LP 35, CP 33, NDP 17, BQ 8, GP 7 - Harper leads as best PM (New Nanos Poll)

We're headed to the polls, right enough, despite Stephen Harper's lame explanations for mangling the spirit if not also the letter of his law to set a four-year election schedule. And it is surreal for him to tell the Tuk residents providing a human backdrop for the clips offered for broadcast in Wednesday's TV news that the distribution of seats in the Commons is not likely to change much. Let's put this nonsense aside until we've all fully vented on the dreadful summer so maany Canadians have endured. I don't want to engage the next federal election until I've exhausted my frustration with incessant low-pressure systems interspersed with ferocious monsoons.

[updated Fri Aug 29 02:37:08 EDT 2008]

Let me get this straight. Mr. Harper intends to cause an election in violation of his own law and even though he expects the same (minority government) result. Could he perhaps realize that things would only get worse if Parliament resumed, with further scrutiny of his government's many scandals and failed, neocon policies?

I've just watched Obama's acceptance speech and it is clear as day that change is indeed coming to America and to the world, and for the better. That Mr. Harper is yesterday's man will be increasingly evident.

Who will make the best Prime Minister? Depends how the question is framed. I think in terms of the (wo)man with the best judgement, the most trustworthy, the greatest respect for others and, most importantly, the most competent team.

The mainstream media will continue to harp on Mr. Harper's alleged "leadership" skills, however misplaced. .A lot of good it's done us: war not peace, environmental stonewalling, fewer resources and rights for the disadvantaged, the refusal to use government as a countervailing force in recessionary times, blind adherence to corporate agenda of all sorts, etc.

But the Liberals will be fighting the NDP, Green and Bloc parties for the progressive vote vs. a united right wing monolith, including an overwhelmingly pro-Harper mainstream media. The opposition parties appear incapable of even simple deals in support of what's most important - defeating the Conservatives. That is why Mr. Harper's prediction of another minority is likely true.

That will be a shame because it forestalls the hope and change we so desperately need, too

[updated Fri Aug 29 03:51:46 EDT 2008]

Ah---the fine art of Hara-Kiri-----No, I do not think either man is that stupid as to enter into a no win situation. I believe Harper, quite rightly, is calling the bluff to Dion's two-step fancy footwork. Both the Conservatives and the Liberals are playing like children in the House, political children that, I believe, we would all like to whip a little sense into, if possible. I could be wrong but I guess this is all political bluster and the election will be October 19, next year. One thing is certain no matter when the election date is called, either Harper or Dion will be replaced, after that election, as leader of their party and we may, thankfully, get a little closer to normalcy in the House.

To be facetious, Michelle Jean could name Harper as the leader of the Liberals and send Dion to the Senate----Ho Ho

[updated Fri Aug 29 04:03:41 EDT 2008]

How devastating must be the Conservative internal polls if these latest Nanos numbers are any indication. Only the prospect of worse support levels to come pushes Harper to call an election he readily admits he cannot win.

Finally, Canadians will have an oppourtunity to pass judgement on this Prime Minister.

[updated Fri Aug 29 04:40:49 EDT 2008]

First off the personal numbers for Dion continue to reflect the effects of attack ads the Tories roll out regularly and not his real competence. It is sad that we are getting such low ball and dirty politics from the Tories. Paybacks will be hell for them as the Liberal "team" will roll out some pretty damning stuff about Harper during the course of an election. They have Iggy and Petersen plus some other heavy hitters just itching to go after Steve the liar.
The Libs will spend their ad money wisely in an election campaign and that will include serious attacks on Harper's credibility,honesty,ethics and bully tactics like calling the election early.

Secondly, the popularity numbers for the parties reflect the fact Dion just keeps coming. He inches forward at what seems like a glacial clip but he does get his message out and that's why Harper needs an election now. Some of the tory lovers here will have lots of excuses now.

