Our first set of CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking indicates the Conservatives have entered the campaign with a five point lead over the Liberals among decided voters (CP 37%, Lib 32%, NDP 13%, BQ 9% GP 9%). Notably, the Conservatives are showing strength in central Canada where they are statistically tied with the Liberals in Ontario (Lib 41%, CP 39%) and close on the heels of the Bloc in Quebec (BQ 35%, CP 32%).
Asked which of the five party leaders would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper enters the campaign with a solid 23 point lead over second place Jack Layton (Best PM - Harper 38%, Layton 15%, Dion 14%, May 5%, Duceppe 3%, None 8% and undecided 19%). Significantly, one in four Canadians (28%) answered None/Unsure.
The CPAC-Nanos Leadership Index shows Harper far ahead of the other party leaders with an Index score of 103 points compared to Jack Layton and Stephane Dion with 42 points each. Elizabeth May follows with an Index score of 17 points with Gilles Duceppe currently last among the five leaders at 10 points.
The numbers show that the Conservatives have entered the campaign from a definite position of strength over the opposition. But, with the Conservatives mounting a leadership driven campaign they need to be wary of how the 27% who answered None/Unsure on the best PM question break. Despite Harper’s strong leadership numbers, the Liberal brand remains strong trailing by only five points nationally. Any significant missteps by Harper could potentially push this block of voters over to the opposition.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20 for 200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on August 27, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=978, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 37% (+4)
- Liberal Party 32% (-3)
- NDP 13% (-4)
- BQ 9% (+1)
- Green Party 9% (+2)
- Undecided 19% (+3)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,200,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 38% (+2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 15% (-2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 14% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-2)
- None of them 8% (-2)
- Unsure 19% (+7)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score] (N=1,200, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 103 (+10)
- Stephane Dion 42 (-6)
- Jack Layton 42 (+2)
- Elizabeth May 17 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 10 (-2)
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Nik, if you continue polling on this basis, you will have let the country and yo... more
rsharp (Québec) 11 Sep 20:12
This is excellent news and seems to be exactly in line with what I have been eco... more
psiclone (British Columbia) 11 Sep 14:40
Nik is the only numbers I ever look at, he's always dead on. I think Nik, you... more
tdot416 (Ontario) 11 Sep 16:35
This pole is closer than I thought it would be... wait until the fuss over the ... more
mathilda (New Brunswick) 11 Sep 17:29
Its not about big brother telling you anything, its about being able to control ... more
Luc VNO (Ontario) 11 Sep 20:51
I was hoping this would not resort to derogatory comments and we could have a ci... more
fortescue (Ontario) 11 Sep 22:09
Comments
psiclone
This is excellent news and seems to be exactly in line with what I have been ecountering. I for one am definitely voting Conservative and speaking as a fromer Liberal I would suggest they investigate doing the same. I left the LPC after Martin and crew threw the Putsch on him. Despite much of the negative spin from the opposition I think more and more people will be giving the Conservatives their support as they are no longer buying into the old and tired Liberal Fear and Shmear tactics so when they go to the polls and look at the ballot and choose the new PM and rightly so it will more than likely be Harper as he is definitely and by far and away the more effective, efficient and capable leader than Dion. The only other leader I think that has earned the voters respect is Layton and in a way though I am Conservative I hope the NDP does well also! Lest people forget Dion had 44 opportunities to speak and actually vote against the gov't but sat on his hands for one main reason ' he was adfraid to lose ' well I have a feeling that his feeling was correct.
[updated Thu Sep 11 14:40:58 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 14:40
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
cmay
Thank you for getting these numbers out Nik. You always have a good read on the pulse of the electorate.
[updated Thu Sep 11 14:45:56 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 14:45
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Fernando Minna
Given the changes since Aug 27 I'm guessing all the huff'n and puff'n about fixed election dates was ignored by the public as nothing more than inside baseball.
[updated Thu Sep 11 14:54:17 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 14:54
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
Quite understandable projections in as much that Harper is known although his leadership may not suit all, he has more good points than bad. Harper is a mighty good tactician and I chuckle at his method for getting the indecisive Liberal opposition away from biting at his heels. If anyone doubted Harper's ability to manouvre, they should think back to Emmerson and his appointment of Fortin. Harper may be in striking distance of a majority and the Liberals will be in "leadership mode" again and a strong Liberal leader, who does not sit on his hands and does not propose new taxes, will be a a major concern for the next election four years down the road.
