The latest results of the CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking (completed September 13th) shows the Conservatives remain eight points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters (CP 38%, Lib 30%, NDP 17%, GP 9%, BQ 6%).
Results in Quebec show a statistical three way tie between the Conservatives (29%), Bloc (26%) and Liberals (24%). Looking at the results in other regions of the country the Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical dead heat in both the Atlantic region (CP 38%, Lib 36%) and Ontario (CP 37%, Lib (36%). In Western Canada the Tories currently hold a 19 point lead on the Liberals (CP 46%, Lib 27%).
On the best PM front 36% of Canadians identified Stephen Harper as their choice for best Prime Minister, 18 points ahead of Jack Layton at 18%. Stephane Dion ranked third overall, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe (Best PM - Harper 36%, Layton 18%, Dion 13%, May 3%, Duceppe 3%, None 9% and Undecided 18%).
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Stephen Harper bounced back from yesterday’s drop in his Leadership Index Score, picking up 13 points to stand at 102 points overall. Jack Layton remains in second place with a Leadership Index score of 53 points (+2 over yesterday). Stephane Dion’s score remains unchanged at 42 points. Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe followed with Leadership Index scores of 14 and 10 points respectively.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live tonight at 7 pm (eastern) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at www.nanosresearch.com
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 12, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=953, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 38% (NC)
- Liberal Party 30% (NC)
- NDP 17% (+2)
- BQ 6% (-3)
- Green Party 9% (+1)
- Undecided 21% (+1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 36% (-2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 13% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 3% (-2)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 9% (+1)
- Unsure 18% (+2)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
Leadership Index Score (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 102 (+13)
- Jack Layton 53 (+2)
- Stephane Dion 42 (NC)
- Elizabeth May 14 (+1)
- Gilles Duceppe 10 (-2)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard.
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
I like your analysis on soft voters...noting 60% are up for grabs. That is a ve... more
Ken Chapman (Alberta) 14 Sep 16:16
Things are levelling out and the Tories now need to be worried because they had ... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 14 Sep 15:31
Nik, This is one part of the poll where accuracy seems to break down in the sh... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 14 Sep 16:06
Ronald, You know as well as I do that the Libs are from from dead here. I just c... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 14 Sep 18:27
QUESTION for Nik, As always your numbers are fascinating. My question is this... more
nonpartisan (Ontario) 14 Sep 16:45
rotflao, I just love listening to Liberals lie to each other, you have no idea... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 14 Sep 21:54
Comments
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Things are levelling out and the Tories now need to be worried because they had such a big jump on the other parties just before the election call came. At 38% which will not hold up they now must focus on their own ridings and not so much on the target ones. My guess is that the cons vote is getting ready to soften.
[updated Sun Sep 14 15:31:51 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 15:31
17 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Nik,
This is one part of the poll where accuracy seems to break down in the short term. I don't believe the BQ has slipped 3% overnight and the NDP moved up by that 3%.
Can you put a better explanation to that move?
[updated Sun Sep 14 16:06:21 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 16:06
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
I like your analysis on soft voters...noting 60% are up for grabs. That is a very significant insight and a large number. I blogged on it today Nik. Thx for the great work. www.ken-chapman.blogspot.com
[updated Sun Sep 14 16:16:04 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 16:16
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
nonpartisan
QUESTION for Nik,
As always your numbers are fascinating. My question is this....
What is your analysis about how much the leadership question is actually translating into VOTES. I'm sure the reason I ask is obvious. Mr. Harper's leadership numbers are so huge compared to anyone else, but the lead of his party is not nearly as large in comparison. Mr. Dion's leadership numbers are in the toilet as it were, but the party numbers aren't following the same dramatic decrease. And Mr. Layton's leadership numbers are actually doubling what his party support numbers are. So???? What are we left to conclude from that? That leadership is not the ballot question? I'm sorry if you've answered this on CPAC already, I haven't had time to tune in.
[updated Sun Sep 14 16:45:18 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 16:45
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gretag
Good questions and I look forward to Nik's answers too.