Thirdly, the NDP numbers in Quebec will not hold and probably will see them not get even one seat. Their numbers are simply enough to allow either the Tories or the Libs to sneak up the middle in several ridings where they will be splitting the Bloc vote.

I say to Harper bring it on. His lies,bribery and deceipt will get full play.

This poll shows why Harper's even more full of crap in the last week with his bluster and arrogance at an all time high. Testing the waters by dragging Trudeau into the picture is nothing short of desperation and the Libs can play that back by showing pictures of Harper with Mulroney in some of their ads.

[updated Fri Aug 29 06:30:04 EDT 2008]

These numbers are truly amazing. One has to ask what Harper thinks he is doing - if these numbers hold, he will be committing political suicide. Look at the regional numbers, especially Ontario - Liberals 42%, CPC 29% and NDP 21. The CPC has dropped since the May polling, with much of that support going to the NDP. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are at 54%, compared with the CPC at 25% and the NDP at 19%. In Quebec the Bloc has gone into free-fall, but the Liberals and CPC are in a virtual tie. This, folks, is going to be one VERY interesting federal election.

[updated Fri Aug 29 08:01:59 EDT 2008]

This is the first thing to grab my attention after returning from a 30 year delay for a vacatiuon. I will be happy to anticipate Canadian voters who will be tightening the noose that Harper will slip around his neck on Oct. 14, 2008.

[updated Fri Aug 29 08:31:58 EDT 2008]

Extremely interesting numbers, Particularly in the battleground provinces of Quebec and Ontario. I'm quite impressed with the NDP numbers which in Quebec, have nearly tripled, mainly at the expense of the Bloc, and Ontario where they are up four points and into the range where they will pick up seats

[updated Fri Aug 29 10:13:25 EDT 2008]

Hi Nik

I think these polls are an excellent example of the power of what a good advertising campaign, unlimited funds and a total lack of ethics can accomplish.

Since being in power the Conservatives have refused to honor Canada’s international commitment to Kyoto, turned its back on aboriginals by refusing to fund the Kalona agreement, allowed the hollowing out of corporate Canada, tried to dismantle the wheat board, abandoned our world leading position on protection of child soldiers. They have had enough scandals in two and a half years to equal at least a century of Liberal governance….. the Cadman affaire, the in and out scheme, the Bernier affaire, the isotope fiasco, NAFTA gate, cutting programs popular with Canadians in the arts, women’s rights, they have brought us to the brink of a deficit. Yet they are poling at 33%.

If it were not for the magic of propaganda Stephen Harper would have to take refuge in Texas

[updated Fri Aug 29 20:08:43 EDT 2008]

I don't believe that Mr. Harper is looking to win a majority. He is calculating that the Liberals are in dissaray and will be unable to come together under Mr. Dion to mount an effective campaign. I expect that he envisions anoth minority parliament with a larger Conservative caucus, fewer Liberals, and an official opposition that will continue to permit him to govern as if he had a majority.

Seen this way, his risks are lower.

With a bit of luck, the thinking might go, the Liberal campaign will come apart mid-stream and the Conservatives might get their majority. The first gamble concerns the read that Mr. Dion cannot rescue his leadership. His doggedness and intellect make this less than certain, albeit likely. The second gamble concerns where the Liberal vote might go under circumstances that follow the Conservative prognostication. Leakage could flow to the NDP, Greens, Bloq and Conservatives. The relative shift could lead to anything from a majority government to a minority government with a couple of possibilities in the opposition role.

This one is going to be interesting, that much is certain.