In my opinion, Harper has several issues to overcome that are not sitting too well with the electorate. If he chooses to govern from the far right rather than the centre right, then that will be a problem. Hospital wait times is still an issue as is the Afghanistan War and the uncertainty for future commitment that seems to be developing today around the conflict. In supporting the conflict, the Liberals and Conservatives at this time, are undifferentiated. Only the NDP nationally say NO to the Afghanistan War and they are likely to get my vote on this issue. Perhaps the NDP would be a better opposition than the Liberals at this juncture in our history. The only restraint I see is that the Official Opposition will eventually become government.
[updated Thu Sep 11 15:57:19 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 15:57
14 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Regina Beach Boy
Hey Nik,
I learned a long time ago that your numbers are by far the most accurate read of public opinion out there, I've seen it time and time again.
As far as the numbers go, my only reservation is how well the NDP is doing, I have a creeping suspicion that they will be the surprise of the election and the story which will have the pollsters scratching their heads.
[updated Thu Sep 11 16:00:26 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 16:00
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
tdot416
Nik is the only numbers I ever look at, he's always dead on.
I think Nik, you should compare these numbers to the results in 2006, everyone is jumping up and down that Harper is going to take a majority, but based on the 2006 results, that the Liberals are polling better then 2006, they should make some gains, and also the Conservatives, but it wont be enough to put Harper over the magic number for a majority.
I'm going to interested in seeing how the recent gaffes by the Conservatives (Puffin, Williams, and today's Afghan emails) hit the Conservative, if at all.
[updated Thu Sep 11 16:35:16 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 16:35
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Nik. Why not ask simple questions that would give a better indication of the voter's intent.
1. Have you decided who will get your vote?
2. Are you likely to change your mind?
3. If any party is on the verge of a majority would you vote strategically?
4. Would you prefer a majority to bring stability to parliament?
Asking questions about who they think would make a better P.M. does little to predict who they will actually vote for. K.I.S.S. might be a better forecaster of how the election will turn out if that is the reason for doing the poll in the first place.
[updated Thu Sep 11 17:37:33 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 17:37
48 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Nik, if you continue polling on this basis, you will have let the country and your profession down. Your questions turn this into a personality contest, when anyone who knows anything knows that Harper and his pit bull team's brutal, unfair and actually ridiculous attack ads on Dion have worked: bought lock, stock and barrel by media pundits and, through them, ordinary Canadians.
Best PM? What the hell does that mean? I am in a state of disbelief that your respondents considered Harper more trustworthy, competent and visionary. I'd have to see exactly your process to comprehend such a response because it is so undeserving.
But then, McCain is hanging tough down south despite immaculate flaws and failures. Imagine: McCain and Harper. Now, that would put the world on a most dangerous course.
So, for now, I can't imagine. And you have to fix your questions!
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:12:30 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:12
31 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
rsharp,
I don't take these numbers too seriously -- remember that on the "factor questions" that the undecided vary from 26 to 31 percent. That is a lot of voters who could swing either in favour of the CPC or LPC. However, the party that is in government is at a disadvantage IMHO because the CPC should quite naturally push people toward a decision -- not lead to increased indecisiveness.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:26:31 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:26
Thanks for a reply that didn't attack me Phew!
Polls are such a drag. aren't they? We might want to eliminate them but we can't. We might want them to ask different questions, but they won't. The fact is, most polls are rigged by those in power. Surprise!
So, which polls are honest?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:44:52 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:44
larryl
ronald.I can't understand how you can see things so clearly and still believe in Harper. It must be your loyalty to the old P.C. party.
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:02:52 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:02
RonaldODowd
larryl,
If only the party establishment was as rock solid as I am. They have discovered that in recent weeks!
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:15:35 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:15
elf
yes elections should be about ideas and policy not about personality - Canadians have never before denigrated learning and intellect but in this election Harper has brought intellect to the fore and tried to make it a negative - I am curious how one would justify this to one's children - what lessons does it give them ? personally I like intellect I want to think the leader of my counrtry is respectful and intelligent and that I can respect them as a person - this disgusting lack of respect for one's opponent makes me very sad for Canada
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:34:55 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:34
gretag
rsharp, I agree with your comments. I can't imagine how one can consider Harper trustworthy, given his words then and now and so many things. But what I see in the numbers is most likely those who say they will vote Conservative, think Harper is the best PM and rate him high on any good qualities mentioned. In other words, a lot of the Harper's high rating on trustworthiness is simply another way of saying I'm voting Conservative for a substantial group of people. Meanwhile, the support for Dion is softer within Liberal voters. I know a lot of people planning to vote Liberal who have doubts about Dion. They haven't actually met Dion or seen much of him.
