Our CPAC-Nanos tracking shows a statistical tie in Canada’s two most populous provinces for the second consecutive night. Nationally, the Conservatives lead and Harper enjoys a significant leadership advantage, however the story after week one of the campaign is the decline in support for the Bloc. With all three federalist parties gaining ground in Quebec the campaigns will be battling hard to pick up former Bloc voters.
Our most current wave of tracking (completed September 14th) shows the Conservatives hold a six point advantage over the Liberals, nationally, among decided voters (CP - 37%, Lib - 31%, NDP - 18%, GP - 9%, BQ - 6%). The Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a statistical tie in Quebec for the second consecutive night (CP and Bloc - 26% each, Lib - 23%). The spread between the Liberals and Conservatives within the Atlantic provinces is within the margin of accuracy for the research (Lib - 40%, CP- 34%). In Ontario the Tories (37%) and Grits (35%) are tied while the Tories continue to lead the Liberals by 16 points in Western Canada.
On the best PM front, one third (34%) of Canadians chose Stephen Harper as the best Prime Minister, 16 points ahead of Jack Layton (18%). Stephane Dion remains in third, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe (Best PM - Harper - 34%, Layton - 18%, Dion - 14%, May - 4%, Duceppe - 4%, None - 9% and Undecided - 18%).
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Stephen Harper out front of the other party leaders with an overnight score of 96 points compared to Jack Layton’s 48 and Stephane Dion’s 45 point scores. Elizabeth May received a score of 18 points followed by Gilles Duceppe at 12 points overall.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 13, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=961, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37% (-1)
- Liberal Party 31% (+1)
- NDP 18% (+1)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- BQ 6% (NC)
- Undecided 20% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (-2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
- None of them 9% (NC)
- Unsure 18% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 96 (-6)
- Jack Layton 48 (-5)
- Stephane Dion 45 (+3)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+4)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+2)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
As predicted the Tory move has abated and the libs are moving somewhat. The effe... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 15 Sep 14:08
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant bod... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:00
If the numbers for Quebec are anything close to accurate, this election may be a... more
Peter3 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:34
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant bod... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 15 Sep 15:00
I can't resist. Read this LPC communication: September 15, 2008 Harper's Inde... more
rsharp (Québec) 15 Sep 20:04
Yeah - and to take it further, the western provinces have all abandoned tax and ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 16 Sep 00:20
Comments
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
As predicted the Tory move has abated and the libs are moving somewhat. The effects of Harper's unethical pre election attack ads are wearing off and the libs are starting to campaign. The NDP move is also temporary I believe and they will move back to the 15/16% range.
[updated Mon Sep 15 14:08:53 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 14:08
34 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
I see a small retrenchment of the Conservative vote but no real gains for the Libs. Dions leadership numbers remain stagnant and well below Layton's. So how do you figure a drop in NDP support? You, my friend are in denial.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:00:35 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:00
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Non aligned(that's a joke onto its own)..........
Not really. Neither the libs or cons have gone after Layton yet and a ssoon a sthey do his numbers will drop. He also has many ABH voters that will switch to the Libs b/f election day. His numbers last election benefitted from adscam when many libs parked their votes there. They are not there now.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:07:06 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:07
Non-aligned in Toronto
I am no longer unaligned (at least for this election,) and am throwing my support behind the NDP. Contrary to what you say, the more the Libs and Cons hammer on the NDP the more their support will grow. It's when they get little or no coverage in the MSM as has often been the case in the past, when "strategic" voting hurts them.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:11:41 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:11
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Keep that wet dream alive but remember a vote for Layton is a vote for Harper.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:34:17 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:34
larryl
Newly. My friend TPQ doesn't remember when you told us that you were no longer non-aligned {Aug.29th}. Strategic voting does hurt the NDP because voters know they will never be anything but an opposition party. They know voting for Layton will allow Harper to form the government and many of us dread that . The main stream media needs to attract audiences or sell papers so why cover a party that does not grab headlines as much as the other two. The NDP is spending the same amount as the CPC so they have just reduced themselves to the level of the other parties who are there to grab power without any morality . When they had no money they at least had some integrity.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:45:51 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:45
Bernie
larryl I have to disagree with you with " know they will never be anything but an opposition party." We don't know that. I still insist that they have the better policies.
