Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their national lead with 38% support, followed by the Liberals at 29%, the NDP at 18%, and the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party tied at 7%. In the battleground province of Ontario, the Tories are statistically tied with the Liberals, and similarly, in Quebec with the Bloc. While Stephen Harper remains the leader in Canada’s choice for Prime Minister, his rating on the leadership index has slipped to 94 points. Jack Layton is up on the index to 51 points, replacing Stéphane Dion who drops to third at 36 points. Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe follow, with 14 and 13 points respectively.
Tomorrow, Nik Nanos, President of Nanos Research and Official CPAC Pollster, joins Goldhawk Live host Dale Goldhawk at 7 pm ET / 4 pm PT to discuss the latest findings. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 18, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=986, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 38% (-1)
- Liberal Party 29% (+1)
- NDP 18% (NC)
- BQ 7% (NC)
- Green Party 7% (NC)
- Undecided 18% (+1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 37% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 17% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 15% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 3% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 18% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 94 (-9)
- Jack Layton 51 (+9)
- Stephane Dion 36 (-17)
- Elizabeth May 14 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 13 (+4)
What do you think?
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard