CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 22, BQ 7, GP 6 (ending September 21)

Holy Crap look at the NDP!! :)

Wow - that would give the ndp about 50 seats! That's the second 2 point rise for them in a row!

The libs are still more or less within their margin of error and the cpc is obviously going to have low figures for a couple of days due to that one day of very low numbers, but i can't believe what the ndp are doing.

That's pretty stunning - could it be accurate? That would be better than they've ever done in history!

[updated Mon Sep 22 14:05:49 EDT 2008]

Good news there for the CPC. Obviously polling numbers were back up again last nite.

To fall from 38 to 36 in one day, saturday's polling sample must have come in at 31 percent.

If it had stayed that low, if that wasn't a rogue result, then today we'd have been at about 33 percent. For it to hit 35, the cpc must have polled around 38 percent last night again to give that as a three day average.

I was just a hair worried there yesterday :) but i was pretty sure it was just a rogue day. It happens. It's pretty rare to see someone lose 7 points overnight.

[updated Mon Sep 22 14:23:59 EDT 2008]

Can anyone make any sense from these results. The rolling poll supposedly interviews 400 new people every day. The number of undecided has been fairly constant so can we say that the campaign has done next to nothing to make voters choose. Why have the parties spent all this money to do so little . The CPC has spent the most from what I can tell but their numbers are going down among decided voters since they have fallen to 35% which using Sharp's method means they have been getting 31% for the last two days. The Liberals have also fallen 1% which by using the same method means they are at 30 % for one day. All these numbers are just numbers after all . If we use them for seat projections does this mean the 65% total of the opposition would result in them getting 65% of the seats or 199 of them . Another minority government with 300 million spent for nothing. Harper's fixed election date would have been pretty close to accurate since we will be having another one about that time.

[updated Mon Sep 22 15:07:20 EDT 2008]

The libs are doing just fine as their campaign gets into 2nd gear this week 3rd next week and overdrive after that. harper will need more than blue a sweater after next week. he will have to put on his ugly face and make believe Haloween is early. I still say the cons will end up at around 85 seats or maybe even below the NDP if they keep on coming which they won't.
Word around these parts is that southern Ontario is doiing just fine and thye are planning on winning more seats than last time out. They will also take a few NDP seats Kennedy's for sure and one or two others as NDP support is not that wide spread.

I will get an update on Quebec later on that promises to be interesting as the Libs are letting the Bloc do the heavy lifting for now.

I also note that Nik shows Harper's numbers down to 36% on their way to the low 20's by election day

[updated Mon Sep 22 16:06:47 EDT 2008]

I beleive that your numbers are spot on, (as always), The numbers as published by CBC and CTV and their pollsters show the Liberals to low. I do wonder however what percent of the voters are considered undecided.

[updated Mon Sep 22 16:51:31 EDT 2008]

My guess on the NDP - they are currently at 24 percent for real.

Ok - here's my math. Looking at the past polling and taking into account the running totals, the only way the ndp could have gotten 20 yesterday and 22 today is if both nights they polled 24 percent.

So for the last 2 days - they'd polled at 24 percent.

This would be expected if the cpc just dropped on the first day the ndp and the libs would go up appropriately and both would be higher.

But - the libs have not gone up again - and the cpc numbers suggest that they polled about 38 last night. In fact, the libs dropped one.

That would suggest the cpc went back up to where it was, and the libs accordingly slid slightly going back to about 30 percent (they had to poll higher than that on sat to go from 28-29 to 31). They must have polled somewhere around 30 ish last night.

So - if that's the case... then last nites' score of 24 for the ndp would probably actually be a real number. Or very close to it.

We'll know a little more tomorrow - but assuming there's no real change in the polls between now and then i have a funny feeling we're going to wake up wednesday to the cpc at 37 - 39, the libs at around 28 -29, and the ndp possibly as high as 23 -24!

That would be truly amazing - the ndp within about 4 points of the libs!

We'll know more tomorrow but right now - that's how i read the numbers.

[updated Mon Sep 22 17:18:22 EDT 2008]

Nik.There seems to be more than a little confusion over the rolling poll results. Could you possibly explain more clearly how you arrive at the numbers you post for us. Is the third day arrived at simply by interviewing 400 new people or are the previous 2 days results added to the third day numbers to arrive at a new average for the third day. To use the third days numbers on their own would just be a small poll based on 400 interviews. In order to be a rolling poll do you take the averages from the 19th and 20th and add them to the results of the interviews on the 20th to arrive at the new 3 day average on the 21st. This is as clear as mud to some of us so maybe you could clarify what you actually do with a rolling poll.

[updated Mon Sep 22 17:24:58 EDT 2008]

It's funny to watch people of all stripes trying to spin this one.

It's still surprising to me that the different polling companies are publishing such wildly different numbers. They normally vary a little bit, but not this much.

[updated Mon Sep 22 18:32:03 EDT 2008]

If each day gets the same weight, the Tories scored 31, the Libs 30 and the NDP 28 yesterday.

