Given the chance, I think many Canadians would welcome the opportunity to give their elected representatives a political spanking.
Whether it’s the advertising and sponsorship scandal under the federal Liberals, the Elections Canada investigation into Conservative election expenses or a host of other political shenanigans, the overall impact of these goings on is to make the Canadians “change the channel” away from Canada’s national political scene.
And why not?
It cannot be surprising that voters are turned off by the personal tone of the attacks and counter-attacks. All this nastiness is laying the groundwork for what is likely to be a particularly acrimonious atmosphere in the House of Common this Fall. Although the cut and thrust of our political system is a given, when the line is crossed and our national political discourse becomes little more than a series of schoolyard-like barbs, we are all diminished.
The inflammatory happenings this week in the House of Commons Committee looking into Conservative elections expenses are a case in point. The focus is on raw political advantage.
When Canadians are asked about what’s important to them, they say that it’s healthcare, the economy, the environment and the war in Afghanistan. The Bernier resignation, Cadman affair or the Elections Canada investigation might be fodder for the media and the source of some dark humour around the water cooler. But according to the Nanos Research – Sun Media polling none of those issues rank as even remotely important to the day-to-day lives of Canadians.
While Canadians worry about their jobs, the economy and the environment many federal politicians are playing “gotcha politics”. Even Stephane Dion’s attempt to focus on the environment as an issue has largely been side-swiped.
Although the United States is not a perfect democracy (no democracy is perfect), it will be interesting to see if the nature of the political dialogue down south will have an influence on the tone in Canada.
What is emerging in the US is what could be viewed as the battle of the feel-good positive message of Barack Obama against the hard-nosed, hot button McCain Republican campaign?
Obama’s now famous “Yes we can” slogan is the mantra of a new approach trying to appeal to voters who have been turned off by high-octane political partisanship.
The big question remains, “What will be the impact, if any, of the American presidential race on the Canadian federal political scene?”.
In the current mindset of many Canadian political observers, a Barack Obama victory would bode well for the federal Liberals while a John McCain victory would be positive news for the federal Conservatives. In this world, the election calculus tips in the favour of one Canadian party based on the US results and the party with the advantage will want to trigger a Canadian election.
It will be interesting to watch how both the Republican and the Democrat mix their positive messages and the harder-hitting attacks.
The tone of US political dialogue and how it is used by the winner will likely have a greater impact on the Canadian political scene than the potential new US policy on terrorism or offshore drilling.
In that sense, the US presidential election maybe the antidote that Canadian politicians need to break the cycle of “gotcha politics” and to focus on the issues Canadians care about.
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
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Hi Nik, I've been saying for an eternity that McCain will win in a close elec... more
RonaldODowd (Ontario) 18 Aug 06:49
Nik as always your comments about the political situation in Canada, and what is... more
Jan from Whitby (Ontario) 18 Aug 08:01
Nik: As always, your post is once again thought-provoking. I think the federa... more
Gordo05 (Newfoundland and Labrador) 18 Aug 09:02
larryl - What "real democratic government" are you referring to? The theft of $1... more
MRM (Manitoba) 19 Aug 08:25
Not really. First off - it didn't cost 'us' anything, as in taxpayers. It actual... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 19 Aug 16:15
I said it was a broken promise. And no - they didn't lose billions. That's a b... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 19 Aug 16:50
Comments
RonaldODowd
Hi Nik,
I've been saying for an eternity that McCain will win in a close election. Sexism was subtly responsible for Hillary's demise while subtle racism will lead to Barack's underdoing, IMHO.
How will that translate in Canada? As a Conservative, I have to give Harper the edge should we go into an election -- the imcumbent government will go into a campaign that is Harper's to lose. If Harper does not make any major mistakes, we could squeak by with another minority mandate.
Dion's immense challenge is to convince the electorate that he is the agent of change. The dynamic of any election campaign is always one of change, to some extent. Dion has to roll the dice and hope that his burning themes catch on. If they do, he will form a minority government.
It will be close but the smart money is on Harper -- for the moment!
[updated Mon Aug 18 06:49:17 -0400 2008]
18 Aug 06:49
55 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Jan from Whitby
Nik as always your comments about the political situation in Canada, and what is happening in the USA are as a rule as close to the facts as one can get.There is no question that the outcome of the Presidential Election in the US will have aprofound effect on the results in Canada.
