CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 31, NDP 18, GP 9, BQ 6 (ending September 14)

Our CPAC-Nanos tracking shows a statistical tie in Canada’s two most populous provinces for the second consecutive night. Nationally, the Conservatives lead and Harper enjoys a significant leadership advantage, however the story after week one of the campaign is the decline in support for the Bloc. With all three federalist parties gaining ground in Quebec the campaigns will be battling hard to pick up former Bloc voters.

Our most current wave of tracking (completed September 14th) shows the Conservatives hold a six point advantage over the Liberals, nationally, among decided voters (CP - 37%, Lib - 31%, NDP - 18%, GP - 9%, BQ - 6%). The Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a statistical tie in Quebec for the second consecutive night (CP and Bloc - 26% each, Lib - 23%). The spread between the Liberals and Conservatives within the Atlantic provinces is within the margin of accuracy for the research (Lib - 40%, CP- 34%). In Ontario the Tories (37%) and Grits (35%) are tied while the Tories continue to lead the Liberals by 16 points in Western Canada.

On the best PM front, one third (34%) of Canadians chose Stephen Harper as the best Prime Minister, 16 points ahead of Jack Layton (18%). Stephane Dion remains in third, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe (Best PM - Harper - 34%, Layton - 18%, Dion - 14%, May - 4%, Duceppe - 4%, None - 9% and Undecided - 18%).

The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Stephen Harper out front of the other party leaders with an overnight score of 96 points compared to Jack Layton’s 48 and Stephane Dion’s 45 point scores. Elizabeth May received a score of 18 points followed by Gilles Duceppe at 12 points overall.

Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.

Methodology and Results A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 13, 2008.

Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)

Committed Voters - Canada (N=961, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)

• Conservative Party 37% (-1)
• Liberal Party 31% (+1)
• NDP 18% (+1)
• Green Party 9% (NC)
• BQ 6% (NC)
• Undecided 20% (-1)

Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

• Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (-2)
• NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (NC)
• Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (+1)
• Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (+1)
• Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
• None of them 9% (NC)
• Unsure 18% (NC)

Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:

• The most trustworthy leader
• The most competent leader
• The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future

[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

• Stephen Harper 96 (-6)
• Jack Layton 48 (-5)
• Stephane Dion 45 (+3)
• Elizabeth May 18 (+4)
• Gilles Duceppe 12 (+2)

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

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