Our CPAC-Nanos tracking shows a statistical tie in Canada’s two most populous provinces for the second consecutive night. Nationally, the Conservatives lead and Harper enjoys a significant leadership advantage, however the story after week one of the campaign is the decline in support for the Bloc. With all three federalist parties gaining ground in Quebec the campaigns will be battling hard to pick up former Bloc voters.
Our most current wave of tracking (completed September 14th) shows the Conservatives hold a six point advantage over the Liberals, nationally, among decided voters (CP - 37%, Lib - 31%, NDP - 18%, GP - 9%, BQ - 6%). The Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a statistical tie in Quebec for the second consecutive night (CP and Bloc - 26% each, Lib - 23%). The spread between the Liberals and Conservatives within the Atlantic provinces is within the margin of accuracy for the research (Lib - 40%, CP- 34%). In Ontario the Tories (37%) and Grits (35%) are tied while the Tories continue to lead the Liberals by 16 points in Western Canada.
On the best PM front, one third (34%) of Canadians chose Stephen Harper as the best Prime Minister, 16 points ahead of Jack Layton (18%). Stephane Dion remains in third, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe (Best PM - Harper - 34%, Layton - 18%, Dion - 14%, May - 4%, Duceppe - 4%, None - 9% and Undecided - 18%).
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Stephen Harper out front of the other party leaders with an overnight score of 96 points compared to Jack Layton’s 48 and Stephane Dion’s 45 point scores. Elizabeth May received a score of 18 points followed by Gilles Duceppe at 12 points overall.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 13, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=961, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37% (-1)
- Liberal Party 31% (+1)
- NDP 18% (+1)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- BQ 6% (NC)
- Undecided 20% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (-2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
- None of them 9% (NC)
- Unsure 18% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 96 (-6)
- Jack Layton 48 (-5)
- Stephane Dion 45 (+3)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+4)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+2)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
As predicted the Tory move has abated and the libs are moving somewhat. The effe... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 15 Sep 14:08
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant bod... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:00
If the numbers for Quebec are anything close to accurate, this election may be a... more
Peter3 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:34
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant bod... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:00
I can't resist. Read this LPC communication: September 15, 2008 Harper's Inde... more
rsharp (Québec) 15 Sep 20:04
Yeah - and to take it further, the western provinces have all abandoned tax and ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 16 Sep 00:20
Comments
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
As predicted the Tory move has abated and the libs are moving somewhat. The effects of Harper's unethical pre election attack ads are wearing off and the libs are starting to campaign. The NDP move is also temporary I believe and they will move back to the 15/16% range.
[updated Mon Sep 15 14:08:53 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 14:08
34 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
tdot416
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant body blows that Harper is throwing at them (and also how little all of the gaff's Harper's team had last week, doesnt seem to be having much impact on the numbers). If the Liberals decide to start ramping up the negative advertising, things could get a lot closer. The Liberals could be looking total wash if Harper gets over 40%, this could send them into the political wilderness for many many years to come, why are they holding back?
Also interesting to see the fed Liberals creep back into the Quebec landscape, I think if the Liberals are able to stick around 23-25% of the vote in Quebec, they will be able to win back a few of the seats they lost in 2006 with the colapse of the Bloc vote in some of the 514 ridings (Papineau/Jeanne LeBer), Outremont, not much Conservative chances on the island of Montreal), the Conservative gains in Quebec will be able to offset the loses in NFLD and I'm thinking, maybe 2-3 in the maritimes and 4-5 in BC.
Basically, Nik's numbers are going to send us back to another minority, less Bloc, more Conservative in Quebec, which is always a good thing and a few seat trades across the country. Or I could be wrong, and the Left Wing splitting is going to allow Harper to walk into a majority with his eyes closed, sorta like the Chretien days?
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:00:15 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:00
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Peter3
If the numbers for Quebec are anything close to accurate, this election may be about to head off in directions never explored by the Canadian electorate before.
Jack Layton must be pretty pumped about what the numbers are showing. He's a long way from winning anything, but his party seems to have a real chance to make a major move in Quebec that has the potential to alter the face of national politics.
