Post your questions for Nik…
Tonight, Nik will be on PrimeTime Politics with Peter Van Dusen at 8 pm ET / 5 pm PT for his weekly “Nik on the Numbers” feature. If you have any questions regarding our tracking or polling in general, you can post them on the blog, Nik will be answering your questions live on the air.
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll indicate a 9-point lead for the Conservatives who stand nationally at 39%, followed by the Liberals at 30%, the NDP at 18%, the Bloc Québecois at 7%, and the Green Party at 6%. CPAC-Nanos’ first set of regional breakdown numbers show the Conservatives as the frontrunners in Quebec (excluding Montreal), Northern and Eastern Ontario, the Prairies and Western Canada, while the Liberals lead in Toronto and the GTA, and remain statistically tied with the Conservatives in the rest of Ontario and the Atlantic provinces.
Every Thursday, Nanos will release weekly regional numbers to see how party support fares at the provincial and regional levels (based on a five day track). The nine regions are Atlantic Canada, Montreal, the Rest of Quebec, Toronto and the GTA, South Western Ontario, Northern and Eastern Ontarion, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 16, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=988, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 39% (+1)
- Liberal Party 30% (-1)
- NDP 18% (+1)
- BQ 7% (NC)
- Green Party 6% (-1)
- Undecided 18% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 38% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (+1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 3% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
- None of them 6% (-1)
- Unsure 18% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 105 (-3)
- Jack Layton 46 (-5)
- Stephane Dion 37 (+5)
- Elizabeth May 15 (+1)
- Gilles Duceppe 17 (+4)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Conservatives gain in popular support and Liberals lose popular support. Conserv... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 18 Sep 14:24
Conservatives outgun Bloc in Quebec poll - National Post OTTAWA — The Bloc Queb... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 18 Sep 17:14
Nik, if possible, I'd like to see some analysis on where the party support is co... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 18 Sep 15:19
Where has the coverage of the "lack" of the "Green Shift" plan from Stephane Dio... more
MrEd (British Columbia) 18 Sep 20:36
elf, I did not mock what you said, I merely suggested you romanticized about b... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 18 Sep 21:05
I don't know that 'we' are. (here perhaps, but it is a polling site after all ) ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 18 Sep 21:07
Comments
westerner (suspended)
Conservatives gain in popular support and Liberals lose popular support. Conservatives 39% and Liberals 30%. Very good trend entering majority territory.
Best Prime Minister: Harper 38%, Dion 14%. Are the Liberal back room boys considering dumping Dion? Rumors abound.
[updated Thu Sep 18 14:24:19 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 14:24
53 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
Nik, if possible, I'd like to see some analysis on where the party support is coming from where it is significantly different from support for the leader. For example:
- The CPC is @ 39%, and Harper is @ 38% for best Prime Minister
- The NDP is @ 18%, and Layton is @ 18% for best Prime Minister
- The Liberal party is @ 30%, and Dion is @ 14% for best Prime Minister.
So logically, the people that think Harper and Layton would be best Prime Minister are the same people who plan to vote Conservative or NDP, respectively. However, the Liberal party is running well ahead of Dion. Where does the additional Liberal support come from? Is the Liberal brand that strong that so many people will still vote that way despite their dislike for Dion?
Do the undecideds/unsures on the best Prime Minister question choose the Liberals on the party question?
Do people who think Layton would be the best Prime Minister still choose the Liberals?
I think a matrix would be interesting, with best Prime Minister on one axis, and party choice on the other.
[updated Thu Sep 18 15:19:42 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 15:19
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
My fearless prediction is a minority government for the Conservatives. Anyone else willing to go on record as to the final result? Anyone that is but Parnel.
[updated Thu Sep 18 15:51:13 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 15:51
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Taylor Cutforth
As more people become aware of all the facts and information regarding each party and individual candidates, the more we will see these trends continue.
Despite this, there have been several "hardcore" Liberal supporters who are still insisting that they are the most viable option against the Conservatives. It's been clear, especially over the course of the last two years in the HOC and committees that this is hardly the case.
