The latest Nanos poll completed Wednesday night shows that the Liberals and Conservatives are gripped in a deadlock (LP 35%, CP 33%, NDP 17%, BQ 8%, GP 7%).
Of note, in the province of Quebec, support for the Bloc has decreased by nine points in the last quarter, with the NDP picking up most of that support.
On the best Prime Minister front, Stephen Harper still enjoys a significant advantage over Stephane Dion.
A potential election poses risks for both the Conservatives and the Liberals. Prime Minister Harper seems ready to risk his mandate while his party is tied with the Liberals. Liberal leader Stephane Dion has not been embraced by Canadians.
Methodology
Polling between August 20th and August 27th, 2008. (Random Telephone Survey of 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). A survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed in May 2008.
Committed Voters - Canada (N=846, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)
- Liberal Party 35% (+1)
- Conservative Party 33% (NC)
- NDP 17% (+2)
- BQ 8% (-3)
- Green Party 7% (-1)
- (*Note: Undecided 16%)
Committed Voters - Quebec (N=214, MoE ± 6.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- BQ 31% (-9)
- Conservative Party 25% (+2)
- Liberal Party 24% (+2)
- NDP 13% (+8)
- Green Party 7% (-2)
- (*Note: Undecided 14%)
Best PM Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Read and Rotate]
Canada (N=1,000, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Stephen Harper 36% (+2)
- Jack Layton 17% (+1)
- Stephane Dion 15% (NC)
- Gilles Duceppe 5% (-2)
- Elizabeth May 4% (-3)
- None/ Unsure 23% (NC)
The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our new polling portal website at: www.nanosresearch.com.
It looks like we are headed to an election. What are your thoughts on what will happen?
Cheers,
NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
How devastating must be the Conservative internal polls if these latest Nanos nu... more
gerry l (British Columbia) 29 Aug 04:40
Let me get this straight. Mr. Harper intends to cause an election in violation ... more
rsharp (Québec) 29 Aug 03:51
First off the personal numbers for Dion continue to reflect the effects of attac... more
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments) (Ontario) 29 Aug 06:30
Plus, Harper wants to avoid handing Dion momentum by short circuiting the 4 bi-e... more
gerry l (British Columbia) 29 Aug 14:28
Hello Larryl: Yes, our Canadian political scene is an unfortunate mess. An il... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 29 Aug 16:15
Hello Foxer:---Yes, you are right about a change in leadership and I see that as... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 29 Aug 16:18
Comments
graham murray
We're headed to the polls, right enough, despite Stephen Harper's lame explanations for mangling the spirit if not also the letter of his law to set a four-year election schedule. And it is surreal for him to tell the Tuk residents providing a human backdrop for the clips offered for broadcast in Wednesday's TV news that the distribution of seats in the Commons is not likely to change much. Let's put this nonsense aside until we've all fully vented on the dreadful summer so maany Canadians have endured. I don't want to engage the next federal election until I've exhausted my frustration with incessant low-pressure systems interspersed with ferocious monsoons.
[updated Fri Aug 29 02:37:08 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 02:37
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Let me get this straight. Mr. Harper intends to cause an election in violation of his own law and even though he expects the same (minority government) result. Could he perhaps realize that things would only get worse if Parliament resumed, with further scrutiny of his government's many scandals and failed, neocon policies?
I've just watched Obama's acceptance speech and it is clear as day that change is indeed coming to America and to the world, and for the better. That Mr. Harper is yesterday's man will be increasingly evident.
Who will make the best Prime Minister? Depends how the question is framed. I think in terms of the (wo)man with the best judgement, the most trustworthy, the greatest respect for others and, most importantly, the most competent team.
The mainstream media will continue to harp on Mr. Harper's alleged "leadership" skills, however misplaced. .A lot of good it's done us: war not peace, environmental stonewalling, fewer resources and rights for the disadvantaged, the refusal to use government as a countervailing force in recessionary times, blind adherence to corporate agenda of all sorts, etc.
But the Liberals will be fighting the NDP, Green and Bloc parties for the progressive vote vs. a united right wing monolith, including an overwhelmingly pro-Harper mainstream media. The opposition parties appear incapable of even simple deals in support of what's most important - defeating the Conservatives. That is why Mr. Harper's prediction of another minority is likely true.
That will be a shame because it forestalls the hope and change we so desperately need, too
[updated Fri Aug 29 03:51:46 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 03:51
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Tom Good
Ah---the fine art of Hara-Kiri-----No, I do not think either man is that stupid as to enter into a no win situation. I believe Harper, quite rightly, is calling the bluff to Dion's two-step fancy footwork. Both the Conservatives and the Liberals are playing like children in the House, political children that, I believe, we would all like to whip a little sense into, if possible. I could be wrong but I guess this is all political bluster and the election will be October 19, next year. One thing is certain no matter when the election date is called, either Harper or Dion will be replaced, after that election, as leader of their party and we may, thankfully, get a little closer to normalcy in the House.
To be facetious, Michelle Jean could name Harper as the leader of the Liberals and send Dion to the Senate----Ho Ho
[updated Fri Aug 29 04:03:41 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 04:03
30 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gerry l
How devastating must be the Conservative internal polls if these latest Nanos numbers are any indication. Only the prospect of worse support levels to come pushes Harper to call an election he readily admits he cannot win.
Finally, Canadians will have an oppourtunity to pass judgement on this Prime Minister.
[updated Fri Aug 29 04:40:49 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 04:40
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
First off the personal numbers for Dion continue to reflect the effects of attack ads the Tories roll out regularly and not his real competence. It is sad that we are getting such low ball and dirty politics from the Tories. Paybacks will be hell for them as the Liberal "team" will roll out some pretty damning stuff about Harper during the course of an election. They have Iggy and Petersen plus some other heavy hitters just itching to go after Steve the liar.
The Libs will spend their ad money wisely in an election campaign and that will include serious attacks on Harper's credibility,honesty,ethics and bully tactics like calling the election early.
Secondly, the popularity numbers for the parties reflect the fact Dion just keeps coming. He inches forward at what seems like a glacial clip but he does get his message out and that's why Harper needs an election now. Some of the tory lovers here will have lots of excuses now.
Thirdly, the NDP numbers in Quebec will not hold and probably will see them not get even one seat. Their numbers are simply enough to allow either the Tories or the Libs to sneak up the middle in several ridings where they will be splitting the Bloc vote.
I say to Harper bring it on. His lies,bribery and deceipt will get full play.
This poll shows why Harper's even more full of crap in the last week with his bluster and arrogance at an all time high. Testing the waters by dragging Trudeau into the picture is nothing short of desperation and the Libs can play that back by showing pictures of Harper with Mulroney in some of their ads.
[updated Fri Aug 29 06:30:04 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 06:30
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Gordo05
These numbers are truly amazing. One has to ask what Harper thinks he is doing - if these numbers hold, he will be committing political suicide. Look at the regional numbers, especially Ontario - Liberals 42%, CPC 29% and NDP 21. The CPC has dropped since the May polling, with much of that support going to the NDP. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are at 54%, compared with the CPC at 25% and the NDP at 19%. In Quebec the Bloc has gone into free-fall, but the Liberals and CPC are in a virtual tie. This, folks, is going to be one VERY interesting federal election.
[updated Fri Aug 29 08:01:59 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 08:01
30 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bernie
This is the first thing to grab my attention after returning from a 30 year delay for a vacatiuon. I will be happy to anticipate Canadian voters who will be tightening the noose that Harper will slip around his neck on Oct. 14, 2008.
