Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their national lead with 38% support, followed by the Liberals at 29%, the NDP at 18%, and the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party tied at 7%. In the battleground province of Ontario, the Tories are statistically tied with the Liberals, and similarly, in Quebec with the Bloc. While Stephen Harper remains the leader in Canada’s choice for Prime Minister, his rating on the leadership index has slipped to 94 points. Jack Layton is up on the index to 51 points, replacing Stéphane Dion who drops to third at 36 points. Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe follow, with 14 and 13 points respectively.
Tomorrow, Nik Nanos, President of Nanos Research and Official CPAC Pollster, joins Goldhawk Live host Dale Goldhawk at 7 pm ET / 4 pm PT to discuss the latest findings. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 18, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=986, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 38% (-1)
- Liberal Party 29% (+1)
- NDP 18% (NC)
- BQ 7% (NC)
- Green Party 7% (NC)
- Undecided 18% (+1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 37% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 17% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 15% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 3% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 18% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 94 (-9)
- Jack Layton 51 (+9)
- Stephane Dion 36 (-17)
- Elizabeth May 14 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 13 (+4)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
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Highest Rated Comments
There are still 18% undecided, but I guess it depends whether people in this cat... more
gretag (Ontario) 20 Sep 14:20
Things dont seem to be changing much. Slight moves up slight moves down. Its a... more
fortescue (Ontario) 20 Sep 14:09
To use the old cliché, "The only poll that counts is on election day." And befo... more
Hope (Ontario) 20 Sep 18:05
There are still 18% undecided, but I guess it depends whether people in this cat... more
gretag (Ontario) 20 Sep 14:20
KRB, you appear to be very tied to the party system. Since I never know from on... more
gretag (Ontario) 20 Sep 15:31
Dion has no idea what it is to manage on the right. You are delusional.... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 21 Sep 23:18
Comments
fortescue
Things dont seem to be changing much. Slight moves up slight moves down. Its as if people have made up ther mind and are not moving. Will this campaign make a difference?
[updated Sat Sep 20 14:09:05 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 14:09
98 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gretag
There are still 18% undecided, but I guess it depends whether people in this category vote or not. Also there is still more than 3 weeks to go -- too early to say nothing will move substantially.
[updated Sat Sep 20 14:20:16 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 14:20
KRB
Still early days, for sure. But the trends look good for a first-term minority gov't being returned with an enhanced mandate. The adage is that gov'ts defeat themselves, and while the Libs supporters could rhyme off a laundry list of instant "deal breakers" for the gov't, the average Canadian voter simply wouldn't buy it. We don't toss out gov'ts willy-nilly ... hell, it took 2 elections to turf the Liberals for the Sponsorship Scandal, the worst ever scandal in modern-day Canadian politics!
I will never count out the LPC until the last vote is tallied; they have amazing brand resilience, propped up by the biggest base of "blind faith" supporters of any party. There's much to admire and support about liberalism, but the political vehicle in Canada for that movement is rotten, repugnant to many, and too full of themselves to notice any of this. I for one pray for a united party on the left (Liberal Democrats, anyone?), one that takes the best elements of both constituent parties - the principle and conviction of the New Democrats, and the practicality and pragmatism of the Liberal party - while jettisoning their worst elements (crass opportunism, arrogance and a sense of entitlement in the Liberals, and economic naivete, piety, and a mistrust of anything religious with the New Democrats).
[updated Sat Sep 20 15:08:38 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 15:08
gretag
KRB, you appear to be very tied to the party system. Since I never know from one election to the next which party I will vote for, I have a different view. Strikes me that parties change a fair amount with leaders. I don't see the Harper Conservatives to be like the Clark or Mulroney Conservatives. Sure there are some similarities, but there are also similarities between the different parties at different times.
I guess I know too much about the NDP on the ground these days to think of them as a principled party, even though under previous leaders they have been. Layton has abandoned a lot of the previous principles, whether it is working with Harper to keep May out of the debates or pretending Canadians are too stupid to know that cap and trade and a carbon tax both end up costing consumers or waffling on whether they support marijuana activists or not. With a different leader, it could change again.
[updated Sat Sep 20 15:31:44 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 15:31
User1
How can one change from a Liberal to a Consertive or vice versa, it baffles me. Liberals are supposed to be rallying liberals to vote. The only targets for parties should be the undecideds or soft voters but any mature voter should not be wondering who to vote for. This to me is a blonde mentality.
[updated Sun Sep 21 16:56:10 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 16:56
It does not baffle me why we can move our vote. Its called open minds and review of track record.
[updated Sat Sep 27 13:10:13 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 13:10
elf
KRB - I agree with you - a united left would be something I could live with - not too far left to break us but left enough to have a social conscience which is sadly lacking in Harpers world - and an envitonmental platform that would not drive us into financial ruin so a few of the Greens policies would be ok in there too - I am sure that a united Left would easily win an election in Canada
[updated Sat Sep 20 16:03:02 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 16:03
Bernie
Who is there on the left to be united. The Cons are far right. The Libs are a litle right. The NDP who used to be left are now close to centre. The Greens are all over the spectrum., They have policies that are left, centre and some as rright as Harper,
As I've said before I never vote for personality or party but for those who have the most important policies that parllel my own. At the monent the greens come closest.
[updated Sun Sep 21 07:35:08 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 07:35
User1
It is true and if I had a chioce i would vote for Barrack Obama, the fact is people should only vote for a party closest to their political values who is going to have a fair chance of forming a government otherwise it is a valuable but wasted vote
[updated Sun Sep 21 16:59:27 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 16:59
Bernie
User1
No vote is a wasted vote. You should always vote your conscience. You should vote for policies that closest reflect your own.
