CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 30, NDP 15, BQ 9, GP 8 (ending September 12)

Nik,

Here's an amateur's take on the national results:

After three (3) days of the rolling poll, the Conservatives (my party) are holding firm. It is too early to say that we are stalled -- and great news that we are not moving downward.

The Liberals seem to be in a slow free-fall, an ominous sign that should have Liberal strategists worried. They have to stop the bleeding, and fast.

The NDP certainly has the momentum of the campaign. If they continue to move, they will increase their seat total substantially -- Jack's PM strategy may be gaining traction but I don't see them gaining fifteen points to match and/or overtake the Liberals. Not in the cards for this election, IMHO...

Finally, I'll be looking for signs of 2004 again: if the NDP continues to gain ground in the campaign, I will be looking for a Stop Harper movement. If it manifests itself, the NDP vote will collapse like a house of cards and the Liberals will suddenly be in contention again. Granted, it's still a long shot but theoretically possible. As I've said before, this election is Harper's to win, or to lose.

[updated Sat Sep 13 14:55:44 EDT 2008]

re: >Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
>The most trustworthy leader
>The most competent leader
>The leader with the best vision for Canada's future
I really think these attributes should be separated, For instance, I think Elizabeth May (1) and Dion(2) are the most trustworthy and EM has the best vision for Canada.

[updated Sat Sep 13 16:07:21 EDT 2008]

nik. I would love to see a poll with any other prominent Liberal such as Dryden replacing Dion . Would the numbers change drastically in the Liberals favor since the voters just don't like Dion . Of course the opinions of most are based on two years of CPC attacks adds. If these polls are accurate could Dion seeing a sure a majority for Harper fall on his sword to save the country and resign? A leaderless Liberal party after Martin announced his resignation was polling much higher than after Dion won.

[updated Sat Sep 13 17:29:05 EDT 2008]

Looks like Layton is recovering from the mistake he made in opposing Green participating in the leaders debate. If he would have been magnanimous and said "sure, let Lizzie debate so she can explain to the 650,000 who voted for Green last election why she has crawled into bed with Dion (figuratively of course) the dippers would be hovering over 20% right now.

[updated Sat Sep 13 17:44:18 EDT 2008]

Nik,
Do tell (a) what percentage of each party's committed voters will actually vote, and (b) how will the undecided voters redistribute themselves on judgment day?

[updated Sat Sep 13 20:42:18 EDT 2008]

As Nik's and other pollster’s numbers now confirm there is a trend toward a Tory majority occurring. After looking at each riding IMHO if a vote were held today we would see a Tory majority of about 169 to 176 seats. That said it is still very early on in the election and anything could happen. If the wheels come off the Tory campaign we could see that reduced to a minority overnight but that is unlikely to happen as it seems that they have the “bugs” ironed out after week one.

I note the panic in Dion’s voice as he switches to the tried and true Liberal strategy of trying to scare Canadians into voting for them. It will fail for Four very good reasons – One, voters are wise to them and just don’t believe them anymore, Two, they are more afraid of Dion and his Green Shaft than any Tory policy, Three, They like the PM and the good govt they have received over the past two plus years and Four, Dion is just not a scary guy.

I also expect that Layton will soon switch tactics from attacking the Tories and set his sights on the Grits. His strategy of ignoring Dion and presenting himself as the only other choice for PM is not working. If he keeps it up he risks looking foolish in the eyes of voters so he needs to focus on trying to become Leader of the Opposition by presenting himself more as an alternative to Dion than Harper. This is the tactic Duceppe is employing in Quebec and time will tell if it is effective in bleeding off Liberal and to some extent NDP votes in Quebec? Layton will also have to go after May (and Duceppe) sometime before the debates because he knows that they and the Liberals are after the same voter demographics as the NDP.

[updated Sun Sep 14 08:46:57 EDT 2008]

Adfter one week into the campaign it looks like the Conservatives are at the border of majority territory. If he can hold onto that position Harper will he celebrating.
Anything can happen in a month and there is no way of predicting what may occur in the meantime.
As I've said before, I don't put much sigificance in polls, but this seems to reflect the mood of Canadians at this time. Only time will tell whether it will be the same on Oct.14.