The way it is in Canada at the present is highly unsatisfactory,but most of the dissatisfaction and turmoil is driven by the Opposition, mainly the Liberals, for the simple fact that they cannot stomach the loss of their privileges in the last election. That is not to say that all is well with a Conservative Govt. By no means, too many turns and twists are made to compromise what should be a straight forward honest governing.
[updated Mon Aug 18 08:01:20 -0400 2008]
18 Aug 08:01
34 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Gordo05
Nik:
As always, your post is once again thought-provoking. I think the federal Conservatives have been playing some rather naughty games in the most recent black comedy that our paliament has become. Whether the latest antics of the "in-out" scheme will make an inprint on the minds of Canadian voters is questionable. Most Canadians are still trying to cope with the lousy summer we've had east of the Ontario-Manitoba border, while the rest of the people out west are still trying to make the best of an otherwise wonderful summer. It's time to wade through the masses at WalMart to get the kids ready to go back to school, or start thinking about closing up the cottage except for a few Indian summer weekends after Labour Day. No one cares about federal politics at this time of year. My friends and colleagues are talking about the price of gas and the rising cost of groceries. Whether they can afford a Toyota Prius and if a Smart car should really be called a Silly car because it can only carry two people and a bag of groceries. So, don't underestimate a plan that addresses the concerns of the environment and our over-dependence on burning fossil fuels. I think the Conservatives will do so at their peril. Shift can happen. A Conservative attempt to paint the Liberal Green Shift as a joke may play well to their Alberta friends - but many Canadians may well be in a mood to listen.
I love your use of the "spanking" analogy. Of course, no modern parent would spank a child today unless the parent was driven to the absolute end of their rope, so what does that say about our politicians? Yes, I was ticked off with all the hand-sitting that the Liberals engaged in during those non-event confidence votes, and I have been extremely miffed with the Conservatives ever since they started breaking every rule in Communications 101. Harper and his cornies seem to think we are all morons, and the media can't be trusted. Both parties need a good kick in the arse. So maybe a fall federal election will do it. I sincerely hope so.
[updated Mon Aug 18 09:02:06 -0400 2008]
18 Aug 09:02
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
All I can say Nik is Bring it on.
[updated Mon Aug 18 09:43:11 -0400 2008]
18 Aug 09:43
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Nik. After 4 weeks on the last topic , this is long overdo. Welcome back to all who have been missed . In order to refocus you would have had to be focused in the first place. The CPC has done everything to keep us from focusing on what they were up to. How many of us have been distracted by Bernier, Cadman and Elections Canada to actually look at the government's economic policy. Corporate tax cuts are at a level where we will soon be paying them to do business in this country if we are not already doing it. Defense spending of billions of dollars is not being accounted for. The largest budget in our history by Diamond Jim should have been a topic of discussion but no one has asked why he could not cut spending rather than reducing revenue. How long before we are back to deficit budgets and the debt starts to grow again. Obfuscation is an art used to keep us from seeing what has been going on and Harper is a modern day Picaso.The environment was hardly a blip on the screen for the Conservatives but we did not criticise that until Dion made it an issue. Health care should be our number one concern but we have ignored that issue with all the nonsense happening in Ottawa to distract us.The major concerns for the voters is not something Harper wants us to even discuss.Attack ads against Dion have made leadership the big issue in the media but our opinions about the real issues will have more effect on how we vote. I don't think the situation in the U.S. should enter our thoughts. We will deal with the new president after their election. Bringing it up here is just another attempt to distract us from what we should be concerned with. We should pay more attention to the real issues and less to the shenanigans taking place in Ottawa. I find it strange that Adscam that occured 10 to 15 years ago is still brought up . The fact that Chuck Guite was a Conservative appointed by Lyin Brain is never brought up by the right. No one wants to talk about the in and out scheme. Let's focus on what is important to us
and do something when the election is called. All candidates meetings are a great place to actually hear the public focus on our concerns.
[updated Mon Aug 18 12:06:02 -0400 2008]
18 Aug 12:06
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
The minority government syndrome, of the last number of years, is like a bad virus that has infected all aspects of government resulting in retarded political development. When Canadian elections are dependent to a small degree on the outcome of American elections, then, are we shedding a little of our sovereignty too ???? I would suggest the two main Canadian political parties are a little like a baby with varicose veins where the patient has developed, prematurely, the affirmities of age-----bad sight, increasing deafness and a deteriorating temper for what is broadly of interest for the Canadian electorate. To be facetious, if the Liberals were led by Harper, then a majority government would be assured ! ! !