There was a time when people thought that they would never form a governemnt provincially either. Yet they have in BC, Sask, Man., Ont and very nearly in NS.
I don't think you should malign them so.
.If the head of their party was Peter Stoffer, Peter Julian, Tom King or maybe a few others I would probably vote for them too.
[updated Tue Sep 16 07:18:29 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 07:18
larryl
bernie. The only way the NDP could win is if there was only one extreme right wing party to run against them . The left would have to merge to form a united front and if they did that they would not form a new party that people perceive as a socialist party. The old CCF started out as socialist and the NDP has drifted to the right but is still perceived as far left. Ed Broadbent was seen as a strong leader but could never make much headway. A new leader would have to be on a par with Trudeau to cause the mania that we saw when he arrived on the scene. I doubt we will see another phenomenon like Pierre unless Justin picks up where his father left off.
[updated Tue Sep 16 09:57:11 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 09:57
gretag
I agree with Bernie. The NDP has been a positive force for social justice in the past under previous leaders. Their policies have eroded under Layton (opposing a carbon tax, particularly one that shifts resources to low and middle income, is a case in point) and their politics have really eroded (working with Harper to exclude the Greens is an example).
Interestingly, the NDP vote has actually grown under Layton which may be a sign that Layton's brand of politics over principle sells better than social justice does or may simply be a sign of some problems within the Liberal party.
However, I don't see the big gains some pundits claim to see in the NDP right now, despite Harper and some Conservatives trying to help them. They aren't polling any higher than during the last election and come election day this number typically goes down. Any environmentalists still sticking with the NDP may also be lost after the debates if May does a good job of explaining things.
[updated Tue Sep 16 11:34:20 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 11:34
Non-aligned in Toronto
So Larryl, I assume from your post that you feel that voting for the NDP is somehow immoral because it means I'm not voting for the Liberals.
I am not voting for the Liberals on principle. I don't support the war in Afghanistan. The Liberals joined with the Conservatives to extend that mission another three years, and it was the Liberals who got us there in the first place.
I also believe the "Green Shift is a fundamentally flawed plan for the environment, and prefer a hard Cap and Trade plan as proposed by Mr. Layton.
Finally there is the issue of past performance by the Liberal Party of Canada when they sat in government. Three elections in a row, the Liberals called for NDP supporters to vote "strategically", and backed it up with a series of "red books" that promised all sorts of left leaning policies. The moment the Liberals won, they tore up the promises and proceeded to slay the deficit on the backs of the working poor, the unemployed, and the middle class while doling out corporate tax cuts. They out-Conservatived the Conservatives.
It would be immoral for me to cynically vote for someone I don't support in order to defeat someone else I don't support.
The LPC will have to re construct themselves as a party of principle before they will earn another vote from me.
[updated Tue Sep 16 09:28:24 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 09:28
larryl
newly. I don't think I said voting for the NDP would be immoral but that the party has dropped down to the same level as the other two parties. They are now just in it for the money and power just like the others. The Liberals were duped like the rest of the world when the U.S. invaded Afghanistan . They voted with the CPC in order to get a definite date for withdrawing our troops or changing our mission , not to extend it. I don't understand the NDP plan anymore than most don't understand the Green Shift. I do know something has to be done but electing a Harper government will mean nothing gets done. What is better in your opinion ? Dion's plan that is still being improved or Harper's plan of doing nothing. The NDP plan might be better but will never be implemented because Layton can't win.The only immoral thing is to let Harper regain power especially with a majority.Politicians of all stripes say one thing and then do just the opposite . That will continue regardless of who is running. Last question I have is do you believe all Liberals were involved in the corruption or are there some honest people in the party?