[updated Fri Aug 29 08:31:58 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 08:31
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Non-aligned in Toronto
Extremely interesting numbers, Particularly in the battleground provinces of Quebec and Ontario. I'm quite impressed with the NDP numbers which in Quebec, have nearly tripled, mainly at the expense of the Bloc, and Ontario where they are up four points and into the range where they will pick up seats
[updated Fri Aug 29 10:13:25 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 10:13
102 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mike
Hi Nik
I think these polls are an excellent example of the power of what a good advertising campaign, unlimited funds and a total lack of ethics can accomplish.
Since being in power the Conservatives have refused to honor Canada’s international commitment to Kyoto, turned its back on aboriginals by refusing to fund the Kalona agreement, allowed the hollowing out of corporate Canada, tried to dismantle the wheat board, abandoned our world leading position on protection of child soldiers. They have had enough scandals in two and a half years to equal at least a century of Liberal governance….. the Cadman affaire, the in and out scheme, the Bernier affaire, the isotope fiasco, NAFTA gate, cutting programs popular with Canadians in the arts, women’s rights, they have brought us to the brink of a deficit. Yet they are poling at 33%.
If it were not for the magic of propaganda Stephen Harper would have to take refuge in Texas
[updated Fri Aug 29 20:08:43 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 20:08
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Peter3
I don't believe that Mr. Harper is looking to win a majority. He is calculating that the Liberals are in dissaray and will be unable to come together under Mr. Dion to mount an effective campaign. I expect that he envisions anoth minority parliament with a larger Conservative caucus, fewer Liberals, and an official opposition that will continue to permit him to govern as if he had a majority.
Seen this way, his risks are lower.
With a bit of luck, the thinking might go, the Liberal campaign will come apart mid-stream and the Conservatives might get their majority. The first gamble concerns the read that Mr. Dion cannot rescue his leadership. His doggedness and intellect make this less than certain, albeit likely. The second gamble concerns where the Liberal vote might go under circumstances that follow the Conservative prognostication. Leakage could flow to the NDP, Greens, Bloq and Conservatives. The relative shift could lead to anything from a majority government to a minority government with a couple of possibilities in the opposition role.
This one is going to be interesting, that much is certain.
[updated Fri Aug 29 20:32:21 -0400 2008]
29 Aug 20:32
49 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
waynorth
One has to wonder (or stand with dropped jaw) at the gymnastic-like maneuvers we’re seeing from Stephen Harper and the ReformConservatives. Almost two years ago they introduced and passed A LAW that set determined election dates in Canada, with the first one set for October 2009. They raved this was a needed changed to Canada’s election laws in order to “level the playing field” by removing when an election is called from the arsenal of the Prime Minister. They touted this new LAW as a “sure fire way” to prevent any future Prime Minister from EVER calling an election whenever he felt like it (as in when he believed it would do him and his party the most good). Well, it didn’t take Harper long to flush those lofty ideals down the toilet did it? Canadians are going to the polls because Steven Harper wants them to. The question is why is he so eager to break his own legislated law?
He says it’s because parliament is “dysfunctional”. What? Any MINORITY parliament is going to be difficult. In fact, it should be difficult. Parties should have to compromise and negotiate. That’s what Canadians voted for last time. And, as mentioned by countless others much of Harper’s original agenda HAS passed – some easily, some after debate delay and a few after committee changes. That’s not dysfunction, Steve, but how a parliamentary democracy works. So what’s the REAL reason Harper is hell-bent on breaking his own law? If his American-born neocon advisor, Tom Flanagan is to be believed (and nothing to date indicates he shouldn’t be) it’s for a most cynical, despotic reason possible – he simply wants to destroy Stephen Dion and the Liberal Party of Canada.
Let’s be clear. Canadians will be going to the polls shortly, not to give opinion on a pressing matter or to voice consent or objection to government policy, nor for better government, but because Stephen Harper wants to destroy his political opposition and sees the time is ripe. Canadians are now being asked to ante up millions of dollars for an election that cannot by any stretch of the imagination be seen as a positive exercise in democracy and good governance. Who is Mr. Harper kidding? This election isn’t being held for a better functioning parliament or Canada. It ‘s nothing more than a taxpayer-funded political hunting party orchestrated by a very power-hungry, devious megalomaniac. The question now is will Canadians knowingly join this Harper/Flanagan hunting party?
[updated Sat Aug 30 14:25:44 -0400 2008]
30 Aug 14:25
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RonaldODowd
Blair Wilson.
Breakthrough for the Greens or one-day wonder?
What will be the effect on the Greens polling numbers? What will be their seat count, if any? Is this an automatic entry for Elizabeth May into the debates despite the reservations of all parties except the Liberals?
[updated Sun Aug 31 08:15:44 -0400 2008]
31 Aug 08:15
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Here's another reason not to consider Harper in this election with his views so closely aligned with Bush economically. We are going into difficult and the Libs have always shone in tose times because of their ability to slot tax money into the right hands for economic reasons. I don't have comparable figures for Canada but I would bet they are similar. Populist governments are too dogma driven and have no idea how to be practical and strategic in tough times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/31/business/31view.html?em
Data for the whole period from 1948 to 2007, during which Republicans occupied the White House for 34 years and Democrats for 26, show average annual growth of real gross national product of 1.64 percent per capita under Republican presidents versus 2.78 percent under Democrats.
[updated Sun Aug 31 09:20:45 -0400 2008]
31 Aug 09:20
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larryl
Does any one besides me see this for what it really is? Pinnochio is again violating campaign spending rules by launching the CPC advertising campaign before the writ has been dropped . Advertising dollars spent before the campaign is officially on won't show up at Elections Canada for scrutiny. The longer he can bend the rules, the better his chances of fooling the voters he is honest and has any integrity at all.The G.G. is the only wild card in this game. She could and should put a stop to Yo Yo Harper playing fast and loose with the rules he actually had a part in writing. A coalition with only negotiated legislation among the parties with no motions of non-confidence could see the election being held on the date set by Harper's law. That law, like the man who passed it, has no real value since it can be ignored by the party in power with claims the government is disfunctional. How can anything he says be trusted??????
[updated Sun Aug 31 13:38:29 -0400 2008]
31 Aug 13:38
18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
Best Or Worst Line Heard So Far:
Jack Layton: I'll be applying for Stephen Harper's job! (Worst.)
[updated Sun Aug 31 16:26:53 -0400 2008]
31 Aug 16:26
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Here's a god management report on the Tories agriculture minister:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/montreal/story/2008/08/30/gagliano-farm.html
" Soudas said the Tories are in the process of tightening the guidelines that Crown corporations must take into account when loaning money.
He said that means all federal Crown corporations engaged in commercial lending will have to take into account "the personal integrity" of an individual during the review of that person's loan application."
Isn't that typical of this useless government. They blamed the Liberals for Adscam and promised accountibility and then lend money to one of the guys involved and a former cabinet minister at that.
What a bunch of clowns run our government.
I think they need to rephrase that wording above as no tory would ever get a farm loan in the future.
Good campaign material to go along with the tainted meat scandal that's now developing into a major government faux pas that has killed several canadians.
[updated Sun Aug 31 17:28:28 -0400 2008]
31 Aug 17:28
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rusty001
I'm surprized that the minority government has lasted this long. I thought we would have already gone to the polls by now. But,the Liberals have been unwilling or unable to show any real ability to lead with any sense of direction leave most Canadians wondering what ever happened to the "Big Red Machine"
Maybe a stong majority mandate for the tories is just what the doctor should order for bothe Canada and the brused and battered Liberal party
As for the idea that an election call would violate the fixed election date legislation passed by the government is bogus. Minority governments were exempt from the legislation both in the bill in itself and constitional convention
[updated Sun Aug 31 23:44:29 -0400 2008]
31 Aug 23:44
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Bernie
Nik; The Saturday Toronto Star states the latest Angus Reid Poll shows the Conservatives have an eight point lead over the Liberals, 36% to 28 %.
