Time for federal politicians to refocus (Nanos Sun Media Column)

Hi Nik,

I've been saying for an eternity that McCain will win in a close election. Sexism was subtly responsible for Hillary's demise while subtle racism will lead to Barack's underdoing, IMHO.

How will that translate in Canada? As a Conservative, I have to give Harper the edge should we go into an election -- the imcumbent government will go into a campaign that is Harper's to lose. If Harper does not make any major mistakes, we could squeak by with another minority mandate.

Dion's immense challenge is to convince the electorate that he is the agent of change. The dynamic of any election campaign is always one of change, to some extent. Dion has to roll the dice and hope that his burning themes catch on. If they do, he will form a minority government.

It will be close but the smart money is on Harper -- for the moment!

[updated Mon Aug 18 06:49:17 EDT 2008]

Nik as always your comments about the political situation in Canada, and what is happening in the USA are as a rule as close to the facts as one can get.There is no question that the outcome of the Presidential Election in the US will have aprofound effect on the results in Canada.
The way it is in Canada at the present is highly unsatisfactory,but most of the dissatisfaction and turmoil is driven by the Opposition, mainly the Liberals, for the simple fact that they cannot stomach the loss of their privileges in the last election. That is not to say that all is well with a Conservative Govt. By no means, too many turns and twists are made to compromise what should be a straight forward honest governing.

[updated Mon Aug 18 08:01:20 EDT 2008]

Nik:

As always, your post is once again thought-provoking. I think the federal Conservatives have been playing some rather naughty games in the most recent black comedy that our paliament has become. Whether the latest antics of the "in-out" scheme will make an inprint on the minds of Canadian voters is questionable. Most Canadians are still trying to cope with the lousy summer we've had east of the Ontario-Manitoba border, while the rest of the people out west are still trying to make the best of an otherwise wonderful summer. It's time to wade through the masses at WalMart to get the kids ready to go back to school, or start thinking about closing up the cottage except for a few Indian summer weekends after Labour Day. No one cares about federal politics at this time of year. My friends and colleagues are talking about the price of gas and the rising cost of groceries. Whether they can afford a Toyota Prius and if a Smart car should really be called a Silly car because it can only carry two people and a bag of groceries. So, don't underestimate a plan that addresses the concerns of the environment and our over-dependence on burning fossil fuels. I think the Conservatives will do so at their peril. Shift can happen. A Conservative attempt to paint the Liberal Green Shift as a joke may play well to their Alberta friends - but many Canadians may well be in a mood to listen.

I love your use of the "spanking" analogy. Of course, no modern parent would spank a child today unless the parent was driven to the absolute end of their rope, so what does that say about our politicians? Yes, I was ticked off with all the hand-sitting that the Liberals engaged in during those non-event confidence votes, and I have been extremely miffed with the Conservatives ever since they started breaking every rule in Communications 101. Harper and his cornies seem to think we are all morons, and the media can't be trusted. Both parties need a good kick in the arse. So maybe a fall federal election will do it. I sincerely hope so.

[updated Mon Aug 18 09:02:06 EDT 2008]

All I can say Nik is Bring it on.

[updated Mon Aug 18 09:43:11 EDT 2008]

Nik. After 4 weeks on the last topic , this is long overdo. Welcome back to all who have been missed . In order to refocus you would have had to be focused in the first place. The CPC has done everything to keep us from focusing on what they were up to. How many of us have been distracted by Bernier, Cadman and Elections Canada to actually look at the government's economic policy. Corporate tax cuts are at a level where we will soon be paying them to do business in this country if we are not already doing it. Defense spending of billions of dollars is not being accounted for. The largest budget in our history by Diamond Jim should have been a topic of discussion but no one has asked why he could not cut spending rather than reducing revenue. How long before we are back to deficit budgets and the debt starts to grow again. Obfuscation is an art used to keep us from seeing what has been going on and Harper is a modern day Picaso.The environment was hardly a blip on the screen for the Conservatives but we did not criticise that until Dion made it an issue. Health care should be our number one concern but we have ignored that issue with all the nonsense happening in Ottawa to distract us.The major concerns for the voters is not something Harper wants us to even discuss.Attack ads against Dion have made leadership the big issue in the media but our opinions about the real issues will have more effect on how we vote. I don't think the situation in the U.S. should enter our thoughts. We will deal with the new president after their election. Bringing it up here is just another attempt to distract us from what we should be concerned with. We should pay more attention to the real issues and less to the shenanigans taking place in Ottawa. I find it strange that Adscam that occured 10 to 15 years ago is still brought up . The fact that Chuck Guite was a Conservative appointed by Lyin Brain is never brought up by the right. No one wants to talk about the in and out scheme. Let's focus on what is important to us
and do something when the election is called. All candidates meetings are a great place to actually hear the public focus on our concerns.