It's interesting that the three main national parties are all essentially at the same level of support they enjoyed in 2006, but that the distribution of support has apparently changed significantly.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:34:39 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:34
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
We need to start a "debate" thread. I'll go first.
Subject: The Economy
Q: Mr. Harper, you are an avowed believer in free enterprise and markets and wanted Canada to go to war against Iraq. You appear very attached to the Republican party's position on issues of deregulation, privatization, spending, taxation and their close relationship with the military/security/industrial complex.
Most Canadians can see that,"The emperor has no clothes?" Why can't you?
A. Mr. Dion is not a leader.
[updated Mon Sep 15 19:21:24 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 19:21
45 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
I can't resist. Read this LPC communication:
September 15, 2008
Harper's Index - Week One
Number of campaign events that Stephen Harper has held so far that have been open to members of the public: 0
Number of campaign events that Stéphane Dion has held so far that have been open to members of the public: 18 (including two town halls)
Number of times Jason Kenney has been seen in public since the puffin incident: 0
Total savings a Canadian family could receive from Mr. Harper's two-cent-per-litre diesel tax cut if it fully "trickles down" to consumers and is not absorbed by suppliers or transporters: $15 annually or about 25 cents per week.
Number of Conservative campaign events that used unwitting new and expectant mothers as human props: 1
Number of apologies Mr. Harper has had to issue so far for gaffes by his staff: 2
Number of female party leaders Mr. Harper has tried to exclude from the leader's debate: 1
Number of times the RCMP has been used to physically shield Mr. Harper from questions: 1 (2 if you count This Hour Has 22 Minutes)
I subscribe to Harper's Magazine. This is so satiric, ironic, funny.... and right on.
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:04:48 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:04
gretag
Good list. I've been to one of Dion's townhalls, where you can ask him anything you want.
Too bad Harper doesn't hold one. I have some questions for him.
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:16:17 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:16
fortescue
You forgot the most important one.....
Number of seats Dion will lose 30?
With repect to the Dion economic plan/carbon tax
Leave it to a liberal to believe that a tax can solve all the countries problems
crime- the dion jaywalk tax
investment- the dion capital gains tax
employment- raise ei
health care - the sick tax (they are all sick so name is somewhat redundant)
child care-carbon tax solves
national unity- a flag tax
senate reform- exempt from tax as they are all liberals
or amount of gas they let off they will be subject to carbon tax
or what senate?
its like shooting ducks in a barrel. Dion has no policies, no vision, no political savvy. This guy makes Stockwell Day look prime Ministerial.
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:23:48 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:23
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
fortescue......how about the income trust lie?
how about money laundering during the last election?
how about bribing a sitting MP?
Want more... tune in.
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:40:06 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:40
westerner (suspended)
What about the Liberal NAFTA and GST LIE? Remember? --renegotiate NAFTA and cancel the GST--Liberal lies!
[updated Tue Sep 16 09:37:22 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 09:37
fortescue. methinks you're getting a bit nasty. The Libs don't believe a tax will solve everything, that the war on crime is about jaywalking or any other of your listed lies and distortions.
Mr. Dion has no vision nor policies? How absurd a claim is that?
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:41:03 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:41
fortescue
Me nasty
how about TPQ "don't worry fortescue...the tory brown shirts are never far away"
Anyway i apoligize if I offended.
Money Laundering...First it was ther own money, second, it is subject of court case, which any decent lawyer would tell you the toires will win. It was brilliant campaign financial planning. All parties do similar things. Speaking of campaign financing. I hear dion defaulted on another required repayment of his campaign debt. sound financial management.
Re bribing a sitting mp. I believe that is also the subject of a personal lwsuit by Harper agianst the liberal party. Agian lib smear goes to far and they will pay with there existence. they were even offered many chances to withdraw the statement and would not.
Income trust hard to argue that the policy was changed. Harper did react to changing circumstances. Real question is will Dion reverse the policy. Of course not, because it was the right decision at the right time. Harper new the political consequences and did it anyway. Tough decsion by a strong leader. It would have resulted in the total erosion of the corporate tax base and everyone knows it. Why don't you ask Dion if he will reverse the decision? The answer is because you know and I know he won't.