As to the correlation with voting intentions and Harper's qualities, Nik can correct me if I am wrong, as I assume this information is cross-correlated.
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:02:58 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:02
WestViking
"Canadians have never before denigrated learning and intellect . . . . . . . . . . "
You obviously don't remember Trudeau-mania or the Mulroney sweep or before that the Diefenbaker sweep. Elections tend to be emotional rather than cerebral events as the originating post illustrates..
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:47:25 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:47
elf
as a person who was in the UK when you had the King - that's what we called Trudeau - I do not recall those elections however the ones I have experienced here in Canada I think have been relatively tame compared to the nastiness i am seeing now
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:52:50 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:52
Foxer
Well the last one was far worse than this, on both sides. It was a real serious attack campaign, where martin pulled every nasty and unsubstatiated comment about harper he could, and harper wasn't much better back. And the one before it was similar.
Prior to that we had the campbell - chretien fight which got nasty.
And there were others going back.
Politics generally isn't about being kind to the other guy and sadly this attack stuff works, so i guess we're partly to blame.
[updated Thu Sep 11 23:08:23 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 23:08
Foxer
How is 'best pm' hard to understand? 'Who is the person best suited to take on the duties and responsibilities of the job of prime minister'. That's not complex.
And it shouldn't shock you that it's harper - polls have been saying that for years, including nic's LAST poll i believe.
[updated Thu Sep 11 23:05:33 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 23:05
My point was that two of the three questions are about "leadership," when those questions have been fundamentally skewed by Mr. Harper's two plus years of mean and indeed brutal attacks on Mr. Dion's character, in no small part because most in the mainstream media bought the Tory line.
I believe that if you probe Canadians on the respective visions, competence and trustworthiness of Mssrs. Harper and Dion, the responses would be quite different. A failed neocon vision vs. Green Shift and social justice. Competence, when Mr. Dion hasn't even been PM yet? Trustworthy, when Mr. Harper's hidden agenda is still there and still very, very scary?
And what about, "Who would be the most respectful, caring and transparent or who has the best team?"
[updated Fri Sep 12 08:54:55 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 08:54
Foxer
Ok - I see where you're going now.
Well - in fairness several polls have asked about trustworthiness, competance and vision specifically. And really, 'best pm' is a competence question as much as anything else. It's a question that asks who will be able to do the job best.
When these questions are asked specifically, harper and dion always tie on questions of trustworthiness and honesty, so you're right there. But on competence and vision the CPC has always won out.
And realistically - at this point we're looking at hiring a new Prime Minister. The primary question kind of has to be 'who's the best guy for the job'?
And the fact is leadership is huge. It determines if you're going to be able to organize your party to actually deliver what you promise. Look at the campaigns themselves - all three leaders have their vision and have to deliver their message effectively. That means running a well organized campaign. All three of them have had lots of time to prepare, dion's had more than 2 years to get his party organized. But it's PAINFULLY obvious that while layton and harper did manage to get their teams ready, dion's campaign suffers from a lack of organization. He could not lead his team to prepare for this race effectively, so his vision is not becoming reality. That raises serious questions about how he will be able to turn his election promises into effective reality as well. If he can't organize and lead a campaign, how will he organize and lead a gov't?
Harpers ads weren't brutal in the slightest. They simply said - he isn't a leader. And they would not have worked if people didn't already see that in dion. Just like the liberal 'hidden agenda' stuff worked when people actually believed that harper might have one, and are not working now that they see he didnt'.
People want a strong leader, and they're not seeing it. I said in another post that what dion needs right now more than anything is to display a strong act of leadership. He's let harper push him and the party around like a hockey puck for the last two years, and he needs to show he can play the game and lead his team.
[updated Fri Sep 12 11:14:53 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 11:14
hollinm
rsharp...refer to my comments to larryl. Questioning an experienced pollster as Nik with his track record will not win you any friends.
Dion is in real trouble and no wonder. Watching the tight lipped angry professor flail about talking about things that have no interest to Canadians i.e. the court challenges program and not being able to put any meat on the green shift bones is going to sink him in this election.
I have no idea whether Harper will get a majority or not but despite the so called gaffes that the media is focusing on because this is a boring campaign from their perspective Harper will win the election and Dion will be back teaching school.
However, you will be happy when Dion comes out with his far left wing policies next week and then we will see how things evolve. However, the way Harper has positioned the Liberals they will fit his characterization that they are tax and spend Liberals.
