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CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 31, NDP 17, GP 8, BQ 6 (ending September 15)

142 comments Latest by Taylor Cutforth

Our latest CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking (completed September 15th) shows the Conservatives seven points up, nationally, over the Liberals, nationally, among decided voters (CP - 38%, Lib - 31%, NDP - 17%, GP - 8%, BQ - 6%). In Quebec, the Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals remain gripped in a three way battle for first in the province (Bloc - 26%, CP - 25% and Lib - 24%), while in both the Atlantic and Ontario the Tories and Grits are statistically tied. As we’ve seen throughout the campaign the Tories hold a solid lead over the Liberals in Western Canada (CP - 47%, Lib - 29%).

On the best PM front, Stephen Harper is out front, the choice of 36% of Canadians, followed by Jack Layton (18%) and Stephane Dion (14%). Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe (3% each) round out the top best PM scores. Notably, one quarter of Canadians responded either none - 8% or unsure - 18% on this measure.

CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Stephen Harper leading with an overall index score of 101 points, double second place Jack Layton’s score of 51 points. Stephane Dion (48 points) is tied with Layton, followed by Elizabeth May (14 points) and Gilles Duceppe at (11 points).

Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.

Methodology and Results A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,202 random interviews.

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 14, 2008.

Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)

Committed Voters - Canada (N=972, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Conservative Party 38% (+1)
  • Liberal Party 31% (NC)
  • NDP 17% (-1)
  • Green Party 8% (-1)
  • BQ 6% (NC)
  • Undecided 19% (-1)

Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Conservative leader Stephen Harper 36% (+2)
  • NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
  • Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (NC)
  • Green Party leader Elizabeth May 3% (-1)
  • Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
  • None of them 8% (-1)
  • Unsure 18% (NC)

Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: The most trustworthy leader The most competent leader The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future

[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,202, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Stephen Harper 101 (+5)
  • Jack Layton 51 (+3)
  • Stephane Dion 48 (+3)
  • Elizabeth May 4 (-4)
  • Gilles Duceppe 11 (-1)

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.

Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard

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Most Read Comments

Highest Rated Comments

Interesting to see such a large difference between this and the recently release... more

apukwa (Ontario) 16 Sep 14:26

The Tories have peaked for now as we can see and their voting intentions will go... more

TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 16 Sep 14:29

What's interesting about it is that while they get the same numbers for the CPC,... more

Foxer (British Columbia) 16 Sep 14:49

References to Nazis is inappropriate here! You are away over the top with such c... more

westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 16 Sep 16:53

Well the poll would suggest the libs bled to the ndp and green, both of whom are... more

Foxer (British Columbia) 16 Sep 18:31

Yes, that is also possible. It's also possible that the dialers are operating at... more

Foxer (British Columbia) 16 Sep 18:36

Comments

apukwa

Interesting to see such a large difference between this and the recently released "IVR poll" done by Ekos. Certainly brings into question the validity of IVR polls (rolling or not even with a large sample). Either way, it must smart to have their first poll look rogue.

What are your thoughts on using IVRs to poll people, Nik?

Hmm... I wonder if they rotate the options...

[updated Tue Sep 16 14:26:35 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 14:26

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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)

The Tories have peaked for now as we can see and their voting intentions will go down from here if the last election is any indicator. Martin dropped during the campaign and Harper rose. When Dion gets fully mobilized over the next few days or so which is his plan I think Harper will be on the defensive and the NDP support will slip along with the Greens. The libs will gain a lot of the undecideds on the left as things come more into view and I also see Dion's personal numbers starting to get more traction little by little.

The Liberal express is warming up

[updated Tue Sep 16 14:29:19 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 14:29

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westerner (suspended)

Harper is the best leader for Canada and Dion has the Green Shaft tax increase. Conservative majority is a real possibility! I would have bet on a minority Conservative Government before the campaign. Times are changing for the better.