I apoligize if it was to nasty. I did not mean to attack anyone personally, i was trying to attack policy. I will reread and amend. As you know we are clearly all pasinate about politics. hence we are here<<<
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:57:02 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:57
fortescue
Seriously though. Please inform me. Outside of the Carbon tax and its associated tax rebates and spending programs. What has Dion proposed related to the economy?
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:01:41 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:01
Foxer
Spending. It's a typical tax and spend platform - he will buy up fishing licenses and such to deal with the death of the atlantic cod industry, he will spend 250 million on the pine beetle, etc.
What i have a concern with is 'what do we get'? I hear a lot of idealism from dion, and some cash numbers, but i'm not seeing much of a 'plan' of any sort. For example - I can look at harper's inclusion of self employed people into the EI plan and say 'ahh - ok, women will be able to take maternaty, and i can see how that will help'. But - i can't see how we'll reduce even one single pine beetle from the forest with dion's plan. I can't see how his committee he's spending those millions on for fishing will save one fish or one family's livelyhood? Even dion can't predict how his carbon tax will reduce carbon emmissions, so once again - nothing tangible. The increased child care allowance to specific tax brackets - what problem precisely does that resolve?
Even with layton i can see what the immediate benefit will be - x amount of dollars for y amount of jobs.
What is dion ACTUALLY going to do for us?
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:10:41 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:10
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
fortescue..wait until he unveils his full policy then you will know. He doesn't have to unveil his policy until the time is ripe and i believe that time is in the next several days.
For sure Dion won't propose stuff that will lead us to the deficit that Harper has probably already dragged us into...we know Flaherty lies through his teeth from recent Ontario history.
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:15:20 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:15
fortescue
TPQ
The surplus didn't dissappear. A good portion of it is in your pocket remember, that GST thing that was cut by 2%. If the liberals would like that back they are free to raise the GST again. Oh wait they are contemplating that arnt they. (Wanna see they clip) Not a lie, a fact!!
I have no problem waiting for his plan. You should just remind your buddy that he needs to put the details out before election day. Although on second though he might actually do better on election day if he waits until after. (ouch that hurts...)
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:27:08 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:27
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
It so happens that the GST cut is the worst tax cut of all. The best ones are those that leave more money in peoples pockets on payday..you know that if you have an economic bone in your body.that tax cut was done solely for populist reasons because it was the one they could generate the most publicity from. Harper is an indealogue who doesn't care about economics as his simple goal is to decentralize Canada so we won't recognize each other behind our walls. He will prostitute himself in any manner to get his majority and implement "the" plan his masters from the far right want.
The GST is not in my pocket...its not a reduction if I spend most of my money on on food or rent which for many Canadians is their major expense.
Your arrogance is going to get you a brown shirt designation;then again there will be sale on those post Oct.14.
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:38:01 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:38
Foxer
Actually - while i'm not sure it's fair to say harper 'foresaw the future', the gst cut has turned out to be a godsend.
One of the things that's keeping our economy going is the continued consumer spending we're seeing despite the slowdown. That's directly affected by the GST cut.
So - you're not only wrong there in general when you say income tax cuts are always best, as it turns out given what happened in our economy you're VERY wrong specifically in this case.
You can argue it was 'luck' rather than good planning that it turned out that way, but the fact is it was a great thing for the country.
And it is insane to suggest food and rent are the biggest expenses for most canadians. Vehicle expenses top out rent as a rule - the cost of buying, maintaining, insuring and feeding a car is as high or higher than rent for most people. It is for me, that's for sure. Then start to look at clothes, food that's not gst exempt, etc etc etc. It adds up.
The gst cut slashed billions out of our federal coffers - that money didn't come from business because the GST is a wash to them - so it came from canadian consumers.
It doesn't take a math genius to figure out that if there's about 20 million adults in canada, and 5 billion went in tax cuts to them, that people actually did notice a difference. And it wasn't to the rich - they funnel stuff thru their businesses already to avoid or reduce gst.
You should do a little math before making some of those statements.
[updated Tue Sep 16 00:28:26 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 00:28
westerner (suspended)
The Liberals promised to cancel the GST altogether. Promise made, promise broken! Yes, the worst tax cut of all.