[updated Fri Sep 12 08:20:26 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 08:20
This isn't about winning friends. I have the greatest of respect for Nik but don't like the focus of his poll, this time, because it's not a level playing field for Mr. Dion.
And I think your prophesies about Mr. Dion and the Liberal team are perhaps getting ahead of the game. Mr. Dion has had a good week while Mr. Harper's has been very bad.
[updated Fri Sep 12 09:28:35 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 09:28
hollinm
Dion has had a good week? Where was Dion on the newscasts. A clip of him looking angry and calling Harper names. Talking about reinstating the court challenges program may sell in Quebec but in the rest of Canada it is a non starter.
Dion cannot defend his own green shaft because it is too complicated and has social engineering policies tied into it and has no targets. Harper is right. It will be inflationary, cause higher interest rates and cause job losses as companies try to protect their bottom lines. The use of revenue neutrality as a defence is not credible. Why do it if everyone is going to be made whole in the end. It's a myth. In fact I would go further and say it is deception.
Like I said to you in the previous post. Hang on until next week. Dion will come out with his far left wing policies which will appeal to you and some other Canadians who believe in cradle to grave government.
[updated Fri Sep 12 11:07:16 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 11:07
Hollinm, I just read your vitriol on The Star's website. You get around.
Let's see:
1) an election on false pretenses, not about a dysfunctional Parliament at all but because Mr. Harper was going to lose the by-elections, faced increasing Parliamentary scrutiny of his many scandals, the economy and war are tanking, Obama's almost certain win down south and on and on.
2) dumb ads about the new warm and cuddly Mr. Harper, and more personal attacks on Mr. Dion character, that have only focused more and more attention on this bullying ways
3) sharp reversals on the Green party participating in the debates and the war in Afghanistan, because the polls tell him it's the only way he has a chance of winning
4) apologizing for his gaffe, suspending his communications director and on and on.
As I said, supported by facts like these, Mr. Harper has had a very bad week indeed. And as larryl says, the week isn't even over.
[updated Fri Sep 12 12:05:12 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 12:05
hollinm
rsharp...I have no vitriol...just stating my opinion like the rest of the crew on the Star. Speaking of the Star I am surprised at how many comments are favourable to Harper and his government.
-there were no false pretenses about the dysfunctional parliament. Anybody watching Question Period, committee hearings on so called scandals (despite the fact they are before the courts) etc showed there was no desire by the opposition to work with the government. Harper wasn't going to turn himself into a left winger to appease the opposition.
Losing the by elections? Come on you need to do better than that.
Calling a general election to avoid by elections. That's crazy talk. It does not make sense. If he is going to lose them it will be in a general or by election. Six of one half dozen of the other.
The Canadian economy is doing fine with net jobs being created, inflation under control and interest rates continuing to be low. If Harper had not taken the action he did last Fall we would be in a recession today. He acted more quickly than the U.S. There is a problem in the manufacturing sector and Harper has tried to help GM and Ford by providing funding for green cars. However, no subsidizing losses of those companies in the manufacturing sector that need to adapt to the global market.
I don't think the ads are dumb. Harper is a family man, is personable when not in the public eye. Norman Spector was on TV this morning saying that is how Harper is when he is not on the public stage. Hopefully he will continue after the election to convince Canadians that he is not this cold hearted person that the media has portrayed him to be.
Kind of wimpy to be talking about bullying. Politics is a blood sport. The ads reflect Dion's own words. Because he looks wimpish and nerdy that's not Harper's fault.
Harper supported Layton on the May thing and when everybody caved then he was not going to be standing alone. I thought it was a good move. However, he still says there are two Liberals in the debate which is unfair. May will regret being included in the debate because outside of the environment she has no realistic plan for the country. That will be evident in the debates.
The Harris Decima poll this morning shows Cons 41%, Libs 26%. It is early days and we shall see but Harper is confident and there will be no more eruptions from the war room.
[updated Fri Sep 12 15:29:28 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 15:29
hollimn, you lose. You justify your bully, beyond belief. Canadians want a "kinder, gentler" (wo)man to run the country.
[updated Wed Sep 17 18:19:39 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 18:19
Where did you you go hollinm? Debating the character of our next PM is not to your liking?
[updated Thu Sep 18 01:01:09 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 01:01
hollinm
rsharp... I sure don't want a wimp running the country. A kinder, gentler...come on. Get real. This is the real world and it is a tough one that needs strong leadership and it sure isn't Dion.