And the the Liberals are not only unfit to govern but unfit to claim opposition status of any kind. What constructive opposition did they offer in the house?
That is the question I pose to Nik and all CPAC viewers.
By my observations, they only contributed more partisan rhetoric and slander that they would perpetuate in the first place. Even now they are still trying to insult our intelligence by the use things like "NAFTAgate", "in and out", "Mulroney Schreiber", "hidden agenda" campaign and the supposed broken promise of a "fixed election date".
All of these have been proven to be frivolous claims and remain unsubstantiated.
We are all smarter than that. I don't expect the "Liberals" to change in this regard but at least the other parties do have such a capacity to smarten up and focus on working together rather then for seats or votes or more power than they deserve.
The CPC has made a lot of improvements over the years since their new formation back in 2003. I expect with will continue to do so while working hard in the best interests of all canadians from parties.... yes, even the (scandalous) "Liberals".
[updated Thu Sep 18 16:59:34 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 16:59
40 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Conservatives outgun Bloc in Quebec poll - National Post
OTTAWA — The Bloc Quebecois is struggling ahead of an Oct. 14 federal election and the party is now in second place behind the ruling Conservatives, according to a poll released Thursday.
The Leger Marketing survey for the Journal de Montreal put support for the Conservatives in French-speaking Quebec at 34%, up from 30% two weeks ago.
Support for the Bloc, which holds most of Quebec’s 75 seats, rose by two points to 32%.
The survey suggests that the Conservatives are well placed to make major gains in Quebec, which could put them on a road to a Parliamentary majority. The party now has 11 of Quebec’s 75 seats.
In the January 2006 election, the Bloc took 42% of the Quebec vote and the Conservatives only 25%.
The official opposition Liberals, who lost power nationally in 2006 over a kickback scandal in Quebec, were down three points in the survey at 20%.
There is increasing disillusionment among separatists with the Bloc, which was created 18 years ago as the federal wing of the Quebec independence movement.
In recent years it has changed its focus from the fight for independence to representing Quebec’s interests, a development that angered hard-line separatists. Last week a leading member of the secessionist camp complained the Bloc had lost its way.
The Leger Marketing survey of 1,001 adults was conducted between Sept 12 and 16 and is considered to be accurate within 3.4%, 19 times out of 20.
Now - that is interesting. Considering the polling size - (about 1000 ) just in quebec alone, the poll has a very small margin of error compared to nik's numbers.
The poll suggests strongly that while many people are a little undecided, they are leaning very strongly to the CPC.
Those numbers would give a cpc majority. Lets hope it holds and firms up.
[updated Thu Sep 18 17:14:51 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 17:14
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Craig
Hi Nik, I really enjoy your studies every night.
My question regards how the phone in polling is done. What happens if you have a "no comment" or a hang up?
Does that go against the None/unsure column or do you skip that person?
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:19:10 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:19
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Steve V
Hi Nik:
I'm curious if you see Ontario numbers returning to the pre-writ period, where the Liberals had a substantial lead. I've noticed a trend the last few days of your poll, would you agree?
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:27:32 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:27
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
patrick_boucher
nik,
how important do you think are the debates on polls and peoples opinion.
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:27:59 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:27
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daveinottawa
Hi, Nik, why do some of the other polling firms have the Liberals lower, and if you could pick the second best polling firm for Canadian politics, what would it be?
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:29:40 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:29
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Clairance
How might the momentum of the Obama-McCain race stateside impact the Canadian election, and do you think Harper's choice to run the election ahead of its US counterpart factored this as a consideration?
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:32:40 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:32
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patrick_boucher
hey nik...how important are the leaders debates during the election...do they have a true and long lasting effect on polls. I'm a stéphane dion fan...and im a little worried on his abilities to express himself in english...but then again...monsieur chrétien did rather well on that front...anyways..just a thought.
