CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 7, GP 6 (ending September 17)

Conservatives gain in popular support and Liberals lose popular support. Conservatives 39% and Liberals 30%. Very good trend entering majority territory.
Best Prime Minister: Harper 38%, Dion 14%. Are the Liberal back room boys considering dumping Dion? Rumors abound.

[updated Thu Sep 18 14:24:19 -0400 2008]

Nik, if possible, I'd like to see some analysis on where the party support is coming from where it is significantly different from support for the leader. For example:
- The CPC is @ 39%, and Harper is @ 38% for best Prime Minister
- The NDP is @ 18%, and Layton is @ 18% for best Prime Minister
- The Liberal party is @ 30%, and Dion is @ 14% for best Prime Minister.

So logically, the people that think Harper and Layton would be best Prime Minister are the same people who plan to vote Conservative or NDP, respectively. However, the Liberal party is running well ahead of Dion. Where does the additional Liberal support come from? Is the Liberal brand that strong that so many people will still vote that way despite their dislike for Dion?

Do the undecideds/unsures on the best Prime Minister question choose the Liberals on the party question?

Do people who think Layton would be the best Prime Minister still choose the Liberals?

I think a matrix would be interesting, with best Prime Minister on one axis, and party choice on the other.

[updated Thu Sep 18 15:19:42 -0400 2008]

My fearless prediction is a minority government for the Conservatives. Anyone else willing to go on record as to the final result? Anyone that is but Parnel.

[updated Thu Sep 18 15:51:13 -0400 2008]

As more people become aware of all the facts and information regarding each party and individual candidates, the more we will see these trends continue.

Despite this, there have been several "hardcore" Liberal supporters who are still insisting that they are the most viable option against the Conservatives. It's been clear, especially over the course of the last two years in the HOC and committees that this is hardly the case.

And the the Liberals are not only unfit to govern but unfit to claim opposition status of any kind. What constructive opposition did they offer in the house?

That is the question I pose to Nik and all CPAC viewers.

By my observations, they only contributed more partisan rhetoric and slander that they would perpetuate in the first place. Even now they are still trying to insult our intelligence by the use things like "NAFTAgate", "in and out", "Mulroney Schreiber", "hidden agenda" campaign and the supposed broken promise of a "fixed election date".

All of these have been proven to be frivolous claims and remain unsubstantiated.
We are all smarter than that. I don't expect the "Liberals" to change in this regard but at least the other parties do have such a capacity to smarten up and focus on working together rather then for seats or votes or more power than they deserve.

The CPC has made a lot of improvements over the years since their new formation back in 2003. I expect with will continue to do so while working hard in the best interests of all canadians from parties.... yes, even the (scandalous) "Liberals".

[updated Thu Sep 18 16:59:34 -0400 2008]

Conservatives outgun Bloc in Quebec poll - National Post

OTTAWA — The Bloc Quebecois is struggling ahead of an Oct. 14 federal election and the party is now in second place behind the ruling Conservatives, according to a poll released Thursday.

The Leger Marketing survey for the Journal de Montreal put support for the Conservatives in French-speaking Quebec at 34%, up from 30% two weeks ago.

Support for the Bloc, which holds most of Quebec’s 75 seats, rose by two points to 32%.

The survey suggests that the Conservatives are well placed to make major gains in Quebec, which could put them on a road to a Parliamentary majority. The party now has 11 of Quebec’s 75 seats.

In the January 2006 election, the Bloc took 42% of the Quebec vote and the Conservatives only 25%.

The official opposition Liberals, who lost power nationally in 2006 over a kickback scandal in Quebec, were down three points in the survey at 20%.

There is increasing disillusionment among separatists with the Bloc, which was created 18 years ago as the federal wing of the Quebec independence movement.

In recent years it has changed its focus from the fight for independence to representing Quebec’s interests, a development that angered hard-line separatists. Last week a leading member of the secessionist camp complained the Bloc had lost its way.

The Leger Marketing survey of 1,001 adults was conducted between Sept 12 and 16 and is considered to be accurate within 3.4%, 19 times out of 20.

Now - that is interesting. Considering the polling size - (about 1000 ) just in quebec alone, the poll has a very small margin of error compared to nik's numbers.