[updated Tue Sep 16 09:39:54 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 09:39
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
The brown shirt,mutt, of mutt and jeff fame, who posted just below is another refugee from Harperland who fails to understand anytihng but waht he's told to say and write. Write garabge just to see his own garbage in print.
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:40:16 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:40
Foxer
Heh :) Struck a nerve again did I TPQ?
It's proof positive that you have no rebuttal or intelligent argument when all you can do is resort to insults. Perhaps try doing a little homework and learning the truth before you speak, you'll get caught out less.
[updated Tue Sep 16 00:29:26 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 00:29
Wait. The GST is a regressive tax. Your ability to pay doesn't count. If you're a business, you just pass it on. If you're a "bad" business, it doesn't matter.
Income tax is where progressive taxation takes hold. That's where those who can pay more do. Mr. Harper is an alleged economist but he doesn't appear to understand even the basics.
[updated Thu Sep 18 22:07:53 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 22:07
MRM
rsharp - Funny, heres another funny one for you - Yesterday's Harris Decima poll is titled :
"Dion trailing Layton, May for support in key ridings" Here's how it breaks down:
Nationally
Conservatives 40%
Liberals 26%
NDP 15%
Greens 9%
Assessing the leaders
Which one of the federal party leaders is talking most about the issues you care about personally?
B.C. BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
Stephen Harper: 29%
Stéphane Dion: 13%
Jack Layton: 21%
Elizabeth May: 11%
Other answer: 26%
ONTARIO BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
Stephen Harper: 37%
Stéphane Dion: 12%
Jack Layton: 14%
Elizabeth May: 9%
Other answer: 28%
QUEBEC BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
Stephen Harper: 24%
Stéphane Dion: 14%
Jack Layton: 13%
Gilles Duceppe: 13%
Elizabeth May: 6%
Other answer: 30%
Which leader has done better than you expected so far during the campaign?
B.C. BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
Stephen Harper: 23%
Stéphane Dion: 9%
Jack Layton: 13%
Elizabeth May: 18%
Other answer: 37%
ONTARIO BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
Stephen Harper: 24%
Stéphane Dion: 11%
Jack Layton: 18%
Elizabeth May: 15%
Other answer: 32%
QUEBEC BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS
Stephen Harper: 23%
Stéphane Dion: 12%
Jack Layton: 9%
Gilles Duceppe: 8%
Elizabeth May: 5%
Other answer: 43%
Isn't that hillarious?
[updated Tue Sep 16 07:41:45 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 07:41
elf
oh yes OPEN and HONEST governernment - that went out the window the day after the last election - Harper's version of open and honest ids openly lying about the facts and honestly trying to hoodwink the voters !!
[updated Thu Sep 18 15:25:02 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 15:25
Peggy
Dion has to open his meetings to the public as the base of his own party is not showing up. Besides he is using schools to do most of his announcements as he's sure of an audience that way. The kids can't get out.
[updated Sat Sep 20 17:23:50 EDT 2008]
20 Sep 17:23
Peggy, Mr. Harper doesn't hold open news conferences where he can be questioned by the media or the general public. Mr. Dion has held about 30 since the campaign began. Isn't that a clue?
Who's open and transparent? Who's manipulative and secretive?
[updated Sat Sep 20 18:21:33 EDT 2008]
20 Sep 18:21
Peggy, you excuse Mr. Harper's 100% manipulative/secretive ways because Mr. Dion goes to schools and talks to students? Your logic excapes me.
[updated Sat Sep 20 18:29:20 EDT 2008]
20 Sep 18:29
Peggy
IT WOULDN'T MATTER IF HE HELD 300 SINCE THE CAMPAIGN STARTED, NO ONE UNDERSTANDS OR KNOWS WHAT HE SAYS ANYWAY!!!!!!!! BESIDES THE POLLS SHOW, PEOPLE NO LONGER BELIEVE ALL THAT FOOLISHNESS ABOUT HARPER AND SECRECY STUFF THAT THE MEDIA AND LIBERALS GO ON ABOUT. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE THE MEDIA PUT IN THEIR PLACE!!!! THE PUBLIC GENERALLY LIKE IT TOO OBVIOUSLY!!!!
[updated Sun Sep 21 12:44:11 EDT 2008]
21 Sep 12:44
I understand what he says. But then, I'm listening.