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:34:20 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:34
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MrEd
Where has the coverage of the "lack" of the "Green Shift" plan from Stephane Dions presentations on the campaign trail today been... it's been dropped from the Liberal message yet the media has ignored this fact... and when does the media plan to question the costing of this plan?
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:36:29 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:36
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MrEd
In the news today it was pointed out if the Canadian economy drops into recession the EI program will not be able to support Canadians for a sustained period of time... Does the media intend to ignore the fact that the Liberals plundered the funds under Martin and Cretien of which Dion was then a member and active part of the party to help pay down the national debit?
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:39:45 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:39
14 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
theodditor
Hi Nik,
Could you explain how the sample is selected/called. Because my home phone is VOIP, it is never listed in any telephone listings, so how do people get called - picked out of a phone book, dialed at random, etc.
Thanks,
Scott (Toronto)
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:40:26 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:40
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
scooter
Hi Nik:
For the past few days, the Liberals have been emphasizing the Liberal Team, rolling out Bob Rae, Michael Ignatieff, Ken Dryden and others...How is this change in strategy affecting the Liberal numbers? Would you advise the Liberals to continue to use their Liberal team to lead them to victory?
Thanks,
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:42:39 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:42
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Karen
I am responding to your earlier comments about Harper and the Conservatives' gaffes as showing a lack of discipline and a need for more control.
To the contrary, I suggest the problem is a *lack* of leadership. A leader is able to communicate and get buy-in to a vision, values, and ways of acting in an organization. Apparently, Steven Harper is not a leader that can create consensus or inspire others he works with to work toward a common vision and values.
This is also reflected in his "having to" dissolve Parliament because it was "dysfunctional". I suggest if an organization is truly dysfunctional, that directly reflects a lack of leadership. More "control" just hides his lack of leadership rather than being true leadership.
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:46:11 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:46
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larryl
karen. You can't possibly see things that clearly.Get ready for the attack from the right. Pinnochio might be a leader but he has no one to follow him so any talents he might have seem to be wasted. Of course when you are a one man show why would you need anyone else.
[updated Thu Sep 18 21:34:20 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 21:34
Support for the Conservatives in key Quebec battleground ridings is taking a hit, as virtually all other parties focus their attacks on the Tories in that province, a new poll shows.
“[The Conservatives] are just getting pummelled from all sides,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll. “The air wars are killing them.”
Unlike in the rest of the country, a particularly fierce battle has been brewing on Quebec's airwaves, with opposition parties launching myriad TV ads. The NDP, for example, has run ads comparing Conservative Leader Stephen Harper to U.S. President George W. Bush, and saying a Conservative government would be a slave to the Alberta oil patch. While the ads are rarely seen outside Quebec, they are frequently aired in the province, where at least four parties have a serious shot at winning closely contested ridings.
At the start of the election campaign, the Tories registered 32-per-cent support in Quebec battleground ridings, the poll shows, with the Liberals at 24 per cent, the NDP at 11 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 28 per cent. Today, the Conservatives are at 26 per cent, just three points ahead of the Liberals, whose support in the province has remained fairly level. Both the NDP and the Bloc have gained support at the Conservatives' expense, jumping to 13 and 31 per cent respectively.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper delivers a speech to supporters during a rally on Wednesday in Saguenay, Que.
Enlarge Image
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper delivers a speech to supporters during a rally on Wednesday in Saguenay, Que. (Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press)
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The Globe and Mail
There is more bad news for the Conservatives in Ontario, where, for the first time in this election campaign, the poll shows the Liberals have pulled even with the Tories in the province's battleground ridings.
At the start of the election campaign, the Conservatives had more than a 10-point lead on the Liberals in those ridings, registering 41-per-cent support to the Liberals' 29 per cent. Today, both parties sit at 35 per cent, below their 2006 numbers. The NDP registers 18-per-cent support. The only party that has made a significant gain in those ridings compared to 2006 is the Green Party, which has doubled its numbers to 11 per cent.
The poll, conducted Sept. 14 to 16 for CTV and The Globe and Mail, tracks 45 of the closest ridings in B.C., Ontario and Quebec. All the ridings saw especially tight races either in the 2006 election or recent by-elections.