I am sure Angus Reid claims a moe of plus or minus 3% 19 times out of 20 also.
Since the polling was done roughly the same time as yours, what could be the explanation for such a difference?
I know they poll a different group of 1000 but all posters claim that their selected group is representative of the whole.
To others who claim media bias, notice that the Star placed this on their front page yet they did not post a poll that shows the Liberals ahead.
[updated Mon Sep 01 08:26:02 -0400 2008]
01 Sep 08:26
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
This article is one that should be of criticial interest of center leaning tories:
http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/487996
"In his book Harper's Team, Tom Flanagan makes it clear what the next election is all about for the Conservatives. It's about winning a majority, that's a given. But it's also about making sure Harper's brand of conservatism is entrenched across Canada.
Why? "Because if you control the government, you choose judges, appoint the senior civil service, fund or de-fund advocacy groups, and do many other things that gradually influence the climate of opinion," writes Flanagan, Harper's former campaign manager and professor of political science at the University of Calgary."
The article is pretty damning of the way Tories really do things.
[updated Mon Sep 01 09:24:21 -0400 2008]
01 Sep 09:24
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RonaldODowd
Globe and Mail/CTV Poll by Strategic Counsel:
CPC: 37
LPC: 29
NDP: 17
GPC: 9
As per usual, this continues the trend of the polls being all over the map.
[updated Mon Sep 01 23:06:53 -0400 2008]
01 Sep 23:06
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larryl
Ronald . I need your expert opinion. If 33% of the population lives in one province should the same percentage of polling be done in that province? Do the pollsters reveal where the respondents to their poll actually live? By having half of the figures used to achieve the stated results of your poll come from a very Conservative province the poll accuracy would be skewed. Who knows if the polling companies actually take a true reading of voters intentions? My suspicious nature makes me believe the results of the actual election could be manipulated to reflect poll results so the public would never suspect that the election could be rigged by the people who run the elections. We have secret ballots so the results can be fixed.
[updated Mon Sep 01 23:43:31 -0400 2008]
01 Sep 23:43
RonaldODowd
Larryl,
I'm afraid that I have no expertise in this matter -- only an uneducated guess. That is why I'm punting the ball to Nik -- if he has a minute. Thanks.
[updated Tue Sep 02 09:05:00 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 09:05
larryl
ronald. You may not have expertise on polls but your opinion is still more respected than the so-called or self-professed expert on every topic. 33% of posts from one source might lead one to assume we have an expert but I prefer to get a variety of comments .
[updated Tue Sep 02 09:27:58 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 09:27
Foxer
Well i do have expertise in the matter.
Polling is done based on the percent of the population. In the case of this poll it breaks down like this :
Region size margin of error
Canada 1000 3.1 %
Quebec 243 6.3%
Ontario - 383 5%
The West - 300 5.7%
So - as you can see, the number of people called reflects the percent of population for those areas.
So for example the fact that alberta is more pro-conservative but represents only a small part of the country is accounted for.
You can read the poll and it's methodology at
http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls.asp
first poll on the list. Download it and you'll see how they calculate it, and the historic data.
[updated Tue Sep 02 13:52:10 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 13:52
RonaldODowd
Thank you.
No reputable polling firm would skew their results. Their reputation is everything, as in many other professions (except politics!)...
The pollster will reveal the size and the nature of the statistical sample: it will tend to be smaller in Quebec than the national average and even less significant in the Atlantic provinces (for geographic reasons - smaller sampling potential). That is the best I can do.
Nik can correct me or explain further should he spot our conversation.
[updated Tue Sep 02 09:43:36 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 09:43
larryl
Ronald . It would be virtually impossible to prove if a polling firm did skew the results but if the client wanted a skewed poll showing what they wanted from the questions asked, why would they complain about the methods used . My point was that a national poll should be done in a way to make each province have the same effect on the results as the percentage of the population dictates. By saying one party leads nationally but making results from a smaller province carry the same weight as the most populace province would skew the results. I don't read polls and don't let them influence my choices . Your poll results posted here show the CPC ahead of the Liberals but you left out the Bloc numbers which would indicate they would not win a seat at 8% nationally. They are much higher in Quebec and will probably keep some of the seats they have. The poll shows that nationally they are behind the Green party . How can we trust this poll or any other for that matter?
[updated Tue Sep 02 10:56:47 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 10:56
RonaldODowd
Larryl,
To my knowledge, Nanos is the only pollster that uses a "rolling poll" -- if Nik does it again this cycle for CPAC, you will see the electorate shift day by day, the weekly trend established and the variations following mistakes by one of the campaigns.
It is not because I'm writing here but because it is a proven fact: Nanos has called correctly the last two (2) federal elections and, if memory serves, the last election at Queen's Park. That sounds pretty solid to me as a track record.
[updated Tue Sep 02 11:10:11 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 11:10
larryl
Ronald. I have no doubt pollsters can be accurate if you look at the poll they release just before the vote. Were they as accurate at the start of a campaign? Did their polls have any effect on how people vote or even if they turn out to vote? I am not a pollster but I could have told you John Tory blew it before election day. How does Nanos know how many people are actually going to turn out on election day? The polling results usually have a large percentage of undecided voters so how can they predict how many of those undecided will show up at the only poll that counts? Then again with information from Elections Canada the results could be manipulated to insure a victory for what ever party the power brokers want elected.
[updated Tue Sep 02 11:38:48 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 11:38
Foxer
That is a subject of MUCH debate.
There is very little doubt that people are affected by polling numbers. How much, and what the effect is in different circumstances is a little less clear. It seems to matter more in close races.
"accuracy" at the start of a campaign cannot be measured. There is no way to know how many people changed their minds. For example - Nanos said in the last fed election that on day one the Libs were at about 38 and the cpc was bout 29 i believe. Obviously it didn't turn out that way - but how many people changed their minds? it might well have been accurate FOR THAT DAY - but it's not always a good predictor of how the vote will end up.
Polls tend to be more accurate as the campaign moves on. For example - just before voting day Nanos last year released two polls within about a day of each other - and they had different results with the second one (closer to the actual election day) more accurate.
In a volatile voting environment, where it's a close race, people can change their minds within 24 hours of the vote. You watch the american race - the polls will be all over the map right up till the end i think, unless there's a break out and one guy starts swinging way ahead.
[updated Tue Sep 02 13:59:11 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 13:59
Peter3
Check out the regional breakdown for the latest Nanos poll at:
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-SU08-T315.pdf.
This is pretty typical. Properly done, a lot of effort goes into making sure that polls are appropriately structured to reflect the population at large by geographical location,sex, age, and income.
[updated Tue Sep 02 11:09:17 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 11:09
larryl
Peter. You might be correct about the poll reflecting all those factors but if it did not show want they want ,how do we know they would even release the results. The media is still allowed to bury the poll on page 10 or put it on the front page . The evening news can run it as the lead story or after the weather. Polls can and are used to influence voters.That should not be allowed during an election campaign .
[updated Tue Sep 02 11:23:02 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 11:23
Peter3
All valid concerns. Polls published by news media during election campaigns are required to make their methods available to anyone who asks. Most reputable polling companies make the essentials available without asking, by posting them online.
An apparent example of how a pollster can get the results a client is looking for is the recent poll by a Winnipeg company purporting to show that most Canadians were opposed to Henry Morgentaler receiving an Order of Canada. This is the same company that released the suspect Guelph by-election poll a little while ago.
