The latest results of the CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking (completed September 13th) shows the Conservatives remain eight points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters (CP 38%, Lib 30%, NDP 17%, GP 9%, BQ 6%).
Results in Quebec show a statistical three way tie between the Conservatives (29%), Bloc (26%) and Liberals (24%). Looking at the results in other regions of the country the Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical dead heat in both the Atlantic region (CP 38%, Lib 36%) and Ontario (CP 37%, Lib (36%). In Western Canada the Tories currently hold a 19 point lead on the Liberals (CP 46%, Lib 27%).
On the best PM front 36% of Canadians identified Stephen Harper as their choice for best Prime Minister, 18 points ahead of Jack Layton at 18%. Stephane Dion ranked third overall, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe (Best PM - Harper 36%, Layton 18%, Dion 13%, May 3%, Duceppe 3%, None 9% and Undecided 18%).
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Stephen Harper bounced back from yesterday’s drop in his Leadership Index Score, picking up 13 points to stand at 102 points overall. Jack Layton remains in second place with a Leadership Index score of 53 points (+2 over yesterday). Stephane Dion’s score remains unchanged at 42 points. Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe followed with Leadership Index scores of 14 and 10 points respectively.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live tonight at 7 pm (eastern) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at www.nanosresearch.com
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 12, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=953, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 38% (NC)
- Liberal Party 30% (NC)
- NDP 17% (+2)
- BQ 6% (-3)
- Green Party 9% (+1)
- Undecided 21% (+1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 36% (-2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 18% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 13% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 3% (-2)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 9% (+1)
- Unsure 18% (+2)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
Leadership Index Score (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 102 (+13)
- Jack Layton 53 (+2)
- Stephane Dion 42 (NC)
- Elizabeth May 14 (+1)
- Gilles Duceppe 10 (-2)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard.
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
I like your analysis on soft voters...noting 60% are up for grabs. That is a ve... more
Ken Chapman (Alberta) 14 Sep 16:16
Things are levelling out and the Tories now need to be worried because they had ... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 14 Sep 15:31
Nik, This is one part of the poll where accuracy seems to break down in the sh... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 14 Sep 16:06
Ronald, You know as well as I do that the Libs are from from dead here. I just c... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 14 Sep 18:27
QUESTION for Nik, As always your numbers are fascinating. My question is this... more
nonpartisan (Ontario) 14 Sep 16:45
rotflao, I just love listening to Liberals lie to each other, you have no idea... more
Regina Beach Boy (Saskatchewan) 14 Sep 21:54
Comments
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Things are levelling out and the Tories now need to be worried because they had such a big jump on the other parties just before the election call came. At 38% which will not hold up they now must focus on their own ridings and not so much on the target ones. My guess is that the cons vote is getting ready to soften.
[updated Sun Sep 14 15:31:51 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 15:31
17 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Geez, I hope so. A lot of we ABH voters are pretty despondent right now. We need a PM who has good judgment, not someone who would recklessly commit our troops and good name to fruitless American wars. We need a leader who has a vision to protect the planet and future generations, not someone who has his head firmly stuck in the (tar)sand(s). We need a leader willing to delegate to a competent team, not a bullying, control freak. We need a leader we can trust, not a proven neocon ideologue not bothered by the facts.
[updated Sun Sep 14 15:58:27 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 15:58
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Don't be despondent...Harper can and will be defeated. don't forget who his allies are. The exreme right wing and Jack Layton with his inflated ego. Tell everyone you know that voting liberal this time is simply to stop Harper in his tracks. Volunteer in your riding to canvass people and put up a big Liberal sign.
[updated Sun Sep 14 16:04:45 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 16:04
gretag
Everyone I know is already voting Liberal and look at these polls!
Okay, I exaggerate, but of the few dozen people I talk to (in real life) about voting, the only ones changing their vote this time from last time are changing to the Liberals. But look where it gets us.
These numbers are exactly where we were in the 2006 election, but with a bit of Bloc going to the Conservatives and Greens. Isn't that where we have been for ever?
[updated Sun Sep 14 16:23:03 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 16:23
RonaldODowd
TPQ,
You sure don't sound like your worried...I think they heard your same message on the Titanic. Remember, the truth will set you free. Harper is center-right, not extreme right. Jack is a great guy -- he just happens to be incredibly inconvenient for Liberals right now. Hence, the panic in some Liberals ranks quickly followed by a haphazard band of Liberal picketers at NDP events...