Of the 45 ridings, 20 are in Ontario, 15 are in Quebec and 10 are in B.C. The Liberals won 17 of them, the Conservatives 16, the Bloc eight and the NDP four. Surveys are conducted daily, with three-day running tallies comprising a poll of 1,325 Canadians.
Part of the reason for the Tories' disappearing lead in Ontario battleground ridings likely has to do with concerns over the state of the economy, which is of far more concern than the environment among voters there.
In Ontario battlegrounds, the economy is far and away the more important of the two issues, with some 62 per cent of respondents saying it is the top issue, compared to just 29 per cent picking the environment. The discrepancy is similar in B.C., where 58 per cent pick the economy, compared to 31 per cent for the environment. That gap is likely bad news for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, who has made the environment the cornerstone of his campaign so far.
[updated Thu Sep 18 21:48:14 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 21:48
westerner (suspended)
Peter Donolo is the former Communications Director for John Cretien. Strategic Counsel and associated commentary has a strong Liberal bias.
[updated Thu Sep 18 22:19:15 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 22:19
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
westerner more unsubstaniated BS from you
[updated Fri Sep 19 00:00:11 -0400 2008]
19 Sep 00:00
westerner (suspended)
TPQ: These are FACTS --FACTS.
[updated Fri Sep 19 09:38:05 -0400 2008]
19 Sep 09:38
User1
Alberta oil is no good for Canada. It does not give Canadians any benefits at the pump, it is dirty oil that harms the environment and it pits provinces against provinces, it retards the growth of natural resources in other provinces, it props up the Canadian dollar which hurts imports. At the rate of the Canadian dollar we will become a distribution center of chinese manufactured goods and our skills and products will be stalled at the border. No wonder 120,000 jobs were created this year. Ofcourse at $8.00 an hour and $100.00 per month per kid all is fine. Oh my god!! when you do the math 120,000 jobs at $8.00 and hour is probably equivalent to 40,000 jobs at $30.00 an hour. The govt still collects their taxes so it is a win for the govt and a loss for the people. Do the math
[updated Mon Sep 22 21:50:41 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 21:50
Foxer
That's a very funny way of looking at leadership :)
Rarely does a leader exercise complete control over his people, nor is that really what leadership is. No matter how strong a leader you are, your people are going to occasionally do something they shouldn't. The mark of a leader is more how he deals with it. There has never been a gov't where someone in the party didn't do something stupid. I'd refer you to garth's comments about the 'seperatists' a short while ago that caused dion so much embarrasment - or Layton's girl going nuts over a cpc'er who was looking at vacation photo's.
People screw up.
Intersting tho you talk about 'buy in' and the like - how do you feel about dion considering his party was still bickering over the green plan right into the election? It would seem if your theory is true, dion is a pretty horrible leader.
[updated Fri Sep 19 04:34:14 -0400 2008]
19 Sep 04:34
Karen
Foxer: My comment was in response to Nik's comments last night about these gaffes -- he was suggesting, as I understood him, that Harper was being "lax" and needed to show more "leadership" by re-establishing the iron grip he had in the last election. My reaction was just that an "iron grip" has little to do with real leadership, not that people won't ever mess up. So we agree on that ;-)
Whether or not I agree with his policies, Obama has awakened a sense of purpose and hope in his supporters that I do think is a quality of leadership. And when his folks mess up, it is easier to believe his apologies and the efforts of his team to "fix it" than in Harper's camp, IMHO.
I can't say I have seen any stellar leaders emerge in the Canadian elections so far, as you note....which is part of what makes this election so uncertain, perhaps?
OTOH, Dion has brought in the team to support his messages -- Harper apparently has no team, just do-fors. Not trying to appear to be the only important player is also a manifestation of a better leader, in the literature at least. So I see less hope for Harper ;-)
[updated Fri Sep 19 11:19:57 -0400 2008]
19 Sep 11:19
Foxer
Ahh - i see. Yes, we do agree that simply having an 'iron fist' is not really leadership in the normal sense of the word.