[updated Tue Sep 16 10:23:48 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 10:23
Non-aligned in Toronto
Larryl, I didn't even mention corruption. I know there are a lot of honest people who support all parties (yes, even the Cons) for their own reasons.
I think that longer than two terms in power tends to lead to corruption in any government, and even less in the case of the Mulroney PC gov't.
Every party needs to clean house from time to time.
[updated Tue Sep 16 10:38:52 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 10:38
larryl
newly. You want to clean house and let Harper do more damage than we will ever be able to repair. Four more years of doing nothing is not better than doing something that you think is not the best thing that could be done. . Just how badly was a house cleaning needed in Ontario that had P.C.s in power for 35 years. How about Alberta that has had a Tory government for 37 years. If the voters pick the same party for all those years they obviously believe they are doing something right or they are less dangerous than the other guys. They don't have to be in power very long to become corrupt as you said about Lyin Brain. Harris is an even better example with the give away of the 407 and the Bruce Generating station. Privatizing our health care system by the CPC is almost guaranteed if they get a majority. If you can't get the things you want with your vote then you should at least protect the things you have even if you have to hold your nose doing it.
[updated Tue Sep 16 11:14:31 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 11:14
Peter3
If Stephen Harper starts going after the NDP, it will only benefit Mr. Layton, who will be given the stage to go head to head with the PM in a manner that he has never had the opportunity to employ. In recent elections the NDP has been forced to respond to Liberal attacks on its flank, while the Liberals and Conservatives fought the main event. If the PM is going after the NDP explicitly, it is only bad for them if they fail to use the opportunity effectively. Since it seems to be the NDP strategy to go after Mr. Harper head on, they are presumably primed for it.
It is not at all clear that the strategic vote will be in play according to the same formula as previously. Leadership numbers will decide much when those sorts of choices are being made, and that is a serious weakness for the Liberals right now. Early days, for sure, but there are no reasons in any of these numbers for any angst within the NDP camp, and plenty for the Liberals to be concerned about.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:51:28 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:51
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
The lib %'s are hodling up depsite the attacks on Dion.fortunatley he is not slightly or even mortally wounded. he has the cojones to come back and nail Harper right where he needs it.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:59:55 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:59
psiclone
I am sorry but I would suggest returning to the numbers and factor in the leadership stat's and what you see is not good news at all for the Lib's no matter which way you cut it. The trend lines are indicating that if this continues as is within a few weeks we may see a fatal blow to any ambitions that Dion has had and a potential for Jack to become the prefered leader of the oppostion and at this time if the numbers are in line which they just might be you may have a shift of voters who in the past would strategically vote now say what the heck let's make the NDP the offical opposition!
[updated Tue Sep 16 12:21:33 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 12:21
nonpartisan
Non aligned,
there IS a historical shift away from NDP back to the Libs due to strategic voting to stop the Cons. It's not a pipe dream at all, it has been reality. It is the reason the NDP, no matter how high they poll DURING an election campaign seem to go back to that 14% (max) ceiling.
But, there is a difference this time too. And that is in leadership. Can Dion sway the soft NDP voter back like say a well known entity such as Paul Martin? That will depend on how much Canadians warm to Dion or not over the next four weeks. The Libs also have a problem in the fact that Canadian voters have heard the warning so many times that a vote for NDP is a vote for conservative (just because of the frequency of elections), you have to wonder if it will have the same impact. As I've posted here before, it's going to be a crazy ride.
[updated Mon Sep 15 16:59:17 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 16:59
Non-aligned in Toronto
Nonpart: Last election the dippers won 17.6% of the vote, not 14%.
See my response to larryls previous post as to why I and many others on the Centre left won't be voting Liberal this time.