[updated Mon Aug 18 12:06:02 EDT 2008]

The minority government syndrome, of the last number of years, is like a bad virus that has infected all aspects of government resulting in retarded political development. When Canadian elections are dependent to a small degree on the outcome of American elections, then, are we shedding a little of our sovereignty too ???? I would suggest the two main Canadian political parties are a little like a baby with varicose veins where the patient has developed, prematurely, the affirmities of age-----bad sight, increasing deafness and a deteriorating temper for what is broadly of interest for the Canadian electorate. To be facetious, if the Liberals were led by Harper, then a majority government would be assured ! ! !

[updated Mon Aug 18 12:29:00 EDT 2008]

While everyone is focused on the minutae of dirty politics Stephane Dion goes about his business in a steady focused approach. He knows that to get attention he needs to stay on message and let his MP's do the dirty work in the house and committees.

People are starting to take notice, His numbers are growing while Harper's are shrinking and with the economy in poor shape and getting worse the Liberals have a good hand to play.

Dion has his "news catcher" in Green shift and has been getting attention which is good.

[updated Mon Aug 18 18:26:57 EDT 2008]

I viewed almost every hour of the hearings of the
Standing committee on Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics and came away completely disgusted with the attitudes and behaviours of the Conservative members of that committee. I found them to be rude, disagreeable, defensive, suspicious, argumentative, obstructionist, unable to give straight answers, always in a defensive crouch, and meanspirited I think that these characteristics,unfortunately, are present in most Conservatives that I have witnessed in the House of Commons and I think of Peter Van Loan, Jason Kenney, Pierre Poilievre as well as Stephen Harper. This paranoia must be part of their DNA!

Last year the Conservatives published a 200 page handbook - a handbook which accidentally fell into the hands of the media and was much publicized - and distributed to all of its caucus members. This handbook gave instructions on how to disrupt parliamentary committees and create chaos. It instructed committee chairmen to select biased witnesses and instruct them how to perform in a committee. It gave the chairmen pointers on how to obstruct parliamentary business and to storm out of meetings if necessary. This handbook reflected a deliberate plan to create a chaotic and dysfunctional parliament and committee hearings. Now I find it outrageously ironic that Prime Minister Harper is now saying in a speech in Newfoundland Labrador last week that parliament has become so dysfunctional that he might have to go to the Governor-General and request the dissolution of parliament and force an election. And he purports to be a responsible leader of great integrity. Who does he think he's kidding?

True North

[updated Mon Aug 18 20:44:13 EDT 2008]

The effect of the American election - let me offer a contrasting point of view.

I think the effect of the upcoming American election will depend entirely on when our election occurs.

If it precedes the american election (ie happens in sep/oct) then i think american politics won't make any difference.

If they occur at the same time (november) and the 'race' overlaps, then i think dion will try to suggest obama and himself are similar. He will claim he brings change like obama does and paint a vision of a 'liberal/democrat' continent. But i think this will not work nearly as well as he thinks. First off - there's very little 'new' or 'inspiring' about the liberals, and secondly obama's platform looks more like harper's than dion's.

If they occur AFTER the american election - that could be where things get interesting.

The liberals have used the idea that harper is a bush puppet extensively to try to discredit harper. If obama wins, and i suspect harper and him will agree on much, that completely destroys the whole 'don't vote harper, he'll do what bush tells him' argument. It will actually weaken dion's position.

if mccain wins - then that strengthens people's fear of another 'bush-like' gov't. That will weaken harper's position.

Amusingly enough - I believe strongly that the parties in canada need to hope for the OTHER side's 'sister party' to win in the states. I believe that would actually result in the strongest impact on canadian elections.

[updated Tue Aug 19 15:41:00 EDT 2008]

I don't see the tory lovers here commenting on the fact Harper is trying the cover up of all cover ups by threatening to break his own law on election dates just to avoid the ethics committee hearings.
There is an amazing lack of ethics displayed by these guys but I wonder if Joe Q Public is going to pick up on that issue which is the reason Harpercrite floated that balloon.