[updated Mon Aug 18 12:29:00 -0400 2008]
18 Aug 12:29
78 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
While everyone is focused on the minutae of dirty politics Stephane Dion goes about his business in a steady focused approach. He knows that to get attention he needs to stay on message and let his MP's do the dirty work in the house and committees.
People are starting to take notice, His numbers are growing while Harper's are shrinking and with the economy in poor shape and getting worse the Liberals have a good hand to play.
Dion has his "news catcher" in Green shift and has been getting attention which is good.
[updated Mon Aug 18 18:26:57 -0400 2008]
18 Aug 18:26
43 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
True North
I viewed almost every hour of the hearings of the
Standing committee on Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics and came away completely disgusted with the attitudes and behaviours of the Conservative members of that committee. I found them to be rude, disagreeable, defensive, suspicious, argumentative, obstructionist, unable to give straight answers, always in a defensive crouch, and meanspirited I think that these characteristics,unfortunately, are present in most Conservatives that I have witnessed in the House of Commons and I think of Peter Van Loan, Jason Kenney, Pierre Poilievre as well as Stephen Harper. This paranoia must be part of their DNA!
Last year the Conservatives published a 200 page handbook - a handbook which accidentally fell into the hands of the media and was much publicized - and distributed to all of its caucus members. This handbook gave instructions on how to disrupt parliamentary committees and create chaos. It instructed committee chairmen to select biased witnesses and instruct them how to perform in a committee. It gave the chairmen pointers on how to obstruct parliamentary business and to storm out of meetings if necessary. This handbook reflected a deliberate plan to create a chaotic and dysfunctional parliament and committee hearings. Now I find it outrageously ironic that Prime Minister Harper is now saying in a speech in Newfoundland Labrador last week that parliament has become so dysfunctional that he might have to go to the Governor-General and request the dissolution of parliament and force an election. And he purports to be a responsible leader of great integrity. Who does he think he's kidding?
True North
[updated Mon Aug 18 20:44:13 -0400 2008]
18 Aug 20:44
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
The effect of the American election - let me offer a contrasting point of view.
I think the effect of the upcoming American election will depend entirely on when our election occurs.
If it precedes the american election (ie happens in sep/oct) then i think american politics won't make any difference.
If they occur at the same time (november) and the 'race' overlaps, then i think dion will try to suggest obama and himself are similar. He will claim he brings change like obama does and paint a vision of a 'liberal/democrat' continent. But i think this will not work nearly as well as he thinks. First off - there's very little 'new' or 'inspiring' about the liberals, and secondly obama's platform looks more like harper's than dion's.
If they occur AFTER the american election - that could be where things get interesting.
The liberals have used the idea that harper is a bush puppet extensively to try to discredit harper. If obama wins, and i suspect harper and him will agree on much, that completely destroys the whole 'don't vote harper, he'll do what bush tells him' argument. It will actually weaken dion's position.
if mccain wins - then that strengthens people's fear of another 'bush-like' gov't. That will weaken harper's position.
Amusingly enough - I believe strongly that the parties in canada need to hope for the OTHER side's 'sister party' to win in the states. I believe that would actually result in the strongest impact on canadian elections.
[updated Tue Aug 19 15:41:00 -0400 2008]
19 Aug 15:41
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Gordo05
I think you're right on.
See James Travers column in today's Toronto Star: http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/482559
[updated Thu Aug 21 10:36:16 -0400 2008]
21 Aug 10:36
Foxer
Hehehe - James sure wears his heart on his sleeve :)
Interesting article. He's just a hair bias in his opinion pieces of course (which is what opinion pieces are for) but he does raise some interesting points.
The economic thing is interesting - it's interesting because he SHOULD be right based on historical trends. But, not only is it not working out that way at the moment here in canada (with more people showing faith in the CPC than the libs for the economy) but it's also not really working that way in the states either. The latest reuters polling says americans are much more trusting of mccain for the economy than obama.
Which COMPLETELY baffles me. I mean, Harper has a few solid points to back up his situation. Canada's downturn was due, and i think everyone knows that (sooner or later the economy always has to take a breath) and clearly the American situation is a large part of why it's happening, and nobody can blame harper for that. Harper's only been in power a couple years, and with a minority. And the economic slowdown here is far far less than the states, and will not grow anywhere nearly that bad. And while travers attempts to suggest there's a deficit, most people know that isn't true and will actually appreciate that we're going to run a surplus of a couple billion, not 15 billion - that money is back in the hands of the people thanks to tax cuts. And of course his opponent proposed a new 15 billion dollar tax.