Otherwise you are supporting the opinion of others rather than your own
One exception is when you know one party or person will do serious damage to your country then you have to vote strategically to keep that party or person out.
The Green party's policies as expressed by Elizabeth May most closely reflect my own and in the proper priority.
[updated Mon Sep 22 08:03:45 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 08:03
KRB, Harper did defeat himself, by dissolving Parliament. Perhaps you overstate in calling Sponsoship the worst scandal. The most investigated, maybe. Some fraud, that too. But, how many Ministers or MPs have been convicted of anything? And, by the way, Mr. Harper is sitting on "half" the enquiry's recommendations: reform of the Access to Information Act to make the government more transparent and accountable.
You also allude to the Liberals being rotten, repugnant, crass, opportunistic and arrogant. You find fault with their blind faith and sense of entitlement. You provide almost no support for any of these wild allegations.
I believe, if you asked Canadians which of the LIberal or Conservative parties do you associate with these failings, most would name the latter, and Harper, not Dion.
[updated Sat Sep 20 16:41:06 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 16:41
Bernie
I agree. I will not be supporting the Liberals but I believe in truth and honesty. And I don't believe the "Sponsorship Scandal" was such a big deal as scandals go. Some must be to young to remember the scandals of the past. This didn't benefit the Liberal Party very much. Only about $40 million was unaccounted for and nearly all that went to Quebec businessmen. I see no evidence of any Liberal politician getting a cent with the possible exception of Gaglianno. The Cons and Liberal haters spun the myth for all its worth. Just showing how dishonest they are themselves.
However they wasted money , not millions but billions, on other useless endeavors,It's funny if you give billions to large corporations there is no big outcry , bit smaller amounts to smaller business and its a major scandal.
And of course that's the Liberals of an earlier time , not those now.
The present government gives billions to very rich oil companies and 8 billion to get our citizens killed in Afghanistan for no reason other than appease George Bush.
We know Paul Martin started this and we got rid of him. But over 90 have died since Harper took over and we have his party leading in the polls. I'll never understand Canadian voters. I guess human is not a priority with them , especially someone else's life.
[updated Sun Sep 21 07:56:31 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 07:56
User1
You're dead on. The only way that the conservatives won the last election was through propoganda which Canadians bought. If you ask 9 out of 10 Canadians what is their understanding of the sponsorship scandal they do not know what it meant. The conservative Government carried on with the scandals and negative adds throughout their term in office this time running propoganda adds against Stephane Dion. In the meantime jobs were being lost left right and centre, jobs being replaced with minimum paying wages. Go Canada Go
[updated Sun Sep 21 17:05:44 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 17:05
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Bernie, then don't waste your vote by voting for anyone else on the left. The Liberals are the best bet for getting rid of Harper and that should be the lesser of all evils.
[updated Sun Sep 21 21:42:42 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 21:42
Bernie
TPQ John Cannis , the Liberal, has won here 5 times and I feel sure he will win again. So i will give you the same answer as I gave User1.
You should always vote your conscience. You should vote for policies that closest reflect your own. Otherwise you are supporting the opinion of others rather than your own
One exception is when you know one party or person will do serious damage to your country then you have to vote strategically to keep that party or person out.
The Green party's policies as expressed by Elizabeth May most closely reflect my own and in the proper priority.
[updated Mon Sep 22 08:08:16 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 08:08
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
bernie, when you realize that Harper is the furthest from The greens in policy then maybe you will realize that a vote for may is vote for Harper. The so called left voter needs to coalesce around one party. The fact of the matter is tha tthe left will merge in some form or other and the libs/greens will be the first. The NDP are a bunch of idealogues like the Harpercrites and will never give up their dream of a socialist utopia. Based on Niks current poll results a merged green/lib party would be tied with the harpercrites.
[updated Mon Sep 22 08:20:52 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 08:20
elf
I completely agree - in a post responding to my suggestion the Mr Dion was honest, many people replied that the entire Liberal party was guilty in the Sponsorship affair and that they still owed millions to the country - and I have heard Harper say that too in a speech this week - this is the scarey part - they buy into these lies and then vote - these naive people seem willing to belive anything - all the election fraud info. has disappeared lately and there's not been any mention of the Cadman affair either - theres still the Mulroney stuff to deal with too
[updated Sun Sep 21 14:05:31 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 14:05
User1
don;t worry, The Liberal Party will be there in 4 years to cut services, reduce transfer payments and do yomans work to balance the books. Tell me has there ever been one Conservative govt who has not run up a massive deficit. We are heading in that direction. But do not worry there is a good leader at the helm.
[updated Sun Sep 21 17:10:00 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 17:10
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
elf, don't worry the cadman and and election farud events are not forgotten. The lbs will remind voters about them closer in so they will remember when they vote.
[updated Sun Sep 21 21:44:21 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 21:44
Foxer
Well - anything can happen and that's the truth. But - we can compare this to previous elections and known trends amongst voters.
I'll remind you that when all this started, the cpc was polling 32 and the libs 35. Now the cpc is 38-39 steadily and the libs are 28-29.
That movement tells a story, and what we can say now is it's pretty darn close to impossible for the libs to win this election.
Further - harper has the momentum. Partly because he's achieved it, partly because the NDP are gaining momentum as well and both of those facts take momentum away from the libs.
