as people substitute away from carbon. But if they tumble, so will tax revenue and what will then pay for the $55-billion tax cut and spending plan that he has already set in place? Will the $16-billion in personal income tax cuts be rescinded? A number of European countries have already gone down this route by introducing a carbon tax, spending the proceeds and then being forced to find new revenue sources, such as employment insurance or mandatory pension fund premiums, when the tax dried up.
This is the fundamental flaw in Mr. Dion's Green Shift - the carbon tax that he eschewed for so long suddenly became attractive as a means of funding an unfunded commitment to reduce the number of people living below the poverty line by 30% and the number of children living in poverty by at least 50%. Over four years, this package of measures will cost nearly $15-billion at a time when economists are urging that no party should promise to move spending or tax cuts beyond the Budget 2008 plan because of the risk of running a deficit.
It would not be fair to say that election platforms are a tissue of lies - rather, they convey outcomes that are desired, rather than expected.
John McCallum, the party's finance critic, added an air of realism to the proceedings by saying that the speed with which spending commitments are phased in will depend on the health of the economy. "No one knows the future with any certainty," he said, reciting the mantra for any prospective government preparing the ground to renege on its promises.
The "Action Plan for the 21st Century" does at least force the Liberals to prioritize their spending commitments. Despite the hoopla about their $70-billion infrastructure plan, it turns out that there is no separate spending commitment in the four-year plan. One advisor admitted yesterday this meant the Liberals would likely spend exactly the same amount as the Conservatives on infrastructure in the first four years. "But we'll use the money faster and better," he burbled, enthusiastically.
Likewise, the $5-billion Kelowna Accord on aboriginal development, which the Conservatives have ignored and the Liberals have committed to resurrecting. Just not in the first four years of being in government, it appears. Aboriginal Canadians can expect only $2-billion over four years, according to the plan.
The commitment to introduce a universal daycare plan is another platform plank that is substantially underfunded - there is only $1.5-billion allocated in the first four years, far short of the $5-billion or so a national program would cost.
Mr. Dion emphasized his sincerity in selling his plan. "At the end of the day, Canadians will vote for the one they trust," he said.
But the issue is not his intentions - it's his competence. This election will come down to whether Canadians think the Liberal leader is capable of achieving an ambitious shift in the tax system that yields a richer, fairer, greener Canada.
Looks like more smoke and mirrors from the libs. Espeically the daycare - god it just wouldn't be an election if the liberals didn't make and break a promise on daycare. Liberals - breaking promises since 1993 :)
[updated Tue Sep 23 09:28:28 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 09:28
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Who will REALLY make the best Prime Minister?
Flash back to early August, a meeting between Mr. Harper and his most trusted political advisers.
Trusted Pollster: Mr. Harper, you have to call an election right away and make it the shortest campaign possible.
Stephen Harper: How so? I ran on fixed election dates. October, 2009, remember?
TP: No offence, Sir, but you have peaked. Your best chance of winning a majority is right now.
Political Advisor: TP’s right, Sir. We are going to lose the by-elections and, if Parliament resumes, we face continuing attacks from all opposition parties. The media will have a hay day with the scandals. The economy and the war are tanking. Obama is almost certain to win down south. And he’s not one of us.
SH: But I am the best leader up here. I’m strong and decisive. Look at the numbers.
PA: That’s why the time is now. We have Dion where we want him and, with a few finishing touches, we can destroy him and the Liberals too.
SH: Really?
TP: We’ve got him where it hurts, Sir. The media and Canadians generally have rejected Mr. Dion. He’s perceived as a nerd, a wimp, the classic “Joe Clark” treatment. May I take a little credit for our attack ads on his leadership and character right from the starting gate?
SH: Yeah. For sure. Well done. But what if the GG doesn’t agree and asks the Opposition to try it their way?
PA: Nah, she’s a newbie, not even certain why she got the job. She’ll do what you tell her to do.
SH: And we can win?
TP: We can’t win later. The PM is the last Bush poodle and even Bush is history in a few months. It’s now or never, Sir.
SH: But Canadians don’t want an election. We're doing alright. How do we explain that away?
PA: No problem, Sir. We explain that Parliament isn’t working weeks in advance, leak privileged information to our friends in the media….. that sort of thing. A week after the election is called, no one will remember why we’re having one.
[updated Tue Sep 23 19:43:18 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 19:43
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
What is your favourite quote from the debate?
"I know I won't be prime minister and three of you won't be prime minister neither," he said during the debate, gesturing at Dion, Layton and May around the table. "Some of you know it, but you won't say it."
-CBC article lol what's going on at the CBC?
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/cbc/081003/canada/news_debate_reax
[updated Fri Oct 03 16:14:04 -0400 2008]
03 Oct 16:14
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
bugsbunny
The 4 partis were elected to work together and do the right things for Canada such as the rebates for home inprovements and increasing the money in people's pockets with lower taxes so they will spend and create jobs. If the Liberals have some plans to develop new jobs through producing energy, put it on "the Parliament Order Paper"
That is how they will get elected again, not by saying the Conservatives are NOT SPENDING QUICK ENOUGH ON STIMULUS FUNDS AND THEN COMPLAINING ABOUT THE DEFICIT.
Let us have an election in 4 years time.and elect the party that did the most.
[updated Sun Oct 04 16:37:56 -0400 2009]
04 Oct 16:37
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.