[updated Sun Sep 21 14:19:28 EDT 2008]
21 Sep 14:19
Foxer
Heh :) Ok,
Q: Mr Dion, While in parliament you failed to vote 43 times. When you did vote, you often voted FOR things which you now disagree with, such as income trust taxes and extending Afghanistan. What would you say to a voter who says "you didn't vote for us, why should I vote for you"?
A: Do you think it's easy to make plausible excuses?!?
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:20:53 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:20
Q. Mr. Dion, you are perceived as caving to the Conservatives on almost countless votes on bills with which you disagreed. How can you explain this?
A. Well, Peter, I had a tough choice to make each time, always tempered by the simple fact that most Canadians didn't want an election. How well could we Liberals do if we forced an election on the many petty matters the Tories threw at us?
Afghanistan? That was my toughest call. I knew it was a quagmire and, under the circumstances, I believed that by exacting promises from Mr. Harper on a specific end-date and doing more in terms of reconstruction as opposed to offensive war, we could do the most in the time we had left.
Mr. Harper has therefore only been true to his word, in very small part. And he hasn't promised not to get us into other future wars the Americans deem necessary, even if not sanctioned by the United Nations. I will make that promise, right here, right now.
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:45:53 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:45
Foxer
ROFL -
Translation -
Well peter - i didn't think it was best for the liberal party to go then, and I care more about the party than my morals.
Afghanistan? We knew we were in the wrong. But we wanted to appeal to the left voters, so we said one thing and did another. It's worked for us in the past.
I will promise not to get us into another war like the one my party did in afghanistan. Of course - we also promised to axe the gst and I promised to do something about kyoto when i was minister. So take that with a grain of salt.
[updated Mon Sep 15 22:21:54 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 22:21
Peggy
I think that should be the Tory's next ads-showing the opposition benches when these votes were being taken and ask the public who are these cowards?????? Do you really want to be represented by these people???
[updated Sat Sep 20 17:26:07 EDT 2008]
20 Sep 17:26
Foxer
heh - or in this case FAIL to be represented by these people :)
[updated Sat Sep 20 17:35:49 EDT 2008]
20 Sep 17:35
I can not believe how resilient the Liberal brand is .They have taken body blow after body blow and still the Con-clones lead by barely six points .
I still thik Mr.Dion will have to do something dramatic to crusj the Cons once and for all.
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:34:57 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:34
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Q.Uh Mr. harper why did you have the manual for your MP's that told them how to stonewall parliament and its committees?
A. We have to answer questions?
Q. Mr Harper why did you launder money inside your own party tus violating EC rules
A. we're cons and don't have to follow rules do we?
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:43:52 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:43
fortescue
TPQ What is your obsession with calling everyone a NAZI?
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:52:18 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:52
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
where have I used that word here?
[updated Mon Sep 15 22:06:18 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 22:06
fortescue
Brown shirts is well known slur. Defined by wikipedia below as a reference to the Hitlers paramiltary organization. I assume you knew this. If not I apoligize, but please refrain from using the term. It is extremely offesive.
The Sturmabteilung (help·info), abbreviated SA, (German for "Assault detachment" or "Assault section", usually translated as "stormtroop(er)s"), functioned as a paramilitary organization of the NSDAP — the German Nazi party. It played a key role in Adolf Hitler's rise to power in the 1930s.
SA men were often called "brownshirts", for the colour of their uniforms, and to distinguish them from the Schutzstaffel (SS), who wore black and brown uniforms (compare the Italian blackshirts)
[updated Mon Sep 15 22:33:14 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 22:33
Foxer
Sometimes he finds its easier to hurl insults than to have an intelligent argument.
[updated Mon Sep 15 23:07:34 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 23:07
fortescue
I just did not get why he would use such a vile term. I am not sure he knew what it meant. I will give him the benefit of the doubt. It is going to be an interesting race.
I am really concerned that a tax and spend policy, which i truly believe is what the carbon tax is is not what the economy needs. I worry that it is a new liberal strategy. See Mcguinties health levy. The only province to increase taxes and lags he rest of Canada in personal and corporate tax cuts, and its the one province in the country that is clearly struggling. Taxes are drags on economies, all economists agree. It is not what we need now.