[updated Tue Sep 16 17:15:34 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 17:15

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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)

To those who continue to believe in the fantasy of the Libs so called broken GST promise of 1993 I would suggest reading page 5 of this CDHowe Report, linked below, that is also not that complimentary of the GST as run by the current government.

http://www.cdhowe.org/pdf/Commentary_273.pdf

[updated Tue Sep 16 18:58:26 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 18:58

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Foxer

uuuuhhhh ... you DO realize this is a report discussing how to harmonize provincal and federal sales tax?

And page 5 is only critical of provincial sales taxes, and only because the author feels there's a great deal of room for tax avodance or evasion. It's not critical of the GST.

And the libs clearly broke thier word on gst - Chretien said it was just TERRIBLE, the most horrible idea, and he'd kill it. He didn't, he kept it. And now the libs are saying its the most wonderful tax there ever was.

Liberals are liars. It's just that simple. And I don't know what YOU were thinking - did you think nobody would read what you posted or somethign and just assume it was bad?

[updated Tue Sep 16 19:28:17 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 19:28

TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)

the reason I dn't normally respond to you is your overall ignorance of the facts and you proved yourself again........ther article is clear. Libs moved to replace GST with a harmonized sales tax/VAT and only some provinces accepted it which effectively left the GST in place for the other provinces.

Tory times are not only tough times they are ignorant times.

[updated Tue Sep 16 20:07:08 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 20:07

Foxer

Wow. That's what you get from that. HOoooo Kayyyy.

First off - if you tell people to focus on a specific page - your point should be on that page.

Second - they are critisizing what the provinces are doing - it says quite clearly the FEDERAL gov't has been encouraging it for some time, it's the PROVINCES that are resistant.

So saying it's a federal problem is pretty stupid. I wouldn't mind, but seeing as YOU posted the article, it makes it insanely stupid. The article argues AGAINST your point - it says how the feds want to do is is good - how the provinces are doing it is bad. And it's not the GST that's the problem, it's their various sales taxes.

Seriously - how thick do you have to be to post an article that disproves what you're trying to say? That's not just dumb, that's like "Dion dumb"!

[updated Tue Sep 16 20:32:08 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 20:32

TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)

Page 5 clearly stated the libs through the house finance committee were trying to cahnge the tax........what can't you see in that.

Tory times are not only tough times but also ignorant times. tory times are shaft the people times

[updated Tue Sep 16 20:46:45 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 20:46

Foxer

You are on glue. There is no mention of anything like that on page 5.

Here is the text from page five - pls point it out. I sure as hell can't see it.

in recent years, some provinces have expanded
their RST base to include more services, such as
insurance; British Columbia has also extended
exemptions from RST to business capital
purchases, thus cutting the effective tax rate on
capital. These attempts to improve the RST have
generally failed, however, to achieve a fair and
efficient sales tax regime. The reason is that it is
virtually impossible to develop a system of
exemptions that eliminates most RST on business
inputs without its becoming highly complex and
subject to significant monitoring costs. For the
RST to be removed on business inputs, a registered
business would have to provide an exemption registration
number to the vendor to indicate that no
tax should levied on the product.11 Given that
many products, such as motor vehicles and
computers, can be used for both consumption and
business purposes, it is problematic for governments
to monitor the awarding of exemptions
to ensure that tax is collected on consumption.
Furthermore, tax evasion could be quite significant,
as taxpayers who are exempt from
collecting tax on business sales could buy tax-free
goods and services and sell them without tax in the
underground economy.12 A VAT, under which
vendors levy the tax on all customers and registered
businesses claim refunds, provides a better
system for relieving business inputs from taxation.
The VAT is not perfect. For example, unlike the
RST, which applies only at the final stage of production
and therefore does not involve other
producers in the economy, the VAT must be
collected at every stage of production. Also, in
many countries, the VAT is levied at multiple
rates, and there are exemptions that lead to inefficiency
and unfairness (Keen and Lockwood
2007). A VAT can also be subject to tax evasion, as
when businesses do not collect tax on sales to
consumers even though they receive a credit for
VAT paid on their business inputs. Further, under
the invoice-credit refund system, businesses that
mainly sell goods and services to other businesses
have an inducement to register to collect VAT in
order to obtain refunds of tax on their inputs,
which raises compliance costs because more registrants
participate in the system than might
otherwise be required. Nonetheless, as so many
countries have discovered, the VAT is a more
efficient mechanism for collecting consumption
taxes, since vendors need not distinguish between
registered and nonregistered consumers because all
sales are taxed, and only registered businesses can
claim a refund for taxes paid on their inputs.

