Our first set of CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking indicates the Conservatives have entered the campaign with a five point lead over the Liberals among decided voters (CP 37%, Lib 32%, NDP 13%, BQ 9% GP 9%). Notably, the Conservatives are showing strength in central Canada where they are statistically tied with the Liberals in Ontario (Lib 41%, CP 39%) and close on the heels of the Bloc in Quebec (BQ 35%, CP 32%).
Asked which of the five party leaders would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper enters the campaign with a solid 23 point lead over second place Jack Layton (Best PM - Harper 38%, Layton 15%, Dion 14%, May 5%, Duceppe 3%, None 8% and undecided 19%). Significantly, one in four Canadians (28%) answered None/Unsure.
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Harper far ahead of the other party leaders with an Index score of 103 points compared to Jack Layton and Stephane Dion with 42 points each. Elizabeth May follows with an Index score of 17 points with Gilles Duceppe currently last among the five leaders at 10 points.
The numbers show that the Conservatives have entered the campaign from a definite position of strength over the opposition. But, with the Conservatives mounting a leadership driven campaign they need to be wary of how the 27% who answered None/Unsure on the best PM question break. Despite Harper’s strong leadership numbers, the Liberal brand remains strong trailing by only five points nationally. Any significant missteps by Harper could potentially push this block of voters over to the opposition.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20 for 200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on August 27, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=978, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37% (+4)
- Liberal Party 32% (-3)
- NDP 13% (-4)
- BQ 9% (+1)
- Green Party 9% (+2)
- Undecided 19% (+3)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,200,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 38% (+2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 15% (-2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-2)
- None of them 8% (-2)
- Unsure 19% (+7)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,200, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 103 (+10)
- Stephane Dion 42 (-6)
- Jack Layton 42 (+2)
- Elizabeth May 17 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 10 (-2)
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Nik, if you continue polling on this basis, you will have let the country and yo... more
rsharp (Québec) 11 Sep 20:12
This is excellent news and seems to be exactly in line with what I have been eco... more
psiclone (British Columbia) 11 Sep 14:40
Nik is the only numbers I ever look at, he's always dead on. I think Nik, you... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 11 Sep 16:35
This pole is closer than I thought it would be... wait until the fuss over the ... more
mathilda (New Brunswick) 11 Sep 17:29
Its not about big brother telling you anything, its about being able to control ... more
Luc VNO (Ontario) 11 Sep 20:51
I was hoping this would not resort to derogatory comments and we could have a ci... more
fortescue (Ontario) 11 Sep 22:09
Comments
psiclone
This is excellent news and seems to be exactly in line with what I have been ecountering. I for one am definitely voting Conservative and speaking as a fromer Liberal I would suggest they investigate doing the same. I left the LPC after Martin and crew threw the Putsch on him. Despite much of the negative spin from the opposition I think more and more people will be giving the Conservatives their support as they are no longer buying into the old and tired Liberal Fear and Shmear tactics so when they go to the polls and look at the ballot and choose the new PM and rightly so it will more than likely be Harper as he is definitely and by far and away the more effective, efficient and capable leader than Dion. The only other leader I think that has earned the voters respect is Layton and in a way though I am Conservative I hope the NDP does well also! Lest people forget Dion had 44 opportunities to speak and actually vote against the gov't but sat on his hands for one main reason ' he was adfraid to lose ' well I have a feeling that his feeling was correct.
[updated Thu Sep 11 14:40:58 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 14:40
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
cmay
Thank you for getting these numbers out Nik. You always have a good read on the pulse of the electorate.
[updated Thu Sep 11 14:45:56 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 14:45
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Fernando Minna
Given the changes since Aug 27 I'm guessing all the huff'n and puff'n about fixed election dates was ignored by the public as nothing more than inside baseball.
[updated Thu Sep 11 14:54:17 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 14:54
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
Quite understandable projections in as much that Harper is known although his leadership may not suit all, he has more good points than bad. Harper is a mighty good tactician and I chuckle at his method for getting the indecisive Liberal opposition away from biting at his heels. If anyone doubted Harper's ability to manouvre, they should think back to Emmerson and his appointment of Fortin. Harper may be in striking distance of a majority and the Liberals will be in "leadership mode" again and a strong Liberal leader, who does not sit on his hands and does not propose new taxes, will be a a major concern for the next election four years down the road.