Mccain has NONE of that going for him. His party has been in power for 9 years or so. They KNEW about the housing bubble for a long time but did nothing, now people are losing their homes left and right. Bush racked up absolutely stunning deficits. A lot of people blame Bush in part for the disaster at new orelans, because he didnt' repair the dike when he was warned about it. His war in iraq has been an economic drain of huge proportions.
So while it makes SOME sort of sense that people see harper as a better economic leader, it is simply flooring me they see mccain as a better economic leader in the states.
I notice mccain is up 5 points right now - but i'm still going to put my money on Obama to win unless the democratic convention completely falls apart and the party splits. Obama will run the better campaign i think.
Interestingly enough, while we've been discussing how personalities won't be a factor in our race (because neither candidate has one) and it'll all be about issues, i think its definitely going to be mostly about personalities down there. Which isn't to say issues won't play a role, but i think it's going to be a lot more of a personality contest as well as a policy contest down that way.
In the end i think travers is sort of right in a way - but I think it's mostly that harper thinks he can beat the 'green shift'. That right there gives him dominance on the economic issue, which is a prime issue right now.
[updated Thu Aug 21 11:22:31 -0400 2008]
21 Aug 11:22
Gordo05
Very interesting commentary. You should consider writing for a career (or maybe you already do that and posting here is just a diversion!). Anyway, I am totally convinced that Obama will wipe McCain off the map. McCain's infidelity will not sit well with the American Christian right, which dominates the Republican Party, especially in the US South. But the real tipping point for Obama will be his ability to bring out hundreds of thousands of voters across the US who had become disenfranchised over the past decade and never bothered to vote. The highest voter turnout the Americans have had in a recent election year which coincides with a Presidential election was 55.3% (in 2004) - the highest before that was in 1960 when 63.1% voted (that's when Kennedy defeated Nixon). Every other election between 1960 and 2004 saw just barely over 50% of the eligible voters bother to cast a ballot. I predict that this year there will be a massive voter turn-out in the US election because people will be attracted to Obama's campaign of hope. His book (The Audacity of Hope) is a very good read, by the way.
Here in Canada, I think you're right when you suggest that the next federal election will be fought on issues, rather than personalities. And hey, was your comment that neither of them have a personality an intentional back-handed compliment? Good one. I laughed out loud.
With so many issues on the minds of Canadians right now - the economy, the environment are two crucial ones - it'll be interesting to see what unfolds here. By the way, I'm predicting a federal election on October 27. The Liberals will win the first three by-elections (Guelph, Westmount-Ville Marie & Saint Lambert) and Harper will cancel the fourth (Don Valley West) and roll it in the general election campaign. He'll drop the writ on September 18.
[updated Thu Aug 21 11:59:45 -0400 2008]
21 Aug 11:59
Foxer
I have done a fair bit of writing actually, but for tv shows :) No political commentary. I thought about writing political articles but then my hot water bills go way up (i find the need to take more showers for some reason :) )
Well I think you nailed it with Obama. I hadn't realized voter turn out was THAT low in the states, but yes - i'm thinking that this is a man who can inspire people to get out and vote, whereas mccain is not. And polling numbers don't count if more of one guy's people get out and vote than the other guy. I don't know about 'massive' - but if obama gets 10 percent more of his people out than mccain, he'll take it. That's entirely within his power, and possibly more. One might argue that he is or is not going to be a good president, but nobody can argue the man isn't inspiring.
I'm afraid we're probably looking at relatively low voter turn out again here in Canada. Harper has inspired people a little bit with policy (like the gst) but he's not that inspiring himself as a person.
And dion... well lets face it - it's painful to listen to him speak. Even in french. To quote Charles Adler "Listening to him talk, he reminds me of the kind of Professors I had in University that could really really inspire the kids to do drugs in school. "
A federal election for the 27th eh? It will be interesting to see if you're right. The by-elections will tell a story, but it may not be as clear a story as either party would like. Dion should win all three ridings - but it will also be a question of how much he wins by. He should completely dominate in two at the very least. If he wins by a small margin, that will be almost as concerning to him as a defeat. I'll offer vancouver quadra as an example - previous guy won by 5 thousand votes or something - this time dion won by 151 votes. Even tho he 'won', most people looked at it as a serious loss for him.
