Our CPAC-Nanos tracking shows a statistical tie in Canada’s two most populous provinces for the second consecutive night. Nationally, the Conservatives lead and Harper enjoys a significant leadership advantage, however the story after week one of the campaign is the decline in support for the Bloc. With all three federalist parties gaining ground in Quebec the campaigns will be battling hard to pick up former Bloc voters.
Our most current wave of tracking (completed September 14th) shows the Conservatives hold a six point advantage over the Liberals, nationally, among decided voters (CP - 37%, Lib - 31%, NDP - 18%, GP - 9%, BQ - 6%). The Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a statistical tie in Quebec for the second consecutive night (CP and Bloc - 26% each, Lib - 23%). The spread between the Liberals and Conservatives within the Atlantic provinces is within the margin of accuracy for the research (Lib - 40%, CP- 34%). In Ontario the Tories (37%) and Grits (35%) are tied while the Tories continue to lead the Liberals by 16 points in Western Canada.
On the best PM front, one third (34%) of Canadians chose Stephen Harper as the best Prime Minister, 16 points ahead of Jack Layton (18%). Stephane Dion remains in third, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe (Best PM - Harper - 34%, Layton - 18%, Dion - 14%, May - 4%, Duceppe - 4%, None - 9% and Undecided - 18%).
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Stephen Harper out front of the other party leaders with an overnight score of 96 points compared to Jack Layton’s 48 and Stephane Dion’s 45 point scores. Elizabeth May received a score of 18 points followed by Gilles Duceppe at 12 points overall.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 13, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=961, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37% (-1)
- Liberal Party 31% (+1)
- NDP 18% (+1)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- BQ 6% (NC)
- Undecided 20% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (-2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
- None of them 9% (NC)
- Unsure 18% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 96 (-6)
- Jack Layton 48 (-5)
- Stephane Dion 45 (+3)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+4)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+2)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
As predicted the Tory move has abated and the libs are moving somewhat. The effe... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 15 Sep 14:08
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant bod... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:00
If the numbers for Quebec are anything close to accurate, this election may be a... more
Peter3 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:34
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant bod... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:00
I can't resist. Read this LPC communication: September 15, 2008 Harper's Inde... more
rsharp (Québec) 15 Sep 20:04
Yeah - and to take it further, the western provinces have all abandoned tax and ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 16 Sep 00:20
Comments
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
As predicted the Tory move has abated and the libs are moving somewhat. The effects of Harper's unethical pre election attack ads are wearing off and the libs are starting to campaign. The NDP move is also temporary I believe and they will move back to the 15/16% range.
[updated Mon Sep 15 14:08:53 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 14:08
34 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
tdot416
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant body blows that Harper is throwing at them (and also how little all of the gaff's Harper's team had last week, doesnt seem to be having much impact on the numbers). If the Liberals decide to start ramping up the negative advertising, things could get a lot closer. The Liberals could be looking total wash if Harper gets over 40%, this could send them into the political wilderness for many many years to come, why are they holding back?
Also interesting to see the fed Liberals creep back into the Quebec landscape, I think if the Liberals are able to stick around 23-25% of the vote in Quebec, they will be able to win back a few of the seats they lost in 2006 with the colapse of the Bloc vote in some of the 514 ridings (Papineau/Jeanne LeBer), Outremont, not much Conservative chances on the island of Montreal), the Conservative gains in Quebec will be able to offset the loses in NFLD and I'm thinking, maybe 2-3 in the maritimes and 4-5 in BC.
Basically, Nik's numbers are going to send us back to another minority, less Bloc, more Conservative in Quebec, which is always a good thing and a few seat trades across the country. Or I could be wrong, and the Left Wing splitting is going to allow Harper to walk into a majority with his eyes closed, sorta like the Chretien days?
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:00:15 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:00
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Peter3
If the numbers for Quebec are anything close to accurate, this election may be about to head off in directions never explored by the Canadian electorate before.
Jack Layton must be pretty pumped about what the numbers are showing. He's a long way from winning anything, but his party seems to have a real chance to make a major move in Quebec that has the potential to alter the face of national politics.
It's interesting that the three main national parties are all essentially at the same level of support they enjoyed in 2006, but that the distribution of support has apparently changed significantly.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:34:39 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:34
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Quebec is very much in flux and things won't settle down there vote wise until very close to election day. Too many undecideds/unsures.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:36:54 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:36
larryl
Peter . The way I see it voters in Quebec can't see any point to voting for the seperatists but don't like Harper . They are reluctant to go back to their Liberal roots so the NDP is reaping the benefits. As we get closer to election day if the CPC is close to a majority they will listen to Duceppe who is warning of a Harper majority . They are not likely to stick with their new choice but will decide at the last minute to prevent a majority government will vote Liberal in spite of Dion. The best thing would be for the people in Dion's riding to elect some other candidate and Stephane would be shamed into resigning. Of course that won't alter the results of the election but would if they could get rid of Dion before we vote.