What we have to ask now is 'will the libs collapse'. There's a very real chance of that - they need a hell of a good performance in the debates.
[updated Sat Sep 20 21:47:48 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 21:47
elf
Harper's voters are pretty determined and already fixed - as the time to vote gets closer many women will begin to decide who really speaks for them - many like the NDP poicies but they will go Liberal to be sure of stopping Harper - any undecideds who see that there is likely to be a Harper majority be voting strategically to keep him in check - I would hope this campaign makes a difference and will bring back a Liberal in charge - even if it is a minority - it will be much better than what we have now - in fact sticking pins in my eyes would almost be better than a Harper majority - and I am sure I am not alone
[updated Sat Sep 20 16:09:58 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 16:09
Foxer
I'm thinking there's a pretty good chance voters will floc TO the ndp to 'stop harper'.
Lets face it - dion didn't exactly do anything to 'stop harper' when he was in power last time - it's not likely to be much different this time. The ndp will appeal to liberals to jump ship, and that might just happen. That's what happened last time, and they've got a stronger case this time.
[updated Sat Sep 20 21:49:15 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 21:49
User1
alas quebec refenadum
[updated Sun Sep 21 18:07:23 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 18:07
elf
Foxer - you know Libs are damned if they do and damned if they don't - the voters would not have taken kjindly to Dion pulling the plug and dragging us back to the polls - it really had to be the CONs that did that - it was like playing chicken and Harper had to call it becasue he knew after having no Parliamentary session they always look bettter - if they had returned to parliament their usual bad behaviour would have given them a very different level of support
[updated Mon Sep 22 12:38:50 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 12:38
Foxer
Well elf, i won't entirely disagree with you - there was an amusing tounge-in-cheek article a ways back showing all of dion's options and how each and every one would make him look worse :)
I think what dion's plan was consisted of floating the green plan, seeing if it was popular, then pulling the plug if it was. If it wasn't - go ahead business as usual and then next year release a new plan.
I think one thing dion counted on was to be able to call the election to erase the 'impression' that he did nothing but fail to show up for votes again and again. IN fact, in a perfect dion world he would have voted against a confidence motion but the block or ndp would have propped up the gov't at least once, thereby making it so that he could claim it wasn't the libs who 'gave harper a majority while he had a minority'.
Parliament wouldn't have changed the CPC's situation one bit. The problem for the cpc was that if they went back now they would have to release new agenda items before an election - weakening them if the libs did call an election. They'd pretty much run their last mandate into the ground. So they needed a fresh mandate and wanted to do that in an election rather than give their hand away before an election.
Of course - most of all they wanted to force dion to run on the green shift, which is exactly what's happened.
In politics you never never EVER give away your platform prorities before an election. Harper and layton knew that, the CPC and NDP have both learned that the hard way over the years. Dion made a rookie mistake, but i think he never suspected he'd be forced to run on it if he didn't want to.
For the ndp - this has been a godsend. I will be stunned and amazed if the phrase 'you didn't vote for canadians, why should they vote for you' doesn't come out of layton's mouth during the debates. Everyone thinks that dion is a complete wimp for not voting harper down during parliament, and it looks like he's so easy to push around that he just can't be trusted with the gov't keys just yet.
The right move for dion was to roll the dice on the very first confidence issue that came up and go to the polls, then tell his party that they'd take the time to prepare for the next one. But the liberals just didn't have the money for it.
Still - after 2 and change years, dion should have been a lot more ready than this for an election. Its a truly abysmal showing on his part. And that more than anything is murdering him. It's not that harper says he 's not a leader - its that people can SEE he's not a leader.
Dion was just the wrong choice. And whoever replaces him is going to have a tough time - the party will be reduced in power and will be severely broke. I mean - SEVERELY broke. It will be an uphill battle for even a great leader to recover the party in the next 4 years, and probably it will take more like 8 to 10. And that's if its a great leader.
[updated Mon Sep 22 12:52:41 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 12:52
Thats what Chretien did the to the Tories so they could not get a firm footing and challenge his government. Why does this shock the liberals Harper took a page out of his book?
[updated Sat Sep 27 10:55:28 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 10:55
User1
Its all about Politics, if Harper had waited until the several RCMP investigations were completed, the Mulroney affair was completed, the Maxine Bernier affair, the Elections Canada affair the Cadman affair the publicity would be very negative. So he pre-empted Canadanians with DION is not a leader propogander, like an elementry school kid. He did much to damage the reputation of Dion plus brainwash the minds of the population. Now he is heading for a Majority. So as far as the conservatives are concerned all is fine, there is no need to make any promises the minds of the population is already corrupt.
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:24:33 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 15:24
elf
fortesque - I replied to your post but somehow it slid down to another space ??? - go figure - scroll down if you want to read it -
[updated Sat Sep 20 16:12:26 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 16:12
fortescue
Reading through the responses, There are some good thoughts. I do believe the liberals have the strongest brand and peple who will vote for them regardless. I do not know why I believe this nor can I offer any support. Perhaps it is drawn from the appearance that the party is outpolling the leader?
I'm not sure perhaps NIK can help?
(I think I found your post elf :)
[updated Sat Sep 20 17:03:41 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 17:03
elf
I know it's odd - but maybe like me Liberals support the policies - that's what the Liberal brand is all about - the policies are after all what really matter aren't they ? I appreciate the fact that everyone is different not everyone has the same charisma - but like many others I also appreciate intelligence and Mr Dion beats Harper in that deptartment hands down
[updated Sun Sep 21 14:10:23 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 14:10
How does one leader's ability to score better in an academic measurement make him a better PM? Are you saying people with high IQ should govern only?