Harper as you know can't drop the writ - he either needs the opposition to vote him down OR he has to convince the GG to agree that the parliament is dysfunctional. The GG may be a little tougher sell than he's letting on. She may well turn around and tell the parties to try again to make it work, and suggest that dion should show up to vote, and say lets give it a little more time before we say it cannot work.
There's also some question about the opposition parties. In a confidence vote, it is possible the ndp or the bloc will not vote to bring the party down. For all dion's statements that it's 'his decision', it really isn't. I could see layton for example saying "Hey - you had a dozen chances to bring it down on issues, now you're just calling a 'confidence vote' because it suits you? Forget it - if you want to vote them down do it on an issue, there's confidence issues coming up." That might well sell with the public.
You could be right (or very close) tho. I have a feeling that harper is going to pressure dion to 'do the deed' rather than try to do it himself, and who knows how much dancing they'll do before someone actually calls it (or doesn't.) Earlier is better for harper in some ways (mind you tho, it IS hunting season.) If he can't make it happen fast - his best bet is to push for a february/march election with the writ dropped jan/feb. That is traditionally the time of the year when the CPC enjoys it's highest level of support.
We'll see :) Always exciting to watch!
[updated Thu Aug 21 13:26:36 -0400 2008]
21 Aug 13:26
Gordo05
Re your comment: "If he wins by a small margin, that will be almost as concerning to him as a defeat." See Paul Wells column in Mcleans - Dion and the oracle of Guelphi http://www.macleans.ca/canada/opinions/article.jsp?content=20080820_48533_48533
Wells suggests that even if the Liberals win all four byelections Dion wouldn't be able to stay on as leader because he would have peaked too early. Obviously, there's a little tongue in cheek here.
As for Dion's ability - or inability - to speak the Queen's English - people said the same thing about Chretien - some even suggested he couldn't speak either language. But Dion and Chretien are two very different animals all together. I was interested in Chretien's recent criticism of Harper not going to China for the Olympics. There's still a lot of growl in the old guy.
If the government falls Harper will still have to go to the GG to ask her to dissolve parliament. Although she has demonstrated she may have the gonads (sorry for the male testostorine-inspired analogy) I don't think Michaëlle Jean will stall things.
As you have pointed out, when a government has lost the confidence of the House of Commons, the Prime Minister is obliged to either resign, or request the Governor General to dissolve Parliament, thereby precipitating a general election. The Governor General may theoretically refuse to dissolve Parliament, thereby forcing the Prime Minister to resign. The last instance of a Governor General refusing to grant a dissolution was in 1926 (the infamous King-Byng Affair). Except when compelled to request a dissolution by an adverse vote on a confidence issue, the Prime Minister is allowed to choose the timing of dissolutions, and consequently the timing of general elections. Thus my reference to dropping the writ - Harper will still maintain control of the election call - whichever way it falls.
As for the election call coming in early 2009 - I don't see it. Winter elections are horrible! Parties avoid them at their peril. One year we got 23 feet of snow - imagine finding an election sign in that mess. (Oh, sorry for the "old" measurement - it's just that 23 feet sounds much more impressive than 701.04 centimeters.) And remember the infamous 2006 election when Paul Martin decided it wouldn't be politically expedient to campaign during the Christmas season. Harper did and the Liberals were lost when the campaign picked up again in early January.
It's been interesting sharing these random thoughts... Thanks.
[updated Thu Aug 21 14:07:38 -0400 2008]
21 Aug 14:07
Foxer
Heh! That's a cute article :)
And of course it's echoing a sentiment that was expressed early on - these byelections are tough on the libs, because 3 out of 4 scenarios make them look horrible, and the 4th one just makes them look neutral. On the flip side - the bloc, ndp and cpc all stand to gain or be neutral.
Tough break, but that's the way it is.
Dion's english ability isn't his biggest problem. His french speeches aren't much better. However - to address the issue there is a difference between chretien and dion - chretien spoke with a very heavy accent, but the actual words he chose were pretty good. Playful, charming, often hilarious and witty. Dion tends to use words and terms which aren't the best choice. For example - when speaking about Alberta he said "we don't want to KILL the cash cow...". I actually cringed... don't call alberta a cash cow you ninny, they'll have you hung from the city gates!! He does better in prepared speeches obviously, but he's just got a bad habit of picking bad phrases. Chretien was charming and witty - and his accent was 'playful' to a lot of people. Dion isn't going to have that kind of effect.