Polls can be skewed by factors as basic as the order in which questions are asked. Reputable pollsters rotate the order for this reason.
News reports of polls have changed considerably over the last few years, to more properly reflect the technical issues involved in interpreting poll results. However, most people do not have the technical background to make sense of statements like "accurate within plus or minus 4.1% , 19 times out of 20" never mind evaluate whether the sample design of a poll is appropriate. Sadly, few reporters (and precious few editors) have the tools to understand the numbers they write about.
To my mind this is just one instance of a much larger problem, the essential awfulness of political reporting in general. Competent news reporting and genuinely insightful commentary about political life are so rare that they jump off the page when you find them. The problem is greatly magnified by the destruction of local news outlets. In many communities there is no print or local news coverage of local politics worthy of the name. I believe that the widespread treatment of politics as a branch of sports coverage, with elections covered as an arcane form of horse racing, is just one aspect of a major problem with political culture and political news reporting in this country.
[updated Tue Sep 02 12:01:04 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 12:01
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Here is an article on polling from the US Forbes Magazine a bastion of Conservative thought.
http://www.forbes.com/2008/09/01/election-early-polling-cx_0902oxford.html?partner=alerts
This is educational
[updated Tue Sep 02 07:21:12 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 07:21
larryl
TPQ. Very interesting article. If the new polls show Pinnochio leading ,why would anybody be surprised. The Corrupt Party of Canada has been on the campaign trail for a month . Handing out billions across the country has definitely worked if the poll results are any indication. Once the campaign is official the other parties will begin advertising and showing Harper for what he really is. Six weeks is a long time to keep his caucus from talking while they are away from Ottawa. I would be willing to bet one of the lose canons will go off during that time. The 3 day Liberal caucus meeting might force Dion to abandon his Green Shift plan. Dion could say that because his party is run democratically and the majority do not favor his plan, he will pledge to rework the timing of it after the election. Taking that plank out of Harper's attack on the Green Plan could shift the focus onto issues that should be more important such as health care and the economy. Privatization and deficit budgets are where we are headed unless we can rid ourselves of the Little dicktator.
[updated Tue Sep 02 09:55:30 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 09:55
MRM
larryl - Wait a minute, did't you emphatically state just a few posts ago that ALL parties were as equally corrupt as the others? Or have you changed your views on that?
[updated Tue Sep 02 13:48:34 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 13:48
larryl
MRM. No. The party in power is the only one corrupt at this time. How can you be corrupt without power/
[updated Tue Sep 02 15:06:00 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 15:06
Foxer
Oh it's not hard - the fact is controlling the bureaucracy is more important in many ways than controlling the gov't.
Look at the recent 'farm loan' to a former liberal who was intimately involved with adscam.
Plus we know not everyone was caught. How many are still in the liberal party? Paul Martin claimed that "Lots of party people said i should sweep this under the carpet but i disagreed..." - who were THOSE guys? He always refused to say.
If simply being out of power for a few years solved all the corruption problems, we'd have clean gov'ts in canada all the time. Unfortunately simply being out of power doesn't remove the corruption. It takes a lot more housecleaning than that.
The CPC are pretty corruption free. So are the NDP. I don't know about the greens.
[updated Tue Sep 02 15:45:05 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 15:45
Paul Martin's decision to form the Gomery commission was probably the worst political blunder in recent Canadian history. He tried to do what was decent and right, and the end result was star chamber stuff. Mr. Gomery's ego got the best of him and that, along with the RCMP's "timely" (and utterly false) leak about the Liberal Minister of Finance, trumpeted far and wide by the mainstream media, was enough for Mr. Harper to squeak up the middle of a decrepit electoral process. It is wild that we may be about to enter an election so collectively misguided.
The Tories attacked Mr. Dion's "leadership" from the beginning, viciously some might say. Leadership has mutated into "the best Prime Minister." Man oh man! We are talking two entirely different beasts but not many people get it.
Leadership is maybe 1/8th of management. The latter also includes planning/budgeting, hiring, policy-making and training, monitoring, improving, etc. Now ask yourself again, who would make the best Prime Minister?
I happen to have the answer.
Glad to be back in the thick of things! lol
[updated Tue Sep 02 22:44:31 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 22:44
Foxer
Paul martin was between a rock and a hard place. The judicial enquiry was a good enough idea, and i think it helped more than it hurt when he called it. The committee stuff was just crap, and i've come to the conclusion that no federal inquiry is actually worth bothering with, it just becomes partisan fighting at it's worst. Any attempt to sweep it under the rug would have resulted in worse problems in the long run.
BTW - the RCMP turned out to be right - there was a leak from the minister's office regarding income trusts. Not goodale of course - but he condemned himself by standing up and saying that he was sure the leak didn't come from his ministry. It did. Charges were laid.
Leadership encompases ALL the things you mentioned. A leader sets budget priorities, he creates the policy, etc etc. And more importantly he doesn't do it alone (no one can) but inspires his team to come up with good solutions
But to answer your question - it's pretty obvious what the answer is. Dion has failed to organize his party, his planning is obviously poor (he can't even get his own ministers to explain the green plan), budget.. well heck he still owes money for his own leadership campaign and the party is fiscally in difficulty, considering he's chosen a tax hike during a downturn i'd say policy making isn't great (it's not easy to make priorities after all :) ). So I'd have to say dion is a the bottom of the pile.
Layton - we'll have to see. He's always kind of gone 'soft' on real planning and such before because he never had any intention of forming gov't. We're hearing this time may be different, so we'll have to see what he puts forward. He's been a good organizer, but this will be the first time he's presented his party as anything more than professional critics. (if the rumours are true).
Harper - well he's done pretty damn good for a first term. He's reduced the overtaxation we were seeing year after year by quite a bit, his policy is pretty solid in most areas as far as canadians seem to think (most people supported tougher sentances for violent criminals, he found a good compromise on afghanistan thanks to a liberal lead committee he appointed, he's reduced seperatist thinking tremendously, etc). And obviously harper doesn't have any problem setting priorities. His party is tight, and he's done very well increasing donations.
I'd have to say harper 1, layton 2nd, and dion bringing up a fairly distant third.
Maybe if dion had more time to really get his legs under him, it would be different. He's stumbled quite a bit and flip flopped an aweful lot, and that's not uncommon for a new leader. Harper lost an election - but then had time to get it right and correct his mistakes. But - i have a feeling that the liberals aren't going to be anywhere near as 'forgiving' with dion if he loses. Which is a shame, we'll never know if he'd have evolved into a good leader or not.
[updated Tue Sep 02 23:41:45 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 23:41
MRM
Martin did not call the Gomery Enquiry because he wanted "to do what was decent and right" as rsahrp asserts. His goal was to finish off the Chretien faction of the party. He used the enquiry and $38M of taxpayers money to achieve his own internal party partisan objectives. Don't take just my word for it. Listen to some prominent Liberals who were victims of the process even though they had little to do with Adscam like Manley, Copps and others.
[updated Wed Sep 03 00:37:56 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 00:37
Foxer
I wouldn't for a second suggest his motives were entirely altruistic - but i think he really did want to get to the bottom of it for genuine reasons, not just for political ones.
Of course - i have no way of proving it one way or another. Just my feeling on it.
[updated Wed Sep 03 01:09:55 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 01:09
He did the honourable thing. And you have no proof otherwise. Shame on you!
I am pretty sick of those who refuse to rise above their biases.
