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CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 31, NDP 14, BQ 9, GP 9 (ending September 11)

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CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking completed last night (September 11th) shows the Conservatives seven points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters. (CP 38%, Lib 31%, NDP 14%, BQ 9% GP 9%). The Tories and Liberals continue to be statistically tied in Ontario (Lib 40%; CP 39%) with the Tories extending their lead in the West to 18 points (CP 45%; Lib 27%).

On the best PM front Stephen Harper was the choice of four in ten Canadians (39%), followed by Jack Layton and Stephane Dion. (Best PM – Harper 39%, Layton 15%, Dion 14%, May 4%, Duceppe 3%, None 7% and undecided 18%).

The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Harper continues to lead the other party leaders by a wide margin with an Index score of 105 points compared to Jack Layton (45 points) and Stephane Dion (43 points). Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe trailed the other party leaders with leadership index scores of 16 and 12 points respectively.

Tune in to Prime Time Politics tonight at 8 pm on CPAC for a recap of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at www.nanosresearch.com.

Methodology and Results - A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1200 random interviews.

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on September 10, 2008.

Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)

Committed Voters - Canada (N=975, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Conservative Party 38% (+1)
  • Liberal Party 31% (-1)
  • NDP 14% (+1)
  • BQ 9% (NC)
  • Green Party 9% (NC)
  • Undecided 19% (NC)

Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Conservative leader Stephen Harper 39% (+1)
  • NDP leader Jack Layton 15% (NC)
  • Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (NC)
  • Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (-1)
  • Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
  • None of them 7% (-1)
  • Unsure 18% (-1)

Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: The most trustworthy leader The most competent leader The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future [Leadership Index Score] (N=1,201, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Stephen Harper 105 (+2)
  • Jack Layton 45 (+3)
  • Stephane Dion 43 (+1)
  • Elizabeth May 16 (-1)
  • Gilles Duceppe 12 (+2)

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Dear Nik, How do you explain the discrepancy between your results in Ontario an... more

mtllu (Québec) 12 Sep 14:10

So Nik is committed to a polling strategy that tracks nationally, when everyone ... more

rsharp (Québec) 12 Sep 17:48

The CPC is up to a 7 point spread, and nik's numbers actually put them closer th... more

Foxer (British Columbia) 12 Sep 14:48

So Nik is committed to a polling strategy that tracks nationally, when everyone ... more

rsharp (Québec) 12 Sep 17:48

Nik, a second reminder to you. If you continue polling on this basis, you will ... more

rsharp (Québec) 12 Sep 22:08

Comments

nfitz

Can you give an early indication of what's happening in Newfoundland since August? It would be interesting to see if Williams ABC campaign is having any impact.

[updated Fri Sep 12 14:08:55 -0400 2008]

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12 Sep 14:08

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mtllu

Dear Nik,

How do you explain the discrepancy between your results in Ontario and those of other pollsters? Three other polls this week have shown the Conservatives ahead by 5-7 points there. Do you have a different methodology from the other firms?

Thanks!

P.S. I'm referring to EKOS 9/8-9 (39-33), Angus Reid 9/8-9 (38-33), Harris-Decima 9/8-11 (41-34). I really hope your numbers are right...

[updated Fri Sep 12 14:10:11 -0400 2008]

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12 Sep 14:10

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Naci Sey

I work with people on very low income. Their (and my) income is so low that having a phone, either landline or cell, is impossible. Instead, our communications link is via the Internet and email. A survey by Statistics Canada which was completed in December and made available April 2008 revealed that a growing number of people don't have phone service. While the number is still low, under 5%, the fact that it grew substantially from the previous survey reflects the increase in the depth of poverty in this country.

In your polling, do you make attempts to reach voters who haven't a phone? We do vote and would like our opinions considered.

[updated Fri Sep 12 14:11:15 -0400 2008]

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12 Sep 14:11

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Fernando Minna

Nik,

What can you tell us about the voting intentions of men/women?