[updated Tue Sep 16 09:32:18 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 09:32
nonpartisan
Mea Culpa, I was speaking more of historical trends than specific elections, though the NDP vote DID soften a bit at the very end in the last election too. The strategy has worked in the past to varying degrees and it will be interesting to watch how it works this time around.
This is, however, not the board for generalizations as I find most people on this board very well informed and for the most part respectful of each other's opinions.
But, now that we're on the subject.....I'm wondering if you have run Nik's numbers through a seat projector? The Hill and Knowlton projection of Nik's breakdown actually has the NDP losing seats. No, I'm not trying to bait you Non-Aligned (you make a SOLID argument for your party of choice). I am just wondering if you think the decent NDP numbers will translate into more seats. Our first past the post system is truly a gift to some and a kick in the butt to others!!!!
[updated Tue Sep 16 19:58:12 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 19:58
Non-aligned in Toronto
Hi Nonpartisan. Whether the NDP will make gains or not is very dependant on the vote split. If the Liberal vote continues to soften, some NDP gains will be made in ridings where there have historically been close three way races. Oshawa, some BC ridings and Atlantic Canada come to mind. Also some ridings that have been close two way races between the Liberals and the NDP, like Beaches-East York and Davenport.
On the other side of the coin, the Ontario numbers for the NDP are soft, while they are making gains in Quebec and other areas. We could see the Dippers gain a couple in Montreal and lose welsewhere.
All depends on the split.
[updated Wed Sep 17 09:21:58 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 09:21
gretag
Non-aligned, why do you favour the NDP cap and trade over the Green Shift? It was rated lower, simply based on environmental factors, by the Sierra Club and I'd be very surprised if one could find a single credible environmental organization that would rate it higher than the Green Shift. It only covers about 50% of all emissions and it cannot be implemented as quickly as one has to set up the carbon market and regulations.
When one factors in economical factors, it fairs even worse. A cap and trade is less efficient overall, which means ultimately it costs consumers more for set reduction in emissions. The price fluctuations put more strain on the economy and makes it more difficult to protect low-income families from the increased costs.
Then there is Layton's dishonest messaging on carbon pricing where he likes to pretend that cap and trade doesn't cost consumers and carbon tax does. Layton has given up a lot on the environmental front in this election, leaving this to the Green Party and Liberals.
[updated Wed Sep 17 06:27:10 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 06:27
Non-aligned in Toronto
Carbon markets are already being set up all over the world. In addition you can't take the environmental question in a vacuum. Carbon taxes are consumer based and the emitters simply pass on the taxes that they face. Consumers will simply end up applying their tax cuts to paying higher prices for the energy they consume, resulting in little net effect on GHG emissions, while contributing to inflation. Look as you will at the Green Shift plan and you will not find benchmarks and targets of emission reduction.
Cap and Trade puts hard caps on emissions, penalizes those companies that fail to meet the caps and rewards those who do. This gives a competitive advantage to companies that reduce their Carbon footprint allowing them to sell their product at a cost that forces the non compliant companies to get in line or fail.
[updated Wed Sep 17 09:29:15 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 09:29
fortescue
Its interesting where are all htese conservatives? No one in this thread is, yet the poll says 4 in 10 canadians would vote for Harper? Just wondering?
[updated Mon Sep 15 17:24:39 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 17:24
Foxer
This thread has been up for a few hours only fortescue :)
Was there something specific you'd like?
[updated Mon Sep 15 17:31:39 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 17:31
Ha. Ha. I like your wit (most of the time). Interesting stuff here re Mr. Harper going after Mr. Layton to whose benefit and where the ABH voters will finally park. Is Mr. Harper right in affording Mr. Layton such prominence and that dismissive of the Liberals?
[updated Mon Sep 15 18:36:24 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 18:36
gretag
It is only to Harper's benefit to try to split votes between opposition parties as equally as possible to help him squeak through in some swing ridings, so it makes sense for him to try to boost Layton.