[updated Wed Sep 03 22:03:15 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 22:03
MRM
rsharp – if you do not believe me how about Chretien himself? Excerpts from a left leaning US news outlet. Note the direct Quotes from Chretien. Entire text available upon request:
Canadian Leader Cleared in Scandal
Ex-Premier's Aides Cited for Kickbacks, Illegal Contributions
By Doug Struck
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, November 2, 2005; Page A17
TORONTO, Nov. 1 -- A government inquiry report on a money scandal at the center of Canadian politics for the past two years has cleared Prime Minister Paul Martin and blamed aides to his ruling-party predecessor, Jean Chretien, for a system of contract kickbacks and illegal political contributions.
"The report has shown there is a culture of greed in the Liberal Party," thundered Jack Layton, leader of the opposition New Democratic Party.
The report's release also led to the unusual spectacle of the current and former prime ministers holding successive news conferences. Martin said he was "obviously pleased" at having been absolved in his actions as Chretien's finance minister. Chretien, who was prime minister for a decade until December 2003, angrily rebutted the report and said he would go to federal court to clear his name.
At his spirited news conference, Chretien said the inquiry commission chairman, retired justice John Gomery, "chose to ignore or distort the clear evidence."
In a dramatic performance, Chretien hinted that Martin was equally responsible for the scandal. Chretien blamed those around him who "betrayed their country, their party and . . . betrayed me." He added, "I will not accept the blame for something that is not true."
[updated Wed Sep 03 22:53:46 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 22:53
This is nothing, No guilt of wrongdoing, Nothing.
[updated Wed Sep 03 23:09:08 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 23:09
MRM
rsharp- I guess you will see what you choose to see, even when the evidence stares you right in the face. The only Chretien Cabinet minister to survive the post Gomery purge in the new Martin minority govt was, you guessed it, Dion. All the rest were canned and Martin even refused to sign the riding papers for some to run in the election, choosing instead to put his own candiadte in place. Most notably Shela Copps was a victim of this tactic when Vople was parachuted in. Martin used Gomery as the excuse not to re-appoint those that did not support his leadership bid. Anyway you keep on believing whatever you want but it does not alter the facts.
[updated Thu Sep 04 00:11:30 -0400 2008]
04 Sep 00:11
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
that's my point as well rsharp. The fact this PM gets his marks by being an attack ad hero sure makes me want to vote for someone else. and, its another way he covers up his "hidden" agenda of decenralizing Canada and putting walls around the provinces. He is the biggest separatist we have in the Country and his economic agenda will kill us and make us basket cases lke Mulroney did back in the early 90's.
Dion is a strong decisive person and I hope he can overcome the phoney attack ad that point out false things about him and green shift. As tron performance will make the Cons ads look bad and could be a major benefit to him.
[updated Wed Sep 03 06:56:55 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 06:56
Foxer
Really tpq. So - when martin was all about attack ads, i assume you didn't vote for him?
And i love the hypocracy you show again, immediately launching into the "hidden agenda" speech which was such a large part of martin's personal attacks on Harper.
And BTW - since harper got in separatism is at an all time low both in quebec and the west. If he's the biggest separatist in the world - he's pretty crappy at it. The bloc has never been weaker and the west has been happy - until NEP 2 came along with dion's green tax.
Dion is about as strong and decisive as a slightly soggy waffle. He's been threatening to take us to an election since last october - screamed bloody blue murder about how there would be no more abstaining in the house last december then spent all year doing exactly that. Last year he thought carbon taxes were a terrible idea. He's let harper push him around at every turn. Even with this he's like "I can't meet with you till the 9th. Nope. Can't do it. There's no way. My schedule is just too busy. It's impossible. Well ok - i'll be there tomorrow."
But i do appreciate that you're taking the time to demonstrate that hypocracy is alive and well in the liberal party.You'd think as a volunteer and participant in your party you'd be trying to show a little more class - but i guess it's proof the arrogance inherent in the party hasn't been purged quite yet. You'll still say anything it takes to get elected, true or not.
[updated Wed Sep 03 11:17:17 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 11:17
MRM
Foxer - Well put. The Grits have along way to go before they have their act cleaned up. At least a couple of Harper majorities I should think?
[updated Wed Sep 03 10:10:59 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 10:10
Foxer
Honestly MRM, i'm beginning to think nothing short of being wiped out completely and forced to rebuild will do it.
Don't mistake me. We need to have a liberal party. Or something which is essentially the same if they rebrand themselves. Canada cannot have just one party to vote for, and even just two is not as healthy. So one way or another the libs have to come back in some form.
But THIS liberal organization... it really needs a rebuild. A new house built of old wood is an old house.
Dion - who knows. If he lost his arrogance and was humbled a little in the defeat he's about to suffer, he might have settled down and focused on actually building his party and looking at what he's done wrong. He might have emerged over time as a strong leader who could actually put together a solid plan for canada. Or not. We'll never know - the libs are going to toss him the moment he gets creamed. And he's sure no leader now.
[updated Wed Sep 03 11:23:02 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 11:23
MRM
Foxer - Once again I agree, they need to burn that house down and start over, just like the Tories did. I don't think Dion is the man to do it though. He has no respect within the party and will have less after getting trounced in Oct. My guess is that by about 16 Oct he will resign. If not he will be punted out at the next convention. The real battle for control will be between his two arch rivals, Rae and Iggy. My money is on Rae, but it will be a real horse race as both have a lot of support in the party.
[updated Wed Sep 03 15:28:06 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 15:28
Foxer
Well i don't know about him resigning that fast. If he does, I BELIEVE that iggy takes over the party till the convention. That presents a few issues :)
Iggy was winning when dion pulled his little back room manouver in the convention - but rae has had time to 'make friends' and inroads in the party.
To a degree it'll be a question of does the party want to move to the right or left? Iggy is a hell of a lot closer to the right wing. Rae is closer to the left.
Whether either man can rebuild the party will depend on how badly it's crushed and for how long. If we wind up where we are now - then i'm afraid little will change, other than the libs will continue a downward spiral due to financial starvation. IF the libs collapse and crash - then it might be different. With 4 years to think about it without the chance of an election - and with much of the party thrown out of parliament and moving on to other things - it may well be possible.
[updated Wed Sep 03 15:38:15 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 15:38
MRM
Foxer - Dion will not be able to hang on much longer if the defeat is decisive, which I believe it will be. If he stays with about the same number of seats plus or minus a few he can survive to the convention but not beyond. I agree the race between Rae and Iggy wil be close but I say Rae because Martin purged many of the right wing Liberals and the party is now dominated by the the left wingers who Rae has aligned himself with.
[updated Wed Sep 03 18:45:34 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 18:45
larryl
MRM. I just love it when two Conservatives agree with each other. THe posts are kept to a reasonable length and of course you don't really have to read them since they are just repeating comments already made.
[updated Wed Sep 03 19:20:18 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 19:20
MRM
larryl - thanks
[updated Wed Sep 03 21:38:43 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 21:38
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
They are the mutt and Jeff of the blog
[updated Wed Sep 03 22:22:18 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 22:22
larryl
TPQ. Mutt and Jeff were a couple of comic book characters who made us laugh . There is nothing funny about those two .
[updated Wed Sep 03 22:47:27 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 22:47
MRM
larryl - What an odd thought process you have. First, to say that the Leader of the Official Opposition has no power shows a deep lack of understanding of how our govt works. Second, by your logic then no matter who is in power they will be corrupt as soon as they get power so why bother supporting Dion? he will just be corrupt as soon as he is elected. Which of course will be when hell freezes over. But hey with global warming he has a chance.