[updated Fri Sep 12 14:41:36 -0400 2008]

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12 Sep 14:41

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Foxer

The CPC is up to a 7 point spread, and nik's numbers actually put them closer than anyone else's. Unless dion does something very quickly, he's going to finish in a very ugly place.

[updated Fri Sep 12 14:48:00 -0400 2008]

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12 Sep 14:48

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ManningFan13

Nik, as a British Columbian, I'm always disappointed when pollsters fail to break down the provincial results in "The West". Certainly the "West" numbers are unbelievably skewed due to the voting patterns of Albertans. The CPC usually polls near 60% there, with the NDP in single digits. In BC, it's much closer, but it's impossible to get any value from your numbers when we're lumped in with other provinces. Any chance we could see some provincial tables, even if you don't include them in your main news releases?

[updated Fri Sep 12 15:30:52 -0400 2008]

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12 Sep 15:30

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psiclone

I live in Victoria BC and am looking forward to when the numbers warrant a detailed breakdown of the polling for the west. I am sensing something that I have not seen or heard in a very long time and that is a very real and very hard push back against the Liberal Party's Carbon Tax Plan. I have not seen this like since Trudeau and the NEP fiasco and from what I have heard it may be one where the rural urban split is going to become a key player both here and elsewhere perhaps if you have time you could elaborate on this. I have been a political junkie for a long time and have worked (volunteer) for the LPC as well as CPC and would like to add that I find the Conservative Party far more open to listening to it's grass roots members than the LPC and personally I think that is a factor as well. I used to get the feeling that the LPC officials were just harvesting votes and really did not listen but told you what was best maybe the political philosophies are more different than what is populized by many.

[updated Fri Sep 12 15:59:25 -0400 2008]

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12 Sep 15:59

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Richard_thumb rsharp

So Nik is committed to a polling strategy that tracks nationally, when everyone knows regional tracking is all that matters. And to polling on three questions, two of which are essentially about "leadership," where the playing field is anything but level because of Mr. Harper's 2+ years of attacks on Mr. Dion's character, media complicity in same, etc.

Only in Canada? Pity.

[updated Fri Sep 12 17:48:57 -0400 2008]

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12 Sep 17:48

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Richard_thumb rsharp

Nik, a second reminder to you. If you continue polling on this basis, you will have let the country and your profession down. Your questions turn this into a personality contest, when anyone who knows anything knows that Harper and his pit bull team's brutal, unfair and actually ridiculous attack ads on Dion have worked: bought lock, stock and barrel by media pundits and, through them, ordinary Canadians.

Best PM? What the heck does that mean? I am in a state of disbelief that your respondents considered Harper more trustworthy, competent and visionary. I'd have to see exactly your process to comprehend such a response because it is so undeserving.

But then, McCain is hanging tough down south despite immaculate flaws and failures. Imagine: McCain and Harper. Now, that would put the world on a most dangerous course.

So, for now, I can't imagine. And, since you do not appear willing to fix your questions, let me ask mine: Which party will best deliver our independence from American misguidedness, whether issues of war, "free" trade (for corporations, certainly not for people moving about), our hard-won rights and freedoms... and on and on?

I respect and love your site but your blatantly biased questions this time around are a travesty to us all.

[updated Fri Sep 12 22:08:28 -0400 2008]

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12 Sep 22:08

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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)

In the Ipsos Reid poll of earlier today Harper's popularity rating dropped 15%. Dion's did also but not by as much and the Libs have not yet started to advertise. Its going to get hot under Steve's collar pretty soon.

I still predict the libs will get 38% to the cons34%.

[updated Sat Sep 13 22:31:30 -0400 2008]

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13 Sep 22:31

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Anything But conservative

I would prefer to see the questions that ask one question rather than three different ones. I doubt Mr. Harper would be described as a trustworthy leader and this makes the results of this question misleading.
Which of the Federal leaders would you best describe as: The most trustworthy leader, them most competent leader, The leader with the best vision for Canada's future.

These questions should be asked seperately

[updated Sun Sep 14 01:50:58 -0400 2008]

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14 Sep 01:50

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