In my opinion, Harper has several issues to overcome that are not sitting too well with the electorate. If he chooses to govern from the far right rather than the centre right, then that will be a problem. Hospital wait times is still an issue as is the Afghanistan War and the uncertainty for future commitment that seems to be developing today around the conflict. In supporting the conflict, the Liberals and Conservatives at this time, are undifferentiated. Only the NDP nationally say NO to the Afghanistan War and they are likely to get my vote on this issue. Perhaps the NDP would be a better opposition than the Liberals at this juncture in our history. The only restraint I see is that the Official Opposition will eventually become government.
[updated Thu Sep 11 15:57:19 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 15:57
14 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Regina Beach Boy
Hey Nik,
I learned a long time ago that your numbers are by far the most accurate read of public opinion out there, I've seen it time and time again.
As far as the numbers go, my only reservation is how well the NDP is doing, I have a creeping suspicion that they will be the surprise of the election and the story which will have the pollsters scratching their heads.
[updated Thu Sep 11 16:00:26 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 16:00
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
tdot416
Nik is the only numbers I ever look at, he's always dead on.
I think Nik, you should compare these numbers to the results in 2006, everyone is jumping up and down that Harper is going to take a majority, but based on the 2006 results, that the Liberals are polling better then 2006, they should make some gains, and also the Conservatives, but it wont be enough to put Harper over the magic number for a majority.
I'm going to interested in seeing how the recent gaffes by the Conservatives (Puffin, Williams, and today's Afghan emails) hit the Conservative, if at all.
[updated Thu Sep 11 16:35:16 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 16:35
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Nik. Why not ask simple questions that would give a better indication of the voter's intent.
1. Have you decided who will get your vote?
2. Are you likely to change your mind?
3. If any party is on the verge of a majority would you vote strategically?
4. Would you prefer a majority to bring stability to parliament?
Asking questions about who they think would make a better P.M. does little to predict who they will actually vote for. K.I.S.S. might be a better forecaster of how the election will turn out if that is the reason for doing the poll in the first place.
[updated Thu Sep 11 17:37:33 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 17:37
48 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Nik, if you continue polling on this basis, you will have let the country and your profession down. Your questions turn this into a personality contest, when anyone who knows anything knows that Harper and his pit bull team's brutal, unfair and actually ridiculous attack ads on Dion have worked: bought lock, stock and barrel by media pundits and, through them, ordinary Canadians.
Best PM? What the hell does that mean? I am in a state of disbelief that your respondents considered Harper more trustworthy, competent and visionary. I'd have to see exactly your process to comprehend such a response because it is so undeserving.
But then, McCain is hanging tough down south despite immaculate flaws and failures. Imagine: McCain and Harper. Now, that would put the world on a most dangerous course.
So, for now, I can't imagine. And you have to fix your questions!
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:12:30 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:12
31 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
JOSTOPA
NiK,
Two things i would like your opinion on...
(1) Now im not sure if this is still a law..but i'm curious about your opinion on this. What do you think about the law that bans polls on election day.
(2) Should leaders go negative...or be aggressive to gain support.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:22:55 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:22
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Hewlett
I'm surprised your poll shows such a close race. Most other polls show the Conservatives have a much better lead. Canada needs a majority government.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:24:13 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:24
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Rosebud in BC
Nik - When you make your phone calls do you call any cell phone numbers or just lan lines? I think a lot of younger voters use only cell phones and it would be interesting to know if they are being surveyed as well.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:26:38 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:26
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fortescue
Is there any details for the critical 905 area surrounding Toronto?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:29:10 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:29
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Greg Staples
Since Liberal support in Ontario tends be stronger in urban centres, especially in Toronto, what are the implications for suburban and rural ridings with the closeness in polling between the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario? Do you have breakdowns in 905?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:33:46 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:33
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My puzzle is why have Liberals had such a precipitous drop? There is no new scandal.
Is it just the result of the Conservatives straw man ad blitz smearing the Liberals?
I would have expected the Conservatives to take a hit for calling the election breaking their own law.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:33:59 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:33
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Luc VNO
I don't understand why people have such a hard time getting their heads around the Green shift. Reducing a tax you HAVE to pay, the income tax, & moving the burden to pollution, a tax you might not have to pay, allows one to control how much tax they pay. If you make the right choices, you pay less tax. The only way to control how much income tax you pay is to make less income. I have a grade 9 education & even I can get my head around that idea.