[updated Mon Sep 15 16:28:07 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 16:28
fortescue
Am I missing something/ Where has Nic shown the NDP support in Quebec in this poll?
[updated Mon Sep 15 17:28:33 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 17:28
Peter3
The regional breakouts are at:
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-September-15-2008E.pdf
[updated Mon Sep 15 18:37:39 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 18:37
larryl, do not write off a kind and decent man. Someone you can trust and with a great team. Someone with vision.
More action on the environment, more help for the disadvantaged, fairer taxation, a more independent foreign policy, more protective of universal health care (and the CBC and the wheat board)...... there are a slew of policy areas where Mr. Dion has it all over Mr. Harper. I'm not holding my breath that the MSM will ever properly report same, so something else has got to be done.
[updated Mon Sep 15 18:56:04 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 18:56
larryl
Sharp. I have no problem with Dion but the impression the public has is what is important. He will cause the re-election of the Harper government not because he is incompetent or that his plan is wrong. The people have been baffled by the CPC attack machine. I have no doubt he is a much better choice than Pinnochio but the majority believe your language skills are more important than honesty and integrity. Since I understand every word he says in either language I know his plan would help but that is not what the average voters hears or sees. The only reason I think Dion should resign is to save our country from the neo-con policies that will be implemented by a Harper majority.
[updated Mon Sep 15 19:11:57 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 19:11
Peter3
I don't have an inside view on the Liberal machinery, but it is difficult to avoid the impression that the extraordinary political instincts and ruthlessly efficient ground campaign that characterized the Liberal Party for most of its life are missing from this campaign.
Whether this is a legacy bequeathed to Mr. Dion by Paul Martin (arguably the most inept federal politician in several generations) or a problem with his own organisation, he is suffering for it. It is difficult to imagine Jean Chretien or Pierre Trudeau getting off to this sort of start to a camapign.
Like him or not, Peter Donolo was a formidable force in past Liberal campaigns and he's working as a pundit this time. The news media can hardly be blamed for that.
There can be no doubt that Mr. Dion is a decent, sincere man with a deeply held personal vision. In politics, however, that won't even get you a cup of coffee unless you have a$1.50 to go with it. His vision will only persuade people if it is conveyed to them in terms they can relate to. It isn't happening.
It is not too late to turn that around, but it soon will be. If the bump of the last day or two turns out to be statistical noise and his numbers aren't trending up by the weekend, he has a serious problem. Banking on strategic voting is pretty risky in the current political environment, especially given the underlying volatility of voter intentions pointed to in the polling.
[updated Mon Sep 15 19:15:49 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 19:15
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
peter3...the lib machine is all cranked and ready to go. they work the ground wars better than any other party and you will see this more and more as the electio day comes closer. Harper can only shoot from afar in most ridings as the cons ground game is not that pretty or well organized other than in Alberta and several other scattered ridings here and there. The libs are weak on the ground in rural Quebec but do have a machine working most ridings.
[updated Mon Sep 15 19:34:10 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 19:34
Bernie
Peter3
I don't know anything about Quebec politics but what I hear and read doesn't show that the NDP will get more than 2 or 3 seats, unfortunately. You must have better information than I.
[updated Tue Sep 16 07:54:29 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 07:54
Peter3
As I said at the outset, the information I have is the breakout for Quebec in the Nanos polling (and other polls showing similar trends). I have no way of knowing whether that is better than your information, but it is reasonably informative. Most informed observers give the Nanos polling credit for being better than many.
The Quebec numbers show the NDP polling above the 15% level provincially, which is presumably heavily concentrated in a few areas. If that holds, it should translate into at least 2 or 3 seats, and maybe considerably more than that. If it is evenly spread (unlikely), it could translate into none.
There's still a month to go and much can change, but a three-way tie among the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc with the NDP above 15% is a brand new situation in Quebec federal politics.
Anyway, from a national perspective, anything that establishes a new national party on the Quebec scene will have serious longterm implications. I expect that Jack Layton would be thrilled to take 3 Quebec seats in this election, and I am equally sure that neither the Bloc nor the Liberal Party would like it much at all.
[updated Tue Sep 16 09:12:44 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 09:12
We need to start a "debate" thread. I'll go first.
Subject: The Economy
Q: Mr. Harper, you are an avowed believer in free enterprise and markets and wanted Canada to go to war against Iraq. You appear very attached to the Republican party's position on issues of deregulation, privatization, spending, taxation and their close relationship with the military/security/industrial complex.
Most Canadians can see that,"The emperor has no clothes?" Why can't you?
A. Mr. Dion is not a leader.
[updated Mon Sep 15 19:21:24 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 19:21
45 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.