[updated Fri Aug 29 20:32:21 EDT 2008]

One has to wonder (or stand with dropped jaw) at the gymnastic-like maneuvers we’re seeing from Stephen Harper and the ReformConservatives. Almost two years ago they introduced and passed A LAW that set determined election dates in Canada, with the first one set for October 2009. They raved this was a needed changed to Canada’s election laws in order to “level the playing field” by removing when an election is called from the arsenal of the Prime Minister. They touted this new LAW as a “sure fire way” to prevent any future Prime Minister from EVER calling an election whenever he felt like it (as in when he believed it would do him and his party the most good). Well, it didn’t take Harper long to flush those lofty ideals down the toilet did it? Canadians are going to the polls because Steven Harper wants them to. The question is why is he so eager to break his own legislated law?

He says it’s because parliament is “dysfunctional”. What? Any MINORITY parliament is going to be difficult. In fact, it should be difficult. Parties should have to compromise and negotiate. That’s what Canadians voted for last time. And, as mentioned by countless others much of Harper’s original agenda HAS passed – some easily, some after debate delay and a few after committee changes. That’s not dysfunction, Steve, but how a parliamentary democracy works. So what’s the REAL reason Harper is hell-bent on breaking his own law? If his American-born neocon advisor, Tom Flanagan is to be believed (and nothing to date indicates he shouldn’t be) it’s for a most cynical, despotic reason possible – he simply wants to destroy Stephen Dion and the Liberal Party of Canada.

Let’s be clear. Canadians will be going to the polls shortly, not to give opinion on a pressing matter or to voice consent or objection to government policy, nor for better government, but because Stephen Harper wants to destroy his political opposition and sees the time is ripe. Canadians are now being asked to ante up millions of dollars for an election that cannot by any stretch of the imagination be seen as a positive exercise in democracy and good governance. Who is Mr. Harper kidding? This election isn’t being held for a better functioning parliament or Canada. It ‘s nothing more than a taxpayer-funded political hunting party orchestrated by a very power-hungry, devious megalomaniac. The question now is will Canadians knowingly join this Harper/Flanagan hunting party?

[updated Sat Aug 30 14:25:44 EDT 2008]

Blair Wilson.

Breakthrough for the Greens or one-day wonder?

What will be the effect on the Greens polling numbers? What will be their seat count, if any? Is this an automatic entry for Elizabeth May into the debates despite the reservations of all parties except the Liberals?

[updated Sun Aug 31 08:15:44 EDT 2008]

Here's another reason not to consider Harper in this election with his views so closely aligned with Bush economically. We are going into difficult and the Libs have always shone in tose times because of their ability to slot tax money into the right hands for economic reasons. I don't have comparable figures for Canada but I would bet they are similar. Populist governments are too dogma driven and have no idea how to be practical and strategic in tough times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/31/business/31view.html?em
Data for the whole period from 1948 to 2007, during which Republicans occupied the White House for 34 years and Democrats for 26, show average annual growth of real gross national product of 1.64 percent per capita under Republican presidents versus 2.78 percent under Democrats.

[updated Sun Aug 31 09:20:45 EDT 2008]

Does any one besides me see this for what it really is? Pinnochio is again violating campaign spending rules by launching the CPC advertising campaign before the writ has been dropped . Advertising dollars spent before the campaign is officially on won't show up at Elections Canada for scrutiny. The longer he can bend the rules, the better his chances of fooling the voters he is honest and has any integrity at all.The G.G. is the only wild card in this game. She could and should put a stop to Yo Yo Harper playing fast and loose with the rules he actually had a part in writing. A coalition with only negotiated legislation among the parties with no motions of non-confidence could see the election being held on the date set by Harper's law. That law, like the man who passed it, has no real value since it can be ignored by the party in power with claims the government is disfunctional. How can anything he says be trusted??????

[updated Sun Aug 31 13:38:29 EDT 2008]

Best Or Worst Line Heard So Far:

Jack Layton: I'll be applying for Stephen Harper's job! (Worst.)

[updated Sun Aug 31 16:26:53 EDT 2008]

Here's a god management report on the Tories agriculture minister:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/montreal/story/2008/08/30/gagliano-farm.html

" Soudas said the Tories are in the process of tightening the guidelines that Crown corporations must take into account when loaning money.