Of course I'll be praying for something to happen. A Harper majority government would be disasterous for those Canadians who are in the lowest 25% of the population economically. Harper is only interested in serving the interests of the top 25%.
If Harper does get his majority I hope I won't have to remind those who vote for him that I told you so.

I've been following politics since the days of Louis St Laurant. To me Harper is the worse political leader of any party that I can recall.
He is the most untrustworthy and he has the worst vision for Canada's future. He may have a degree of competentcy but only for those he represents; that is, the Canadian branch of the American corporations.

By his own definition he is, as Premier Williams said, a fraud.

None of the other parties would hurt or damage Canada. Harper can and I believe he will.

[updated Sun Sep 14 08:54:03 EDT 2008]

Rolling poll results change every day but if only 400 people are added on the third day and they account for the changes seen, why would we put any credence in this poll. Every four people who change their mind affect 1% of the poll. Twenty people skew the numbers by 5%. I prefer to look at this site as a better method of judging how the voters cast their ballots. Since the campaign started so many new posters have joined us that I can't keep track. This is clearly an indication people are taking an interest in the campaign and will become more informed about party policies.I like new opinions to consider so keep them coming. Of course if the 400 new interviews are really new then at the end of 30 days Nik will have polled 12,000 people so by keeping all their responses will let us see a much clearer picture of how the election will turn out. I doubt the other polls are any better than the rolling type here even if they use a larger number of respondents in their calculations. What do you think?

[updated Sun Sep 14 10:15:15 EDT 2008]

Extrapolating these popular vote numbers, what would the seat distribution by party look like across the country? it seems to me that rich-seat Ontario and Quebec might suggest a different weighting in terms of over-all support for each party in terms of projected seat count. What about a question on those who would support a majority government, specified or not, and those who would vote strategically and for which party to avoid a majority government? I suspect strategic voting will kick in during the last two weeks of the campaign incrementally. I also think a question on the basis for voting would be good too: on the basis of a given party's policies, campaign promises, credibility of the party's leader, or the credibility and policies of the local candidate. Looking at the weighting in such a configuation would be indeed interesting.

[updated Sun Sep 14 10:37:27 EDT 2008]

I'm not sure anyone here has understood the questions I'm asking. I see nothing unusual about my suggestions on strategic voting and the basis on which one would vote. The information could be useful. And, surely, Nik has statistics on the popular vote broken down by province. So if the Conservatives have 37% of the popular vote in Ontario and the Liberals 36%, as he has reported, what does that ratio suggest about the possible number of seats for each party? Surely any pollster worthy of the name could provide a mathematical model. Indeed, I'm sure Nik has already probably done so. I'd just like to see the breakdown region by region -- that is, the projected number of seats for each party in each region based on these popular vote numbers. The popular vote does not translate directly into seats because the number of seats varies from region to region. My other point is that Ontario and Quebec have more seats as such than other parts of the country and so the results there might be more interesting and crucial in terms of projections.

[updated Sun Sep 14 15:12:39 EDT 2008]

Wow. Liberal supporters sure are being a little bitter about this. Hey, the wrong guy was chosen. Dion would be as much of a disaster for canada as he has been for his party. Canadians know that. They're not 'stupid' as May says, and they're not idiots either. They just know that Harper is good for Canada, and the liberal 'critisizm' amounts to partisan scare tactics. And if we should be scared of anyone - it's dion.

His green plan would cripple our economy - and worse, would reduce our ability to recover when the world economy finally turns (as it always does).

His policies would fracture canada into divisive groups again, with a resurgence in quebec seperatism and western alienation.

Harper is a far far better leader, and nobody is buying the 'scary harper' routine any more.

That's pretty clear.

The real question at this point is 'will layton become canada's opposition?" Dion didn't exactly do a great job as opposition when he had the chance.

[updated Sun Sep 14 15:15:34 EDT 2008]