I would agree that obama is a good example of what i would call the first of two qualities that define leadership in a general sense. He is, as you say, good at creating his vision, expressing his vision and more importantly in motivating people to believe in his vision. When he speaks - you want to believe. It is easy to become emotionally invested in where he is going and to want to do something about it.
That is the first hallmark quality of a leader.
The second is the ability to execute. Can he turn his vision into a workable, practical reality efficiently by one means or another? Of course - with obama we don't know that yet, we can only guess. But - should he get the chance, and should he be able to deliver on his detailed plans, and should they achieve the results he promised, then he will likely go down in history as a great leader.
To look at the three leaders we have in that light, we can see the following:
Harper does present a clear image of where he wants to go, but he's not inspiring. You 'believe' in his vision in much the same way you believe environment canada's reported rainfall figures for last year - accurate perhaps, but boring. He rarely inspires people to action. You don't get that fire in your belly listening to him. So - negative points there.
He DOES execute tho. HOOO does he execute :) He had one of the weakest minorities in history and ran it for one of the longest minorities, and got a lot of his agenda thru despite fierce opposition from his opponents. THAT was impressive, and i don't care which party you like you gotta admit this is a man who gets things done.
So - plusses there.
Overall - mediocre leader - gets stuff done, has some good ideas, but really doesn't inspire people and a leader really should.
Dion - well, i know you probably like the guy but i would argue this is a fair assessment.
For vision - he has a VERY difficult time expressing any kind of vision. A vision is a clear complete picture - he has more of a collection of ideas that appeal to some, but no real vision.Nobody can figure out the carbon tax - not even his own people. Nobody can see where this massive spending he's proposing will lead us to economic prosperity or a 'better canada'. It just doesn't come together. And he is not inspirational. In fact charles adler refered to one of his speeches by saying 'he reminds me of the kind of professer we had in university that could really really inspire the kids to do drugs in school'. :) Boring, hard to follow, and way too much rhetoric and not enough meat. You watch rae beside him and it's night and day different.
As for execution, well his time as opposition is uninspiring in that regard. He missed 43 votes because harper could push him around like a hockey puck. That is not a man who can get things done.
So - really not a very good leader and that more than the conservative ads is what people are picking up on.
Layton - well, he does inspire a little. When he tries to. He spends way too much of his time just slagging opponents and it's really not inspirational. Hey - slag a way IN MODERATION jack, but remember to talk about your vision more.
On getting things done - well he's got some achievements, and of course this is the first election he's really presented the NDP as someone who CAN really get things done. So - jury's still out, but i'll give him a pass for now.
Mediocre leader - can be inspirational but often isn't, and has acheived some things but is still untested in that department to a degree.
So yeah - no stellar leaders. Two mediocre's and a bit of a dud. Not our best showing ever. :)
As to 'teams' - here's a simple truth. If a leader chooses to get a few of his people out and that helps, that's great. If he NEEDS to ... that is NOT leadership, that is a sign of a lack of leadership. Great leaders assemble teams to make them stronger - not to hide their own weakness.
Our greatest leaders have never had to showcase their teams in an election. They've been easily recognized as great leaders on their own, and we trust them to assemble good teams to help out.
In this respect - layton and harper are both looking more 'leaderly' than dion, who kind of needed to bring someone in to rescue his poor performance. Leaders lead. Fish swim, birds fly, writers write and leaders lead. The 'team' thing is not a good sign for dion, it's a sign of weakness.
If dion wants to lead - he's got to step up his game and show leadership qualities on his own. He's got the passion - he needs the vision and he needs to simplify how he speaks to deliver a very clear and believable message.
[updated Fri Sep 19 11:47:17 -0400 2008]
19 Sep 11:47
User1
Anytime you begin your term in office with an Accountabilty Office it is a signal that you are guilty until proven innocent.
