Our CPAC-Nanos tracking shows a statistical tie in Canada’s two most populous provinces for the second consecutive night. Nationally, the Conservatives lead and Harper enjoys a significant leadership advantage, however the story after week one of the campaign is the decline in support for the Bloc. With all three federalist parties gaining ground in Quebec the campaigns will be battling hard to pick up former Bloc voters.
Our most current wave of tracking (completed September 14th) shows the Conservatives hold a six point advantage over the Liberals, nationally, among decided voters (CP - 37%, Lib - 31%, NDP - 18%, GP - 9%, BQ - 6%). The Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a statistical tie in Quebec for the second consecutive night (CP and Bloc - 26% each, Lib - 23%). The spread between the Liberals and Conservatives within the Atlantic provinces is within the margin of accuracy for the research (Lib - 40%, CP- 34%). In Ontario the Tories (37%) and Grits (35%) are tied while the Tories continue to lead the Liberals by 16 points in Western Canada.
On the best PM front, one third (34%) of Canadians chose Stephen Harper as the best Prime Minister, 16 points ahead of Jack Layton (18%). Stephane Dion remains in third, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe (Best PM - Harper - 34%, Layton - 18%, Dion - 14%, May - 4%, Duceppe - 4%, None - 9% and Undecided - 18%).
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Stephen Harper out front of the other party leaders with an overnight score of 96 points compared to Jack Layton’s 48 and Stephane Dion’s 45 point scores. Elizabeth May received a score of 18 points followed by Gilles Duceppe at 12 points overall.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 13, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=961, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37% (-1)
- Liberal Party 31% (+1)
- NDP 18% (+1)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- BQ 6% (NC)
- Undecided 20% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (-2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
- None of them 9% (NC)
- Unsure 18% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 96 (-6)
- Jack Layton 48 (-5)
- Stephane Dion 45 (+3)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+4)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+2)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
As predicted the Tory move has abated and the libs are moving somewhat. The effe... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 15 Sep 14:08
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant bod... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:00
If the numbers for Quebec are anything close to accurate, this election may be a... more
Peter3 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:34
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant bod... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:00
I can't resist. Read this LPC communication: September 15, 2008 Harper's Inde... more
rsharp (Québec) 15 Sep 20:04
Yeah - and to take it further, the western provinces have all abandoned tax and ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 16 Sep 00:20
Comments
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
As predicted the Tory move has abated and the libs are moving somewhat. The effects of Harper's unethical pre election attack ads are wearing off and the libs are starting to campaign. The NDP move is also temporary I believe and they will move back to the 15/16% range.
[updated Mon Sep 15 14:08:53 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 14:08
34 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
tdot416
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant body blows that Harper is throwing at them (and also how little all of the gaff's Harper's team had last week, doesnt seem to be having much impact on the numbers). If the Liberals decide to start ramping up the negative advertising, things could get a lot closer. The Liberals could be looking total wash if Harper gets over 40%, this could send them into the political wilderness for many many years to come, why are they holding back?
Also interesting to see the fed Liberals creep back into the Quebec landscape, I think if the Liberals are able to stick around 23-25% of the vote in Quebec, they will be able to win back a few of the seats they lost in 2006 with the colapse of the Bloc vote in some of the 514 ridings (Papineau/Jeanne LeBer), Outremont, not much Conservative chances on the island of Montreal), the Conservative gains in Quebec will be able to offset the loses in NFLD and I'm thinking, maybe 2-3 in the maritimes and 4-5 in BC.
Basically, Nik's numbers are going to send us back to another minority, less Bloc, more Conservative in Quebec, which is always a good thing and a few seat trades across the country. Or I could be wrong, and the Left Wing splitting is going to allow Harper to walk into a majority with his eyes closed, sorta like the Chretien days?
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:00:15 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:00
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
tdot416,One thing to bear in mind is that no non Quebec party leader has won the majority of voters or seats in Quebec since Pearson's time, I believe, and even then he had the socreds to deal with.
I cannot see Harper coming even close to winning a majority of votes or seats there and if Dion catches fire he will extinguish any cons flames in the province in a hurry as people are ready to move on from the bloc.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:32:41 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:32
Foxer
Well - saying dion is 'surviving the body blows' is a little misleading. He dropped 5 points within the first week, while his opponents have all gained with the exception of the bloc.