But seriously i don't think it's the language that's the big issue. He's been too long a lecturer and not long enough a motivator or public speaker. It's two very different kinds of speaking and he's struggling to make the transition.
I don't think michelle will stall anything if there is a clear vote of confidence - where i think she may hesitate is if harper goes to her WITHOUT such a vote and asks her to dissolve parliament on her own authority due to the fact its 'dysfunctional'. That steps on some very very sensitive traditional, historical and legal issues. It could move her into being perceived as 'partisan'. I would not be surprised at all to see her tell him in essence "i'm going to tell all of you boys to place nice one more time, and if you don't no nap time today". In fact - that would pretty much be the right thing for her to do.
A brief reminder about the dropping of the writ - harper's law removed his ability to do that. In effect he already HAS dropped the writ - it is set for october 2009 and he cannot change that without an act of parliament. Which the opposition will never give him. (ahaha! i just thought of something - maybe he could put it before parliament as a confidence motion! :) This amendment to the law will allow us to call an election - and if you vote it down that's a confidence matter so we'll call an election! That'd be hilarious, like the famous monty python 'argument' sketch. "This is an argument. No it isn't. Yes it is. no it isnt!" )
Heh - at any rate, his only options now as things stand is a confidence vote or convincing the GG to dissolve parliament on her own accord and her own authority. Harper cannot drop the writ.
[updated Thu Aug 21 15:59:41 -0400 2008]
21 Aug 15:59
Foxer
About winter elections:
Winter elections are indeed avoided at all costs. But in this particular case, I would propose that the disadvantages favour the CPC.
More people are at home in front of the tv, more will watch the debates, more will read the papers. Harper is a stronger campaigner than dion, that favors him. The libs are MUCH more organized on the ground in the ridings. I can tell you with certainty that the Alliance/PC merger went HORRIBLY for keeping lists of supporters, and their organization has been very poor. THey're just getting back on track now, and they're still not as strong as the libs. Snow and miserable conditions reduces the impact of those volunteers, which hurts the libs more than the cpc.
And there's nothing like 20 ft of snow and the associated heating bills to really dampen people's lust for a 'carbon' tax to fight 'global warming'. Nobody's excited about rushing out to buy a 'smart car' with 3 inches of ice on the roads. And the american election will be over. As i postulated earlier - i think obama will win, and i think that gives a marginal boost to the CPC. Especially if harper has had a photo op and those two are playing nice. Maybe sneak in an announcement about having a meeting to discuss a north american stratagy for climate change, that would appeal to obama's voters and to Canadian voters, even if it doesn't happen before the election.
And as i mentioned - jan - may is the time of year the CPC always polls the highest. Harper's numbers often brush 40 during that time. Summer is when he polls the lowest. October isn't bad, but he polls higher in winter. People are cold, they're low on cash from xmas, it's tax time, there's no fighting in Afghanistan, etc etc. The budget is due out. Economy really plays a role and that's harper's strong suit.
It's also the lowest time of the year for liberal donations. :) Low blow i realize - but politics is politics. The CPC war chest is heavy - the liberals will have to borrow. The more they have to borrow, the better the CPC likes it.
For these reasons i would argue that in THIS particular instance - a feb-march-early april election is better for Harper than would normally be the case.
But dion's gotta know most of that stuff too. And the bloc will be thinking about it. So - probably not going to happen that way. I think if it doesn't happen by november, it's not going to happen till the following october when it's currently scheduled.
That's my thinking anyway - of course it's all just speculation.
And yeah, i've enjoyed the conversation too :)
[updated Thu Aug 21 16:00:38 -0400 2008]
21 Aug 16:00
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I don't see the tory lovers here commenting on the fact Harper is trying the cover up of all cover ups by threatening to break his own law on election dates just to avoid the ethics committee hearings.
There is an amazing lack of ethics displayed by these guys but I wonder if Joe Q Public is going to pick up on that issue which is the reason Harpercrite floated that balloon.
[updated Thu Aug 21 10:16:04 -0400 2008]
21 Aug 10:16
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
I'm in need of a serious drink...it seems to me that one of the elementary rules of politics is that you don't provoke your own government's demise to replace one parliamentary stalemate with another horse of the same colour! Hello.