I think Canada is heading towards dictatorship, this is a given with a majority govt of the CPC. What true north strong and free, be careful the flag will be changing as well as the Anthem
[updated Mon Sep 22 21:56:16 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 21:56
Peggy
THE LIBERALS WOULDN'T STAY IN THEIR SEATS! THEY KEPT RUNNING OUT OF THE HOUSE.THAT IS DISFUNCTIONAL AND COWARDLY AND LEADERLESS!
[updated Sun Sep 21 15:05:16 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 15:05
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Peggy dysfunctional is making every vote in the house a non confidence one and higing immigraation bills inside a budget bill........its not the libs its the tough times are times party who are dysfunctonal.
[updated Sun Sep 21 15:12:09 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 15:12
Peggy
Whether it is a non-confidence or not they are paid to represent the people who elected them. Are you saying this is proper for elected members to run like rats when their backs are to the wall?
[updated Sun Sep 21 15:39:56 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 15:39
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I say its unethical to make every vote a non confidence one and not be willing to discuss amendments in house committees especially when they had a minority of the seats.
Democracy is supposed to give voice to the people and Harper was not willing to do that for which he will now probably pay the price.
[updated Sun Sep 21 15:54:07 -0400 2008]
21 Sep 15:54
Foxer
I don't know if there were any bills that were put up without an opportunity to make any amendments or changes?
As i recall, virtually all of them had gone thru that process - which one are you thinking of specifically?
oh - and it's not unethical at all - if the opposition feels it's inappropriate, they go to the polls and canadians get to decide. There's nothing unethical about it in a minority gov't.
[updated Mon Sep 22 22:12:40 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 22:12
User1
A strong leader is one who when provoked he exercises restrain. A strong leader is one who do not engage in mudslinging. And when a leader is using deragotory remarks for years after hea has won an election it tells me that he is not sure of his leadership qualities. Do you know how much crim is committed due to provocation. Our current leader is nothing but a juvenile delinquent
[updated Mon Sep 22 22:00:06 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 22:00
Foxer
So you didn't like chretien or martin then? They did all that stuff.
[updated Mon Sep 22 22:13:16 -0400 2008]
22 Sep 22:13
Peggy
What has this got to do with my question??????????
[updated Tue Sep 23 08:50:36 -0400 2008]
23 Sep 08:50
User1
Parliament was not fun for Harper, he has no friends there, it was not fun going to work. He refuses to work with the opposition and his ministers are all muzzled. A majority govt will give him absolute power and he will not need the opposition nor his ministers to influence his decisions.
For someone who refused to go the China to the olympics and who immediately cancelled aid to Zimbabwe, I am confused.
[updated Sun Sep 28 13:43:55 -0400 2008]
28 Sep 13:43
Mr_Michael
Hi Nik,
In your polling results you have combined a total percentage for Unsure and None. It would be interesting to break Unsure and None into separate percentages.
Example: I would like to see what percentage of people polled believe that NO candidate is trustworthy. The way you are presenting the results now you have no clear idea if people believe that no candidate is trustworthy.
Michael
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:46:50 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:46
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Chris, Ontario
Did the numbers fluctuate when Bob Rae joined Dions campaign. I personally stood on the stage with Stephen Harper with a lot of young people. If you watch the liberals it is all their MP's. Is Stephane Dion's last resort Bob Rae.
Conservative Majority I think.
Oh yeah
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:49:33 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:49
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
jaymcd
Hi Nik.
I am wondering what your data can tell us about voters second preference. If the Conservatives lose votes over Ritz, Puffins, and other blunders, then where are those voters likely to go? What if the Bloc erodes some more?
Just wondering which parties have the most potential to 'grow' their vote through the rest of the election, and which are more solid.
Cheers, Jay.
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:51:24 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:51
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
If Stephen Harper does not fire Michael Ritz, what can you speculate Nik, what the conservative numbers fluctuate?
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:54:39 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:54
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
paul.martin.w
Nik, I’m sure that you would agree that there is a difference between popular support if the election were held today and the composition of the House of Commons if the election were held today. Is there a reasonably accurate correlation between the two?