Luc Vienneau
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:38:38 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:38
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fortescue
Why do I need big brother to tell me how to spend my money? Do you need a tax to tell you you should be turning your lights out, drive less and buy fuel efficient cars. Buying carbon offsets is a cop out, its kinda like killing your dog and then giving a donation to the humanes society to make you feel better. Its an absolute cop out.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:44:04 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:44
Luc VNO
Its not about big brother telling you anything, its about being able to control your tax burden. The only way to control your income tax burden is to make more or less money. I'd rather be able to control my tax burden through what I spend or don't spend on than by working a miniumum wage job all my life to pay minimum tax.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:51:53 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:51
elf
look to the European countries that have this green shift - they have low unemployment and good well paying jobs, less poverty than us and they have really lreduced their carbon footprint - we need to look beyond our borders and begin to seek alternatives - without somebody being prepared to take a bold step we'd still have no electricity !! Mr Dion is a bold and courageous man !!
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:07:05 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:07
Luc VNO
You guys just put me on TV, sweet guys!!!
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:46:54 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:46
elf
wow lucky you !!
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:04:24 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:04
larryl
Luc. The reason you can figure that out is your not a Conservative. They have a hard time with common sense.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:53:00 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:53
undsided
It won't realy give you any option on how much tax you pay, does it matter if it is income tax or carbon tax no, i still have to heat me house drive my car buy food that has to brought in by a truck to the store, farmers still have to drive a tractor to harvast the food we eat, they would have us believe that there is some magical farm equipment that uses less fuel, that semis can suddenly get better mileage, or the the distance from the factory to the store will shrink, a carbon tax is basicly a tax on everything most things twice. So with your grade 9 education tellme how anyone can save money with the green shift
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:11:07 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:11
elf
well try getting used to the concept of sweater instead of cranking up your heat and wearing shorts all year in your house - try that for a start - then try explaining to your grandchildren how you buried your head in the sand and refused to listen and that's why they are all living indoors or underground cos it's too darned hot to go outside in the sun and when you show them pictures of animals -try explaining where they all went -
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:29:51 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:29
larryl
un d . The Conservatives have convinced people that this plan is just a tax grab. Put in the simplest terms if the major polluters are too stupid to reduce their GHG emissions they will have to pass the taxes they are forced to pay on to the consumer. We will buy less of their products because of the increase in prices. The laws of supply and demand will take effect and they will lower their prices .With the increase in prices we will have to either alter our habits or pay for our wasteful way of life. People who have two or three cars in the driveway can choose to save money on upkeep and insurance costs by getting rid of one of them. How many people drive to work and then home but pay $10 or 12 a day for insurance for that convenience. I went six years without a car at all. There are many ways of reducing our costs with very little effort. We have been paying through the nose for years and only because we were dumb enough to pay the exorbitant prices they were charging. We have raised a whole generation of people who thought they were entitled to anything and everything. That is going to end soon . Consumers have the power if only we would learn to use it. Cut up your credit cards and save yourself 2 or 3 hundred in month in interest payments. How many of us would it take cancel our deluxe cable t.v package to see the price drop? Just a few ways to spend less and save paying the carbon tax but still get reductions in other taxes.
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:53:37 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:53
undsided
I'm not talking about product that you can decide to buy or not i'm talk about thing that are nessessary heat food power. And as for the law of supply and demand the rest of that law goes as if there is no demand you leave and go where the is one, os if you stop buying products for one company for what ever reason they may deciside to up and leaver or just go backrupt. The basics of business are the bottom line can't change, we may not like it but it is they have things are. If the prise of doing business goes up the prise of the product goes up, it doesn't matter if this comes fromhave to buy need epuipment to meet the green shift requirements, or becuase they failed to do anything and they are poluting heavily and have to pay high carbon tax, and ther is proof of this in the 70's when the clean air act was put in and car companies were forced to clean up the emmisions of the car the prise of cars went up even though there was less material in the car (and i am not saying that i am agaist the clean air act it is just a historical example). Companies don't pay for the upgades that the goverments force on them we the consumers do like it or not, and when it's a tax on the staples of life how can you avoid them.