[updated Mon Sep 15 23:21:05 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 23:21
Foxer
Yeah - and to take it further, the western provinces have all abandoned tax and spend and have cut income and business taxes to the bone. And lo and behold guess what... THEY are not having economic problems right now anywhere near what ontario is. Unemployment is still very very low, growth is decent, business is strong. In fact, if you took ontario out of the picture for canada, we'd be looking pretty good on the strength of the western economies.
So it's a pretty clear indication that the idea of tax and spend doesn't work. As painful as it is, you need to cut taxes to get growth, and in the long run that pays better.
Dion's plan is death - much higher costs to an already crippled trucking and farming industry, an airline industry that's already got players dropping like flies, and an increase to electrical costs and shipping costs to an automotive industry that's shedding jobs like a cocker spaniel sheds hair.
Not only will it cripple us now - it will leave us in a poor position when the recovery finally does happen, and we will lag badly behind other countries when we should be strong and grabbing up new markets.
We can't afford it. Dion talks about planning for the 'next generation' but all he'll do is saddle that generation with a horrible fiscal mess. Just like we saw with the trudeau debt spending that nearly crippled us and took 20 years to resolve.
[updated Tue Sep 16 00:20:11 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 00:20
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
fortescue,
So pray tell, please explain to us how you control GHG emissions other than with a tax. Every jurisdiction in the world is taxing pollution. Dion wants to tax it and credit it back to the population in the form of lower taxes;pretty simple concept. He wants to simply focus our attention on cleaner air. Harper and his brown shirts have assaulted that plan instead of debating it, so the real truth is obscured for now. Harper's plan will "eventually" tax pollution once the smog is so heavy we can't see past our noses. What will he do with the additional tax money once he gets it. He has no deterence program for polluters except some cap and trade program that kicks in sometime after we are all dead and the next generation is less healthy.
Moving on, how will Harper keep the budget in balance by reducing more taxes. The answer is simple of course and Flaherty has the formula from the Harris era that ended so successfully that provincial cons are going to be in the wilderness for a long long time. You download more and more taxes to the lower jurisdictions and strangle their ability to raise money and pay for these transfers. Ask Ontarians about that era. Ask yourself why Flaherty is being kept out of sight in this election. Mcguinty can and will give you that answer.
Ontario pays $21B more into the federal system than it gets back in services and other national responsibilities the feds disperse. So, if they stopped making those payments or at least evened them out on a per capita basis where would the feds be?
Flaherty hides behind the "brown shirt" type of attack and never answers the question. Nor does Harper whose sole focus is on the west where natural resources have kicked in big time on the revenue front and where his brown shirts get all his money to run attack ads. Therefore the very soft GHG programs.
We are about to see a pretty good recession in the world;tell us how Harper will cope with that having no revenue surplus to spare. The tory lump of coal is coming if he gets elected,trust me. Tory times are tough times as the G&M noted in last Saturday's paper. On average over the last 50 years the economy, GDP, has done better by over 1% annually under federal Liberal regimes than under the Cons.
Where is the honest accountable government we were promised from the leader of the brown shirts. Instead we get a gestapo type PMO, a series of scandals that are agressively swept under the rug while anyone who tries to bring them up gets assaulted or sued. Why is there a playbook for cons MP's that tells them how to frustrate the HOC's and its committees.
I'm aware that politics is a dirty game but do we have to applaud it and vote Harper back in to personify that as Canada's gift to democracy. His attacks on the leader of the opposition are baseless lies and simply hide the fact he has no intention of ever telling the population what his real plans for governing are. Sure, he announces a set of targetted populist stuff to try and get votes from segments of the population he needs votes from. But where are the national projects that make us more competitive and more Canadian as opposed to being a branch of the republicans.
The only national project is to make us serve Harper's western band of right wing storm troopers who feed him his attack ad money. His American mentor, flanigan has openly stated that dirty politics is winning politics. Now do you still wonder why I call them "brown shirts".