The time to be pro-active on an election call is when you have the wind in your sails: polling trends are consistently upwardly solid and you can intuitively sense the political landscape shifting under your feet. Clearly, that is not happening now.
For the Prime Minister to even seriously consider visiting the G-G is folly of the highest order, IMHO. What does that say about Dion? If Stéphane "is not a leader" as our ads have consistently claimed, why aren't we at least ten to fifteen points ahead in the polls? Again, hello!
What does the prospect of voiding the September 8th and 22nd byelections say about our chances in those ridings? You can spin that one two different ways: either the party has polling that shows a broadbased polling breakthrough is in the offing and consequently breaking our own election law is essential to achieving a majority government. OR, you can spin it as trying to minimize the damage that will result from the byelections as far as the CPC is concerned by blending anticipated results into the mix of a general election campaign soufflé. ( Regrettably, I favour the second scenario.)
Our job as a government is to govern competently and effectively for as long as it can be stretched out. If the opposition parties want to take us on, let it be on their own dime. Harper should not be wearing it -- especially since he is far from sitting in a position of potential electoral strength. This pending decision by the PMO is political madness. It will produce another electoral stalemate with losing cards for a potentially winning CPC government: Harper could be returned with a minority but won't have Dion to kick around anymore. Smile, Dalton, smile. Harper will be gifting the LPC leadership to McGuinty and we all know what that will likely mean in a year to a year and a half...
In short, hang tough, wait it out and see what happens. Move your numbers up steadily and live to fight an election another day under, as the sovereignists would say, "winning conditions" for a CPC majority. That won't happen anytime soon if Harper continues on his foolhardy electoral path.
[updated Sat Aug 23 16:51:41 -0400 2008]
23 Aug 16:51
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After hearing and reading how much money Chretien had sent and is still being sent to China, the whole works of MP's and Senators should be fired and not re-elected. But as long as Dion is not Prime Minister an ELection can be called anytime, it is not my money. Chretien and his relatives companies should all be stripped from the TSE that would be Power Corporation and Bombardier, the continual parasite on the Public Purse.
Money for China what a complete joke, this is what happens when you have a Fool as Prime Minister for 13 years. Even Harper could not match this performance of mismanagement and corruption. Old Jean was always thinking of his own pockets and money that was not his to spend. what a fool in our history. Jean go join the "Thugs in Beijing" you have alot in comment. Chinese rulers are mentally deranged and unstable just like they showed at these Olympics. Chinese not welcomed to 2010 Games.
[updated Sun Aug 24 13:29:55 -0400 2008]
24 Aug 13:29
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Yes time has come to focus on the real Election, I would prefer it sooner than later, to block Dion and the Liberals (13 years of mismanagement and corrupt which will return if their elected) That is my opinion because I will never Vote Liberal, that has more to do with Raymond Chan in my Riding. But I want a fresh start at the following and redesign of Departments and Parliament.
1. Eliminate the Dictatorship system in Canada (Hedy Fry defender)
2. Eliminate Foreign Affairs and International Trade (Taxpayers money in the millions going to China under the Chretien Liberals
3. Eliminate CIDA
4. Immigration, CRA and Justice into one Department (to block tax cheats and criminals from other countries mainly Asia. Enforce the new LPGA English Rule unless your immigrating to Quebec.
5. Reform or Elimate the Senate ( Really are a group of lazy, dysfunctional individuals)
6. Force Chretien to return his Order of Canada and give it to Rycroft.
7. New Law - make it illegal to send taxpayers dollars to other countries.
8. Get rid of foreign workers in our Missions and Embassies it is a joke, namely China and Philippines I have experienced the lack of service at both.
9. Eliminate the Official Languages Act and Multiculturalism both are out of date and not realistic.
10. Did I miss anything?
[updated Tue Aug 26 14:18:57 -0400 2008]
26 Aug 14:18
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Foxer
Conservatives Surge Ahead in Quebec - (latest CROP poll)
Looks like the CPC is already off to a running start in quebec - probably one of the reasons that Harper wants to go now. The party has been climbing and is now ahead of the Bloc in support.
Here's the latest from quebec -
http://tinyurl.com/6htbjs
Here's a google translation for those who don't speak french:
Joel-Denis Bellavance
La Presse
Ottawa
The Conservative Party of Canada made a leap in Quebec in recent months. Results, the PCC and the Bloc Quebecois are virtually tied in voting intentions in Quebec. If elections were held today, troops Stephen Harper would win the support of 31% of Quebecers against 30% BQ Gilles Duceppe, reveals a CROP survey conducted on behalf of La Presse.