[updated Sat Sep 27 10:58:23 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 10:58
elf
informed 1 - not at all however it is bound to make a difference expecially when you add it to other advantages such as experience gained from representing Canada on the world stage, the travelling to other countries and lrearning different methods of governance, serving in a parliament for many years and being the person who was responsible for ensuring the unity of Canada ( the Clarity Act ) - add these to a professorship - all these in addition to high intellect one would assume that there would be an advantage and that this person is likely to be a better choice for leader status than a degree in one subject and a lack of world experience - Harper has a masters is economics but had not travelled out of N America before he became PM ergo he has limited experience and governs from inside the country and does not represent Canada well as we relate to the rest of the world - Canada does not exist in isolation - that is the problem that occurred under Bush and his attitude to the rest of the world - look where that got him and the American people
[updated Mon Sep 29 09:45:52 -0400 2008]
29 Sep 09:45
I understand you feel Dion's net experiences make him a better leader than Harper for the reason you listed above.
I would challenge some of your reasoning because I would argue history has provided great leaders prior to world travel (planes, trains, ships).
I look forward to the debate and wish Dion well. Only the Liberals and Tories can form the government based on first past the post system and the majority of polling.
[updated Mon Sep 29 10:21:35 -0400 2008]
29 Sep 10:21
User1
I resent the word 'brand' in a political party, it may be sexy sounding word but this is politics and not business. Branding should only be associated with a product. The Liberal Party is the only true party which represents the interest of Canadians in terms of Culture, Values, Human Rights, Immigration and a balance Budget
[updated Sun Sep 21 17:13:44 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 17:13
Branding has been going on forever and will. Parties use colours,fonts, and images to distinguish their brand (Party) to the general population. Ever see Jack Layton in tailored suits addressing the public?
User1 as a person who has voted for the NDP,Liberals and now the Tories it dissappoints me to see "blind" loyalty to any party or platform. It removes any objectivity from your arguements.
No individual party or platform holds rights or claims to "Culture, Values, Human Rights, Immigration and a balance Budget" and stating it and waving your brands signage wont change it.
This forum is great if you have a point to debate and we can challenge it, but refusing to be open eliminates your opportunity to any rational debate.
Goodluck.
[updated Sat Sep 27 11:10:06 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 11:10
Peggy
It will if the opposition continue to do what they are doing now. Does anyone else find it more offensive that the Ritz affair is played out over and over again in the faces of these families for pure political gain. I know we need to know the facts-we got them, an hour after it was released-most people had the whole story. To keep it alive for pure political gain I find more offensive than the original comments!!!!!
[updated Sat Sep 20 16:48:24 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 16:48
fortescue
Peggy
I agree that it is smear politics at its best. I was trying to come up with a conservative equivelent. perhaps there constant playing of Dion's "it not easy to make priorities comment."
Although i do not believe that one is as mean spirited. Looking for examples. Keep it clean everyone!!!!
[updated Sat Sep 20 17:09:30 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 17:09
gretag
Actually, a few of the family members are speaking out and don't like the way Ritz has handled things. It is not just his crude jokes at their expense, but also keeping them in the dark, and of course, the whole matter of standards and inspections.
It is always difficult to change the status quo and leaving this issue alone will likely lead to more future deaths. Harper and Ritz make it clear that they don't see much problem beyond the political one for them personally, so it will take people really hitting them over the head with this to cause any changes.
[updated Sat Sep 20 18:32:47 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 18:32
gretag, right on. Mr. Harper couldn't care less about food safety, nor environmental/ worker/ consumer protection. He's a privatization/deregulaion ideologue. Industries can regulate themselves, don't you know?
Yeah. Like I trust Watt Street.
[updated Sat Sep 20 18:46:11 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 18:46
westerner (suspended)
All Liberal policies are good, all Conservative policies are bad. Black and White logic. Good for Canada.
[updated Sat Sep 20 19:07:18 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 19:07
westerner, I think you've captured this campaign's essence
[updated Sat Sep 20 19:38:35 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 19:38
westerner (suspended)
Yes indeed. Thank You.
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:02:22 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:02
Bernie
Peggy
I, too, was upset with this. This especially was despicable. Also all these gaffs are not really important. The politicians keep bringing them up as if we cared. Maybe they think that things will appeal to the weak-minded voters. and thereby get a few votes. It insults me and turns off from voting for the. These are silly slips-of-the-tongue indiscretions that occur anytime. We are all guilty of them. Politicians are human too, Well some of them are; sometimes! :-) It's not something we can hang on them,; or hang them for.
There are lots of serious things we can judge them on.
But even worse than the politicians are the media. They turn these things into major events and keep repeating them. Don't they realize what fools they show us that they are?
I read a column by Rex Murphy in yesterdays Globe and Nail. Rex is a wordsmith. He can write an essay on sewage and make it smell like a rose. Great writing style but no substance. In contrast I read another article even better writing ability but with substance added. I don't thing Murphy can do that.
Here's an excerpt This was in reference to the Bush presidency and how the media handled it.
"The disease manifested itself almost everywhere at once, but the superficial effects were most spectacular in our national mirror, the Media, which absorbed and digested the once proud opposition of the Press and made of it a mere legitimizer of horrors."
It's a great piece. It's entitled "The Naughts" in September issue of Harper's magazine.