Paul
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:55:02 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:55
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Liberals did not send a single ship into Arctic waters between 1993 and 2002.
Liberals promised to scrap GST for 13 years, but never did.
Liberal gutted Military Spending to limit patrol of Arctic
Liberals sat and watched Canada's greenhouse gas emmisons go up by 27% percent.
Liberal environment ministers and top policy advisor all say that the Kyoto Accord was never on the Liberal Leader and Liberals mind.
Why are people so brainwashed into voting liberal even with these astonishing facts?
Conservatives all the way.
Thanks Nik!
[updated Thu Sep 18 20:59:09 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 20:59
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Millcroft
What would the national figures look like if Alberta numbers were not included.
[updated Thu Sep 18 21:16:58 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 21:16
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In addition to building on their success in the previous election, it looks like the Conservatives have taken a page out of the Liberals playbook as well, in order to get themselves past the magic 40% number.
Firstly, they have continued with their "policy-a-day" type campaign that garnered them so much success in the 2006 election, albeit with a few less policies. Secondly, they have followed the example of the Liberals by making it a key focus to demonize the opponent's leader. However, they appear to be having much more success than the Liberals ever did (either because of their efforts, or more plausibly because of Dion's shortcomings) as it appears that even the NDP can boast of a more popular leader.
A very strong Conservative supporter myself, I do not appreciate the attacks on Stephan Dion. I understand that they are quite truthful (the bulk of the advertising is right out of the Liberal's own mouths) but I find it to be low and "unsportsmanlike" conduct. What is even more frustrating though is that this appears to be the only type of strategy that works on Canadian voters and allows a party to enter majority territory. It's what worked for Chretien against Manning and Day, and it helped Martin hold of Harper the first time round.
However, what I find the most ironic and "karma-like" is the fact that this sort of character assassination campaigning was Liberal bread-and-butter for so many years and now it's being used against them. And not only that, but at the same time that they're complaining about these attacks, they're still reaching into the bag for the old "hidden agenda" trick and using that line again!
Plus you really have to chuckle when the Liberal's--the same party that twice called elections barely three years into a mandate, for the sole purpose of catching the newly elected conservative leaders "with their pants down"--you have to laugh when that same party accuses the Conservatives of calling a "snap" election (which as it turns out was right at the end of the longest running minority government in half a century). If that ain't the burnt up and corroded pot calling the the tarnished kettle black, I don't know what is.
[updated Thu Sep 18 23:34:15 -0400 2008]
18 Sep 23:34
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peacenik
I have a few basic questions regarding polls and how to interpret them:
1.- Do polling organisations quantify the "value" of incumbency? What I mean is, when someone is asked who would be best suited to be Prime Minister, how many people will answer the name of the incumbent because since the incumbent has the job, they seem to be a fair bet for the future?
2.- Concerning the undecided: it seems to me that an undecided count indicates people who are undecided about the contenders rather than the incumbent. To be undecided about the incumbent is de facto to say that one would tend to be more likely to favour someone other than the incumbent, since to be unsure about an incumbent to me seems a less favourable judgement than to be unsure about a contender - it is a judgement about how the job is being done. So, does this not indicate that it is more difficult for M Harper's numbers to grow?
3.- How do the "undecided" numbers correlate with the people who do not vote. We know that the participation rate includes an "non-participation" rate how do the numbers of "undecided" before an election compare to the "did not vote" after an election.
4.- In a parliamentary system is the popularity of the leader always indicative of who is "leading" in a campaign.
I would be very grateful if you could give some insight about these points.
Thank you
[updated Fri Sep 19 02:47:42 -0400 2008]
19 Sep 02:47
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The Ritz affair has legs. The medical profession and PIPS have publicly castigated Mr. Harper for his government's casual handling of the listeriosis file and concerning their ineptitude regarding food safety generally. The Liberals' new ad is right on.
How many of these daily gaffes can Harper suffer before the mainstream media and the Canadian public catch on?
[updated Fri Sep 19 21:38:35 -0400 2008]
19 Sep 21:38
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