This man when asked yesterday if he would put a windfall tax on oil companies did not know what a windfall tax was, said he would answer the question in his own way and then went on a tirade talking about fossil fuels. So much for his knowledge of economics and taxation. Look at Stephen Taylor's blog to see for yourself.
Secondly this is a man who does not know what a car pool is.
Clearly he is an elitist of the highest order who cannot relate to ordinary Canadians and what their needs are.
Now we have the "stars" coming out to provide cover for him. Can you imagine the leaders' tour and he has his former rival leadership candidates coming out to speak for him because he is so inept and the Liberal party is desperate? It friggin' amazing. This is who you want to be PM of Canada?
Dion is running around the country trying to buy the election with billions of dollars in promises while at the same time the country is supposedly in deficit. How does this make sense if you think about it? If we are in deficit then he will need billions in new revenue to pay for all these campaign promises if he is really serious. The carbon tax will only raise $15 billion and is suppose to be revenue neutral and therefore returned to Canadians right?
Canadians have taken the measure of Stephane Dion and have found him lacking.
[updated Thu Sep 18 11:01:55 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 11:01
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Stephen Taylor the bulldog tory....yea he's sure creddible. Lets face it hollinm you're a western bigot.
[updated Thu Sep 18 11:05:17 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 11:05
hollinm
TPQ....name calling doesn't change the political reality. Dion is going down to defeat and could even end up coming in 3rd place behind the NDP.
Notice Dion is getting very little media coverage on his announcements. Its because nobody believes he will ever get the chance to implement them.
Its a race for 2nd place. EH HA!
[updated Thu Sep 18 12:01:27 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 12:01
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
You're another one who should keep a lot of kleenix availabe for election night. Harper is going down fast in quebec and that will kill him off. He's also slipping in key Ontario ridings he needs to win badly.......keep up the bluff though its fun to watch.
[updated Thu Sep 18 12:29:06 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 12:29
Your personal attacks on Mr. Dion define you and all Tories. What is it about this man you find so distasteful, especially in comparison to Mr. Harper?
Let's see. Intelligent? Visionary? Team Player? Honest? Fair? Transparent? i give the nod the Mr. Dion over Mr. Harper on all counts.
And I could add lots more.
[updated Thu Sep 18 22:00:25 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 22:00
hollinm
rsharp...I guess the discussion is over. You have your view point and needless to say we will not agree. Pretty high praise for someone you don't know. I guess its easy to impress you and the rest of your left wing buddies.
[updated Fri Sep 19 00:24:09 EDT 2008]
19 Sep 00:24
Interesting article on undecided voters intentions :
OTTAWA -- Having a tough time choosing between Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion as another federal election looms?
A new study suggests you've probably already made up your mind -- even if you don't know it yet.
The study, to be published Friday in the journal Science, suggests people who believe themselves to be undecided on an issue have actually already made a choice unconsciously.
The study was conducted late last year by a team of researchers at the University of Western Ontario (UWO) and the University of Padova in Italy.
The team tested the "automatic mental associations" of 129 residents of Vicenza, Italy, about a controversial expansion of an American military base in their community.
In a computer test, participants were asked to rapidly rate a series of words, interspersed with pictures of the base, as either positive or negative. One week later, when participants made a conscious choice to support or oppose the base expansion, researchers found that those choices invariably reflected the initial automatic associations.
Bertram Gawronski, Canadian research chair in social psychology at UWO and the study's senior author, said the test enabled researchers to accurately predict the choices of 70 per cent of participants who initially said they were undecided.
It's not so much that people don't know their own minds, Gawronski said in an interview. Rather, when people are making a decision, "there's already a seed or root set at a much earlier point and people may not be aware of these seeds."
Gawronski said there's some debate among researchers about whether automatic mental associations are genuinely unconscious. He believes it's more precise to say that automatic associations "are indeed consciously accessible in the sense that they produce some kind of positive or negative gut reaction."
"People can feel those gut reactions but what people aren't aware of is how these automatic associations . . . influence their perceptions of reality. That is where the unconscious part comes in."
For instance, in a televised leaders' debate, an undecided voter with favourable automatic mental associations about Dion is likely to conclude that the Liberal leader is the winner, whereas someone with favourable associations about Harper will likely pick the prime minister.
"It's this biased or distorted perception . . . that then leads them to conclude, `OK, this is the better person and this is the one I'm going to vote for."'
None of which means politicians should give up trying to win over undecided voters. Automatic associations can be eclipsed, Gawronski said, if one leader makes a big mistake or another scores a public relations coup.