The poll suggests strongly that while many people are a little undecided, they are leaning very strongly to the CPC.

Those numbers would give a cpc majority. Lets hope it holds and firms up.

[updated Thu Sep 18 17:14:51 -0400 2008]

Hi Nik, I really enjoy your studies every night.

My question regards how the phone in polling is done. What happens if you have a "no comment" or a hang up?

Does that go against the None/unsure column or do you skip that person?

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:19:10 -0400 2008]

Hi Nik:

I'm curious if you see Ontario numbers returning to the pre-writ period, where the Liberals had a substantial lead. I've noticed a trend the last few days of your poll, would you agree?

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:27:32 -0400 2008]

nik,
how important do you think are the debates on polls and peoples opinion.

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:27:59 -0400 2008]

Hi, Nik, why do some of the other polling firms have the Liberals lower, and if you could pick the second best polling firm for Canadian politics, what would it be?

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:29:40 -0400 2008]

How might the momentum of the Obama-McCain race stateside impact the Canadian election, and do you think Harper's choice to run the election ahead of its US counterpart factored this as a consideration?

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:32:40 -0400 2008]

hey nik...how important are the leaders debates during the election...do they have a true and long lasting effect on polls. I'm a stéphane dion fan...and im a little worried on his abilities to express himself in english...but then again...monsieur chrétien did rather well on that front...anyways..just a thought.

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:34:20 -0400 2008]

Where has the coverage of the "lack" of the "Green Shift" plan from Stephane Dions presentations on the campaign trail today been... it's been dropped from the Liberal message yet the media has ignored this fact... and when does the media plan to question the costing of this plan?

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:36:29 -0400 2008]

In the news today it was pointed out if the Canadian economy drops into recession the EI program will not be able to support Canadians for a sustained period of time... Does the media intend to ignore the fact that the Liberals plundered the funds under Martin and Cretien of which Dion was then a member and active part of the party to help pay down the national debit?

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:39:45 -0400 2008]

Hi Nik,

Could you explain how the sample is selected/called. Because my home phone is VOIP, it is never listed in any telephone listings, so how do people get called - picked out of a phone book, dialed at random, etc.

Thanks,
Scott (Toronto)

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:40:26 -0400 2008]

Hi Nik:

For the past few days, the Liberals have been emphasizing the Liberal Team, rolling out Bob Rae, Michael Ignatieff, Ken Dryden and others...How is this change in strategy affecting the Liberal numbers? Would you advise the Liberals to continue to use their Liberal team to lead them to victory?

Thanks,

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:42:39 -0400 2008]

I am responding to your earlier comments about Harper and the Conservatives' gaffes as showing a lack of discipline and a need for more control.

To the contrary, I suggest the problem is a *lack* of leadership. A leader is able to communicate and get buy-in to a vision, values, and ways of acting in an organization. Apparently, Steven Harper is not a leader that can create consensus or inspire others he works with to work toward a common vision and values.

This is also reflected in his "having to" dissolve Parliament because it was "dysfunctional". I suggest if an organization is truly dysfunctional, that directly reflects a lack of leadership. More "control" just hides his lack of leadership rather than being true leadership.

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:46:11 -0400 2008]

Hi Nik,

In your polling results you have combined a total percentage for Unsure and None. It would be interesting to break Unsure and None into separate percentages.

Example: I would like to see what percentage of people polled believe that NO candidate is trustworthy. The way you are presenting the results now you have no clear idea if people believe that no candidate is trustworthy.

Michael

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:46:50 -0400 2008]

Chris, Ontario
Did the numbers fluctuate when Bob Rae joined Dions campaign. I personally stood on the stage with Stephen Harper with a lot of young people. If you watch the liberals it is all their MP's. Is Stephane Dion's last resort Bob Rae.

Conservative Majority I think.

Oh yeah

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:49:33 -0400 2008]

Hi Nik.

I am wondering what your data can tell us about voters second preference. If the Conservatives lose votes over Ritz, Puffins, and other blunders, then where are those voters likely to go? What if the Bloc erodes some more?

Just wondering which parties have the most potential to 'grow' their vote through the rest of the election, and which are more solid.

Cheers, Jay.