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:03:43 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 18:03
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Ronald, You know as well as I do that the Libs are from from dead here. I just came from the opening of two Lib riding offices and in both cases they had a former Green party candidate now working for us including one who siphoned off enough votes last election to make it scary for our candidate. Those few 1000's of votes are now coming our way because the Green have all but abandoned these two ridings from what I heard today. There is more of that going on than in Ontario you would see in Quebec. The Greens essentially are willing to help with an ABH movement in many ridings the Libs can win or have targetted by simply laying down their arms. Layton has sort of made his bed with the cons in order to try and climb over the Libs. The greens are going to target just about every NDP riding looking for green type votes to bring them closer to the Dippers. Layton is not watching his back due to his overinflated ego and will be surprised at what a kick in the ass may await him.
The libs have decided to secure their base and firm up the undecideds in the early goings as these and the soft votes are still up for grabs. They are very well orgnized in the ridings I'm aware of and in some tight ridings they have plans to bring in outside help with things. Phase two will see a full frontal attack on Harper and this will moderate his numbers much as he has done to the Libs. The libs have more to gain at this point in time as soft voters are typically left of center.
It will get interesting and slightly more nasty leading up to the debate and then it will get very very nasty right up to election day is how I see it unfolding.
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:27:32 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 18:27
RonaldODowd
TPQ,
I fully agree with you. This will be the nastiest federal campaign ever.
That is not my brand of Conservatism and I hope the other parties in addition to my own with think twice about this downward spiral in civility.
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:35:17 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 18:35
gretag
Neither of us think much of these "leadership" type questions, but probably there is a message in there.
I've met Dion and think he would be a great Prime Minister, but then I have also read scientific reports on climate change, the Congressional Budget Office reports on carbon pricing (they strongly support a tax over cap and trade) and I actually prefer politicians who give honest answers, with real explanations and arguments that I can understand. Most voters are basing their answers on something different.
If the Liberals could figure a way to boost the perception of Dion's leadership it seems clear their polling numbers would increase. That seems to be the key. I'd hate to see Dion turn into your usual lying politician, but there should be some way to "sell" him without doing that. In person, speaking and taking questions from large crowds, he has come across as sincere, intelligent, committed and willing to say what he thinks. Either few Canadians want this or that part of Dion doesn't translate into the media.
However, the results of the seemingly inane leadership questions should not be ignored. Meanwhile, if Nik were willing to ask a question on which party had the best team, I wonder if the breakdown would be different.
[updated Sun Sep 14 16:40:07 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 16:40
RonaldODowd
gretag,
Let's face it. People vote for the man, as regrettable as that may be in a parliamentary system. Harper is perceived as strong -- Dion as weak. That may very well change or it may not.
Dion has to prove himself while Harper has to avoid going overboard with his strong personality. The first one who makes a major mistake is finished in politics.
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:07:46 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 18:07
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Once Harper comes under attack for many things including his hidden agenda which is something he can only deny but not defend things will get short tempered with him.
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:29:41 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 18:29
RonaldODowd
TPQ,
The hidden agenda didn't work last time (when we had no track record in government leading people to fear the worst) and it won't work this time either now that we have a moderate Conservative track record as a government.
If Liberals use this as their primary avenue of attack, they will go nowhere. Trying to scare the voters simply won't cut the mustard...
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:42:09 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 18:42
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Roanld, having 60% of voters either undecided or soft on their party of choice tells me and others that they don't trust Harper and many do believe he has a hidden right wing agenda to put forth if he wins a majority.
The libs couldn't make it fly last time because they were seriously weighed down with Adscam and had to keep fighting that effort. Dion will bring it up often but won't necessarily make it a centerpiece of his campaign. That will continue to sow doubt in Harper much like his attacks ads do to Dion. Tit for tat as they say.
[updated Sun Sep 14 20:18:07 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 20:18
Regina Beach Boy
rotflao,
I just love listening to Liberals lie to each other, you have no idea how funny and out to lunch you sound !!!!!.
[updated Sun Sep 14 21:54:55 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 21:54
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
well you may simply have taken too much sun as your knwledge hasn't exactly shone through. If they are lies please tell me how you know that. that is a typical arrogant con answer by the way.
[updated Sun Sep 14 22:05:35 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 22:05
gretag
Ronald, at some point this election may start to be about issues. Right now it is focussed on personalities, but I doubt Harper can keep it there for another 4 weeks.