He said that means all federal Crown corporations engaged in commercial lending will have to take into account "the personal integrity" of an individual during the review of that person's loan application."

Isn't that typical of this useless government. They blamed the Liberals for Adscam and promised accountibility and then lend money to one of the guys involved and a former cabinet minister at that.
What a bunch of clowns run our government.
I think they need to rephrase that wording above as no tory would ever get a farm loan in the future.

Good campaign material to go along with the tainted meat scandal that's now developing into a major government faux pas that has killed several canadians.

[updated Sun Aug 31 17:28:28 EDT 2008]

I'm surprized that the minority government has lasted this long. I thought we would have already gone to the polls by now. But,the Liberals have been unwilling or unable to show any real ability to lead with any sense of direction leave most Canadians wondering what ever happened to the "Big Red Machine"

Maybe a stong majority mandate for the tories is just what the doctor should order for bothe Canada and the brused and battered Liberal party

As for the idea that an election call would violate the fixed election date legislation passed by the government is bogus. Minority governments were exempt from the legislation both in the bill in itself and constitional convention

[updated Sun Aug 31 23:44:29 EDT 2008]

Nik; The Saturday Toronto Star states the latest Angus Reid Poll shows the Conservatives have an eight point lead over the Liberals, 36% to 28 %.
I am sure Angus Reid claims a moe of plus or minus 3% 19 times out of 20 also.
Since the polling was done roughly the same time as yours, what could be the explanation for such a difference?
I know they poll a different group of 1000 but all posters claim that their selected group is representative of the whole.

To others who claim media bias, notice that the Star placed this on their front page yet they did not post a poll that shows the Liberals ahead.

[updated Mon Sep 01 08:26:02 EDT 2008]

This article is one that should be of criticial interest of center leaning tories:
http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/487996
"In his book Harper's Team, Tom Flanagan makes it clear what the next election is all about for the Conservatives. It's about winning a majority, that's a given. But it's also about making sure Harper's brand of conservatism is entrenched across Canada.

Why? "Because if you control the government, you choose judges, appoint the senior civil service, fund or de-fund advocacy groups, and do many other things that gradually influence the climate of opinion," writes Flanagan, Harper's former campaign manager and professor of political science at the University of Calgary."

The article is pretty damning of the way Tories really do things.

[updated Mon Sep 01 09:24:21 EDT 2008]

Globe and Mail/CTV Poll by Strategic Counsel:

CPC: 37

LPC: 29

NDP: 17

GPC: 9

As per usual, this continues the trend of the polls being all over the map.

[updated Mon Sep 01 23:06:53 EDT 2008]

Dion to make 'Green Shift' plan more marketable

The following story appeared on the CTV website today -

http://tinyurl.com/59wr9c

Dion to make 'Green Shift' plan more marketable

Updated Wed. Sep. 3 2008 12:16 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion will announce tweaks to his controversial "Green Shift" plan Wednesday in an attempt to sell Canadians on what the Conservatives call a dangerous carbon tax.

Continued ...

As you can see - dion has correctly identified that the Green tax is not winning over any voters, and is causing a great deal of concern to key sectors.

After 3 months of failing to explain the tax to people in a clear fashion, he's going to try to re-tool it and explain it AND the changes in just 6 weeks.

Here's the problem dion is going to face in a campaign. He is going to have to spend a huge amount of his time defending and explaining the tax to people, explain how they won't be hurt by it and yet somehow it's going to force people to use less carbon, explain how it will not hurt business, and now also explain how taking the pain away from some of the biggest sources of pollution will result in ANY benefits at all.

While he's doing this, Harper and Layton will be laying out new ideas and platforms that you can bet will be simple to understand and present a clear picture.