People will sit back and watch a bit, and i doubt you'll see much movement for any party till at least the end of this week if then. When kim campbell and chretien fought it out, there was always a few weeks between slides (either down or up respectively). What we'll see now is a little dancing inside the margin of error (one point up, one point down) as people digest what they see over the next little while.
It's too early to say whether vote splitting or the like will have an impact. Right now we're looking at a stronger cpc minority if the voting were held tomorrow (based on the numbers) and a slightly lower liberal seat count with a slightly higher ndp seat count and a diminished bloc. It'll be a while before we can say how it's going to play out. A lot of things can still happen. At this point in the last election the libs were still polling ahead of the CPC and look how that turned out.
[updated Mon Sep 15 17:37:00 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 17:37
Great point. I am cured of my despondency. Shame on those (many) media pundits and pollsters who have written off Mr. Dion, the only true alternative to Mr. Harper. There's still a month to go!
And two months until the Yanks elect the next leader of the world. Who would go better with Mr. Harper? I expect John McCain but that is by no means a good thing for Canada's place in the world and ordinary Canadians. Or, duh, their blind loyalty to the "free market" and their difficulty in seeing anything wrong in the private sector that warrants their intervention.
Look what's goin' down down south. The fall from grace and greed.
[updated Mon Sep 15 18:47:43 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 18:47
Foxer
Hmmm - who would be better to go with harper? Good question. That really depends on a lot of things. It would be fair to say that obama's platform most closely mirror's Harper's and they'd have a lot of common ground that way. BUT - Obama is a bit of a 'protectionist', he wants to look at restricting trade in order to promote jobs 'at home'. Now - how serious is he about that? Hard to say. It could lead to some challenging issues for us, we're very dependant on our trade with them.
Conversely, Mccain has said he wants closer ties with Canada's businesses. So, economically more common ground. However he wants to do things like offshore drilling etc which will create political issues for harper and force him to keep a little distance, and there's some question if he's the best choice to lead america out of it's economic challenges. We need america to be fiscally on the road to recovery, and look at the insane deficits they've racked up under that lunatic bush. Also - harper has been hinting at some form of 'price control' mechanism which is to appear later in the campaign regarding gas prices ... that could present some issues for the republicans.
Really - it's pretty much a toss up. What is clear either way is we're going to need a strong negotiator at the table to make sure our interests get represented well and in that respect harper should do just fine. The US still needs our oil very badly.
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:28:19 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:28
Foxer, no, you're wrong. Obama would esalate the war in Afghanistan while Mr. Harper is now saying, "We're outta there." Good for Mr. Harper, even if his purposes are not entirely noble.
Every national leader is protectionist in favour of their country's industry. The Americans way more so than us, the most foreign-controlled economy of which I know. Harper has stood by while more Canadian companies got gobbled up, saying good by to head office jobs and spin offs, including research, banking, legal, marketing and other almost certain losses.
Did I mention strategic interest.... up and coming industries in hi-tech, environmental protection, transportation, uranium, .....
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:55:01 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:55
Foxer
Obama wants' more troops there, that is true. But we'll still be there till 2011, and even obama can't fault us for having done our time and going home. We stuck it out and did our share. Nobody can say we left before it was time.
And it's a safe bet we'll still have trainers there - a handful of 'advisers' to make sure the ongoing training of the troops goes well. And of course our reconstruction teams will likely be there.
2011 buys obama enough time to shift troops from one theatre to another without a lot of sweat.
As to harper 'standing by' - well we know that isn't true. Under harper, a bank merger was quashed, the telecommunications industry was preserved against some interesting 'bids', etc.
Harper will relax some rules, but the fact is we need investment to grow. It's that simple - if canadians won't pony up the cash, we'll have to look for it elswhere. However - you may be making a bit of a pre judgement to think it'll all be american by any stretch. I think we'll see a lot more chinese involvement as well.
Our strategic interests are still and will still be protected. And it all operates under canadian law, paying canadian tax and providing canadian jobs. And while some restrictions will be relaxed, none will be done away with . Canadians will still own significant shares in those industries, and with the extra investment their shares will be worth more than they are now anyway.
