CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 31, NDP 17, GP 7, BQ 7 (ending September 16)

As noted the Tories have slipped a fair bit in Ontario(33%) and Atlantic Caanda(31%) and the Libs are moving up In Ontario(40%) and holding their own in quebec(24%) which I call building a base.

I'm not sure I fully understand the difference in overall %'s just yet as the Libs are showing healthy signs of moving up.

As predicted the Cons have stabilized since the initial flurry of pre election call attack ads. Lets hope the Libs can start their move up which I see signs of.

[updated Wed Sep 17 14:11:30 -0400 2008]

As I suggested - the parties have plateau'd for now. The little bumps we see are within the margin of error.

The 'first round' is over, and the fight is on for the second round. Round one definately went to the CPC, who is doing well nationally and stands to pick up several seats. After a promising start, the ndp has not made enough gains to really take off yet, and the libs are basically holding in their core areas.

But it is interesting that dion's leadership score continues to fall. When the next 'movement' happens, the libs could slide in the face of that.

We probably won't see any significant change till late in the week or early next week. People are just watching and waiting till they have enough info to decide it's time to make up their minds.

[updated Wed Sep 17 14:13:55 -0400 2008]

Interesting ekos analysis as to who's bleeding to where:

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/retention-rates-%E2%80%93-a-deeper-analysis/

Again - as expected the libs are bleeding the most voters this time out (not surprising) and the CPC the fewest. But where that support is going is a little more of a surprise.

Dion will have to stop that bleed and start wooing voters back if he expects not to collapse by the end.

[updated Wed Sep 17 14:41:07 -0400 2008]

I don't know why you asked about leadership. I assume those who want their representative tell them how Canada should be governed; that is, dinosaurs are still with us. I guess their are some who don't say "look we are the leaders, you do what we tell you."
Another think I've heard several times; voters saying to politicians "if I vote for you what will you do for me?"
I have never asked a politician what he would do for ME. I have never asked a politician to do something for me personally. I only ask that they do something for the country as a whole, not for an individual.
I left home and started work as a 17 year old. Since then I've known that I could do for myself what need to be done. I had no personal need for politicians. I have looked after myself and my family. And I will continue to do so as long as I have the physical and mental strength to do so.
what I want my PM to do and all other politicians is to work to make Canada a better place to live in and to create the situation so those who come after us have an easier time and in a better country.
I know how that can be done and I want my politicians to listen to me and do it. (To hell with their leadership)
I blame the people for things not being as they should be. these thing can best be done through politics. There it is incumbent to be interested and involved in politics. An be politically educated and critical of those policies they are not aim in that direction.
Sitting back and only focusing on ones own situation and not holding politicians to the fire create the great problems we have.
Not demanding politicians to regulate the business and corporate to the betterment of all the people creates the situation the US is in today and we will be too.
The CEO's are doing their job that is to create profits. The politicians are not do theirs and that's because the people don't force them to.
We have no one to blame but ourselves.

[updated Wed Sep 17 14:55:26 -0400 2008]

Another day with no change in the numbers should tell us the campaign is having little effect on the people. Two things will cause people to make a choice but some will not make it until they walk into the voting booth. First the debates will be significant in choosing even if people don't watch them since they will be influenced by the media who will pass judgement on who won. If people respect opinions of the pundits they will be affected by those who do analyze the performance of the leaders. The second factor will be how much they are afraid of a Harper majority. The fear factor will cause many undecided to vote strategically. With the undecided staying above 15 % until election day it will be virtually impossible to predict the results . Any polls done before the debates will probably change drastically the day after so we might save are comments on the polls until they mean something. Since leadership seems to be an important factor , has it occurred to anybody that if there is no one behind, you being the best leader means absolutely nothing. It should be obvious that we need to pick a government not just a leader.

[updated Wed Sep 17 15:56:50 -0400 2008]

A New Ball Game

Nik is the closest to reality among all pollsters so it is likely that another Harper minority stares us in the face. I can live with that.

A Harper majority? I'd head south. Way south.

[updated Wed Sep 17 17:27:44 -0400 2008]

In the last election, the Leadership Index was a great leading indicator for overall support. This is concerning for Dion. That said, I'd need to see this hold for a few days before getting too worked up about it.

[updated Wed Sep 17 18:22:15 -0400 2008]

breaking news......Gerry Ritz the AG minister had to make a public apology about a sur he made agains his l\iberal counterpart. He sid it was an awful thing to say and had to speak to Harepr about it

The NDP lost their sunshine coast candidate today after a film was made public showing him on various hard drugs.

The Liberals had only good things happen today

[updated Wed Sep 17 22:10:45 -0400 2008]

MORE BREAKING NEWS FOR THE LIARS TO ABSORB:(FROM THE STRATEGIC COUNSEL)
At the start of the election campaign, the Tories registered 32-per-cent support in Quebec battleground ridings, the poll shows, with the Liberals at 24 per cent, the NDP at 11 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 28 per cent. Today, the Conservatives are at 26 per cent, just three points ahead of the Liberals, whose support in the province has remained fairly level. Both the NDP and the Bloc have gained support at the Conservatives' expense, jumping to 13 and 31 per cent respectively.

There is more bad news for the Conservatives in Ontario, where, for the first time in this election campaign, the poll shows the Liberals have pulled even with the Tories in the province's battleground ridings"
...................................
Considering Niks poll today as being possibly more accurate I would say Harper is in more trouble than his mutt and jeff friends are saying.

[updated Wed Sep 17 23:20:40 -0400 2008]

More breaking news on tory Bully tactics within their own party:

Tory dissenters 'idiots, turds'
Glen McGregor, The Ottawa Citizen
Published: Tuesday, September 16, 2008

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/decisioncanada/story.html?id=060d55a6-71be-4426-9188-f67987e472f9

OTTAWA -- Workers on the campaign of a Conservative MP who declined to participate in the in-and-out advertising scheme in the 2006 election were denounced as "idiots" and a "bunch of turds" by senior party officials, who wanted to "put the fear of God" into them for not taking part in the contentious TV and radio purchases.

The emails obtained by the Citizen show how the campaign of MP Dave MacKenzie in the Ontario riding of Oxford expressed concern about the advertising purchases that would later come under investigation by Elections Canada.

Mr. MacKenzie's campaign manager, Bruce Richards, said in one email that the plan for the campaign to contribute $10,000 to the media buys "has caused some concern internally."

Mr. Richards is the former chief of police in Ingersoll, Ontario.

..........The article continues

[updated Thu Sep 18 06:05:39 -0400 2008]

Dion promises $70B infrastructure spending - CBC.

Wow - 70 billion dollars in new spending - on top of the billions he's already promised. No WONDER he's not willing to promise he won't run a deficit.

Can some one explain how this WON"T cause a deficit, but harper's modest spending will?

[updated Thu Sep 18 12:51:39 -0400 2008]