CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking completed last night (September 11th) shows the Conservatives seven points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters. (CP 38%, Lib 31%, NDP 14%, BQ 9% GP 9%). The Tories and Liberals continue to be statistically tied in Ontario (Lib 40%; CP 39%) with the Tories extending their lead in the West to 18 points (CP 45%; Lib 27%).
On the best PM front Stephen Harper was the choice of four in ten Canadians (39%), followed by Jack Layton and Stephane Dion. (Best PM – Harper 39%, Layton 15%, Dion 14%, May 4%, Duceppe 3%, None 7% and undecided 18%).
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Harper continues to lead the other party leaders by a wide margin with an Index score of 105 points compared to Jack Layton (45 points) and Stephane Dion (43 points). Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe trailed the other party leaders with leadership index scores of 16 and 12 points respectively.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics tonight at 8 pm on CPAC for a recap of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at www.nanosresearch.com.
Methodology and Results - A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 10, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=975, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 38% (+1)
- Liberal Party 31% (-1)
- NDP 14% (+1)
- BQ 9% (NC)
- Green Party 9% (NC)
- Undecided 19% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 39% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 15% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 7% (-1)
- Unsure 18% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 105 (+2)
- Jack Layton 45 (+3)
- Stephane Dion 43 (+1)
- Elizabeth May 16 (-1)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+2)