[updated Tue Sep 02 15:51:13 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 15:51
larryl
MRM. The leader of the opposition has only one job. That is to oppose the party in power. With a majority in control he is unable to stop legislation and can't defeat a minority without the help of the other opposition parties .If he has any power ,I can't see what that would be. The bureaucracy is not bound to any political party and are just about guaranteed a job for life regardless of who is in power. Power corrupts and how long that takes varies depending on the individual in charge. It is the system that has corruption built into it and that does not change with every election. I guess you could say whoever is elected is corrupt as soon as they win. It would take a while for that corruption to be seen but the first patronage appointment would be evidence enough for me. The P.M. is given the power to make appointments and that is corruption in my opinion.
[updated Tue Sep 02 16:18:21 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 16:18
MRM
larryl – I know that you do not see it, that much is obvious so let me explain. Not sure why you are going on about a majority govt since we do not have one? That said the Official Leader of the Opposition has great power even under a Majority. For instance he/she can petition the GG to dissolve Parliament. He / she also has greater public funding and power to allocate committee positions, even to other parties. He/she also has greater authority over the House agenda regarding the order of and who speaks in the house than the other opposition leaders. These are just to name a few. In a minority scenario these powers are greatly amplified so your assertion that the Leader of the opposition has no power is wrong, just like your selection for the next PM and your views on corruption. That said since you think that Dion will become corrupt why do you love the guy so much?
[updated Tue Sep 02 18:30:27 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 18:30
larryl
MRM. Does saying that Dion is the best thing that has ever happened to Pinnochio and the CPC sound like I love the guy? Without Dion the Liberals would wipe the floor with YoYo Harper. Does that sound like I love the guy? He is by far the worst leader the Liberals have ever had but still is better than Steve.What do all those things the opposition leader can do really mean? Absolutely nothing against a party with a majority.Power means you can pass legislation not pick committee members.
[updated Tue Sep 02 19:26:42 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 19:26
MRM
larryl - The leader of the opposition holds a lot of power, especially in a minority Parliament. You said that Dion “can't defeat a minority without the help of the other opposition parties.” That is true but the reality in this parliament has been that the other opposition parties have not been able to defeat the govt because Dion would not let them (no power?).
Power is expressed in the type of authority one holds. How one uses that power is the expression of how effective that power is and believe me having the ability to allocate committee seats in the House is real power in Ottawa. That is why Dion has failed so miserably. He is indecisive and made some very bad policy and strategy judgments and as a result now has a divided party that is deeply in debt with no money coming in. All this on the eve of an election that he caused due to his misuse of power as Leader of the Opposition. He handcuffed parliament by hijacking those committees for political purposes and ordered the Senate to delay legislation. He continually crowed about the election being his alone to call, then he would complain about govt legislation and then either vote with the govt or he sat on his hands in the house and did nothing.
This is not a functional official opposition and without one we do not have a functional parliament. If, as you assert, the bar were the ability to pass legislation then at the moment the leader of the opposition has more than the govt. He controls the majority vote in the House and he controls the Senate. In Ottawa this is real power no matter how you spin it.
.
[updated Tue Sep 02 20:05:20 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 20:05
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
larryl trying to communicate or debate with those two redencks is simply a waste of time. I notice that even other con supporters hardly talk to them. I now have them both on my blacklist.
[updated Wed Sep 03 16:46:23 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 16:46
Foxer
ROFL - typical TPQ - when faced with an argument, hurl insults like crazy and stick your head in the sand :)
This is what's wrong with the liberal party today. Unable to listen and unable to face the truth.
[updated Wed Sep 03 17:18:01 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 17:18
MRM
TPQ - Thank you once again for not talking to me. I cannot tell you how deeply and sincerely grateful I am that you do not respond to my posts. You know I deal with a lot of witless morons at work and am thankful that I don't have to do so in my liesure time as well. I don't know what I did to deserve such a wonderfully thoughtful gesture but I won't look a gift horse in the mouth and just enjoy it while it lasts.
I am happy that the whole turn over a new leaf thing is really working for you. Nice move. How does that saying about a leopard and spots go again? Just a rhetorical question, no need to answer, after all, why ruin a good thing? Let's just bask in your silence shall we?
[updated Wed Sep 03 18:57:05 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 18:57
MRM, I've been away for a while but I notice you are as disrespectful of others as always. You need a coach.
[updated Wed Sep 03 22:08:32 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 22:08
MRM
rsharp - Obviously you have not changed either. You are quick to jump to the defence of your friends. If look up a few posts you will see who initiated the disrespectful remarks but don't let the facts get in your way. Perhaps you should consult your coach on how to be honest and fair in your criticisms? If you are unable or unwilling to do that perhaps just minding your own business would be in order?Just a thought.
[updated Wed Sep 03 22:20:33 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 22:20
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
rsharp Its not disrespect its an ignorance that comes from being a con lover.
[updated Wed Sep 03 22:23:35 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 22:23
I love a good debate, Facts count. Mr. Harper's record is dismal in every area that matters to Canadians. If only we can get the electorate to focus on jobs, the economy, stupid wars, etc. Mr. Harper is yesterday's "man." His ilk has been thrown out of office in Britain and Australia. Isn't that a clue?
[updated Wed Sep 03 22:44:47 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 22:44
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
dead on rsharp and I think that's why Harpeer's desperation move could have major backfire implications if the opposition can put their act together. He should go down easily.
[updated Wed Sep 03 23:01:53 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 23:01
MRM
rsharp - TPQ's post above makes my point well.
[updated Thu Sep 04 00:56:51 -0400 2008]
04 Sep 00:56
Foxer
Polling around summertime can always be a little iffy. For some reason - the libs have always polled higher in the summer and lower in the fall/winter, and the cpc is the reverse.
I'm still thinking 36 cpc 30 libs. Possibly even 35 31. If you look at the polls and margins of error, this seems to be a reasonable number.
It also depends on the 'undecided' count. Now HERE is something interseting -
This poll doesn't have an 'undecided' figure. They ask 'who will you vote for' and if people don't know, they ask 'who are you leaning towards if you're not sure'. That is how they get the numbers.
What that tells us is that there's a real possibility the undecided or unsure vote is starting to move towards harper.
And this comes back to what i was saying before - there is enough undecided and soft vote that whomever runs a better campaign (if anyone does) and whomever gains momentum early on and people start to see that person as the 'winner' (if anyone does), support will shift and it will be a more dramatic difference than we have now.
BTW - you can read the whole poll and methodology at
http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls.asp
top one is this poll. It's got a lot of historical information too.
People are shifting towards seeing harper as the best choice - as seeing canada as being on the right track, and they're seeing harper as a better leader for the economy, which is their number one concern. So they're leaning towards harper. If harper does the right thing - they will lean even harder that way and others will follow.
Harper needs to pick up about 5 points to really have a shot at a majority. He picked up more than that last time. We'll see if he's got it in him this time. Frankly - i think he'd walk away with a smile if he picks up even 20 seats all told. That'll be a strong minority - so strong that with the libs in financial and leadership disarray he'll have an 'effective' majority.
These numbers seem to agree with what i've been saying all along.
[updated Tue Sep 02 13:45:44 -0400 2008]
02 Sep 13:45
Foxer
Dion to make 'Green Shift' plan more marketable
The following story appeared on the CTV website today -
http://tinyurl.com/59wr9c
Dion to make 'Green Shift' plan more marketable
Updated Wed. Sep. 3 2008 12:16 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
Liberal Leader Stephane Dion will announce tweaks to his controversial "Green Shift" plan Wednesday in an attempt to sell Canadians on what the Conservatives call a dangerous carbon tax.
Continued ...
As you can see - dion has correctly identified that the Green tax is not winning over any voters, and is causing a great deal of concern to key sectors.