Tories: (38 + 36 + x)/3 = 35, so x = 31

Libs: (29 + 31 + y)/3 = 30, so y = 30

NDP: (18 + 20 = z)/3 = 22, so z = 28

Say it ain't so!

[updated Mon Sep 22 18:55:43 EDT 2008]

The darn CBC didn't broadcast my reasons 8 million Canadians will not vote in two weeks:

1) they don't have to

2) they don't like the choices

3) they don't have the time or money to get to the polling both

4) they know their votes count for nothing and until PR, these folks are right on

5) they didn't get a notice from Elections Canada, and don't know how to register or even if they can vote

6) they're too darn lazy and irresponsible

Mr. Harper should increase their sentences!

[updated Mon Sep 22 21:49:44 EDT 2008]

Attention all. Could someone explain what Nik meant in his methodology and results paragraph.above." To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped". I believe the key word is interviewing . What it is added to seems to be the only thing we don't know for sure. Since it is a rolling poll should we add it to the previous two days since we have dropped the oldest day from the calculations. Only the nose knows what the nose knows but in this case nobody knows what Nik knows.

[updated Mon Sep 22 22:44:31 EDT 2008]

Another crooked con party wannabe running for parliament:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/503919

[updated Tue Sep 23 05:13:10 EDT 2008]

I think that this extract says it all about Dion. I can’t wait for the debates when his “team” is not there to save him.

SIRI AGRELL

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail September 22, 2008 at 9:50 PM EDT

At their first joint campaign appearance of the election campaign last week, deputy Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff delivered a succinct and impassioned introduction to Stéphane Dion, describing him as a man with guts who is ready to be prime minister.

Mr. Dion then took the podium, paused to take a drink, and promptly spilled water down his tie.

[updated Tue Sep 23 08:00:15 EDT 2008]

How can anyone vote for a party like this who pick crooks for candidates:

Director suspended as women's group looks into 'accounting irregularities'
Last Updated: Monday, September 22, 2008 | 1:53 PM AT Comments8Recommend19CBC News
The woman who was briefly the federal Conservative candidate in Halifax is out of a job, after questions surfaced about her employer's finances.

The board of the All Women's Empowerment and Development Association (AWEDA) has suspended executive director Rosamond Luke without pay and temporarily closed the office.

Three months ago, the federal government gave AWEDA nearly $143,000, with Nova Scotia cabinet minister Peter MacKay delivering the cheque personally.

But now there are questions about what happened to the money.

Board chair Brenda Saunders-Todd told CBC News Monday that "accounting irregularities" have been discovered and the board has asked a lawyer for help.

Luke, who helped found AWEDA, said she knows nothing about any financial irregularities. She disputes the authority of the board to do what it has done and said her suspension is a result of her political activity.

Luke said the board isn't pleased she was chosen to run as a Conservative in the federal election.

Luke was handpicked by the party to run in the federal riding of Halifax. But she stepped down two days after she was announced as the Conservatives' pick, when her criminal record became public.

In July 2006, Luke was convicted of uttering threats and sentenced to 18 months probation. She was also convicted of breaching an undertaking in June 2007.

When she announced she was dropping out of the election race, Luke said she wanted to devote her time to AWEDA and the promotion of immigrant women.

The board issued a statement at that time saying it had the utmost confidence in Luke's integrity and ethical commitment.

[updated Tue Sep 23 08:21:47 EDT 2008]

John Ivison: New Liberal platform is a pipedream

$40-billion in carbon tax revenue, not likely

John Ivison, National Post Published: Monday, September 22, 2008

Stéphane Dion said the Liberal platform he released Monday is built on "very solid numbers," but the claim was made more in hope than expectation.

All elections are auctions where voters are invited to buy future promises that often turn out to be as worthless as a Lehman Brothers stock option plan.

So it is likely to prove with the Liberal platform, which anticipates spending and foregone tax revenue of $55-billion over four years. This would be partly offset by $40-billion in revenue from the carbon tax. The remaining $15-billion would be covered by the surplus from current operations (Budget 2008, estimated an operating balance of $17.5-billion over four years, when planned expenditures are subtracted from anticipated revenues).

The biggest problem for Mr. Dion is not that he won't be able to raise $40-billion within four years from the carbon tax. The figure is based on work done by Jack Mintz of the University of Calgary and Nancy Olewiler of Simon Fraser University, who estimated revenues of $15-billion a year, once the tax reached $40 per tonne of carbon dioxide. Professor Mintz said yesterday that revenues might be reduced in a slowing economy but that the Liberal number is not "out of range."

The question is, what happens next? The answer is, no one knows.

If the carbon tax works as the Liberal leader hopes, emissions will tumble as people substitute away from carbon. But if they tumble, so will tax revenue and what will then pay for the $55-billion tax cut and spending plan that he has already set in place? Will the $16-billion in personal income tax cuts be rescinded? A number of European countries have already gone down this route by introducing a carbon tax, spending the proceeds and then being forced to find new revenue sources, such as employment insurance or mandatory pension fund premiums, when the tax dried up.