[updated Thu Aug 21 10:16:04 EDT 2008]

I'm in need of a serious drink...it seems to me that one of the elementary rules of politics is that you don't provoke your own government's demise to replace one parliamentary stalemate with another horse of the same colour! Hello.

The time to be pro-active on an election call is when you have the wind in your sails: polling trends are consistently upwardly solid and you can intuitively sense the political landscape shifting under your feet. Clearly, that is not happening now.

For the Prime Minister to even seriously consider visiting the G-G is folly of the highest order, IMHO. What does that say about Dion? If Stéphane "is not a leader" as our ads have consistently claimed, why aren't we at least ten to fifteen points ahead in the polls? Again, hello!

What does the prospect of voiding the September 8th and 22nd byelections say about our chances in those ridings? You can spin that one two different ways: either the party has polling that shows a broadbased polling breakthrough is in the offing and consequently breaking our own election law is essential to achieving a majority government. OR, you can spin it as trying to minimize the damage that will result from the byelections as far as the CPC is concerned by blending anticipated results into the mix of a general election campaign soufflé. ( Regrettably, I favour the second scenario.)

Our job as a government is to govern competently and effectively for as long as it can be stretched out. If the opposition parties want to take us on, let it be on their own dime. Harper should not be wearing it -- especially since he is far from sitting in a position of potential electoral strength. This pending decision by the PMO is political madness. It will produce another electoral stalemate with losing cards for a potentially winning CPC government: Harper could be returned with a minority but won't have Dion to kick around anymore. Smile, Dalton, smile. Harper will be gifting the LPC leadership to McGuinty and we all know what that will likely mean in a year to a year and a half...

In short, hang tough, wait it out and see what happens. Move your numbers up steadily and live to fight an election another day under, as the sovereignists would say, "winning conditions" for a CPC majority. That won't happen anytime soon if Harper continues on his foolhardy electoral path.

[updated Sat Aug 23 16:51:41 EDT 2008]

After hearing and reading how much money Chretien had sent and is still being sent to China, the whole works of MP's and Senators should be fired and not re-elected. But as long as Dion is not Prime Minister an ELection can be called anytime, it is not my money. Chretien and his relatives companies should all be stripped from the TSE that would be Power Corporation and Bombardier, the continual parasite on the Public Purse.
Money for China what a complete joke, this is what happens when you have a Fool as Prime Minister for 13 years. Even Harper could not match this performance of mismanagement and corruption. Old Jean was always thinking of his own pockets and money that was not his to spend. what a fool in our history. Jean go join the "Thugs in Beijing" you have alot in comment. Chinese rulers are mentally deranged and unstable just like they showed at these Olympics. Chinese not welcomed to 2010 Games.

[updated Sun Aug 24 13:29:55 EDT 2008]

Yes time has come to focus on the real Election, I would prefer it sooner than later, to block Dion and the Liberals (13 years of mismanagement and corrupt which will return if their elected) That is my opinion because I will never Vote Liberal, that has more to do with Raymond Chan in my Riding. But I want a fresh start at the following and redesign of Departments and Parliament.

1. Eliminate the Dictatorship system in Canada (Hedy Fry defender)

2. Eliminate Foreign Affairs and International Trade (Taxpayers money in the millions going to China under the Chretien Liberals

3. Eliminate CIDA

4. Immigration, CRA and Justice into one Department (to block tax cheats and criminals from other countries mainly Asia. Enforce the new LPGA English Rule unless your immigrating to Quebec.

5. Reform or Elimate the Senate ( Really are a group of lazy, dysfunctional individuals)

6. Force Chretien to return his Order of Canada and give it to Rycroft.

7. New Law - make it illegal to send taxpayers dollars to other countries.

8. Get rid of foreign workers in our Missions and Embassies it is a joke, namely China and Philippines I have experienced the lack of service at both.

9. Eliminate the Official Languages Act and Multiculturalism both are out of date and not realistic.

10. Did I miss anything?

[updated Tue Aug 26 14:18:57 EDT 2008]

Conservatives Surge Ahead in Quebec - (latest CROP poll)

Looks like the CPC is already off to a running start in quebec - probably one of the reasons that Harper wants to go now. The party has been climbing and is now ahead of the Bloc in support.