After 3 months of failing to explain the tax to people in a clear fashion, he's going to try to re-tool it and explain it AND the changes in just 6 weeks.
Here's the problem dion is going to face in a campaign. He is going to have to spend a huge amount of his time defending and explaining the tax to people, explain how they won't be hurt by it and yet somehow it's going to force people to use less carbon, explain how it will not hurt business, and now also explain how taking the pain away from some of the biggest sources of pollution will result in ANY benefits at all.
While he's doing this, Harper and Layton will be laying out new ideas and platforms that you can bet will be simple to understand and present a clear picture.
This is why i'm thinking dion is really going to do poorly this election. He's making a very amature mistake, one he just can't afford. The guy just doesn't know how to run a campaign - he's going to be spending all his time defending and explaining something, and trying to discredit whatever the CPC and NDP come up with, and will have zero time to present a clear plan for Canadians that people can believe in. You can't win an election if you're spending all your time digging yourself out of a hole.
[updated Wed Sep 03 14:12:15 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 14:12
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Dion is rejigging his Green Shift. Many will think he is a weak leader because he won't stand his ground. Others might see it as a smart move and show him as capable of changing to respect the wishes of the public. Being rigid and pushing through your agenda is a sign of a control freak who won't listen to the concerns of his caucus and the voters. If he stuck to his guns he would appear strong and decisive but it would cost him the election. Only a fool would refuse to at least try to show he can work for the benefit of the voters who are dissatisfied with his present plan. His political career is on the line and I think he is making the right move. Of course the little dictator will play this for all its worth.Do we really want someone who would never change to do what we want instead of what he wants?
[updated Wed Sep 03 15:14:52 -0400 2008]
03 Sep 15:14
45 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
How much effect will the deaths of Canadians in Afghanistan have on the polls? I believe a majority of Canadians think we should get out and many believe we should never have gone in the first place. I was shocked yesterday to hear Lou McKenzie say that Canadians are dying needlessly over there. His opinion is that N.A.T.O. won't put the effort needed to end the war. We should not politicize the deaths of our troops but the reality is that it will play a part in some people's decision. I would like to know how much.?
[updated Thu Sep 04 13:05:44 -0400 2008]
04 Sep 13:05
90 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Lots of tories not running again...I see that Monte Solberg along with David Emerson and a few more are not running for the Harper desperation election. In the meantime the Libs have secured a former police chief in Sask. who is a real law and order guy plus a former head of an agriculture association to run in Manitoba. There are a few more Lib surprises coming down the pike some in Quebec that will catch very positive headlines.
[updated Thu Sep 04 16:15:57 -0400 2008]
04 Sep 16:15
27 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Latest poll - CPC 38 - libs 28 - NDP 19
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/09/04/poll-results.html
"Canadians are most likely to vote for the Conservatives in a federal election, and believe Stephen Harper and Jack Layton would make better prime ministers than Stéphane Dion, according to a new poll sponsored by CBC News.
The survey, conducted by Environics between Friday and Tuesday, found that 38 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative party if an election were held immediately.
By comparison, 28 per cent would vote for the Liberal party, 19 for the NDP, eight for the Bloc Québécois and seven for the Green party.
Even when undecided voters were asked to reveal whom they were inclined to vote for, the Conservatives still kept the lead: Conservatives (33 per cent), Liberals (24), NDP (16), Bloc (7), Green (6).
If the federal election were held today, which of the following parties would you vote for?
Conservative party 38
Liberal party 28
New Democratic Party 19
Bloc Québécois 8
Green party 7
(Source: Environics survey)
This latest poll shows that support for the Conservatives has grown since the beginning of the summer."
WOW - i'm stunned at the NDP numbers, they're really climbing. One poll doesn't tell too much, but if those numbers hold the ndp could be in very good shape.
As i said earlier - if the libs begin to deflate, the votes will go to the ndp and the CPC - and could have surprising results. If they really start to slide, then the ndp could climb faster than anyone expected. Just like we saw with the Reform and Bloc parties during the PC's demise.
Obviously yet another good news poll for the CPC of course. There's now a ten point spread. I think the writing is on the wall for dion.
[updated Fri Sep 05 01:55:00 -0400 2008]
05 Sep 01:55
18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
New Quebec poll - Conservatives, Bloc in virtual tie in Quebec, poll finds
http://tinyurl.com/5kh965
"QUEBEC CITY — The Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois are deadlocked in a virtual tie in Quebec, with polling numbers suggesting that Stephen Harper is poised to make major inroads in the province as he prepares to call an election this weekend.
The poll conducted by Léger Marketing for The Globe and Mail and the Montreal daily Le Devoir finds that the majority of Quebeckers are satisfied with the Conservative government, but still perceive the Bloc as being best suited to defend Quebec's interests in Ottawa.
The survey also finds Quebec voters have serious doubts about Stéphane Dion's leadership credentials. According to the poll, voters have less confidence in the Liberal Leader than they do in Mr. Harper on issues such as the economy, public finances, inter-provincial relations and fighting the war in Afghanistan. However, Mr. Dion is viewed as a stronger leader on the environment and in promoting Canadian and Quebec culture.
According to the poll, conducted between Aug. 29 and Sept. 3, 30 per cent of Quebeckers would vote for the Conservatives, another 30 per cent would vote Bloc Québécois, 23 per cent for the Liberals, 11 per cent for the NDP and 5 per cent for the Green Party."
So it looks like the CROP poll was accurate - the libs are falling behind in quebec and the CPC stands to make some pretty massive gains.
Combined with the good news from other polls released in the last 2 days, it looks like the CPC is on the rise and will win the election with a larger number of seats. I suspect if it looks like they're going to get a majority, Quebec will get behind them even more and they'll wind up taking 20 plus seats more in that province alone.
[updated Fri Sep 05 02:18:08 -0400 2008]
05 Sep 02:18
60 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Just read an article on the CBC website about the global economy. It is worth a read. The timing of certain press releases and stories seem to be too strange to be coincidental. Gagliano getting approval for a loan.His lawsuit to have the Gomery decision thrown out because it said he was partly responsible for adscam . Zaccardelli back in the news making statements .The ghosts from the past showing up to remind us of Liberal corruption just in time for Pinnochio's election. What else is going to rise from the ashes to embarass Dion. One might think the MSM was working for the CPC, not the Liberals that most claim control the left leaning media. I can almost guarantee Lyin Brain won't be seen or heard from for the next five weeks. Has anyone heard anything about Schreiber lately and I am sure you won't. Steve won't be campaigning anywhere near Cadman's old ridng or Maxime's either. We heard about Liberals not seeking re-election but very little about Conservatives abandoning ship. Polls are paid for by the media but we only find out about them if the results prove what they were originally intended to show. If they do not turn out the way they were suppose to ,how do we know they were even done?It is really amazing how easily we can be fooled. We really deserve the government we get since we are so easily manipulated.
[updated Sat Sep 06 17:14:27 -0400 2008]
06 Sep 17:14
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MRM
I just finished watching Duffy. He has some advance news on a national Leger poll that will be released tomorrow. While he could not give numbers he said to expect that it will show the Tories in solid majority territory nationally and the Bloc and Liberals in trouble in Quebec and the Liberals in trouble in ON. He also said that it looks Dion's national campaign launch also planned for tomorrow in Montreal may also be in trouble. They are on the phones franticly trying to fill even the Quebec slate for the launch but still have "many" vacancies and are having trouble convincing candidates to run but without much success. Looks like the wheels are coming of that Liberal gas guzzling plane before it even takes off!