how about 40% of the population that can't efford to heat ther house or pay there power bills as things are now, they talk about average people, house holds that make 60000 dolar a year, when over 35% make alot less, I will mhave no grandchildren at all if i starve or freeze to death because i can't heat my house, or feed my children or drive to work, and i usually keep my house at 19 C and use compact florecent bulbs, and drive a car that gets 50 miles to the gallon, not becuase it good for the enviroment but because i have to, why should the poor have to pay to fix the world that they didn't break, we may not like it or agree with it but we have to realize that taxing the cost of doing business makes the prise go up and propossing a tax the will amke everything go up is not a good idea, i have read that the reduction in tax for the average household that make 60000 dollars a year will be 1700 (aprox) this is only 2.8% the increase will be 10% year , if you count people that make 75000 or less this is 85% of the population so 85% of the population will be paying 7.2% more tax. i say there has to be a better solution
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:19:24 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:19
Luc VNO
Honestly, if your this concerned about the nickles & dimes the green shift will add to your expenses, even with the accompanying income tax deduction, than you should be more concerned with the fact that every year the private banks are skimming $40 billion off the top of our tax revenue to "service" the interest on a debt the shouldn't exist. We the people of Canada own the Bank of Canada. If you owned a bank, would you go to another bank & borrow money at prime interest rates or would you borrow from yourself at next to 0%???? So why, in 1974, did we let the government sell off our national debt to the private banks, allowing a $35 billion debt accumulated in the first 110 years of confederation to balloon to over $600 billion in just 30 years. We are being extorted in the most vile fashion & no one even talks about it.
[updated Thu Sep 11 23:02:22 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 23:02
undsided
Ok, I just had to look that up, and your right it wasn't a good idea why did the liberals do that, and is also part of my point i don't think anything anyone running for government that is suppose to be good for canada is good. I don't know if any of them have any good ideas, all i know is this one sound like a bad one
[updated Thu Sep 11 23:21:19 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 23:21
larryl
luc. You learned more in your nine years than these Conservatives did going to university. We still own the bank of Canada but Lyin Brain gave the private banks the power to create money out of thin air. Ask my friend Hollin who is a retired banker. His name has started to appear again after he took some time off.The bdebt actually toopk less time than you think.It stopped growing in 94 after the bLiberals balanced the budget for the first time in twenty years.
[updated Fri Sep 12 14:01:53 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 14:01
Luc VNO
Right, but I don't own a car, I don't pay to heat my appartment, I don't even pay hydro in my building. The few things I do spend money on, like bus passes & food might increase, but that'll be offset by my decrease in income tax. & if I want to save even more on my tax burden I can buy a bike and stop paying for buss passes, thus lowering my tax burden even farther. It's really quite simple, if you are a careful spender, you can lower your tax burden. As it stands now, the only way to do so is to make less income.
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:24:48 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:24
undsided
Some pays to heat the building you live in and the power you use, if it is included in your rent then most likely your rent will go up, riding abike to work will help but this is canada you can only ride it 6 monthes a year (well i guess unless you live in vancouver i hear the weather is nice most monthes). and the prise of your bike might go up
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:36:35 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:36
Luc VNO
Seriously, just because I have a grade 9 education, formally, doesn't mean I know less than you do or are any less smart than you are. The only thing it really speaks to is my inability to conform to institutionalized programming.
Besides, I shouldn't have to defend myself undsided, only my opinions.
The reduction in my income taxes will be almost 100% savings for me.
Honestly how much money did you save from the 2% GST cut??? Personally it saves me about $16 a year, yay!! I'd rather the government kept my pennies instead of the stores I leave them at.
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:39:27 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:39
undsided
I' m sorry i guess i shouldn't have said that, when i orginally read your post it sound like you where saying anyone that didn't think it was good was stupid , you get it so people that don't must have no common sence, and since i can't understand how it will help.... anyways i think the biggest objection may come from where i live saskatchewan where the local energy compay and the power company are already asking for a 40% increase in the what we have to pay if the green shift adds another 10% it will be very hard on all people here, and yes the drop in gst ment very little
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:53:23 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:53
Luc VNO
Appology accepted, but you are right about my wording. After re-reading it, it does sound like that. Really though, there are options, some might seem drastic, but they will eventually save you money. Install a geothermal heat pump as a furnace/AC unit. Not only does it do both heat & cool, but it runs on less electricity than your fridge, with no fuel to purchase for it. The savings there alone will pay for it's installation soon enough & start to actually put money in your pocket within a decade of installation, which is great if you plan on staying in your house for more than 20 years. There are lots of ways to find ways to save if the tax is on product rather than income.