This is the fundamental flaw in Mr. Dion's Green Shift - the carbon tax that he eschewed for so long suddenly became attractive as a means of funding an unfunded commitment to reduce the number of people living below the poverty line by 30% and the number of children living in poverty by at least 50%. Over four years, this package of measures will cost nearly $15-billion at a time when economists are urging that no party should promise to move spending or tax cuts beyond the Budget 2008 plan because of the risk of running a deficit.

It would not be fair to say that election platforms are a tissue of lies - rather, they convey outcomes that are desired, rather than expected.

John McCallum, the party's finance critic, added an air of realism to the proceedings by saying that the speed with which spending commitments are phased in will depend on the health of the economy. "No one knows the future with any certainty," he said, reciting the mantra for any prospective government preparing the ground to renege on its promises.

The "Action Plan for the 21st Century" does at least force the Liberals to prioritize their spending commitments. Despite the hoopla about their $70-billion infrastructure plan, it turns out that there is no separate spending commitment in the four-year plan. One advisor admitted yesterday this meant the Liberals would likely spend exactly the same amount as the Conservatives on infrastructure in the first four years. "But we'll use the money faster and better," he burbled, enthusiastically.

Likewise, the $5-billion Kelowna Accord on aboriginal development, which the Conservatives have ignored and the Liberals have committed to resurrecting. Just not in the first four years of being in government, it appears. Aboriginal Canadians can expect only $2-billion over four years, according to the plan.

The commitment to introduce a universal daycare plan is another platform plank that is substantially underfunded - there is only $1.5-billion allocated in the first four years, far short of the $5-billion or so a national program would cost.

Mr. Dion emphasized his sincerity in selling his plan. "At the end of the day, Canadians will vote for the one they trust," he said.

But the issue is not his intentions - it's his competence. This election will come down to whether Canadians think the Liberal leader is capable of achieving an ambitious shift in the tax system that yields a richer, fairer, greener Canada.

Looks like more smoke and mirrors from the libs. Espeically the daycare - god it just wouldn't be an election if the liberals didn't make and break a promise on daycare. Liberals - breaking promises since 1993 :)

[updated Tue Sep 23 09:28:28 EDT 2008]

Who will REALLY make the best Prime Minister?

Flash back to early August, a meeting between Mr. Harper and his most trusted political advisers.

Trusted Pollster: Mr. Harper, you have to call an election right away and make it the shortest campaign possible.

Stephen Harper: How so? I ran on fixed election dates. October, 2009, remember?

TP: No offence, Sir, but you have peaked. Your best chance of winning a majority is right now.

Political Advisor: TP’s right, Sir. We are going to lose the by-elections and, if Parliament resumes, we face continuing attacks from all opposition parties. The media will have a hay day with the scandals. The economy and the war are tanking. Obama is almost certain to win down south. And he’s not one of us.

SH: But I am the best leader up here. I’m strong and decisive. Look at the numbers.

PA: That’s why the time is now. We have Dion where we want him and, with a few finishing touches, we can destroy him and the Liberals too.

SH: Really?

TP: We’ve got him where it hurts, Sir. The media and Canadians generally have rejected Mr. Dion. He’s perceived as a nerd, a wimp, the classic “Joe Clark” treatment. May I take a little credit for our attack ads on his leadership and character right from the starting gate?

SH: Yeah. For sure. Well done. But what if the GG doesn’t agree and asks the Opposition to try it their way?

PA: Nah, she’s a newbie, not even certain why she got the job. She’ll do what you tell her to do.

SH: And we can win?

TP: We can’t win later. The PM is the last Bush poodle and even Bush is history in a few months. It’s now or never, Sir.

SH: But Canadians don’t want an election. We're doing alright. How do we explain that away?

PA: No problem, Sir. We explain that Parliament isn’t working weeks in advance, leak privileged information to our friends in the media….. that sort of thing. A week after the election is called, no one will remember why we’re having one.

[updated Tue Sep 23 19:43:18 EDT 2008]

What is your favourite quote from the debate?

"I know I won't be prime minister and three of you won't be prime minister neither," he said during the debate, gesturing at Dion, Layton and May around the table. "Some of you know it, but you won't say it."

-CBC article lol what's going on at the CBC?
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/cbc/081003/canada/news_debate_reax

[updated Fri Oct 03 16:14:04 EDT 2008]

The 4 partis were elected to work together and do the right things for Canada such as the rebates for home inprovements and increasing the money in people's pockets with lower taxes so they will spend and create jobs. If the Liberals have some plans to develop new jobs through producing energy, put it on "the Parliament Order Paper"

That is how they will get elected again, not by saying the Conservatives are NOT SPENDING QUICK ENOUGH ON STIMULUS FUNDS AND THEN COMPLAINING ABOUT THE DEFICIT.
Let us have an election in 4 years time.and elect the party that did the most.

[updated Sun Oct 04 16:37:56 EDT 2009]