CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 29, NDP 18, BQ 7, GP 7 (ending September 19)

Things dont seem to be changing much. Slight moves up slight moves down. Its as if people have made up ther mind and are not moving. Will this campaign make a difference?

[updated Sat Sep 20 14:09:05 EDT 2008]

To use the old cliché, "The only poll that counts is on election day." And before that day, I hope that every Canadian who intends to vote reads a most interesting article in today's Globe and Mail titled, "A CARBON-TAX-FUELLED RECESSION: NOTHING BUT HOT AIR? by Steven Chase. Please Google the title and have a read and pass it on. Following are some excerpts:
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{But University of Calgary tax economist Jack Mintz, whose expertise the Harper government has previously praised, says he can't see the Liberal plan leading to a recession.
Of the $15.4-billion that a $40-per-tonne carbon tax would collect, according to the Liberal plan, roughly $10.5-billion would be funnelled to individuals and corporations in tax cuts. These are breaks that would surely spur economic growth, Dr. Mintz says. (Another $3.7-billion would be redistributed as support to low- and middle-income families.)
In fact, Simon Fraser University economist Marc Jaccard, an energy expert, says he doubts that either the Liberal proposal or the Conservative plan, entitled Turning the Page, would inflict significant economic pain on Canada.
He said colleagues in the international climate change policy community who construct economic models of various measures don't foresee a negative impact from a tax at the level the Liberals propose.
As well, Dr. Jaccard says his preliminary analysis shows that the Liberal plan would outperform the Conservative one when it comes to achieving emissions reductions. He said that's because there's a number of structural flaws that would render the Tory plan ineffective.}
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So Harper's hysterical proclamation that the Liberal Party's "Green Shift" plan would wreak havoc on the economy, blah, blah, blah, is nothing but hot air, laying to rest the question in the headline! I think he owes voters and the Liberal Party an apology for being economical with the facts.

The article should be reprinted on the "front page" of the Globe and Mail and in every major and small-town newspaper across the country. It sure changed my voting preference.

[updated Sat Sep 20 18:05:10 EDT 2008]

Will The liberals collapse completely? Are the NDP going to emerge as the oppositon?

This is the question political pundits are starting to kick around. What we've seen so far is that barring some sort of complete disaster for the cpc, they will form either a very strong minority or weak majority. Because of the split in the parliament, and because of the fact the libs are going to be cash strapped - that's basically the same thing.

Several recent reports show that the 'liberal brand' holds less water with people than it used to - in other words, fewer people are willing to vote liberal 'just because'.

If dion does poorly in the debates - we'll see the liberals slide further. At that point - the liberals and the ndp are both going to tell people that they should give up the other party and vote for theirs to 'stop harper'. Neither effort will be successful - the cpc is going to win period.

The quesiton is - will the liberal support collapse and move to the ndp, leaving the libs in third place or will it rally and keep them at about 70 seats in second place? Is this the election that will see the NDP neck and neck for official opposition status?

[updated Sat Sep 20 21:58:18 EDT 2008]

The hilights from a poll in today's Ottawa Citizen:

Conservatives well ahead in new poll
Reuters
Published: Saturday, September 20, 2008
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Conservatives have a large lead over the opposition Liberals and stand a good chance of winning a Parliamentary majority in an October 14 federal election, according to a poll released on Saturday.
The Ipsos Reid survey for CanWest News Service put the Conservatives on 40 percent public support, up two percentage points from a poll by the same company a week ago. The Liberals dropped two points to 27 percent while the left-leaning New Democrats climbed two points to 15 percent.
The Ipsos Reid survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted between Sept 16 and 18 and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

[updated Sat Sep 20 22:42:21 EDT 2008]

It will be interesting to see the Liberal and NDP leaders explain to Canadians just exactly how they are going to pay for all of their promises. That is supposed to happen this week or at least before the debates. Dion will be especially interesting since the Green Shift is supposed to be revenue neutral, he will reduce taxes, not run deficit and still has more big money policy announcements coming up. Here is a quick breakdown from a NP article where a more detailed list is found.

Somebody barricade the mint: Liberal promises top $80 billion. Yes, you read that right
Posted: September 19, 2008, 4:06 PM by Kelly McParland

"Stéphane Dion promised farmers $1.2 billion over four years Friday, taking the Liberals' campaign pledges past the $80 billion mark -- $80.183 billion to be precise, according to calculations by Canwest News Service. The Conservatives, cheapskates that they are, have pledged less than $2 billion, while the NDP is at $16.5 billion. It's not many political parties that can make the NDP look prudent."

[updated Sat Sep 20 22:54:47 EDT 2008]

The Liberals are staying very close in all the hot ridings so this election is still very much up in the air. all the Libs need is a awing of about four points and the surge they will get from the ABH voters very close in could take them over the top

[updated Sat Sep 20 23:35:24 EDT 2008]

Something Light

I am forever amused by uniforms, such as soldiers wearing camoflauge for desk jobs at home, the boys in blue, priests in skirts and men’s suits. Why do we HAVE to wear this stuff?

Because of rules set by the organizations for which we work. Each with their own culture but most simply trying to get along. By doting to a higher god, style.

Style means we have to wear ridiculous shoes, glasses, dresses, underwear and on and on. It dictates our home, car and other purchases. For a lot of people, being “in style” is a very important item.

It is to conform.

“That’s the way it is” doesn’t work for me. But I have to ad that I like California swim trunks. I was never comfortable in a Speedo.

[updated Sun Sep 21 05:12:01 EDT 2008]