[updated Tue Sep 16 21:02:39 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 21:02

fortescue

Hold on here. I someone trying to incinuet that the liberals didn't promise to kill the gst that the promise was to harminize it with the provinces? Thats a bit of a stretch. Perhaps we should understand what revenue nuetral and carbon tax really mean. And while we are on the subject of Carbon tax if it is revenue nuetral, where is Dion getting all this money to spend on green home repairs, green mortgages, child care,? is this all coming from the proceeds of the carbon ttax? If it is how can spending programs such as these be considered tax reductions? i.e. is it really revenue nuetral or is it nutreal with respect to the budget? Does anyone know? I just don't think Dion is being completly open when he talks about it being tax nuetral. I think he is balancing the equation with spending programs. (sort of like Dalton did with the Health levy, used it to upgrade water systems after walkerton, that was a big stretch) Not that water systems should not have been upgraded, just refering to this as health spending)

[updated Tue Sep 16 21:17:21 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 21:17

Foxer

Forte says "I just don't think Dion is being completly open when he talks about it being tax nuetral"

I think the problem is he doesn't have the answers to give you, plain and simple.

I don't think he's worked out all the numbers, and i don't think he knows how he's going to pay for it.

He's thinking he's pulling in 15 billion in new taxes a year, and realistically that should allow for 3 or 4 billion in new spending for these projects, several billion for 'research' to companies to "develop green tech" (no promise on if they'll actually deliver anything, or what good it'll be. OR who gets to pick the companies. ) and have a few billion still for 'wealth redistribution'.

As to 'revenue neutral', it's a silly phrase. It just means he's going to spend what he collects. He obviously doesn't mean he'll give it back to the people he took it from - that would make no sense. So it just means "we'll tax you, but we promise to spend it all".

Well - that's called a 'tax and spend' agenda. But that's not a very attractive term, so he called it 'revenue neutral'. Well of course it is - ALL taxes are revenue neutral - the gov't doesn't actually turn a profit for heaven's sake! They spend ALL the tax money they get in!

[updated Tue Sep 16 22:07:09 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 22:07

TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)

he says it clearly and you have to be a tory to not understand it.

[updated Wed Sep 17 10:11:40 -0400 2008]

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17 Sep 10:11

Foxer

Oh the tories understand it just fine - he wants to tax us, then spend it. That's what tax and spend means.

Which is why he's going to lose this election.

[updated Wed Sep 17 11:32:51 -0400 2008]

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17 Sep 11:32

Richard_thumb rsharp

Anybody But Harper. Read what James Laxer has to say about the financial meltdown in the USA:

"Black Monday showed, for those who needed the lesson, that the kind of people Stephen Harper thinks are so good at running the world are not only greedy, they’re world class incompetents.

Harper and his pals, south and north of the border, believe in the wondrous power of de-regulated capitalism to make the economy soar by getting stale, old government out of the way. That is, of course, until the new financial instruments they invent, designed to turn billions of sow’s ears into silk purses, land them in big trouble. Then they scurry to government, quaking with fear, begging for the handouts their friends in office are only too happy to provide. Harper will use the financial crisis to reward his corporate friends and punish the rest of us."

Mr. Laxer is bang on.

[updated Tue Sep 16 21:41:40 -0400 2008]

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16 Sep 21:41

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