[updated Sun Sep 21 08:35:49 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 08:35
elf
no actualy I do not find that offensive I do however find the minister and his comments very offensive
[updated Sun Sep 21 14:11:10 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 14:11
User1
You as an individual is persuaded by the company you keep
[updated Sun Sep 21 18:09:08 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 18:09
majere
You people seem to be missing Harpers' strategy. Harper does not care who wins this election.
If Harper wins, he will goad the opposition to vote a non confidence on a very distastefull budget.
If Harper loses and the Libs have a small minority, Harper will vote non confidence.
The end result people is more debt for the Liberal Party. Dion will be bankrupt.
And oh yea, Harper will take the following election with a strong minority or a weak majority.
Think beyond this election, as this one in Harpers' eyes do not count except for allowing him to show his rough edges have worn off (supposedly)
cheers :) majere
[updated Sat Sep 20 19:23:12 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 19:23
larryl
majere. You have this figured out but give Harper too much credit. It is not his strategy since he is just a puppet being controlled by the neo-cons led by Tom Flanagan. Our only hope is a Liberal minority that will be supported by other opposition parties who will be in the same financial predicament as the Liberals. If they can make a minority government work for 3 to 4 years they will have time to get their finances back in order. Layton and the Bloc will hold the balance of power and control much of the agenda of a Dion Minority. They would force major changes to or even abandoning the Green Shift plan . A minority left wing government would be a definite improvement over the unethical right we have been forced to endure .
[updated Sat Sep 20 20:39:31 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 20:39
westerner (suspended)
News headlines for the MSM. Read all about it! "HARPER LED BY TOM FLANAGAN" This should make the headlines in Sunday's Toronto Star and the G & M. What insight! What brilliance! Who knew this was going on?
Who the hell is Tom Flanagan?
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:10:00 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:10
larryl
If you don't know who and what Mr. Flanagan is , how would the average Canadian, who only takes an interest in politics when there is an election going on, know anything about him? The CPC has kept his role as Harper's right hand man a secret just like they have kept Harper' s real agenda a well guarded secret. A westerner who admits he knows nothing about who controls the puppet strings would make a better headline.
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:19:51 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:19
westerner (suspended)
His role has been kept a secret?; that is why he appears on TV political panels regularly. You need to understand sarcasm when you see it.
The hidden agenda you really should be worried about is the far left wing agenda of Steve Dion, which is a well guarded secret.
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:27:48 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:27
larryl
So you do know who and what he is. A right wing Republican who groomed and nursed his student for 20 years . He has appeared on political panels but I don't recall ever seeing him until the election was called. Have you read anything about him and his extreme right wing philosophy? I doubt it.
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:42:15 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:42
westerner (suspended)
He appeared on many political panels and talk shows before the election discussing his new book which I assume you have read. It was free publicity for the book and if you haven't read any of his books you should do so, so you begin to know what you are talking about.
You sound very much like old Parnel who is now missing in action. Are you Parnel in sheeps clothing?
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:49:27 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:49
Bernie
larryl
Right on Flanagan trained him well. The Republican administration must be proud of him.
[updated Sun Sep 21 08:41:45 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 08:41
Geez. Who cares about officios' backgrounds? What are the issues? On these, Mr. Harper loses, time and again.
[updated Sun Sep 21 18:18:18 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 18:18
User1
Good question. I have always asked 'who is pushing Stephen Harper's button"
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:32:11 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 15:32
westerner (suspended)
Conservatives 38%; Liberals 29%. Must be a lot of dumb Canadians, eh.
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:12:39 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:12
larryl
I think the right word was used by E May . How else could one explain electing Lyin Brain twice. Of course it was only temporary stupidity and we will not make that mistake again.
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:25:25 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:25
westerner (suspended)
Yes. E. May called Canadians stupid. That is why the Greens are at 7%, the balance of 93% must be stupid for not supporting Liz.
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:29:57 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:29
I watched that TVO clip and I do think she said it but did not mean to call Canadians stupid. I believe she meant to refer to politicial leaders as stupid for not providing the voters with the facts on the environment as she believes.
BTW I am glad she is in the debate.
[updated Sat Sep 27 11:13:09 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 11:13
larryl
Informed. There is no doubt she said it and she was right. How else can we explain what is happening and happened before when Lyin Brian won two huge majorities. It is fortunately only temporary but this time might see our country taken over by the U.S. or the North American Union as it will be known. If you want to back get some of the money you lost invest in silver which will be used to back the new Amero. It's a lot cheaper than buying gold and Mexico has tons of the stuff.
[updated Sat Sep 27 11:53:57 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 11:53
Why do you think it is reasonable to call a former Prime Minister a liar? Most reasonable people regard personal attacks as petty and small minded. Are you discounting the voters who vote for Conservatives or liberals platforms as incapable of making sound decisions?
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:39:14 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 12:39
larryl
Informed . I simply use the name he has become best known by. If you think I was the first to name our illustrious P.M. I can not take credit for that. Even you know Lyn Brian denied having any dealings with Karl but admitted under oath that he received $225,000 cash in envelopes from his former pal. That in my books gives me and any other Canadian the right to use that term. He is also a thief since he has not returned $2,000,000 he received by lying in his lawsuit against the people of Canada. How much more evidence do you need to prove he is ,was and always will be the biggest liar we have ever seen. The people have made many sound decisions over the years but we are about to make the worst one in our history if we give Pinnochio a majority. I know I should not insult Pinnochio but I had a lapse in memory.