[updated Thu Sep 11 23:16:02 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 23:16
Foxer
luc - your intentions are noble enough so i won't fault you there. But the fact is, the world doesn't work the way you're suggesting.
First - It's not nickles and dimes. It's a lot of money. One billion dollars out of the economy of ontario alone for example. The whole tax is 15 billion by liberal estimates. That's not nickles and dimes, that's real money.
Secondly - "you" don't get it back. The vast majority of people will pay more than they get. That is the only possible way it can work - you're looking at subsidies for special interests and research - there will not be enough money to pay back what was taken.
Thirdly - because the distribution is uneven some will suffer more than others, and not based on their emmissions, but on their current income. How is that fair?
Fourth - It will severely degrade business. Even if they DID get the money back, which they don't, they have to give it up for a year, live without it, THEN get it back. During that year it's pretty hard on them. ANd business suffering means less jobs and that means a weakened economy - which means people can't AFFORD to pay for 'green' alternatives.
Fifth - Much of the money will be set aside as tax 'incentives' to switch to green tech. Well - that only works if you can AFFORD to switch to green tech. Yes - you might save money over 5 years, but if you can't come up with the cash to do the conversion today then that ain't gonna help if you know what I mean.
Sixth - the whole thing is predicated on whether or not you trust the liberals to keep their word. You know - the folks who said they'd kill the GST and bring in childcare and meet the kyoto committments, NONE of which happened.
The last thing we need right now is a new tax. This is a TERRIBLE plan.
out of curiosity - have you actually read the thing?
[updated Thu Sep 11 23:29:25 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 23:29
Marty of Ontario
I wouldn't say stupid, but I would say misinformed. You see the carbon tax will raise 15 billion for the government. 7 to 8 billion will be kind of put back as in income tax, A couple billion here and there for projects and the rest will go towards the lower income earners. Who will pay or get hit the hardest, its the middle class that will get hit the hardest. Sure one can say well that's not a bad idea and good for the lower income earners, but it would make our beautiful country of ours poorer for it and don't forget that the middle class aren't rich. So, say no to the carbon tax
Also on a different point, the west won't be happy and would be the second time they've been screwed over. The first was with Trudeau and trust me the talk of separation has always been simmering below the surface since that time and with this carbon tax, well it does worry me a lot. That's why the people of Quebec and Alberta have somethings in common and that they are Canadians of course. I think the Conservative have done some good things on that end which my hope is that things can even get better. Sure the Tory's aren't perfect but at least they haven't wasted billions or stole any millions of dollars from us. Well take care
[updated Fri Sep 12 02:50:33 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 02:50
fortescue
I was hoping this would not resort to derogatory comments and we could have a cival debate. Its okay to disagree without being disagreeable.
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:09:52 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:09
donzy
Well Luc, I might see some logic if Dion had taxed gasoline consumption which I can make some adjustments to and which is a major source of greenhouse gases but he didn't have the fortitude to do it. Instead he wants to sneek up behind me and tax my home heating and hydro consumption which is plain stupid.
Well it appears the lights are already out in Liberal headquarters as this redistribution of wealth is not coming my way. My children are grown, my wife and I worked hard to earn our retirement and tax my hydro and heat = good luck
donzy
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:19:27 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:19
Splitsec
Umm.. It could be because you don't understand the "Green Shift". It is suppose to be "Revenue Neutral" so that means that they give with the left hand and take away with the right and your wallet stays the same, but potentially the environment is better off.
[updated Mon Sep 15 14:49:19 EDT 2008]
15 Sep 14:49
fortescue
Did she get all the Liberal talking points in?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:39:11 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:39
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Hey Nik!
I have to say, your poll was the most accurate last election.
My question, specifically, has to do with the amount of individuals it takes to bump up a percentage point. Based on your poll, Harper is 3 percent short of majority territory. High many people have to vote in favour for that number to budge 3 percentage points? Approximately.
By the way, it's too bad other polls can't be as accurate as yours are. What would make their methodology different?
http://returnofthetory.btblogs.ca
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:40:59 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:40
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
tyler
Nik,
There is a prevailing assumption amongst political operatives that the Liberals typically need a 23-25 point spread with the NDP in order to secure left swinging ridings, Ottawa-Centre, Trinity-Spadina, Toronto-Danforth, London-Fanshawe, etc. What do the Ontario numbers reveal about the NDP - Liberal race in these types of ridings?