In Harper's supposed attack on Layton he said that the NDP addressed the "needs of real people and not some theoretical schemes". In other words, Harper is still attacking Dion and the Green Shift, but trying to do it in such a way as to bring recognition to Layton. It remains to be seen whether this will boost NDP fortunes as Harper hopes.
Harper also said he would attack the Greens, but I haven't seen anything yet. This might be more complicated for Harper, because while he would like Green votes (provided they don't come from potential Conservative voters) he will want to attack their environmental plan for real (unlike with the NDP) as it overlaps with the Liberals.
[updated Mon Sep 15 19:03:12 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 19:03
Foxer
Well that's more or less correct gretag. In attacking the NDP he's attacking the NDP as well as the libs, suggesting the libs are not worth the time anymore.
It will have slightly different effects in different ridings, but harper's betting it's a positive effect. Of course - he runs the risk that the libs really will collapse and that the ndp will show up much stronger than he expected in some key areas. But - there's always a risk in politics :)
[updated Mon Sep 15 20:15:14 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 20:15
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
If Haper attacks the NDP he will for sure be helping the Libs. Layton is sitting on a keg of dynamite with the Greens running right up along side him now. His votes will slip towards the Libs if the soft NDP vote leaves.
[updated Mon Sep 15 21:18:24 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 21:18
gretag
I don't agree. Anyone who might vote NDP isn't going to be turned off from the NDP by Harper saying something negative. In any case, if you look at what Harper actually says about the NDP - he says their policies sound good, they are focused on concerns of real people, but they cost too much -- it almost reads like an NDP ad. It gives them more attention and makes it look like he views the NDP as the real opposition. The NDP could then play this up with talk of Liberal abstentions.
I think the strategy in principle makes sense for the Conservatives (try to split the non-CPC vote more) but it seems so contrived and obvious I am not sure who buys it. Of course, almost everything the CPC puts out, from their ads, their websites, Harper's screw or insane talk and such, sounds juvenile to me, so they are obviously aimed at some other group.
[updated Mon Sep 15 22:01:19 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 22:01
Bernie
gretag
Harper is trying very amateurish psychology. He did the same thing in saying he didn't think he would receive a majority. Silly really.
Maybe it works on those who don't know the difference.
If the race was seen close in my district I would vote strategically to try to keep Harper out. Since I'm sure the Liberal will win here, I will be voting Green.
[updated Tue Sep 16 07:31:55 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 07:31
Foxer
Heh. :) well bernie, if you think it's 'amatureish' then you're not a very sophisticated student of human nature, marketing, or politics.
It's subtle, and it's effective. The fact is, the more the focus remains on harper and latyon, the more voters will tend to focus on those two platforms. That makes it a harper/layton choice and highlights the fact the libs have absolutely no real 'platform' - they're just randomly saying things they think people will like.
That will tend to polerize the vote. It MAY lead to vote splitting, and there's a decent chance it'll help the ndp, but the real effect is to place a contrast between harper and others, so that voters see it as a real choice between party platforms that's clear. THe lefties will tend to go left, the right will tend to go right, and people will actually get out and vote. Harper needs people to care, and to do that he's got to contrast himself against someone with a real election platform, not just a bunch of rambling. He's already contrast himself against the green plan, and that's the only 'plan' the liberals are showing so far, the rest are just sort of vague promises that don't really do much (we'll have a fish committee says dion. What the hell does that actually MEAN? What will it do? how do you contrast yourself against stuff no one understands? ).
He's effectively contrasting himself to the bloc, but the liberal campaign is just too mushy. So - comparing himself to layton who seems to actually have a stratagy, and one that's very different than harpers, is more effective in motivating voters to make a choice.
if it happens to cause vote split or happens to benefit jack, that may be a minor side bonus. But the real benefit is comparing and contrasting platforms with someone who actually has one to force voters to choose.