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:50:51 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 12:50
I watch the John Daly/Corbet Report and enjoy satire as I am sure you do but your central themes of character assasination, and demeaning people who are elected is small minded. I agree with several points you make about accountability and honesty of our public figures but I will not simply insult people for not supporting or agreeing with their ideas or platform. It does not help or move the debate any further. I imagine if my identity was posted I could stand behind my comments without explanation to my family and friends can you?
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:35:41 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:35
larryl
Informed. Larry Laforge Bramton Ontario. I have no fear of any one knowing who I am or what I believe. Your turn.
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:01:50 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 15:01
I have not made any statements that can be viewed as libel or slander but more importantly dont want any love letters.
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:20:01 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 15:20
larryl
informed . In order for something to be libelous or slanderous they have to be untrue which I doubt anyone can claim about anything I have said on this site. The former P.M. has had many things said about him far more inflammatory than any of my comments and and only sued once and we now know he owes the people of Canada $2,00,000 for that one . Any statements I have made that you can quote that are libelous or slanderous ?
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:56:50 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 15:56
westerner (suspended)
Who is Brain? Not sure when he was elected.
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:31:11 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:31
larryl
More sarcasm or just not very knowledgeable ? I know most Conservatives don't like to be reminded of those 9 years of corruption but he was one Harper's advisors so I certainly haven't forgotten him.
[updated Sat Sep 20 23:06:51 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 23:06
westerner (suspended)
Not very knowledgeable is the situation. Who is Brain?
[updated Sat Sep 20 23:12:47 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 23:12
larryl
Try mixing up Brain a little and you will come up with Brian as in Martin B. Mulroney . I imagine you already knew that but not even you wants to mention his name in mixed company. I don't blame you since bringing him up would only remind us of his pal Karl Heinz and the cash payments in hotel rooms.
[updated Sat Sep 20 23:20:23 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 23:20
westerner (suspended)
Oh! You meant Brian all along. Why didn't you say so? $300,000--not bad for a few days work.
[updated Sat Sep 20 23:28:50 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 23:28
larryl
Lyin Brain only admitted to $225,000 and Karl said he did absolutely nothing for it , not even a few days work. I guess it's okay for Conservatives to take illegal payments as long as it's not too much. Of course if we had let the Mulroney/Schreiber investigation finish it's work we might have found out how much Mulroney and Moores actually got for the Airbus deal.
[updated Sat Sep 20 23:41:29 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 23:41
westerner (suspended)
Theres that BRain again.
$225,000/ $300,000 --pocket change!! compared to the Liberal sponsorship scandal. Millions still missing and the RCMP are still trying to untangle the financial wrong doings. Millions of taxpayers money going to finance the Liberal election campaign. The RCMP are getting ready to lay more criminal charges although I doubt taxpayers will recover any of the missing millions.
[updated Sat Sep 20 23:51:03 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 23:51
larryl
Does that mean you think it's okay to steal just a little .? Of course Lyin Brain got another 2 million by suing us. Now his pal Pinnochio is costing us 300 million for an election nobody wanted just to cover up more CPC corruption .I guess since they only cost us that much doesn't really mean they stole it from us. You should really bring up the 500 million Mulroney and Chretien cost us with the helicopter deal. How much do you think their share of that mess was? Mulroney had already announced his plans to resign when he signed that deal and Chretien cancelled the agreement knowing it would cost us millions . The complicity of the two parties wasn't limited to the bank act.
[updated Sun Sep 21 00:14:33 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 00:14
westerner (suspended)
Yes indeed, Chretien cost us millions with the helicopter cancellation and the country still hasn't been able to recover from it.
When are you going to go public with the trillion dollar Bank Act scandal? It will make front page news!
[updated Sun Sep 21 14:33:22 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 14:33
User1
They also cancelled the Avro Arrow
[updated Sun Sep 21 18:11:05 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 18:11
westerner (suspended)
Anyone out there old enough to remember the Avro Arrow? Was that a car?
[updated Sun Sep 21 19:07:18 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 19:07
It is becoming clearer to me you don't wish to have a honest debate but rather name call and cast aspersions. It is a shame you can apply your energy in a more productive manner.
Good luck to you.
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:41:22 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 12:41
larryl
Informed . I would be happy to have a debate but since you feel you are informed I doubt i could ever change your opinions even with irrefutable proof. Pick a topic and I will guarantee no name calling if you are open to being better informed.
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:55:30 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 12:55
List 3 policies of your party platform which you are strongly in favour and 3 you strongly disagree with and do same for the party you would least likely vote for.
[updated Sat Sep 27 14:37:28 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 14:37
larryl
Informed. Don't have a party and can't tell you what the CPC platform is since it is kept secret. The three things I know about that I don't like are 1.Privatizing health care and any other government service that has the potential of turning a profit. I base that on what the Conservatives did in Ontario. Toll roads and Ontario hydro are the best examples.The 800 million dollar hospital a half mile from my house that Clement turned over to the private sector is probably an even better one. 2. Their get tough on crime is simply electioneering at its best.A hot button issue that the mass media has blown out of proportion . Do you really believe in a blanket law that covers all 14 year olds regardless of circumstances with regard to their situation . I know some really immature kids who are manipulated by hard core criminals but Harper wants to treat them all the same. Laws exist giving judges the discretion to charge and sentence individuals but they rarely use it. 3. The environment is a topic the CPC would ignore if the public had not made it important. John Baird as environment minister is the same as letting the fox guard the hen house. Those are the first three that came to mind but accountability, competence and truthfulness that Harper ran on but abandoned after being elected are important factors to consider.