[updated Tue Sep 16 05:18:02 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 05:18
fortescue
First of all now we have used brown shirts and Gustapo, very impressive. You are expanding your vocabulary. I can hardle wait I am sure you are going to start blaming the problems on the jooooooos soon. You are clearly a left wing daily kos reading left wing wacko who lives in his parents basements and secretly wishes he had the nerve to talk to someone as pretty as Sarah Palin. You are so upset you are not an American because you would so like to vote for Obama. You have never travelled more than 100kms from your basement. You work for the government. You have a pictue of Al Gore on your wall. You believe 911 was an inside job. Rosie Odonnel is your hero. (
See theres a good personal insult without having to resort to calling people nazi, one is offensive (nazi/brownshirt) the other is mearly childish (my rant). Try to be more creative, its much more fun to read.
Oh and on policy, you have swallowed the liberal talking points so often, you do not know the difference between policy and hyperbole.
A common misconception. Reducing carbon does not equal reducing smog. They are completly different problems.
Second. There are altenatives to taxes. Regulation is an example. Caps.
Third. Dion ons record on the enviroment. Not the talk, the action....He named his dog Kyoto.
Fourth Garth is in trouble again, will Dion have the class to apoligize. Will he even understand the issue.
Fifth I have to go, worker bees are waiting for me to get in and oppress them. You should go soon too. You will miss your morning coffe break if you do not leave for work soon.
[updated Tue Sep 16 08:15:45 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 08:15
Foxer
The nice thing about caps is that they don't impact activity below a certain point. And that point can be started relatively high and then lowered over time to give companies a chance to adjust. If you play within the rules - there's no tax or costs at all. It changes businesses thinking without penalizing them just for being in business.
A tax is a tax - and nowhere has a straight tax done particularly well. In those places where it's had SOME effect the tax money was put directly back into green tech for those being taxed. It wasn't used as a 'wealth transfer'.
The green tax is a horrible idea.
[updated Tue Sep 16 11:06:52 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 11:06
Bernie
rsharp
So far i see 26 replies. None of them dealt with your question.
I know mitpicking but "Mr. Harper, you are an avowed believer in free enterprise ..." gave me a chuckle.
I don't know what Harper believes and it doesn't matter. He is just a front for the corporations. He has to do what they tell him. He has the playbook learned off and he has to execute. If not, they will get rid of him, not the voters.
Free enterprise (like free trade) is the big lie. They have told it so often uneducated people believe i. It's the myth that people still believe in. Corporations do everything they can to reduce competition. They love monopoly or as few entities as possible who operate in collusion. You just try to operate in competition to them and see what happens.
I don't have to explain the details here. All one has to do is go to the library and shelves are loaded with volumes that explain the situation in detail and the documental proof of what they say. Of course the myth believers would rather hide their heads in the sand and not want to alter their previously held fantasies. They can't bear to admit how wrong the were. So they continue with the false beliefs. Sad really.
That is the world Harper is locked into. The Conservatives would be wise to rid themselves of Harper and his ilk and return to their status as serious, responsible national party that they once were under the PC label.
[updated Tue Sep 16 08:30:14 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 08:30
MRM
PART ONE
OK, If you guys want a real debate on the policies then actually list some ACTUAL policies to debate. Provide the actual wording of the policies and state why you think that they are flawed with the facts along with recognized sources to back it up. The truth is though that you guys don’t really want to debate, you more accurately want to debase. You just want to mud sling and regurgitate left wing ideological hyperbole interspersed with conspiracy theories, none of which can be backed up by any credible facts or data. To say that “I don’t have to explain the details here” is just a cop out and does not pass the smell test on credibility. If you want a “real debate” then I suggest that you both get real and start actually debating.
Yes, Harper is a staunch advocate of free enterprise and by the way so are the Liberals you guys love so much. In fact on this point there is no substantive difference in their platforms. Only the Greens and the NDP differ with policies that would undermine free enterprise and free trade through regressive trade policy, high taxation and price controls.
On the Iraq war it is the Liberals who are lying. The fact is that we now know that Chretien actually offered to send troops but the US declined the offer, instead opting for soldiers for Afghanistan which he readily agreed to and sent without even a vote in the House. So much for democracy under the Liberals I guess?