This is why i'm thinking dion is really going to do poorly this election. He's making a very amature mistake, one he just can't afford. The guy just doesn't know how to run a campaign - he's going to be spending all his time defending and explaining something, and trying to discredit whatever the CPC and NDP come up with, and will have zero time to present a clear plan for Canadians that people can believe in. You can't win an election if you're spending all your time digging yourself out of a hole.

[updated Wed Sep 03 14:12:15 EDT 2008]

Dion is rejigging his Green Shift. Many will think he is a weak leader because he won't stand his ground. Others might see it as a smart move and show him as capable of changing to respect the wishes of the public. Being rigid and pushing through your agenda is a sign of a control freak who won't listen to the concerns of his caucus and the voters. If he stuck to his guns he would appear strong and decisive but it would cost him the election. Only a fool would refuse to at least try to show he can work for the benefit of the voters who are dissatisfied with his present plan. His political career is on the line and I think he is making the right move. Of course the little dictator will play this for all its worth.Do we really want someone who would never change to do what we want instead of what he wants?

[updated Wed Sep 03 15:14:52 EDT 2008]

How much effect will the deaths of Canadians in Afghanistan have on the polls? I believe a majority of Canadians think we should get out and many believe we should never have gone in the first place. I was shocked yesterday to hear Lou McKenzie say that Canadians are dying needlessly over there. His opinion is that N.A.T.O. won't put the effort needed to end the war. We should not politicize the deaths of our troops but the reality is that it will play a part in some people's decision. I would like to know how much.?

[updated Thu Sep 04 13:05:44 EDT 2008]

Lots of tories not running again...I see that Monte Solberg along with David Emerson and a few more are not running for the Harper desperation election. In the meantime the Libs have secured a former police chief in Sask. who is a real law and order guy plus a former head of an agriculture association to run in Manitoba. There are a few more Lib surprises coming down the pike some in Quebec that will catch very positive headlines.

[updated Thu Sep 04 16:15:57 EDT 2008]

Latest poll - CPC 38 - libs 28 - NDP 19

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/09/04/poll-results.html

"Canadians are most likely to vote for the Conservatives in a federal election, and believe Stephen Harper and Jack Layton would make better prime ministers than Stéphane Dion, according to a new poll sponsored by CBC News.

The survey, conducted by Environics between Friday and Tuesday, found that 38 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative party if an election were held immediately.

By comparison, 28 per cent would vote for the Liberal party, 19 for the NDP, eight for the Bloc Québécois and seven for the Green party.

Even when undecided voters were asked to reveal whom they were inclined to vote for, the Conservatives still kept the lead: Conservatives (33 per cent), Liberals (24), NDP (16), Bloc (7), Green (6).

If the federal election were held today, which of the following parties would you vote for?

Conservative party 38

Liberal party 28

New Democratic Party 19

Bloc Québécois 8

Green party 7

(Source: Environics survey)

This latest poll shows that support for the Conservatives has grown since the beginning of the summer."

WOW - i'm stunned at the NDP numbers, they're really climbing. One poll doesn't tell too much, but if those numbers hold the ndp could be in very good shape.

As i said earlier - if the libs begin to deflate, the votes will go to the ndp and the CPC - and could have surprising results. If they really start to slide, then the ndp could climb faster than anyone expected. Just like we saw with the Reform and Bloc parties during the PC's demise.

Obviously yet another good news poll for the CPC of course. There's now a ten point spread. I think the writing is on the wall for dion.

[updated Fri Sep 05 01:55:00 EDT 2008]

New Quebec poll - Conservatives, Bloc in virtual tie in Quebec, poll finds

http://tinyurl.com/5kh965

"QUEBEC CITY — The Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois are deadlocked in a virtual tie in Quebec, with polling numbers suggesting that Stephen Harper is poised to make major inroads in the province as he prepares to call an election this weekend.

The poll conducted by Léger Marketing for The Globe and Mail and the Montreal daily Le Devoir finds that the majority of Quebeckers are satisfied with the Conservative government, but still perceive the Bloc as being best suited to defend Quebec's interests in Ottawa.