[updated Sun Sep 07 22:43:04 -0400 2008]
07 Sep 22:43
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Foxer
Tories seize lead in key ridings, poll shows
OTTAWA — Voters in pivotal regional battlegrounds across Canada have shifted their support toward the Harper Tories as federal leaders kick off their first full day of campaigning, according to a new poll.
The survey of 45 hotly contested constituencies in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia finds that the Conservative Party has made significant gains over its performance of 2006, while its main opponents in all three regions have lost ground. The survey for The Globe and Mail-CTV News shows the Tories in first place in the key swing constituencies, as polls across the country put them in sight of a majority.
“The bottom line is that the Conservatives are in significantly better shape in these battlegrounds in the three provinces than they were in the election,” said Peter Donolo, a partner with polling company the Strategic Counsel.
“People who reside in these ridings think the country is on the right track.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080907.welxnpolls08/BNStory/Front
Wooo - looks like a lot of the swing ridings are going to go to harper the way things are going.
He might yet manage to take that majority.
[updated Mon Sep 08 01:16:59 -0400 2008]
08 Sep 01:16
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larryl
nik. A strange thing happened today. At 11:53 I posted a message to M.R.M. about the CPC website and their list of candidates. It seems that M.R.M.'s claim that they had a full slate was not true. I pointed that out to him and suggested he call CPC H.Q. to update their site since it only listed 250 ridings. The Liberal site had all 308 ridings listed with T.B.A. in any riding that had no candidate. Imagine my surprise when at 16:30 I checked the CPC site again and voila! A list of all ridings with coming soon in ridings where no candidate has been chosen. My question to all is does seem like a very strange coincidence or does anyone think that MRM has enough influence with the party to get their site updated?
[updated Mon Sep 08 17:33:10 -0400 2008]
08 Sep 17:33
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RonaldODowd
Nothing more frustrating that watching third-rate political strategists at work in the CPC, NDP and BQ...they just don't get it. It's not only The At Issue Panel that wants Elizabeth May in the debates -- the Canadian people want the same thing. It's a no brainer for the person in the street.
You would think these so-called strategists would know that by threatening to walk out of debates or refusing to allow May's participation that they are playing into the hands of the Liberals. But no.
Just ask yourself how the voters will react to all this. The undecided will be pushed toward the Liberals thanks to these dunderheads. No wonder TPQ, larryl et al. are smiling...
[updated Tue Sep 09 06:55:48 -0400 2008]
09 Sep 06:55
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reality man
Where's Foxer's daily update on the polls. Funny he's not posting G+M's headline tonight. i wonder why?
"Tory momentum slows in swing ridings since election call"
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080909.welxnpoll10/BNStory/politics/home
Synopsis: The Reform Party's support is dropping and the other parties' support is increasing. The Tories are now behind the BQ in ALL the swing ridings that in Quebec that they led in yesterday.
Peaking the day before the election call is a great strategy.
[updated Wed Sep 10 02:10:35 -0400 2008]
10 Sep 02:10
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Foxer
By Popular Request - Latest poll: Tories at 38, libs 24, ndp 21.
[CALGARY - Sept. 10, 2008] - The Conservative Party remains on top in the early stages of Canada's federal electoral campaign, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) is closing in on the Liberals, a new Angus Reid Strategies poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,007 adults, 38 per cent of decided voters would support the Tories in the Oct. 14 federal election, up two points since late August and above the party's share of the vote in the 2006 electoral process (36.3%).
The Liberal Party is a distant second with 24 per cent (-4), well below its 2006 total (30.2%).
The NDP has markedly improved over the past two weeks, reaching 21 per cent (+3) for the first time this year and clearly surpassing its 2006 showing (17.5%).
The Bloc Québécois remains stable at nine per cent, while the Green Party drops back to seven per cent (-1).
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=news&newsid=303
At this point it would appear that the libs are largely in a 'free fall'. And most of their support is bleeding to the NDP.
Folks - we have a race for second place on our hands. The NDP may very well kick the libs out of gov't completely - for the first time the libs may not be either the ruling OR the opposition party.
This of course would be death to the libearls. They would have no voice, no power and no money.
Jack layton could pull off the biggest coup since the reform break out of the 90's.
[updated Wed Sep 10 13:43:10 -0400 2008]
10 Sep 13:43
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reality man
talking about plummeting
The Strategic Council poll of "battleground ridings" in Ontario, Quebec, and BC has been released again and things are looking decisively down again for the Great Leader.
Ontario - 3 days ago CPC 43% Liberals 28%
today CPC 40% Liberals 34%
Hmmm, a 15 point lead shrinks to 6 points in 3 days with the CPC polling lower every successive day with the Liberals polling higher every successive day. bad trend for the CPC
BC - 3 days ago CPC 43% NDP 18%
today CPC 36% NDP 30%
Hmmm, a 25 point lead shrinks to a 6 point lead in 3 days with CPC support polling lower every successive day and the NDP polling successively higher each day. Abysmal trend for the CPC.
Quebec 3 days ago CPC 33% BQ 30%
today CPC 31% BQ 31%
These numbers are fluctuating with the CPC lead having disappeared starting yesterday when they were trailing by 1 point.
[updated Wed Sep 10 23:01:14 -0400 2008]
10 Sep 23:01
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Bernie
I was elated yesterday to see Mr. Layton and Mr. Harper change their position with respect to allowing Ms. May take part in the political debates..
It's sad, tho, to see they didn't until they were forced by the portential loss of votes. So much for integrity? So much for having a instinctive democratic mindset?
Now I may even watch the debate, now that there is some serious about the issues and willing to discuss them and not their just the public image of themselves and their party.
What really got me elated was that of fact message it sent; that is, that the people have power. They can really have their voices heard. If only they would realize it and use it more often. Then we would have a far better country. Everytime something like this happens it shows them that they can achieve something useful if they have the will and take action and force the so-called leaders to take listen to them and take appropiate action. Hurrah for democracy!
Another thing that happened yesterday that help "make my day". I listened to Premier Williams's speech to the NL Board of Trade. It was excellent, superb.
It should be aired on radio and TV and on the front page of the national newspapers every day of the campaign. The mesage may finally sink into the concrete heads of those who still think tha Harper is not a evil, vindictive, mean-spirited man, a tool of the corporate who will wreak havoc on our dear country if he ever gets a majority.
Williams is a tough, hard-nosed conservative businessman. Not the weak-livered wooly headed opposition leaders we have now. Williams tells it like it is and he tells the truth
I wouldn't want him as PM (I don't agree with his political philosphy) but I surely would like him opposing those who are out to do damage to our country.
Another thing from yesterday. I hear the us Secretary of Defence(Gates) and the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Mullen) describe their activity in Afghanistan as failing and in its present form no chance of success. Mullen said they may have 162,000 soldiers in there in 2010.
Harper said our commitment will end in 2011. Isn't that great? He is willing to perhaps have another 97 soldiers lose their lives for an admittedly losing cause. What good are 2500 where 162,000 may be needed. The same people who rose up about the Ms. May affair, should certainly be even more outraged about those wasted lives just for the sake of appeasing George Bush.
I have real sorrow for those already killed and their families and those who will be killed; not the fake, hypocritical sorrow Harper exhibits each time a soldier is killed. If he seriously felt remorse he can stop it tomorrow, not wait till 2011.
[updated Thu Sep 11 13:07:05 -0400 2008]
11 Sep 13:07
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cmay
Thank you Nik! Finally a set of statistics that we can actually believe and wrap our minds around, after a barrage of substandard numbers from those other organizations.
Will be very interested to see how the events of Week 1 will play out in the polling numbers.
[updated Thu Sep 11 14:40:56 -0400 2008]
11 Sep 14:40
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