CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 31, NDP 20, BQ 7, GP 7 (ending September 20)

Pucker up mutt and jeff things are coming around for the Libs.......hey mutt how about a seat count now.

Layton's numbers will take a full hit over the next few days as the "pot" story sinks in.

The tories will now start another series of attack ads as the numbers close in and the Libs are just waiting to splatter Harper with some of their own mud slinging.

MAYBE this is shaping up as another installment of how the west lost again.

[updated Sun Sep 21 14:10:16 EDT 2008]

Nik - it seems that the rolling results from you and most other polls shows that nobody who has made up their minds has changed their minds from as far back as the last election in Jan 2006. The actual results then were Cons 36.3, Libs 30.2, NDP 17.5 who's 20 % today is within the margin of error. Bloc had 10.5 - now 7% and the Greens had 5% and up to 7%, again within the margin of error. Nothing has changed in this unnecessary election..

You noted in an earlier poll that 60% of Canadian voters were up for grabs. I recall that was undecideds and potential support changers. Since nothing has changed in expressed in decided voter intentions since the last election, that undecided and swing voter is where the action is don't you think?

The election is not generating much interest so what is there to motivate undecideds? Fear of a Harper majority seems to be one possiblity? Swing voters may get motiviated for those reasons too and then the NDP and Greens will vote strategically for Liberals in close ridings. Ontario may fear a Conservative surge in Quebec and balance it off with a Liberal Ontario. BC is a toss up and Atlantic Canada is still ticked with Harper but don't want to be punished by a Harper win. Still wait and see if Danny Williams is persuasive to Maritimers to vote against Harper with his ABC efforts.

Please poll more about what it would take to get undecideds off their indifference and what would motivate a swing voter to switch. That could make a lot of difference in the outcome.

[updated Sun Sep 21 14:18:09 EDT 2008]

If these numbers are a straight average of three days' polls, Mr. Harper must have had a very bad day yesterday to have dropped so much. The financial mayhem down south, universally abscribed to the Bush neocons being asleep at the switch, is surely a growing factor. Mr. Harper was asleep at the food safety switch, and indeed is working feverishly to offload a whole slew of public safety matters to the very corporations that threaten it.

Or maybe Saturday was simply the proverbial one out of 20 times when Nik gets it wrong.

Can't wait until tomorrow!

[updated Sun Sep 21 14:36:47 EDT 2008]

ABC -- it's not just for Maritimers anymore!
http://www.anythingbutconservative.com/

Be sure to join the facebook group!

[updated Sun Sep 21 14:39:31 EDT 2008]

These three day rolling results are very close to the final numbers in the 2006 election when the Conservatives won a minority position. The forecast here is for another minority Conservative government. That will keep the Conservatives in power for 3 or 4 years.

[updated Sun Sep 21 14:42:46 EDT 2008]

Breaking news another tory bigot resigns:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/503298

The Conservative candidate running in downtown Toronto against Liberal Bob Rae has abruptly resigned.

Toronto Centre candidate Chris Reid withdrew this weekend.

A spokeswoman in the Tory campaign war room says Reid told the party he couldn't commit to serving four years in government.

But the Liberals claim Reid quit because of controversial Internet comments in a blog allegedly written by Reid, where he allegedly promotes carrying concealed weapons as a way to fight violent crime.

The blog, "Political thoughts from a Gay Conservative", is no longer available.

A blogger using the name Chris Reid writes in one entry : "If women and gays really wanted to stop being victims of hate crimes, they'd be in support of this, but judging from discussions, they'd rather be helpless and rely on government."

[updated Sun Sep 21 15:20:46 EDT 2008]

I don't understand, why do the numbers add up to 120%?

[updated Sun Sep 21 17:51:09 EDT 2008]

I agree with rsharp's point "If these numbers are a straight average of three days' polls, Mr. Harper must have had a very bad day yesterday to have dropped so much." Even so, it's hard to tell a trend from noise.

If I was a Con-voter (never again), I'd be concerned that the Undecided are steady, Libs are trending up and PCs are trending down. That suggests that as some leave Undecided, they go to the Libs but at the same time others are leaving the PCs and going to the Undecided.

But check back tomorrow.

[updated Sun Sep 21 20:36:22 EDT 2008]

Even more interesting than the national numbers are the regional numbers. With the dippers now over 21% in Ontario, and trending higher, many close Liberal seats especially in Northern Ontario and Toronto 416 are now very vulnerable. Beaches East York, Davenport and York Centre in Toronto, as well as Thunder Bay/Rainy river, Superior North, Sault Ste Marie, Nickle Belt, are all potential NDP takes. NDP also now threatens the Conservatives in Oshawa and Kenora. In addition, the Libs are threatened by the Conservatives in many rural ridings.

In Atlantic Canada a full three way race is shaping up, and this could reult in more Liberal losses.

All other regions show the NDP above their levels of support from the 2006 election except BC, and even there NDP numbers ae rebounding.

Layton keeps saying he is running for Prime Minister, and many laughed when they heard that. He won't be moving into Sussex drive this time, but Stornoway is definitelt within reach.

[updated Mon Sep 22 08:34:41 EDT 2008]

I gotta LOVE this poll. The Liberals have 'hung on' for 3 days and now are just 5 points behind the cpc !! LOL
'foxer' et al out there in 'Nanosland', now that the cpc 'slide' is for REAL as it has 'held' for 3 days - what do you have to say, my fine 'feathered' western friends ??
I won't say I told you so, and the 'Liberal surge' hasn't even started yet !! LOL
I''ll save some for another time, but this is GREAT news and bears out EVERYTHING I've been saying. BTW - 'foxer' Did you get the 'link' to flaherty's unmitigated stupidity I sent you ??!!

Using the 'cpc' LOGIC for the plus-minus factor which they ALWAYS use, with Nanos the plus-minus is 2.8% - We are in a 'statistical tie' with the cpc, using that logic !! LOL The Liberals may be, using that LOGIC from the cpcers on this board just may have a 'slight' lead !! LOL

We'll see, but THIS is 'music to my ears' !! For now you cpcers can 'eat crow'. There's ONLY really(including today, Sept 30th) 13 days of campaigning left - Oct 13th, Thanksgiving and Oct 14th - election !! OY VAY(with all due respect to my Jewish friends who are celebrating 'Rosh Hashana' today). THERE'S NO WAY HARPER CAN GET A MAJORITY NOW !! He may even lose the whole 'kit and kaboodle' !! LOL
harper's 'cooked' - 'roasted' - 'fried' - 'tarred and feathered'(which he should be) - 'done like dinner' and MORE !! LOL The REAL Canadians are 'coming home' in the polls and we 'ain't done yet' !! LOL
Get out the 'wheel' boys out there !! The cpc has GOT to 'sharpen' their knives ! LOL

I'll take anything I can get, but what I have been saying all along is true. harper IS a'phony' and an 'imposter' and as this campaign goes along, more and more people are realising it !! He's a 'western separatist' from the get-go and NEVER could or would be a pm for ALL of Canada !! REAL Canadians, keep it coming and 'give yourselves a pat on the back' while you're at it !!

ALL this good news and we've ONLY Dion, yet WHAT a Liberal 'front bench' !! harper's got HIS front bench filled with 'muted' puppets who wouldn't utter a word without his appoval and they are a hopeless bunch anyway !! LOL

Cheers -MBAGS P.S. Vote 'early and often' - LOL - and vote LIBERAL if you CARE about your country !! THAT one was NOT said in jest. Thank you again - MBAGS(for voting Liberal).

[updated Tue Sep 30 13:52:20 EDT 2008]