The Liberal Party Stéphane Dion ranked third with 20% of voting intentions, while the NDP of Jack Layton gets 14%, according to the coup probe conducted with 1,003 Quebecers from 14 to 24 August.
Result: Prime Minister Stephen Harper is preparing to trigger a general election by mid-October in a political context favorable to the Conservative Party in Quebec, despite a relatively difficult in terms of public relations, especially following the decision 'Abolish some programs to support arts and culture.
>>> See the complete results of the poll (PDF)
This survey is therefore likely to reinforce Stephen Harper in his intentions to convene Canadians to the polls this fall. Mr. Harper could call an election Friday, September 5, which would lead to a ballot Tuesday, October 14. Under normal circumstances, the election takes place on a Monday, but it happens that October 13 is a holiday.
The context has never been as favourable to the Conservatives in Quebec despite a difficult summer. The rate of satisfaction with the government back, and this coincides with rising support the Conservative Party. And Mr. Harper continues to be the preferred leader of Quebecers among all counts. It is understandable why Mr. Harper wants to have elections and we understand why Mr. Dion reluctance, "said yesterday Claude Gauthier, vice-chairman of the House of CROP poll.
Since the last coup probe CROP in June, support for the Conservative Party has surged five percentage points in Quebec, from 26% to 31%. The Bloc Quebecois harvest about him one percentage point higher than in June while the Liberal Party saw its support increase from 21% to 20%. The NDP has also cashed a decline in its support of three points.
This is certainly not through coups radiance of government. This is probably due to the weakness of the main opposition party, the Liberal Party and its leader Stéphane Dion. All this contributes to the current political context, "said Gauthier.
In the elections of January 2006, the Conservative Party won 10 seats in Quebec in obtaining 25% of votes. The Bloc Quebecois had put his hand out of 51 seats by collecting 42% of the votes, while the Liberal Party had to be content with 13 seats and 21% of votes. An independent MP, André Arthur, was also elected in the riding of Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, in the Quebec City region. The Quebec holds 75 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons.
Mr. Gauthier, it is clear that the Conservative Party could make gains at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois if it manages to maintain such support, especially as among francophones, the Conservative Party talonne the Bloc Quebecois in the intentions to vote. The troops Stephen Harper actually get 31% against 35% Bloc Quebecois. The Liberal Party must be content with 16% among francophones.
In the region of Quebec, the Conservative Party dominates with 46% while the Bloc Quebecois collects 25% and the Liberal Party 14%. In the Montreal area, the fight promises to be tight between the Bloc Quebecois (27%), the Parti Liberal (24%) and the Conservative Party (24%). Elsewhere in Quebec, the Conservative Party has a slight lead of two points on the Bloc Quebecois, 35% against 33%. The Liberal Party received only 17% of support.
This is not a tidal wave in Quebec, but there are counties currently held by the Bloc Quebecois, which will shift the Conservatives. It is assured they would do a better performance than last elections.
Another positive element for Stephen Harper on the eve of an election campaign, the rate of satisfaction with his government is on the rise in Quebec, from 46% in June to 52% in August. The dissatisfied are less numerous. They have risen from 51% of respondents in June to 42% in August.
Finally, Stephen Harper is seen by a greater proportion of Quebecers (35% of respondents) as the best prime minister. Only 15% of Quebecers believe that Stéphane Dion would make a better prime minister. Even Jack Layton ahead of the Liberal leader in terms of being the choice of 24% of Quebecers.
The margin of error of the poll is 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. However, the margin of error is higher for regional results.
[updated Wed Aug 27 16:38:00 -0400 2008]
27 Aug 16:38
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RonaldODowd
What about Plamondon?
Is he on the mark when he says that he suspects that Harper may have the numbers pointing to a majority win? Is Harper being clever in public by stating that he sees only the possibility of a minority win for either himself or Dion?
What do you think?
[updated Thu Aug 28 11:13:07 -0400 2008]
28 Aug 11:13
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West Coast D
I think that Canadians tune out the silliness and tune in to the issues we feel are important and how the different parties position themselves in regard to them.
The politicians are paying for our time and attention (with our money!!!) and if the level of integrity drops I don't give it to them.
[updated Fri Sep 12 16:30:07 -0400 2008]
12 Sep 16:30
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