CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking completed last night (September 11th) shows the Conservatives seven points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters. (CP 38%, Lib 31%, NDP 14%, BQ 9% GP 9%). The Tories and Liberals continue to be statistically tied in Ontario (Lib 40%; CP 39%) with the Tories extending their lead in the West to 18 points (CP 45%; Lib 27%).
On the best PM front Stephen Harper was the choice of four in ten Canadians (39%), followed by Jack Layton and Stephane Dion. (Best PM – Harper 39%, Layton 15%, Dion 14%, May 4%, Duceppe 3%, None 7% and undecided 18%).
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Harper continues to lead the other party leaders by a wide margin with an Index score of 105 points compared to Jack Layton (45 points) and Stephane Dion (43 points). Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe trailed the other party leaders with leadership index scores of 16 and 12 points respectively.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics tonight at 8 pm on CPAC for a recap of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results - A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 10, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=975, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 38% (+1)
- Liberal Party 31% (-1)
- NDP 14% (+1)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- Undecided 19% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 39% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 15% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 7% (-1)
- Unsure 18% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 105 (+2)
- Jack Layton 45 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 43 (+1)
- Elizabeth May 16 (-1)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+2)
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Dear Nik, How do you explain the discrepancy between your results in Ontario an... more
mtllu (Québec) 12 Sep 14:10
So Nik is committed to a polling strategy that tracks nationally, when everyone ... more
rsharp (Québec) 12 Sep 17:48
The CPC is up to a 7 point spread, and nik's numbers actually put them closer th... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 12 Sep 14:48
So Nik is committed to a polling strategy that tracks nationally, when everyone ... more
rsharp (Québec) 12 Sep 17:48
Nik, a second reminder to you. If you continue polling on this basis, you will ... more
rsharp (Québec) 12 Sep 22:08
Comments
nfitz
Can you give an early indication of what's happening in Newfoundland since August? It would be interesting to see if Williams ABC campaign is having any impact.
[updated Fri Sep 12 14:08:55 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 14:08
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mtllu
Dear Nik,
How do you explain the discrepancy between your results in Ontario and those of other pollsters? Three other polls this week have shown the Conservatives ahead by 5-7 points there. Do you have a different methodology from the other firms?
Thanks!
P.S. I'm referring to EKOS 9/8-9 (39-33), Angus Reid 9/8-9 (38-33), Harris-Decima 9/8-11 (41-34). I really hope your numbers are right...
[updated Fri Sep 12 14:10:11 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 14:10
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Naci Sey
I work with people on very low income. Their (and my) income is so low that having a phone, either landline or cell, is impossible. Instead, our communications link is via the Internet and email. A survey by Statistics Canada which was completed in December and made available April 2008 revealed that a growing number of people don't have phone service. While the number is still low, under 5%, the fact that it grew substantially from the previous survey reflects the increase in the depth of poverty in this country.
In your polling, do you make attempts to reach voters who haven't a phone? We do vote and would like our opinions considered.
[updated Fri Sep 12 14:11:15 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 14:11
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Foxer
naci - Maybe nik could correct me if i'm wrong, but it seems to me that they're just taking a sample - so lets say half the people in a low income bracket don't have phones and the other half does. They're all likely to have similar voting intentions - they face the same problems, they live in the same area, they'll have similar concerns. So - he's only polling somethign like 1 in forty thousand anyway - (about 1000 people out of canada's 40 million or so) so if he talks to one or two people in that income range in that area who do have phones, he'll get a relatively accurate reading of all of them.
That's how polls work - they take a tiny sample and extrapolate the results. So unless you have reason to believe those without phones would have a radically different opinion or perspective than someone who's just about as broke but does have one still, i think the general opinions would be likely the same.
[updated Fri Sep 12 14:44:10 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 14:44
Naci Sey
Thank you for trying to clarify that.