Here's the latest from quebec -

http://tinyurl.com/6htbjs

Here's a google translation for those who don't speak french:

Joel-Denis Bellavance

La Presse

Ottawa

The Conservative Party of Canada made a leap in Quebec in recent months. Results, the PCC and the Bloc Quebecois are virtually tied in voting intentions in Quebec. If elections were held today, troops Stephen Harper would win the support of 31% of Quebecers against 30% BQ Gilles Duceppe, reveals a CROP survey conducted on behalf of La Presse.

The Liberal Party Stéphane Dion ranked third with 20% of voting intentions, while the NDP of Jack Layton gets 14%, according to the coup probe conducted with 1,003 Quebecers from 14 to 24 August.

Result: Prime Minister Stephen Harper is preparing to trigger a general election by mid-October in a political context favorable to the Conservative Party in Quebec, despite a relatively difficult in terms of public relations, especially following the decision 'Abolish some programs to support arts and culture.

>>> See the complete results of the poll (PDF)

This survey is therefore likely to reinforce Stephen Harper in his intentions to convene Canadians to the polls this fall. Mr. Harper could call an election Friday, September 5, which would lead to a ballot Tuesday, October 14. Under normal circumstances, the election takes place on a Monday, but it happens that October 13 is a holiday.

The context has never been as favourable to the Conservatives in Quebec despite a difficult summer. The rate of satisfaction with the government back, and this coincides with rising support the Conservative Party. And Mr. Harper continues to be the preferred leader of Quebecers among all counts. It is understandable why Mr. Harper wants to have elections and we understand why Mr. Dion reluctance, "said yesterday Claude Gauthier, vice-chairman of the House of CROP poll.

Since the last coup probe CROP in June, support for the Conservative Party has surged five percentage points in Quebec, from 26% to 31%. The Bloc Quebecois harvest about him one percentage point higher than in June while the Liberal Party saw its support increase from 21% to 20%. The NDP has also cashed a decline in its support of three points.

This is certainly not through coups radiance of government. This is probably due to the weakness of the main opposition party, the Liberal Party and its leader Stéphane Dion. All this contributes to the current political context, "said Gauthier.

In the elections of January 2006, the Conservative Party won 10 seats in Quebec in obtaining 25% of votes. The Bloc Quebecois had put his hand out of 51 seats by collecting 42% of the votes, while the Liberal Party had to be content with 13 seats and 21% of votes. An independent MP, André Arthur, was also elected in the riding of Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, in the Quebec City region. The Quebec holds 75 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons.

Mr. Gauthier, it is clear that the Conservative Party could make gains at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois if it manages to maintain such support, especially as among francophones, the Conservative Party talonne the Bloc Quebecois in the intentions to vote. The troops Stephen Harper actually get 31% against 35% Bloc Quebecois. The Liberal Party must be content with 16% among francophones.

In the region of Quebec, the Conservative Party dominates with 46% while the Bloc Quebecois collects 25% and the Liberal Party 14%. In the Montreal area, the fight promises to be tight between the Bloc Quebecois (27%), the Parti Liberal (24%) and the Conservative Party (24%). Elsewhere in Quebec, the Conservative Party has a slight lead of two points on the Bloc Quebecois, 35% against 33%. The Liberal Party received only 17% of support.

This is not a tidal wave in Quebec, but there are counties currently held by the Bloc Quebecois, which will shift the Conservatives. It is assured they would do a better performance than last elections.

Another positive element for Stephen Harper on the eve of an election campaign, the rate of satisfaction with his government is on the rise in Quebec, from 46% in June to 52% in August. The dissatisfied are less numerous. They have risen from 51% of respondents in June to 42% in August.

Finally, Stephen Harper is seen by a greater proportion of Quebecers (35% of respondents) as the best prime minister. Only 15% of Quebecers believe that Stéphane Dion would make a better prime minister. Even Jack Layton ahead of the Liberal leader in terms of being the choice of 24% of Quebecers.

The margin of error of the poll is 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. However, the margin of error is higher for regional results.

[updated Wed Aug 27 16:38:00 EDT 2008]

What about Plamondon?

Is he on the mark when he says that he suspects that Harper may have the numbers pointing to a majority win? Is Harper being clever in public by stating that he sees only the possibility of a minority win for either himself or Dion?

What do you think?

[updated Thu Aug 28 11:13:07 EDT 2008]

I think that Canadians tune out the silliness and tune in to the issues we feel are important and how the different parties position themselves in regard to them.

The politicians are paying for our time and attention (with our money!!!) and if the level of integrity drops I don't give it to them.

[updated Fri Sep 12 16:30:07 EDT 2008]