CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 31, NDP 17, GP 8, BQ 6 (ending September 15)

Our latest CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking (completed September 15th) shows the Conservatives seven points up, nationally, over the Liberals, nationally, among decided voters (CP - 38%, Lib - 31%, NDP - 17%, GP - 8%, BQ - 6%). In Quebec, the Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals remain gripped in a three way battle for first in the province (Bloc - 26%, CP - 25% and Lib - 24%), while in both the Atlantic and Ontario the Tories and Grits are statistically tied. As we’ve seen throughout the campaign the Tories hold a solid lead over the Liberals in Western Canada (CP - 47%, Lib - 29%).

On the best PM front, Stephen Harper is out front, the choice of 36% of Canadians, followed by Jack Layton (18%) and Stephane Dion (14%). Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe (3% each) round out the top best PM scores. Notably, one quarter of Canadians responded either none - 8% or unsure - 18% on this measure.

CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Stephen Harper leading with an overall index score of 101 points, double second place Jack Layton’s score of 51 points. Stephane Dion (48 points) is tied with Layton, followed by Elizabeth May (14 points) and Gilles Duceppe at (11 points).

Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.

Methodology and Results A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,202 random interviews.

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 14, 2008.

Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)

Committed Voters - Canada (N=972, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)

• Conservative Party 38% (+1)
• Liberal Party 31% (NC)
• NDP 17% (-1)
• Green Party 8% (-1)
• BQ 6% (NC)
• Undecided 19% (-1)

Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

• Conservative leader Stephen Harper 36% (+2)
• NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
• Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (NC)
• Green Party leader Elizabeth May 3% (-1)
• Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
• None of them 8% (-1)
• Unsure 18% (NC)

Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: The most trustworthy leader The most competent leader The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future

[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,202, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

• Stephen Harper 101 (+5)
• Jack Layton 51 (+3)
• Stephane Dion 48 (+3)
• Elizabeth May 4 (-4)
• Gilles Duceppe 11 (-1)

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

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