People who do research on poverty issues as I do have seen that extreme poverty - that which places households at or below the poverty gap, not just the poverty line (as defined by the LICO or LIM) - can precipitate a change in fundamental values. It's as though the severity of the condition forces that change in order that the person not feel him/herself to be living in conflict with values previously held.
Also, I've seen class distinctions growing within the lower quintile.
[updated Fri Sep 12 15:09:34 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 15:09
Foxer
I have no doubt about that. Also remember tho, their REAL opportunity to have a voice comes in participating in their local riding associations and on voting day. Whether nik gives them a call or not is of less importance after all :) (no offense nik.)
There are also other ways they can be heard - most papers are online now and they can email letters to the editors from any public internet accessible computer, such as many libraries have for example.
Being poor doesn't have to mean being voiceless.
[updated Fri Sep 12 15:54:39 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 15:54
Naci Sey
In fact, that's largely what my work has been about over the past five years, to encourage others in poverty "to mobilize, galvanize and politicize." That's a direct quote from the book "Policies of Exclusion, Poverty & Health: Stories from the front," a project done wholly by and for women in poverty.
All that aside, we'd still like to be included in polling. We really do bring a unique perspective and one which would surprise many.
[updated Fri Sep 12 16:15:02 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 16:15
Foxer
Yeah - but unless one is polling for a specific riding the number of people you're talking about is a drop in the bucket. And i mean no offense by that at all - when you're trying to guage the voting intent of the population of canada, most small towns in bc are a drop in the bucket. It's not even like they call each town, they'll call a handful from 'central bc' and some from the lower mainland etc. And while i'm sure that the extreme low income earners have a very strong point of view to reference, everybody everywhere has a unique point of view - the needs of folks in williams lake isn't likely to be the same as the people of abbotsford for example, yet neither town may get a call in a national survey.
If you're interested in the perspective of regional low income earners, why not do your own poll and release the results to the media? I mean - you can pretty much steal the questions right off of existing polls. Have a half dozen volunteers go out and get 20 responses each on the streets, and take the age and sex of the person, then take a sampling across the ages and sexes. It's not as super precise as a truly scientific poll but it would get the point across.
[updated Fri Sep 12 16:54:32 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 16:54
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Naci Sey.....just remember that conservatives have never cared for the very poor in our society. They like the top down approach of tax cuts to the rich and upper middle class and hope the trickle down theory will work its way through the population. The Liberals have always championed the poor.
[updated Sat Sep 13 02:07:09 -0400 2008]
13 Sep 02:07
kschell
Here is a direct quote from The Daily (Statstics Canada Online publication) from April 23, 2008 titled "Residential Telephone Service Survey":
"The survey also showed that 0.9% of households did not have any telephone service at all. This rate was slightly lower than the 1.3% reported during the previous year."
URL: http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080423/d080423d.htm
Not sure how you came up with the 5% number - the only number close to that in the survey was the number of households that had only cellphone service and no land line, which was 5.1%.
In any case, your argument that "a growing number of people don't have phone service" doesn't hold water. The survey stated that that this number was down from the previous year.
Besides, lack of a telephone by itself is not a direct indicator of poverty - in some cases this may be a personal choice.
[updated Fri Sep 12 14:47:48 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 14:47
Naci Sey
kschell, thank you for that info. I'd also gone to StatsCan but a search for The Daily notice eluded me. All I got was the link providing info about the methodology, sampling, etc. of the survey but not the results.
Perhaps I'm confusing that study with another done here in BC. At any rate, among the very low-income people with whom I work and mingle, vastly more haven't a phone than do. And it's not b/c they don't want one.
[updated Fri Sep 12 14:59:32 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 14:59
Foxer
Yeah. I used to volunteer some of my time at DERA to work on their computer stuff once in a while, i know they had a great voice mail setup for their clients just to allow people to have some means of contact because they didn't have a phone. Hard to apply for a job when the employer can't call you back for an interview. I know it was a big problem for them.
[updated Fri Sep 12 15:56:13 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 15:56
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
kschell,
Also many younger people are choosing to have a mobile as their only phone line.