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:21:07 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 15:21
Healthcare is a Provincial Responsibility.
Do you believe we have a 1 Tier Public Healthcare system across Canada?
I understand you are quite angry with Harris and his priorities and his tax cuts. Do you why he claims he had to make those cuts? Our last few Premiers from Rae-Harris, McGuinty all claim Ontario is short changed by the Federal Government on Transfer of Provincial payments. Check out fairshare.com I think might be .ca.
During the huge surpluses under the Liberal Majority several programs were cut. Do you agree spending was cut in several areas to generate huge surpluses?
Our military, infrastructure, National housing and transfers to provinces were some of these areas. Do you agree?
I have read on the Government of Canada website Tories have agreed to some of the ideas but funds wont arrive until 2011-2014.
I can address Justice at another time but I agree the Traditional Media have failed us by not being tougher with all the politicians in reporting the facts vs the spin.
The Environment I will address later too I dont think any either governing party has done a satisfactory job.
[updated Sat Sep 27 15:42:59 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 15:42
larryl
Informed . We can agree on some things. Since we live in a confederation the have provinces contribute more . Ontario has been the engine of Canada for a long time and I have never heard anyone but a politician complain about that. I believe that since Alberta has become a have province it is their turn to shoulder the burden . The westerners I know and the ones on this site blame easterners for what they perceive as the injustice they suffered . That probably goes back to the depression when a Conservative government stopped them from travelling eastward to find jobs that did not exist. Another tangent . Sorry. Back to your post. The massive cuts made by the Liberals were not to produce surpluses . We had to stop uncontrolled spending to stop the debt from getting any bigger. Harris could have reduced spending when he received less money from the feds but chose to reduce revenues from corporations with tax cuts. The mess our health care system is in is mostly due to Harris cuts in services which led to waiting lists . Rae had to do what he did because of a recession but Harris took over and only made things worse.As for our military the first cuts were made by Mulroney and you can verify that on the National Post website. It suffered steady decline until 1995.
Jonathan Kay on the funding of Canada's military, 1970-2007
Posted: December 14, 2007, 5:35 PM by Jonathan Kay
Jonathan Kay
Military spending was increased until 1987 and started going back up in 1995 when the deficit had been eliminated. Surely we can believe the National Post or will that be dismissed as more left leaning MSM.
[updated Sat Sep 27 16:45:13 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 16:45
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
If it was a brain it wasn't a tory............if it was a nasty western based dirty trick guy it was a tory.
[updated Sat Sep 20 23:27:26 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 23:27
westerner (suspended)
New Ipsos Reid poll in the Ottawa Citizen: Conservatives 40%; Liberals 27%
[updated Sat Sep 20 23:31:15 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 23:31
fortescue
interesting that this election seems focused on the enviroment, and Brian is well recognized as the most enviromental Prime Minister ever. Is that the legacy that Harper would like to continue?? I believe it is. The credit will come years latter as with Mulrony
[updated Sun Sep 21 00:50:28 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 00:50
westerner (suspended)
Yes. Brian Mulroney was honoured not long ago as the Greenest Prime Minister ever. At the dinner Elizabeth May was extolling his virtues.
[updated Sun Sep 21 19:11:23 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 19:11
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
of course he was honoured at a function put on by the "cash only in umarked bils association"
[updated Sun Sep 21 21:49:40 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 21:49
westerner (suspended)
An association which included Elizabeth May!
[updated Sun Sep 21 23:19:17 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 23:19
You are letting your personal bias and poor manners give you a sense of bravado. If you feel so confident in your claim, state it as a public record and provide your name so you can be contacted by lawyers who feel you will need proof. Dont hide behind the internet indentity.
[updated Sat Sep 27 12:44:02 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 12:44
User1
if the results were the opposite it would be scary
[updated Sun Sep 21 18:11:44 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 18:11
westerner (suspended)
Yes, very very, scary. Professor Dion with his far left hidden agenda should make all Canadians very nervous.
[updated Sun Sep 21 19:13:05 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 19:13
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
remember the old lib slogan...run on the left manage on the right......just the opposite of Harper's paln.
[updated Sun Sep 21 21:50:35 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 21:50
westerner (suspended)
Dion has no idea what it is to manage on the right. You are delusional.
[updated Sun Sep 21 23:18:04 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 23:18
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Delusional is an NDP trait ask layton about LSD.
[updated Mon Sep 22 05:23:26 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 05:23
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
fewer of them are dumb to day of course, right westerner!!! They are getting educated and will make the real dumb guys wear the dunce cap pretty soon. Layton and Harper will both be fighting for that hat.
[updated Sun Sep 21 21:48:12 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 21:48
westerner (suspended)
You are right on. The dunce cap in now owned by Stevie Dion.
[updated Sun Sep 21 23:21:15 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 23:21
User1
The question should be posted in a more neutral way. For example
Ask the question - Which Prime Minister cares about my job protection
Which Prime minister cares more about the Immediate Climate Challenges
Which Prime Minsiter is best suited to withstand the collapse of the American Financial System
Which Prime Minister will make cultural development a priority accross the country
[updated Sun Sep 21 18:37:17 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 18:37
The Voters number one issue is the economy. How does asking them about "cultural development" enter in the top 50 or families must have?
Nik Nanos questions are open ended.
Yours are geared towards specific parties/platform that have polled well in the consumer protection/Environment/Culture.
