CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 28, NDP 18, BQ 7, GP 7 (ending September 18)

Interesting. Liberal numbers fall and Dion's numbers climb! The Liberals just can't win.

[updated Fri Sep 19 14:07:17 EDT 2008]

Back to normal.

So Dion is back to 53% on the Leadership Index Score - the same score that he was at 3 days ago, before he let Bob Rae speak on his behalf. He should think twice before he lets that happen again.

I'm surprised to see the Liberals drop to 28% as a party today. All of the different polling companies seem to be converging towards one another, now. Even the companies that generally publish numbers that are out of whack are coming in line.

[updated Fri Sep 19 14:08:46 EDT 2008]

I would love to hear from any person who actually believes that the Federal or Provincial governments are to blame for all the manufacturing job losses over the last 4 years!!! Any person with work experience or basic street smarts knows that the outdated old 1920's style unions are out of touch and out of date. There are industrialized countries who have a universal style government run Unions. They have all the goodies that our unions have except that when they see a bit of financial termoil, they dont force strikes and force companies to pay 30+dollars an hour. Like they do in the US and Canada, that is why you will never see governments even mention a universal gov run union. To afraid to lose a vote and watch unions ruin our manufacturing sector due to their greed and dishonest old mafia style tactics thay are chasing our jobs overseas for cheap labor. Wake up and smell the pink slips Canada. Unions have been dinosaurs for the last decade or longer.

[updated Fri Sep 19 14:17:29 EDT 2008]

Did everyone see Dion's Green shift comment today? What was up with that?

Not a major platform plank? Most of us saw it as the single most major plank in the Liberal platform. It thought they'd try to change the channel, but I didn't think they'd go this far.

Looks like they're going to switch their focus to the new infrastructure promise and try to get endorsements from the mayors.

[updated Fri Sep 19 14:27:43 EDT 2008]

Even with a 11 point lead a majority is not assured. The Conservatives could still end up with a minority government; not that there is anything wrong with that!

[updated Fri Sep 19 15:42:53 EDT 2008]

Seat Projections for today.

I've decided to try some software that is designed to project likely seat outcomes based on polling numbers. It's an improved version of something that's proven relatively accurate in the past. I'll post the projections daily as the numbers come out using nik's numbers.

First the numbers are applied nationally - then adjustments are made for known variations within specific regions.

Based on nik's numbers today - Seat projections using algorithm based software suggests using those national numbers that the results of an election today would be

CPC - 150 seats

Libs - 90

Bloc - 35

ndp - 32

ind - 1

Adjusting for some of the known regional factors, we see

cpc - 154

Libs - 80

bloc 35

Ndp 38

Indy - 1

Based on nik's numbers, the CPC is right on the edge of majority territory. A few points either way will make all the difference. IF the libs drop any more, we could see them collapse before the end of this election.

The NDP has a little ways to go before they threaten the libs for opposition. But they're on the rise, so we'll see what happens.

The greens don't have enough to get a seat yet - but are brushing close in a few bc ridings.

[updated Fri Sep 19 15:45:41 EDT 2008]

....the Liberals Green Shaft (Shift) and Stephane Dion are bringing down the Liberal numbers...

it's time for the liberals to reshift their focus again.

[updated Fri Sep 19 17:10:43 EDT 2008]

Nik

I'm wondering if you could comment on the inverse relationship between Dion's numbers and the Liberal numbers? Dion is at his highest level of the campaign, not to mention your pre-writ poll.

Are Dion's numbers a forerunner, do you think it will translate, or is it just a statistical blip?

[updated Fri Sep 19 20:09:27 EDT 2008]

The Ritz affair has legs. The medical profession and PIPS have publicly castigated Mr. Harper for his government's casual handling of the listeriosis file and concerning their ineptitude regarding food safety generally. The Liberals' new ad is right on.

How many of these daily gaffes can Harper suffer before the mainstream media and the Canadian public catch on?

p.s. I posted this on Wednesday's blogsite by mistake. I'm in a debatin' mood!

[updated Fri Sep 19 22:24:00 EDT 2008]

The impression we have been given of Harper as a strong decisive leader was completely fabricated by the backroom boys. We are now being fed another line of B.S. showing Pinnochio as this warm and friendly family guy. Should we believe what has been presented to us for the last two years or the new sweater wearing softy we see in the slick T.V. ads. If we found out who is holding the strings controlling the puppet , we might make a more informed choice. The results of a slick advertising campaign are showing up in the polls but will the undecided fall for the same hook ,line and sinker? Most of the right wants to discuss the polling results but stay away from the issues because even they don't know what Harper has planned.Decisions made in the polling booth will determine this election if people remain unsure of their choice until then Three more weeks of debating the poll questions and results seems rather pointless but it seems that what we are stuck with. Does anyone have opinions on the loomng global financial crisis and what our government should be doing about it if anything? How about the privatization of our health care. Sorry . I forgot the words of that illustrious Conservative P.M. " This is no time to be discussing important issues".

[updated Sat Sep 20 10:05:13 EDT 2008]

I am so pleasantly suprised to see Mr Dion's leadersgip numbers on the rise - I am convinced that the more people see of Mr Dion , the more they listen to him the more they will see he is undoubtedly the most honest politician to come along for a very long time - he will make a wonderful Prime Minister and will bring back respect and integtiry to the office.

[updated Sat Sep 20 11:17:14 EDT 2008]

Breaking news: Conservatives can calm down now.

The press is now reporting this all arose because Dion used the words "very important" instead of "central", but people have now figured out that "very important" is .... well ... actually ... pretty important, after all.

So the revised headline is "Liberal leader opens a more aggressive sales pitch on the Green Shift".

As Dion says, "A Liberal government will help Canada make a green shift and Tim Horton's will keep selling doughnuts."

With that sorted out, perhaps people should start asking Harper to reveal the cost to taxpayers of his own carbon pricing scheme. He has stated that he will only reveal that after the election. Lots of goodies after the election. Harper also says we can learn about the validity of the Cadman tape after the election. And the legality of the in and out scheme. Oh, and whether we have a deficit or not.

[updated Sat Sep 20 12:56:52 EDT 2008]