Thanks for keeping us up to date with the most reliable barometer.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:42:06 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:42
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Dean Billings
1. Are there any ethnic breakdowns showing any interesting changes?
2. Are the Liberals down primarily in cities or in rural (diesel dependent) areas?
3. Are the centre-left parties getting most of their votes in the same ridings?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:43:29 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:43
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RonaldODowd
Nik,
With roughly a third of the voters undecided, the debates should be crucial in winnowing out the undecided and establishing a firm polling trend. The leader that makes a mistake or who does not perform up to par with the others will be toast.
As Mulroney said: the leaders may have no option but to roll the dice based on their individual debate performances!
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:43:49 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:43
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
lewatson
Nik,
A couple of questions:
1) As part of your polling do you ask how the participant to rate themselves in terms of their political knowledge (eg. platforms, issues, etc)? What percentage of polles do you feel are truly informed?
2) What do you feel is the impact of the undecided vote? Does that percentage represent those who will not vote or will those votes be placed by the end of the campaign?
Thanks!
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:44:47 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:44
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
John Roozendaal
Nik,
It may come as a surprise to many in Toronto and other Liberal enclaves but the western half of the country and other areas such as the north have achieved full employment ie almost no one able to work is without opportunity to work. This helps Harper greatly and it looks like Quebec citizens and persons living in Ontario out side of Toronto seem to want the same economic prosperity.
The economy, common sense and a respect for individuals and families to decide their own affairs, may account for much of the success to date for Harper's party.
The green movement seems to represent envy versus some fake cause to save the universe from economic prosperity.
Peace and Love,
John R
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:48:48 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:48
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Jean-Marc
Nik,
Is there a hunger among Canadians for debate on real substantive issues (climate crisis; canada in the world; poverty; economic competitiveness and productivity)? Why are the leaders talking so little about them? Why is the media so obsessed with the horse racing and latest gaffes?
Thanks
Jean-Marc
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:50:09 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:50
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Blarghman
Nik, just wondering whether you see the Liberals making up any ground in Quebec, even part of the way back to 2004 numbers, and who that would come at the expense of? I don't see any way the Libs can form government getting ~20% in Quebec again, and Dion is likely not too popular with the voters the Cons and NDP are picking up from the BQ, so I'm not sure where his growth is.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:55:16 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:55
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Luc VNO
What about the non-voting 40% of Canadians, have you ever tried polling them on their views?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:55:47 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:55
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msf
Dear Nik,
I enjoyed your overview of the numbers. They are certainly thought provoking and I value your input in providing context to the bare numbers, especially given your indepth knowledge of what questions were asked and how the numbers seem to be breaking down by province/sub-region.
On the other hand, I do feel that you overstepped your explicative role by expounding on what the parties/leaders ought to do. In particular, your responses to 2 callers/bloggers on the topic of the Liberal Green Tax. How objective are you being when you (i) appear to tell one caller that he understands the numbers and (ii) provide an indepth response to one caller on what Stephan Dion needs to do to sell his Green Tax platform?
Maybe one famous expression should read... Lies, Statistics and Polls.
In all fairness to you I probably ought to mention that you did qualify the first comment by, in your next breath saying, "a man who thinks he understands the numbers ..."
Congratulations on having the most accurate polls last time around.
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:24:06 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:24
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Naci Sey
First, I'm delighted you're back doing election polling again. Each evening during the last election campaign, I made sure to check "Nik on the Numbers" and your appearance on CPAC. No other pollster can match your results.
Now to my point... I work with people on very low income. Their (and my) income is so low that having a phone, either landline or cell, is impossible. Instead, our communications link is via the Internet and email. A survey by Statistics Canada which was completed in December and made available April 2008 revealed that a growing number of people don't have phone service. While the number is still low, under 5%, the fact that it grew substantially from the previous survey reflects the increase in the depth of poverty in this country.
My question concerning your polling is this: Do you make attempts to reach voters who haven't a phone? We do vote and would like our opinions considered.