There are some technical difficulties to be overcome before the research can be applied to public opinion polling . But Gawronski said it could eventually make it easier for pollsters to predict how the undecided will ultimately vote and, consequently, to predict the outcome of elections with greater accuracy.
He said some researchers in the United States are already using automatic association tests to determine why undecided voters seem to be flocking to Republican presidential nominee John McCain, rather than Democrat Barack Obama. The results could prove controversial.
While there is no data as yet to prove it, Gawronski said there is anecdotal evidence that many Americans are uncomfortable with the idea of an African-American president.
And in past automatic association tests, he said even people who consciously express "strong egalitarian convictions" have sometimes betrayed unconscious bias against African-Americans.
[updated Fri Sep 12 16:09:52 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 16:09
Things that make you go Hmmmm
In every province/region (that’s right “every”) the conservatives are either within the margin of error of their 2006 election showing or worse. Put another way, there is no part of the country, no corner of Canada, that has warmed to the Conservatives in over 2 years.
Provinces / Regions where the Tories are doing worse than 2006:
Statistically significant:
Ontario (down by 2.3% even despite a ridiculous poll released by Environics which put the Tories at a whopping 41% provincially. If we factor out that one poll, they’re down by 4.4%.)
Alberta (down by 6.4%)
Statistically insignificant:
British Columbia (down by 2.5%)
Atlantic Canada (down by 2.3%)
Prairies [MB & SK] (down by 2.0%)
For those of you keeping track at home, that’s not particularly good news for the Tories in parts of Canada representing 75% of the population.!
[updated Fri Sep 12 16:33:40 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 16:33
MRM
attila - Where did you get this data from?
[updated Sat Sep 13 09:12:22 EDT 2008]
13 Sep 09:12
(moderator)
RSharp - Nik here (the pollster) - Thanks for the post. You should know that the "personality questions" are asked after the ballot question. My preference is not to introduce any content prior to the ballot in order to get a clean read on the electorate. Cheers, NJN
[updated Sun Sep 14 06:43:05 EDT 2008]
14 Sep 06:43
So as not to ask a leading question. In my view, that is why your polls are more accurate. And it happens to be ethical!
Don't tell anybody. It would be bad for business.
Cheers,
Richard
[updated Wed Sep 17 09:56:46 EDT 2008]
17 Sep 09:56
I wouldn't trust Mr. Harper with a bean bag. He's an incompetent fool with a failed agenda. His vision of an emasculated federal government is precisely why he's in tough, this time. I can only hope Canadian voters see the light in time.
[updated Thu Sep 18 00:29:46 EDT 2008]
18 Sep 00:29
JOSTOPA
NiK,
Two things i would like your opinion on...
(1) Now im not sure if this is still a law..but i'm curious about your opinion on this. What do you think about the law that bans polls on election day.
(2) Should leaders go negative...or be aggressive to gain support.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:22:55 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:22
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Hewlett
I'm surprised your poll shows such a close race. Most other polls show the Conservatives have a much better lead. Canada needs a majority government.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:24:13 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:24
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Rosebud in BC
Nik - When you make your phone calls do you call any cell phone numbers or just lan lines? I think a lot of younger voters use only cell phones and it would be interesting to know if they are being surveyed as well.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:26:38 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:26
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fortescue
Is there any details for the critical 905 area surrounding Toronto?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:29:10 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:29
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Greg Staples
Since Liberal support in Ontario tends be stronger in urban centres, especially in Toronto, what are the implications for suburban and rural ridings with the closeness in polling between the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario? Do you have breakdowns in 905?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:33:46 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:33
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My puzzle is why have Liberals had such a precipitous drop? There is no new scandal.
Is it just the result of the Conservatives straw man ad blitz smearing the Liberals?
I would have expected the Conservatives to take a hit for calling the election breaking their own law.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:33:59 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:33
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Luc VNO
I don't understand why people have such a hard time getting their heads around the Green shift. Reducing a tax you HAVE to pay, the income tax, & moving the burden to pollution, a tax you might not have to pay, allows one to control how much tax they pay. If you make the right choices, you pay less tax. The only way to control how much income tax you pay is to make less income. I have a grade 9 education & even I can get my head around that idea.
Luc Vienneau
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:38:38 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:38
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fortescue
Did she get all the Liberal talking points in?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:39:11 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:39
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Hey Nik!
I have to say, your poll was the most accurate last election.
My question, specifically, has to do with the amount of individuals it takes to bump up a percentage point. Based on your poll, Harper is 3 percent short of majority territory. High many people have to vote in favour for that number to budge 3 percentage points? Approximately.