From Chretien’s Bio:
“In December 2003, it emerged that the government had prepared plans for Canada to send as many as 800 Canadian troops to Iraq once the UN Security Council had authorized it; however, a UN request for an increased deployment of Canadian soldiers to Afghanistan removed this option from the table. This led some of Chrétien's anti-war critics on the left to accuse the Prime Minister of never really being fully opposed to the war. Nonetheless, Canada was the first non-member of the US-led coalition to provide significant financial aid to the post-war reconstruction effort, relative to Canada's size. This move allowed Canadian companies to bid on reconstruction contracts.”
[updated Tue Sep 16 14:03:55 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 14:03
MRM
PART TWO
Boy talk about a hidden agenda, here’s another Liberal fraud perpetuated on the Canadian people. That being we did not participate in the war in Iraq under the Liberals. Chretien made a big show about standing up to the U.S. when in fact we were bending over backward on his orders to assist them in any way we could. From International Defense Review Magazine:
“Ironically, the Canadians under PM's Chretien and Martin indirectly provided more support for us in Iraq than most of those 46 countries that are “fully” supporting us.” states former U.S. Ambassador to Canada Paul Cellucci.
What? But how can that be? Canada gave a defiant ‘no’ to the war in Iraq, didn’t it? Well, actually, no. While the Liberal government wanted Canadians to believe that they had stood up against the U.S. and opposed the Iraq war, Canada was very much involved. What’s worse, despite the still-prevailing myth that Canada never joined that war, our government and military were closely collaborating in the U.S. mission in Iraq. Here are ten ways in which Canada contributed to the Iraq Mission:
1. Providing RADARSAT Data: Eagle Vision, a U.S. Air Force mobile ground station which retrieves data from Canada’s RADARSAT-1 satellite and downlinks its data was deployed to the Persian Gulf at the start of the 2003 war against Iraq. A Pentagon source told Space News, “It’s doing great things... It’s working like gangbusters.”
2. Training Iraqi Police and Troops: Dozens of RCMP have been deployed to Jordan to train the Iraqi police force. Canada has given some $17.5 million for the “Iraq Security Sector” which includes police training and the provision of Canadian advisors to Iraq’s Interior Ministry.
3. Training Iraqi Troops: High-level Canadian military personnel under NATO command joined the “NATO Training Mission in Iraq” to “train the trainers” of Iraqi Security Forces. A Canadian colonel, under NATO command, was the chief of staff at the training mission based in Baghdad.
4. Leading the Coalition Navy: Hundreds of Canadian troops aboard Canadian warships not only escorted the U.S. fleet through the Persian Gulf on their way to the Iraq war in 2003, they led the coalition’s naval operations in the area for long periods of time.
5. Helping Coordinate the Air War: Canadian military personnel worked aboard U.S. E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) warplanes that directed the electronic air war by coordinating the flight paths of U.S. bombers and fighters in sorties over Iraq.
6. Diplomatic Support: Then-Prime Minister Chrétien supported the “right” of the U.S. to invade Iraq. Chrétien also criticised Canadian citizens who dared to question the war. Chrétien said protesters gave comfort to Saddam Hussein.
7. Providing War Planners: At least two dozen Canadian war planners working at U.S. Central Command in Florida were transferred to the Persian Gulf in early 2003 to help oversee the complicated logistics of the Iraq war.
8. Providing Airspace & Refuelling: U.S. troop and equipment transport aircraft have flown over Canada to and from the Iraq war and many have refuelled in Newfoundland.
9. Providing Ground Troops: At least 35 Canadian soldiers were directly under U.S. command, in an exchange capacity, on the ground, during the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
10. Providing Air Transport: At least three Canadian CC-130 military transport planes were listed by the U.S. military as helping supply coalition forces during the Iraq war.
On your comments on “deregulation, privatization, spending, taxation and their close relationship with the military/security/industrial complex.” do you have any facts to back any of that up? As for political views a quick review of the Republican and Democratic Party platforms compared to the CPC platform will show that they are much closer in ideology to the Democrats than the Republicans, which is why Obama invited the CPC to his convention and not the LPC.
[updated Tue Sep 16 14:11:07 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 14:11
MRM
rsharp - I didn't think that you were really serious about having a debate.
[updated Wed Sep 17 07:55:06 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 07:55
elf
good one
[updated Wed Sep 17 19:26:52 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 19:26