Meanwhile, it does seem that if Dion could boost his leadership numbers the Liberals would likely see a rise. The Conservatives and NDP are probably doing as well as they can on leadership, so this is only an issue for the Liberals.
[updated Sun Sep 14 17:03:17 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 17:03
nonpartisan
Perhaps. I do wonder even if Dion went up in leadership numbers, it wouldn't be the same trend as Layton is seeing, "I like him better than i did, but I won't vote for him."
Seems to me Harper is suffering the same fate.
Dion on the ohter hand is suffering from "I don't like him much, but I'll vote for him because i think the alternative is worse."
Understanding that the blogs are not scientific polls or analysis, I've noticed two types of leadership comments: the partisan (follower the leader no matter what he/she says or does) and the disgruntled (can't stand any of them).
I think this is going to be a VERY interesting election with a real potential to be volatile vote swings from day to day. Just take a look at Hill and Knowlton's election predictor. It runs ALL the polls through a seat projector and just based on polls in the last few days, predicts everything from a massive tory majority to not much of a shift in seats at all. That says to me there are many, many ridings that are extremely close. Combine all that with Nik's projection that 60% of the vote is soft and swayable and you have a recipe for anything to happen.
Buckle up, it might just be a crazy ride! .
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:03:17 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 18:03
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I think the crazy ride scenario is more likely. The fact that the cons are still runnng dion attack ads means they are still very afraid of him. Dion is very very intelligent and has the "cojones" to stick it right back at Harper when the timing is right.
The undecideds and those who may switch are, in many cases,waiting for the Libs to show some leadership. Its coming and coming hard. Hold on for the ride. This far from being Harper's election.
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:14:18 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 18:14
Regina Beach Boy
""The fact that the cons are still runnng dion attack ads means they are still very afraid of him.""
Right!! lol
[updated Sun Sep 14 21:59:26 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 21:59
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Just like you also are apparently.......is that the best answer you could dream up?
[updated Mon Sep 15 00:45:19 -0400 2008]
15 Sep 00:45
RonaldODowd
I'll keep it short and sweet:
-the CPC is stalled;
-the LPC has levelled out;
-the NDP has the clear momentum of the campaign and is rising steadily;
-the UNDECIDED are rising -- not a good sign for the government;
If progressive voters follow their usual pattern, that will eventually be bad news for the NDP. And even if they do, they may not be able to make enough of a stand to stop Harper. My money is still on a CPC minority government with very few gains in terms of seats.
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:16:26 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 18:16
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
Re: The U.S. Election
I've flipflopped again. (Just call me Dion or Harper!). I think McCain made a serious error in selecting Sarah Palin. Even though Charlie got the question wrong about the Bush doctrine, Sarah looked like the deer in the headlights as panic set upon her face for several frozen seconds.
Sarah needs to know that Georgia is not a NATO member and will never be (thanks to the European members). She is a short-term gain among women for long-term pain for McCain as women take off the blinders and see her for what she is -- an extreme right-winger who does not even favour the three (3) abortion exceptions. Simply incredible that McCain could be that misguided. I now predict a close finish with a win for Obama/Biden.
[updated Sun Sep 14 19:01:29 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 19:01
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gretag
Nik, have you done a "nasty" rating on the leaders as well? CTV is reporting one from SC.
I notice Strategic Council found a strong correlation between who people rated as the nastiest leader and the ratings you find as the best leader.
I wonder if one would find a similar strong correlation between nastiest leader and most trustworthy leader? And what does this all mean?
[updated Mon Sep 15 08:02:52 -0400 2008]
15 Sep 08:02
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
JOfromTO
Nik On CPAC Sunday Night
I was intrigued that you mentioned on Goldhawk Live that for the first time in your federal polling experience, that there are statistical ties or three or even four-way races across three of the four regions, with only one party with a "fortress-base", that being the Conservatives in Western Canada. Does this mean a minority government is still the most likely outcome of this election, or due to the Conservatives being the only major party with a strong regional base, they will win a majority due to their competitiveness in other regions outside their base?
[updated Mon Sep 15 10:57:36 -0400 2008]
15 Sep 10:57
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.