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:32:07 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:32
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Pelagie
Since most of us form our opinions of the leaders through the media, I would like to know if you ever ask which form of media they use: television, radio, newspaper or web, to inform themselves. I find it amazing that the highest percentage of respondents would choose Harper as the best PM, the most trustworthy,competent and having the best vision. Just what is his vision? Do the scandals and lies of the Tories have no impact on voters?
It is not hard to determine that this opinion is gleaned from watching television. For 2 1/2 years now CTV and to a lesser extent CBC, have been repeating Harper's attack ads on Dion, non stop. The MSM have had very little access to Harper and when they do, they do not hold him to account. Dion on the other hand, is asked the same humiliating questions, over and over. The playing field has not been even and the electorate are woefully uninformed, thus, Harper's high approval numbers.
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:04:36 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:04
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NeedtoVote
Well I must say I always look forward to your numbers but tonight I was definetly taken aback. What happened to NDP support exactly? I've heard many people tell me they were switching their votes from Liberal to NDP. Yet I don't see a rise in support in Ontario, instead I see a decline. As a person who supports to NDP myself, I know these voters are not going to the Conservatives, so where are they going? I can see some having gone to the Greens because of the May issue, and some possibly to the Liberals, but where did the rest of them go? Just yesterday a poll had them pegged at 13% in Ontario, now your poll is saying 10%. What's going on? Looking forward to seeing the numbers for each of the western provinces individually. I would like to know where the NDP stands in BC and Manitoba! Keep up the good work.
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:35:42 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:35
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Peter3
The Ontario numbers are startling. The 27th Conservative numbers were on the low side for polls in that period, and the new numbers are close to what others are seeing, but the new NDP numbers are either out of whack or showing some serious trouble for Mr. Layton in his home province. I think this is the first poll I've seen that was entirely done during or after the whole Elizabeth May brouhaha. I will be very interested to see what the Strategic Counsel battleground tracking polls report for Ontario in the same period.
It seems that Mr. Harper's leadership numbers are not pushing him into majority territory. I agree that other polls show that Mr. Layton has some mo going, so this poll is intriguing. If these numbers turn out to be a blip, he could be able to do something at the Liberals expense, if they don't get themselves in gear pdq.
So far this is a campaign in search of a hero. I suspect that if the debate putsch by the Greens had not knocked him off message and angered an as yet undetermined number of potential supporters, Mr. Layton would be the most likely candidate for the role. Life is what happens while you're making other plans, eh?
[updated Fri Sep 12 01:11:26 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 01:11
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Non-aligned in Toronto
I would caution everyone that this is the first of a nightly rolling poll with a small sample size (400) and a large margin of error. I'd wait to see the first "roll" completed which would consist of three installments. the rolled in results would have a sample size of 1200 and a margin of error of less than 3%. Then as the poll rolls forward a trend will become evident. This method has been phenominal in identifying election night results over the past few years, and I'm a true believer (give or take 2.5%, LOL)
Any one segment is not a reliable indicator of the public pulse.
[updated Fri Sep 12 12:16:45 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 12:16
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kferaday
Nik,
Wondering if you have any comment on the Harris Decima poll that shows the Conservatives at 41%, Liberals at 26%. Why is there such a big difference?
[updated Fri Sep 12 13:20:52 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 13:20
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VIF
Bonjour Nik,
Comme tu le sais, il est difficile d'avoir de l'informations de qualités (400 personnes interviewé) sur les intentions de votes dans la région atlantique. La seule façon de se faire une idée sur les intentions de votes consiste à comparer les sondages qui sont proches dans le temps afin d'accepter les résultats s'ils sont similaires ou les rejeter s'ils sont trop différents (il est aussi utile de re-pondérer les résultats à l'aide de la méta-analyse et d'interpréter à nouveau la marge d'erreur). Voilà pourquoi j'aimerais que vous publiez la répartition régionale des intentions de vote pour l'Atlantique et le nombre de personnes interviewé, comme vous le fait si bien habituellement, dans votre bulletin : CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking. Merci !
[updated Fri Sep 12 13:50:02 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 13:50
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So Nik is committed to a polling strategy that tracks nationally, when everyone knows regional tracking is all that matters. And to polling on three questions, two of which are essentially about "leadership," where the playing field is anything but level because of Mr. Harper's 2+ years of attacks on Mr. Dion's character, media complicity in same, etc.
Only in Canada? Pity.
[updated Fri Sep 12 17:47:06 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 17:47
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