Shame we don't have all the cash we need ourselves, but we dont'. If the liberals had been a litte more focused on tax reduction and investment for people instead of running unnecessary double digit surpluses via excessive taxation for a decade, maybe we'd have more canadian capital available. But we don't.
I'd rather have half a big pie than all of nothing.
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:04:09 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:04
MRM
Foxer - Good post - I would also add that the Tories acted to protect our strategic interests when they saved our space industry from a US take over. As well, foreign investment works both ways so given the strong dollar, the weak global economy and large cash reserves that our banks are now holding, both our banks and industry and are now on shopping spree down South and in Europe. This will be a very strong platform for economic growth coming out of the first or second quarter of 09.
[updated Tue Sep 16 07:10:53 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 07:10
Foxer
True, although i think second quarter of 09 might be a hair optimistic :) The Americans will have to stop the bleeding before they can start to rebuild, and obviously that hasn't happened yet. I think probably 2010 is about the soonest we can seriously hope for any significant recovery.
Interestingly the US election may well help, regardless of who wins. Both candidates are running on the 'economy' and it's quite possible that once there's a winner, hope and optimisim in the states may well enjoy a little 'bounce', which can stimulate a little economic activity.
But from what i'm hearing, we're going to be looking at more banking failures and bad news for at least another few months. And of course, that's going to put pressure on the Canadian Economy.
Which is why we need a firm hand at the helm economically. This is not a good time for a massive 15 billion dollar tax hike.
[updated Tue Sep 16 10:59:24 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 10:59
MRM
Foxer - Yeah I agree with 2010 if you are talking about recovery of the US economy to where it was a few years ago but we are already seeing some signs that the US economy is improving even in the midst of the dire news from Wall St. So IMHO the recovery has already started and by Summer 09 it will be in moderately good shape here in Canada at least. The election will indeed be a stabalizing force on the US economy and the same is true here unless the Liberals are elected because the Green Shift plan makes the markets very nervous, not to mention the average consumer. There will be more failures in the US but they are now expected so the short term damage will be limited and in the long term assist with the recovery as bad debt is written down. I think that the weather and it's effect on gas prices and consumer confidence is more of an unknown factor with the potential to have a greater negative effect on the US economy than more bank failures.
[updated Tue Sep 16 14:25:08 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 14:25
Foxer
Well i sure won't shed any tears if you're right and i'm wrong, that's for sure. I'd love to see a recovery in 2009.
A harper majority would help here at home, because frankly the markets don't like minority gov'ts and never have. They like the stability of knowing what they're dealing with for the next 4 years, and obviously the green tax will have serious impacts on any business investment in canada.
[updated Tue Sep 16 14:30:46 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 14:30
Bernie
rsharp
Spot on. Even if Obama wins I doubt very much that he will be able to undo the damage of corporate administration under Cheney (Bush was just a figurehead)
They have a serious disease, it's contagious and we are so close to them.
If Harper gets a majority we will be in the same boat even without Harper we will have to bail like crazy to keep afloat.
If that happens the NDP will get some serious consideration.
[updated Tue Sep 16 07:46:48 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 07:46
elf
or the Greens - now there is a better option than the NDP -
[updated Wed Sep 17 19:29:29 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 19:29
This comment has been removed by the Moderator.
fortescue
Curious as to what you are refering to TPQ. If it is what I think it is, it is completely inappropriate. Maybe I should call Ezra and we can report you to the HRC? Just because you disagree with someone does not mean you have the right to refer to them as Nazi's. Extremely offensive. This is not American politics.
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:08:40 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:08
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
fortescue...go for it. I know offensive politics when I see them and these two brown shirt types have been levelling insults for months here and I've come to the conclusion they need to be taken to task for it. Calling Dion, and others, the names they do and casting aspersions on his character as they do is demeaning and sometihng only a Harper con would do. I stand by my comments.
I do the same thing to Harper so they can call me some names if they wish but again I stand by my call that Harper is the most unethical PM we have ever had and
he just loves these brownshirt types who do his bidding for him.
The brown shirt call by the way came to me form a very knowledgeable Lib party insider who knows how these people work and even suggested it was appropraite to call harper's accolytes that name.