By the way, it's too bad other polls can't be as accurate as yours are. What would make their methodology different?
http://returnofthetory.btblogs.ca
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:40:59 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:40
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tyler
Nik,
There is a prevailing assumption amongst political operatives that the Liberals typically need a 23-25 point spread with the NDP in order to secure left swinging ridings, Ottawa-Centre, Trinity-Spadina, Toronto-Danforth, London-Fanshawe, etc. What do the Ontario numbers reveal about the NDP - Liberal race in these types of ridings?
Thanks for keeping us up to date with the most reliable barometer.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:42:06 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:42
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Dean Billings
1. Are there any ethnic breakdowns showing any interesting changes?
2. Are the Liberals down primarily in cities or in rural (diesel dependent) areas?
3. Are the centre-left parties getting most of their votes in the same ridings?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:43:29 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:43
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RonaldODowd
Nik,
With roughly a third of the voters undecided, the debates should be crucial in winnowing out the undecided and establishing a firm polling trend. The leader that makes a mistake or who does not perform up to par with the others will be toast.
As Mulroney said: the leaders may have no option but to roll the dice based on their individual debate performances!
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:43:49 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:43
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lewatson
Nik,
A couple of questions:
1) As part of your polling do you ask how the participant to rate themselves in terms of their political knowledge (eg. platforms, issues, etc)? What percentage of polles do you feel are truly informed?
2) What do you feel is the impact of the undecided vote? Does that percentage represent those who will not vote or will those votes be placed by the end of the campaign?
Thanks!
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:44:47 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:44
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John Roozendaal
Nik,
It may come as a surprise to many in Toronto and other Liberal enclaves but the western half of the country and other areas such as the north have achieved full employment ie almost no one able to work is without opportunity to work. This helps Harper greatly and it looks like Quebec citizens and persons living in Ontario out side of Toronto seem to want the same economic prosperity.
The economy, common sense and a respect for individuals and families to decide their own affairs, may account for much of the success to date for Harper's party.
The green movement seems to represent envy versus some fake cause to save the universe from economic prosperity.
Peace and Love,
John R
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:48:48 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:48
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Jean-Marc
Nik,
Is there a hunger among Canadians for debate on real substantive issues (climate crisis; canada in the world; poverty; economic competitiveness and productivity)? Why are the leaders talking so little about them? Why is the media so obsessed with the horse racing and latest gaffes?
Thanks
Jean-Marc
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:50:09 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:50
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Blarghman
Nik, just wondering whether you see the Liberals making up any ground in Quebec, even part of the way back to 2004 numbers, and who that would come at the expense of? I don't see any way the Libs can form government getting ~20% in Quebec again, and Dion is likely not too popular with the voters the Cons and NDP are picking up from the BQ, so I'm not sure where his growth is.
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:55:16 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:55
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Luc VNO
What about the non-voting 40% of Canadians, have you ever tried polling them on their views?
[updated Thu Sep 11 20:55:47 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 20:55
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msf
Dear Nik,
I enjoyed your overview of the numbers. They are certainly thought provoking and I value your input in providing context to the bare numbers, especially given your indepth knowledge of what questions were asked and how the numbers seem to be breaking down by province/sub-region.
On the other hand, I do feel that you overstepped your explicative role by expounding on what the parties/leaders ought to do. In particular, your responses to 2 callers/bloggers on the topic of the Liberal Green Tax. How objective are you being when you (i) appear to tell one caller that he understands the numbers and (ii) provide an indepth response to one caller on what Stephan Dion needs to do to sell his Green Tax platform?
Maybe one famous expression should read... Lies, Statistics and Polls.
In all fairness to you I probably ought to mention that you did qualify the first comment by, in your next breath saying, "a man who thinks he understands the numbers ..."
Congratulations on having the most accurate polls last time around.
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:24:06 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:24
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Naci Sey
First, I'm delighted you're back doing election polling again. Each evening during the last election campaign, I made sure to check "Nik on the Numbers" and your appearance on CPAC. No other pollster can match your results.
Now to my point... I work with people on very low income. Their (and my) income is so low that having a phone, either landline or cell, is impossible. Instead, our communications link is via the Internet and email. A survey by Statistics Canada which was completed in December and made available April 2008 revealed that a growing number of people don't have phone service. While the number is still low, under 5%, the fact that it grew substantially from the previous survey reflects the increase in the depth of poverty in this country.
My question concerning your polling is this: Do you make attempts to reach voters who haven't a phone? We do vote and would like our opinions considered.