[updated Tue Sep 16 13:09:23 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 13:09
Peter3
Where exactly do we see the Greens running right up alondside the NDP? If the Green vote is hurting anybody, it seems to be the Liberal Party, with some regional differences of course.
We are now exactly four weeks from election day. The Liberal Party has shown a glimmer of life over the last 48 hours, but is running out of time to get back in the game. Mr. Harper has calculated that talking about the Liberal platform only helps them get out a message that they have been unable to communicate themselves. Ignoring Mr. Dion will work just fine, as long as he is unable to get his own issues across to voters in an understandable manner. Mr. Layton will be thrilled to be able to go head to head with the Prime Minister.
If, as seems to be the case, the Liberal shadow cabinet is about to be turned loose to fire at will, you can be sure that Mr. Harper will notice and start returning fire as soon as they start scoring hits.
I'm just dying to see whether Mr. Dion does the math and comes to the cocnclusion that he has to go after his friend, Ms. May. She is hurting him, and he has yet to play the strategic vote card on her. You have to know that he is getting pessure from his own caucus to get those votes back.
[updated Tue Sep 16 13:34:20 EDT 2008]
16 Sep 13:34
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
don't worry fortescue...the tory brown shirts are never far away.
[updated Mon Sep 15 18:24:33 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 18:24
elf
sorry but I think you'll find when it comes to the crunch and Jack is still at 16 % the ' undecided ' will park their votes with the Libs ( even if they have to hold their noses ) in order to keep the CONs from getting a majority
[updated Mon Sep 15 18:44:47 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 18:44
Hewlett
With a 1 percent shift really nothing has changed. It's still in the margin of error.
[updated Mon Sep 15 19:11:11 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 19:11
tdot416
It's interesting to see the liberal numbers are able to sustain the constant body blows that Harper is throwing at them (and also how little all of the gaff's Harper's team had last week, doesnt seem to be having much impact on the numbers). If the Liberals decide to start ramping up the negative advertising, things could get a lot closer. The Liberals could be looking total wash if Harper gets over 40%, this could send them into the political wilderness for many many years to come, why are they holding back?
Also interesting to see the fed Liberals creep back into the Quebec landscape, I think if the Liberals are able to stick around 23-25% of the vote in Quebec, they will be able to win back a few of the seats they lost in 2006 with the colapse of the Bloc vote in some of the 514 ridings (Papineau/Jeanne LeBer), Outremont, not much Conservative chances on the island of Montreal), the Conservative gains in Quebec will be able to offset the loses in NFLD and I'm thinking, maybe 2-3 in the maritimes and 4-5 in BC.
Basically, Nik's numbers are going to send us back to another minority, less Bloc, more Conservative in Quebec, which is always a good thing and a few seat trades across the country. Or I could be wrong, and the Left Wing splitting is going to allow Harper to walk into a majority with his eyes closed, sorta like the Chretien days?
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:00:15 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:00
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Peter3
If the numbers for Quebec are anything close to accurate, this election may be about to head off in directions never explored by the Canadian electorate before.
Jack Layton must be pretty pumped about what the numbers are showing. He's a long way from winning anything, but his party seems to have a real chance to make a major move in Quebec that has the potential to alter the face of national politics.
It's interesting that the three main national parties are all essentially at the same level of support they enjoyed in 2006, but that the distribution of support has apparently changed significantly.
[updated Mon Sep 15 15:34:39 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 15:34
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
We need to start a "debate" thread. I'll go first.
Subject: The Economy
Q: Mr. Harper, you are an avowed believer in free enterprise and markets and wanted Canada to go to war against Iraq. You appear very attached to the Republican party's position on issues of deregulation, privatization, spending, taxation and their close relationship with the military/security/industrial complex.
Most Canadians can see that,"The emperor has no clothes?" Why can't you?
A. Mr. Dion is not a leader.
[updated Mon Sep 15 19:21:24 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 19:21
45 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.