[updated Sat Sep 13 02:09:15 -0400 2008]
13 Sep 02:09
Fernando Minna
Nik,
What can you tell us about the voting intentions of men/women?
[updated Fri Sep 12 14:41:36 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 14:41
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Foxer
The CPC is up to a 7 point spread, and nik's numbers actually put them closer than anyone else's. Unless dion does something very quickly, he's going to finish in a very ugly place.
[updated Fri Sep 12 14:48:00 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 14:48
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ManningFan13
Nik, as a British Columbian, I'm always disappointed when pollsters fail to break down the provincial results in "The West". Certainly the "West" numbers are unbelievably skewed due to the voting patterns of Albertans. The CPC usually polls near 60% there, with the NDP in single digits. In BC, it's much closer, but it's impossible to get any value from your numbers when we're lumped in with other provinces. Any chance we could see some provincial tables, even if you don't include them in your main news releases?
[updated Fri Sep 12 15:30:52 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 15:30
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psiclone
I live in Victoria BC and am looking forward to when the numbers warrant a detailed breakdown of the polling for the west. I am sensing something that I have not seen or heard in a very long time and that is a very real and very hard push back against the Liberal Party's Carbon Tax Plan. I have not seen this like since Trudeau and the NEP fiasco and from what I have heard it may be one where the rural urban split is going to become a key player both here and elsewhere perhaps if you have time you could elaborate on this. I have been a political junkie for a long time and have worked (volunteer) for the LPC as well as CPC and would like to add that I find the Conservative Party far more open to listening to it's grass roots members than the LPC and personally I think that is a factor as well. I used to get the feeling that the LPC officials were just harvesting votes and really did not listen but told you what was best maybe the political philosophies are more different than what is populized by many.
[updated Fri Sep 12 15:59:25 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 15:59
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So Nik is committed to a polling strategy that tracks nationally, when everyone knows regional tracking is all that matters. And to polling on three questions, two of which are essentially about "leadership," where the playing field is anything but level because of Mr. Harper's 2+ years of attacks on Mr. Dion's character, media complicity in same, etc.
Only in Canada? Pity.
[updated Fri Sep 12 17:48:57 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 17:48
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Nik, a second reminder to you. If you continue polling on this basis, you will have let the country and your profession down. Your questions turn this into a personality contest, when anyone who knows anything knows that Harper and his pit bull team's brutal, unfair and actually ridiculous attack ads on Dion have worked: bought lock, stock and barrel by media pundits and, through them, ordinary Canadians.
Best PM? What the heck does that mean? I am in a state of disbelief that your respondents considered Harper more trustworthy, competent and visionary. I'd have to see exactly your process to comprehend such a response because it is so undeserving.
But then, McCain is hanging tough down south despite immaculate flaws and failures. Imagine: McCain and Harper. Now, that would put the world on a most dangerous course.
So, for now, I can't imagine. And, since you do not appear willing to fix your questions, let me ask mine: Which party will best deliver our independence from American misguidedness, whether issues of war, "free" trade (for corporations, certainly not for people moving about), our hard-won rights and freedoms... and on and on?
I respect and love your site but your blatantly biased questions this time around are a travesty to us all.
[updated Fri Sep 12 22:08:28 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 22:08
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
In the Ipsos Reid poll of earlier today Harper's popularity rating dropped 15%. Dion's did also but not by as much and the Libs have not yet started to advertise. Its going to get hot under Steve's collar pretty soon.
I still predict the libs will get 38% to the cons34%.
[updated Sat Sep 13 22:31:30 -0400 2008]
13 Sep 22:31
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Anything But conservative
I would prefer to see the questions that ask one question rather than three different ones. I doubt Mr. Harper would be described as a trustworthy leader and this makes the results of this question misleading.
Which of the Federal leaders would you best describe as: The most trustworthy leader, them most competent leader, The leader with the best vision for Canada's future.
These questions should be asked seperately
[updated Sun Sep 14 01:50:58 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 01:50
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