Politics has become a very dirty game and since I alone cannot clean it up I will play by those rules.
I also like Ezra even if he's aright wing nut bar. He at least stands up for his beliefs unlike harper who is all smoke and mirrors and a liar, briber and money launderer.
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:38:28 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:38
MRM
TPQ - You are the most offensive blogger on this site. Only a low life piece of [EDITED BY MODERATOR] like you would resort to calling people NAZIs. Never mind that many still find the term hurtful and highly offensive. But of course as you admit, you take your talking points right out of the Liberal handbook on nasty scare tactics and lies designed to trick people into voting Liberal. How is all that working out for you [EDITED BY MODERATOR] anyway? Unfortuanately for you [EDITED BY MODERATOR] that is all you guys have left because you are completely devoid of any substantive policies and your flagship Green Shaft is sinking fast and Captain Goofy is going down with it.
[updated Tue Sep 16 08:48:32 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 08:48
elf
yes lets keep it civilized folks - polite insults only
[updated Wed Sep 17 19:28:20 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 19:28
elf
I think despite the nasty ads Harper has employed and despite the fact that many have not warmed to Dion the Liberal policies are far and away the most comfortable for most Canadians and that is what has stood the test of time. Yes, there is a lag in Liberal numbers based on the fact that many people are falling for the " economic disaster" line that Harper keeps saying will come about but some people are waking up to the fact that we really have to pay now or pay later and it is noew time for us to catch up with the rest of the world on the environment -
[updated Mon Sep 15 18:40:12 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 18:40
MRM
elf - None of your last past makes much sense? It is the Liberals and NDP who have gone negative in this campaign trying to scare voters into voting for them, not the Tories. Also, it is Dion who is talking about economic disaster while Harper is saying what every economist is saying, don't panic the Canadian economy is in pretty good shape. If you are talking about the economic disaster that will occur if the Green Shaft is introduced, it is not only Harper saying it but also Layton and a lot of economists. Given the curent worldwide economic situation people will now be even more leary of this wacky scheme.
[updated Tue Sep 16 07:22:20 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 07:22
elf
oh come on - be real here - pooping puffins - exconomic disaters ? raise the GST > Harper is the most negative politician we have had in - divisive politics - pit one against the other - good heavens - oh why am I bothered - you are clearly of a similar mindset
[updated Wed Sep 17 19:26:16 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 19:26
MRM
elf - I think that you need to get real. What planet have you been on?What "exconomic disaters" and he lowered the GST, twice?
[updated Thu Sep 18 13:14:15 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 13:14
elf
MRM - I am referring to the economic disaster that he foresees - this economic apocalypse that he is foreacasting if the Liberals get in - his " the sky is falling " attitude to scare voters into not voting for the most capable and sensible party - the Liberals - it was the LIbs that cleared up the books after the last tory fiasco
[updated Thu Sep 18 15:21:18 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 15:21
Amen !
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:36:33 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:36
elf
I think we'll be back where we started, number will swing a bit but we'll be back to the same idiocy in the HOuse as before - I read in some Harper writingds that he really likes to win ( who'd have thought it ) and if he doesn't win he usually quits !!
Now if he gets another minority he might just walk - hmmmm
[updated Wed Sep 17 19:32:38 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 19:32
Peter3
If the numbers for Quebec are anything close to accurate, this election may be about to head off in directions never explored by the Canadian electorate before.
Jack Layton must be pretty pumped about what the numbers are showing. He's a long way from winning anything, but his party seems to have a real chance to make a major move in Quebec that has the potential to alter the face of national politics.
It's interesting that the three main national parties are all essentially at the same level of support they enjoyed in 2006, but that the distribution of support has apparently changed significantly.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:34:39 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:34
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
We need to start a "debate" thread. I'll go first.
Subject: The Economy
Q: Mr. Harper, you are an avowed believer in free enterprise and markets and wanted Canada to go to war against Iraq. You appear very attached to the Republican party's position on issues of deregulation, privatization, spending, taxation and their close relationship with the military/security/industrial complex.
Most Canadians can see that,"The emperor has no clothes?" Why can't you?
A. Mr. Dion is not a leader.
[updated Mon Sep 15 19:21:24 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 19:21
45 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.