The survey also finds Quebec voters have serious doubts about Stéphane Dion's leadership credentials. According to the poll, voters have less confidence in the Liberal Leader than they do in Mr. Harper on issues such as the economy, public finances, inter-provincial relations and fighting the war in Afghanistan. However, Mr. Dion is viewed as a stronger leader on the environment and in promoting Canadian and Quebec culture.

According to the poll, conducted between Aug. 29 and Sept. 3, 30 per cent of Quebeckers would vote for the Conservatives, another 30 per cent would vote Bloc Québécois, 23 per cent for the Liberals, 11 per cent for the NDP and 5 per cent for the Green Party."

So it looks like the CROP poll was accurate - the libs are falling behind in quebec and the CPC stands to make some pretty massive gains.

Combined with the good news from other polls released in the last 2 days, it looks like the CPC is on the rise and will win the election with a larger number of seats. I suspect if it looks like they're going to get a majority, Quebec will get behind them even more and they'll wind up taking 20 plus seats more in that province alone.

[updated Fri Sep 05 02:18:08 EDT 2008]

Just read an article on the CBC website about the global economy. It is worth a read. The timing of certain press releases and stories seem to be too strange to be coincidental. Gagliano getting approval for a loan.His lawsuit to have the Gomery decision thrown out because it said he was partly responsible for adscam . Zaccardelli back in the news making statements .The ghosts from the past showing up to remind us of Liberal corruption just in time for Pinnochio's election. What else is going to rise from the ashes to embarass Dion. One might think the MSM was working for the CPC, not the Liberals that most claim control the left leaning media. I can almost guarantee Lyin Brain won't be seen or heard from for the next five weeks. Has anyone heard anything about Schreiber lately and I am sure you won't. Steve won't be campaigning anywhere near Cadman's old ridng or Maxime's either. We heard about Liberals not seeking re-election but very little about Conservatives abandoning ship. Polls are paid for by the media but we only find out about them if the results prove what they were originally intended to show. If they do not turn out the way they were suppose to ,how do we know they were even done?It is really amazing how easily we can be fooled. We really deserve the government we get since we are so easily manipulated.

[updated Sat Sep 06 17:14:27 EDT 2008]

I just finished watching Duffy. He has some advance news on a national Leger poll that will be released tomorrow. While he could not give numbers he said to expect that it will show the Tories in solid majority territory nationally and the Bloc and Liberals in trouble in Quebec and the Liberals in trouble in ON. He also said that it looks Dion's national campaign launch also planned for tomorrow in Montreal may also be in trouble. They are on the phones franticly trying to fill even the Quebec slate for the launch but still have "many" vacancies and are having trouble convincing candidates to run but without much success. Looks like the wheels are coming of that Liberal gas guzzling plane before it even takes off!

[updated Sun Sep 07 22:43:04 EDT 2008]

Tories seize lead in key ridings, poll shows

OTTAWA — Voters in pivotal regional battlegrounds across Canada have shifted their support toward the Harper Tories as federal leaders kick off their first full day of campaigning, according to a new poll.

The survey of 45 hotly contested constituencies in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia finds that the Conservative Party has made significant gains over its performance of 2006, while its main opponents in all three regions have lost ground. The survey for The Globe and Mail-CTV News shows the Tories in first place in the key swing constituencies, as polls across the country put them in sight of a majority.

“The bottom line is that the Conservatives are in significantly better shape in these battlegrounds in the three provinces than they were in the election,” said Peter Donolo, a partner with polling company the Strategic Counsel.

“People who reside in these ridings think the country is on the right track.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080907.welxnpolls08/BNStory/Front

Wooo - looks like a lot of the swing ridings are going to go to harper the way things are going.

He might yet manage to take that majority.

[updated Mon Sep 08 01:16:59 EDT 2008]