Do you think that is a neutral or unbiased series of priorities in your poll?
[updated Sat Sep 27 10:51:10 -0400 2008]
27 Sep 10:51
Hope
To use the old cliché, "The only poll that counts is on election day." And before that day, I hope that every Canadian who intends to vote reads a most interesting article in today's Globe and Mail titled, "A CARBON-TAX-FUELLED RECESSION: NOTHING BUT HOT AIR? by Steven Chase. Please Google the title and have a read and pass it on. Following are some excerpts:
*******************************************************************************************************
{But University of Calgary tax economist Jack Mintz, whose expertise the Harper government has previously praised, says he can't see the Liberal plan leading to a recession.
Of the $15.4-billion that a $40-per-tonne carbon tax would collect, according to the Liberal plan, roughly $10.5-billion would be funnelled to individuals and corporations in tax cuts. These are breaks that would surely spur economic growth, Dr. Mintz says. (Another $3.7-billion would be redistributed as support to low- and middle-income families.)
In fact, Simon Fraser University economist Marc Jaccard, an energy expert, says he doubts that either the Liberal proposal or the Conservative plan, entitled Turning the Page, would inflict significant economic pain on Canada.
He said colleagues in the international climate change policy community who construct economic models of various measures don't foresee a negative impact from a tax at the level the Liberals propose.
As well, Dr. Jaccard says his preliminary analysis shows that the Liberal plan would outperform the Conservative one when it comes to achieving emissions reductions. He said that's because there's a number of structural flaws that would render the Tory plan ineffective.}
*******************************************************************************************************
So Harper's hysterical proclamation that the Liberal Party's "Green Shift" plan would wreak havoc on the economy, blah, blah, blah, is nothing but hot air, laying to rest the question in the headline! I think he owes voters and the Liberal Party an apology for being economical with the facts.
The article should be reprinted on the "front page" of the Globe and Mail and in every major and small-town newspaper across the country. It sure changed my voting preference.
[updated Sat Sep 20 18:05:10 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 18:05
32 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Will The liberals collapse completely? Are the NDP going to emerge as the oppositon?
This is the question political pundits are starting to kick around. What we've seen so far is that barring some sort of complete disaster for the cpc, they will form either a very strong minority or weak majority. Because of the split in the parliament, and because of the fact the libs are going to be cash strapped - that's basically the same thing.
Several recent reports show that the 'liberal brand' holds less water with people than it used to - in other words, fewer people are willing to vote liberal 'just because'.
If dion does poorly in the debates - we'll see the liberals slide further. At that point - the liberals and the ndp are both going to tell people that they should give up the other party and vote for theirs to 'stop harper'. Neither effort will be successful - the cpc is going to win period.
The quesiton is - will the liberal support collapse and move to the ndp, leaving the libs in third place or will it rally and keep them at about 70 seats in second place? Is this the election that will see the NDP neck and neck for official opposition status?
[updated Sat Sep 20 21:58:18 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 21:58
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MRM
The hilights from a poll in today's Ottawa Citizen:
Conservatives well ahead in new poll
Reuters
Published: Saturday, September 20, 2008
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Conservatives have a large lead over the opposition Liberals and stand a good chance of winning a Parliamentary majority in an October 14 federal election, according to a poll released on Saturday.
The Ipsos Reid survey for CanWest News Service put the Conservatives on 40 percent public support, up two percentage points from a poll by the same company a week ago. The Liberals dropped two points to 27 percent while the left-leaning New Democrats climbed two points to 15 percent.
The Ipsos Reid survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted between Sept 16 and 18 and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:42:21 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:42
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MRM
It will be interesting to see the Liberal and NDP leaders explain to Canadians just exactly how they are going to pay for all of their promises. That is supposed to happen this week or at least before the debates. Dion will be especially interesting since the Green Shift is supposed to be revenue neutral, he will reduce taxes, not run deficit and still has more big money policy announcements coming up. Here is a quick breakdown from a NP article where a more detailed list is found.
Somebody barricade the mint: Liberal promises top $80 billion. Yes, you read that right
Posted: September 19, 2008, 4:06 PM by Kelly McParland
"Stéphane Dion promised farmers $1.2 billion over four years Friday, taking the Liberals' campaign pledges past the $80 billion mark -- $80.183 billion to be precise, according to calculations by Canwest News Service. The Conservatives, cheapskates that they are, have pledged less than $2 billion, while the NDP is at $16.5 billion. It's not many political parties that can make the NDP look prudent."
[updated Sat Sep 20 22:54:47 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 22:54
33 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
The Liberals are staying very close in all the hot ridings so this election is still very much up in the air. all the Libs need is a awing of about four points and the surge they will get from the ABH voters very close in could take them over the top
[updated Sat Sep 20 23:35:24 -0400 2008]
20 Sep 23:35
25 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Something Light
I am forever amused by uniforms, such as soldiers wearing camoflauge for desk jobs at home, the boys in blue, priests in skirts and men’s suits. Why do we HAVE to wear this stuff?
Because of rules set by the organizations for which we work. Each with their own culture but most simply trying to get along. By doting to a higher god, style.
Style means we have to wear ridiculous shoes, glasses, dresses, underwear and on and on. It dictates our home, car and other purchases. For a lot of people, being “in style” is a very important item.
It is to conform.
“That’s the way it is” doesn’t work for me. But I have to ad that I like California swim trunks. I was never comfortable in a Speedo.
[updated Sun Sep 21 05:12:01 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 05:12
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.