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:51:24 -0400 2008]

If Stephen Harper does not fire Michael Ritz, what can you speculate Nik, what the conservative numbers fluctuate?

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:54:39 -0400 2008]

Nik, I’m sure that you would agree that there is a difference between popular support if the election were held today and the composition of the House of Commons if the election were held today. Is there a reasonably accurate correlation between the two?

Paul

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:55:02 -0400 2008]

Liberals did not send a single ship into Arctic waters between 1993 and 2002.
Liberals promised to scrap GST for 13 years, but never did.
Liberal gutted Military Spending to limit patrol of Arctic
Liberals sat and watched Canada's greenhouse gas emmisons go up by 27% percent.
Liberal environment ministers and top policy advisor all say that the Kyoto Accord was never on the Liberal Leader and Liberals mind.

Why are people so brainwashed into voting liberal even with these astonishing facts?

Conservatives all the way.

Thanks Nik!

[updated Thu Sep 18 20:59:09 -0400 2008]

What would the national figures look like if Alberta numbers were not included.

[updated Thu Sep 18 21:16:58 -0400 2008]

In addition to building on their success in the previous election, it looks like the Conservatives have taken a page out of the Liberals playbook as well, in order to get themselves past the magic 40% number.

Firstly, they have continued with their "policy-a-day" type campaign that garnered them so much success in the 2006 election, albeit with a few less policies. Secondly, they have followed the example of the Liberals by making it a key focus to demonize the opponent's leader. However, they appear to be having much more success than the Liberals ever did (either because of their efforts, or more plausibly because of Dion's shortcomings) as it appears that even the NDP can boast of a more popular leader.

A very strong Conservative supporter myself, I do not appreciate the attacks on Stephan Dion. I understand that they are quite truthful (the bulk of the advertising is right out of the Liberal's own mouths) but I find it to be low and "unsportsmanlike" conduct. What is even more frustrating though is that this appears to be the only type of strategy that works on Canadian voters and allows a party to enter majority territory. It's what worked for Chretien against Manning and Day, and it helped Martin hold of Harper the first time round.

However, what I find the most ironic and "karma-like" is the fact that this sort of character assassination campaigning was Liberal bread-and-butter for so many years and now it's being used against them. And not only that, but at the same time that they're complaining about these attacks, they're still reaching into the bag for the old "hidden agenda" trick and using that line again!

Plus you really have to chuckle when the Liberal's--the same party that twice called elections barely three years into a mandate, for the sole purpose of catching the newly elected conservative leaders "with their pants down"--you have to laugh when that same party accuses the Conservatives of calling a "snap" election (which as it turns out was right at the end of the longest running minority government in half a century). If that ain't the burnt up and corroded pot calling the the tarnished kettle black, I don't know what is.

[updated Thu Sep 18 23:34:15 -0400 2008]

I have a few basic questions regarding polls and how to interpret them:

1.- Do polling organisations quantify the "value" of incumbency? What I mean is, when someone is asked who would be best suited to be Prime Minister, how many people will answer the name of the incumbent because since the incumbent has the job, they seem to be a fair bet for the future?

2.- Concerning the undecided: it seems to me that an undecided count indicates people who are undecided about the contenders rather than the incumbent. To be undecided about the incumbent is de facto to say that one would tend to be more likely to favour someone other than the incumbent, since to be unsure about an incumbent to me seems a less favourable judgement than to be unsure about a contender - it is a judgement about how the job is being done. So, does this not indicate that it is more difficult for M Harper's numbers to grow?

3.- How do the "undecided" numbers correlate with the people who do not vote. We know that the participation rate includes an "non-participation" rate how do the numbers of "undecided" before an election compare to the "did not vote" after an election.

4.- In a parliamentary system is the popularity of the leader always indicative of who is "leading" in a campaign.

I would be very grateful if you could give some insight about these points.
Thank you

[updated Fri Sep 19 02:47:42 -0400 2008]

The Ritz affair has legs. The medical profession and PIPS have publicly castigated Mr. Harper for his government's casual handling of the listeriosis file and concerning their ineptitude regarding food safety generally. The Liberals' new ad is right on.

How many of these daily gaffes can Harper suffer before the mainstream media and the Canadian public catch on?

[updated Fri Sep 19 21:38:35 -0400 2008]