Things will be different depending on whether Harper or Dion is PM, and they will be different on policies, some of them far-reaching. I think Canadians will want to know what this election is really about before heading to the polls.
So perhaps at some point in the election Nik's questions on perception of personalities will change to questions on key issues.
[updated Mon Sep 15 05:47:47 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 05:47
elf
actully Jack's new ads are showing people the true Harper and I think they may be helpng the Liberals more than jack !!
[updated Mon Sep 15 10:58:46 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 10:58
elf
hear hear !! this swing by voters to desire a bully for PM is really bothering me - what's with people these days ? why support anyone who ridicules intellect and good sense - why can't people see that we need to respect those with a different point of viiew. I would like to be proud of my PM and know he will use good judgement - Mr Dion would return respect to the office of PM and I just don't understand this mentality.
[updated Mon Sep 15 11:09:15 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 11:09
larryl
Elf. The answer is simple really. You are a woman and politics is predominently a man's game . That means win at all cost regardless of ethics and accountability. We do all sorts of things and then think we can just say sorry and all will be forgiven. Of course women have to accept some of the blame since they brought us up without much input from males who are too busy earning money.
[updated Mon Sep 15 12:24:40 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 12:24
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Nik,
This is one part of the poll where accuracy seems to break down in the short term. I don't believe the BQ has slipped 3% overnight and the NDP moved up by that 3%.
Can you put a better explanation to that move?
[updated Sun Sep 14 16:06:21 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 16:06
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I like your analysis on soft voters...noting 60% are up for grabs. That is a very significant insight and a large number. I blogged on it today Nik. Thx for the great work. www.ken-chapman.blogspot.com
[updated Sun Sep 14 16:16:04 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 16:16
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
nonpartisan
QUESTION for Nik,
As always your numbers are fascinating. My question is this....
What is your analysis about how much the leadership question is actually translating into VOTES. I'm sure the reason I ask is obvious. Mr. Harper's leadership numbers are so huge compared to anyone else, but the lead of his party is not nearly as large in comparison. Mr. Dion's leadership numbers are in the toilet as it were, but the party numbers aren't following the same dramatic decrease. And Mr. Layton's leadership numbers are actually doubling what his party support numbers are. So???? What are we left to conclude from that? That leadership is not the ballot question? I'm sorry if you've answered this on CPAC already, I haven't had time to tune in.
[updated Sun Sep 14 16:45:18 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 16:45
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
I'll keep it short and sweet:
-the CPC is stalled;
-the LPC has levelled out;
-the NDP has the clear momentum of the campaign and is rising steadily;
-the UNDECIDED are rising -- not a good sign for the government;
If progressive voters follow their usual pattern, that will eventually be bad news for the NDP. And even if they do, they may not be able to make enough of a stand to stop Harper. My money is still on a CPC minority government with very few gains in terms of seats.
[updated Sun Sep 14 18:16:26 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 18:16
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
Re: The U.S. Election
I've flipflopped again. (Just call me Dion or Harper!). I think McCain made a serious error in selecting Sarah Palin. Even though Charlie got the question wrong about the Bush doctrine, Sarah looked like the deer in the headlights as panic set upon her face for several frozen seconds.
Sarah needs to know that Georgia is not a NATO member and will never be (thanks to the European members). She is a short-term gain among women for long-term pain for McCain as women take off the blinders and see her for what she is -- an extreme right-winger who does not even favour the three (3) abortion exceptions. Simply incredible that McCain could be that misguided. I now predict a close finish with a win for Obama/Biden.
[updated Sun Sep 14 19:01:29 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 19:01
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gretag
Nik, have you done a "nasty" rating on the leaders as well? CTV is reporting one from SC.
I notice Strategic Council found a strong correlation between who people rated as the nastiest leader and the ratings you find as the best leader.
I wonder if one would find a similar strong correlation between nastiest leader and most trustworthy leader? And what does this all mean?
[updated Mon Sep 15 08:02:52 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 08:02
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JOfromTO
Nik On CPAC Sunday Night
I was intrigued that you mentioned on Goldhawk Live that for the first time in your federal polling experience, that there are statistical ties or three or even four-way races across three of the four regions, with only one party with a "fortress-base", that being the Conservatives in Western Canada. Does this mean a minority government is still the most likely outcome of this election, or due to the Conservatives being the only major party with a strong regional base, they will win a majority due to their competitiveness in other regions outside their base?
[updated Mon Sep 15 10:57:36 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 10:57
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