[updated Thu Sep 11 21:32:07 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 21:32
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Pelagie
Since most of us form our opinions of the leaders through the media, I would like to know if you ever ask which form of media they use: television, radio, newspaper or web, to inform themselves. I find it amazing that the highest percentage of respondents would choose Harper as the best PM, the most trustworthy,competent and having the best vision. Just what is his vision? Do the scandals and lies of the Tories have no impact on voters?
It is not hard to determine that this opinion is gleaned from watching television. For 2 1/2 years now CTV and to a lesser extent CBC, have been repeating Harper's attack ads on Dion, non stop. The MSM have had very little access to Harper and when they do, they do not hold him to account. Dion on the other hand, is asked the same humiliating questions, over and over. The playing field has not been even and the electorate are woefully uninformed, thus, Harper's high approval numbers.
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:04:36 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:04
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NeedtoVote
Well I must say I always look forward to your numbers but tonight I was definetly taken aback. What happened to NDP support exactly? I've heard many people tell me they were switching their votes from Liberal to NDP. Yet I don't see a rise in support in Ontario, instead I see a decline. As a person who supports to NDP myself, I know these voters are not going to the Conservatives, so where are they going? I can see some having gone to the Greens because of the May issue, and some possibly to the Liberals, but where did the rest of them go? Just yesterday a poll had them pegged at 13% in Ontario, now your poll is saying 10%. What's going on? Looking forward to seeing the numbers for each of the western provinces individually. I would like to know where the NDP stands in BC and Manitoba! Keep up the good work.
[updated Thu Sep 11 22:35:42 EDT 2008]
11 Sep 22:35
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Peter3
The Ontario numbers are startling. The 27th Conservative numbers were on the low side for polls in that period, and the new numbers are close to what others are seeing, but the new NDP numbers are either out of whack or showing some serious trouble for Mr. Layton in his home province. I think this is the first poll I've seen that was entirely done during or after the whole Elizabeth May brouhaha. I will be very interested to see what the Strategic Counsel battleground tracking polls report for Ontario in the same period.
It seems that Mr. Harper's leadership numbers are not pushing him into majority territory. I agree that other polls show that Mr. Layton has some mo going, so this poll is intriguing. If these numbers turn out to be a blip, he could be able to do something at the Liberals expense, if they don't get themselves in gear pdq.
So far this is a campaign in search of a hero. I suspect that if the debate putsch by the Greens had not knocked him off message and angered an as yet undetermined number of potential supporters, Mr. Layton would be the most likely candidate for the role. Life is what happens while you're making other plans, eh?
[updated Fri Sep 12 01:11:26 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 01:11
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Non-aligned in Toronto
I would caution everyone that this is the first of a nightly rolling poll with a small sample size (400) and a large margin of error. I'd wait to see the first "roll" completed which would consist of three installments. the rolled in results would have a sample size of 1200 and a margin of error of less than 3%. Then as the poll rolls forward a trend will become evident. This method has been phenominal in identifying election night results over the past few years, and I'm a true believer (give or take 2.5%, LOL)
Any one segment is not a reliable indicator of the public pulse.
[updated Fri Sep 12 12:16:45 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 12:16
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kferaday
Nik,
Wondering if you have any comment on the Harris Decima poll that shows the Conservatives at 41%, Liberals at 26%. Why is there such a big difference?
[updated Fri Sep 12 13:20:52 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 13:20
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VIF
Bonjour Nik,
Comme tu le sais, il est difficile d'avoir de l'informations de qualités (400 personnes interviewé) sur les intentions de votes dans la région atlantique. La seule façon de se faire une idée sur les intentions de votes consiste à comparer les sondages qui sont proches dans le temps afin d'accepter les résultats s'ils sont similaires ou les rejeter s'ils sont trop différents (il est aussi utile de re-pondérer les résultats à l'aide de la méta-analyse et d'interpréter à nouveau la marge d'erreur). Voilà pourquoi j'aimerais que vous publiez la répartition régionale des intentions de vote pour l'Atlantique et le nombre de personnes interviewé, comme vous le fait si bien habituellement, dans votre bulletin : CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking. Merci !
[updated Fri Sep 12 13:50:02 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 13:50
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So Nik is committed to a polling strategy that tracks nationally, when everyone knows regional tracking is all that matters. And to polling on three questions, two of which are essentially about "leadership," where the playing field is anything but level because of Mr. Harper's 2+ years of attacks on Mr. Dion's character, media complicity in same, etc.
Only in Canada? Pity.
[updated Fri Sep 12 17:47:06 EDT 2008]
12 Sep 17:47
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